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Results for “Prognostic model”

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PubMed2003

Prognostic significance of reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction for prostate-specific antigen in metastatic prostate cancer: a nested study within CALGB 9583.

PURPOSE: To determine whether reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) to detect circulating prostate-specific antigen (PSA)-positive cells is a prognostic factor for survival in hormone refractory prostate cancer and to validate the prognostic importance of this test in relation to other known prognostic factors. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A single centralized laboratory received and analyzed whole blood for RT-PCR for PSA for a subset of patients enrolled on two Cancer and Leukemia Group B (CALGB) randomized trials (CALGB 9583 and CALGB 9480). Using 9583, a prognostic model was developed and an independent data set (CALGB 9480) was used to validate the fitted model. RESULTS: Of 162 patients in 9583, 91 (56%) patients were negative for RT-PCR for PSA and 71 (44%) patients were positive. The median survival time was 21 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 18 to 27 months) for RT-PCR-negative patients compared with 11 months (95% CI, 8 to 15 months) for RT-PCR-positive patients (P < or =.001). In multivariable analysis, the hazard ratio (HR) for death was 1.7 (95% CI, 1.2 to 2.4; P =.006) for positive RT-PCR patients compared with negative RT-PCR patients. A fitted model that incorporated RT-PCR for PSA and other factors was used to classify patients from 9480 into one of two risk groups: low or high. We observed good agreement between the observed and predicted survival probabilities for the two risk groups. CONCLUSION: RT-PCR to detect PSA-positive circulating cells is confirmed to be a significant prognostic factor of survival in patients with hormone refractory prostate cancer. This model could be used to stratify patients in randomized phase III trials.

Aged↗

PubMed1998

Factors predictive of survival after first relapse or progression in advanced epithelial ovarian carcinoma: a prediction tree analysis-derived model with test and validation groups.

OBJECTIVE: To identify factors predictive of overall survival after first relapse or primary progression in patients with advanced epithelial ovarian cancer. METHODS: "Tree-structured prediction of survival for censored survival data" was used to identify the independent prognostic factors in the test group (n = 352) who were the patients from the previously reported Canadian OV.8 trial. A prognostic model was developed using these factors and subjected to validation in the Canadian OV.4 trial cohort (n = 282). RESULTS: Based upon three factors, time from diagnosis to first recurrence or progression, tumor grade at diagnosis, and ECOG performance status at original diagnosis, three groups of patients were identified. These were labeled as good, intermediate, and poor prognosis with median survivals post relapse of 18 (12), 6 (5), and 1 (2) months, respectively. The figure in parentheses is the survival in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: These prognostic groupings enable us to recommend second-line treatment more logically. The patients in the poor prognosis group have such a limited survival that cancer shrinking therapy should not routinely be offered. In addition the use of the individual predictive factors as stratification factors will help to avoid erroneous conclusions about treatment efficacy.

Adult↗

PubMed2006

Genomic polymorphisms provide prognostic information in intermediate-risk acute myeloblastic leukemia.

Current prognostic factors for acute myeloblastic leukemia (AML) are not sufficient to accurately predict the group of patients in the intermediate-risk category who will successfully respond to treatment. Distinct patterns of inherited functional genomic polymorphisms might explain part of these heterogeneous prognoses. We used the allelic discrimination method to identify polymorphisms in GSTT1, SULT1C2, CDA, SXR (drug metabolic pathways), XPD, XPA, XPG, ERCC1, TOP2A (DNA repair), VEGF (angiogenesis), and MDR1 (multidrug resistance) genes in 110 adult patients with intermediate-risk AML, enrolled in the CETLAM-99 prospective trial. A multivariate prognostic model adjusted for age, white blood cell (WBC) count, French-American-British group, cytogenetics, MLL rearrangement, internal tandem duplication of FLT3 (FLT3-ITD), induction courses to achieve complete remission, and germline polymorphisms, was used to detect independent risk factors associated with clinical outcome. This analysis showed an increased risk of refractoriness to chemotherapy in the group of patients with XPA variant alleles (RR = 14; P = .02). In the same model, increased relapse risk was associated with SULT1C2 heterozygosity (RR = 4.1; P = .004), FLT3-ITD (RR 3.3; P = .003), and MDR1 variant alleles (RR = 2.4; P = .02). Adverse prognostic variables for overall survival were XPA (RR = 3.4; P = .02) and MDR1 (RR = 2.1; P = .02) variant alleles, and WBC count (RR = 2.1; P = .02). These findings might be useful in selecting risk-adapted treatment strategies in intermediate-risk AML.

Adult↗

PubMed1998

Hemodynamic profile in severe ARDS: results of the European Collaborative ARDS Study.

OBJECTIVE: Although the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) was identified as long as 30 years ago, potential therapeutic objectives have been defined from small series rather than large trials. Moreover, relationships between ARDS and hemodynamics are unclear. The European Collaborative ARDS Study was designed to identify factors influencing the pathogenesis, severity, and prognosis of ARDS. Analysis of the hemodynamic profiles collected during this study and of their contribution to the above-mentioned facets of ARDS is the focus of the present report. DESIGN: Prospective clinical study. SETTING: 38 European intensive care units (ICUs). PATIENTS AND METHODS: We collected 2758 sets of data from 586 patients, including baseline data, data on proven or suspected causes of ARDS differentiating direct and nondirect lung injury, and data on baseline status including multiple organ dysfunction (MOD) with differentiation of primary ARDS from ARDS secondary to severe systemic disorders. Events during follow-up were also recorded, including whether the acute respiratory failure did or did not improve after 24 h (groups A and B, respectively). When available, hemodynamic data were recorded at enrollment (day 0), on days 1-3, 7, 14, and 21, and at discharge or at the time of death in the ICU. RESULTS: Although the rate of pre-existing disease and the nature and rate of complications varied widely among etiologic categories, differences in the hemodynamic profile occurred only between primary and secondary ARDS. Both at inclusion and during the course of the illness, variables that were used to investigate Va/Q mismatch [arterial oxygen tension (PaO2, arterial oxygen saturation, right-to-left shunt, and the PaO2/fractional inspired oxygen (FIO2) ratio] predicted survival. High pulmonary artery pressure (PAP) and low systemic artery pressure (SAP) were also related to the prognosis. In the logistic regression model including hemodynamic and oxygen-related variables, however, the only independent predictors of survival were the ratio of right over left ventricular stroke work (RVSW/LVSW) and the PaO2/FIO2 ratio at admission. On day 2, the best prognostic model included: age [odds ratio (OR) = 1.04, p = 0.0004], opportunistic pneumonia as the cause of ARDS (OR = 3.2, p = 0.03), existence of MOD (OR = 1.9, p = 0.03), PaO2/FIO2 (OR = 0.96, p = 0.005), and RVSW/LVSW (OR = 25, p = 0.02). A high RVSW/LVSW ratio, high systolic PAP, low diastolic SAP, and low PaO2/FIO2, and increased right atrial pressure were negative prognostic indicators during follow-up. CONCLUSION: In addition to the cause of ARDS and the early time-course of lung function, a high systolic PAP and a low diastolic SAP were strong independent indicators of survival.

Adult↗

PubMed2006

Modelling 5-year functional outcome in a major traumatic injury survivor cohort.

AIM: To estimate associations between possible predictors of functional disability outcome at 5 years in a working adult population cohort of survivors of major traumatic injury and to develop a prognostic model of outcome. DESIGN: Population based retrospective cohort study. POPULATION: Persons who had experienced major traumatic injury (Injury Seventy Score >15) in the area of the former Yorkshire Regional Health Authority during the period 30 September 1988 to 1 October 1989 and who survived for 5 years (average 5.3 years). METHODS: The same interviewer saw each survivor at their home and used the OPCS Adult Disability Schedule to ascertain levels of functional disability. Disability scores for each survivor were then combined in accordance with the OPCS guidance to calculate a level of disability between 0 (no disability) to 10 (maximum disability). The OPCS level was then dichotomised with a cut-point at 4/5. Possible predictor and confounding variables from pre-injury, injury and post-injury periods were modelled in a logistic regression to identify those that predicted outcome level. Two reduced models were developed to allow early prognosis of late outcome. RESULTS: The full model correctly classified 91% of observed outcomes. Inpatient length of stay OR 1.031 (95% CI 1.014,1.048) per day predicted poorer 5-year outcome; Glasgow Coma Score OR 0.790(0.629,0.992) per 1 point increase; stay in Intensive Care Unit OR 0.931 (0.877,0.987) per day; attainment of degree-level education OR 0.014 (0.000,0.707); single civil status OR 0.110 (0.013,0.908); being taken initially to a hospital with a neurosurgical facility OR 0.064(0.010,0.420); being in paid work during the 2 weeks before index injury OR 0.093(0.009,0.969) predicted better 5-year disability outcome. Two reduced models were constructed that included a simple set of variables, one of these models excluded any rehabilitation variables but still correctly classified 85% of the observed outcomes. CONCLUSION: As well as level of traumatic brain injury (TBI) and total inpatient stay, Pre-injury educational attainment and employment, civil status, immediate care in a hospital with a neurosurgical facility and stay in an Intensive Care Unit determined 5-year outcome. It is possible to efficiently predict outcome at an early stage. Previous work on predictors of disablement have suffered from large selection and attrition biases.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2005

Lack of a centre effect in UK renal units: application of an artificial neural network model.

BACKGROUND: Dialysis centre effect has been suggested to influence survival in end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients. Few studies over the past decade have commented on the existence of the centre effect using logistic regression models. METHODS: We used high quality prospectively collected data from the UK Renal Registry (UKRR) and created an artificial neural network model to predict mortality within 1 year in this cohort. We used a multitude of demographic variables including co-morbodities as well as relevant laboratory data to create a prognostic model. RESULTS: A highly efficient model for predicting 1 year mortality was created after restricting the model to use demographic and case-enriched data [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) = 0.974]. The addition of the dialysis centre code and centre size as input variables did not add to the efficiency of the model (AUROC = 0.962). Moreover, dialysis centre code or size alone was not predictive of mortality when applied to an artificial neuronal network architecture (AUROC = 0.649 and 0.628). CONCLUSION: Residual effects in previous studies may have been due to the non-linear nature of the data and complex intervariable relationships. Centre size and other centre-related factors have no impact on survival on ESRD.

Aged↗

PubMed2025

Finerenone for Heart Failure and Risk Estimated by the PREDICT-HFpEF Model: A Secondary Analysis of FINEARTS-HF.

IMPORTANCE: Patients with heart failure (HF) and mildly reduced ejection fraction (HFmrEF) or preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) have a spectrum of risk, and the effect of therapies may vary by risk. OBJECTIVES: To validate the Prognostic Models for Mortality and Morbidity in HFpEF (PREDICT-HFpEF) in the phase 3 randomized clinical trial Finerenone Trial to Investigate Efficacy and Safety Superior to Placebo in Patients With Heart Failure (FINEARTS-HF) and to evaluate the effect of finerenone, compared with placebo, across the spectrum of risk in these patients. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The FINEARTS-HF trial was conducted across 653 sites in 37 countries. Participants were adults 40 years and older with symptomatic HF and left ventricular EF of 40% or greater randomized between September 2020 and January 2023. INTERVENTION: Finerenone (titrated to 20 mg or 40 mg) or placebo. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The 3 PREDICT-HFpEF risk scores for the composite outcome of cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization, cardiovascular death, and all-cause death, respectively, were calculated. Predicted risk was compared with observed outcomes. Model performance was assessed using the Harrell C statistic. The rates of the predicted outcomes (plus the composite of cardiovascular death and worsening HF events, which was the primary end point in the trial) were examined according to quintiles of risk score, as was the effect of finerenone according to risk quintiles. RESULTS: A total of 6001 patients (mean [SD] age, 72 [9.6] years; 3269 male [54.5%]) were randomized in the FINEARTS-HF trial. The C statistics for cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization, cardiovascular death, and all-cause death at 2 years were 0.71 (95% CI, 0.69-0.72), 0.68 (95% CI, 0.66-0.71), and 0.69 (95% CI, 0.67-0.71), respectively. The risk of the composite outcomes was approximately 8- to 10-fold higher in those in the highest compared with the lowest risk quintile. The relative risk reduction with finerenone compared with placebo was consistent across the spectrum of risk for all outcomes examined (eg, interaction P value for primary outcome = .24). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Results of the FINEARTS-HF randomized clinical trial demonstrate that the PREDICT-HFpEF models performed well in terms of calibration and discrimination. Baseline risk did not modify the benefit of finerenone. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04435626.

Aged↗

PubMed2026

Methylation-Associated Differentiation Features Define Biological and Prognostic Heterogeneity in CMS4 Colorectal Cancer.

Consensus molecular subtype 4 (CMS4) colorectal cancer (CRC) is associated with an aggressive clinical course and poor survival, yet the biological basis of heterogeneity within this subtype remains incompletely understood. DNA methylation is an epigenetic mechanism involved in transcriptional regulation, cellular differentiation, and colorectal tumorigenesis. Here, we integrated single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq), bulk data, and promoter DNA methylation data to characterize CMS4-associated cancer cell states and methylation-related features. Using the scAB algorithm, we integrated scRNA-seq with bulk CMS4 data and identified CMS4-related cells distributed across multiple patients. Single-cell analyses of cell-cell communication and transcriptional regulation revealed a CMS4-related cancer cell population characterized by macrophage migration inhibitory factor (MIF)-centered intercellular communication, enhanced caudal type homeobox 1 (CDX1) and Kruppel-like factor 5 (KLF5) regulon activity, and gene modules enriched in differentiation-related pathways. CytoTRACE analysis further stratified CMS4 cancer cells into poorly and well-differentiated states, yielding 802 differentially expressed genes (DEGs). Linking these differentiation-associated DEGs with bulk expression and promoter methylation data identified 218 methylation-associated DEGs showing significant inverse methylation expression correlations, suggesting a link between differentiation-related heterogeneity and promoter methylation. Univariable Cox regression followed by LASSO regression further prioritized eight genes for construction of the methylation and differentiation-related prognostic model (MeDiff-PM). MeDiff-PM consistently stratified overall survival in the TCGA CMS4 cohort and two independent validation cohorts, with cutoff-independent continuous Cox analyses further supporting its prognostic association across cohorts. And MeDiff-PM remained prognostically significant after adjustment for available clinical variables. High MeDiff-PM risk scores were associated with activation of P53, WNT, and ubiquitin-mediated proteolysis pathways and with consistent predicted drug response differences for compounds across three CMS4 cohorts. While individual in silico knockout analysis suggested links between MeDiff-PM genes and metallothionein-related and immune-associated transcriptional responses. Collectively, these findings indicate that methylation-associated differentiation features represent a molecular dimension of intra-CMS4 heterogeneity and provide a biologically informed framework for prognostic stratification within CMS4 CRC.

Humans↗

PubMed2005

A gender-based score system predicts the clinical outcome of patients with early B-cell chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

To facilitate the development of a prognostic model for early B-cell chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), the Gruppo Italiano Malattie EMatologiche Maligne dell'Adulto (GIMEMA) proposes its multi-institutional effort as a working model. In total, 1138 newly diagnosed Binet stage A patients managed over the last 10 years outside the setting of clinical trials according to a "wait and see" policy form the basis of the present study aimed at investigating prognostic variables affecting disease progression, a surrogate endpoint for overall survival. A 3-stage risk system, simply obtained by summing the variables that proved significant in the multivariate analysis (i.e. short lymphocyte doubling time, advanced Rai substage, high peripheral blood lymphocytosis), is proposed. Clear-cut differences in the 10 year progression-free survival (PFS) were observed among patients scoring 0 (low risk), 1 (intermediate risk), 2-3 (high risk): 67.8, 41.0 and 24.8%, respectively (P<0.0001). The results of the Medical Research Council (MRC) suggesting a better clinical outcome for females prompted us to verify such a gender-related difference within our prognostic categories. Because changes in PFS only reflected gender for patients scoring 0 (P=0.04), the following prognostic subgroups are proposed: (1) females scoring 0; (2) males scoring 0; (3) patients scoring 1-3 whatever gender (10 year PFS: 76.2, 61.4 and 37.8%; P<0.00001). Our long-term database provides an adequate patient sample to generate a generalized risk stratification model based on clinical data. The indolent clinical outcome of women with early CLL is also supported by the higher frequency of the immunoglobulin heavy-chain variable (IgVH) mutational status and lower proportion of 17p and 11q deletions found in such a patient subset in the MRC CLL4 trial.

Adult↗

PubMed2001

Stage I non-seminomatous germ-cell tumours of the testis: identification of a subgroup of patients with a very low risk of relapse.

There is no consensus about a reproducible prognostic model capable of distinguishing between clinical stage I non-seminomatous germ cell tumour (NSGCT) carrying a high and low risk of relapse. The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic value of histological parameters in patients with stage I NSGCT undergoing surveillance after orchiectomy. We retrospectively evaluated tumour specimens from 88 consecutive stage I NSGCT patients undergoing surveillance in our institution between 1984 and 1996. 24 patients relapsed (27%). Multivariate analysis singled out vessel invasion (VI) (relative risk (RR)=3.8; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.4-10.4) and the presence of mature teratoma (RR= 0.2; 95% CI 0.1-0.6) as independently correlated with relapse-free survival (RFS). Patients can be classified accordingly into three prognostic groups with a low (27 patients with mature teratoma but without VI), intermediate (34 patients with both VI and mature teratoma or with neither VI or mature teratoma) and a high risk (23 patients with VI, but without mature teratoma) of relapse. Relapse rates in these three groups were 0%, 29% (95% CI: 23-35%) and 61% (95% CI: 55-67%), respectively. This prognostic index, based on two standard pathological parameters, identified a subgroup with a very low risk of relapse that represents approximately one third of stage I patients. Patients who belong to this subgroup should be managed by surveillance only, instead of retroperitoneal lymph node dissection (RPLND) or adjuvant chemotherapy.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2001

Cystic fibrosis and bronchiectasis: selection, timing, and outcome.

Of the nearly 30,000 Cystic Fibrosis (CF) patients alive in the United States, more than 300 die each year. Of CF deaths at least 75% are from respiratory failure due to bronchiectasis. CF patients make up about 40% of the patients undergoing bilateral transplant. Because of the shortage of donor organs relative to the demand for them, it is important to choose candidates who are in the "transplant window.'' International criteria have been developed to assist in proper selection of potential candidates, but new data suggest that some refinement of current criteria may improve this process. Appropriate prognostic models, however, are not yet completely validated. Bronchiectasis patients are usually evaluated according to the same protocols as CF patients because no large studies exist that would allow us to derive separate prognostic indicators. Outcomes for CF patients are comparable to those for other diagnoses, except in the case of living donor recipients, which are slightly lower. CF patients may face particular issues following transplant-like infections and some immunosuppression complications possibly related to their underlying disease process. In addition, CF patients seem to be at particular risk of posttransplant lymphoproliferative disorder.

Journal Article↗

PubMed2026

EMPEROR-Preserved Risk Model and Outcomes in the FINEARTS-HF Trial: A Prespecified Secondary Analysis of FINEARTS-HF.

IMPORTANCE: Patients with heart failure (HF) and mildly reduced ejection fraction (HFmrEF) or preserved EF (HFpEF) show substantial heterogeneity in prognosis. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the performance of biomarker-driven prognostic models derived from the Empagliflozin Outcome Trial in Patients With Chronic Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction (EMPEROR-Preserved) Trial in the Finerenone Trial to Investigate Efficacy and Safety Superior to Placebo in Patients With Heart Failure (FINEARTS-HF) and to examine whether baseline risk modified the therapeutic effect of finerenone. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This is a prespecified secondary analysis of the FINEARTS-HF trial, which was conducted across 653 sites in 37 countries among adults aged 40 years and older with symptomatic HF and left ventricular EF (LVEF) of 40% or greater. Patients were randomized between September 2020 and January 2023, and data analysis for this study was conducted from September to October 2025. The median (IQR) follow-up period was 32 (23-37) months. INTERVENTION: Finerenone (titrated to 20 mg or 40 mg) or placebo. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: EMPEROR-Preserved risk scores for the outcomes of first HF hospitalization or cardiovascular death, cardiovascular death, and all-cause death were calculated in FINEARTS-HF using models incorporating N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T, New York Heart Association functional class, history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and diabetes, insulin use, and-depending on outcome-age, hemoglobin and albumin levels, HF duration, time from prior HF hospitalization, and sodium-glucose transporter 2 inhibitor use. Estimated risks were compared with observed event rates, and model performance was assessed using Harrell C statistic. Treatment effects were evaluated across risk quintiles (Q1 to Q5) and across the continuous risk distribution. RESULTS: Among 6001 patients (mean [SD] age, 72.0 [9.6] years; 2732 [45.5%] women; 3003 randomized to finerenone and 2998 randomized to placebo), the EMPEROR-Preserved risk model estimated risk of outcomes, with Q5 vs Q1 hazard ratios (HRs) of 10.49 (95% CI, 8.14-13.52) for the composite of HF hospitalization or cardiovascular death and 13.47 (95% CI, 8.79-20.64) for cardiovascular death. The model demonstrated good discrimination. The treatment effect of finerenone was consistent across risk quintiles for first HF hospitalization or cardiovascular death (Q1: HR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.58-1.49]; Q2: HR, 1.04 [95% CI, 0.76-1.43]; Q3: HR, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.62-1.07]; Q4: HR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.65-1.01]; and Q5: HR, 0.88 [95% CI, 0.74-1.05]; P for interaction = .68) and remained uniform across the continuous risk spectrum. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The EMPEROR-Preserved risk models demonstrated good performance in FINEARTS-HF. Baseline risk did not modify the relative treatment effect of finerenone. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04435626.

Humans↗

PubMed1992

Prognostic factors in hormone-resistant progressing cancer of the prostate.

In 224 consecutive patients with hormone-resistant prostatic cancer referred to 2 European Cancer Centres for palliation of painful bone metastases the one year survival for all patients was 24% (2-year survival: 7%). The median survival was 8 months. In univariate analyses the following prognostic factors were identified: performance status, serum creatinine, alkaline phosphatase, duration of response to primary hormone treatment, degree of bone scan involvement and hemoglobin. Multivariate analyses confirmed the four first parameters to be independent factors. A prognostic model was established (no or one risk factors vs 2 risk factors vs 3 or 4 risk factors) based on performance status, creatinine, alkaline phosphatase and hormone response duration. The median survival of these groups was 10 months, 6 months and 3 months, respectively. This model proved to be discriminative in an external data set of 214 patients with hormone-resistant prostatic cancer entered in two prospective trials. The above differences in outcome between readily and simply defined prognostic groups are greater than the differences one can realistically hope to produce using new treatment strategies. These prognostic factors should be taken into account both in the design and interpretation of clinical studies dealing with the treatment of hormone-resistant progressing prostatic cancer and painful bone metastases.

Adult↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Clinical and immunohistochemical analysis of patients with unknown primary tumour. A search for prognostic factors in UPT.

BACKGROUND: The unknown primary tumour (UPT) is an intriguing clinical finding in approximately 5% of all newly diagnosed patients with cancer. To evaluate a correlation between the specific immunohistochemical alterations in UPT cells and the unique clinical features of UPT patients, to define the natural history of UPT and to verify prognostic factors, we undertook a detailed clinical and immunohistochemical analysis of patients with the diagnosis of adenocarcinoma of UPT. RESULTS: Patients with UPT present with a short history and have a poor prognosis. Univariate analysis was performed with clinical, biological and immunohistochemical variables. Patients with a higher age (>60 years), a poor performance score (2-3), liver metastases or more than two organ sites involved, or patients with elevated LDH-levels, were found to have worse prognosis. We confirm that the prognostic model published by Culine is a valuable model for the prediction of prognosis in patients with UPT. Immunohistochemical detection of proliferation (MIB-1), p53, vascular endothelial growth factor-A, CD34, CD44v6 and Her2neu indicated that these factors were of no prognostic value. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, patients with UPT have a very poor median prognosis of 12 weeks. Prognostically favourable factors are young age, good performance status, no liver metastases and normal LDH level. We found no relationship with immunohistochemical factors.

Adenocarcinoma↗

PubMed2002

Prognostic factors of clinically stage I and II oral tongue carcinoma-A comparative study of stage, thickness, shape, growth pattern, invasive front malignancy grading, Martinez-Gimeno score, and pathologic features.

PURPOSE: This study aims at evaluation of the different prognostic models, including stage, tumor thickness, shape, malignancy grading of tumor invasive front, Martinez-Gimeno score, and pathologic features in the prediction of subclinical nodal metastasis, local recurrence, and survival of early T1 and T2 oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma. The results will have important implication for the management of patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Seventy-two clinically T1 and T2 glossectomy specimens of oral tongue carcinoma were serially sectioned in 3-mm thickness for the evaluation of various pathologic features. The prognostic value in the prediction of subclinical nodal metastasis, local recurrence, and survival of different models were compared. RESULTS: Among all the tumor parameters and predictive models being evaluated, tumor thickness was the only significant factor that had significant predictive value for subclinical nodal metastasis, local recurrence, and survival. With the use of 3-mm and 9-mm division, tumor of up to 3-mm thickness has 8% subclinical nodal metastasis, 0% local recurrence, and 100% 5-year actuarial disease-free survival; tumor thickness of more than 3 mm and up to 9 mm had 44% subclinical nodal metastasis, 7% local recurrence, and 76% 5-year actuarial disease-free survival; tumor of more than 9 mm had 53% subclinical nodal metastasis, 24% local recurrence, and 66% 5-year actuarial disease-free survival. CONCLUSIONS: Tumor thickness should be considered in the management planning of patients with early oral tongue carcinoma.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1990

Proposal for a simple synthesis prognostic staging system in chronic myelogenous leukemia.

PURPOSE: Several prognostic models or staging systems have been published that identify different risk groups in patients with Philadelphia chromosome (Ph)-positive chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML). The aims of this study were (1) to test, in an independent population, the prognostic reproducibility of these staging systems; and (2) to develop a synthesis staging system that could be easily applied in clinical practice. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 406 patients with newly diagnosed Ph-positive CML were evaluated by the four published staging systems of Tura, Cervantes, Sokal, and our group. The proposed synthesis staging system was developed based on the most consistent prognostic characteristics, and the presence or absence of accelerated disease features at diagnosis. The staging systems were compared according to survival outcome, as well as by looking for differences of survival outcomes within a specific stage of a defined system, when patients in this stage were subclassified by a second staging system. RESULTS: Whereas the staging system of Cervantes et al identified only two prognostic groups (median survivals of 49 versus 40 months; p = 0.01), the remaining three staging systems were able to segregate patients into stage 1, 2, and 3 risk groups with respective median survivals of 56 to 57, 41 to 42, and 28 to 36 months, respectively (p less than 0.001 to p less than 0.002). The new proposed staging system, based on the existence of zero to one (stage 1), two (stage 2), or three or more unfavorable (stage 3) characteristics, or the presence of accelerated disease features (stage 4), categorized patients into four prognostic groups with median survivals of 56, 45, 30, and 30 months, respectively (p less than 0.001), the latter stage (stage 4) being associated with a higher one-year mortality rate (29%). The synthesis staging system was also able to subclassify patients within most of Tura's and Sokal's stages into significantly different prognostic groups by survival outcome. CONCLUSION: The predictive prognostic capacity of three of the four published staging systems was confirmed in this independent or test population. The new proposed staging system was superior to the staging systems of Tura and Sokal in identifying different prognostic subgroups.

Humans↗

PubMed1996

Predicting five-year outcome for patients with cutaneous melanoma in a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: In numerous studies tumor thickness has been shown to be the most important prognostic factor for patients with localized cutaneous melanoma. However, to our knowledge there are no population-based studies analyzing the prognosis of patients living in the United States with cutaneous melanoma. METHODS: A prognostic model was developed with death as an outcome for 548 patients from Connecticut with localized cutaneous melanoma. Only patients with invasive melanoma who either died of the disease or were followed-up at least five years were studied. Fourteen pathologic parameters (histologic type of melanoma, Clark level, microscopic satellites, histologic regression, tumor thickness [Breslow], ulceration, vascular invasion, mitotic rate per mm2, tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes, radial vs. vertical growth phase, solar elastosis, co-existing nevus, lymphocytic response, and pigmentation) and three clinical variables (age, sex, and anatomic site) were analyzed using logistic regression. RESULTS: After univariate analysis, 10 pathologic variables showed prognostic significance: histologic type (nodular and "other" types only), Clark level, microscopic satellites, regression (protective), tumor thickness, ulceration, vascular invasion, mitotic rate, vertical growth phase, and solar elastosis (protective). In the final model employing multivariate analysis, only tumor thickness and mitotic rate continued to have independent predictive value. CONCLUSIONS: In this population-based study of 548 patients in Connecticut, tumor thickness was the most significant prognostic factor for survival of patients with localized cutaneous melanoma. Other prognostic factors studied to date have not been conclusively verified as providing any additional information beyond that of tumor thickness.

Adult↗

PubMed2005

Comparison of 1- and 2-year screening intervals for women undergoing screening mammography.

We compared the long-term impact of 1- and 2-year screening mammography intervals using prognostic, screening, and outcome information for women aged 50-74 years obtained from the Screening Mammography Program of British Columbia in two time periods, prior to 1997 (policy of annual mammography) and after 1997 (biennial mammography). Survival was estimated for both periods using a prognostic model and the expected rate of interval and screen-detected cancers. The likelihood of a screen-detected cancer with annual screening was 2.32 per thousand screens and with biennial screening was 3.32 per thousand screens. The prognostic profile of screen-detected cancers was better than that of interval cancers. Among both screen-detected and interval cancers, the prognostic profiles with annual and biennial screening were similar. The estimated breast cancer-specific survival rates for women undergoing annual and biennial screening mammography were 95.2 and 94.6% at 5 years, and 90.4 and 89.2% at 10 years, respectively. Annual compared to biennial mammography was associated with a 1.2% increase in the estimated 10-year breast cancer-specific survival for women aged 50-74 years, diagnosed with invasive breast cancer after screening programme attendance.

Aged↗