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PubMed1989

Global surveillance and forecasting of AIDS.

The short-term forecasting of future AIDS cases has been attempted by statistical extrapolations of the observed curve of reported AIDS cases. In areas where such reporting is very incomplete or has only recently started, extrapolation is not possible and an epidemiologically-based forecasting model has been developed to estimate the annual number of AIDS cases which may have occurred and to project the annual number and distribution of AIDS cases for up to ten years. This model, which relies on the current understanding of the epidemiology and natural history of HIV infections and on the available HIV serologic survey data, is used to provide estimates and short-term projections of AIDS cases for the USA, Europe, Africa and the world. Because of the very long (mean of 8-9 years) incubation period between HIV infection and the development of AIDS, new cases over the next five years will be mostly derived from persons who became infected with HIV in or before 1987. WHO has estimated that 5-10 million persons worldwide were infected with HIV in 1987. Based on the lower estimate of 5 million, the cumulative number of AIDS cases which can be projected for the end of 1991 is over one million, and for the mid-to-late 1990s could reach 2 to 3 million. HIV/AIDS will therefore be an increasing public health problem throughout the world. Health care systems everywhere will have to be strengthened to respond to this large toll of disease and death due to AIDS.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed1988

Dispersal of Culex quinquefasciatus from a dairy in southern California.

The dispersal of Culex quinquefasciatus was studied near Norco, California in a periurban situation of southern California. Concurrent studies indicated that host-seeking females were most active up to one hour after sunset. A mark-release-recapture technique was used to document a mean distance traveled of 0.91 km in 12 hr (the first flight period) and a cumulative distance of 1.27 km after 36 hr (following the second flight period). Nearly 0.32% of 47,750 marked females were recaptured. A majority of the population moved with the prevailing wind. Unmarked females were captured at all trapping locations in the study.

Animals↗
PubMed1995

Differences in mortality by housing tenure and by car access from the OPCS Longitudinal Study.

Housing tenure and household access to a car are useful indicators of socio-economic status. They are simple to collect and process in censuses and surveys, and are effective discriminators of mortality. They can be used for all members of the population including children, women and the retired. These are groups where socio-economic differences in mortality based on occupation can be difficult to interpret. Using Longitudinal Study data, this article presents an analysis of differences in male and female mortality in England and Wales in the 1980s according to household tenure and car access. The findings are compared with those observed in the 1970s. Mortality levels are lower in the 1980s for all groups. The analyses suggest that differences across tenure and car access groups have increased in relative and absolute terms, particularly for those under 65.

Adult↗
PubMed1997

The social determinants of the decline of life expectancy in Russia and eastern Europe: a lifestyle explanation.

This paper examines the social origins of the rise in adult mortality in Russia and selected Eastern European countries. Three explanations for this trend are considered: (1) Soviet health policy, (2) social stress, and (3) health lifestyles. The socialist states were generally characterized by a persistently poor mortality performance as part of a long-term process of deterioration, with particularly negative outcomes for the life expectancy of middle-aged, male manual workers. Soviet-style health policy was ineffective in dealing with the crisis, and stress per se does not seem to be the primary cause of the rise in mortality. Although more research is needed, the suggestion is made that poor health lifestyles--reflected especially in heavy alcohol consumption, and also in smoking, lack of exercise, and high-fat diets--are the major social determinant of the upturn in deaths.

Adult↗
PubMed1997

[Prophylactic antibiotics in acute pancreatitis. Results from a consensus conference].

Pancreatic infection is the leading cause of death from acute pancreatitis. Patients with severe necrotizing pancreatitis are most at risk. Early dynamic computed tomography and percutaneous fine-needle aspiration microbiology of areas of necrosis enable early diagnosis. Several studies has been undertaken in order to investigate the type of bacteria and the concentration reached in pancreatic tissue by different antibiotics. Nevertheless, up to now only three clinical trials of prophylactic antibiotics in acute pancreatitis has been reported. In the IV meeting of the Spanish Association for the Study of the Pancreas, a consensus conference took place with this topic.

Acute Disease↗
PubMed1993

Quantification of myocardium at risk and detection of reperfusion by dynamic vectorcardiographic ST segment monitoring in a pig occlusion-reperfusion model.

OBJECTIVE: The aim was to investigate whether continuous computerized vectorcardiographic monitoring of absolute spatial ST vector magnitude (ST-VM) and spatial ST change vector magnitude (STC-VM) during coronary occlusion could be used to estimate the size of myocardium at risk; and also to test whether reperfusion could be distinguished from sustained occlusion by continuous monitoring of ST vector alterations. METHODS: Computerised vectorcardiographic monitoring via Frank leads was applied in a closed chest occlusion-reperfusion pig model. Coronary occlusion over 24 h was produced in 20 animals by injecting a 2 mm ball into the left anterior descending coronary artery (n = 7), the right coronary artery (n = 8), and the left circumflex coronary artery (n = 5). Another 31 pigs were reperfused by retraction of the ball after 30 (n = 10), 60 (n = 15), or 90 (n = 6) min of left anterior descending artery occlusion. The extent of the myocardium at risk was measured by autoradiography. RESULTS: Seven animals were excluded. Irrespective of occluded coronary artery the relative parameters STC-VM over the first 30 min of occlusion correlated closely with area at risk, that is, the mean STC-VM between 10 and 30 min of occlusion (r = 0.78 p < 0.001). The absolute parameter ST vector magnitude (ST-VM) did not reflect ischaemia in 16/44 animals and did not correlate significantly with area at risk. The weight of myocardium at risk (MAR) was predictable from STC-VM: MAR weight (measured) = 0.97 x MAR weight (predicted) + 0.26 (g), r = 0.81, p < 0.001. STC-VM decline rate, time to STC-VM plateau, and cumulated sum plots of STC-VM were all able to distinguish reliably between reperfused animals and those with permanent occlusion. A paradoxical increase in STC-VM - "reperfusion peak" - was detected in 17/31 (55%) of the animals. This phenomenon was related to large amount of myocardium at risk or to a long occlusion time. CONCLUSION: Dynamic vectorcardiographic ST monitoring provides adequate estimation of myocardium at risk and enables detection of reperfusion in experimental myocardial ischaemia.

Animals↗
PubMedDate not supplied

[Dynamic pancreatography: the diagnosis of pancreatic necrosis and the identification of the risk factors of severity].

BACKGROUND: Dynamic pancreatography (DP) can establish the development of tissue damage and demonstrate pancreatic necrosis (PN). OBJECTIVE: To prospectively evaluate the usefulness of DP in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP), analyzing its capabilities for determining the incidence of necrosis, and as a prognostic predictor. MATERIAL AND METHODS: All patients with AP seen at our department during 4 years were included. All patients were scheduled to DP. Findings were classified in five groups: I, interstitial AP; II, secondary fluid collections; III, peripancreatic necrosis; IV, pancreatic necrosis < 50% and pancreatic necrosis > 50%. Also included for analysis were: demographic variables, etiology, APACHE-II score, and Ranson's signs; when infection was suspected, cultures were done. PD and operative findings were correlated to calculate sensibility (S), specificity (Sp), positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV), and the diagnostic accuracy (DA) of the test. Correlation between severity/mortality and morphologic alterations according to the classified group were also performed. RESULTS: 244 patients. Biliary associated pancreatitis in 47% and alcohol induced in 37%. DP in 207 patients showed, 34 patients in group I; 36 in group II, 67 in group III, 47 and 60 in groups IV and V, respectively. Secondary pancreatic infection was present in 48%. One hundred seventy-two patients underwent surgery; the surgical indication was to interrupt the pathogenesis of complications in 52%. DP correlated with the prognostic signs and APACHE-II score as predictors of complications with an overall (S) of 93%, (Sp) 98%, (PPV) 91%, (NPV) 98%, and (DA) 97%. Greater scores values are all directly proportional with PD necrosis findings (P < 0.05). There was not PD related morbidity. CONCLUSIONS: We found correlation between PD classification and prognostic factors. Morphologic alterations were accurately identified. PD as preoperative work-up allows surgeons design operative strategies and as is useful follow-up of the patients after necrosectomy.

APACHE↗
PubMed2004

Clinician-initiated HIV risk reduction intervention for HIV-positive persons: Formative Research, Acceptability, and Fidelity of the Options Project.

OBJECTIVE: To conduct research on levels and dynamics of HIV risk behavior among HIV-positive patients in clinical care, use this research to design a clinician-initiated HIV prevention intervention for HIV-positive patients, and evaluate the acceptability of the intervention to clinicians and patients and the fidelity with which it can be delivered by clinicians. METHODS: Study 1 (elicitation research) involved focus groups with HIV-positive patients and HIV care clinicians to understand the dynamics of HIV risk behavior among HIV-positive patients and how to integrate HIV prevention into routine clinical care. Study 2 (acceptability and intervention fidelity) involved the evaluation of 1455 medical visits by experimental intervention patients (N = 231) for acceptability and fidelity of the clinician-initiated HIV prevention intervention. RESULTS: Elicitation research with patients and clinicians identified critical HIV prevention information, motivation, and behavioral skills deficits in HIV-positive patients as well as risky sexual behavior. These findings were integrated into a theory-based HIV prevention intervention initiated by clinicians that proved acceptable to clinicians and patients and that clinicians were able to implement with adequate fidelity. CONCLUSION: HIV prevention interventions by clinicians treating HIV-positive patients can and should be integrated into routine clinical care.

Connecticut↗