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At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
PubMed2000

An integrated risk model of a drinking-water-borne cryptosporidiosis outbreak.

A dynamic risk model is developed to track the occurrence and evolution of a drinking-water-borne cryptosporidiosis outbreak. The model characterizes and integrates the various environmental, medical, institutional, and behavioral factors that determine outbreak development and outcome. These include contaminant delivery and detection, water treatment efficiency, the timing of interventions, and the choices that people make when confronted with a known or suspected risk. The model is used to evaluate the efficacy of alternative strategies for improving risk management during an outbreak, and to identify priorities for improvements in the public health system. Modeling results indicate that the greatest opportunity for curtailing a large outbreak is realized by minimizing delays in identifying and correcting a drinking-water problem. If these delays cannot be reduced, then the effectiveness of risk communication in preemptively reaching and persuading target populations to avoid exposure becomes important.

Choice Behavior↗
PubMed2005

Long- and short-term risk factors in the prediction of inpatient suicide: review of the literature.

The prediction of suicide remains a major challenge for health care professionals in inpatient settings. A clearer identification of factors specific to inpatient suicide is required to improve both practice and research within this area. This paper provides an overview of the inpatient suicide literature to date focusing on two particularly salient themes: Long term and short term prediction of suicide. Since the concept of short-term suicide risk dominates clinical practice, issues in relation to dynamic risk factors are emphasized.

Comorbidity↗
PubMed1990

Cost, resource utilization, and severity of illness in intensive care.

The relationship between health care resource use and severity of illness is important to hospitals providing care to sicker patients, so we investigated the relationship between resource utilization, cost, and severity of illness in 229 consecutive patients admitted to a pediatric intensive care unit. Resources measured included length of stay and number and cost of laboratory and imaging studies. Pediatric intensive care unit and daily mortality risks (assessed by the Physiologic Stability Index and the Dynamic Risk Index) were stratified as very low risk (less than 1%), low risk (1% to 2.5%), moderate risk (2.5% to 5.0%), and high risk (greater than 5%). Increasing daily resource use was directly related to increasing gradations of severity of illness. For very low, low-, moderate-, and high-risk patient days, the daily numbers of diagnostic studies were (mean +/- SEM) 20.1 +/- 0.6, 31.4 +/- 1.1, 37.7 +/- 1.6, and 43.0 +/- 1.8, respectively. Total resource use, including diagnostic tests and length of stay, also increased with pediatric intensive care unit mortality risk. Diagnostic testing and corresponding costs were significantly higher for infants who died in the pediatric intensive care unit than for survivors on a day-by-day basis as well as for the entire stay in the care unit. We conclude that there is a direct, positive relationship between resource use, cost, and gradations of severity of illness that, if accounted for, would result in more equitable health care reimbursement.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2003

Emerging issues, policy changes, and the future of treating children with sexual behavior problems.

Children and adolescents with sexual behavior problems are a growing national concern. While the field continues to make advances, we have much more work to do. We are working in a difficult and trying period for juvenile justice. It is a time when many are willing to give up on adolescents or punish them as we do adults. We have reached a point where many in our society do not know about, or care to understand, the complex issues that are the roots of violence and sexual violence in youth. Certainly their faith in the resiliency of youth has been tarnished. Nine critical areas that need to be taken into account when working with youth with sexual behavior problems are addressed. These areas include the unfortunate but continued trickle-down and use of adult-based treatment models to treat youth with sexual behavior problems, changes in juvenile law that have an impact on our ability to treat these youths effectively, the need for continued research in developing typologies for youths with sexual behavior problems and valid and reliable risk assessment scales, continued work with understanding and developing dynamic risk factors for sexually abusive youth, the need to develop better treatments for special populations of youth with sexual behavior problems, the need for a continuum of care, what constitutes best practice in treating youths with sexual behavior problems, the need for developing and refining standards of care, and the need for continued public education that supports prevention efforts to reduce sexual abuse by youth.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2006

A dynamic assessment of offender risk, needs, and strengths in a sample of pre-release general offenders.

Static, dynamic, and protective factors have been identified as three focal domains significantly related to offender recidivism. However, few measures include comprehensive and inclusive assessment of these variables. The Inventory of Offender Risk, Needs, and Strengths (IORNS) was developed to fill a void in the assessment of risk and needs for offenders. The current study examines the reliability and initial validity of the IORNS in a sample of pre-release offenders assessed for risk and treatment need. Results indicate moderate to high levels of internal consistency and identical IORNS scale results across race, and that the IORNS indexes, scales, and subscales display good convergent validity with self-report and interview measures of static risk, dynamic risk, antisocial behavior, psychopathy, personality pathology, substance abuse, depression, and anxiety. Initial predictive validity examination of the IORNS indicates that several of the indexes, scales, and subscales were able to differentiate offenders who were sent back to prison for half-way house rule violations from those who did not violate rules.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1998

Information and risk perception: a dynamic adjustment process.

It is common in catastrophic food-contamination events that consumers fail to adjust instantaneously to a normal consumption level. One explanation is that consumers only gradually accept new positive information as being trustworthy. The gradual establishment of the trustworthiness of the released information depends on both positive and negative media coverage over time. We examine the individual "trust" effects by extending the prospective reference theory (Viscusi, 1989) to include a dynamic adjustment process of risk perception. Conditions that allow aggregation of changes in risk perceptions across individuals are described. The proposed model describes a general updating process of risk perceptions to media coverage and can be applied to explain the temporal impact of media coverage on consumption of a broad range of goods (food or nonfood). A case study of milk contamination is conducted to demonstrate consumer demand adjustment process to a temporarily unfavorable shock. The results suggest that effects of positive and negative information to adjustment of consumption and risk perception are asymmetric over time.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

The structural coherence of clinically derived dynamic indicators of reoffending risk.

BACKGROUND: Forensic psychiatrists aim to reduce the risk of reoffending through treatment. With few exceptions, research evidence tends to favour risk assessment aids reliant on fixed historical rather than clinical data, but transparency in the making of clinical judgements is lacking. AIMS: To evaluate further a clinically derived 47-item dynamic risk assessment checklist; specifically to test first whether it has a meaningful dimensional structure and, second, the extent to which items and underlying dimensions are associated with a separate, direct clinical judgement of risk of reoffending. METHODS: Data sets from four previous studies on the reliability and validity of the Clinical Inventory of Dynamic Reoffending Risk Indicators (CIDRRI) were merged, yielding 370 cases. The resulting data set was analysed using principal axis (common) factor analysis, with orthogonal (varimax) rotation. In addition, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated. RESULTS: The model of best fit depended on treatment stage; for those in residential treatment it was a six- factor model (responsibility, self-reliance, antisocial/narcissistic traits, treatment compliance, goal attainment and avoidance); for those back in the community a five-actor model in which, effectively, the compliance and goal attainment factors became one, provided a better fit. These dimensions and some individual scale items were associated with clinical judgement of risk of reoffending. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: This study provides evidence that the CIDRRI is an adequate operationalization of underpinnings of clinical risk assessment, and that these underpinnings are part of meaningful higher-order dimensions. The CIDRRI is a viable instrument for clinical use, taking only 15 minutes to complete and identifying dynamic risk factors, the validity of which needs to be further established.

Adult↗
PubMed1998

Heart rate dynamics in low risk human fetuses.

Evaluation of nonlinear heart rate (HR) dynamics has received considerable attention in the pediatric literature because such analyses not only provide insight into underlying control mechanisms, but may also help to differentiate between normal and abnormal infants. The purpose of this study was to determine, in eight low risk human fetuses, if nonlinear HR dynamics could be identified by analyzing the dispersion of interbeat intervals at slow (Ds) and fast (Df) HRs. The fetal cardiac electrical signal was captured transabdominally at a resolution of +/- 1 ms. To test the null hypothesis, that the time series is the result of a linear stochastic process, Ds and Df for the original time series were compared with the values calculated for three linear models. The linear models were constructed to preserve the major statistical properties of the original time series, including the mean, SD, and the Fourier power spectrum. For each fetus, there was no evidence of nonlinear cardiac dynamics based on analyses of Ds and Df. In contrast, the distribution of adjacent R-R intervals and the pattern of change across three successive interbeat intervals both revealed significant nonlinearities in HR control in each fetus. If the difference between normal and abnormal infants is the result of aberrant control of nonlinear processes, then our findings indicate that parameters which describe the nonlinearity may be more useful then Ds and Df in assigning a risk status.

Apgar Score↗
PubMed2004

The epidemiology of HIV among Mexican migrants and recent immigrants in California and Mexico.

For Mexican migrants and recent immigrants, the impact of migration from Mexico to California has the potential to lead to an increased risk for HIV infection. Until recently, the prevalence of HIV in Mexico and among Mexican migrants in California appeared to be stable and relatively low. Recent studies have raised new concerns, however, that the HIV epidemic may expand more aggressively among this population in the coming years. Unfortunately, the insufficient amount of data available within recent years makes it difficult to fully assess the potential for rapid spread of the HIV epidemic among this population. Consequently, there is a critical need for an ongoing binational surveillance system to assess prevalence and trends in HIV/STD/TB disease and related risk behaviors among this population both in Calfornia and within this population's states of origin in Mexico. This enhanced epidemiologic surveillance system should provide improved data on the subpopulations at the highest risk for HIV/STD/TB, such as men who have sex with men, and should provide the opportunity to evaluate the impact of migration on the transmission dynamics, risk behaviors, and determinants of behavior on each side of the border. It is essential that this potential threat be assessed and that intervention programs are developed and implemented to combat this possible escalation in the HIV epidemic.

Agriculture↗
PubMed2005

[Decrease of the surgical risk level due to enhancement of the operative activity].

The surgical risk dynamics was studied up, basing on the scientific investigations data, performed during last 30 years. Basing on controversies existed in majority of aspects while performing the risk estimation calculation the need for the process to gain objective was established. The mathematical modelling procedure was proposed for the risk estimation. There were studied the influence of the surgeon qualification on the operative treatment volume and the result, as well as the surgeons of highest qualification occupation when the quantity of severely ill patients in emergency surgery enhances. The results, witnessing the reduction of the surgical risk factors influence while operative activity enhances, were adduced.

Models, Theoretical↗
PubMed2005

Joint modelling of repeated transitions in follow-up data--a case study on breast cancer data.

In longitudinal studies where time to a final event is the ultimate outcome often information is available about intermediate events the individuals may experience during the observation period. Even though many extensions of the Cox proportional hazards model have been proposed to model such multivariate time-to-event data these approaches are still very rarely applied to real datasets. The aim of this paper is to illustrate the application of extended Cox models for multiple time-to-event data and to show their implementation in popular statistical software packages. We demonstrate a systematic way of jointly modelling similar or repeated transitions in follow-up data by analysing an event-history dataset consisting of 270 breast cancer patients, that were followed-up for different clinical events during treatment in metastatic disease. First, we show how this methodology can also be applied to non Markovian stochastic processes by representing these processes as "conditional" Markov processes. Secondly, we compare the application of different Cox-related approaches to the breast cancer data by varying their key model components (i.e. analysis time scale, risk set and baseline hazard function). Our study showed that extended Cox models are a powerful tool for analysing complex event history datasets since the approach can address many dynamic data features such as multiple time scales, dynamic risk sets, time-varying covariates, transition by covariate interactions, autoregressive dependence or intra-subject correlation.

Algorithms↗
PubMed1994

Domestic homicide: risk assessment and professional duty to warn.

Battering has been associated with increased risk of homicide in the home. Homicide involving partners in a current or past intimate relationship may not have the same characteristics as other homicides. Physicians, nurses, and other health care professionals--who frequently see battered women as patients--should understand the dynamics, risk factors, and legal responsibilities related to domestic homicide in order to help prevent this form of violence.

Domestic Violence↗
PubMed2005

Hereditary melanoma and predictive genetic testing: why not?

BACKGROUND: Since p16-Leiden presymptomatic testing for hereditary melanoma has become available in the Netherlands, the benefits and risks of offering such testing are evaluated. The current paper investigated why the non-participants were reluctant to participate in genetic testing. METHODS: Sixty six eligible individuals, who were knowledgeable about the test but had not participated in genetic testing by January 2003, completed a self-report questionnaire assessing motivation, anxiety, family dynamics, risk knowledge and causal attributions. RESULTS: Non-participants reported anxiety levels below clinical significance. A principal components analysis on reasons for non-participation distinguished two underlying motives: emotional and rational motivation. Rational motivation for non-participation was associated with more accurate risk knowledge, the inclination to preselect mutation carriers within the family and lower scores on anxiety. Emotional motivation for non-participation was associated with disease misperceptions, hesitation to communicate unfavourable test results within the family and higher scores on anxiety. CONCLUSION: Rational and emotional motivation for non-participation in the genetic test for hereditary melanoma was found. Emotionally motivated individuals may be reluctant to disseminate genetic risk information. Rationally motivated individuals were better informed than emotionally motivated individuals. It is suggested that a leaflet is added to the invitation letter to enhance informed decision-making about genetic testing.

Adult↗
PubMed2004

Menopausal status dependence of the timing of breast cancer recurrence after surgical removal of the primary tumour.

INTRODUCTION: Information on the metastasis process in breast cancer patients undergoing primary tumour removal may be extracted from an analysis of the timing of clinical recurrence. METHODS: The hazard rate for local-regional and/or distant recurrence as the first event during the first 4 years after surgery was studied in 1173 patients undergoing mastectomy alone as primary treatment for operable breast cancer. Subset analyses were performed according to tumour size, axillary nodal status and menopausal status. RESULTS: A sharp two-peaked hazard function was observed for node-positive pre-menopausal patients, whereas results from node-positive post-menopausal women always displayed a single broad peak. The first narrow peak among pre-menopausal women showed a very steep rise to a maximum about 8-10 months after mastectomy. The second peak was considerably broader, reaching its maximum at 28-30 months. Post-menopausal patients displayed a wide, nearly symmetrical peak with maximum risk at about 18-20 months. Peaks displayed increasing height with increasing axillary lymph node involvement. No multi-peaked pattern was evident for either pre-menopausal or post-menopausal node-negative patients; however, this finding should be considered cautiously because of the limited number of events. Tumour size influenced recurrence risk but not its timing. Findings resulting from the different subsets of patients were remarkably coherent and each observed peak maintained the same position on the time axis in all analysed subsets. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of early recurrence for node positive patients is dependent on menopausal status. The amount of axillary nodal involvement and the tumour size modulate the risk value at any given time. For pre-menopausal node-positive patients, the abrupt increase of the first narrow peak of the recurrence risk suggests a triggering event that synchronises early risk. We suggest that this event is the surgical removal of the primary tumour. The later, broader, more symmetrical risk peaks indicate that some features of the corresponding metastatic development may present stochastic traits. A metastasis development model incorporating tumour dormancy in specific micro-metastatic phases, stochastic transitions between them and sudden acceleration of the metastatic process by surgery can explain these risk dynamics.

Adult↗
PubMedDate not supplied

[The Free Trade Agreement and environmental health in Mexico].

This work offers an overview of the state of the art and future state of environmental health in our country from a viewpoint of the impact of the commercial opening established in the Free Trade Agreement among Mexico, the USA, and Canada. In the first section of this work, we analyze the expected economic changes resulting from the implementation of the FTA and foretells the way in which those changes will influence the present environmental and epidemiologic profiles of this country in the medium and long term. The main changes predicted by the analysis are, in the epidemiologic context, the acceleration of the transference of occupational, consumption, environmental and population risks, characteristic of industrialized countries, to the country's polarized epidemiologic profile; and, in the environmental context, a transition consisting of a broadening and composition of the spectrum of pollutants, including and important lagging of bacteriologic control. The second section offers an analysis of the predicted response capacity facing the new environmental risk dynamics in the country, encompassing regulation, normativeness and enforcement of environmental and consumer protection, as well as obstacles found in health services to the implementation of surveillance, detection and treatment of health damages caused by environmental factors. The analysis of the organized social response to these problems discloses a relative flexibility of the normativeness and enforcement functions in comparison with our northern neighbors, a paramount factor for the possible transference of environmental risks, as well as the informational and research deficiency about environmental issues, basic elements for sustaining environmental health in the country, aiming at speeding up the development and transference of technologies for prevention, detection and management of environmental risks in the country, drawing upon the systematization of our experience and that of our neighbors. This speeding process ought to match, in the medium term, the velocity of risk transference produced by the commercial opening. In this way, the commercial integration of North America will become a favorable context for the development of the environmental health infrastructure of the country.

Canada↗
PubMed2026

Telomere Length Dynamics as a Biomarker of Individual Radiation Sensitivity and Pneumonitis in Lung Cancer Patients Receiving Thoracic Radiation Therapy.

PURPOSE: Telomere shortening is a biomarker for genome instability and aging, and the vulnerability of telomeric DNA to oxidative damage suggests its potential role in mediating radiation therapy (RT) side effects. This study evaluates telomere length (TL) as a biomarker for clinical radiosensitivity and adverse outcomes in thoracic RT-treated patients. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Patients with cancer receiving thoracic RT (2019-2022) were prospectively enrolled at Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts. Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) were collected pre-RT and ≤12 months post-RT. TL was measured using quantitative PCR, and multipathway DNA repair capacity (DRC) was simultaneously assessed by fluorescence multiplex host cell reactivation assays. RT outcomes included patient-reported quality of life and radiation pneumonitis. Linear mixed-effects models were used to analyze TL dynamics; risk prediction models for RT outcomes were evaluated using area under the curve. RESULTS: Pre-RT TL decreased with age (0.44% lower per year; 95% CI, 0.12%-0.77%) and advanced cancer stage (6.87% lower per step increase of stage; 95% CI, 3.45%-10.16%). Radical RT was associated with telomere shortening (3.7% lower; 95% CI, 0.27%-7.07%) in PBMCs, detectable ≤6 months post-RT. Pre-RT TL strongly predicted post-RT changes, and TL dynamics outperformed static measures in predicting symptom burden and radiation pneumonitis. Positive associations were observed between TL and DRC against oxidative lesions, with A:8-oxoG repair capacity mediating 12.8% of RT-induced TL shortening. CONCLUSIONS: Lymphocyte TL can reflect individual radiosensitivity and interact with oxidative damage repair. Longitudinal assessment of TL dynamics provides additional predictive value for adverse RT outcomes compared with static measures. Further studies are needed to fully determine the clinical utility of TL.

Humans↗
PubMed2001

[Inpatient violence: frequency, risk factors, preventive strategies].

In contrast to Angloamerican and Scandinavian countries inpatient violence was not regarded as a problem in German-speaking countries for a long time. Only recently it has become a topic of increasing interest for clinical practice and research, whereby the present data exhibit significant parallels to the international development. After the discussion of methodological problems (e. g. varying definitions, sources of information, ways of registration) the paper presents the current state of knowledge about inpatient violence:Underestimation in general, mainly with respect to female patients; only a few patients are responsible for the majority of assaults; victims are rather staff members than fellow patients; discrepancy between the mostly minor physical, though major emotional consequences for victims; considerably negative effects on patient-staff interactions and ward climate. Aside from patient-related actuarial and dynamic risk factors (social origin, previous history of aggressive behaviour, dissocial personality traits and - partly - diagnoses, acute intoxication, substance abuse, lack of insight and compliance, psychotic symptoms) external/contextual factors as patient-staff ratio, ward size, structure and climate, staff-attitudes, recognition of early warning signs and handling of risk situations are of major importance for the frequency and severity of incidents. Intervention and prevention strategies are focussing - aside from medication - on the aforementioned staff-related factors and patient-staff interactions. They are the principal basis for sufficient inpatient treatment beyond the problem of violence.

Aggression↗