PubMed Health⌕ Search

SEARCH · PubMed Health

Results for “Risk prediction”

Explore indexed PubMed citations for clinical trials, systematic reviews and public health research. Read source abstracts and follow each citation to its original PubMed record.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
PubMed2026

Blood Metabolomic Signatures of 1-Hour Glucose Predict Cardiometabolic Risk.

BACKGROUND: Elevated 1-hour glucose levels during an oral glucose tolerance test strongly predict type 2 diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular disease. We investigated whether the fasting blood metabolome predicting 1-hour glucose could be a target for improving β-cell function, long-term glycemic trajectories, and reducing the risks of T2D and coronary heart disease. We also investigated whether plasma microRNAs derived from key metabolic organs regulate changes in a metabolomic risk score (MRS) for predicting 1-hour glucose. METHODS: Untargeted blood metabolomics and a frequently sampled 75-g oral glucose tolerance test were performed in participants from the OmniCarb trial (n=162). In an independent weight-loss dietary intervention trial (POUNDS Lost [Preventing Overweight Using Novel Dietary Strategies]), temporal changes in MRS and plasma microRNAs measured by genome-wide sequencing were analyzed. In addition, associations of MRS at baseline and its 10-year changes with long-term risk of incident T2D and coronary heart disease were prospectively investigated in the NHS (Nurses' Health Study). RESULTS: We created a fasting blood MRS for predicting 1-hour glucose (Pearson r=0.8) and found significant associations with half-day (diurnal) postprandial glucose excursions and insulin secretion after 5-week controlled feeding interventions varying in carbohydrate amount and glycemic index. In the POUNDS Lost trial, diet-induced changes in MRSs were related to 2-year trajectories of glucose metabolism; circulating microRNAs regulating cardiometabolic abnormalities were pivotal factors influencing these changes. In the NHS, women in the top 20% of MRS had a multivariate-adjusted relative risk of 3.80 (95% CI, 2.22-6.51) for T2D and 1.48 (95% CI, 1.04-2.12) for coronary heart disease compared with those in the lowest 20%. In addition, 10-year increases in plasma metabolites related to 1-hour glucose were linearly associated with a higher risk of T2D. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that fasting blood metabolomic signatures predicting elevated 1-hour glucose reflect disease pathophysiology and could be targets for preventing T2D and coronary heart disease.

blood glucose↗
PubMed2025

Study research protocol for Phenome India-CSIR Health Cohort Knowledgebase: A prospective multi-modal follow-up study on a nationwide employee cohort.

Predicting individual health trajectories based on risk scores can help formulate effective preventive strategies for diseases and their complications. Currently, most risk prediction algorithms rely on epidemiological data from the Caucasian population, which often do not translate well to the Indian population due to ethnic diversity, differing dietary and lifestyle habits, and unique risk profiles. In this multi-center prospective longitudinal study conducted across India, we aim to address these challenges by developing clinically relevant risk prediction scores for cardio-metabolic diseases specifically tailored to the Indian population. India, which accounts for nearly 18% of the global population, also has a significant diaspora worldwide. This program targets longitudinal collection and bio-banking of samples from over 10 000 employees both working and retirees of the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research and their spouses, with baseline sample collection already completed. During the baseline collection, we gathered multi-parametric data including clinical questionnaires, lifestyle and dietary habits, anthropometric parameters, lung function assessments, liver elastography by Fibroscan, electrocardiogram readings, biochemical data, and molecular assays, including but not limited to genomics, plasma proteomics, metabolomics, and fecal microbiome analysis. In addition to exploring associations between these parameters and their cardio-metabolic outcomes, we plan to employ artificial intelligence algorithms to develop predictive models for phenotypic conditions. This study could pave the way for precision medicine tailored to the Indian population, particularly for the middle-income strata, and help refine the normative values for health and disease indicators in India.

cardio-metabolic↗
PubMed2026

A weakly supervised deep learning-based recurrence prediction and risk stratification of lung adenocarcinoma from pathology whole-slide images.

BACKGROUND: Accurate prediction of postoperative recurrence in lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) is essential for guiding clinical decision-making and improving patient outcomes. Although various predictive models have been developed, most rely on complex genomic analyses and high-dimensional clinical data. The complexity of these approaches substantially limits their feasibility for routine clinical use. To address this clinical challenge, this study aims to predict postoperative recurrence using routinely available hematoxylin and eosin (H&E)-stained images and characterize the associated biological features. METHODS: A total of 329 patients who underwent curative resection at the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University (FHWMU) were retrospectively enrolled and randomly assigned to training and internal validation cohorts in a 7:3 ratio. An independent external validation cohort comprising 70 patients from the Clinical Proteomic Tumor Analysis Consortium (CPTAC) was included. Three patch-level feature extractors (Inception_V3, ResNet18, and DenseNet121) were evaluated within a weakly supervised multiple-instance learning (MIL) framework incorporating automated region-of-interest (ROI) detection on segmented whole-slide images (WSIs). Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Kaplan-Meier (KM) survival analysis, and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression. Transcriptomic profiling and gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) were conducted to investigate biological differences between risk groups. RESULTS: The model achieved AUCs of 0.923 in the training cohort, 0.891 in the internal validation cohort, and 0.847 in the external validation cohort. The model effectively stratified patients into high- and low-risk groups with significantly different recurrence-free survival (RFS) across all cohorts (all P&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.001) and retained prognostic value within AJCC stages I-III. Transcriptomic analyses revealed consistent enrichment of cell cycle-related pathways and neutrophil extracellular trap (NET) formation in high-risk patients across both institutional and CPTAC cohorts, aligning with distinct biological profiles of the model-derived risk stratification. CONCLUSIONS: This weakly supervised deep learning framework enables accurate and externally validated prediction of postoperative recurrence in LUAD using routinely available histopathological images, and integration of histopathological features with molecular analyses enhances biological interpretability. This work provides a clinically accessible and cost-effective tool for postoperative risk assessment in LUAD patients.

Humans↗
PubMed2026

Deep learning and statistical methods identify novel asthma risk variants in Europeans.

BACKGROUND: Asthma is a common heritable respiratory disorder with a complex genetic basis. Although large-scale genome-wide association studies have identified many risk loci, the full spectrum of its polygenic architecture remains to be defined. OBJECTIVE: We refined the genetic landscape of asthma in individuals of European ancestry and improve polygenic risk prediction through statistical and deep learning-based methods. METHODS: We conducted the largest genome-wide association study meta-analysis of asthma in individuals of European ancestry, combining data from the Global Biobank Meta-analysis Initiative (121,940 cases, 1,254,131 controls) and the Million Veteran Program (36,823 cases, 398,278 controls). To enhance discovery, we applied pleiotropy-informed multitrait analysis and conditional false discovery rate approaches, each incorporating eosinophil counts as a secondary trait. In parallel, we used a Transformer-based deep learning framework to further prioritize variants and improve polygenic risk prediction. RESULTS: The meta-analysis identified 69 independent genome-wide significant loci (P&#x2009;<&#x2009;5 &#xd7; 10-8) not previously reported in asthma. Multitrait analysis of genome-wide association studies, conditional false discovery rate, and deep learning approaches uncovered additional candidate loci. Functional annotation and expression quantitative trait locus mapping implicated novel genes in immune regulation, airway remodeling, and metabolic processes. Polygenic risk score models derived from deep learning-prioritized variants outperformed those based on conventional genome-wide association study and standard statistical approaches. CONCLUSIONS: Our study yields a comprehensive map of asthma-associated loci in European ancestry populations, improves genetic risk prediction, and informs future mechanistic studies.

Humans↗
PubMed2026

Multi-omic biomarkers in cardiovascular disease: Discovery to clinical translation.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of mortality worldwide, necessitating improved risk stratification and early detection strategies. Multiomics approaches that integrate genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, metabolomics, and epigenomics offer unprecedented opportunities for biomarker discovery and precision medicine in cardiovascular care. This narrative review examines the current landscape of multiomics biomarkers for CVD, tracing their evolution from discovery to clinical translation. We synthesize evidence from recent studies evaluating the clinical utility of integrated omics approaches across diverse cardiovascular conditions, including atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, heart failure, and atrial fibrillation. High-throughput proteomics has identified novel protein signatures that enhance cardiovascular risk prediction beyond traditional risk factors. Metabolomics has revealed pathway-specific biomarkers, including trimethylamine N-oxide and lipid species, associated with atherogenesis. Polygenic risk scores derived from genomic data demonstrate incremental value when combined with clinical risk scores. Multiomics biomarkers represent a transformative approach to cardiovascular risk assessment and disease management.

Humans↗
PubMed2026

Performance of AI-Based Screening Tools for Obstructive Sleep Apnea Across Apnea-Hypopnea Index Thresholds: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is highly prevalent but remains substantially underdiagnosed. Polysomnography (PSG) is the reference standard, but its cost and limited availability constrain large-scale case identification. AI-based screening tools may support risk stratification and referral prioritization, but their diagnostic accuracy across apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) thresholds remains uncertain. OBJECTIVE: This review aimed to systematically evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of AI-based OSA screening tools at AHI thresholds of &#x2265;5, &#x2265;15, and &#x2265;30 events/hour, with emphasis on models using non-PSG-derived inputs. METHODS: PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science were searched for studies published from January 1, 2016, to May 3, 2026. Eligible studies included adults evaluated for suspected OSA or recruited from population-based cohorts, assessed AI-based models intended or interpretable for OSA screening, risk prediction, or screening-oriented severity classification, used PSG as the reference standard, and reported sufficient data to construct or reconstruct 2&#xd7;2 contingency tables. Diagnostic accuracy was synthesized separately by AHI threshold and input source using bivariate random-effects models, with 95% CIs and prediction intervals (PIs). Risk of bias and certainty of evidence were assessed using QUADAS-2 (Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies 2) and GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation), respectively. RESULTS: A total of 60 studies were included, of which 47 contributed data to the meta-analysis. At AHI thresholds of &#x2265;5, &#x2265;15, and &#x2265;30 events/hour, pooled sensitivities were 0.94 (95% CI 0.92-0.96; 95% PI 0.71-0.99), 0.87 (95% CI 0.84-0.89; 95% PI 0.66-0.96), and 0.83 (95% CI 0.79-0.87; 95% PI 0.61-0.94), respectively; the corresponding specificities were 0.77 (95% CI 0.69-0.84; 95% PI 0.30-0.96), 0.81 (95% CI 0.75-0.85; 95% PI 0.39-0.96), and 0.91 (95% CI 0.87-0.94; 95% PI 0.55-0.99), respectively. The corresponding areas under the summary receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.943, 0.907, and 0.920. For non-PSG-derived tools, sensitivities were 0.92, 0.85, and 0.81, and specificities were 0.70, 0.74, and 0.85 at the 3 thresholds, respectively. For PSG-derived models, sensitivities were 0.96, 0.90, and 0.85, and specificities were 0.82, 0.88, and 0.96, respectively. Exploratory subgroup analyses suggested performance variation across selected study and model characteristics, including region, algorithmic framework, data source, and validation method. CONCLUSIONS: AI-based tools showed generally favorable screening performance for OSA across clinically relevant AHI thresholds, although wide PIs suggest variable performance across future comparable populations and settings. By synthesizing diagnostic accuracy across 3 AHI thresholds and distinguishing non-PSG-derived from PSG-derived models, this review extends previous broad or modality-specific reviews and offers a clinically interpretable, pathway-specific basis for linking model performance to intended use. The findings may clarify potential roles for non-PSG-derived tools in front-end screening and referral prioritization and for PSG-derived models in reduced-channel assessment and sleep-laboratory workflow support. Given substantial heterogeneity, limited external validation, and low or very low certainty of evidence, prospective validation is needed before routine implementation.

Humans↗
PubMed2026

Development and validation of a comprehensive prognostic model for 28-day ICU mortality in non-traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage: an analysis based on the MIMIC-IV database.

BACKGROUND: Due to the complex pathophysiology of non-traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH), accurate risk prediction remains a challenge. Our aim is to develop and validate a comprehensive prognostic model that integrates demographic characteristics, vital signs, laboratory parameters, and more, to provide clinical decision-making support in real-world practice. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 785 Non-traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage patients. The cohort was randomly divided into a training set (n&#xa0;=&#xa0;549) and a validation set (n&#xa0;=&#xa0;236). Feature selection was performed using LASSO regression, followed by backward stepwise Cox regression for optimization. A nomogram was constructed based on independent predictive factors, and model performance was assessed using discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analysis. To prevent immortal-time bias, all predictors were anchored to a fixed early (first-24-hour) measurement window, treatment variables were modelled as binary indicators rather than cumulative exposures, and a five-model sensitivity analysis with baseline-severity adjustment was performed. RESULTS: The development of our model followed a systematic approach: first, 15 potential predictive factors were selected via LASSO regression, which were then refined to 12 independent predictors using backward stepwise Cox regression. The final predictive factors included: Ventilation, AHT, Nimodipine 60&#xa0;mg, Age, SAPS.II, Input amount, Calcium total, Platelet count, White blood cells, Anion gap, pH, and Chloride. The integrated model demonstrated excellent predictive ability for 7-day, 14-day, and 21-day mortality in both the training set (AUC: 0.972, 0.934, 0.898) and the validation set (AUC: 0.968, 0.948, 0.911). Calibration curves and decision curve analysis confirmed the model's reliability and clinical utility across different time points. We constructed a nomogram for individualized risk prediction. Univariate Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrated significant stratification of survival outcomes by each predictor, while restricted cubic spline analysis revealed non-linear relationships between continuous variables and mortality risk. Random survival forest analysis identified the top three predictive factors (Nimodipine 60&#xa0;mg, Ventilation, AHT) and compared them with our full 12-variable model, confirming superior performance of the integrated model at all time points. At the 28-day primary endpoint, the model achieved a time-dependent AUC of 0.898 (training) and 0.904 (validation); after restricting predictors to the early baseline window, the leakage-controlled model retained good discrimination (validation C-index 0.803). CONCLUSIONS: Our ICU 28-day mortality prognosis model demonstrated robust performance in predicting ICU 28-day mortality in non-traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage. The model, through the nomogram, provides individualized risk assessment, aiding clinical decision-making and patient stratification.

Humans↗
PubMed2026

Deep learning-based cross-attention fusion of multimodal MRI for survival prediction and risk stratification in IDH-wildtype glioblastoma: a multicenter study.

BACKGROUND: Glioblastoma (GBM) exhibits profound molecular and spatial heterogeneity, complicating prognostic evaluations. While multiparametric MRI provides crucial multidimensional biological information, conventional end-to-end deep learning integration strategies, such as early or late fusion, often fail to capture complex nonlinear cross-modal interactions. We aimed to systematically evaluate a cross-attention fusion (CAF) architecture for GBM survival prediction and quantify its incremental prognostic value relative to existing clinical tools. METHODS: In this multicenter retrospective study, 386 adults with IDH-wildtype, WHO grade 4 GBM were assembled from an institutional cohort (n = 226), the Chinese Glioma Genome Atlas (CGGA, n = 62), and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA, n = 98). Using a unified 3D ResNet-18 backbone, we compared single-modality models, early fusion, late fusion, and CAF on preoperative T1-weighted, contrast-enhanced T1-weighted (T1CE), and T2-weighted MRI, and integrated the resulting deep learning risk score with routine clinical variables through multivariable Cox regression. Performance was assessed using Harrell's C-index, time-dependent AUC, and decision curve analysis. RESULTS: CAF showed numerically higher, more consistent C-index trends than early fusion, late fusion, and single-modality models (pooled C-index 0.629, 95% CI 0.594-0.664), although pairwise differences in time-dependent AUC were not statistically significant. Integrating clinical variables raised the pooled C-index to 0.691 (95% CI 0.660-0.721) in the treatment-era model, with comparable performance across the three cohorts (Local 0.688; CGGA 0.716; TCGA 0.689); a pre-treatment configuration excluding adjuvant therapy yielded a pooled C-index of 0.642. Under leave-one-cohort-out external validation, the combined model retained significant risk stratification in all held-out cohorts (C-index 0.63-0.71; all log-rank P&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.01), albeit with attenuated discrimination. The deep learning risk score remained independent after multivariable adjustment (HR 1.41 per SD, 95% CI 1.26-1.57; P&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.001). Kaplan-Meier analysis confirmed significant high- versus low-risk separation in all cohorts, and decision curve analysis showed greater net benefit than clinical-only and deep-learning-only models. CONCLUSION: The CAF-derived risk score offers prognostic information complementary to routine clinical variables, representing a promising noninvasive tool for individualized risk stratification when molecular profiling is incomplete or unavailable; these findings warrant prospective external validation before clinical use.

cross-attention fusion↗
PubMed2026

Mitochondria related gene signature serves as prognosis prediction and risk stratification of cholangiocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Cholangiocarcinoma (CHOL) is a highly aggressive biliary malignancy with poor clinical outcomes and limited effective prognostic biomarkers. Mitochondrial dysfunction participates in multiple oncological processes of CHOL, yet the prognostic roles of mitochondria&#x2011;related genes (MRGs) remain poorly understood. This study aimed to characterize MRGs expression in CHOL and develop a molecular prognostic model for predicting patient survival and guiding clinical management. METHODS: RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) and clinical data of CHOL were obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) (GSE89748) databases. Differentially expressed MRGs were identified, and 10 machine learning algorithms were used to construct prognostic models. The optimal model (highest average C-index) was selected to establish a mitochondria-related risk score (MRRS), which was validated internally and externally. A nomogram integrating clinical factors and MRRS was developed, and biological mechanisms were explored via functional and immune analyses. RESULTS: A 3-MRG (MAP3K1, MRPL18, PYGB) prognostic signature was constructed, stratifying patients into high- and low-risk groups with significantly different overall survival. The model showed high predictive accuracy, with an area under the curve (AUC) up to 0.845, and MRRS was an independent prognostic factor. The signature was associated with mitochondrial pathways, and the high-risk group had distinct immune infiltration and mutation profiles. CONCLUSIONS: A validated MRG prognostic model effectively stratifies CHOL patients and has potential clinical value for prognosis prediction. Further validation in larger cohorts is needed to confirm its applicability.

Cholangiocarcinoma (CHOL)↗
PubMed2026

Proteomic signatures for sudden cardiac death and related intermediate phenotypes.

BACKGROUND: Novel markers for sudden cardiac death (SCD) are needed. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to explore whether a protein risk score derived from a large-scale proteomics dataset improves risk prediction of SCD in the general population. METHODS: A total of 52,705 individuals with 1459 unique plasma protein measurements were included from the UK Biobank Pharma Proteomics Project. A protein risk score was developed using lasso-penalized Cox regression on 40,722 participants enrolled at the English centers and validated on 11,983 participants enrolled at the remaining centers. RESULTS: The protein risk score formula developed from the derivation set comprised 64 unique plasma proteins including latent-transforming growth factor beta-binding protein 2, protein tyrosine phosphatase receptor sigma, and spondin-1. In the test set, a per standard deviation increase in protein risk score was associated with a hazard ratio of 2.60 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.12-3.18) for SCD. Adding a protein risk score to SCD clinical risk factors resulted in a concordance index increase of 0.063 (95% CI 0.037-0.105) for SCD. For ventricular arrhythmia-mediated SCDs, an increase in concordance index when a protein risk score was added to SCD clinical risk factors was 0.070 (95% CI 0.010-0.188). A protein risk score added to SCD clinical risk factors resulted in a risk reclassification of 16.9% (95% CI 9.0-24.7) at a 10-year risk threshold of 5%. A protein risk score was significantly associated with intermediate phenotypes of SCD including corrected QT prolongation, an increase in left ventricular mean myocardial thickness, and a decrease in left ventricular global longitudinal strain. CONCLUSION: A protein risk score derived from a single plasma sample significantly improved risk prediction of SCD and related intermediate phenotypes.

Humans↗
PubMed2026

Assessment of the Potential of Different Anthropometric Indices in Predicting the Risk of Diabetes and Associated Co-morbidities.

Diabetes, a chronic disorder, is showing a rapidly increasing trend globally. India holds the second position in the global diabetes epidemic. The present investigation is an assessment of different anthropometric measurements and their association with type 2 diabetes to determine their diagnostic potential for diabetes as well as its co-morbidities. In this cross-sectional study, we have measured anthropometric parameters and blood biomarkers in subjects with diabetes. We have presented the comparisons of cost- and time-effective anthropometric variable with costly and time-dependent biochemical variables in control and diabetic groups (n = 233/group). Correlations between anthropometric variables and biochemical measurements, as well as the diagnostic utility of anthropometric variables for diabetes, were evaluated. The diagnostic utility of anthropometric variables for diabetes was assessed through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Neck circumference, sagittal abdominal diameter (SAD), skinfold thickness, and body roundness index (BRI) displayed high specificity and diagnostic utility for diabetes, emphasizing their potential in predicting diabetes and the further development of metabolic syndrome. The study highlights the importance of cost- and time-effective anthropometric assessments in diabetes risk evaluation and calls for further research to elucidate this intricate relationship and develop personalized management strategies.

Humans↗
PubMed2026

Genome-wide association, polygenic risk scores, and machine learning for chronic post-surgical pain risk stratification: A UK biobank study.

Chronic post-surgical pain is a prevalent and debilitating complication following surgery, representing a clinical challenge. Despite the established heritability of pain phenotypes, large-scale genetic studies remain limited. This study aimed to identify genetic variants associated with chronic post-surgical pain, develop polygenic risk scores, and integrate these with clinical features for risk prediction. UK Biobank data from 47,836 participants (2490 cases and 45,346 controls) were split into training (80%; n = 38,268) and validation (20%; n = 9568) sets prior to analysis. A genome-wide association study was conducted on the training set only, across 19 million variants, and polygenic risk scores were constructed and integrated with clinical features in a logistic regression framework. Two close, rare, imputed signals crossed the genome-wide significance threshold but lacked local linkage-disequilibrium support, while 220 variants crossed the suggestive threshold. In the held-out validation set, cases had higher mean polygenic risk scores than controls (0.138 vs. -0.021; Cohen's d = 0.16, p < 0.001). A logistic regression model integrating clinical features and polygenic risk scores achieved an area under the curve of 0.639 (95% CI: 0.583-0.693), higher than models using either feature set alone. The polygenic risk score for chronic post-surgical pain was among the most important predictors. Risk stratification revealed the top quartile had 3.84-fold higher odds of chronic post-surgical pain than the bottom quartile (95% CI: 2.00-7.37). These findings suggest a possible modest genetic contribution to chronic post-surgical pain. Polygenic risk scores may complement clinical factors in surgical risk stratification. PERSPECTIVE: Chronic post-surgical pain may have a modest genetic contribution. This UK Biobank study identified over 220 variants at suggestive significance and constructed a polygenic risk score that was significantly elevated in cases. A combined clinical-genomic model achieved a 3.84-fold difference in odds across predicted-risk quartiles.

Chronic post-surgical pain↗
PubMed2026

Exploring China's Clean Air Act and associated cardiovascular disease risk: a prospective, quasi-experimental, and causal inference modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Substantial improvements in air quality have been recorded following the implementation of China's Clean Air Act (CCAA) in 2013. However, the association between CCAA implementation and individual-level cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk remains unclear. We aimed to examine the long-term association between CCAA implementation and individual-level predicted CVD risk. METHODS: In this prospective, quasi-experimental study, we used data from the China Kadoorie Biobank, a prospective cohort study that recruited participants from five urban and five rural areas across China between 2004 and 2008, with three resurveys conducted after the baseline survey (in 2008, 2013-14, and 2020-21). We included 34&#x2009;862 individuals (mean age 51&#xb7;3 years) who participated in at least one resurvey and had no history of CVD at baseline. Participants were classified into intervention (n=25&#x2009;497) and control (n=9365) groups based on the local government's targets for particulate matter reduction. We estimated the 10-year risk of incident CVD morbidity or mortality using a validated risk prediction model. We used a difference-in-difference model to assess the long-term association between CCAA implementation and predicted risk, with adjustments made for regional confounders and individual-level characteristics, including demographics, lifestyle factors, medical history, and indoor air pollution exposure. The relationship between changes in long-term exposure to PM2&#xb7;5, PM10, and O3 and predicted risk after CCAA implementation was analysed using a linear model. The estimated risk differences associated with air pollutant changes were estimated based on the magnitude of changes and their corresponding effect sizes. FINDINGS: After the CCAA was implemented, PM2&#xb7;5 and PM10 concentrations declined in both groups, but O3 concentrations increased. The intervention group showed a 3&#xb7;95% (95% CI 3&#xb7;18-4&#xb7;72%) lower increase in predicted risk than the control group, with larger estimated differences under stricter enforcement. Between 2013 and 2021, each 10 &#x3bc;g/m3 change in PM2&#xb7;5 concentration was positively associated with a 1&#xb7;80 (1&#xb7;34-2&#xb7;27) percentage point change in predicted CVD risk, whereas each 10 &#x3bc;g/m3 change in PM10 concentration was associated with a 1&#xb7;24 (0&#xb7;84-1&#xb7;63) percentage point change and each 10 &#x3bc;g/m3 change in O3 concentration with a 0&#xb7;58 (0&#xb7;33-0&#xb7;83) percentage point change. Overall, the observed changes in air pollutants during the study period were associated with an average 6&#xb7;6 percentage point reduction in predicted CVD risk. INTERPRETATION: The CCAA and improved air quality were associated with a slower increase in predicted CVD risk, supporting the necessity for stricter, multipollutant air quality policies to maximise public health benefits. FUNDING: National Natural Science Foundation of China, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, Noncommunicable Chronic Diseases-National Science and Technology Major Project, National Key R&D Program of China, Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, and UK Wellcome Trust.

Journal Article↗
PubMed2026

Unraveling 'F' factor: towards a genetic-clinical framework for the musculoskeletal-heart crosstalk in metabolic aging.

BACKGROUND: The rising co-occurrence of cardiometabolic diseases and musculoskeletal degeneration poses a critical challenge to healthy aging, yet the shared biological mechanisms underlying this multimorbidity remain poorly defined. This study aimed to establish an integrative clinical-genetic framework to elucidate the common frailty factor, the 'F' factor, that captures the systemic vulnerability linking cardiometabolic multimorbidity (CMM) and musculoskeletal aging. METHODS: Utilizing the prospective China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) cohort, we developed and validated novel Frailty-Integrated Indices for CMM risk prediction, evaluated with machine learning models interpreted via SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). Independently, we applied genomic structural equation modeling (Genomic-SEM) to integrate genome-wide association data from six traits-coronary artery disease, type 2 diabetes, hypertension, bone mineral density, frailty, and telomere length-to model a shared latent genetic factor ('F' factor). This was followed by multivariate GWAS, fine-mapping, transcriptome-wide association study (TWAS), gene-based analysis, and functional annotation to prioritize causal genes, pathways, and cell types. RESULTS: Clinically, several Frailty-Integrated Indices significantly improved CMM risk prediction, with the optimal model achieving an AUC of 0.727. Genetically, we modeled a significant shared latent genetic factor ('F' factor), pinpointing novel risk loci and implicating key genes such as APOE and SLC22A3. These genes were enriched in pathways including cellular senescence and cholesterol metabolism and showed specific expression patterns in developmental brain stages and across multi-organ endothelial cells. CONCLUSION: Our findings provide converging evidence for Musculoskeletal&#x2011;Heart crosstalk of metabolic aging and inferred the 'F' factor as a genetic correlate of a transdiagnostic state, which links genetic predisposition to metabolic dysregulation, and systemic functional decline. This work provides a multi-level biological characterization of multimorbidity liability, informing early-risk detection and preventive strategies for complex aging-related comorbidities.

Humans↗
PubMed2025

Examining Transcriptomic Markers Associated With Neutrophil Extracellular Traps to Predict Mortality Risk in Neonatal Sepsis.

BACKGROUND: Neonates are highly susceptible to sepsis, which is often accompanied by fatal coagulopathy. Anticoagulant therapies have not reduced sepsis-related mortality in clinical trials, possibly due to patient heterogeneity. Neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs) enhance coagulation by activating platelets, suggesting that NET-specific biomarkers may identify patients who may benefit from targeted anticoagulant treatment. This study evaluated the association between NET gene expression and adverse outcomes in neonatal sepsis. METHODS: We analyzed whole blood transcriptomes from 123 neonates with sepsis and developed a predictive model, the NET score, based on NET-related gene expression. Model performance was assessed in two independent validation sets. Mediation and correlation analyses explored the relationship between the NET score and a coagulation score. Temporal transcriptomic data from septic shock cases further tested this interaction. RESULTS: The NET score achieved AUCs of 88.7% and 85.4% in validation Sets 1 and 2, respectively, indicating strong predictive performance. Mediation and temporal analyses supported a sequential relationship between NETosis and coagulation in sepsis. Age-specificity of the model was confirmed using pediatric (n = 163) and adult (n = 86) sepsis transcriptomic datasets. Neonates with disseminated intravascular coagulation exhibited a trend toward elevated NET scores. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support a novel risk stratification approach using the NET score to identify neonates at increased risk for sepsis-associated coagulopathy and poor outcomes, potentially guiding targeted therapeutic strategies.

neonatal sepsis↗
PubMed2026

Toward personalized interventions for preventing depression in primary care: Qualitative and quantitative findings from the e-predictD pilot study.

BACKGROUND: The predictD intervention, delivered by family physicians (FPs), has demonstrated effectiveness and cost-efficiency in preventing depression and anxiety. The e-predictD study aims to design, develop, and evaluate a novel personalized intervention for depression prevention by integrating information and communication technologies (ICTs), risk prediction algorithms, and decision support systems (DSS) for both patients and FPs. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the satisfaction, usability, and acceptability, of a beta version of the e-predictD intervention in primary care settings. METHODS: The e-predictD intervention follows a biopsychosocial approach, including an initial patient-FP interview, specific FP training, and an app. A &#x3b2;-version was tested in a pilot study without a control group over three months. The app integrates a validated depression risk prediction algorithm, decision algorithms, and a monitoring system supporting the DSS. The DSS generates a personalized prevention plan (PPP) from eight intervention modules: physical exercise, social relationships, problem-solving, communication skills, decision-making, assertiveness, sleep improvement, and cognitive restructuring. Patients and FPs discussed the PPP in a 15-minute baseline interview, selecting modules for implementation over three months. Semi-structured interviews gathered feedback. Assessments included depression (PHQ-9), anxiety (GAD-7), quality of life (SF-12), and major depression risk (predictD algorithm). RESULTS: Six FPs from six Spanish cities enrolled 56 non-depressed patients at moderate-to-high risk of depression; 47 (84%) completed follow-up. The app was used for a median of six days (interquartile range: 1-30). Both FPs and patients expressed satisfaction, leading to incorporated improvements. After three months, significant reductions in major depression risk and anxiety symptoms were observed, alongside improved mental quality of life. However, no significant changes were found in depressive symptoms or physical quality of life. CONCLUSION: This pilot study supports the feasibility and acceptability of the e-predictD &#x3b2;-version, despite lower-than-expected app usability. Health improvements were observed, warranting confirmation in a randomized controlled trial. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03990792.

Adult↗