Recent trends and future prospects of urban-rural migration in Europe.
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The author "has examined trends in interstate migration during the 1970s for the four regions of the United States and, in particular, explored the relationship of this migration with nonmetropolitan expansion and the return to the city movement. The data show that the former trend is a very real one which has persisted throughout the decade and that population growth through interstate migration in nonmetropolitan America is, on balance, the result of nonblacks moving to the South from elsewhere in the nation. Except in the West, central cities continue to experience substantial losses of population through interstate migration. Interstate migration continues to be directed toward suburbs, and is especially vigorous in the West." Data are from the March 1975 and March 1979 Current Population Surveys.
The long-term aspects of the process of economic development and urbanization are examined. A model is presented that shows the dynamics of economic development from the earliest to the more advanced stages. "The model is able to explain not only the occurrence of a downturn in the rural population after the initial phase of population growth both in rural and urban areas, but also the delayed occurrence of such a downturn in many present-day developing countries. The author then focuses [on] the later stages of economic development and explains two alternative courses of urbanization, namely, the reversal process and the continual-growth process, as special cases of the general model; which of the courses occurs depends on the value of the elasticity of urban agglomeration-economies."
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"Using preliminary figures from the 1981 Census, this paper details recent population shifts at a variety of areal scales in England and Wales. It compares trends in the 1971-1981 period with those in the previous decade and assesses the relative contributions of net migration and natural change. Within its broad descriptive objectives, the paper considers whether England and Wales has kept abreast of patterns of counter-urbanization that have been claimed for other industrialized nations." The authors propose some definitions for various terms, including decentralization, deconcentration, and counter-urbanization. "The conclusion is drawn that even if the postulated international continuum of changes ranging from urbanization through to counter-urbanization is valid, the limited geographical size of England and Wales will preclude this country from reaching the final stages of such a model. Finally, some policy implications which stem from the recent population redistributions are introduced and some themes for future research are considered."
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"During the last few decades migration in Central Mexico has undergone important changes. Not only have populations been moving increasingly towards the periphery and decreasingly towards the center, but those originally living in the center are also moving to the immediate periphery. This behavior allows us to claim that Central Mexico is undergoing a process of deconcentration or suburbanization. This study describes the way in which such a process has developed and the situation of geographical entities within that process. Analysis of the new regional configuration takes into account demographic growth and the direction and characteristics of migration in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area and its surrounding states during the last twenty years." (SUMMARY IN ENG)
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Factors affecting migration from metropolitan to nonmetropolitan areas of the United States are explored using a time-series model of annual net migration in Minnesota for the period 1951 to 1978. The importance of economic factors is emphasized. The authors "also found support for the null hypothesis of exogeneity of nonmetropolitan unemployment, the economic influence on migration that is most likely to be endogenous. The results of Chow Tests indicate that changes in the portion of migration behavior...investigated reflect stable responses to changes in economic incentives."
The extent to which counterurbanization is affecting rural population dynamics in southern Europe is explored using the example of Andalucia, Spain. "The purpose of this paper is to ask, in the context of Andalucia, whether an emergent counterurbanization trend is evident in a traditional area of rural population decline in southern Europe. More broadly, it raises questions about whether the concept counterurbanization helps or hinders our understanding of rural migration."
The authors examine the impact of counterurbanization in England. They "try and unravel how household turnover and in-migration selectivity are effecting rural change, and how local communities and policy-makers are responding to that change, in a number of villages in East Northamptonshire, a rural district in the heart of 'shire' England." The focus is on the extent to which the incoming households differ from those they replace, thus changing the socioeconomic characteristics of the rural population. The impact of such migration on the housing market is noted.
"This paper...argues that a reconciliation between...different explanations of counterurbanization can possibly be achieved, but will require the pursuit of a more nuanced analysis of the detailed unfolding of the migration process. Such an analysis involves examining the migration from the migrant's perspective. In particular, we need to recognize the variety of both spatial scales and experiential environments that may be involved in any one act of migration." The geographic focus is on England.
"Recently, the concept of differential urbanization was introduced. It conceptually links the processes of urbanization, polarization reversal, and counterurbanization across the development spectrum in the First and Third Worlds. Based on supporting evidence in developed and less developed countries, this study expands the theoretical foundation of the concept by first focusing on a graphical analysis of the processes of urbanization, polarization reversal, and counterurbanization. Secondly, it looks into the explanations given for counterurbanization. Thirdly, factors likely to influence post-counterurban migration trends are discussed, and finally, the relevance of certain causes of differential urbanization given in the literature are explored."
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The authors use survey data collected in 1990 from 418 household heads of recent settlements in the Ecuadorian Amazon to study the extent of and reasons for out-migration of the settlers' children. "Our research identifies the types and incidence of out-migration of young adults from settler households in the Ecuadorian Amazon, as well as the effects of individual and household-level factors of out-migration. Important gender differences in both the levels and patterns of migration and in the factors affecting migration decisions are documented."