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Estimating the distribution of times from HIV seroconversion to AIDS using multiple imputation. Multicentre AIDS Cohort Study.

Multiple imputation is a model based technique for handling missing data problems. In this application we use the technique to estimate the distribution of times from HIV seroconversion to AIDS diagnosis with data from a cohort study of 4954 homosexual men with 4 years of follow-up. In this example the missing data are the dates of diagnosis with AIDS. The imputation procedure is performed in two stages. In the first stage, we estimate the residual AIDS-free time distribution as a function of covariates measured on the study participants with data provided by the participants who were seropositive at study entry. Specifically, we assume the residual AIDS-free times follow a log-normal regression model that depends on the covariates measured at enrolment on the seropositive participants. In the second stage we impute the date of AIDS diagnosis for the participants who seroconverted during the course of the study and are AIDS-free with use of the log-normal distribution estimated in the first stage and the covariates from each seroconverter's latest visit. The estimated proportions developing AIDS within 4 and within 7 years of seroconversion are 15 and 36 per cent respectively, with associated 95 per cent confidence intervals of (10, 21) and (26, 47) per cent. We discuss the Bayesian foundations of the multiple imputation technique and the statistical and scientific assumptions.

AIDS Serodiagnosis

Single-channel data and missed events: analysis of a two-state Markov model.

Patch-clamp recording permits investigation of the gating kinetics of single ion channels. Careful statistical analysis of kinetic data can yield clues as to the molecular events underlying channel gating. However, it is important that such analysis should take full account of the limitations that arise from the finite time resolution of patch-clamp recording techniques. Single-ion-channel data are generally interpreted in terms of Markov process models of channel gating mechanisms. Experimental channel records suffer from time interval omission, i.e. failure to detect brief channel openings and closings. This leads to an identifiability problem when analysing single-channel data, i.e. different gating mechanisms provide equally convincing descriptions of the same experimental data. We consider a two-state Markov model of receptor-channel gating in which the channel opening rate is proportional to the agonist concentration, C in equilibrium with OA. By using computer-simulated data, the approximate likelihood of the data is maximized to yield parameter estimates for the model. At a single agonist concentration there is an identifiability problem in that two pairs of parameter estimates are obtained. The 'true' parameter estimates cannot be distinguished from the 'false' ones. By considering data corresponding to a range of agonist concentrations one may identify the 'true' parameter estimates as those that do not change as the agonist concentration is increased. Alternatively, one may identify the 'true' parameter estimates directly by maximizing a global likelihood, the latter being obtained by simultaneous consideration of data obtained at several different agonist concentrations.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Animals

Efficacy and safety of deucravacitinib, an oral, selective tyrosine kinase 2 inhibitor, in patients with active psoriatic arthritis: 52-week results from the randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase 3 POETYK PsA-1 trial.

OBJECTIVES: The randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 Program fOr Evaluation of TYK2 inhibitor Psoriatic Arthritis-1 (POETYK PsA-1) trial evaluated the efficacy, safety, and tolerability of deucravacitinib, an oral, selective tyrosine kinase 2 inhibitor, in patients with PsA na&#xef;ve to biologic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs. METHODS: Adults with active PsA, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein concentration &#x2265; 3 mg/L, and &#x2265; 1 PsA-related hand and/or foot erosion detectable via radiograph were randomised 1:1 to oral deucravacitinib 6 mg once daily or placebo through week (W) 16. At W16, patients continued receiving deucravacitinib or switched from placebo to deucravacitinib through W52. The primary endpoint was American College of Rheumatology 20% improvement in response (ACR20) at W16. Nonresponder imputation was used for missing data. Efficacy and safety were evaluated through W52. Post hoc rank analysis of covariance was used to evaluate structural damage with no missing data imputation. RESULTS: In 670 patients, a significantly greater proportion of those receiving deucravacitinib vs placebo achieved ACR20 at W16 (54.2% vs 34.1%, P < .001). Responses with deucravacitinib were increased at W52. Patients who switched from placebo to deucravacitinib achieved improvements similar to those in patients who received continuous deucravacitinib. Inhibition of structural damage was observed at W16 and W52. At W16, incidences of serious adverse events (AEs) (deucravacitinib, 1.8%; placebo, 2.4%) and discontinuations due to AEs (2.4%; 1.8%) were low and remained low through W52, without imbalances in cardiovascular events, malignancies, or opportunistic infections. No new safety signals were detected; no deaths occurred. CONCLUSIONS: Deucravacitinib demonstrated superiority vs placebo for clinical responses, patient-reported outcomes, and structural damage inhibition in patients with PsA, with favourable tolerability and safety.

Humans

Analysis strategies for serial multivariate ultrasonographic data that are incomplete.

Ultrasonographic measurement of intima-media thickness in the carotid artery has emerged as an important non-invasive means of assessing atherosclerosis, and has served to define primary outcome measures related to progression of arterial lesions in several large clinical trials and epidemiologic studies. It is characteristic that measurements often cannot be obtained from all sites during repeated examinations. This leads to incomplete multivariate serial data, for which the set and number of visualized sites may vary across time. We have contrasted several conditional and unconditional maximum likelihood analytical approaches, and have evaluated these with a simulation experiment based on characteristics of ultrasound measurements collected during the course of the Asymptomatic Carotid Artery Plaque Study. We examined analyses based on unweighted and generalized least squares regression in which we estimated cross-sectional summary statistics using raw means, unconditional maximum likelihood estimates and full maximum likelihood estimates. Since the genesis of missing data is not fully clear, and since the approaches we examined are based, to some degree, on the assumption that data are missing at random, we also examined the relative impact of deviations from such an assumption on each of the approaches considered. We found that maximum likelihood based approaches increased the expected efficiency of the analysis of serial ultrasound data over ignoring missing data by up to 21 per cent.

Arteriosclerosis

Prevalence and patterns of same-gender sexual contact among men.

The prevalence and patterns of same-gender sexual contact among men are key components of models of the spread of HIV infection and AIDS in the U.S. population. Previous estimates by Kinsey et al. from data collected between 1938 and 1948 have been widely criticized for inadequacies of sample design. New lower-bound estimates of prevalence developed from data from a national sample survey conducted in 1970 indicate that minimums of 20.3 percent of adult men in the United States in 1970 had sexual contact to orgasm with another man at some time in life; 6.7 percent had such contact after age 19; and between 1.6 and 2.0 percent had such contact within the previous year. Although these estimates incorporate adjustments for missing data, the likelihood of underreporting suggests that these estimates might be lower bounds on the prevalence of same-gender sex among men. Two sets of alternative estimates are derived to assess the sensitivity of these estimates to the assumptions made in imputing values to missing data. Detailed estimates are presented by frequency of contact, age, education, and marital status; and supporting estimates are derived from a 1988 national survey. Data from both the 1970 and 1988 surveys indicate that never-married men are more likely than other men to have had same-gender sexual contacts within the last year. The 1970 survey also indicates, however, that approximately half the men estimated to have such contacts are found among the more numerous population of currently or previously married men.

Adult

Digital Mindfulness Intervention for Pregnant Women With Affective Disorders and Acute Stress Reactions: Prespecified Secondary Analysis of a Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Pregnant women with ICD-10 (International Statistical Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision) affective or stress-related disorders face an elevated risk of perinatal depression and anxiety, yet evidence on digital nonpharmacologic interventions for this population remains limited. OBJECTIVE: This study evaluated the effectiveness of an 8-week digital mindfulness-based intervention (eMBI) compared with treatment as usual (TAU) among pregnant women with ICD-10 affective or stress-related disorders participating in a randomized controlled trial (RCT). METHODS: This prespecified secondary analysis was conducted within a multicenter RCT in Baden-W&#xfc;rttemberg, Germany. Pregnant women aged 18 years and older with elevated depressive symptoms (Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale [EPDS]>9) and ICD-10-diagnosed affective or stress-related disorders were randomized 1:1 to eMBI or TAU. The intervention consisted of 8 weekly app-based mindfulness sessions (45 min each) delivered during gestational weeks 29-36, with no direct therapist contact. The primary outcome was continuous depressive symptom severity measured with the EPDS at 4-6 weeks post partum. Secondary outcomes included the EPDS at 6 months post partum, generalized anxiety (State-Trait Anxiety Inventory-State [STAI-S], State-Trait Anxiety Inventory-Trait [STAI-T]), and Pregnancy-Related Anxiety Questionnaire-Revised (PRAQ-R). Analyses followed the intention-to-treat (ITT) principle, using mixed models for repeated measures and multiple imputation. RESULTS: Of the 5299 screened women, 147 met the inclusion criteria for this subgroup analysis (intervention group [IG] had n=73 women and control group had n=74 women). Groups were comparable at baseline. The IG showed significantly greater reductions in EPDS scores at gestational week 34 (&#x394;=-2.21, P=.01), week 36 (&#x394;=-3.25, P=.01), and 4-6 weeks post partum (&#x394;=-4.81, P=.007). Treatment effects remained robust under conservative missing-data assumptions. At 4-6 weeks post partum, a higher proportion of participants in the IG achieved clinically meaningful improvement (31/73, 42.5% vs 21/74, 28.4%; adjusted odds ratio 1.56, 95% CI 1.19-2.05; P=.001). Anxiety outcomes followed a similar pattern, whereas pregnancy-related anxiety did not differ between groups. CONCLUSIONS: In this prespecified subgroup of pregnant women with ICD-10 affective or stress-related disorders, the eMBI was associated with clinically meaningful reductions in depressive symptoms from late pregnancy to 4-6 weeks post partum. Effects at 6 months post partum were attenuated and less stable across missing-data assumptions. These findings support eMBIs as a scalable, nonpharmacological adjunct to perinatal mental health care for women with affective or stress-related disorders, while confirmation in adequately powered trials with strategies to reduce postpartum attrition is warranted.

Humans

Performance characteristics of a composite multivariate quality control system.

We present the results of an evaluation of the performance characteristics of a composite multivariate quality control (CMQC) system that incorporates quality control rules for univariate, multivariate, and correlation conditions. The CMQC system evaluated is designed to help analysts detect unacceptable trends and systematic error in one or more variables, unacceptable random error in one or more variables, and unacceptable changes in the correlation structure of any pair of variables. It is also designed to be tolerant of missing data, to allow analysts to reject as few as one or as many as all variables in a run, and to provide analysts with control statistics and graphics that logically relate to sources of analytical error. We show that the various components of the CMQC system have adequate statistical power to detect systematic errors, random errors, and correlation changes under the conditions likely to be encountered with multivariate analytical measurement systems: (1) a single variable with increased systematic or random error; (2) all variables or a subgroup of variables affected by a common problem that increases systematic or random error; and (3) missing data for one or more variables in a run. We also show that the power of the multivariate component of the CMQC system to detect systematic and random errors is higher than the power of an alternative multivariate test criterion.

Chemistry Techniques, Analytical

[Study on distribution form of mesiodistal crown diameter in large sample: Part II].

The purpose of this research was to examine the distribution of the tooth size in a large sample. The objective teeth were the left upper and lower fourteen teeth except the third molar. The tooth size of 1,000 dental casts from the Japanese female orthodontic patients was measured. On each of them, a histogram and a set of statistics (mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, skewness, kurtosis, Geary value) are given in order to examine the distribution. The findings are as follows: 1) Each tooth may be classified into the following four types of distribution except the congenitally missing data. TYPE I: A normal distribution was observed in the upper and lower central incisors, the lower lateral incisor, the lower canine, the upper and lower first premolars, the upper second premolar, the upper and lower first molars and the lower second molar. TYPE II: A positively skewed distribution was observed in the lower second premolar. TYPE III: A negatively skewed and leptokurtic distribution was observed in the upper canine and the upper second molar. TYPE IV: An extremely negatively skewed and leptokurtic distribution was observed in upper lateral incisor. 2) With the four teeth which were classified into TYPE II, TYPE III and TYPE IV, the distribution of the lower second premolar was concluded to be of normal distribution by logarithmic transformation. The distribution of the upper canine and the upper second molar was judged to be of lognormal distribution and the upper lateral incisor also was judged to be of three parameter lognormal distribution and four parameter lognormal distribution. 3) The distribution of thirteen teeth except the upper lateral incisor was judged to be of normal distribution, by considering the congenitally missing data and the outlier in statistical data of the tooth.

Asian People

Pre-natal blood lead levels and learning difficulties in children: an analysis of non-randomly missing categorical data.

This paper presents an analysis of categorical variables subject to non-response. We incorporate the incomplete data into the analysis by modelling the distribution of the variables of interest and the non-response mechanism. We discuss issues of model selection and interpretation and the effect of discarding incomplete observations. In addition, we describe how to perform all of the computations with standard statistical software. We discuss the problem of incomplete categorical data within the context of a study of the effect of lead exposure on learning difficulties in children. In this study, many of the children are not observed on some of the variables of interest. It is particularly important in this study to incorporate the incomplete data, since there is evidence that non-response is related to the variables of interest. We reach different conclusions when we incorporate the incomplete data into the analysis than we reach when we discard the incomplete data. We also examine the sensitivity of our conclusions to the choice of a model for the non-response mechanism.

Algorithms

Correcting single channel data for missed events.

Interpretation of currents recorded from single ion channels in cellular membranes or lipid bilayers is complicated by the necessarily limited time resolution of the recording and detection systems. All intervals less than a certain duration, depending on the frequency response of the system, are not detected. Such missed events produce increases in the durations of observed open and shut intervals. In order to obtain the true kinetic scheme and rate constants underlying the observed activity, it is necessary to take into account missed events. We develop methods to correct for missed events for models with two or more states, including models with multiple open and shut states, compound states, and loops. Our methods can be used in a forward direction to predict observed distributions of open and shut intervals for a given kinetic scheme and time resolution. They can also be used in a backwards direction with iterative methods to determine rate constants consistent with the observed distributions. While a given kinetic scheme with rate constants predicts unique observed distributions of open and shut intervals, rate constants determined from observed distributions are not necessarily unique. Using these correction methods, we examine the effects of missed events for a five-state model consistent with some properties of large conductance Ca-activated K channels.

Ion Channels

Research in physical medicine and rehabilitation. VIII. Preliminary data analysis.

This paper describes important aspects of preliminary data analysis to be taken after data are checked for clerical entry errors and before the primary statistical analysis is performed. These include description and graphic display of each variable, recoding categorical data, transforming continuous data into another continuous variable and recoding continuous to categorical data. Missing values and outlying data points are identified and several techniques are recommended to minimize mistakes in variable recoding. Related variables measured with different units may be combined by using the z transformation and converted back to one of the original units for ease of interpretation. Finally, both categorical and continuous variables are checked for reliability by using kappa or the intraclass R.

Data Collection

Interdisciplinary approach to assessing the health risk of air toxic chemicals: an overview.

To assist the regulatory branch of the Environmental Protection Agency in addressing the risk assessment of air toxics, the Health Effects Research Laboratory initiated a comprehensive inhalation toxicology program to provide key health effects data missing from the current data base. A priority ranking of chemicals based on the potential for substantial human exposure and the need for health effects data was developed to identify candidate chemicals for toxicological research. The major goal of the program is to evaluate the concentration-response from acute, intermittent and subchronic inhalation exposures to developmental, genetic, hepatic, immunologic, neurologic, pulmonary and reproductive toxicity in a manner that provides data for the regulatory health assessment of air toxic chemicals. Extrapolation and dosimetry research is also conducted to improve the basis for human risk assessment. Determination of biological endpoints to be examined will be decided on a compound-by-compound basis, depending on the physical, chemical and structural characteristics of the chemical and evaluation of the existing health data base. Although the main emphasis is on inhalation as the primary route of exposure, some of the laboratories will compare inhalation to other routes, such as oral, to better understand the influence of route of exposure and hence the potential applicability of existing health data. Acute and intermittent exposures will be done for all compounds. Upon evaluation of the acute results, a decision will be made as to whether subchronic studies are needed. Endpoints that show unusual sensitivity may be investigated in greater detail. The total length of exposure will vary from 1 to 21 days. The daily length of exposure will range from 1 to 8 hr. If adverse effects are observed at ambient levels, the time to recovery after exposure will be investigated.

Administration, Inhalation

Poor agreement of occupational data between a hospital-based cancer registry and interview.

With occupation recognized as a risk factor for various cancers, collecting occupation and industry data by a number of vital registries, including cancer registries, has developed. Registries may be data sources for cancer etiology research and occupational disease surveillance, despite concerns that their data are fragmentary and may lack validity. To improve completeness and validity of occupational information in a hospital-based cancer registry, this study compared information obtained through abstracting medical records for the registry with information obtained through lung-cancer patient interviews. Employing the kappa statistic, agreement was generally poor, largely due to data missing in the medical record. Data quality of hospital-based cancer registries can be improved by employing trained cancer registrars to elicit occupational histories from patients.

Data Collection

Time-series analysis--cosinor analysis: a special case.

Cosinor analysis provides an accessible means of evaluating and estimating the parameter of a cyclic phenomenon. Cosinor analysis does not require that the data be equal intervals without missing data. Cosinor analysis does require that the data can reasonably be considered to take the form of a deterministic cycle with a known period.

Humans

Validation of malaria surveillance case reports: implications for studies of malaria risk.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to investigate the quality of national malaria surveillance reports in the United Kingdom. DESIGN: Persons with malaria reported to the Malaria Reference Laboratory (MRL) in 1987 were contacted by post to verify existing records with respect to key variables. The MRL data set was then analysed for inaccuracies. SETTING: The study was confined to UK residents. PARTICIPANTS: 602 persons with malaria in 1987 responded (53%). MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Review of case reports showed few missing data except for duration of residence in the UK, detailed chemoprophylactic regimens, and compliance. There were more missing surveillance data in reports of ethnic minority groups, principally in dates of travel (p = 0.008) and chemoprophylaxis use (p less than 0.0001). Patient recall in the survey was at variance with the surveillance reports in dates of travel and onset of infection, chemoprophylaxis use, and in compliance. Surveillance reports overestimated the number of days between leaving a malarious area and onset of symptoms (by 9 d for P falciparum and by 24 d for P vivax), and underestimated the delay between onset and diagnosis of P falciparum by 3 d. Over 50% of patients who had recalled the use of chloroquine, proguanil, pyrimethamine/dapsone, and pyrimethamine had not been recorded as having taken these drugs on the surveillance reports. Reported compliance also differed between the two data sets. CONCLUSIONS: It is recommended that research units test the quality of their surveillance data before embarking on analytical studies used to generate health policy guidelines.

Adult

Repeated measures designs in behavioral toxicology: application to chronic marijuana smoke exposure.

This paper discusses the application of repeated measures methods in the statistical analysis of an experiment in behavioral toxicology. The chronic marijuana smoke exposure study conducted at the National Center for Toxicological Research is used for an example of the types of problems that one encounters in analyzing these types of studies. In particular, the standard univariate analysis most frequently used for repeated measures analyses has some very restrictive assumptions on the form of the covariance matrices. These assumptions are not met in the example discussed and are rarely met in many other problems. Other possible models for analyzing repeated measures when these assumptions are not met are presented and discussed. Other problems specific to the chronic marijuana smoke exposure study that may occur in similar type studies are presented. These include pooling the experimental units into groups with comparable baselines, choosing a function of the measures to be analyzed, dealing with a large data set with many observation times and missing data, unequal group sizes and different designs for different subsets of the experimental animals. The standard univariate repeated measures analysis was chosen to analyze the data even though the violations of the covariance assumptions may lead to finding differences that do not exist (Type I or false-positive errors), since the other methods presented also had covariance assumptions that were not met or had low power. Use of Bonferroni-type multiple comparisons on the single degree of freedom contrasts of interest hopefully reduced the chances of these false-positive results.

Analysis of Variance