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Results for “population viability”

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PubMed1999

Numerically exploring habitat fragmentation effects on populations using cell-based coupled map lattices.

We examine habitat size, shape, and arrangement effects on populations using a discrete reaction-diffusion model. Diffusion is modeled passively and applied to a cellular grid of territories forming a coupled map lattice. Dispersal mortality is proportional to the amount of nonhabitat and fully occupied habitat surrounding a given cell, with distance decay. After verifying that our model produces the results expected for single patches of uniform habitat, we investigate heterogeneous and fragmented model landscapes. In heterogeneous single-patch systems near critical patch size, populations approach Gaussian spatial distributions with total population constrained by the capacity of the most limiting cell. In fragmented habitat landscapes, threshold effects are more complex and parametrically sensitive. The results from our experiments suggest the following: the ability to achieve persistence in hyperdispersed patchy habitats by adding similarly fragmented patches requires meeting threshold reproduction rates; persistent metapopulations in which no local population is individually persistent appear when dispersal distances and reproduction rates are both high, but only within narrow parameter ranges that are close to extinction thresholds; successful use of stepping-stone patches to support metapopulation systems appears unlikely for passively diffusing species; elongated patches offer early colonization advantages, but blocky patches offer greater population resilience near extinction thresholds. A common theme running through our findings is that population viability estimates may depend on our ability to determine when population and habitat systems are approaching extinction threshold conditions.

Animals↗

PubMed1999

Variation Thresholds for Extinction and Their Implications for Conservation Strategies.

We examine the degree to which fitting simple dynamic models to time series of population counts can predict extinction probabilities. This is both an active branch of ecological theory and an important practical topic for resource managers. We introduce an approach that is complementary to recently developed techniques for estimating extinction risks (e.g., diffusion approximations) and, like them, requires only count data rather than the detailed ecological information available for traditional population viability analyses. Assuming process error, we use four different models of population growth to generate snapshots of population dynamics via time series of the lengths commonly available to ecologists. We then ask to what extent we can identify which of several broad classes of population dynamics is evident in the time series snapshot. Along the way, we introduce the idea of "variation thresholds," which are the maximum amount of process error that a population may withstand and still have a specified probability of surviving for a given length of time. We then show how these thresholds may be useful to both ecologists and resource managers, particularly when dealing with large numbers of poorly understood species, a common problem faced by those designing biodiversity reserves.

extinction risk↗

PubMed1992

Enhancing monoclonal antibodies and hybridoma cell lines.

We are interested in determining the range of variants present in a cell population that can actually be isolated. We have used subcloning and sublining to search for variants with increased antibody stability, increased cell line stability to freezing and defrosting, increased cell population viability, increased antibody production and the ability to grow in simpler media. This paper presents the case histories of several different hybridoma cell lines which required some property changed before they became production ready clones. We found that switching the class of an antibody from IgG3 to IgG1 did increase its stability, decrease its tendency to aggregate and allowed it to be used in a commercial diagnostic kit. We could isolate subclones that produced twice the level of antibody with a frequency of 1-3%. It was straight forward to isolate clones that were stable to freezing and defrosting or grew in a simpler media. We were not successful in increasing the maximum viability of a cell line. In conclusion, we have found that any population of hybridoma cells has natural variants with significantly enhanced properties that can be isolated.

Animals↗

PubMed1997

Anhydrobiosis in yeast: activation effect.

Intracellular substances released into the medium during rehydration of dry yeast cells can significantly improve the quality of a synthetic medium. Acceleration of yeast growth in this medium and increased yield of biomass are observed simultaneously. The change in the molecular arrangement of intracellular membranes as a result of the strong dehydration of live organisms is a negative phenomenon that reduces the level of cell viability. However, this phenomenon also represents an adaptive mechanisms which facilitates the maintenance of population viability as a whole under extreme environmental conditions.

Rehydration Solutions↗

PubMed1989

Field study comparing growth and viability of a population of phototrophic bacteria.

The growth and viability of an anoxygenic, phototrophic bacterial community in the hypolimnion of Zaca Lake, Calif., were compared throughout the summer. The community is dominated by a single species, "Thiopedia rosea," that inhabits the entire hypolimnion (6 to 8 m) for approximately 11 months. Suboptimal conditions in the hypolimnion (extremely low light intensity, high or low H(2)S levels) result in zero or extremely low growth rates (doubling times > 1 month) for most of the population, most of the time, yet cells remain viable and capable of high specific growth rates (doubling times of 1 to 10 days) when placed under favorable conditions (higher light intensities and temperatures). We first conclude that phototrophic bacterial populations in situ may frequently exist in a viable yet nongrowing state. Second, the viability of cells is likely to be reduced with depth owing to higher concentrations of potentially toxic chemicals and to changes in the physiological state associated with the prolonged periods of darkness commonly found at the bottom of bacterial plates.

Journal Article↗

PubMed2001

Demography and pedigree structure of an SPF colony of rhesus monkeys (Macaca mulatta).

The SPF rhesus colony at the M.D. Anderson Cancer Center in Bastrop, Texas, was analyzed with the aim of determining the demographic and genetic effects of stringent selection for virus-free breeders, permanent quarantine, continued surveillance, and culling of animals that show evidence of viral infection. The analysis shows minimal effects on population viability and loss of genetic variability in comparison with the traditionally managed (non-SPF) portion of the population.

Animal Husbandry↗

PubMed2000

Problems in Extinction Model Selection and Parameter Estimation.

It is a vexing problem to achieve a consensus about the proper scientific way to assess population viability for habitat conservation plans. Rather than a hypothesis-testing approach, here it is proposed to select population models, estimate extinction parameters, and assess prediction uncertainty using a pragmatic, empirical Bayesian approach. The simplest usable models include the effects of population growth, r; carrying capacity, K; Allee threshold, N(A); and environmental stochasticity, v(r). Analytic predictions of expected extinction times are available for such models. Models that are more complex can be elaborated from this basis. Selection from a hierarchy of nesting population models can often be done through the evaluation of parameters. The estimation of the most important extinction parameters can be undertaken in a variety of ways. Time series can be analyzed to estimate r(d), v(r), rho, and K. Habitat models and individualistic population models may help estimate N(A) and K and demographic stochasticity. Fine-scale biogeography and climatological data may be useful in the estimation of a variety of parameters. Because it takes many years to estimate extinction parameters accurately for a given population of interest, the most efficient estimation procedures are desirable. I propose the use of prior information from an (as yet nonexistent) population biology database. The accumulation of local information through monitoring will improve our estimates allowing adaptive management. Uncertainty in the estimates will always remain, but it may be quantified by the posterior distributions. A crude example is discussed using treefrog population data. Although the motivations, beliefs, and biases of competing stakeholders will differ, a habitat conservation plan could accommodate this variation in the prior distributions. Field experience from monitoring will increasingly clear up any discrepancies between the opposing beliefs and the real ecosystem. As the world is an uncertain place and because there is no universal scientific method, there will always be controversy and surprises. The best we can do is (1) agree about our prior information, (2) agree about the strategy of model selection and parameter estimation, and (3) agree about our strategy for adaptive management. Perhaps the greatest impediment to such prior agreements for HCPs is the likely paranoia inspired by the use of unfamiliar statistical methodology. We need to train students of ecology in a more flexible and deeper understanding of statistics and philosophy of science.

Journal Article↗

PubMed2005

Counting primates for conservation: primate surveys in Uganda.

Primate census techniques have been developed over the past 35-40 years yet there is still some confusion and great variation in the methods used. This precludes comparisons between sites where different techniques have been used. This paper discusses the variations between the methods that seem to be practiced currently and then describes a census of primates in the forests of western Uganda. Primate density and biomass varied greatly between forests as well as within forests and this is probably related to food availability. Chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes) density was strongly correlated with nest encounter rates from reconnaissance walks in the forest. This result can be used to estimate chimpanzee density in forests where it is difficult to survey this species (e.g., due to security reasons). A total of 4,980 chimpanzee was estimated for Uganda which is higher than previously guessed, but still of conservation concern. Only four forests had more than 500 individuals which gives concern for long-term population viability.

Animals↗

PubMed2005

Genetic resource impacts of habitat loss and degradation; reconciling empirical evidence and predicted theory for neotropical trees.

The theoretical impacts of anthropogenic habitat degradation on genetic resources have been well articulated. Here we use a simulation approach to assess the magnitude of expected genetic change, and review 31 studies of 23 neotropical tree species to assess whether empirical case studies conform to theory. Major differences in the sensitivity of measures to detect the genetic health of degraded populations were obvious. Most studies employing genetic diversity (nine out of 13) found no significant consequences, yet most that assessed progeny inbreeding (six out of eight), reproductive output (seven out of 10) and fitness (all six) highlighted significant impacts. These observations are in line with theory, where inbreeding is observed immediately following impact, but genetic diversity is lost slowly over subsequent generations, which for trees may take decades. Studies also highlight the ecological, not just genetic, consequences of habitat degradation that can cause reduced seed set and progeny fitness. Unexpectedly, two studies examining pollen flow using paternity analysis highlight an extensive network of gene flow at smaller spatial scales (less than 10 km). Gene flow can thus mitigate against loss of genetic diversity and assist in long-term population viability, even in degraded landscapes. Unfortunately, the surveyed studies were too few and heterogeneous to examine concepts of population size thresholds and genetic resilience in relation to life history. Future suggested research priorities include undertaking integrated studies on a range of species in the same landscapes; better documentation of the extent and duration of impact; and most importantly, combining neutral marker, pollination dynamics, ecological consequences, and progeny fitness assessment within single studies.

Computer Simulation↗

PubMed2005

Conservation genetics of amphibians.

Amphibians are good models for investigating the genetics of wild animal populations because they are: (1) widely distributed in most ecosystems; (2) easy to sample in breeding assemblages; (3) often philopatric to breeding sites, generating high levels of population genetic structure; (4) amenable to controlled crossings in the laboratory; and (5) of major conservation concern. Neutral genetic markers, mostly microsatellites, have been used successfully in studies of amphibian effective population sizes and structures, and in assessing the consequences of hybridisation. Phylogeography has provided important insights into population histories and the fates of introductions. Quantitative genetic methods have demonstrated adaptive variation in life history traits of importance to fitness and therefore to population viability.

Amphibians↗

PubMed2005

Population-level effects of male-biased broods in eelpout (Zoarces viviparus).

Effects of environmental pollutants are most obvious when mortality is increased. However, there are other nonlethal factors that may affect population size significantly. Endocrine disruption as a mechanism of action for pollutants recently has received much attention. Observations of effects likely caused by endocrine disruptors in pulp mill effluents have been made on several fish species, e.g., male-biased broods in eelpout (Zoarces viviparus). Fewer females represent a lower fecundity and could have dramatic effects on the population. In this study, a population viability analysis of the effects of skewed primary sex ratios in the eelpout was conducted using a female-based matrix population model. The model is age-structured with one deterministic version and another that incorporates environmental stochasticity. The model showed that the deterministic and stochastic growth rates in an undisturbed population (50% female fry) were 1.172 and 1.075, respectively, compared to 1.097 and 1.007 using the lowest proportion of female fry observed (38.7%). When primary sex ratios were more male-biased, the probability of pseudoextinction increased. Model simulations showed that the probability of a decreased population size to 5% of the initial within a 100-year time horizon was 44.7% with 38.7% female fry compared to only 7.7% for an undisturbed population.

Age Factors↗

PubMed2003

Census vs. effective population size in chinook salmon: large- and small-scale environmental perturbation effects.

Population viability has often been assessed by census of reproducing adults. Recently this method has been called into question and estimation of the effective population size (Ne) proposed as a complementary method to determine population health. We examined genetic diversity in five populations of chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) from the upper Fraser River watershed (British Columbia, Canada) at 11 microsatellite loci over 20 years using DNA extracted from archived scale samples. We tested for changes in genetic diversity, calculated the ratio of the number of alleles to the range in allele size to give the statistic M, calculated Ne from the temporal change in allele frequency, used the maximum likelihood method to calculate effective population size (NeM), calculated the harmonic mean of population size, and compared these statistics to annual census estimates. Over the last two decades population size has increased in all five populations of chinook examined; however, Ne calculated for each population was low (81-691) and decreasing over the time interval measured. Values of NeM were low, but substantially higher than Ne calculated using the temporal method. The calculated values for M were generally low (M < 0.70), indicating recent population reductions for all five populations. Large-scale historic barriers to migration and development activities do not appear to account for the low values of Ne; however, available spawning area is positively correlated with Ne. Both Ne and M estimates indicate that these populations are potentially susceptible to inbreeding effects and may lack the ability to respond adaptively to stochastic events. Our findings question the practice of relying exclusively on census estimates for interpreting population health and show the importance of determining genetic diversity within populations.

Animals↗

PubMed2006

Dynamical and statistical models of vertebrate population dynamics.

Population dynamics methodology now powerfully combines discrete time models (with constant parameters, density dependence, random environment, and/or demographic stochasticity) and capture-recapture models for estimating demographic parameters. Vertebrate population dynamics has strongly benefited from this progress: survival estimates have been revised upwards, trade-offs between life history traits have been demonstrated, analyses of population viability and management are more and more realistic. Promising developments concern random effects, multistate and integrated models. Some biological questions (density dependence, links between individual and population levels, and diversification of life histories) can now be efficiently attacked.

Animals↗

PubMed2006

Using scalar models for precautionary assessments of threatened species.

Scalar population models, commonly referred to as count-based models, are based on time-series data of population sizes and may be useful for screening-level ecological risk assessments when data for more complex models are not available. Appropriate use of such models for management purposes, however, requires understanding inherent biases that may exist in these models. Through a series of simulations, which compared predictions of risk of decline of scalar and matrix-based models, we examined whether discrepancies may arise from different dynamics displayed due to age structure and generation time. We also examined scalar and matrix-based population models of 18 real populations for potential patterns of bias in population viability estimates. In the simulation study, precautionary bias (i.e., overestimating risks of decline) of scalar models increased as a function of generation time. Models of real populations showed poor fit between scalar and matrix-based models, with scalar models predicting significantly higher risks of decline on average. The strength of this bias was not correlated with generation time, suggesting that additional sources of bias may be masking this relationship. Scalar models can be useful for screening-level assessments, which should in general be precautionary, but the potential shortfalls of these models should be considered before using them as a basis for management decisions.

Aging↗

PubMed1998

Risk of population extinction from fixation of deleterious and reverse mutations.

A model is developed for alternate fixations of mildly deleterious and wild-type alleles arising by forward and reverse mutation in a finite population. For almost all parameter values, this gives an equilibrium load that agrees closely with the general expression derived from diffusion theory. Nearly neutral mutations with selection coefficient a few times larger than 1/(2N(e)) do the most damage by increasing the equilibrium load. The model of alternate fixations facilitates dynamical analysis of the expected load and the mean time to extinction in a population that has been suddenly reduced from a very large size to a small size. Reverse mutation can substantially improve population viability, increasing the mean time to extinction by an order of magnitude or more, but because many mutations are irreversible the effects may not be large. Populations with initially high mean fitness and small effective size, N(e) below a few hundred individuals, may be at serious risk of extinction from fixation of deleterious mutations within 10(3) to 10(4) generations.

Animals↗

PubMed1997

Effective number of breeding adults in Bufo bufo estimated from age-specific variation at minisatellite loci.

Estimates of the effective number of breeding adults were derived for three semi-isolated populations of the common toad Bufo bufo based on temporal (i.e. adult-progeny) variance in allele frequency for three highly polymorphic minisatellite loci. Estimates of spatial variance in allele frequency among populations and of age-specific measures of genetic variability are also described. Each population was characterized by a low effective adult breeding number (Nb) based on a large age-specific variance in minisatellite allele frequency. Estimates of Nb (range 21-46 for population means across three loci) were approximately 55-230-fold lower than estimates of total adult census size. The implications of low effective breeding numbers for long-term maintenance of genetic variability and population viability are discussed relative to the species' reproductive ecology, current land-use practices, and present and historical habitat modification and loss. The utility of indirect measures of population parameters such as Nb and Ne based on time-series data of minisatellite allele frequencies is discussed relative to similar measures estimated from commonly used genetic markers such as protein allozymes.

Alleles↗

PubMed2006

Modeling the demographic effects of endocrine disruptors.

In this article we describe a series of strategic models of populations and individuals subject to challenge by endocrine disruptors. These models are not designed to be fitted to detailed data on specific species but rather are intended to provide general insights on the relative importance of different demographic mechanisms in the population context. Therefore, the models contain the minimum necessary biological detail, but in recompense they are highly accessible to mathematical analysis. We show that, over a range of models with contrasting biological detail, population viability is controlled by the number of female offspring that result from the average female's lifetime reproductive activity. Thus, male fertility changes have little effect at the population level until they become severe enough to reduce this average female output. We argue that in many circumstances endocrine disruptors are likely to produce directly deleterious effects on female fecundity at levels far below those required to reduce male fertility to dangerously low levels. Finally, we formulate a simple model of individual energetics that we argue can form the basis of a strategic discussion of the likely sensitivity of female demographic parameters to chemically induced changes in physiological function.

Animals↗

PubMed2000

Conservation and Management for Multiple Species: Integrating Field Research and Modeling into Management Decisions.

Multiple-species reserves aim at supporting viable populations of selected species. Population viability analysis (PVA) is a group of methods for predicting such measures as extinction risk based on species-specific data. These methods include models that simulate the dynamics of a population or a metapopulation. A PVA model for the California gnatcatcher in Orange County was developed with landscape (GIS) data on the habitat characteristics and requirements and demographic data on population dynamics of the species. The potential applications of this model include sensitivity analysis that provides guidance for planning fieldwork, designing reserves, evaluating management options, and assessing human impact. The method can be extended to multiple species by combining habitat suitability maps for selected species with weights based on the threat faced by each species, and the contribution of habitat patches to the persistence of each species. These applications and extensions, together with the ability of the model to combine habitat and demographic data, make PVA a powerful tool for the design, conservation, and management of multiple species reserves.

Journal Article↗