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Results for “spatially explicit population models”

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PubMed2004

Spatial dynamics of specialist seed predators on synchronized and intermittent seed production of host plants.

Masting, the synchronized and intermittent seed production by plant populations, provides highly variable food resources for specialist seed predators. Such a reproductive mode helps minimize seed losses through predator satiation and extinction of seed predator populations. The seed predators can buffer the resource variation through dispersal or extended diapause. We developed a spatially explicit resource-consumer model to understand the effect of masting on specialist seed predators. The masting dynamics were assumed to follow a resource-based model for plant reproduction, and the population dynamics of the predator were represented by a spatially extended Nicholson-Bailey model. The resultant model demonstrated that when host plants reproduce intermittently, seed predator populations go locally extinct, but global persistence of the predator is facilitated by dispersal or extended diapause. Global extinction of the predator resulted when the intermittent reproduction is highly synchronized among plants. An approximate invasion criterion for the predators showed that negative lag-1 autocorrelation in seeding reduces invasibility, and positive lag-1 cross-correlation enhances invasibility. Spatial synchronization in seeding at local scale caused by pollen coupling (or climate forcing) further prevented invasion of the predators. If the predators employed extended diapause, extremely high temporal variability in reproduction was required for plants to evade the predators.

Animals↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Impact assessment predicted by means of genetic agent-based modeling.

Toxicological effects on ecosystems are complex, and tools that improve our understanding are necessary. Until now, efforts have been ecologically based with no practice of incorporating genetic diversity measurements into risk assessment. However, with the use of geneticists' approaches the information level returned is potentially much higher. The precise genetic consequences of population perturbations result from a complex balance among effects on population substructure, size, and founding events. Hence, there is a need for tools that will support the interpretation of genetic erosion effects in toxicological investigation. Spatially explicit modeling using autonomous agent systems seems to be a promising emerging tool, which can benefit the work of population geneticists, by explicitly incorporating spatiotemporal interactions between the ecology and behavior of individuals and their environment. It is likely that agent-based modeling will be similarly beneficial to toxicologists, and we suggest that combining the agent-based models with toxicology and genetics could have several further useful applications. The combination of agent-based models and genetics is in its infancy, and hence models would be novel in evaluating toxicological impact on genetic composition of populations. Once appropriate validation of both genetic and ecological components is carried out, genetic agent-based models ought to be an appropriate tool to simulate these genetic and ecotoxicological interactions, being sufficiently flexible to mimic real population processes under a range of environmental conditions. Additionally, they can be used to obtain measures for the genetic and demographic status, assessing how different toxicological scenarios affect both genetic and demographic parameters.

Demography↗

PubMed2003

Spatial processes in the evolution of resistance in Helicoverpa zea (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) to Bt transgenic corn and cotton in a mixed agroecosystem: a biology-rich stochastic simulation model.

A simulation model is developed to examine the role of spatial processes in the evolution of resistance in Helicoverpa zea populations to Bt corn and Bt cotton. The model is developed from the stochastic spatially explicit Heliothis virescens model described by Peck et al. (1999), to accommodate a spatial mix of two host crops (corn and cotton), and to reflect the agronomic practices, as well as the spatial and temporal population dynamics of H. zea, in eastern North Carolina. The model suggests that selection for resistance is more intense in Bt cotton fields than in Bt corn fields. It further suggests that local gene frequencies are highly dependent on local deployment levels of Bt crops despite the high mobility of the adult insects. Region-wide average gene frequencies depend on the region-wide level of Bt deployment, so incomplete technology adoption slows the rate of resistance evolution. However, on a local scale, H. zea populations in clusters of fields in which Bt use is high undergo far more rapid evolution than populations in neighboring clusters of fields in which Bt use is low. The model suggests that farm-level refuge requirements are important for managing the risk of resistance. The model can be used as an aid in designing plans for monitoring for resistance by suggesting the appropriate distribution of monitoring locations, which should focus on areas of highest Bt crop deployment. The findings need to be placed in the context of the input parameters, many of which are uncertain or highly variable in nature, and therefore, a thorough sensitivity analysis is warranted.

Agriculture↗

PubMed2004

Effects of insect population size on evolution of resistance to transgenic crops.

Models of the evolution of insect resistance to transgenic crops have often assumed that population size is infinite or that carrying capacity is fixed. To evaluate potential effects of population size on resistance evolution, we conducted sensitivity analyses by using a stochastic, spatially explicit model based partly on the interaction between pink bollworm and Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton. We examined interactions of carrying capacity, region size, dispersal, and percentage of fields planted with Bt cotton. The median and variance in the time to resistance decreased as region size increased, regardless of carrying capacity. This occurred because larger regions were more likely to have at least one field in which resistance evolved rapidly and served as a source from which resistance spread throughout the region. Carrying capacity significantly affected the median time to resistance with 75% of fields planted with Bt cotton, but not with 50% Bt cotton. In contrast, carrying capacity significantly influenced the variance in the time to resistance with 50% Bt cotton, but not with 75% Bt cotton. We also found resistance evolution was affected by interactions between carrying capacity, dispersal, and the percentage of fields planted with Bt cotton. The high variability observed in our simulations indicates that factors affecting stochastic events can play an important role in the evolution of resistance. Because population size determines the extent to which stochastic events are important, reasonable estimates of population size are essential for devising robust models of resistance evolution.

Animals↗

PubMed2001

The consequences of dioecy for seed dispersal: modeling the seed-shadow handicap.

Recent evidence has suggested that clades of dioecious angiosperms have fewer extant species on average than those of cosexual (hermaphroditic and monoecious) relatives. Reasons for the decrease in speciation rates and/or increase in extinction rates are only beginning to be investigated. One possibility is that dioecious species suffer a competitive disadvantage with cosexuals because only half of the individuals in a dioecious population are seed bearing. When only females produce seed, offspring will be more spatially clumped and will experience more local resource competition than when every individual produces seed. We examine two spatially explicit models to determine the effect of a reduction in seed dispersers on the invasibility and persistence of dioecious populations. Even though dioecious females were allowed to produce twice as many seeds as cosexuals, our results show that a reduction in the number of seed dispersers causes a decrease in the ability of dioecious progeny to find uninhabited sites, thus reducing persistence times. These results suggest that the maintenance of dioecy in the presence of hermaphroditic competitors requires a substantial increase in relative fitness and/or a large dispersal advantage of dioecious seeds.

Biological Evolution↗

PubMed2004

Modeling the effect of deregulated proliferation and apoptosis on the growth dynamics of epithelial cell populations in vitro.

We present a three-dimensional individual cell-based, biophysical model to study the effect of normal and malfunctioning growth regulation and control on the spatial-temporal organization of growing cell populations in vitro. The model includes explicit representations of typical epithelial cell growth regulation and control mechanisms, namely 1), a cell-cell contact-mediated form of growth inhibition; 2), a cell-substrate contact-dependent cell-cycle arrest; and 3), a cell-substrate contact-dependent programmed cell death (anoikis). The model cells are characterized by experimentally accessible biomechanical and cell-biological parameters. First, we study by variation of these cell-specific parameters which of them affect the macroscopic morphology and growth kinetics of a cell population within the initial expanding phase. Second, we apply selective knockouts of growth regulation and control mechanisms to investigate how the different mechanisms collectively act together. Thereby our simulation studies cover the growth behavior of epithelial cell populations ranging from undifferentiated stem cell populations via transformed variants up to tumor cell lines in vitro. We find that the cell-specific parameters, and in particular the strength of the cell-substrate anchorage, have a significant impact on the population morphology. Furthermore, they control the efficacy of the growth regulation and control mechanisms, and consequently tune the transition from controlled to uncontrolled growth that is induced by the failures of these mechanisms. Interestingly, however, we find the qualitative and quantitative growth kinetics to be remarkably robust against variations of cell-specific parameters. We compare our simulation results with experimental findings on a number of epithelial and tumor cell populations and suggest in vitro experiments to test our model predictions.

Animals↗

PubMed2003

A spatially explicit individual-based model of reinforcement in hybrid zones.

An individual-based model consisting of two dioecious populations in a two-dimensional environmental grid was constructed. Each population began with, and never exceeded, 1000 individuals; extinction was allowed. Genomes consisting of 30 biallelic loci for male sexual advertisement call, female mate preference, and population origin were constructed, and lineages of each individual in the starting populations were followed for 2000 generations. Type and level of hybrid disadvantage, initial population distribution, patchiness of environmental resources, and level of mate choice were varied. Persistence of bimodal hybrid zones was nonexistent at low levels of hybrid disadvantage and universal at high levels of hybrid disadvantage, with a narrow threshold in which persistence was unpredictable. Persistence occurred at lower levels of hybrid disadvantage when populations were initially parapatric rather than sympatric, and environments were patchy rather than homogeneous. Increased divergence in mating systems occurred when hybrid disadvantage was high, hybrids were infertile, populations were initially parapatric, and increased female choice was allowed. Mating system divergence was much higher in interacting populations compared with noninteracting populations, indicating that reinforcement caused most of the observed divergence. When hybrids were infertile, reinforcement contributed to speciation, because under hybrid infertility the probability of persistence at low levels of hybrid disadvantage was positively related to mate choice. The results agree with previous one-dimensional spatial models in finding that population persistence is more likely in parapatric and patchy population distributions. In addition, the results show that hybrid infertility may facilitate the process of reinforcement and speciation.

Biological Evolution↗

PubMed2001

Aggregate statistical measures and metapopulation dynamics.

There are two main types of metapopulation models. Spatially implicit models are analytically tractable but neglect spatial heterogeneities. Spatially explicit models are more realistic but too complex. In this paper, I build a bridge between both approximations. I derive a new metapopulation model using a well-known technique in population genetics. Spatial heterogeneities are captured by an aggregate statistical measure of spatial correlation. When this correlation is zero, i.e., space is homogeneous, the model becomes the well-known Levins' model. As spatial correlation increases, equilibrium patch occupancy decreases from what would be expected under the spatially homogeneous assumption. I proceed by testing how well spatial complexities from a spatially explicit simulation can be encapsulated by such an aggregate statistical measure.

Animals↗

PubMed2006

Mutation accumulation in space and the maintenance of sexual reproduction.

The maintenance of sexual reproduction remains one of the major puzzles of evolutionary biology, since, all else being equal, an asexual mutant should have a twofold fitness advantage over the sexual wildtype. Most theories suggest that sex helps either to purge deleterious mutations, or to adapt to changing environments. Both mechanisms have their limitations if they act in isolation because they require either high genomic mutation rates or very virulent pathogens, and it is therefore often thought that they must act together to maintain sex. Typically, however, these theories have in common that they are not based on spatial processes. Here, we show that local dispersal and local competition can explain the maintenance of sexual reproduction as a means of purging deleterious mutations. Using a spatially explicit individual-based model, we find that even with reasonably low genomic mutation rates and large total population sizes, asexual clones cannot invade a sexual population. Our results demonstrate how spatial processes affect mutation accumulation such that it can fully erode the twofold benefit of asexuality faster than an asexual clone can take over a sexual population. Thus, the cost of sex is generally overestimated in models that ignore the effects of space on mutation accumulation.

Adaptation, Physiological↗

PubMed2002

Sexually transmitted disease and the evolution of mating systems.

Sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) have been shown to increase the costs of multiple mating and therefore favor relatively monogamous mating strategies. We examine another way in which STDs can influence mating systems in species in which female choice is important. Because more popular males are more likely to become infected, STDs can counteract any selective pressure that generates strong mating skews. We build two models to investigate female mate choice when the sexual behavior of females determines the prevalence of infection in the population. The first model has no explicit social structure. The second model considers the spatial distribution of matings under social monogamy, when females mated to unattractive males seek extrapair fertilizations from attractive males. In both cases, the STD has the potential to drastically reduce the mating skew. However, this reduction does not always happen. If the per contact transmission probability is low, the disease dies out and is of no consequence. In contrast, if the transmission probability is very high, males are likely to be infected regardless of their attractiveness, and mating with the most attractive males imposes again no extra cost for the female. We also show that optimal female responses to the risk of STDs can buffer the prevalence of infection to remain constant, or even decrease, with increasing per contact transmission probabilities. In all cases considered, the feedback between mate choice strategies and STD prevalence creates frequency-dependent fitness benefits for the two alternative female phenotypes considered (choosy vs. randomly mating females or faithful vs. unfaithful females). This maintains mixed evolutionarily stable strategies or polymorphisms in female behavior. In this way, a sexually transmitted disease can stabilize the populationwide proportion of females that mate with the most attractive males or that seek extrapair copulations.

Choice Behavior↗

PubMed2003

Controlling Echinococcus multilocularis-ecological implications of field trials.

Two field trials to reduce the prevalence of Echinococcus multilocularis in foxes have been conducted in recent years. Although both trials reduced prevalence considerably, they failed to eradicate the parasite in the study region. Following the control trial in northern Germany, prevalence recovered unexpectedly and rapidly, reaching pre-control levels five quarters (15 months) after the end of control. To understand the internal dynamics of the parasite-host system's reaction to control, we developed a spatially explicit simulation model, Echi. The simulation model incorporates the information available concerning fox tapeworm population dynamics. Using epidemiological parameters to adjust pre-control prevalence, the model predicts the temporal evolution of the prevalence of E. multilocularis in controlled foxes without departing from the range of uncertainty of the field data. However, the model does not predict the rapid pre-control recovery observed in the field trial. The deviation of the model's prediction from field data indicates the involvement of processes not yet taken into account. We modified the model step by step to mimic processes with the potential to cause the rapid post-control recovery of the prevalence of E. multilocularis in foxes. Neither the longevity of tapeworm eggs nor the migratory behaviour of foxes showed any influence on the post-control reaction of the parasite-host system. However, landscape structures leading to a heterogeneous distribution of infected foxes have the potential to alter the system's reaction to control. If infected foxes are concentrated in multiple clusters in the landscape, the model prediction tallied with the range of uncertainty of the field data. Such spatial distribution of infected foxes may be caused by differential abiotic conditions influencing the survival of tapeworm eggs. The model was found to comply best with field data if the foxes acquire partial immunity by being exposed to the fox tapeworm. Both hypotheses explaining the rapid post-control recovery of the prevalence of E. multilocularis observed in the fox population were supported by field data. Both hypotheses have far-reaching consequences for future control trials. The spatial aggregation of infected foxes would enable control efforts to be concentrated on these highly infected areas. However, the acquisition of immunity acts as a buffer to control, necessitating intensified control measures.

Animals↗

PubMed2006

How does intraspecific density regulation influence metapopulation synchrony and persistence?

Intraspecific density regulation influences the synchronization of local population dynamics through dispersal. Spatial synchrony in turn may jeopardize metapopulation persistence. Joining results from previous studies suggests that spatial synchrony is highest at moderate over-compensation and is low at compensating and at very strong over-compensating density regulation. We scrutinize this supposition of a unimodal relationship using a process-based metapopulation model with explicit local population dynamics. We extend the usually studied range of density regulation to under-compensation and analyse resulting metapopulation persistence. We find peaks of spatial synchrony not only at over-compensatory but also under-compensatory density regulation and show that effects of local density compensation on synchrony follow a bimodal rather than unimodal relationship. Persistence of metapopulations however, shows a unimodal relationship with a broad plateau of high persistence from compensatory to over-compensatory density regulation. This range of high persistence comprises both levels of low and high spatial synchrony. Thus, not synchrony alone jeopardizes metapopulation persistence, but only in interplay with high local extinction risk. The functional forms of the relations of density compensation with spatial synchrony and persistence are robust to increases in dispersal mortality, landscape dynamics, or density dependence of dispersal. However, with each of these increases the maxima of spatial synchrony and persistence shift to higher over-compensation and levels of synchrony are reduced. Overall, for over-compensation high landscape connectivity has negative effects while for under-compensation connectivity affects persistence positively. This emphasizes the importance of species life-history traits for management decisions with regard to landscape connectivity: while dispersal corridors are essential for species with under-compensatory density regulation, they may have detrimental effects for endangered species with over-compensation.

Animals↗

PubMed2002

The evolution of reproductive isolation in spatially structured populations.

Recent models of speciation have incorporated population structure and migration into the classic model of speciation in which reproductive isolation arises as a by-product of divergence. In this paper, we expanded these models to explore the joint effects of migration and population subdivision on speciation in a spatially explicit context. The results of our simulation support previous results concerning the influence of population subdivision on the accumulation of reproductive isolation. The simulation also shows that speciation in subdivided populations occurs most rapidly when subpopulations are not strictly allopatric. These results counter the widespread notion that speciation is most likely to occur in allopatric populations and suggest that there are useful insights to be gained by incorporating increasingly realistic types of population structure into models of speciation.

Biological Evolution↗

PubMed2005

Global production increased by spatial heterogeneity in a population dynamics model.

Spatial and temporal heterogeneity are often described as important factors having a strong impact on biodiversity. The effect of heterogeneity is in most cases analyzed by the response of biotic interactions such as competition of predation. It may also modify intrinsic population properties such as growth rate. Most of the studies are theoretic since it is often difficult to manipulate spatial heterogeneity in practice. Despite the large number of studies dealing with this topics, it is still difficult to understand how the heterogeneity affects populations dynamics. On the basis of a very simple model, this paper aims to explicitly provide a simple mechanism which can explain why spatial heterogeneity may be a favorable factor for production. We consider a two patch model and a logistic growth is assumed on each patch. A general condition on the migration rates and the local subpopulation growth rates is provided under which the total carrying capacity is higher than the sum of the local carrying capacities, which is not intuitive. As we illustrate, this result is robust under stochastic perturbations.

Models, Theoretical↗

PubMed2005

Pollen limitation or mate search need not induce an Allee effect.

When a process modelling the availability of gametes is included explicitly in population models a critical depensation or Allee effect usually results. Non-spatial models cannot describe clumping and so small populations must be assumed very diffuse. Consequently individuals in small populations experience low contact rates and so reproduction is limited. In Nature invasions into new territory are unlikely to be as diffuse as those described by non-spatial models. We develop pair approximations to a probabilistic cellular automata model with independent pollination and seed setting processes (equivalently mate search and reproduction processes). Each process can be either global (population-wide) or local (within a small neighbourhood) or a mixture of the two. When either process is global the resulting model recaptures the Allee effect found in non-spatial models. However, if both processes are at least partially local we obtain a model in which Allee effects can be avoided altogether if individuals are suitably strong pollinators and colonisers. The Allee effect disappears because small populations are dramatically more clumped when colonisation is local and less wasteful of pollen when pollination is local.

Algorithms↗

PubMed2003

The role of prey taxis in biological control: a spatial theoretical model.

We study a reaction-diffusion-advection model for the dynamics of populations under biological control. A control agent is assumed to be a predator species that has the ability to perceive the heterogeneity of pest distribution. The advection term represents the predator density movement according to a basic prey taxis assumption: acceleration of predators is proportional to the prey density gradient. The prey population reproduces logistically, and the local population interactions follow the Holling Type II trophic function. On the scale of the population, our spatially explicit approach subdivides the predation process into random movement represented by diffusion, directed movement described by prey taxis, local prey encounters, and consumption modeled by the trophic function. Thus, our model allows studying the effects of large-scale predator spatial activity on population dynamics. We show under which conditions spatial patterns are generated by prey taxis and how this affects the predator ability to maintain the pest population below some economic threshold. In particular, intermediate taxis activity can stabilize predator-pest populations at a very low level of pest density, ensuring successful biological control. However, very intensive prey taxis destroys the stability, leading to chaotic dynamics with pronounced outbreaks of pest density.

Animals↗

PubMed2006

Habitat shape, metapopulation processes and the dynamics of multispecies predator-prey interactions.

1. The effects of habitat shape, connectivity and the metapopulation processes of persistence and extinction are explored in a multispecies resource-consumer interaction. 2. The spatial dynamics of the indirect interaction between two prey species (Callosobruchus chinensis, Callosobruchus maculatus) and a predator (Anisopteromalus calandrae) are investigated and we show how the persistence time of this interaction is altered in different habitat configurations by the presence of an apparent competitor. 3. Habitat structure has differential effects on the dynamics of the resource-consumer interaction. Across all habitat types, the pairwise interaction between C. chinensis and A. calandrae is highly prone to extinction, while the interaction between C. maculatus and A. calandrae shows sustained long-term fluctuations. Contrary to expectations from theory, habitat shape has no significant effect on persistence time of the full, three-species resource-consumer assemblage. 4. A stochastic metapopulation model for a range of habitat configurations, incorporating different forms of regulatory processes, highlights that it is the spatially explicit population dynamics rather than the shape of the metapopulation that is the principal determinant of interaction persistence time.

Animals↗

PubMed2004

Inferring the dynamics of a spatial epidemic from time-series data.

Spatial interactions are key determinants in the dynamics of many epidemiological and ecological systems; therefore it is important to use spatio-temporal models to estimate essential parameters. However, spatially-explicit data sets are rarely available; moreover, fitting spatially-explicit models to such data can be technically demanding and computationally intensive. Thus non-spatial models are often used to estimate parameters from temporal data. We introduce a method for fitting models to temporal data in order to estimate parameters which characterise spatial epidemics. The method uses semi-spatial models and pair approximation to take explicit account of spatial clustering of disease without requiring spatial data. The approach is demonstrated for data from experiments with plant populations invaded by a common soilborne fungus, Rhizoctonia solani. Model inferences concerning the number of sources of disease and primary and secondary infections are tested against independent measures from spatio-temporal data. The applicability of the method to a wide range of host-pathogen systems is discussed.

Disease Outbreaks↗