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PubMed2001

[Study of pharyngo-cutaneous fistula after total laryngectomy].

OBJECTIVE: To explore the factors which lead to pharyngo-cutaneous fistula after total laryngectomy. METHOD: A retrospective study of 125 patients who underwent total laryngectomy during a 16-year period was carried out. RESULT: The rate of post-laryngectomy pharyngo-cutaneous fistula is 16.0% (20/125), it appears reduced tendency. With single-factor analysis, the factors effect on the rate of post-laryngectomy pharyngo-cutaneous fistula include clinical tumor stage, tumor types, pre-operative radiotherapy dose, intraoperative blood transfusion, operative duration. With all variable logistic model analysis, the factors effect on the rate of pharyngo-cutaneous fistula are clinical tumor stage and pre-operative radiotherapy dose, but pre-operative radiotherapy is very possible to be a risk factor (P = 0.0566). With logistic model stepwise regression analysis, the factors effect on the rate of pharyngo-cutaneous fistula are clinical tumor stage and operative duration. CONCLUSION: Pharyngo-cutaneous fistula appears easily in patients with T3, T4 tumor, and have pre-operative radiotherapy, especially have large dose preradiotherapy. For these high risk patients, the duration of operation should be as short as possible to reduce the rate of post-laryngectomy pharyngo-cutaneous fistula.

Adult↗

PubMed2005

Correlates of obesity among patients attending an urban family medical center.

Urban populations face unique health challenges. We used data from a cross-sectional comprehensive health risk assessment survey conducted at an urban family medicine center to explore demographic and clinical correlates of obesity among 923 adults ages 20-64 years. Based on univariate analyses, there were no significant differences for body mass index (BMI) categories or health status ratings by racial group. A logistic model revealed that obese respondents (BMI >30.0) were significantly less likely to be female, white and to report a body image of overweight. Overall, just 25% of persons with a BMI of >30 classified themselves as being overweight. A second logistic model revealed that respondents reporting a body image of overweight were significantly more likely to be age 50-64 years, female, white and to report their health as good or fair/poor, which may reflect differing cultural and social beliefs of how individuals perceive their weight. This misperception between calculated BMI and reported body image in this urban population may serve to moderate attempts to address weight control as a health issue.

Adult↗

PubMed2002

Influence of diabetes on persistent nonhealing ischemic foot ulcer in end-stage renal disease.

The aim of this study was to identify important atherosclerotic risk factors for characteristic nonhealing ischemic foot ulcers in patients with end-stage renal failure. We retrospectively studied 534 consecutive hemodialysis patients in five dialysis units of the Tokyo metropolitan area between 1980 and 1999. The influence of risk factors for ischemic foot ulcers in hemodialysis patients was determined using a multivariate logistic model. The characteristic features were also evaluated with further comparison of the prevalence of risk factors between hemodialyzed diabetic patients with ischemic foot ulcers and another 61 age- and gender-matched nonhemodialyzed diabetic patients with ischemic foot ulcers. In the logistic model, two factors emerged as important risk factors for ischemic foot ulcers: renal failure due to diabetes [odds ratio 21.580 (95% CI 4.838-96.251); p = 0.0001] and a history of cerebrovascular disease [odds ratio 2.782 (1.015-7.624); p = 0.0467]. On the basis of a comparison of age- and gender-matched control patients, associated diabetic triopathy, a history of cerebrovascular disease, and hypertension were more frequent in the hemodialysis patients. The development of ischemic foot ulcers in those with end-stage renal failure is strongly influenced by underlying advanced diabetic microangiopathy and such other factors as sequelae of cerebrovascular disease and patient debilitation.

Aged↗

PubMed1997

A population-based analysis of qualitative features of the neuropsychological test performance of individuals with dementia of the Alzheimer type: implications for individuals with questionable dementia.

Qualitative features of the neuropsychological test performance of individuals with dementia of the Alzheimer type (DAT) were examined in a population-based study. Qualitative error scores were derived from measures of verbal and figural memory, verbal fluency and confrontation naming for 38 patients with clinically diagnosed DAT, 236 normal elderly (NE) individuals, and 72 others who were questionably demented and at risk (AR) for DAT. Persons with DAT made a greater proportion of intrusion and perseverative errors, and more lexical and semantic naming errors, than the NE participants. These measures provided fair specificity but poor sensitivity for the diagnosis of DAT, and a logistic model based on these measures correctly classified 98% of the NE participants, but only 29% of the DAT participants. The AR participants demonstrated a pattern of errors that was highly similar to that of the DAT patients, and when their scores were subjected to the logistic model, 90% were classified as NE and 10% as DAT. These results indicate that specific error types that have been associated with DAT in self-referred or clinic-based samples also occur in the general population to a greater degree in individuals with DAT or questionable dementia than in NE individuals. Furthermore, these qualitative features may have some diagnostic usefulness in that their presence provides reasonable specificity for DAT or questionable dementia.

Aged↗

PubMed1996

Use of transthoracic Doppler echocardiography combined with clinical and electrocardiographic data to predict acute pulmonary embolism.

Transthoracic echocardiography and continuous wave Doppler were prospectively performed in 132 out-patients with suspicion of pulmonary embolism, and who had no previous history of severe cardiac or pulmonary disease. Bedside echocardiography determined diagnosis other than pulmonary embolism in 55 patients. Further study was completed in 70 patients; pulmonary embolism was found in 31 and excluded in 39. Significant differences were found as regards right ventricular diameter (27 +/- 8 vs 22 +/- 5 mm, P < 0.001), left ventricular diameter (41 +/- 9 vs 49 +/- 7 mm, P < 0.001), right over left ventricular diameter ratio (0.67 +/- 0.23 vs 0.43 +/- 0.15, P < 0.0001), tricuspid regurgitant flow peak velocity (2.9 +/- 0.4 vs 2.4 +/- 0.7 m.s-1, P < 0.0001), and abnormal septum motion (12 vs 4, P < 0.01). Multivariate analysis of echocardiographic data included a tricuspid regurgitant flow peak velocity greater than 2.5 m.s-1 and a right over left ventricular diameter ratio greater than 0.5 in a logistic model (sensitivity 93%, specificity 81%). The combination of echocardiographic and non-echocardiographic data included the two previous echocardiographic variables, together with signs of deep vein thrombosis, a deep S wave in lead D1, and a Q wave in lead D3 on the electrocardiogram in a logistic model (sensitivity 96%, specificity 83%). It can be concluded that emergency echocardiography, alone or combined with clinical examination and electrocardiogram, satisfactorily predicts acute pulmonary embolism.

Acute Disease↗

PubMed2001

Two-sex population dynamics in space: effects of gestation time on persistence.

Most single-species population models assume either that one sex dominates the growth dynamics (usually the female), or that the life cycles of the two sexes are identical; however, sexual differences in ontogenetic features can render this assumption invalid. Further, the interaction between sexes is necessarily nonlinear, and the dependence of dynamic behavior on sexual interactions can be complicated. Here we examine a two-sex population model, related to the well-known logistic model, with explicit sexual interactions. The model is bistable and, by the addition of diffusion, admits traveling wave solutions. Dominance of states via this spatial dynamic are examined. A simple condition for neutral dominance is obtained; sexual interactions inhibit the dominance of the nonzero population, making persistence more difficult.

Animals↗

PubMed1998

Hodgkin's disease: correlation of clinical characteristics with probabilities for negative lymphangiogram vs. negative laparotomy findings in patients with Stage I supradiaphragmatic presentations vs. those in patients with Stage II.

PURPOSE: At a time both when late complications and second malignancies have become a growing concern and when staging laparotomy has been largely abandoned and comparative studies for staging Hodgkin's disease by state of the art computed tomography (CT) vs. lymphangiography have revealed minimal differences in results for these procedures, our purpose for undertaking this study was twofold. Our initial reason was to determine and compare probabilities for negative abdominal findings for patients with Stage I presentations with those for patients with Stage II as determined by lymphangiography and subsequently by laparotomy for those patients who had negative lymphangiograms. Our second reason, being an extension of the first, was to create a resource that can be used in conjunction with other information for arriving at appropriate treatment decisions including giving either more or particularly less than standard institutional therapy and especially with respect to the abdomen. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Data on 714 patients with prelymphangiogram Stage I-II upper torso presentations of Hodgkin's disease were entered prospectively in our database between 1968 and 1987. Twenty-eight with lymphocyte predominant disease, who had both negative lymphangiogram and negative laparotomy findings and 17 with questionable diagnoses of lymphocyte-depleted or unclassified disease were excluded from subsequent analyses of 669 patients with nodular sclerosis (NS) and mixed cellularity (MC) diagnoses. RESULTS: Stage I: in final logistic models, negative lymphangiogram findings were associated strongly with a combination of no constitutional symptoms and nodular sclerosis histology, whereas negative laparotomy findings correlated strongly with a combination of no constitutional symptoms and female sex. Predicted probabilities depended on the ratios of favorable to unfavorable characteristics. Stage II: in final logistic models, negative lymphangiogram findings were associated strongly with a combination of no constitutional symptoms, nodular sclerosis histology, age <40 years, and <4 involved sites, whereas negative laparotomy findings correlated strongly with a combination of <4 involved sites and mediastinal disease. Predicted probabilities again depended on the ratios of favorable to unfavorable characteristics. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrated that probabilities for negative abdominal findings for patients with supradiaphragmatic presentations of NS and MC Hodgkin's disease depended on: 1) whether the disease presented as Stage I or as Stage II; 2) whether staging was limited to a lymphangiogram or whether it included a laparotomy; and 3) or whether the clinical features associated with the presenting stage and methods of staging were favorable or unfavorable.

Abdomen↗

PubMed2001

[Parenchymal changes after radiosurgery of cerebral arteriovenous malformations. Clinical and MRI data].

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Purposes of this study are to describe different parenchymal changes seen after radiosurgery of cerebral arteriovenous malformations and the clinical symptoms which can be associated, and risk factors correlated with them. PATIENTS: and method. From the whole population of 705 patients with a cerebral arteriovenous malformations treated by radiosurgery between 1984 and 1998, clinical from 615 patients and post radiosurgery MRI data from 367 patients were reviewed. Neurological deficit occurred in 5.37% of cases and was still persistant in 1.46% of cases. Delay of occurrence of deficits ranged from 6 to 83 months (mean: 27 months, median: 15 months). Parenchymal changes seen in MRI were classified in 4 grades: 1 without parenchymal changes, 2 hypersignal in sp T2, 3=2 with homogenous enhancement with gadolinium, 4 with hyposignal in spT1 and annular irregular enhancement. Several parameters (size, volume, angioarchitecture of the cerebral arteriovenous malformation, dosimetric parameters) were studied and correlations were searched by uni and multivariate analysis with occurrence and delay of occurrence of deficits or parenchymal changes. RESULTS: In multivariate analysis, only size was significantly correlated with occurrence of parenchymal changes (p=0.0016); only size of the malformation was significantly correlated with delay of occurrence of parenchymal changes (p=0.0082); only grade 4 was correlated with occurrence of neurological deficit (p<0.00001). However, when only "a priori" parameters (known before radiosurgery) are introducted in logistic model, size taille (p=0.02) and hypoplasy of a sinus (p=0.0049) are significantly correlated with occurrence of neurological deficit. Only parenchymal changes grade 4 was significantly correlated with delay of occurrence of a neurological deficit (p<0.00001). However, when only a priori parameters (known before radiosurgery) are introducted in logistic model, only arterial steal (p=0.054) was significantly correlated with delay of occurrence of a neurological deficit. CONCLUSION: Parenchymal changes are various in expression, signification and clinical symptoms associated with them. They must be known and recognized for better prevention and symptomatic treatment as well.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1990

Association of logistic and Poisson models of infection with some physical characteristics of a single component plant virus.

A logistic model was recently formulated to describe the relationship between concentration of a single component plant virus and infections produced by inoculation to a local lesion host. In this paper the logistic is combined with a Poisson model. The logistic makes accurate fitting possible for a variety of infection-dilution series; and the Poisson acts as a base line, indicating whether lesion numbers are compatible with the hypothesis that random infection of similar infection sites has occurred. A logarithmic form of the logistic equation gives a straight line with negative slope (logit slope) which is useful in characterizing dilution series to which the logistic is fitted. A modified Poisson equation can also be fitted to a range of dilution series; it provides an independent estimate of slope for curves not widely divergent from the standard Poisson. Models have also been developed to define the limits of concentration within which single virions are likely to be randomly dispersed in inoculum without immediate contact with other virions, and are therefore more likely to enter inoculated tissue independently and cause random infections. Models are formulated for aggregation of tobacco mosaic virus in monolayers, crystals, and lenticular aggregates. Published and unpublished data are fitted and analyzed using some of these models.

Models, Statistical↗

PubMedDate not supplied

The basis for clinicians' caries risk grouping in children.

Despite the growing emphasis on targeting care to high-risk groups, little is known about the factors used by clinicians to designate risk. This study investigates the degree to which factors measured in a typical dental health survey are used by clinicians in assigning children to dental disease risk groups. A random sample of 9690 children aged 5-15 years was selected from the South Australian School Dental Service. Dentists or dental therapists judged each child as low-, medium-, or high-risk for dental disease. Clinicians recorded caries experience (DMFS/dmfs), and children's parents completed a questionnaire on dental behaviors and socioeconomic status (SES). Two binary logistic models were fitted using the risk grouping as the outcome variable, one comparing low- with moderate-risk and the other comparing moderate- with high-risk. Sixty percent of children were judged as moderate-risk, 27% as low-risk, and only 13% as high-risk. In the logistic models, proximal DMFS/dmfs were stronger predictors of assignment to the higher-risk groups than were factors indicating past occlusal caries, while factors describing caries on buccal or lingual surfaces appeared unimportant. Untreated lesions on permanent and primary teeth were among the strongest predictors of assignment to the higher-risk groups. Other significant factors (P < 0.05) were: exposure to professionally applied fluoride and sealants, country of birth, frequency of toothbrushing, and exposure to fluoridated water. No SES factors reached significance. The models explained nearly one-half the variation in the risk predictions. Clinical markers of past caries experience explained the greatest variation in the judgments, showing that clinicians base their risk predictions largely on children's past disease. The three types of surfaces contribute unevenly to the judgments and unrestored caries was the largest contributor to the decision.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1991

Logistic-regression model for assessing portal hypertension by measuring hyaluronic acid (hyaluronan) and laminin in serum.

We earlier observed a positive correlation between portal venous pressure (PVP) and the concentration of laminin in serum. Here we investigated whether the diagnostic efficacy could be improved by considering additional analytes and application of multivariate statistical analysis. In 102 patients with fibrotic liver disease of various etiologies we measured PVP as the gradient of the wedged and free hepatic venous pressures and determined the concentrations of hyaluronic acid and laminin in serum. Regression coefficients established by logistic regression in this group were subsequently used to predict portal hypertension (PVP greater than mmHg) in an independent group of 45 patients. By comparison with the known PVP, we obtained a sensitivity of 0.83 (confidence interval: 0.63-0.93) and a specificity of 0.82 (0.61-0.93) for diagnosis of portal hypertension by means of the concentrations of hyaluronic acid and laminin in serum. Application of the model is suggested as a tool for pre-screening and monitoring patients to be subjected to assessment of portal hypertension.

Adult↗

PubMed1990

Evaluation of the associations between carotid artery atherosclerosis and coronary artery stenosis. A case-control study.

To evaluate the consistency, strength, and independence of the relation of carotid atherosclerosis to coronary atherosclerosis, we quantified coronary artery disease risk factors and extent of carotid atherosclerosis (B-mode score) in 343 coronary artery disease patients and 167 disease-free control patients. In univariable analyses, there was a strong association between coronary status and extent of carotid artery disease in men and women older than and younger than 50 years (p less than 0.001 for men and women greater than 50 years, p less than 0.001 for women less than or equal to 50 years, p = 0.045 for men less than or equal to 50). The relation remained strong after control for age in men and women older than 50 years and in women younger than 50 (p less than 0.001 for men and women greater than 50 years, p = 0.003 for women less than or equal to 50) but did not persist after control for age in men younger than 50. Logistic models that included coronary disease risk factors, with or without B-mode score, as independent variables and presence or absence of coronary disease as the outcome variable indicated that the extent of carotid atherosclerosis was a strong, statistically significant independent variable in models for men and women older than 50 years of age. Next, we examined the usefulness of B-mode score as an aid in screening for coronary artery disease in men and women older than 50 years. Classification rules, both including and excluding B-mode score, were developed based on logistic regression and, for comparison, recursive partitioning (decision trees). The performance of these rules and the bias of their performance statistics were estimated. The improved classification of the study sample when B-mode score was incorporated in the rule was statistically significant only for men (p = 0.015). However, the addition of B-mode score was found to 1) increase the median discrimination score for both sex groups based on the logistic model, and 2) yield better sensitivities and specificities for rules based on recursive partitioning. Thus B-mode score is strongly, consistently, and independently associated with coronary artery disease in patients older than 50 and is at least as useful as well-known risk factors for identifying patients with coronary artery disease.

Aging↗

PubMed1991

Transmission factors and socioeconomic status as determinants of diarrhoeal incidence in Lima, Peru.

As part of a longitudinal, community-based study of diarrhoeal morbidity in a peri-urban community in Lima, Peru, a household survey was administered to ascertain possible risk factors, based on transmission routes, for diarrhoeal incidence. Socioeconomic information was also obtained in the survey and a composite socioeconomic status (SES) indicator was created based on four variables: income (wealth), ownership of 4 functioning electrical household appliances, community participation, and house construction. Both transmission factors and the SES indicator were analysed for their effects on diarrhoeal incidence using both bivariate and multivariate methods. The SES indicator, method of water storage, if the child was seen eating faeces or soil were all significantly associated with diarrhoeal incidence. In a final logistic model, water storage, location of defecation for children, child eating soil or faeces, and age, demonstrated significant results. Children in households with water stored in containers without a faucet were twice as likely to have a high incidence of diarrhoea (greater than 7 episodes/child/year). The SES indicator was not significant in the logistic model, but high SES was associated with whether or not the child was reported as having been seen eating faeces or soil and with non-use of latrines by adults. Also low SES households were more likely to have better water storage methods. Therefore, it would seem that (SES) does not independently determine diarrhoeal incidence, but rather may be functioning through these transmission factors to affect diarrhoeal incidence.

Child, Preschool↗

PubMed2003

[Efficacy of influenza vaccine for young children in Mie Prefecture in the 1999/2000 prevalent season].

PURPOSE: The purpose of this survey was to investigate the efficacy and safety of influenza HA vaccine for children between 1 and 6 years of age in Mie Prefecture during the 1999/2000 prevalent season. METHODS: We surveyed clinical data for children aged between 1 to 6 who visited five clinics in Mie Prefecture. Dividing them into vaccinated and non-vaccinated groups, we surveyed their basic properties, disease histories and manifestation of symptoms. The survey was performed with the consent of parents who were informed of the purpose. We also surveyed the adverse effects within 48 hours after vaccination. The serum HI titers of the vaccinated children were sampled three times: before the first vaccination and after the first and second vaccinations. The data were analysed with the chi-squared test and a multiple logistic model. RESULTS: The frequency of febrile episodes above 38 degrees C was significantly lower in the vaccinated than the non-vaccinated group. While the relative risk for the entire survey period was 0.79, it declined to 0.62 during the peak period of the epidemic. Furthermore, the odds ratio was 0.42 by the multiple logistic model. Among the vaccinated group, the pattern in the increase of HI titer after vaccination varied depending on the species of vaccine antigen. In addition, the frequency of febrile episodes above 38 degrees C was significantly lower in the group which had an HI titer to A/Sydney antigen of 1:40 or more than in these with values below 1:40. CONCLUSION: The relative risk of febrile episodes above 38 degrees C during the influenza prevalent season was 0.62 or below, and vaccine efficacy was 38 percent or above. Considering the significant difference in the frequency of febrile episodes between the groups with HI titers above and below 1:40, it is necessary to study strategies for those with a low response.

Child↗

PubMed1984

Outcome and risk factors in severely traumatised patients.

This study presents outcome and risk factors in 228 critically ill adult trauma patients treated in the ICU. Most of the patients had multiple traumas, the most common single trauma among them being brain injury. 23% of all patients died in the ICU and 37% by the end of the first year after intensive care. The mortality rate had not increased by the end of the second year. 9% of the patients remained disabled. The one-year mortality rate was highest (58%) in brain injury patients. On admission, before any treatment was given, disturbances in seven vital functions were classified into three grades according to their severity. An increase in the sum of these severity grades correlated well with eventual mortality. Of many biochemical parameters analysed, only hyperosmolality and hypernatremia were associated with increased mortality. Two logistic models, one for the whole patient material and another for those having no or only minor brain injury, were fitted in order to find risk factors characteristic of non-survivors. The following risk factors were obtained: increasing age, brain injury, deteriorating level of consciousness during intensive care, increasing serum osmolality and creatinine. These logistic models can be used prospectively to estimate the probability of death for an individual patient.

Adult↗

PubMed1995

Complex segregation analysis of familial diseases with variable age of onset: comparison of different methods by a simulation study.

Standard methods of segregation analysis, such as originally developed in the unified model (UM) or the regressive logistic model (RLM) do not account for age of onset, and use instead age at examination. To take into account age of onset, models should be formulated using survival analysis concepts, as it was recently proposed with a model based on a logistic hazard function (LHM). A simulation study was conducted to compare the performances of the three methods (UM, RLM, and LHM) in analyzing generated familial data with variable age of onset. When the data were simulated under a polygenic hypothesis, all analysis models were robust with respect to the false conclusion of a major gene, if the tests of transmission probabilities were performed properly. When the data were generated under a major gene hypothesis, two main results were observed: 1) the use of the LHM markedly increased the power to detect a major gene, in particular when a genotype by age interaction was introduced in the model; and 2) in the situation of disease-specific mortality, the use of either UM (whether specific mortality was accounted for or not) or RLM led to both spurious conclusions and bias in parameter estimates. These latter results obtained with the UM and the RLM can be explained by the violation of one constraint of both models observed in a situation of disease-specific mortality, i.e., given all covariates, the probability of being affected and that of not being affected should sum to 1. The use of methods based on survival analysis concepts is recommended in the study of familial diseases with variable age of onset, especially in the case of a correlation between age of onset and age at examination which is induced by disease-specific mortality.

Adult↗

PubMed2004

A simple model for predicting nodal metastasis in patients with clinical stage I nonseminomatous germ cell testicular tumors undergoing retroperitoneal lymph node dissection only.

PURPOSE: In patients with clinical stage I nonseminomatous germ cell testicular tumor the identification of risk categories for nodal metastases and/or distant metastases could permit selective management. We built 2 models for distinguishing these risk categories. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data on 322 consecutive patients with clinical stage I nonseminomatous germ cell testicular tumor patients treated with retroperitoneal lymphadenectomy (RPLND) alone between 1985 and 1995 were analyzed. The interval between orchiectomy and RPLND, vascular invasion (VI), pT stage, percent embryonal carcinoma (ECa) and teratoma in the primary tumor were considered clinically relevant for their association with nodal or distant metastases. Two logistic models were constructed. Model 1 was meant to discriminate 2 patient categories, namely those with and without nodal metastases at RPLND. Model 2 was meant to discriminate 3 patient categories, namely those without any metastases, with nodal metastases only and with distant metastases independent of retroperitoneal metastases. The models were based on these above variables, which were inserted as categorical and then processed through a backward selection procedure. RESULTS: At RPLND nodal metastases were found in 60 patients (18.6%). During followup distant metastases were observed in 43 patients (13.4%) and retroperitoneal recurrences were noted in 6 (1.9%). Of all recurrences 93.8% were within 2 years since RPLND. RPLND had a high curative rate since 73% of all pN+ cases were cured by surgery alone. The final logistic model 1, including percent ECa and VI, was reassessed in 202 patients with available data. Absent VI and ECa 90% or greater identified a category of 110 patients at low risk for nodal metastasis (14%), while VI and/or ECa greater than 90% identified a category of 92 at higher risk (35%). The identified categories were also related to distant metastases, which occurred in 9.3% of low risk and in 23.1% of high risk cases. Model 2 was not clinically suitable because it did not allow us to distinguish patients at risk for nodal metastases only from those at risk for distant metastases. CONCLUSIONS: Simplicity is the main advantage of model 1 since only 2 well-known prognostic parameters are involved. Although the model must be validated in an independent case series, the identification of a low risk category with few expected nodal metastases could permit us to replace traditional RPLND with a less invasive staging procedure.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2001

Clinical risk factors as predictors of postmenopausal osteoporosis in general practice.

BACKGROUND: Case-finding strategies to identify women with high risk for osteoporotic fractures have recently been proposed, but little information about such an approach in general practice is known. AIM: To study the validity of the proposed case-finding strategy for osteoporosis. DESIGN OF STUDY: Survey using case-finding strategy. SETTING: Seven hundred and twelve women aged between 55 and 84 years, randomly selected from a general practice in The Netherlands. METHOD: Of the 712 randomly selected women, 449 women participated. Information was obtained from a questionnaire, direct questioning, and computerised patients files. Bone mineral density of the femoral neck was measured by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry and vertebral morphometry was performed on lateral X-rays of the spine. Osteoporosis was defined by a bone mineral density T-score of less than 2.5 and/or the presence of severe vertebral deformities. Sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values were calculated for the whole set of risk factors; those significantly associated with osteoporosis and in logistic models. RESULTS: Clinical risk factors were present in 55% of the women and identified 68% of the women with osteoporosis. Three risk factors--a low body mass index, fragility fractures, and severe kyphosis and/or loss of height--were associated significantly with osteoporosis; they were present in 33% of the women and identified 60% of those with osteoporosis. A logistic model based on age and fragility fractures selected 32% of the women and identified 76%. CONCLUSION: No single risk factor could assist in identifying women with osteoporosis. A simplified case-finding strategy using only three risk factors, that is suitable for primary care, reduces the number of women to be evaluated by two-thirds; however, this is at the cost of missing the diagnosis in 40% of the women with osteoporosis. Addition of spine radiographs to the case-finding approach helped to obtain a better risk profile of the women and had also practical consequences for the management of some. We propose that radiographs should be included in any case-finding strategy.

Aged↗