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Reducing dynamic foot pressures in high-risk diabetic subjects with foot ulcerations. A comparison of treatments.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the effectiveness of total contact casts, commercially available therapeutic shoes, and removable walking casts to reduce mean peak plantar foot pressures at the site of neuropathic ulcerations in diabetic subjects. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We compared the reduction in peak plantar pressures at ulcer sites under the great toe (n = 5), first metatarsal (n = 10), and second through fifth metatarsals (n = 10) using six treatments: total contact casts (TCCs), DH Pressure Relief Walkers (DH), Aircast Pneumatic Walkers, Three D Dura-Steppers (3D), CAM Walkers, and P.W. Minor Xtra Depth shoes. A rubber sole canvas oxford was used to establish baseline pressure values. The canvas oxford could be viewed as a worse-case scenario for this patient population. With the EMED Pedar in-shoe pressure measurement system, data for 40 steps were collected for each treatment. We used Tukey's Studentized Range Test for simultaneous multiple comparisons to compare treatments. RESULTS: DH Pressure Relief Walkers reduced plantar pressures significantly better than other commercially available treatments for ulcers under the first metatarsal, second through fifth metatarsals, and great toe (P < 0.05). There was not a significant difference in mean peak plantar pressures between TCCs and DHs at any of the forefoot ulcer sites. CONCLUSIONS: DH Pressure Relief Walkers were as effective as total contact casts to reduce foot pressures at ulcer sites and may be an effective practical addition in the treatment of foot ulcers.

Casts, Surgical↗

"Going solid": a model of system dynamics and consequences for patient safety.

Rather than being a static property of hospitals and other healthcare facilities, safety is dynamic and often on short time scales. In the past most healthcare delivery systems were loosely coupled-that is, activities and conditions in one part of the system had only limited effect on those elsewhere. Loose coupling allowed the system to buffer many conditions such as short term surges in demand. Modern management techniques and information systems have allowed facilities to reduce inefficiencies in operation. One side effect is the loss of buffers that previously accommodated demand surges. As a result, situations occur in which activities in one area of the hospital become critically dependent on seemingly insignificant events in seemingly distant areas. This tight coupling condition is called "going solid". Rasmussen's dynamic model of risk and safety can be used to formulate a model of patient safety dynamics that includes "going solid" and its consequences. Because the model addresses the dynamic aspects of safety, it is particularly suited to understanding current conditions in modern healthcare delivery and the way these conditions may lead to accidents.

Efficiency, Organizational↗

Risk factors for pancreatic anastomotic leakage: the significance of preoperative dynamic magnetic resonance imaging of the pancreas as a predictor of leakage.

BACKGROUND: The histologic degree of pancreatic fibrosis can be assessed preoperatively by using the time-signal intensity curve (TIC) of the pancreas obtained from dynamic magnetic resonance imaging. STUDY DESIGN: To identify risk factors for postoperative pancreatic anastomotic leakage and to assess the impact of pancreatic TIC on this complication, 89 patients who underwent a pancreatic head resection with an end-to-side pancreaticojejunostomy between December 1998 and August 2005 were retrospectively reviewed. The pancreatic TIC profiles were classified into 3 types: type I, indicating a normal pancreas without fibrosis; and types II and III indicating fibrotic pancreas. RESULTS: Pancreaticojejunal anastomotic leakage occurred in 14 patients (16%). In a univariate analysis, pancreatic texture (hard, 3% versus intermediate, 20% versus soft, 23%; p = 0.046), pancreatic duct size (> 3 mm, 8% versus 6.0%) than in those with a normal hemoglobin A1c level. CONCLUSIONS: Pancreatic TIC from dynamic MRI provides reliable information for predicting risk of pancreatic anastomotic leakage after pancreatic head resection. Especially in patients with type I pancreatic TIC, the presence of uncontrolled diabetes is considered a primary risk factor for postoperative pancreatic leakage.

Adult↗

Frequency of sudden cardiac death and profiles of risk.

The epidemiology of ventricular tachycardia/fibrillation (VT/VF) and sudden cardiac death (SCD) must be explored from multiple aspects, each of which contributes insights into the problem and no one of which exerts exclusive dominance for preventive or therapeutic strategies. These include: (1) population dynamics, using conventional epidemiologic approaches; (2) risk as a function of time from an index event; (3) conditioning risk factors, based on the presence of underlying disease states; (4) transient risk factors that are dynamic and trigger a potentially fatal event at a specific point in time; and (5) "response risk," which refers to individual susceptibility (possibly determined genetically) to the adverse effects of longitudinal and/or dynamic risk factors. Major inroads into profiling individual or population risk of SCD will require better understanding of each of these epidemiologic-clinical-physiologic interactions. The disciplines range from epidemiology, through clinical medicine, to membrane channel physiology, genetic determinants, and molecular biology.

Adult↗

Aminoterminal propeptide of type III procollagen in cord blood and amniotic fluid of high-risk pregnancies: a biochemical approach to the dynamic assessment of deviant fetal growth.

N-terminal propeptide of type III procollagen (PIIINP) concentration was measured in cord serum, amniotic fluid, and maternal serum from high-risk pregnancies. The fetal PIIINP variability was shown to be independent of the maternal serum PIIINP values. Although a highly significant negative correlation was found between the fetal propeptide level and gestational age in both appropriate-for-gestational-age neonates (n = 504) and small-for-gestational-age infants (n = 98), the PIIINP concentration in cord serum or amniotic fluid of small-for-gestational-age infants was significantly lower compared with that of appropriate-for-gestational-age infants matched for postconceptional age. PIIINP assay may thus serve as a dynamic biochemical indicator of deviant fetal growth. The PIIINP results were also related to the severity or duration of intrauterine growth retardation, as indicated by significantly lower propeptide cord serum values in nonmalformed small-for-gestational-age infants with small head circumference, known as an index for the chronicity of fetal nutritional deprivation. Preeclampsia, maternal diabetes or smoking, and congenital anomalies appeared not to be associated with any alteration of fetal propeptide concentration, provided they did not cause fetal growth deceleration. The finding of extremely high cord serum PIIINP values in six newborn infants with the Potter malformation sequence led to the speculation that large amounts of propeptides or their fragments usually are excreted by the fetal kidneys into the amniotic fluid. We suggest that determination of the PIIINP level in amniotic fluid or cord serum, obtained by amniocentesis and percutaneous umbilical sampling, may be a helpful adjunctive biochemical parameter in future research protocols assessing fetuses at risk for intrauterine growth retardation.

Amniotic Fluid↗

Some regulatory definitions of risk: interaction of scientific and legal principles.

This paper discusses definitions of risk evolved to accommodate legal principles and scientific development in a time of rapid advances in science. The legal principles that underlie the interrelated definitions of "safe," "significant risk," and "acceptable risk" are examined in light of the major court decisions on benzene and vinyl chloride. The separate origins and development of concepts of de minimis risk and "negligible risk" are examined. The legal definitions are consistent with a judgmental weight-of-the-evidence evaluation of the statutory criteria, the available scientific information, and the risks acceptable in the world in which we live. The legal principles are dynamic, encourage scientific risk assessment based on case-by-case evaluation of the magnitude and character of human risks, and encourage incorporation of new scientific developments in the evaluation to improve the science base for regulatory decisions.

Animals↗

Dynamic cervical change: is real-time sonographic cervical shortening predictive of preterm delivery in patients with symptoms of preterm labor?

OBJECTIVES: To determine prospectively if dynamic cervical change (spontaneous real-time cervical shortening) is predictive of preterm delivery at < 37 weeks' gestation in patients with symptoms of preterm labor. METHODS: This was a prospective study of patients at 23-34 weeks' gestation who were symptomatic for preterm labor. Patients underwent a 10-min real-time sonographic cervical length assessment with measurements taken at 1-min intervals. The presence or absence of dynamic cervical change, defined as real-time changes in cervical length observable to the naked eye of the sonologist during the examination, was recorded. Gestational age at delivery was obtained from medical records. Preterm delivery was defined as delivery at < 37 weeks' gestation. Dynamic cervical change and initial and minimum cervical lengths were assessed for prediction of preterm delivery. RESULTS: Seventy-six patients were enrolled, and 66 were available for outcome analysis. Thirty-one patients (47%) exhibited dynamic cervical change. Patients with dynamic change had shorter initial cervical lengths (27 mm vs. 36 mm, P = 0.001), shorter minimum cervical lengths (20 vs. 33 mm, P < 0.001) and larger changes in cervical length during the examination period (10 vs. 4 mm, P < 0.001). In the subgroup of patients with an initial cervical length > 30 mm, those with dynamic change delivered earlier than did those without dynamic change (36.8 vs. 38.6 weeks, P = 0.02), and a higher percentage delivered preterm (27% vs. 11%, odds ratio (OR), 3.0 (0.5-17.0)). Multivariate analysis showed that minimum cervical length was a better predictor of preterm delivery than was initial cervical length. CONCLUSIONS: Dynamic cervical change occurs frequently in association with shortened cervical length. In patients with longer initial cervical lengths, dynamic change may increase the risk for preterm delivery. When dynamic change is noted in a patient with preterm labor symptoms, use of the minimum cervical length observed may be better compared with initial cervical length for determining preterm delivery risk.

Adult↗

Fuzzy modeling of interactions among environmental stressors in the ecosystem of Lake Koronia, Greece.

The development of a model for assessing the impact and interactions of stressors in the ecosystem of Lake Koronia, based on fuzzy inference, is presented in this paper. The proposed fuzzy inference model assesses the synergistic interactions among several significant stressors on fish production. These stressors include industrial pollution, pesticide and nutrient usage due to agricultural activities, and water level decrease due to irrigation works. Apart from the experts' knowledge, expressed in a set of fuzzy rules, a number of parameters such as pH, conductivity, biochemical and chemical oxygen demand, and nitrate concentration were used as stressor indicators. The proposed model is capable of simulating the effect of a large variety of environmental conditions, and it can be used as a dynamic tool for ecosystem risk assessment since it produces both qualitative and quantitative results, allowing for comparisons of predictions with on-going observational research and ecosystem monitoring. Its operation was successfully verified for a number of different conditions, ranging from low stressor impact to high stressor impact (where, in fact, the fish production was diminished). Moreover, the proposed fuzzy inference model can be used as a tool for the investigation of the behavior of the aquatic ecosystem under a large number of hypothetical environmental risk scenarios.

Animals↗

Antecedent trauma and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in young adult men.

Antecedent trauma has been implicated as a risk factor for many neurologic disorders, including amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Aging is a dynamic, exponentially increasing risk factor for many disorders, also including ALS. Consequently, the relative significance of other risk factors diminishes correspondingly with increasing age. Gompertzian risk analysis suggests that only in a young susceptible individual could the age-dependent risk be low enough to relate the development of ALS to a non-age-dependent risk factor, such as preceding trauma. This point is illustrated by the case histories of three young adult men who developed ALS within 2 years following trauma.

Adult↗

Risk of mortality following widowhood: age and sex differences by mode of death.

This study examines how spouses' deaths from sudden or lengthy illnesses differentially affect the mortality risks of surviving widows and widowers by age. Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we find the mortality risk differs by gender, age, and type of widowhood. For nonelderly (< 65) widowers, there is an elevated risk when their wives died suddenly. For older (> or = 65) widows, the mortality risk is lower than that of comparably aged married women when their husbands died after a long-term illness. These gender, age, and mode-of-death differences are consistent with role theory and theories of social support.

Adult↗

Short and medium term projections of the AIDS/HIV epidemic by a dynamic model with an application to the risk group of homo/bisexual men in Amsterdam.

Several methods exist for short term projection of the numbers of AIDS cases. Some use extrapolation of empirical curves fitted to data up to a given time, whereas others such as the popular method of 'back projection' or actuarial methods also use information about the process. In this paper we describe a dynamic model based on a distributed modelling technique allowing for variability both in infectiousness and in age distribution of the population at risk. Some model parameters are taken from the literature, others are estimated from AIDS incidence data from the homo/bisexual population in Amsterdam. The model described here simulates prevalence and incidence of HIV infection. We present prediction intervals for two years from January 1990 onwards. We discuss three scenarios based on the estimated model, two of which consider early treatment with anti-viral drugs. Given the model and the state of the epidemic in Amsterdam, early treatment intervention must be combined with very drastic measures for reducing infectivity in order to have any serious impact on the course of the epidemic.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗

The effect of foot structure and range of motion on musculoskeletal overuse injuries.

The purpose of this prospective study was to determine whether an association exists between foot structure and the development of musculoskeletal overuse injuries. The study group was a well-defined cohort of 449 trainees at the Naval Special Warfare Training Center in Coronado, California. Before beginning training, measurements were made of ankle motion, subtalar motion, and the static (standing) and dynamic (walking) characteristics of the foot arch. The subjects were tracked prospectively for injuries throughout training. We identified risk factors that predispose people to lower extremity overuse injuries. These risk factors include dynamic pes planus, pes cavus, restricted ankle dorsiflexion, and increased hindfoot inversion, all of which are subject to intervention and possible correction.

Achilles Tendon↗

Exploiting rate-related hysteresis in repolarization alternans to improve risk stratification for ventricular tachycardia.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to study the effect of heart rate acceleration and deceleration on the ability of repolarization alternans (RPA) to stratify ventricular tachycardia (VT) risk. BACKGROUND: Heart rate fluctuations alter arrhythmic propensity, yet it is unclear whether fluctuations, as well as absolute rate, dynamically increase VT risk. We hypothesized that repolarization heterogeneity reflected by RPA would exhibit hysteresis during rising and falling heart rate, which may reflect arrhythmic propensity. METHODS: The RPA magnitude (absolute voltage of alternation [V(alt)] and T-wave alternans ratio [TWAR]) and temporal distribution were determined from the electrocardiogram (ECG) in 60 patients during paced heart rate acceleration from 100 to 150 beats/min, then deceleration to 100 beats/min at electrophysiologic study (EPS). The V(alt) and TWAR thresholds were varied prospectively to generate receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) for the prediction of inducible VT at EPS. RESULTS: Thirty-six patients were induced into VT and 24 were not. Hysteresis of RPA was seen. The V(alt) reached steady-state within 60 beats of each rate transition and was higher in deceleration than in acceleration at matched heart rates. In induced patients, V(alt) rose then fell with heart rate. In noninduced patients, V(alt) was insensitive to acceleration, but rose on initial deceleration. The RPA distributed later within repolarization in induced patients but, on deceleration, moved earlier in both groups. By ROC analysis, V(alt) = 2.6 microV in late repolarization at 120 beats/min provided optimal sensitivity and specificity for VT in acceleration (87.5% and 88.7%, respectively) versus deceleration (80% and 62.5%, respectively; p = 0.004, chi-square test). CONCLUSIONS: 1) Physiologic fluctuations in heart rate may affect the clinical utility of RPA for VT risk stratification; and 2) repolarization dispersion measured by RPA is more exaggerated during deceleration than acceleration at matched heart rates (rate hysteresis).

Adult↗

Rationale and Clinical Techniques for Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injury Prevention Among Female Athletes.

OBJECTIVE: To present the rationale and detailed techniques for the application of exercises targeted to prevent anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury in high-risk female athletes. BACKGROUND: Female athletes have a 4- to 6-fold increased risk for ACL injury compared with their male counterparts playing at similar levels in the same sports. The increased ACL injury risk coupled with greater sports participation by young women over the last 30 years (9-fold increase in high school and 5-fold increase in collegiate sports) has generated public awareness and fueled several sex-related mechanistic and interventional investigations. These investigations provide the groundwork for the development of neuromuscular training aimed at targeting identified neuromuscular imbalances to decrease ACL injury risk. DESCRIPTION: After the onset of puberty, female athletes may not have a neuromuscular spurt to match their similar, rapid increase in growth and development. The lack of a natural neuromuscular adaptation may facilitate the development of neuromuscular imbalances that increase the risk for ACL injury. Dynamic neuromuscular analysis training provides the methodologic approach for identifying high-risk individuals and the basis of using interventions targeted to their specific needs. CLINICAL ADVANTAGES: Dynamic neuromuscular training applied to the high-risk population may decrease ACL injury risk and help more female athletes enjoy the benefits of sports participation without the long-term disabilities associated with injury.

Journal Article↗

Psychopathology as risk for adolescent substance use disorders: a developmental psychopathology perspective.

Examines several issues on psychiatric diagnoses as risk factors for adolescent drug use and substance use disorders. The articles in this special section are discussed in terms of dynamic models of risk and protective factors, stages of research needed for establishing causal mechanisms in the etiology of drug use disorders, conceptualizing drug use and abuse in the context of the developmental organization of the individual, equifinality and multifinality in developmental pathways to drug use and abuse, and issues in conceptualizing drug use problems as mental disorders. Future directions for research on the etiology of problem drug use, guided by principles of developmental psychopathology and prevention science, are provided.

Adolescent↗

Continuous assessment of the risk of falling using telecare.

The prevention of falls in the elderly could be based on risk assessment and the prediction of when an individual is likely to sustain an injury. A telecare system should allow the dynamic assessment of risk to be produced by a control centre computer, based on data transmitted from local sensors in the elderly person's home. A fall risk index could be calculated from mobility, activities of daily living and medication. However, substantial data-sets will be required before such fall risk indices attain statistical significance. As they are developed, fall prediction algorithms could be constantly reviewed and modified in order to reach the point where an acceptable level of accuracy is reached.

Accident Prevention↗

[Risk of infection transmission by blood components].

OBJECTIVE: Assessment of the present risk of blood-borne infection associated with homologous blood transfusion in Central Europe with particular emphasis on HIV and HCV infections. DATA SOURCES: The relevant literature in the English and German language and the authors' data. STUDY SELECTION: No special study has been carried out for the present paper. RESULTS: The recognition of the risk for transmitting HIV by transfusion has led to a bundle of measures which have improved the safety of blood supply in Germany. A stricter donor selection as well as screening for HIV 1 and HIV 2 have reduced the risk to transmit HIV to the order of 1 per 1 million units transfused. The transmission of hepatitis B is estimated to be in the order of 1:50,000. The anti-HCV testing, introduced in 1990, has markedly reduced the transmission of HCV to less than 1:5,000 per unit as judged from our own data. A further reduction is expected by an improved HCV screening in the near future. Fatal disease from bacterial contamination is rare, with an estimated risk of one in a million units. Syphilis transmitted by transfusion is virtually not occurring anymore. However, increased efforts should continue to enhance the safety of blood, bearing in mind that a zero risk is not achievable for effective therapies. The estimation of risks is a dynamic, time-dependent value which has to be estimated for a geographically defined population for a given time period. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of transfusion-associated infection has been markedly reduced in recent years. Albeit there is a small but definitive risk, which is often overestimated. The risks have to be defined to estimate the risk/benefit ratio of the homologous as well as the autologous transfusion for the individual patient.

Blood Banks↗

The integration of data on physico-chemical properties, in vitro-derived toxicity data and physiologically based kinetic and dynamic as modelling a tool in hazard and risk assessment. A commentary.

Toxicity of a compound for an organism is dependent on the route of exposure, the amount (or concentration), the way in which the compound is taken up, distributes and is eliminated from the organism (ADME, kinetics) and the intrinsic properties (reactivity; mode of action, dynamics) of the compound towards the organism. These three elements: exposure, kinetics and dynamics form the basis of hazard and risk evaluations. Developments in our knowledge of the way in which physico-chemical properties of chemicals (on the one side) and physiological processes in the organism (on the other side) determine a compound's toxicity have greatly increased our understanding of toxicological processes and our ability to interpret experimental results. This has now resulted in the development of model systems in which the above-mentioned processes can be described mathematically. Biokinetic modelling is currently of great interest, but the further development of toxicodynamic modelling is equally important. The combination of both allows the estimation of a compound's critical amount/concentration on the critical site of action, which ideally would be the basis for hazard and risk assessments. In vitro systems have been extremely useful in studying the molecular basis of a chemical's biological activity, including its mechanism(s) of toxic action. Other achievements include the prediction of biological reactivity on the basis of a compound's physico-chemical properties and the construction of quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs). However, for the incorporation of in vitro-derived data as well as the results of QSARs, kinetic modelling is indispensable. Thus, biokinetic and toxicodynamic modelling are important (if not crucial) tools in toxicological research and there are increasing opportunities to incorporate the results of this work in hazard and risk assessments. Their implementation will allow a much more scientifically-based and a better structured risk assessment, which will be to a much lesser extent relying on animal experimentation.

Animal Testing Alternatives↗