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[Disease outbreak monitoring system based on ambulance transport data].

INTRODUCTION: Disease outbreak monitoring is relevant not only for naturally occurring diseases but also for detecting a biological terror event. Surveillance systems are already operational in Denmark, but none of these has the high update frequencies necessary for early warning, and the majority monitor specific infectious diseases. MATERIALS AND METHODS: An early-warning system for detection of disease outbreaks in Denmark based on ambulance transport frequency was developed and tested employing a biological outbreak scenario. RESULTS: The system, termed "Bioalarm", demonstrated an ability to adapt to minor statistical variations due to, e.g., mild influenza epidemics and at the same time to elicit an early warning in the event of a outbreak consistent with a bioterrorist attack. CONCLUSION: Bioalarm not only is relevant for early warning of a disease outbreak as a result of a biological attack but also facilitates early detection of naturally occurring outbreaks.

Ambulances↗

Using blood glucose data as an indicator for epidemic disease outbreaks.

In the future, transfer of vital sensor data from patients to the public health care system is likely to become commonplace. Systems for automatic transfer of sensor data are now at the prototype stage. As electronic health record (EHR) systems adapt such functionality, widespread use may become an actuality in the foreseeable future.To prevent spreading of diseases, an early detection of infection is important. At the time an outbreak is diagnosed, many people may already be infected due to the incubation period. This study suggests an approach for detecting an epidemic outbreak at an early stage by monitoring blood glucose data collected from people with diabetes. Continuous analysis of blood glucose data may have the potential to prevent large outbreaks of infectious diseases, such as different strains of Influenza, Cholera, Plague, Ebola, Anthrax and SARS.When a person gets infected, the blood glucose value increases. If the blood glucose data from a large number of patients with diabetes are collected in a central database, it may be possible to detect an epidemic disease outbreak at an early stage. Advanced data analysis on the data may detect predominant numbers of incidences, indicating a possible outbreak. This gives the health authorities the possibilities to take actions to limit the outbreak and its consequences for all the inhabitants in an affected area.At the Norwegian Centre for Telemedicine, a mobile system for automatic transfer of blood glucose values has been constructed. By using wireless communication standards such as Bluetooth and GSM, the system transfers blood glucose data to an electronic health record system. Combined with a system accessing and querying data from EHR systems for patient surveillance we are extending our work into an Epidemic Disease Detection using blood Glucose (EDDG) system.

Blood Glucose↗

INFERNO: a system for early outbreak detection and signature forecasting.

OBJECTIVE: Public health surveillance systems that monitor daily disease incidence provide valuable information about threats to public health and enable public health authorities to detect enteric outbreaks rapidly. This report describes the INtegrated Forecasts and EaRly eNteric Outbreak (INFERNO) detection system of algorithms for outbreak detection and forecasting. METHODS: INFERNO incorporates existing knowledge of infectious disease epidemiology into adaptive forecasts and uses the concept of an outbreak signature as a composite of disease epidemic curves. RESULTS: Four main components comprise the system: 1) training, 2) warning and flagging, 3) signature forecasting, and 4) evaluation. The unifying goal of the system is to gain insight into the nature of temporal variations in the incidence of infection. Daily collected records are smoothed initially by using a loess-type smoother. Upon receipt of new data, the smoothing is updated; estimates are made of the first two derivatives of the smoothed curve, which are used for near-term forecasting. Recent data and near-term forecasts are used to compute a five level, color-coded warning index to quantify the level of concern. Warning algorithms are designed to balance false detection of an epidemic (Type I errors) with failure to correctly detect an epidemic (Type II errors). If the warning index signals a sufficiently high probability of an epidemic, the fitting of a gamma-based signature curve to the actual data produces a forecast of the possible size of the outbreak. CONCLUSION: Although the system is under development, its potential has been demonstrated through successful use of emergency department records associated with a substantial waterborne outbreak of cryptosporidiosis that occurred in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, in 1993. Prospects for further development, including adjustment for seasonality and reporting delays, are also outlined.

Algorithms↗

[Molecular detection and sequence analysis of hepatitis A virus (HAV) in two outbreaks in 2004 in North East Hungary].

INTRODUCTION: Hepatitis A virus (HAV) is the most important cause of acute infectious hepatitis worldwide. In Hungary, the reported number of HAV infections decreasing in the last decades, however, in every year approximately 500-800 new cases occur. In Hungary, particularly in North East region not only sporadic cases but also outbreaks of HAV are happen from time to time. Serology is routinely used laboratory method for diagnosis of HAV infections, although, there was no direct molecular detection and sequence analysis for the circulating HAV strains in Hungary. AIMS: Author's aims were to detection and genetic characterization of hepatitis A virus in outbreaks of hepatitis by molecular methods for reason of molecular epidemiology in Hungary. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Sera samples from symptomatic patients were tested from two acute hepatitis outbreaks in two settlements (Hajdúböszörmény and Kázsmárk) in North East Hungary in 2004 by enzim-immunoassay (EIA) and reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). RESULTS: Sera in 58 (100%) and 4 (28.6%) symptomatic patients were positive in outbreaks of Hajdúböszörmény and Kázsmárk by HAV IgM EIA, however, 4 (57.1%) and 2 (66.6%) HAV IgM positive samples were positive by RT-PCR. By sequence analysis, outbreaks caused by the same hepatitis A virus which belongs to genotype I, subtype IA. These viruses had 98.4% nucleotide identity to IT-SCH-00 virus detected in year 2000 in Italy the closest match in GenBank. CONCLUSIONS: Methods of molecular biology give new opportunity for surveillance of infectious diseases in public health. Firstly characterized hepatitis A viruses in Hungary show that the subtype IA have an important epidemiological role in outbreaks. It is also suggested that genotype IA HAV play a part in sporadic HAV cases in endemic region in Hungary, too.

Adolescent↗

Quick control of bubonic plague outbreak in Uttar Kashi, India.

A localized outbreak of bubonic plague occurred in village Dangud (population 332), district Uttar Kashi, Uttaranchal, India in the second week of October 2004. 8 cases were considered outbreak associated based on their clinical and epidemiological characteristics; 3 (27.3%) of them died within 48 hours of developing illness. All the 3 fatal cases and five surviving cases had enlargement of inguinal lymph nodes. None of them had pneumonia. The age of the cases ranged from 23-70 years and both sexes were affected. No such illness was reported from adjoining villages. The outbreak was fully contained within two weeks of its onset by supervised comprehensive chemoprophylaxis using tetracycline. A total of approximately 1250 persons were given chemoprophylaxis in three villages. There was no clear history of rat fall in the village. No flea was found on rodents or animals. 16 animal serum samples were found to be negative for antibodies against F-1 antigen of Y. pestis. However, Y. pestis was isolated from two rodents (Rattus rattus and Mus musculus) trapped in the village. One case and three animal sera showed borderline sero-positivity against rickettsial infection. The diagnosis of plague was confirmed by detection of four fold rise of antibody titre against F-1 antigen of Yersinia pestis in paired sera of three cases (one of the WHO approved criteria of diagnosis of confirmed plague). This outbreak and the occurrence of earlier outbreaks of plague in Surat (Gujarat) and Beed (Maharashtra) in 1994 and in district Shimla (Himachal Pradesh) in 2002 confirm that plague infection continue to exist in sylvatic foci in many parts of India which is transmitted to humans occasionally. Thus, there is a strong need for the States to monitor the plague activity in known sylvatic foci regularly and have a system of surveillance to facilitate prompt diagnosis and treatment of cases to control the disease. This investigation highlights that with high index of suspicion the disease can be diagnosed early and mounting of supervised comprehensive response can prevent the disease to proceed to pneumonic stage where man to man transmission gets established and outbreak assumes larger dimensions.

Adult↗

Cryptosporidium outbreak linked to interactive water feature, UK: importance of guidelines.

A need for national guidelines relating to interactive water features was highlighted following three outbreaks of cryptosporidiosis in the United Kingdom, all of which were related to public water features. In August 2003 the Health Protection Agency South West of England was notified of an outbreak of cryptosporidiosis associated with an interactive water feature designed for water play within an adventure park. The water feature was implicated following samples with a high coliform count and the presence of faecal coliforms. A case was defined as any child (younger than 16 years of age) who had visited the park during August and who subsequently had gastrointestinal symptoms and a faecal sample positive for cryptosporidium. Seventy one children were identified in the cohort. This outbreak of cryptosporidiosis was characterised by a very high attack rate (89%), relatively severe in duration (median 8 days) and had a relatively high hospital admission (16% of cases). The epidemic curve was consistent with a point source of infection, which corresponded to the date 80% of the cohort visited the park. This outbreak has similarities to two other cryptosporidiosis outbreaks reported in England in 2003 that involved public water features. These outbreaks raise issues about the operation and maintenance of water-based recreational attractions that very often involve children. The paper reflects on the basic control measures that can be taken and highlights the need for guidelines, especially since such attractions are becoming increasingly common. The Pool Water Treatment Advisory Group in United Kingdom has now produced guidelines.

Child↗

The outbreak of SARS at Tan Tock Seng Hospital--relating epidemiology to control.

INTRODUCTION: The outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) began after the index case was admitted on 1 March 2003. We profile the cases suspected to have acquired the infection in Tan Tock Seng Hospital (TTSH), focussing on major transmission foci, and also describe and discuss the impact of our outbreak control measures. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using the World Health Organization (WHO) case definitions for probable SARS adapted to the local context, we studied all cases documented to have passed through TTSH less than 10 days prior to the onset of fever. Key data were collected in liaison with clinicians and through a team of onsite epidemiologists. RESULTS: There were 105 secondary cases in TTSH. Healthcare staff (57.1%) formed the majority, followed by visitors (30.5%) and inpatients (12.4%). The earliest case had onset of fever on 4 March 2003, and the last case, on 5 April 2003. Eighty-nine per cent had exposures to 7 wards which had cases of SARS that were not isolated on admission. In 3 of these wards, major outbreaks resulted, each with more than 20 secondary cases. Attack rates amongst ward-based staff ranged from 0% to 32.5%. Of 13 inpatients infected, only 4 (30.8%) had been in the same room or cubicle as the index case for the ward. CONCLUSIONS: The outbreak of SARS at TTSH showed the challenges of dealing with an emerging infectious disease with efficient nosocomial spread. Super-spreading events and initial delays in outbreak response led to widespread dissemination of the outbreak to multiple wards.

Adolescent↗

[Molecular characterization and phylogenetic analysis of enteroviruses inducing the outbreaks and seasonal rises of morbidity in different regions of the Republic of Belarus].

As shown by the results of the analysis, viruses ECHO 30 circulating over the period of the last 8 years in Belarus, belonged to 3 different genetic subtypes which earlier or simultaneously circulated in other European states. The outbreaks of enterovirus infections (EVI) were facilitated by the appearance of a genetic viral subtype, relatively "new" for human population, and which had not earlier circulated on this territory. Thus, the development of outbreak morbidity in 2003 was caused by a change in the dominating subtype of virus ECHO 30, which caused the outbreak of 1997. The relatively "soft" rise of morbidity in 2004 was due to the continued circulation of the same subtype of virus ECHO 30, that in 2003. The largest outbreaks of EVI in the Republic of Belarus had a number of considerable differences: the outbreak of 1997 in Gomel was characterized by the genetic heterogeneity of infective agents, being simultaneously geographically localized within the limits of one city. However, during the outbreaks of 2003 the circulation of genetically closely related viruses of the one subtype among the population of geographically remote regions of the country was registered.

Capsid Proteins↗

[Analysis of an adult measles outbreak in the eastern part of Ehime prefecture in Japan].

PURPOSE: An outbreak of adult measles occurring in the eastern part of Ehime prefecture in Japan was analyzed, and the future directions of measures against infectious diseases in public health centers was studied. METHOD: An outbreak of adult measles (in individuals more than 18 years old) occurred in the eastern part of Ehime prefecture between October 2002 and July 2003. During this outbreak, provisional surveillance of adult measles as well as pediatric measles (less than 18 years old) was performed by all clinics and hospitals in addition to that by The Ehime Epidemiological Surveillance of Infectious Diseases (sentinel surveillance). Furthermore, identification of viral genes was performed from pediatric and adult measles patient samples. RESULTS: 112 cases of measles in adults and 200 cases in children were reported in Ehime between October 2002 and July 2003, and the rates for the eastern part of the prefecture accounted for 89.7% and 94.1% respectively. The relation between the pediatric measles and adult measles could be followed by change in the outbreak number of patients week by week. The genotype of the measles viruses isolated was type H1, which is prevalent in China and Korea. The results of an epidemiological survey showed that 59.3% of adult and 84.1% of pediatric cases had not been vaccinated. The measles vaccination rates for adult and pediatric cases were 21.9% and 11.4%, respectively. While the number of measles cases detected by sentinel pediatric surveillance comprised 32.0% of the measles cases reported by all pediatricians, the figure for adult measles cases was only 11.6% of those reported by all clinics and hospitals. CONCLUSIONS: It was suggested that improvement in the vaccination rates and revaccination rates mainly among school children or young people is necessary to prevent measles outbreaks. The surveillance system must be strengthened to increase the number of sentinel hospitals because an outbreak may not be detected with the current approach, especially for measles among adults. Positive information exchange between public health centers and medical institutions also appear to be particularly important.

Adolescent↗

Emergence of Vibrio cholerae O1 biotype El Tor serotype Inaba causing outbreaks of cholera in Orissa, India.

A total of 431 rectal swabs, collected from acute diarrheal cases at a surveillance site and at different diarrheal outbreak areas of Orissa from May to October 2005, were bacteriologically analyzed. Out of 265 culture-positive samples, Vibrio cholerae O1 was isolated in 56 samples (20.8%), of which 37 were the Inaba serotype and 19 were the Ogawa. The antibiogram profile revealed that all the V. cholerae O1 Ogawa and Inaba serotypes were uniformly sensitive to ampicillin, chloramphenicol, gentamicin, ciprofloxacin, norfloxacin and tetracycline. The V. cholerae O1 Inaba serotypes were resistant to furazolidone and nalidixic acid, while the Ogawa strains were resistant to furazolidone, nalidixic acid and neomycin. The multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay on some selected strains of both serotypes revealed that all the strains were positive for ctxA and tcpA genes showing biotype El Tor. The present study revealed the emergence of V. cholerae O1 biotype El Tor serotype Inaba, which caused sporadic outbreaks of cholera in 2005. The outbreaks of diarrheal disorders in one geographical area of the state (in the Pattamundai area, Kendrapara district) in 2005 were due to V. cholerae O1 Ogawa, whereas the other outbreaks in other areas (Puri, Khurda and Dhenkanal districts) from August to October 2005 were due to V. cholerae O1 serotype Inaba. This is the first report that an emergence of V. cholerae O1 serotype Inaba caused sporadic outbreaks of cholera in different parts of Orissa. Switching over of V. cholerae O1 Ogawa strains to Inaba, causing diarrheal outbreaks in Orissa, needs close monitoring.

Cholera↗

Public health response to varicella outbreaks--United States, 2003-2004.

Since introduction of varicella vaccine in 1995, incidence of varicella has decreased as vaccination coverage has increased. Nevertheless, varicella outbreaks continue to occur, even among populations with high vaccination coverage. Although varicella typically is mild, the outbreaks can last for several months and be challenging and costly for health departments to control. In 2005, CDC conducted a national survey to determine the distribution and extent of reported varicella outbreaks during 2003-2004 and the public health response. This report summarizes the results of that survey, which indicated that varicella outbreaks are still common and that health jurisdictions are responding to these outbreaks, although they have varying definitions and guidelines for varicella-outbreak management.

Chickenpox↗

Outbreak of respiratory tract infections on an islet in Korea: possible Chlamydia pneumoniae infection.

In March 2004, we experienced an outbreak of Chlamydia pneumoniae infection on an islet of Korea. In order to assess the significance of the epidemic, we performed a mass examination of 137 students (7-16 years old; male, 69; female, 58) at a school. The examination consisted of a questionnaire inquiring about respiratory symptoms, a serum antibody test for C. pneumoniae using a microimmunofluorescence (MIF) method and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), and nasopharyngeal swab tests to detect of the organism by specific PCR and cell culture. The results demonstrated that 72 (58.3%) of the students had respiratory symptoms such as rhinorrhea, a sore throat, and/or cough or fever. The PCR positivity of acute-phase patients was 63% (12/19) and PCR positivity using the culture sample was 94% (18/19). However, the existence of the organism was not confirmed fluorescein isothiocyanate (FITC). ELISA, one of the serological methods utilized, demonstrated, in the same patients, 48% (13/27) positive IgM antibodies at the acute phase of the outbreak, and 16% (3/19) positive IgM antibodies during the convalescent phase. The index value (ID) 3.0 for single-sera IgG was 19% (5/27) and that for IgA was 4% (1/27) at the acute phase; the corresponding percentages in the convalescent phase were 11% (2/19) and 5% (1/19), respectively. However, as regards paired sera, no patient demonstrated a 1.35 ELISA ID value at 2 weeks, or an increased value of 1.0 at 8 weeks after the onset of the outbreak. In the MIF experiment, the percent positivity of unpaired IgM from the acute phase was 58% (11/19). At convalescent phase, this percentage was 47% (9/19); however, the positivity of paired serum IgG was 26% (5/19). In the same sample, the percentage of positive cases demonstrated by both ELISA and MIF approaches for single IgM was 37% (7/19) at the acute phase and 11% (2/19) at the convalescent phase. We were unable to isolate C. pneumoniae by cell culture, but we did obtain sufficient serological and PCR data to consider C. pneumoniae as the causative agent of the outbreak. Meaningful results were acquired in terms of serology, and were compared to the healthy population in Korea. Although it remains necessary to investigate the possibility of co-infection and to determine whether or not this outbreak coincides with the prevalence of influenza, it was unequivocally concluded that this outbreak of C. pneumoniae infection has occurred on an islet of Korea.

Adolescent↗

[Measures to prevent outbreaks of hospital infections].

On the basis of the analysis of 69 outbreaks of hospital infections registered in the USSR in 1986-1989, as well as additional observations made by the authors, a number of factors which determined the present state of the problems concerning this kind of morbidity in the USSR were established: an insufficient level (in cases of enteric infections) or a low level (in cases of purulent septic infections) of etiological diagnosis; poor efficiency of the epidemiological investigation of outbreaks; defects in the work on the prophylactic detection of potential sources of infection among medical staff, parturient women or mothers taking care of their infants. Some possible solutions on these aspects were proposed. Cases of outbreaks of hospital infections among newborns were used as an example demonstrating that such outbreaks were caused mainly by breaches of antiepidemic and sanitary rules in respective hospitals; thus, in one-third of the cases of outbreaks such breaches were observed in maternity clinics with insufficient material and technical equipment. The prevention of these breaches is considered to be the main road to the solution of the whole problem of the prevention of epidemic outbreaks in hospitals.

Adult↗

[Conclusions from the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in the government district of Hannover in 1987/1988].

Knösel und Tiroke (1989) reported recently experiences derived from the control of FMD outbreaks in 1987/88 in Lower Saxony (FRG). On the basis of the described facts and in connection with the observations of the other outbreaks during the last 20 years in the FRG several conclusions were drawn: (1) The compulsory annual vaccination was not able to prevent these outbreaks. (2) Hence follows that very probable introductions of FMD from foreign countries cannot be prevented, especially since such infections were due to infected swill fed to pigs, and those strains were normally not related to the vaccine strains used. (3) Considering all circumstances of the recent outbreaks, it seems unrealistic to believe the primary infection was not due to the escape of virus from the neighboring vaccine plant. (4) The annual vaccination campaigns since 1970 against FMD were useless because most of the primary outbreaks of FMD since then can be traced to the production or the application of vaccines. (5) The legislative control measures are not sufficient to prevent secondary outbreaks. It was recommended to extend the quarantine areas as well as the radius of ring vaccination and to prolong the period of quarantine. (6) The regulation of tremendous losses of trade is obscure because camouflage of the origin of infections blocks the application of the principle of ultimate responsibility. Facit: Eradication of the disease and strict prevention of its introduction into Europe should be the principal strategy of FMD control for the future instead of imperfect protecting one species of the susceptible animal population.

Animals↗

Medical students as sources of rubella and measles outbreaks.

Medical students demonstrate a high degree of susceptibility to rubella and measles, and hence are at risk for infection and transmission of these viruses. The purpose of our study was to examine the role medical students play as sources or vectors in rubella and measles outbreaks. We conducted a survey of all US and Canadian public health departments to determine how often students were implicated in outbreaks (response rate, 88.7%). We also performed a literature search to identify any cases not reported to health departments, as well as examined the medical, social, and economic consequences of such outbreaks in the medical setting. Since 1981, 9% of health departments have recorded at least one outbreak of rubella or measles in which medical students were specifically implicated as sources or vectors. Increased morbidity, mortality, and adverse economic consequences resulted from these outbreaks. Our data confirm that medical students are important sources/vectors in rubella and measles outbreaks. We recommend that all medical students be immune to these viruses.

Canada↗

Several sporadic outbreaks of El Tor cholera in Sunpathong, Chiang Mai, September-October, 1987.

From September through October 1987, a cholera outbreak involving 59 cases of biotype El Tor, serotype Inaba occurred in Sunpathong district, Chiang Mai. No cases died. Twenty-seven cases were males and 32 were females. The age ranged between 4 months and 85 years, with a median of 36 years. The outbreak affected 7 small communities, and showed different vehicles of infection. Six housewives and one girl were infected with cholera in the first localized outbreak. The transmission of infection appeared due to the consumption of packed food contaminated by an infected food handler. In the second localized outbreak, 6 young males acquired cholera after eating uncooked fish harvested from a canal contaminated with cholera organisms. Another outbreak of cholera with 24 culture-confirmed cases occurred among guests at a funeral held in one rural village. The source of infection was traced to uncooked pork contaminated from an infected butcher: Early detection of infected persons, rapid identification of possible vehicles of transmission, and prompt implementation of control measures effectively curtailed the extension of these outbreaks.

Adolescent↗

Waterborne enteric disease outbreaks in Israel, 1976-1985.

Waterborne enteric disease remains a major public health problem in developing countries, as well as in developed countries, such that the World Health Organization declared 1981-90 the International Water Decade. Israeli experience with waterborne disease outbreaks in the decade 1976-85 is reviewed. Community water systems accounted for 52 outbreaks, with 25 occurring between 1976 and 1980 and 27 between 1981 and 1985. Total cases reported in these outbreaks were 7,681 and 10,880 respectively. In the latter period, reported cases resulting from these outbreaks constituted a very high percentage of the total reported cases of diarrheal disease in the country. The waterborne disease outbreaks were mostly due to secondary contamination of water systems due to human error and poor maintenance. In comparison with the United States, Israel experienced 18.7 times as many community waterborne disease outbreaks per capita. The need for routine preventive chlorination, and filtration on a selective basis, of community drinking water systems is strongly indicated, as recommended in current United States and World Health Organization guidelines in order to improve this grossly substandard aspect of Israeli public health.

Bacterial Infections↗

Epidemiology of common-source outbreaks of shigellosis in the United States, 1961-1975.

In 1961-1975, there were 72 foodborne and 38 waterborne outbreaks of shigellosis reported in the United States. Foodborne outbreaks were most often caused by salads with contamination attributed to poor hygiene of a food handler. Waterborne outbreaks most often involved semipublic water systems, and were usually the result of inadequate chlorination of water contaminated by human feces. In 110 common-source outbreaks, 16,541 persons were ill. The attack rate for both food- and waterborne shigellosis was 47%, and the case-fatality ratio was 0.1% in foodborne outbreaks and 0.2% in waterborne outbreaks.

Disease Outbreaks↗