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Results for “prognostic stratification”

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PubMed1999

The role of exercise-based prognosticating algorithms in the selection of patients for heart transplantation.

The selection of patients for heart transplantation involves the use of multiple prognostic variables. Because of the complexity of the clinical syndrome of heart failure, central cardiac and peripheral maladaptations occur. Exercise capacity simultaneously assesses cardiovascular reserve and evaluates the peripheral maladaptations; accordingly, exercise testing has become an increasingly important tool in the risk stratification of these patients. Established prognostic indicators in heart failure are reviewed. The role exercise testing plays in selecting ambulatory patients for heart transplantation is emphasized.

Algorithms↗

PubMed1993

Serum lactate dehydrogenase level as a prognostic factor in Hodgkin's disease.

The efficacy of currently available treatments for Hodgkin's disease (HD) has led to a substantial modification in the prognosis of this disease; nevertheless there is still a group of patients that cannot be cured with conventional treatments and who will be candidates for alternative therapy. In the present work we analysed the prognostic influence of the most relevant clinico-biological characteristics of HD in a consecutive series of 137 patients diagnosed and treated in a single institution. Univariate analyses identified six variables with significant prognostic influence, both on achieving complete remission (CR) and overall survival (OS); LDH > 320 U ml-1, age > 45 years, stages IIB, III and IV, extranodal involvement, alkaline phosphatase > 190 UI dl and ESR > 40 mm h. In addition, Hb < 12.5 gr dl-1 and abdominal disease were statistically relevant for CR while a poor performance score (ECOG > or = 2) affected a lower survival. In the multivariate analysis only LDH, age and the clinical stage retained a significant prognostic influence for achieving CR, while the two first factors above, together with performance status were the variables with independent prognostic value with respect to OS. Moreover, only LDH > 320 U ml-1 had prognostic influence in the probability of relapse and disease free survival (DFS), both in the univariate and multivariate analyses. According to the three independent factors obtained in the multivariate analysis for CR (LDH, age and stage) a predictive model was established that allows the stratification of patients into two prognostic groups: one with poor prognosis that includes patients with the three adverse prognostic factors, or two if one of them was elevated LDH, and the other with good prognosis that includes the remaining patients. This model was also able to separate two independent groups of patients with respect to OS and to DFS. In conclusion, the present study shows that LDH is one of the most important prognostic factors in HD.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2026

MRI-based radiomics model for predicting VEGFA expression and prognosis in lower-grade glioma.

BACKGROUND: Gliomas are the most common primary tumors of the central nervous system. Their treatment remains highly challenging, with high rates of associated disability and mortality. Conventional prognostic indicators no longer adequately satisfy the clinical demands of precision medicine. Therefore, it is essential to further explore novel prognostic biomarkers to enable accurate risk stratification and to provide new reference indicators for personalized precision therapy. PURPOSES: This study aimed to investigate the prognostic significance of vascular endothelial growth factor A (VEGFA) in patients diag nosed with lower-grade gliomas (LGGs) using an MRI based radiomics model. METHODS: Data regarding VEGFA expression and clinical records of LGG patients were retrieved from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). Corresponding preoperative MRI data were obtained from The Cancer Imaging Archive (TCIA) for radiomic feature extraction. Patients were stratified into high- and low- VEGFA expression groups based on survival information from the current cohort using the survminer package. The overall survival (OS) was assessed using Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression. Predictive models were developed using logistic regression (LR), and model performance was evaluated via receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, with area under the curve (AUC) values reported. An optimized model incorporating the Akaike information criterion (AIC) was also constructed (AIC-LR). RESULTS: VEGFA expression was significantly associated with OS (P = 0.002). Multivariate Cox regression confirmed VEGFA as an independent prognostic factor (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.545, 95% confidence interval: 1.422-4.555). Furthermore, VEGFA expression correlated with immune infiltration levels, particularly of M1 and M2 macrophages and T follicular helper cells, and was associated with enrichment in Wnt signaling and B cell receptor signaling pathways. The LR and AIC-LR models demonstrated acceptable predictive performance, with AUCs of 0.728 (95% CI: 0.612-0.843) and 0.725(95% CI: 0.612-0.839) in the training cohort, and 0.704 (95% CI: 0.562-0.847) and 0.718(95% CI: 0.576-0.861) in the validation cohort, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The MRI based radiomics model showed potential for noninvasive assessment of VEGFA expression and may provide auxiliary information for prognostic evaluation in LGG. Further validation in larger samples and independent external cohorts is required before clinical application.

Radiomics↗

PubMed1992

Tissue polypeptide antigen in breast cancer cytosol: a new effective prognostic indicator.

Since 1982 we have been evaluating oestrogen and progesterone receptors (PgR), cathepsin D and the cytosolic levels of the tumour marker, tissue polypeptide antigen (TPA), in 257 patients radically resected for breast cancer (follow-up 24-81 months). TPA was measured by an immunoradiometric assay previously validated for cytosol. No significant associations were found between cytosolic TPA and age, tumour size, lymph-node status, receptor status and cathepsin D. TPA+ cases showed a significantly longer disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) than TPA-patients (log-rank P < 0.0001). The prognostic value of cytosolic TPA was also demonstrated after stratification by nodal status, PgR and cathepsin D. The prognostic value of TPA was independent of the other prognostic indicators, being the most powerful among the evaluated indices (Cox multivariate analysis: chi 2 15.5 for DFS, 11.4 for OS). We conclude that cytosolic TPA is a powerful additional prognostic factor in primary breast cancer. Its prognostic role should therefore be extensively evaluated.

Antigens, Neoplasm↗

PubMed2002

Prognostic value of enhanced bone marrow angiogenesis in early B-cell chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

Because tumor progression is angiogenesis-dependent, angiogenesis density was investigated by immunohistochemistry and computed image analysis in bone marrow (BM) biopsies of 45 newly diagnosed patients with Binet stage A B-cell chronic lymphocytic leukemia (BCLL) and correlated to upstaging and progression-free survival during a 40-month follow-up period. Their microvessel areas and counts were significantly higher than those of patients with anemia due to iron or vitamin B(12) deficiencies. A cutoff value of 0.90 mm(2) x 10(-2) or greater of the microvessel area identified patients with earlier upstaging and shorter progression-free survival. When the cutoff was applied to the Rai subclassification, both Rai 0 and Rai I-II patients who upstaged and shortened the progression-free survival were classified correctly. Information of this type was not given by the microvessel counts. The cutoff did not correlate with other predictors representative of tumor mass or disease progression. The microvessel area correlated with the expression of angiogenic vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) by tumor tissue, and serum levels of VEGF were found to be of prognostic value. A causal relationship between risk of progression and BM angiogenesis in BCLL is suggested. A risk stratification inside Rai is proposed. The prognostic usefulness of BM angiogenesis in patients with BCLL is envisaged.

Adult↗

PubMed2000

An analysis of p16 tumour suppressor gene expression in acral lentiginous melanoma.

Acral lentiginous melanoma is a particularly aggressive melanocytic lesion but, due to its comparative rarity, biological investigations into the behaviour of this subtype of melanoma are lacking. The activity of the recently described p16 tumour suppressor gene, thought to be the 'familial melanoma gene', was studied in 24 patients with subungual melanoma and 44 patients with plantar melanoma. Lower levels of p16 oncoprotein were demonstrated than that found in other histogenetic types of melanoma. Stratification of patients of all disease stages revealed a poorer survival in patients with low p16 expression (log rank test, chi(2)= 3.9, P = 0. 05). These data suggest that p16 inactivation may play an important role in the development and progression of acral lentiginous melanomas. However, the level of p16 expression was not prognostic since survival analysis on stratification of stage I patients according to p16 level did not reach statistical significance for both survival and disease free interval.

Aged↗

PubMed1996

Effective risk stratification using exercise myocardial perfusion SPECT in women: gender-related differences in prognostic nuclear testing.

OBJECTIVES: This study was designed to evaluate the incremental prognostic value over clinical and exercise variables of rest thallium-201/exercise technetium-99m sestamibi single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) in women compared with men and to determine whether this test can be used to effectively risk stratify patients of both genders. BACKGROUND: To minimize the previously described gender-related bias in the evaluation of coronary artery disease in women, there is a need to identify a noninvasive testing strategy that is able to accurately and effectively risk stratify women. METHODS: We identified 4,136 consecutive patients (2,742 men, 1,394 women) who underwent dual-isotope SPECT. The incremental value of nuclear testing was determined using both a stepwise Cox proportional hazards model and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed to determine test discrimination for high risk patients in men and women. RESULTS: The patient population was followed up for 20 +/- 5 months for events (cardiac death or nonfatal myocardial infarction). During this time, 63 myocardial infarctions and 32 cardiac deaths occurred in the men, and 31 myocardial infarctions and 14 cardiac deaths occurred in the women. Nuclear testing significantly stratified both men and women irrespective of their rest electrocardiogram. Cox proportional hazards analysis revealed that nuclear testing added incremental prognostic value in both men and women after inclusion of the most predictive clinical exercise variables (overall chi-square 89 in men vs. 120 in women, p < 0.005). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrated that nuclear testing further stratified men and women with both intermediate to high and low prescan likelihoods of coronary artery disease (p < 0.005 for all). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis demonstrated superior discrimination for the nuclear scan results in identifying high risk women than men (area under the curve: 0.84 +/- 0.03 vs 0.71 +/- 0.03 in men, p < 0005). The odds ratio comparing event rates in patients with women than in men, suggesting superior stratification using nuclear testing in women. CONCLUSIONS: Dual-isotope myocardial perfusion imaging yields incremental prognostic value in both men and women. This modality identifies low risk women and men equally well but relatively high risk women more accurately than relatively high risk men and, thus, is able to stratify women more effectively than men.

Bias↗

PubMed2026

ERP44 Is Associated With Poor Prognosis and Promotes Proliferation and Temozolomide Resistance in Lower-grade Glioma.

BACKGROUND/AIM: Endoplasmic reticulum resident protein 44 (ERP44), a protein disulfide isomerase family member, has been implicated in tumor biology, but its role in lower-grade glioma (LGG) remains unclear. This study investigated the prognostic significance and biological function of ERP44 in LGG, focusing on proliferation and temozolomide (TMZ) resistance. MATERIALS AND METHODS: ERP44 expression, clinicopathological associations, and prognostic value were analyzed using The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx), and Chinese Glioma Genome Atlas (CGGA) datasets. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, Cox regression, and a prognostic nomogram were constructed. Differential expression, Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA), Gene Ontology (GO) enrichment, immune infiltration, and drug sensitivity analyses were performed. Functional validation was conducted in SW1088 and SW1783 cells using shRNA-mediated ERP44 knockdown, followed by RT-qPCR, western blotting, CCK-8, colony formation, and TMZ IC50 assays. Subcutaneous xenograft models with or without TMZ treatment were used for in vivo validation. RESULTS: ERP44 was markedly upregulated in LGG and associated with higher WHO grade, IDH wildtype status, 1p/19q non-codeletion, and poor survival in TCGA and CGGA cohorts. ERP44 showed strong prognostic performance and improved risk stratification in a multivariable nomogram. Enrichment analyses linked high ERP44 expression to immune/inflammatory pathways and reduced neuronal functional signatures. ERP44 positively correlated with immune infiltration, proliferation/stemness markers, and predicted TMZ resistance, while its knockdown inhibited proliferation and colony formation, reduced TMZ IC50, suppressed xenograft growth, enhanced TMZ efficacy, and decreased Ki67 positivity. CONCLUSION: ERP44 is a prognostic biomarker that promotes LGG proliferation and TMZ resistance, suggesting its potential as a therapeutic target.

Humans↗

PubMed1998

Prognostic factors for survival of patients treated systemically for disseminated melanoma.

PURPOSE: The current American Joint Commission on Cancer (AJCC) staging system distinguishes between soft tissue and visceral metastases in advanced (stage IV) melanoma. We sought to verify these staging criteria and to identify prognostic variables that could be used to evaluate the impact of systemic therapy on long-term survival during the prior decade. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study of patients with advanced cutaneous melanoma enrolled in clinical trials between 1979 and 1989 at The University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center. Pretreatment age, sex, number of organs with metastases, serum levels of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and albumin, and period of enrollment were analyzed using a Cox proportional hazards model of survival. RESULTS: In univariate and multivariate analyses that involved 318 stage IV patients, normal serum levels of LDH and albumin, soft tissue and/or single visceral organ metastases (especially lung), female sex, and enrollment late in the decade were independent positive predictors for survival. In multivariate analyses, the current AJCC criteria did not significantly predict outcome. Systemic treatment response did not bias these results, and only 4% of patients had a complete response. Patients who lived more than 2 years (11%) had a mix of favorable prognostic characteristics and a high frequency of systemic or surgically induced complete response. CONCLUSION: This study supports the use of stratification parameters that reflect the favorable prognostic impact of soft tissue or single visceral organ metastases and normal serum levels of LDH and albumin at time of enrollment in advanced melanoma trials. Improved survival over the prior decade probably reflects advances in diagnostic and palliative interventions.

Adult↗

PubMed2026

Targeting RELA and STAT3 regulates TNFRSF10A-mediated apoptosis in a novel apoptosis-based prognostic model for clear cell renal cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) is the most common subtype of renal malignancy and remains a major cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide. Although advances in surgery, targeted therapy, and immunotherapy have improved outcomes for patients, reliable biomarkers for predicting prognosis remain limited. Therefore, robust gene-based prognostic models are urgently needed to improve risk stratification and guide individualized treatment strategies. METHODS: We developed a novel prognostic model integrating apoptosis and immune - related genes (AIRGs) to predict overall survival (OS) in patients with ccRCC. RESULT: Using Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA) combined with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression, we identified 7 key prognostic genes, namely, CCR4, TNFRSF10A, TEK, TGFA, CD14, IFITM1, and SEMA3G, that collectively demonstrated strong predictive performance in TCGA cohort with c-index = 0.711. Functional enrichment analyses revealed that apoptosis, immune regulation, and multiple oncogenic signaling pathways were significantly associated with the risk score, highlighting the critical role of the tumor microenvironment in ccRCC progression. Transcription factor binding analysis based on the JASPAR database suggested that RELA and STAT3 with scores of 0.829 and 0.951, respectively are potential upstream regulators within the prognostic network, particularly influencing TNFRSF10A expression. External validation using the International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) dataset confirmed the robustness of the prognostic model with c-index = 0.612 Furthermore, in vitro experiments demonstrated that RELA and STAT3 regulate TNFRSF10A-mediated apoptotic signaling in ccRCC cells, providing mechanistic support for the bioinformatic findings. CONCLUSION: This study establishes a biologically informed and clinically relevant prognostic framework for ccRCC. Our findings highlight the therapeutic potential of targeting the RELA/STAT3-TNFRSF10A axis and contribute to the advancement of precision medicine in ccRCC.

Humans↗

PubMed1999

Use of the RTOG recursive partitioning analysis to validate the benefit of iodine-125 implants in the primary treatment of malignant gliomas.

PURPOSE: To date, numerous retrospective studies have suggested that the addition of brachytherapy to the conventional treatment of malignant gliomas (MG) (surgical resection followed by radiotherapy +/- chemotherapy) leads to improvements in survival. Two randomized trials have suggested either a positive or no survival benefit with implants. Critics of retrospective reports have suggested that the improvement in patient survival is due to selection bias. A recursive analysis by the RTOG of MG trials has stratified MG patients into 6 prognostically significant classes. We used the RTOG criteria to analyze the implant data at Wayne State University to determine the impact of selection bias. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Between July 1991 and January 1998, 75 patients were treated with a combination of surgery, radiotherapy, and stereotactic I-125 implant as primary MG management. Forty-one (54.7%) were male; 34 (45.3%) female. Median age was 52 years (range 4-79). Twenty-two (29.3%) had anaplastic astrocytoma (AA); 53 (70.7%), glioblastoma multiforme (GBM). Seventy-two patients had data making them eligible for stratification into the 6 RTOG prognostic classes (I-VI). Median Karnofsky performance status (KPS) was 90 (range 50-100). There were 14, 0, 14, 31, 12, and 1 patients in Classes I to VI, respectively. Median follow-up time for AA, GBM, and any surviving patient was 29, 12.5, and 35 months, respectively. RESULTS: At analysis, 29 (40.3%) patients were alive; 43 (59.7%), dead. For AA and GBM patients, 2-year and median survivals were: 58% and 40%; 38 and 17 months, respectively. For analysis purposes, Classes I and II, V and VI were merged. By class, the 2-year survival for implanted patients compared to the RTOG data base was: III--68% vs. I--76%; III--74% vs. 35%; IV--34% vs. 15%; V/VI--29% vs. V--6%. For implant patients, median survival by class was (in months): I/II--37; III--31; IV--16; V/VI--11. CONCLUSION: When applied to MG patients receiving permanent I-125 implant, the criteria of the RTOG recursive partitioning analysis are a valid tool to define prognostically distinct survival groups. As reflected in the RTOG study, a downward survival trend for the implant patients is seen from "best to worse" class patients. Compared to the RTOG database, median survival achieved by the addition of implant is improved most demonstrably for the poorer prognostic classes. This would suggest that selection bias alone does not account for the survival benefit seen with I-125 implant and would contradict the notion that the patients most eligible for implant are those gaining the most benefit from the treatment. In light of the contradictory results from two randomized studies and given the present results, further randomized studies with effective stratification are required since the evidence for a survival benefit with brachytherapy (as seen in retrospective studies) is substantial.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2005

Profile of immune cells in axillary lymph nodes predicts disease-free survival in breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: While lymph node metastasis is among the strongest predictors of disease-free and overall survival for patients with breast cancer, the immunological nature of tumor-draining lymph nodes is often ignored, and may provide additional prognostic information on clinical outcome. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We performed immunohistochemical analysis of 47 sentinel and 104 axillary (nonsentinel) nodes from 77 breast cancer patients with 5 y of follow-up to determine if alterations in CD4, CD8, and CD1a cell populations predict nodal metastasis or disease-free survival. Sentinel and axillary node CD4 and CD8 T cells were decreased in breast cancer patients compared to control nodes. CD1a dendritic cells were also diminished in sentinel and tumor-involved axillary nodes, but increased in tumor-free axillary nodes. Axillary node, but not sentinel node, CD4 T cell and dendritic cell populations were highly correlated with disease-free survival, independent of axillary metastasis. Immune profiling of ALN from a test set of 48 patients, applying CD4 T cell and CD1a dendritic cell population thresholds of CD4 > or = 7.0% and CD1a > or = 0.6%, determined from analysis of a learning set of 29 patients, provided significant risk stratification into favorable and unfavorable prognostic groups superior to clinicopathologic characteristics including tumor size, extent or size of nodal metastasis (CD4, p < 0.001 and CD1a, p < 0.001). Moreover, axillary node CD4 T cell and CD1a dendritic cell populations allowed more significant stratification of disease-free survival of patients with T1 (primary tumor size 2 cm or less) and T2 (5 cm or larger) tumors than all other patient characteristics. Finally, sentinel node immune profiles correlated primarily with the presence of infiltrating tumor cells, while axillary node immune profiles appeared largely independent of nodal metastases, raising the possibility that, within axillary lymph nodes, immune profile changes and nodal metastases represent independent processes. CONCLUSION: These findings demonstrate that the immune profile of tumor-draining lymph nodes is of novel biologic and clinical importance for patients with early stage breast cancer.

Adult↗

PubMed2004

Symptoms as well as tumor size provide prognostic information on patients with localized renal tumors.

PURPOSE: T stage stratification of organ confined renal tumors is based only on tumor size. Currently T1a and T1b are defined as tumors less or greater than 4 cm. However, to our knowledge the validity of this stratification has not been determined. We determined whether symptoms could add additional prognostic information when integrated with tumor size into the TNM classification. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients with T1-T2N0M0 renal tumors at 6 academic centers in Europe and the United States were included in this study. T stage was defined according to the 2002 TNM classification. Age, gender, T stage, tumor size, symptoms at presentation, Fuhrman grade and cancer specific survival were determined in all cases. Survival estimates were compared using the Kaplan-Meier method and multivariate analysis of the data were performed with the Cox model. RESULTS: A total of 1,771 patients with pT1-T2N0M0 renal tumors were included in this study. There were 1,148 males and 623 females. Mean age was 59.6 years. Median tumor size was 5 cm. Of the tumors 781 (44.1%), 616 (34.8%) and 374 (21.1%) were stages T1a, T1b and T2, respectively. In 825 patients (46.6%) symptoms were related to renal cancer. T stage and symptoms strongly correlated, in that 67%, 51% and 29% of patients with T1a, T1b and T2 tumors, respectively, were asymptomatic. Symptoms increased the risk of cause specific death for each T stage level. On multivariate analysis Fuhrman grade (HR 1.46), T stage (HR 1.81) and symptoms (HR 2.98) were independent predictors of survival. Based on these results 4 groups resulting from combinations of 2002 TNM stage and symptoms with significantly different risks of death were defined, namely 1) T1a-4 cm or less without symptoms, 2) T1b-4 cm or less with symptoms and greater than 4 cm without symptoms, 3) T2a-greater than 4 cm and 7 cm or less with symptoms, and 4) T2b-greater than 7 cm with symptoms CONCLUSIONS: In this study we noted that a system combining tumor size and symptoms can accurately stratify patients for predicting survival in those with organ confined renal tumors. Our data support the idea that symptoms should be integrated in further modifications of the TNM system.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2026

Value of TERT promoter mutations for early outcomes in papillary thyroid cancer.

Telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) promoter mutations are associated with aggressive clinicopathological features of papillary thyroid cancer (PTC). However, their independent prognostic value remains unclear. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic significance of TERT promoter mutations (TPMs) in predicting early treatment outcomes and event-free survival (EFS) in patients with PTC. We retrospectively analyzed a prospective cohort; patients underwent surgery at a single tertiary referral center between 2019 and 2022. Patients underwent thyroidectomy, selective postoperative radioactive iodine ablation, and levothyroxine suppression therapy. Propensity score matching (PSM, 1:1) was applied to adjust for baseline clinicopathological differences. Of 10,642 patients with available molecular data, 115 (1.1%) harbored TPMs. After PSM, 90 matched pairs of patients with TERT-wild-type and TERT-mutant tumors were analyzed. Early treatment responses at 1 and 2 years post-treatment and EFS were evaluated. Early treatment responses did not differ significantly between groups at 1 year (P = 0.212) and 2 years (P = 0.571). However, patients with TERT-mutant tumors had fewer excellent responses and higher rates of structural incomplete response. During follow-up, the TERT-mutant group experienced more recurrences and one disease-specific death. Cumulative EFS was significantly poorer in the TERT-mutant group than in the TERT-wild-type group (P = 0.022). Despite their low prevalence, TPMs were independently associated with adverse oncological outcomes, including higher rates of recurrence and mortality. TPMs may serve as valuable prognostic markers for early risk stratification in PTC.

Humans↗

PubMed1997

A new index of prognostic severity for chronic asthma.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a prognostic clinical index for adults with chronic stable asthma. DESIGN: Analysis of data from a 48-week randomized, crossover trial of regular vs as-needed inhaled beta-agonist therapy. PATIENTS: Eligible patients included 70 men and women between the ages of 15 and 64 years with asthma for > 1 year. OUTCOME MEASURE: Asthma deterioration within 20 weeks, defined as either a marked decline in FEV1 (> or = 1.0 L or > or = 30% from baseline) or initiation of systemic corticosteroid therapy for asthma exacerbation. RESULTS: Three baseline factors independently predicted asthma deterioration: frequent symptoms on waking in the 4 weeks before baseline, past hospitalization for asthma, and age 35 years or older. Based on cross-stratification and consolidation of these prognostic factors, an index was developed that stratified subjects into four risk groups with distinctive deterioration rates of 9%, 21%, 39%, and 67% (p<0.001). CONCLUSION: For adults with chronic stable asthma, three simple clinical factors can be combined to stratify effectively for risk of subsequent asthma deterioration.

Administration, Inhalation↗

PubMed2006

Hazardous to your health: kinetic foundations of risk stratification and therapeutic triage.

BACKGROUND: Risk stratification is widely used in the prognostic assessment of patients with a variety of clinical disorders on the unquestioned assumption that the intensity of treatment should be proportionate to the threat of an adverse event over some finite period of time (risk). However, just as the physical trajectory of an object depends on its current magnitude of displacement (velocity) and the concurrent rate of change of that displacement (acceleration), the prognostic trajectory of a patient depends on the current magnitude of risk and the concurrent rate of change of that risk (hazard). Clinical risk stratification nevertheless relies only on the former. METHODS: We therefore integrated the quantitative assessment of risk and hazard by way of a kinetic model that characterizes the development of an adverse event as a series of exponential state-to-state transitions-from stable to unstable to event. This model serves to shift the clinical emphasis from prognosis (the assessment of risk) to treatment (the improvement in outcome). In this context, treatment is well advised (even in low-risk individuals) when the hazard is large (risk is rising), and is less well advised (even in high-risk individuals) when the hazard is small (risk is stable). RESULTS: The kinetic model outlined here thereby promises to supersede the superficial practice of risk stratification with a more sophisticated strategy of therapeutic triage that allows one to predict the incremental clinical benefit of alternative treatment strategies.

Humans↗

PubMed1995

Neurohumoral measurements as indicators of long-term prognosis after acute myocardial infarction.

The objective of this study was to evaluate the prognostic accuracy and usefulness of neurohumoral determination as a risk stratification tool after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) by comparing the long-term prognostic value of subacute neurohumoral measurements with other established indicators of adverse outcome. The study included 145 patients with documented AMI. During a median follow-up of 3.7 years, 30 cardiovascular and 6 noncardiovascular deaths occurred. By univariate analysis, plasma atrial natriuretic factor (ANF) and endothelin levels were strongly related to long-term cardiovascular mortality. In multivariate models, both peptides added prognostic information to that obtained from clinical evaluation, but not to that obtained from left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Estimation of the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve showed comparable prognostic accuracy for LVEF (0.7788), plasma ANF (0.7795), plasma endothelin (0.7493), and Killip classification (0.8203), meaning that for all these prognostic indicators, a randomly selected patient from the group of patients dying will have a test value larger than that of a randomly selected patient from the group of surviving patients 75% to 82% of the time. The clinical usefulness of neurohumoral determination in routine risk stratification after AMI appears to be limited since no additional prognostic information to that provided by objective evaluation of LV systolic function is obtained. However, in patients for whom objective assessment of LV performance is not readily available, measurement of plasma ANF and endothelin may be helpful in identifying asymptomatic patients at risk for cardiac death.

Aged↗

PubMed2003

Clinical usefulness and prognostic value of elevated cardiac troponin I levels in acute pulmonary embolism.

BACKGROUND: Right ventricular myocardial ischemia and injury contribute to right ventricular dysfunction and failure during acute pulmonary embolism. The objective of this study was to evaluate the clinical usefulness of cardiac troponin I (cTnI) in the assessment of right ventricular involvement and short-term prognosis in acute pulmonary embolism METHODS: Thirty-eight patients with acute pulmonary embolism were included in the study. Clinical characteristics, right ventricular involvement, and clinical outcome were compared in patients with elevated levels of serum cTnI versus patients with normal levels of serum cTnI. RESULTS: Among the study population (n = 38 patients), 18 patients (47%) had elevated cTnI levels (mean +/- SD 1.6 +/- 0.7 ng/mL, range 0.7-3.7 ng/mL, median, 1.4 ng/mL), and comprised the cTnI-positive group. In the other 20 patients, the serum cTnI levels were normal (< or =0.4 ng/mL), and they comprised the cTnI-negative group. In the cTnI-positive group (n = 18 patients), 12 patients (67%) had right ventricular dilatation/hypokinesia, compared with 3 patients (15%) in the cTnI-negative group (n = 20 patients, P =.004). Right ventricular systolic pressure was significantly higher in the cTnI-positive group (51 +/- 8 mm Hg vs 40 +/- 9 mm Hg, P =.002). Cardiogenic shock developed in a significantly higher number of patients with elevated serum cTnI levels (33% vs 5%, P =.01). In patients with elevated cTnI levels, the odds ratio for development of cardiogenic shock was 8.8 (95% CI 2.5-21). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with acute pulmonary embolism with elevated serum cTnI levels are at a higher risk for the development of right ventricular dysfunction and cardiogenic shock. Serum cTnI has a role in risk stratification and short-term prognostication in patients with acute pulmonary embolism.

Adult↗