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Codon-substitution models to detect adaptive evolution that account for heterogeneous selective pressures among site classes.

The nonsynonymous to synonymous substitution rate ratio (omega = d(N)/d(S)) provides a sensitive measure of selective pressure at the protein level, with omega values <1, =1, and >1 indicating purifying selection, neutral evolution, and diversifying selection, respectively. Maximum likelihood models of codon substitution developed recently account for variable selective pressures among amino acid sites by employing a statistical distribution for the omega ratio among sites. Those models, called random-sites models, are suitable when we do not know a priori which sites are under what kind of selective pressure. Sometimes prior information (such as the tertiary structure of the protein) might be available to partition sites in the protein into different classes, which are expected to be under different selective pressures. It is then sensible to use such information in the model. In this paper, we implement maximum likelihood models for prepartitioned data sets, which account for the heterogeneity among site partitions by using different omega parameters for the partitions. The models, referred to as fixed-sites models, are also useful for combined analysis of multiple genes from the same set of species. We apply the models to data sets of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I alleles from human populations and of the abalone sperm lysin genes. Structural information is used to partition sites in MHC into two classes: those in the antigen recognition site (ARS) and those outside. Positive selection is detected in the ARS by the fixed-sites models. Similarly, sites in lysin are classified into the buried and solvent-exposed classes according to the tertiary structure, and positive selection was detected at the solvent-exposed sites. The random-sites models identified a number of sites under positive selection in each data set, confirming and elaborating the results of the fixed-sites models. The analysis demonstrates the utility of the fixed-sites models, as well as the power of previous random-sites models, which do not use the prior information to partition sites.

Alleles↗

Trans gene regulation in adaptive evolution: a genetic algorithm model.

This is a continuation of earlier studies on the evolution of infinite populations of haploid genotypes within a genetic algorithm framework. We had previously explored the evolutionary consequences of the existence of indeterminate-"plastic"-loci, where a plastic locus had a finite probability in each generation of functioning (being switched "on") or not functioning (being switched "off"). The relative probabilities of the two outcomes were assigned on a stochastic basis. The present paper examines what happens when the transition probabilities are biased by the presence of regulatory genes. We find that under certain conditions regulatory genes can improve the adaptation of the population and speed up the rate of evolution (on occasion at the cost of lowering the degree of adaptation). Also, the existence of regulatory loci potentiates selection in favour of plasticity. There is a synergistic effect of regulatory genes on plastic alleles: the frequency of such alleles increases when regulatory loci are present. Thus, phenotypic selection alone can be a potentiating factor in a favour of better adaptation.

Adaptation, Physiological↗

Molecular evolution in a multisite nearly neutral mutation model.

A simple nearly neutral mutation model of protein evolution was studied using computer simulation assuming a constant population size. In this model, a gene consists of a finite number of codons and there is no recombination within a gene. Each codon has two replacement and one silent sites. The fitness of a gene was determined multiplicatively by amino acids specified by codons (the independent multicodon model). Nucleotide diversity at replacement sites decreases as selection becomes stronger. A reduction of nucleotide diversity at silent sites also occurs as selection intensifies but the magnitude of the reduction is not a monotone function of the intensity of selection. The dispersion index is close to one. The average value of Tajima's and Fu and Li's statistics are negative and their absolute values increases as selection intensifies. However, their powers of detecting selection under the present model were not high unless the number of sites is large or mutation rate is high. The MK test was shown to detect intermediate selection fairly well. For comparison, the house-of-cards model was also investigated and its behavior was shown to be more sensitive to changes of population size than that of the independent multicodon model. The relevance of the present model for explaining protein evolution was discussed comparing its prediction and recent DNA data.

Amino Acid Substitution↗

A model of DNA sequence evolution.

Statistical studies of gene populations on the purine/pyrimidine alphabet have shown that the mean occurrence probability of the i-motif YRY(N)iYRY (R = purine, Y = pyrimidine, N = R or Y) is not uniform by varying i in the range, but presents a maximum at i = 6 in the following populations: protein coding genes of eukaryotes, prokaryotes, chloroplasts and mitochondria, and also viral introns, ribosomal RNA genes and transfer RNA genes (Arquès and Michel, 1987b, J. theor. Biol. 128, 457-461). From the "universality" of this observation, we suggested that the oligonucleotide YRY(N)6 is a primitive one and that it has a central function in DNA sequence evolution (Arquès and Michel, 1987b, J. theor. Biol. 128, 457-461). Following this idea, we introduce a concept of a model of DNA sequence evolution which will be validated according to a schema presented in three parts. In the first part, using the last version of the gene database, the YRY(N)6YRY preferential occurrence (maximum at i = 6) is confirmed for the populations mentioned above and is extended to some newly analysed populations: chloroplast introns, chloroplast 5' regions, mitochondrial 5' regions and small nuclear RNA genes. On the other hand, the YRY(N)6YRY preferential occurrence and periodicities are used in order to classify 18 gene populations. In the second part, we will demonstrate that several statistical features characterizing different gene populations (in particular the YRY(N)6YRY preferential occurrence and the periodicities) can be retrieved from a simple Markov model based on the mixing of the two oligonucleotides YRY(N)6 and YRY(N)3 and based on the percentages of RYR and YRY in the unspecified trinucleotides (N)3 of YRY(N)6 and YRY(N)3. Several properties are identified and prove in particular that the oligonucleotide mixing is an independent process and that several different features are functions of a unique parameter. In the third part, the return of the model to the reality shows a strong correlation between reality and simulation concerning the presence of a large alternating purine/pyrimidine stretches and of periodicities. It also contributes to a greater understanding of biological reality, e.g. the presence or the absence of large alternating purine/pyrimidine stretches can be explained as being a simple consequence of the mixing of two particular oligonucleotides. Finally, we believe that such an approach is the first step toward a unified model of DNA sequence evolution allowing the molecular understanding of both the origin of life and the actual biological reality.

Base Sequence↗

Reinforcement of pre-zygotic isolation and karyotype evolution in Agrodiaetus butterflies.

The reinforcement model of evolution argues that natural selection enhances pre-zygotic isolation between divergent populations or species by selecting against unfit hybrids or costly interspecific matings. Reinforcement is distinguished from other models that consider the formation of reproductive isolation to be a by-product of divergent evolution. Although theory has shown that reinforcement is a possible mechanism that can lead to speciation, empirical evidence has been sufficiently scarce to raise doubts about the importance of reinforcement in nature. Agrodiaetus butterflies (Lepidoptera: Lycaenidae) exhibit unusual variability in chromosome number. Whereas their genitalia and other morphological characteristics are largely uniform, different species vary considerably in male wing colour, and provide a model system to study the role of reinforcement in speciation. Using comparative phylogenetic methods, we show that the sympatric distribution of 15 relatively young sister taxa of Agrodiaetus strongly correlates with differences in male wing colour, and that this pattern is most likely the result of reinforcement. We find little evidence supporting sympatric speciation: rather, in Agrodiaetus, karyotypic changes accumulate gradually in allopatry, prompting reinforcement when karyotypically divergent races come into contact.

Animals↗

A model of the early evolution of soma-to-germline feedback.

The V-genes of the immunoglobulin locus in vertebrates code for a part of the heavy and light chain variable regions of antibodies and are extremely variable. Steele (1979) has developed a theory that explains the evolution of adaptive immune response by a soma-to-germline flow of cDNAs derived from somatically mutated V-genes. Here we model the early evolution of soma-to-germline feedback in a population living in a changing viral environment in terms of the dynamics of an initially rare genetic modifier that controls transfer of V-genes to germ cells' DNA. It is shown that a modifier invades the population and creates a great variety of V-genes if the environment follows stepwise temporal changes, i.e. a soma-to-germline feedback machinery evolves in a population if newly derived V-alleles still play a role in protecting the population against foreign antigens in some following generations. The distribution of the age of V-genes evolves to a bell-shaped curve the width and the maximum of which depend mainly on selection strength. Two phases of modifier evolution are distinguished. In the first phase, the dynamics are slow while the number of different V-genes is small. In the second phase, when a sufficiently large number of different V-genes is created, the modifier increases faster in frequency. Linkage of V-genes and the modifier enhances the rate of evolution.

Animals↗

Bayesian model adequacy and choice in phylogenetics.

Bayesian inference is becoming a common statistical approach to phylogenetic estimation because, among other reasons, it allows for rapid analysis of large data sets with complex evolutionary models. Conveniently, Bayesian phylogenetic methods use currently available stochastic models of sequence evolution. However, as with other model-based approaches, the results of Bayesian inference are conditional on the assumed model of evolution: inadequate models (models that poorly fit the data) may result in erroneous inferences. In this article, I present a Bayesian phylogenetic method that evaluates the adequacy of evolutionary models using posterior predictive distributions. By evaluating a model's posterior predictive performance, an adequate model can be selected for a Bayesian phylogenetic study. Although I present a single test statistic that assesses the overall (global) performance of a phylogenetic model, a variety of test statistics can be tailored to evaluate specific features (local performance) of evolutionary models to identify sources failure. The method presented here, unlike the likelihood-ratio test and parametric bootstrap, accounts for uncertainty in the phylogeny and model parameters.

Animals↗

Modeling viral genome fitness evolution associated with serial bottleneck events: evidence of stationary states of fitness.

Evolution of fitness values upon replication of viral populations is strongly influenced by the size of the virus population that participates in the infections. While large population passages often result in fitness gains, repeated plaque-to-plaque transfers result in average fitness losses. Here we develop a numerical model that describes fitness evolution of viral clones subjected to serial bottleneck events. The model predicts a biphasic evolution of fitness values in that a period of exponential decrease is followed by a stationary state in which fitness values display large fluctuations around an average constant value. This biphasic evolution is in agreement with experimental results of serial plaque-to-plaque transfers carried out with foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) in cell culture. The existence of a stationary phase of fitness values has been further documented by serial plaque-to-plaque transfers of FMDV clones that had reached very low relative fitness values. The statistical properties of the stationary state depend on several parameters of the model, such as the probability of advantageous versus deleterious mutations, initial fitness, and the number of replication rounds. In particular, the size of the bottleneck is critical for determining the trend of fitness evolution.

Animals↗

Migration in variable environments: exploring life-history evolution using structured population models.

In this paper, we explore the hypothesis that environmental variability favors the evolution of migration. Using the single-locus invasion condition for a novel allele in a variable environment, we derive conditions where increased migration rates between two sites are favored. We find that while there is a strong advantage to migrants entering a resident population with no migration, there is little advantage to migrants entering a population where the residents migrate at a different rate. Instead of an optimal rate of migration, there is a range of favored migration rates. Negative spatial correlation and a population structure including more than two sites accentuate the advantage of migration. Extending this model to include the effects of developmental delay (e.g. seed dormancy or diapause) on the evolution of migration, we find that higher levels of such delay reduce the advantage to migrants.

Animals↗

Batesian mimics influence mimicry ring evolution.

Mathematical models of mimicry typically involve artificial prey species with fixed colorations or appearances; this enables a comparison of predation rates to demonstrate the level of protection a mimic might be afforded. Fruitful theoretical results have been produced using this method, but it is also useful to examine the possible evolutionary consequences of mimicry. To that end, we present individual-based evolutionary simulation models where prey colorations are free to evolve. We use the models to examine the effect of Batesian mimics on Müllerian mimics and mimicry rings. Results show that Batesian mimics can potentially incite Müllerian mimicry relationships and encourage mimicry ring convergence.

Animals↗

An overlooked riddle of life's origins: energy-dependent nucleic acid unzipping.

The imposing progress in understanding contemporary life forms on Earth and in manipulating them has not been matched by a comparable progress in understanding the origins of life. This paper argues that a crucial problem of unzipping of the double helix molecule of nucleic acid during its replication has been underrated, if not plainly overlooked, in the theories of life's origin and evolution. A model is presented of how evolution may have solved the problem in its early phase. Similar to several previous models, the model envisages the existence of a protocell, in which osmotic disbalance is being created by accumulation of synthetic products resulting in expansion and division of the protocell. Novel in the model is the presence in the protocell of a double-stranded nucleic acid, with each of its two strands being affixed by its 3'-terminus to the opposite sides of the membrane of a protocell. In the course of the protocell expansion, osmotic force is utilized to pull the two strands longitudinally in opposite directions, unzipping the helix and partitioning the strands between the two daughter protocells. The model is also being used as a background for arguments of why life need operate in cycles. Many formal models of life's origin and evolution have not taken into account the fact that logical possibility does not equal thermodynamic feasibility. A system of self-replication has to consist of both replicators and replicants.

Cell Membrane↗

Frequency-dependent selection, metrical characters and molecular evolution.

Computer models of selection acting on a quantitative character show that a combination of frequency-dependent and stabilizing selection can maintain many polymorphisms among the genes that determine the character. The models also show that the random order of mutations can give rise to selectively driven stochastic effects that are sometimes more important than random genetic drift. They suggest simple explanations for patterns of divergence between populations and species, and for apparent discrepancies between the rates of morphological and molecular evolution. They point towards a selective theory of 'molecular clocks'.

Animals↗

Antibiotic resistance and the evolution of group-beneficial traits. II: a metapopulation model.

Inspired by the evolution of antibiotic resistance in bacteria, we have developed a model that examines the evolution of "producers" (who secrete a substance that breaks down antibiotics) and non-producers. In a previous study, we found that frequency-dependent selection could favor an intermediate frequency of producers in a single, large population. Here we develop a metapopulation model that examines the evolution of producers and non-producers. Our results indicate that in a metapopulation with many groups, each of size N, the equilibrial frequency of producers decreases with group size. Even when N is high (e.g. 150 individuals/group), however, a significant frequency of producers is still predicted. We also found that the equilibrial frequency of producers increases as the minimum numbers of producers necessary to provide protection to non-producers increases. Lastly, increasing the benefit/cost ratio (b/c) for producers increases their equilibrial frequency.

Adaptation, Biological↗

Mathematical model of virus disease morbidity evolution in communities with several components.

Mathematical models previously developed for the evolution of virus disease morbidity in communities with a single component are generalized so as to be applied to the case of communities consisting of several coupled components. Epidemiological characteristics are discussed in the case of components linked by weak, strong or intermediate couplings. A detailed analysis is made of the cases when the different components are represented by; a) different geographical areas; b) different types of sources of infection; c) different age groups.

Age Factors↗

MRI based diffusion and perfusion predictive model to estimate stroke evolution.

In this study we present a novel automated strategy for predicting infarct evolution, based on MR diffusion and perfusion images acquired in the acute stage of stroke. The validity of this methodology was tested on novel patient data including data acquired from an independent stroke clinic. Regions-of-interest (ROIs) defining the initial diffusion lesion and tissue with abnormal hemodynamic function as defined by the mean transit time (MTT) abnormality were automatically extracted from DWI/PI maps. Quantitative measures of cerebral blood flow (CBF) and volume (CBV) along with ratio measures defined relative to the contralateral hemisphere (r(a)CBF and r(a)CBV) were calculated for the MTT ROIs. A parametric normal classifier algorithm incorporating these measures was used to predict infarct growth. The mean r(a)CBF and r(a)CBV values for eventually infarcted MTT tissue were 0.70 +/- 0.19 and 1.20 +/- 0.36. For recovered tissue the mean values were 0.99 +/- 0.25 and 1.87 +/- 0.71, respectively. There was a significant difference between these two regions for both measures (p < 0.003 and p < 0.001, respectively). Mean absolute measures of CBF (ml/100g/min) and CBV (ml/100g) for the total infarcted territory were 33.9 +/- 9.7 and 4.2 +/- 1.9. For recovered MTT tissue, the mean values were 41.5 +/- 7.2 and 5.3 +/- 1.2, respectively. A significant difference was also found for these regions (p < 0.009 and p < 0.036, respectively). The mean measures of sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values for modeling infarct evolution for the validation patient data were 0.72 +/- 0.05, 0.97 +/- 0.02, 0.68 +/- 0.07 and 0.97 +/- 0.02. We propose that this automated strategy may allow possible guided therapeutic intervention to stroke patients and evaluation of efficacy of novel stroke compounds in clinical drug trials.

Aged↗

Inbreeding depression and the evolution of dispersal rates: a multilocus model.

Inbreeding depression is one of the possible reasons organisms disperse. In this article, we present a two-locus model for the evolution of dispersal in the presence of inbreeding depression. The first locus codes for a modifier of the migration rate, while the second locus is a selected locus generating inbreeding depression. We express the change in frequency of the migration modifier as a function of allele frequencies and genetic associations and then use a quasi-equilibrium assumption to express genetic associations as functions of allele frequencies. Our model disentangles two effects of inbreeding depression: it gives an advantage to migrant individuals because their offspring are on average less homozygous, but it also decreases the degree of population structure, thus decreasing the strength of kin selection for dispersal. We then extend our model to include an infinite number of selected loci. When the cost of dispersal is not too high, the model predictions are confirmed by multilocus simulation results and show that inbreeding depression can have a substantial effect on the dispersal rate. For high costs of dispersal, we observe discrepancies between the model and the simulations, probably caused by associations among selected loci, which are neglected in the analysis.

Animal Migration↗

Statistical properties of molecular tree construction methods under the neutral mutation model.

The statistical properties of three molecular tree construction methods--the unweighted pair-group arithmetic average clustering (UPG), Farris, and modified Farris methods--are examined under the neutral mutation model of evolution. The methods are compared for accuracy in construction of the topology and estimation of the branch lengths, using statistics of these two aspects. The distribution of the statistic concerning topological construction is shown to be as important as its mean and variance for the comparison. Of the three methods, the UPG method constructs the tree topology with the least variation. The modified Farris method, however, gives the best performance when the two aspects are considered simultaneously. It is also shown that a topology based on two genes is much more accurate than that based on one gene. There is a tendency to accept published molecular trees, but uncritical acceptance may lead one to spurious conclusions. It should always be kept in mind that a tree is a statistical result that is affected strongly by the stochastic error of nucleotide substitution and the error intrinsic to the tree construction method itself.

Biological Evolution↗