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PubMed2003

Predictors of drinking outcomes among alcoholics.

Predicting outcomes for individual patients entering substance abuse treatment has long been a clinical goal in the addictions field. Intake data from the Addiction Severity Index and other standardized scales were collected on 248 alcohol dependent/abusing patients entering an urban hospital treatment program. The outcome measure was frequency of drinking days in the past 30 days. Baseline data were used to identify predictors of posttreatment drinking frequency at two follow-up interviews (3 and 12 months postbaseline). Stepwise multiple regressions indicated that a set of baseline predictors accounted for similar and substantial proportions of outcome variance at the two follow-ups. When psychosocial predictors were combined with an index of alcohol use severity (which included drinking frequency), the proportions of variance explained were 31% and 28% at 3 and 12 months, respectively. Two psychosocial predictors were significant at both time periods, and thus most likely to be replicated in future research: a treatment motivation index (a combination of measures of commitment to treatment success and internal motivation to seek treatment) and an index of 12-step (self-help) participation (a combination of measures of frequency of 12-step meeting attendance and perceived helpfulness of 12-step participation). While the predictability of short-term (3 month) outcomes could help clinicians tailor treatment strategies to maximize patient motivation and reduce drinking behavior, the predictability of longer term (12 month) outcomes could help counselors plan aftercare programs, encourage self-help participation, and promote recovery-oriented activities to sustain initial treatment-induced gains.

Adult↗

PubMed2004

Determination of HER-2/neu overexpression and clinical predictors of survival in a cohort of 347 patients with primary malignant brain tumors.

INTRODUCTION: HER-2/neu overexpression has been associated with poor prognosis in a variety of malignancies. The extent and relevance of HER-2/neu overexpression in human central nervous system (CNS) malignancies is unclear. We retrospectively analyzed a large cohort of patients with primary malignant brain tumors to evaluate the role of HER-2/neu overexpression, clinical characteristics at presentation, and other predisposing factors as predictors of survival. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Records of 347 adult patients (193 males, 154 females) diagnosed and followed between 1986 and 2001 with a biopsy-proven diagnosis of a primary malignant brain tumor at a tertiary care oncology center were reviewed. Archival pathologic samples were analyzed for HER-2/neu overexpression using the Hercep immunohistochemical (IHC) assay (DAKO). A score of 2+ or greater on the assay was considered positive for HER-2/neu overexpression. Mortality and its predictors were evaluated using multiple logistic regression. (This study was approved and reviewed by the Institutional Review Board Committee [IRB] of University of North Dakota School of Medicine and Health Sciences.) RESULTS: Among the 347 adult patients with a mean age of 53 years (range; 41-73 years), overall mean survival was 23 months (range; 0-151 months). It was found that 10.4% of the archival pathologic samples showed presence of HER-2/neu overexpression by IHC. The HER-2/neu overexpression predicted significantly increased mortality [p = 0.01, analysis of variance (ANOVA)]. Other clinical predictors associated with increased mortality included site of tumor (occipital and parietal lobes) (p = 0.02, ANOVA), tumor histology (glioblastoma) (p < 0.01, ANOVA), and presenting symptom (nausea/vomiting) (p < 0.01, ANOVA). Also, there was a higher incidence of associated primary malignancies (outside the CNS) in the HER-2/neu overexpression group (30% vs. 7%). CONCLUSIONS: HER-2/neu overexpression seen in 10.4% appears to predict a slight increased mortality in patients with primary malignant brain tumors, especially glioblastoma multiforme, and is associated with a high incidence of a second primary malignancy outside the CNS. Additionally, our data suggests that other clinical variables were predictive of increased mortality, including tumor location (occipital), histology (glioblastoma), and presenting symptoms (nausea/vomiting). The large, heterogeneous sample employed in our study allows more definitive conclusions to be made with regard to the usefulness of HER-2/neu and other clinical predictors of survival in patients with primary brain tumors.

Adult↗

PubMed2005

Patterns and predictors of inpatient falls and fall-related injuries in a large academic hospital.

OBJECTIVES: Most research on hospital falls has focused on predictors of falling, whereas less is known about predictors of serious fall-related injury. Our objectives were to characterize inpatients who fall and to determine predictors of serious fall-related injury. METHODS: We performed a retrospective observational study of 1,082 patients who fell (1,235 falls) during January 2001 to June 2002 at an urban academic hospital. Multivariate analysis of potential risk factors for serious fall-related injury (vs no or minor injury) included in the hospital's adverse event reporting database was conducted with logistic regression to calculate adjusted odds ratios (aORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI95) RESULTS: The median age of patients who fell was 62 years (interquartile range, 49-77 years), 50% were women, and 20% were confused. The hospital fall rate was 3.1 falls per 1,000 patient-days, which varied by service from 0.86 (women and infants) to 6.36 (oncology). Some (6.1%) of the falls resulted in serious injury, ranging by service from 3.1% (women and infants) to 10.9% (psychiatry). The most common serious fall-related injuries were bleeding or laceration (53.6%), fracture or dislocation (15.9%), and hematoma or contusion (13%). Patients 75 years or older (aOR, 3.2; CI95, 1.3-8.1) and those on the geriatric psychiatry floor (aOR, 2.8; CI95, 1.3-6.0) were more likely to sustain serious fall-related injuries. CONCLUSIONS: There is considerable variation in fall rates and fall-related injury percentages by service. More detailed studies should be conducted by floor or service to identify predictors of serious fall-related injury so that targeted interventions can be developed to reduce them.

Accidental Falls↗

PubMed2006

Complementary and alternative medicine use among Asian-American subgroups: prevalence, predictors, and lack of relationship to acculturation and access to conventional health care.

OBJECTIVES: Acculturation and access to conventional health care have been found to be predictors of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) use in the general population. We hypothesized that these factors would be predictors of CAM use in Asian-American subgroups. Because of differences in health and cultural beliefs, we also hypothesized that patterns and predictors of CAM use would vary among Asian-American subgroups. METHODS: Cross-sectional survey of a sample of 9187 adults representative of the California population. RESULTS: Nearly three quarters of Asian-Americans used at least one type of CAM in the past 12 months, which was significantly higher than the national prevalence rate. Chinese Americans had the highest prevalence of any CAM use, whereas South Asians had the lowest prevalence (86% vs. 67%, respectively). Acculturation and access to conventional medical care was unrelated to any CAM use for most Asian-American subgroups. Spirituality was the strongest predictor of any CAM use for most Asian-American subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: CAM use varies across Asian-American subgroups. Acculturation and access to conventional medical care is unrelated to any CAM use for most Asian-American subgroups.

Acculturation↗

PubMed2005

Predictors of 1-year mortality in patients discharged from hospital following acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

INTRODUCTION: acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD) is a major cause of hospital admission, and predicts subsequent medium-term mortality. We aimed to examine mortality predictors in patients discharged from hospital after AECOPD. METHODS: we obtained baseline demographic and clinical data from 100 patients (mean age (range)=73 (60-98) years; 48 males) admitted with AECOPD. All completed the following validated questionnaires: a quality of life questionnaire (Breathing Problems Questionnaire; BPQ); a screening questionnaire for depression (Brief Assessment Schedule Depression Cards; BASDEC); a disability questionnaire (Manchester Respiratory Activities of Daily Living questionnaire; MRADL). Following discharge all were prospectively followed and survival/mortality at 12 months confirmed from hospital notes and by contacting general practitioners. RESULTS: the prevalence of depression at recruitment was 56%. One-year mortality in the whole group was 36%. Odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) for mortality predictors (univariate logistic regression analysis) were: use of long-term oxygen therapy=2.72 (1.06-6.97); subsequent readmission=2.57 (1.08-6.12); MRADL score=0.87 (0.80-0.94) (disability predicting death); BASDEC score=1.13 (1.02-1.26) (depression predicting death); BPQ score=1.08 (1.04-1.12) (low quality of life predicting death); length of original hospital stay=1.03 (1.00-1.07). On multivariate logistic regression analysis the only mortality predictor was BPQ with an odds ratio (95% confidence limits) of 1.13 (1.04-1.22). In terms of mortality prediction for individuals, a threshold MRADL score of <12 gave a sensitivity of 86%, specificity of 55%, positive predictive value of 88% and negative predictive value of 52%, with similar predictive values using BPQ as an independent variable. CONCLUSIONS: 1-year mortality after AECOPD admission is high. The presence of depressive illness (which is extremely common), and levels of both disability and impairment of quality of life are univariate predictors of 1-year mortality in this patient group. This model may be useful in predicting prognosis for individuals and thus in guiding treatment decisions.

Aged↗

PubMed1994

Predictors of infant birth weight in gestational diabetes.

The objectives were to characterize and determine the predictors of birth weight among women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), and to establish whether these predictors vary by prepregnancy body mass index (BMI). A cohort of 353 women with GDM was examined by using data from clinic charts and the McGill Obstetrical and Neonatal Database. Dietary treatment decreased the rate of weight gain (from 0.35 to 0.16 kg/wk, P < 0.0001) and fasting serum glucose (from 4.8 to 4.2 mmol/L, P < 0.001). Positive predictors of infant birth weight among the underweight and normal-weight women (BMI < or = 26) included prepregnancy BMI, height, parity, prediagnostic rate of weight gain, postprandial serum glucose, and gestational duration. Among the overweight and obese women (BMI > 26) the only variables that predicted increased birth weight were prediagnostic rate of weight gain, and fasting or postprandial serum glucose. Hence, prepregnancy body mass index exerts a strong effect on predictors of infant birth weight in GDM, indicating the need to consider prepregnancy weight in the treatment approach.

Adult↗

PubMed2000

Paternal body fat is a longitudinal predictor of changes in body fat in premenarcheal girls.

BACKGROUND: Longitudinal studies in infants and children suggest that low total energy expenditure (EE) (TEE) and parental body composition are important predisposing factors to obesity. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to examine potential predictors of changes in total or percentage body fat over 2.7 y in premenarcheal girls. DESIGN: We studied 47 normal-weight prepubertal girls aged 4.8-8.9 y in 3 visits. The girls' age, total and percentage body fat at baseline, sleep EE (SEE) and activity-related EE (AEE) adjusted for fat-free mass (FFM) and total body fat, mothers' and fathers' total and percentage body fat and FFM at baseline, and time to follow-up visits were measured; 24-h EE and SEE were measured by whole-room indirect calorimetry. AEE was calculated as TEE minus (SEE + 0.1 TEE), with the assumption that the thermic effect of food was 10% of TEE. The girls' body composition was measured at each visit and that of the parents was measured at the time of the girls' enrollment by using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. RESULTS: From baseline to the first (mean: 1.6 y) and the second (mean: 2.7 y) follow-up visits, the girls' mean (+/-SD) change in total fat adjusted for FFM was 1.2 +/- 2.7 and 3.3 +/- 4.0 kg, respectively, and the mean change in percentage body fat was -2.0 +/- 5.0% and -0. 8 +/- 5.9%, respectively. Fathers' total and percentage body fat were the main predictors of changes in the girls' total and percentage body fat. For the first follow-up visit, SEE, girls' age at baseline, and AEE were significant predictors of percentage body fat. CONCLUSION: Fathers' total and percentage body fat were predictors of changes in body fat of premenarcheal girls during a 2. 7-y period.

Absorptiometry, Photon↗

PubMed2001

HIV and other predictors of serum beta-carotene and retinol in pregnancy: a cross-sectional study in Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: Vitamin A status during pregnancy is important to maternal and infant health. OBJECTIVE: Our goal was to identify predictors of serum beta-carotene and retinol. DESIGN: This was a cross-sectional study of 1669 women (22-35 wk of gestation) in Harare, Zimbabwe, who were receiving prenatal care. The statistical effects of age, season, gestational age, gravidity, HIV-1 infection, malaria parasitemia, and serum alpha1-antichymotrypsin (ACT) on serum beta-carotene (log10 transformed) and retinol were estimated by using multiple linear regression analyses. RESULTS: HIV infection was found in 31.5% of the women; 0.4% had malaria. Serum beta-carotene concentrations (geometric x: 0.19 micromol/L) were lower in HIV-infected women than in uninfected women (10beta = 0.78; 95% CI: 0.72, 0.84) and increased with age (10beta = 1.05; 1.02, 1.07) in gravida 1 but not in gravida > or =2 (P for interaction = 0.00002). Serum retinol (x: 0.92 micromol/L) increased with age (beta = 0.004; 0.0001, 0.008) in uninfected women but not in HIV-infected women (P for interaction = 0.02) and was 0.05-micromol/L (0.02, 0.09) lower in HIV-infected women than in uninfected women at 24 y of age. Furthermore, gestational age, season, use of prenatal supplements, and malaria were predictors of serum beta-carotene. Serum retinol was lower in women carrying male (beta = -0.04; -0.08, -0.00005) and multiple (beta = -0.21; -0.35, -0.08) fetuses. Serum ACT concentrations of 0.3-0.4, 0.4-0.5, and >0.5 g/L were associated with 3%, 11%, and 44% lower serum beta-carotene and 0.04-, 0.15-, and 0.41-micromol/L lower serum retinol. Serum ACT (g/L) was higher in women with malaria than in those without (beta = 0.10; 0.03, 0.16) and in gravida 1 than in gravida > or =2 (beta = 0.012; 0.003, 0.021), but was not higher in HIV-infected women than in uninfected women (beta = 0.001; -0.008, 0.011). CONCLUSIONS: HIV infection, malaria, gravidity, and gestational age were predictors of serum beta-carotene and retinol. Serum ACT was an important predictor of both and was associated with gravidity and gestational age.

Acute-Phase Reaction↗

PubMed2004

Psychosocial predictors of energy underreporting in a large doubly labeled water study.

BACKGROUND: Underreporting of energy intake is associated with self-reported diet measures and appears to be selective according to personal characteristics. Doubly labeled water is an unbiased reference biomarker for energy intake that may be used to assess underreporting. OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to determine which factors are associated with underreporting of energy intake on food-frequency questionnaires (FFQs) and 24-h dietary recalls (24HRs). DESIGN: The study participants were 484 men and women aged 40-69 y who resided in Montgomery County, MD. Using the doubly labeled water method to measure total energy expenditure, we considered numerous psychosocial, lifestyle, and sociodemographic factors in multiple logistic regression models for prediction of the probability of underreporting on the FFQ and 24HR. RESULTS: In the FFQ models, fear of negative evaluation, weight-loss history, and percentage of energy from fat were the best predictors of underreporting in women (R(2) = 0.09); body mass index, comparison of activity level with that of others of the same sex and age, and eating frequency were the best predictors in men (R(2) = 0.10). In the 24HR models, social desirability, fear of negative evaluation, body mass index, percentage of energy from fat, usual activity, and variability in number of meals per day were the best predictors of underreporting in women (R(2) = 0.22); social desirability, dietary restraint, body mass index, eating frequency, dieting history, and education were the best predictors in men (R(2) = 0.25). CONCLUSION: Although the final models were significantly related to underreporting on both the FFQ and the 24HR, the amount of variation explained by these models was relatively low, especially for the FFQ.

Adult↗

PubMed2005

Total homocysteine and its predictors in Dutch children.

BACKGROUND: Vitamin status, methylenentetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) genotype, age, sex, and lifestyle factors are all predictors of total homocysteine (tHcy) concentrations in adults. Limited data are available about the influence of these factors on tHcy in children. OBJECTIVE: The objective was to describe tHcy and its predictors in Dutch children. DESIGN: A sample of 234 white children aged 0-19 y was analyzed cross-sectionally. RESULTS: The geometric mean tHcy concentrations were 5.1 (95% CI: 4.6, 5.6), 4.6 (4.2, 5.1), 6.2 (5.6, 6.9), 7.3 (6.7, 8.0), and 8.7 (7.9, 9.6) micromol/L in the 0-1, 2-5, 6-10, 11-14, and 15-19 y groups, respectively. Plasma folate and vitamin B-12 concentrations decreased markedly with age. The inverse association between tHcy and plasma folate seen at all ages was stronger than that between tHcy and plasma vitamin B-12. A negative association of plasma folate with tHcy was confined to folate concentrations <20 nmol/L. Homozygosity for the MTHFR 677C-->T polymorphism was identified in 8.2% of the children. The homocysteine concentration did not differ significantly between the MTHFR genotypes. CONCLUSIONS: This study provided age-specific data regarding tHcy concentrations and their predictors in the whole range of childhood. The tHcy concentration increased as a function of age in both sexes. Plasma folate was a concentration-dependent predictor of tHcy. The MTHFR 677C-->T polymorphism played a minor role in determining tHcy concentrations in children.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2005

Predictors of weight loss and reversal of comorbidities in malabsorptive bariatric surgery.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular and metabolic comorbidities are dramatically increased in severe obesity, a condition highly resistant to nonsurgical therapy. OBJECTIVE: The objective was to identify predictors of weight loss and reversal of comorbidity in obese patients undergoing malabsorptive bariatric surgery. DESIGN: Morbidly obese men and women (n = 107) were studied before and 2 y after biliopancreatic diversion (BPD). Body composition, serum lipid profile, oral glucose tolerance, and blood pressure were measured. Insulin sensitivity was determined by use of a euglycemic clamp. The length of the small intestine was measured during surgery. RESULTS: Intestinal length was 671 +/- 99 cm, and the residual absorbing intestine after BPD ranged from 54% to 24% of initial length. Patients lost an average of 36% of their initial weight, with approximately 50% of them reaching a body mass index (in kg/m(2)) < 30. Serum cholesterol decreased (from 4.58 +/- 1.11 to 3.34 +/- 0.73 mmol/L; P < 0.0001), as did serum triacylglycerols (from 1.52 +/- 0.59 to 0.88 +/- 0.35 mmol/L; P < 0.0001), whereas insulin sensitivity rose 150% (from 26 +/- 4 to 64 +/- 11 micromol . min(-1) . kg fat-free mass(-1); P < 0.0001). Diabetes (in 23% of patients before surgery) and hypertension (in 83%) were reduced (by 88% and 96%, respectively) after surgery. In a multivariate model (including sex, age, intestinal length, presence of diabetes, insulin sensitivity, and initial fat mass), age and diabetes were independent, negative predictors of weight loss, whereas initial fat mass was a strong positive predictor (r(2) = 0.51). CONCLUSIONS: Two years after BPD in morbidly obese patients, comorbidities are largely corrected and insulin resistance is fully reversed despite persistent obesity. Initial fat mass, but not residual intestinal length, is the strongest predictor of weight loss after BPD.

Adipose Tissue↗

PubMed2004

Construction of robust prognostic predictors by using projective adaptive resonance theory as a gene filtering method.

MOTIVATION: For establishing prognostic predictors of various diseases using DNA microarray analysis technology, it is desired to find selectively significant genes for constructing the prognostic model and it is also necessary to eliminate non-specific genes or genes with error before constructing the model. RESULTS: We applied projective adaptive resonance theory (PART) to gene screening for DNA microarray data. Genes selected by PART were subjected to our FNN-SWEEP modeling method for the construction of a cancer class prediction model. The model performance was evaluated through comparison with a conventional screening signal-to-noise (S2N) method or nearest shrunken centroids (NSC) method. The FNN-SWEEP predictor with PART screening could discriminate classes of acute leukemia in blinded data with 97.1% accuracy and classes of lung cancer with 90.0% accuracy, while the predictor with S2N was only 85.3 and 70.0% or the predictor with NSC was 88.2 and 90.0%, respectively. The results have proven that PART was superior for gene screening. AVAILABILITY: The software is available upon request from the authors. CONTACT: honda@nubio.nagoya-u.ac.jp

Algorithms↗

PubMed2000

Parental Involvement in Deaf Children's Education Programs as a Predictor of Child's Language, Early Reading, and Social-Emotional Development.

This study examined the impact of school-based, teacher-rated parental involvement on four child outcomes: language development, early reading skills, and positive and negative measures of social-emotional development. The 28 children were assessed for outcomes between 9 to 53 months post-graduation from a birth-to-3 early intervention (EI) program for children with hearing loss. Other factors included in the study were child's hearing loss, mother's education level, mother's current communication skills with her child, and maternal use of additional services beyond those offered by the early intervention program or the child's school program. Parental involvement in children's school-based education program is a significant positive predictor to early reading skills but shares considerable variance with maternal communication skill for this outcome. In this study, maternal communication skills and the child's hearing loss were the strongest predictors for language development. Maternal use of additional services was the strongest predictor to poorer social-emotional adjustment. The study's findings indicate that although parental involvement in their deaf child's school-based education program can positively contribute to academic performance, parental communication skill is a more significant predictor for positive language and academic development. Factors associated with parental involvement, maternal communication, and use of additional services are explored and suggestions are offered to enhance parental involvement and communication skills.

Journal Article↗

PubMed2005

Predictors of mortality and morbidity in patients with chronic heart failure.

AIMS: We aimed to develop prognostic models for patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). METHODS AND RESULTS: We evaluated data from 7599 patients in the CHARM programme with CHF with and without left ventricular systolic dysfunction. Multi-variable Cox regression models were developed using baseline candidate variables to predict all-cause mortality (n=1831 deaths) and the composite of cardiovascular (CV) death and heart failure (HF) hospitalization (n=2460 patients with events). Final models included 21 predictor variables for CV death/HF hospitalization and for death. The three most powerful predictors were older age (beginning >60 years), diabetes, and lower left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) (beginning <45%). Other independent predictors that increased risk included higher NYHA class, cardiomegaly, prior HF hospitalization, male sex, lower body mass index, and lower diastolic blood pressure. The model accurately stratified actual 2-year mortality from 2.5 to 44% for the lowest to highest deciles of predicted risk. CONCLUSION: In a large contemporary CHF population, including patients with preserved and decreased left ventricular systolic function, routine clinical variables can discriminate risk regardless of EF. Diabetes was found to be a surprisingly strong independent predictor. These models can stratify risk and help define how patient characteristics relate to clinical course.

Adult↗

PubMed2006

Intravascular ultrasound predictors of angiographic restenosis after sirolimus-eluting stent implantation.

AIMS: In many countries, drug-eluting stent implantation is the dominant interventional strategy. We evaluated the clinical, angiographic, procedural, and intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) predictors of angiographic restenosis after sirolimus-eluting stent (SES) implantation. METHODS AND RESULTS: SES implantation was successfully performed in 550 patients with 670 native coronary lesions. Six-month follow-up angiography was performed in 449 patients (81.6%) with 543 lesions (81.1%). Clinical, angiographic, procedural, and IVUS predictors of restenosis were determined. Using multivariable logistic regression analysis, the only independent predictors of angiographic restenosis were post-procedural final minimum stent area by IVUS [odds ratio (OR)=0.586, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.387-0.888, P=0.012] and IVUS-measured stent length (OR=1.029, 95% CI 1.002-1.056, P=0.035). Final minimum stent area by IVUS and IVUS-measured stent length that best separated restenosis from non-restenosis were 5.5 mm2 and 40 mm, respectively. Lesions with final minimum stent area<5.5 mm2 and stent length>40 mm had the highest rate of angiographic restenosis [17.7% (11/62)], P<0.001 compared with other groups. CONCLUSION: Independent predictors of angiographic restenosis after SES implantation were post-procedural final minimum stent area by IVUS and IVUS-measured stent length. The angiographic restenosis rate was highest in lesions with stent area<5.5 mm2 and stent length>40 mm.

Coronary Angiography↗

PubMed2006

Predictors of stroke in high-risk patients after acute myocardial infarction: insights from the VALIANT Trial.

AIMS: We sought to determine risk models for predicting early and late stroke in a large cohort of high-risk post-myocardial infarction (MI) patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: We prospectively analysed data from 14 703 patients in the VALIANT trial with acute MI complicated by heart failure, left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction, or both. Patients were randomized 0.5-10 days after acute MI to valsartan, captopril, or their combination. We evaluated risk factors for early (<45 days) and late (>45 days) stroke by using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analyses with stepwise variable selection techniques applied to 92 pre-specified potential predictor variables. After randomization, 463 (3.2%) patients had fatal (n = 124) or non-fatal (n = 339) strokes, with 134 strokes occurring in the first 45 days. The strokes were classified as ischaemic (348), haemorrhagic (40), or of indeterminate cause (75). Estimated glomerular filtration rate and heart rate when in sinus rhythm were the most powerful predictors of early stroke (<45 days after MI), whereas diastolic blood pressure (DBP) >90 mmHg, prior stroke, and atrial fibrillation (AF) were the most powerful predictors of stroke overall. Ejection fraction and sex were not predictive of stroke in this cohort. CONCLUSION: Among high-risk patients presenting with MI but without initial neurological symptoms, the risk of stroke 6 weeks thereafter is 0.94% (95% CI 0.78-1.09). Of the most powerful baseline predictors of stroke, DBP and AF are amenable to therapeutic interventions and thus merit special attention in these patients.

Aged↗

PubMed2007

A multifactorial fall prevention programme in the community-dwelling aged: predictors of adherence.

BACKGROUND: Overall adherence rates have usually been reported in fall prevention studies, but predictors of adherence have rarely been described. The aim of this study was to determine the adherence rates and the predictors of adherence in four key activities of a multifactorial fall prevention trial. METHODS: This study is part of a multifactorial fall prevention programme implemented among the 65-year-old or older community-dwelling aged who had fallen at least once during the previous 12 months. Subjects (n = 591) were randomly assigned to an intensive prevention programme or to a counselling group. Four key activities of prevention programme included physical exercise in small groups, psychosocial group activities, lectures and home exercises. Associations between adherence rates and potential predictors were analysed using cumulative logistic regression. RESULTS: The mean adherence rate was 58% in the physical exercise groups, 25% in the psychosocial groups and 33% in lectures. Subjects performed home-exercises on average 11 times per month. In multivariate analyses, infrequent feelings of loneliness, low self-perceived probability of falling at home and good physical functional abilities were significant predictors of active physical exercise group adherence. Good physical and cognitive functional abilities predicted active psychosocial group adherence. Female gender and good physical and cognitive functional abilities predicted more active lecture adherence. CONCLUSION: Persons with the poorest physical, cognitive and psychological functional abilities representing the part of the population at highest risk of falling do not seem reachable in multifactorial risk-based intervention.

Accidental Falls↗

PubMed2002

Mammography uptake predictors in older women.

BACKGROUND: In women aged under 65 years, socio-economic factors and general health behaviours are important predictors of mammography uptake. Little is known about whether these factors are important in older women. OBJECTIVE: To examine a broad range of mammography uptake predictors in women aged 65 and older registered with a London (UK) practice. METHODS: A survey of all female patients aged 65 and over (n = 613) in a south London practice included questions on mammography and cervical screening, general health and functional ability, socio-economic factors, mental health, health behaviours, and attitudes to health. Associations between mammography uptake and other factors were examined using logistic regression. RESULTS: The response rate was 70% (432/613). Increased age was strongly associated with decreased mammography uptake. Additionally, socio-economic factors and general health behaviours (previous cervical smear, drinking alcohol and being a non-smoker) were independently predictive of mammography uptake. Measures of physical and mental health and health attitudes were not independent predictors. Restricting analyses to the oldest women, outside the national screening programme, gave very similar results. CONCLUSIONS: In this sample of older women, socio-economic factors and general health behaviours were more predictive of mammography uptake than measures of physical and mental health or attitudes to health. Knowledge of these predictors is of increasing importance as the screening programme in the UK is extended up to age 70.

Age Factors↗