SEARCH · PubMed Health

Results for “Probability”

Explore indexed PubMed citations for clinical trials, systematic reviews and public health research. Read source abstracts and follow each citation to its original PubMed record.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 613 records · Page 34Linked to original sources

PubMed1992

Memory accessibility and probability judgments: an experimental evaluation of the availability heuristic.

Consistent with Tversky and Kahneman's (1973, 1974) availability heuristic hypothesis, the current study found a negative correlation between recall latency for past events and the perceived future probability of similar events. Furthermore, when the relative accessibility of memories of positive and negative events was experimentally manipulated using the Velten mood-induction procedure, the perceived future probabilities of similar events also changed in a manner consistent with the availability heuristic account. Reductions in recall latencies resulting from the mood manipulations were, as predicted, related to increases in perceived probability, and vice versa. Partial correlations indicated that this association between the observed patterns of changes in recall latencies and probability judgments could not be accounted for by the existence of independent associations between each of these effects and the magnitude of mood change.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1984

Global and local control of choice behavior by cyclically varying outcome probabilities.

Subjects asked to simulate decision makers in a competitive bidding situation chose repeatedly between two alternatives; reward probability varied according to a sine wave function of time for one alternative but was held constant over time for the other. Learning functions for choice probability exhibited the wavelike pattern predicted by a statistical learning model. However, on later transfer trials, when success probability was independent of subjects' choices, their choice behavior continued to follow a wavelike function rather than approaching the constant .5 level predicted by the learning model. A possible basis in memory for the transfer performance was revealed in subjects' sketches of the remembered pattern of variation in reward probabilities. It is concluded that choice performance is controlled by a mixture of local feedback, in a manner described by the learning model, and more global information encoded in an abstract memory representation, with the balance of the influence shifting toward the latter when local feedback becomes uninformative.

Adult↗

PubMed1989

Conditional stimulus probability and activity of hippocampal, cingulate cortical, and limbic thalamic neurons during avoidance conditioning in rabbits.

Past studies of the neuronal correlates of avoidance conditioning in rabbits have led to a model of information flow among structures of the limbic system. A hypothesis of the model is that unexpected stimuli activate certain hippocampal and cingulate cortical neurons. This activity in turn suppresses or "limits" the firing of limbic thalamic neurons. This hypothesis is tested in relation to stimuli classified as unexpected or expected on the basis of their incidence or "probability." Multi-unit and field potential responses in the anterior and posterior cingulate cortices (AC and PC), the dentate gyrus (DG), and the anterior ventral (AV) and medial dorsal (MD) thalamic nuclei were recorded during the acquisition and performance of a locomotor conditioned response (CR). The CR, stepping in an activity wheel in response to a 0.5-s tone (CS+), prevented the occurrence of a shock US scheduled 5 s after CS+ onset. The rabbits also learned to ignore a different tone (CS-), not predictive of the US. Training was given daily (120 trials, 60 with each CS in an irregular sequence) until behavioral discrimination reached criterion. After criterion, asymmetric probability (AP) sessions were given, in which the CS+/CS- proportions were .2/.8 or .8/.2. The AP sessions were the same as conditioning sessions except for the probability manipulation. A significant discriminative response, i.e., a greater neuronal discharge to the CS+ than to the CS-, developed in all regions during behavioral acquisition. The unit response in the AP sessions was enhanced in all areas by rare presentation of the CS-, compared with the equal and frequent CS- conditions. Rare presentation of the CS+ enhanced the unit response in the cortical areas (AC, PC, and DG), but it suppressed the firing of limbic thalamic (AV and MD) neurons. These results were supportive of the model. Rare CS+ presentations did not alter AV and PC neuronal activity in rabbits with subicular lesions, a result suggesting that an intact hippocampus is essential for normal neuronal responses to stimulus probability in the cingulate cortex and limbic thalamus.

Animals↗

PubMed2004

Knowledge about the probability of change affects change detection performance.

The visual system continually selects some information for processing while bypassing the processing of other information, and as a consequence, participants often fail to notice large changes to visual stimuli. In the present studies, the authors investigated whether knowledge about the probability of particular changes occurring over time increased the likelihood that changes that were likely to occur in the real world (probable changes) would be detected. The results of two experiments showed that participants were more likely to detect probable changes. This occurred whether or not they were processing the scene in a meaningful manner or actively searching the scene for changes. Furthermore, participants were unable to accurately predict change detection performance for probable and improbable changes.

Cognition↗

PubMed2004

Subjective probability intervals: how to reduce overconfidence by interval evaluation.

Format dependence implies that assessment of the same subjective probability distribution produces different conclusions about over- or underconfidence depending on the assessment format. In 2 experiments, the authors demonstrate that the overconfidence bias that occurs when participants produce intervals for an uncertain quantity is almost abolished when they evaluate the probability that the same intervals include the quantity. The authors successfully apply a method for adaptive adjustment of probability intervals as a debiasing tool and discuss a tentative explanation in terms of a naive sampling model. According to this view, people report their experiences accurately, but they are naive in that they treat both sample proportion and sample dispersion as unbiased estimators, yielding small bias in probability evaluation but strong bias in interval production.

Choice Behavior↗

PubMed2005

The cognitive substrate of subjective probability.

The prominent cognitive theories of probability judgment were primarily developed to explain cognitive biases rather than to account for the cognitive processes in probability judgment. In this article the authors compare 3 major theories of the processes and representations in probability judgment: the representativeness heuristic, implemented as prototype similarity, relative likelihood, or evidential support accumulation (ESAM; D. J. Koehler, C. M. White, & R. Grondin, 2003); cue-based relative frequency; and exemplar memory, implemented by probabilities from exemplars (PROBEX; P. Juslin & M. Persson, 2002). Three experiments with different task structures consistently demonstrate that exemplar memory is the best account of the data whereas the results are inconsistent with extant formulations of the representativeness heuristic and cue-based relative frequency.

Adult↗

PubMed1994

Purging inbreeding depression and the probability of extinction: full-sib mating.

Inbreeding depression has been a topic of interest in recent years from a number of perspectives, particularly in the captive breeding of endangered species. Generally, the goal of captive breeding is to avoid the detrimental effects of inbreeding depression and to retain genetic variation for future adaptation. However, an important component of another suggested approach to captive breeding is to purge rapidly the population of its genetic load so that its long-term fitness is not compromised. I have examined the effectiveness of purging the genetic load by documenting both the reduction in inbreeding depression and the increase of the probability of extinction when there is continuous full-sib mating. When the genetic load is the result of lethals, the inbreeding depression is quickly purged without a high probability of extinction, except when the total genetic load is high. On the other hand, if the load is due to detrimentals of relatively small effect, the genetic load becomes fixed, the mean fitness is reduced, and the probability of extinction may be greatly increased. In other words, the success of such a programme to purge genetic load without an increase in the probability of extinction is highly dependent upon the genetic basis of inbreeding depression, information that is not readily available for most species.

Adaptation, Physiological↗

PubMed1979

Changes in the probability of stuttering following a stutter: a test of some recent models.

To test the models of stuttering proposed by Still and Sherrard (1976), six stutterers (two adults and four children between 12 and 14 years old) read 33 or more passages of prose of approximately 200 words, in sessions of 16 or 17 passages. Predictions tested concerned changes in stuttering probability as words elapse following the last stutter. Such changes may be confounded with sequential dependencies among word classes, together with correlations between word classes and stuttering. To allow for this, a multiple regression was carried out on six independent variables--initial phoneme, grammatical class, length of word, position in sentence, session, and familiarity of passage. From this analysis, predicted changes in stuttering probability were generated, and compared with observed probabilities. There was a significant decrease in the difference between observed and expected probabilities over the first 30 words following a stutter. Also, two subjects (the adults) showed an initial increase in rate of stuttering. These results support a combination of the anxiety and feedback models of Still and Sherrard.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2001

Determining the probability of future smoking among adolescents.

AIMS: To determine whether the probability of future current established smoking among adolescents is related to both previous smoking experience and cognitions regarding future smoking. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: The analyses used two principal datasets: (1) a US longitudinal sample of 7960 adolescents 12-18 years old in 1989 reinterviewed at 15-22 years in 1993, (2) a California longitudinal sample of 3376 adolescents 12-17 years old in 1993 reinterviewed at 15-20 years in 1996. MEASURES: Previous smoking experience was categorized as never smoked, puffed, non-recent or recent experimenting, and non-recent or current established smoking (> or = 100 cigarettes in life-time). Smoking intentions and efficacy expectations were used to classify adolescents as having low- or high-risk cognitions. FINDINGS: High-risk cognitions (HRCs) increased the probability of future current established smoking (FCES) within each level of previous smoking experience over low-risk cognitions (LRCs); the probability of FCES for those with LRCs was about the same as those in the previous experience group with HRCs. In the US sample, the 4-year probability of FCES ranged from 5.6% for committed never smokers (with LRCs) to 83.0% for current established smokers with HRCs. Development of HRCs among middle-school never smokers occurred rapidly through age 14 years. However, current established smoking did not increase until age 14 years and stabilized by age 19 years. Where sample size was sufficient, these findings were validated in the California sample. CONCLUSIONS: Effective prevention programs should aim to convert HRCs to LRCs regardless of past behavior, particularly among middle-school never smokers and high-school experimenters.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2001

Miniaturized tests for computer-assisted identification of motile Aeromonas species with an improved probability matrix.

AIMS: To develop miniaturized tests for the phenotypic identification of motile Aeromonas species using an improved probability matrix. METHODS AND RESULTS: Conventional tests were miniaturized for use in 96-well plates, and their performance assessed using 60 aeromonads comprising type and reference strains as well as clinical, fish and water isolates. A revised probability matrix for Aeromonas hybridization groups 1-14, including A. allosaccharophila, A. bestiarum, A. encheleia and A. popoffii, was developed. Using 26 tests, all the reference strains were correctly identified with the revised probability matrix, and 80% of the isolates were correctly identified at a Willcox probability level of 95%. CONCLUSION: The compact test format, coupled with a robust identification matrix, provides a convenient basis for identifying motile aeromonads. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: The identification system for identifying aeromonads will be of use to medical and veterinary laboratories undertaking disease diagnosis.

Aeromonas↗

PubMed2001

Estimating the probability of identity among genotypes in natural populations: cautions and guidelines.

Individual identification using DNA fingerprinting methods is emerging as a critical tool in conservation genetics and molecular ecology. Statistical methods that estimate the probability of sampling identical genotypes using theoretical equations generally assume random associations between alleles within and among loci. These calculations are probably inaccurate for many animal and plant populations due to population substructure. We evaluated the accuracy of a probability of identity (P(ID)) estimation by comparing the observed and expected P(ID), using large nuclear DNA microsatellite data sets from three endangered species: the grey wolf (Canis lupus), the brown bear (Ursus arctos), and the Australian northern hairy-nosed wombat (Lasiorinyus krefftii). The theoretical estimates of P(ID) were consistently lower than the observed P(ID), and can differ by as much as three orders of magnitude. To help researchers and managers avoid potential problems associated with this bias, we introduce an equation for P(ID) between sibs. This equation provides an estimator that can be used as a conservative upper bound for the probability of observing identical multilocus genotypes between two individuals sampled from a population. We suggest computing the actual observed P(ID) when possible and give general guidelines for the number of codominant and dominant marker loci required to achieve a reasonably low P(ID) (e.g. 0.01-0.0001).

Animals↗

PubMed2003

Could our pretest probabilities become evidence based? A prospective survey of hospital practice.

OBJECTIVE: We sought to measure the proportion of patients on our clinical service who presented with clinical problems for which research evidence was available to inform estimates of pretest probability. We also aimed to discern whether any of this evidence was of sufficient quality that we would want to use it for clinical decision making. DESIGN: Prospective, consecutive case series and literature survey. SETTING: Inpatient medical service of a university-affiliated Veterans' Affairs hospital in south Texas. PATIENTS: Patients admitted during the 3 study months for diagnostic evaluation. MEASUREMENTS: Patients' active clinical problems were identified prospectively and recorded at the time of discharge, transfer, or death. We electronically searched medline and hand-searched bibliographies to find citations that reported research evidence about the frequency of underlying diseases that cause these clinical problems. We critically appraised selected citations and ranked them on a hierarchy of evidence. RESULTS: We admitted 122 patients for diagnostic evaluation, in whom we identified 45 different principal clinical problems. For 35 of the 45 problems (78%; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 66% to 90%), we found citations that qualified as disease probability evidence. Thus, 111 of our 122 patients (91%; 95% CI, 86% to 96%) had clinical problems for which evidence was available in the medical literature. CONCLUSIONS: During 3 months on our hospital medicine service, almost all of the patients admitted for diagnostic evaluation had clinical problems for which evidence is available to guide our estimates of pretest probability. If confirmed by others, these data suggest that clinicians' pretest probabilities could become evidence based.

Decision Support Techniques↗

PubMed1997

Effect of Chinook winds on the probability of migraine headache occurrence.

Our objective was to determine if Chinook weather conditions in the Calgary area increase the probability of headache attacks in migraine sufferers. Environment Canada meteorologic summaries for January through June 1992 were analyzed and times of Chinook wind onset identified. Chinook weather conditions were defined as calendar days when Chinook winds were present and the calendar day immediately preceding Chinook wind onset. The diaries of 13 migraine patients were analyzed, and times of headache onset classified according to the existing weather conditions. The probability of migraine headache onset was greater on days with Chinook weather (17.26%) than on non-Chinook days (14.65%) (P = 0.042). Older patients appeared more weather sensitive than younger patients. For patients over age 50, the probability of migraine occurrence on Chinook weather days was much greater than on non-Chinook days (P = 0.007). Chinook weather conditions increase the probability of migraine headache occurrence. Older migraine sufferers appear particularly vulnerable to this effect.

Adult↗

PubMed1986

How medical professionals evaluate expressions of probability.

Qualitative expressions of probability, such as "likely," have different numerical meanings to different people, which can lead to misunderstanding among physicians and between physicians and patients. In a study conducted through a nationwide interactive computer network based at Massachusetts General Hospital, we gathered information on the meaning of common expressions of probability. Three groups of medical professionals assigned percentage values to 12 expressions of the probability that a given symptom would appear in a patient with an unspecified disease. The median values assigned to these expressions by physicians, medical students, and other professionals were almost the same. Comparisons of the means for 7 of these 12 expressions with those found in an earlier study by other investigators showed that they were quantified in the same order, although they had not been assigned the same numerical values. This degree of agreement among professionals and between studies is encouraging for the future prospects of codifying the meaning of such expressions. The variation among five studies in the mean values assigned to 37 expressions in the medical literature and the variation among individual opinions show that such codification is necessary. In the meantime, the average numerical values presented here for various qualitative expressions of probability could well be used to enhance communication among medical professionals.

Humans↗

PubMed2004

Probability of viremia with HBV, HCV, HIV, and HTLV among tissue donors in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Tissue-banking organizations in the United States have introduced various review and testing procedures to reduce the risk of the transmission of viral infections from tissue grafts. We estimated the current probability of undetected viremia with hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), and human T-lymphotropic virus (HTLV) among tissue donors. METHODS: Rates of prevalence of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and antibodies against HIV (anti-HIV), HCV (anti-HCV), and HTLV (anti-HTLV) were determined among 11,391 donors to five tissue banks in the United States. The data were compared with those of first-time blood donors in order to generate estimated incidence rates among tissue donors. The probability of viremia undetected by screening at the time of tissue donation was estimated on the basis of the incidence estimates and the window periods for these infections. RESULTS: The prevalence of confirmed positive tests among tissue donors was 0.093 percent for anti-HIV, 0.229 percent for HBsAg, 1.091 percent for anti-HCV, and 0.068 percent for anti-HTLV. The incidence rates were estimated to be 30.118, 18.325, 12.380, and 5.586 per 100,000 person-years, respectively. The estimated probability of viremia at the time of donation was 1 in 55,000, 1 in 34,000, 1 in 42,000, and 1 in 128,000, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence rates of HBV, HCV, HIV, and HTLV infections are lower among tissue donors than in the general population. However, the estimated probability of undetected viremia at the time of tissue donation is higher among tissue donors than among first-time blood donors. The addition of nucleic acid-amplification testing to the screening of tissue donors should reduce the risk of these infections among recipients of donated tissues.

Adult↗

PubMed1995

DNA profile match probabilities in a subdivided population: when can subdivision be ignored?

Li and Chakravarti [Li, C.C. & Chakravarti, A. (1994) Hum. Hered. 44, 100-109] compared the probability (MO) of a random match between the two DNA profiles of a pair of individuals drawn from a random-mating population to the probability (MF) of the match between a pair of random individuals drawn from a subdivided population. The level of heterogeneity in this subdivided population is measured by the parameter F, where there is no subdivision when F = 0 and increasing values of F indicate increasing subdivisions. Li and Chakravarti concluded that it is conservative to use the match probability MO, which is derived under the assumption that the two individuals are drawn from a homogeneous random-mating population without subdivision. However, MO may not be always greater than MF, even for biologically reasonable values of F. We explore here those mathematical conditions under which MO is less than MF, and we find that MO is not conservative mainly when there is an allele with a much higher frequency than all the other alleles. When empirical data for both variable number of tandem repeat (VNTR) and short tandem repeat (STR) systems are evaluated, we find that in the majority of cases MO represents a conservative probability of a match, and so the subdivision of human populations may usually be ignored for a random match, although not, of course, for relatives. Loci for which MO is not conservative should be avoided for forensic inference.

Alleles↗

PubMed2001

A conditional probability of reconstruction measure for internal cladogram branches.

The conditional probability of reconstruction is a measure of the robustness of cladogram internodes and, unlike Bremer support and bootstrapping values, directly gauges probability. The new method compares the three putative branch lengths (the optimal and two alternatives) obtained through branch recalculation after nearest neighbor interchange and recalculation under constraint. With rooted trees, one switches the two free lineages attached at the distal end of an internal branch with the basal lineage. Probabilistic reconstruction of a branch for small data sets (e.g., morphological) is defined as having no contrary support for the two alternative branches and, when sufficient data are available (e.g., molecular studies), as meeting a selected confidence limit in chi-squared analysis. The exact probability that the internal branch is reconstructed is the same as the preselected confidence level met with chi-squared analysis; alternatively, it is a simple calculation of the length of the optimal branch divided by the sum of the lengths of all three putative branches. This new measure of robustness allows calculation of summary probabilities of subclade and tree reconstruction. The measure is conditional on a particular data set and optimization method but may also compare support from conflicting gene trees. Examples are provided by a morphological data set (the bryophyte Didymodon) and a molecular data set (primates).

Animals↗

PubMed1998

Determining carrier probabilities for breast cancer-susceptibility genes BRCA1 and BRCA2.

Breast cancer-susceptibility genes BRCA1 and BRCA2 have recently been identified on the human genome. Women who carry a mutation of one of these genes have a greatly increased chance of developing breast and ovarian cancer, and they usually develop the disease at a much younger age, compared with normal individuals. Women can be tested to see whether they are carriers. A woman who undergoes genetic counseling before testing can be told the probabilities that she is a carrier, given her family history. In this paper we develop a model for evaluating the probabilities that a woman is a carrier of a mutation of BRCA1 and BRCA2, on the basis of her family history of breast and ovarian cancer in first- and second-degree relatives. Of special importance are the relationships of the family members with cancer, the ages at onset of the diseases, and the ages of family members who do not have the diseases. This information can be elicited during genetic counseling and prior to genetic testing. The carrier probabilities are obtained from Bayes's rule, by use of family history as the evidence and by use of the mutation prevalences as the prior distribution. In addressing an individual's carrier probabilities, we incorporate uncertainty about some of the key inputs of the model, such as the age-specific incidence of diseases and the overall prevalence of mutations. There is some evidence that other, undiscovered genes may be important in explaining familial breast cancer. Users of the current version of the model should be aware of this limitation. The methodology that we describe can be extended to more than two genes, should data become available about other genes.

BRCA2 Protein↗