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Coarse-grained stochastic models for tropical convection and climate.

Prototype coarse-grained stochastic parametrizations for the interaction with unresolved features of tropical convection are developed here. These coarse-grained stochastic parametrizations involve systematically derived birth/death processes with low computational overhead that allow for direct interaction of the coarse-grained dynamical variables with the smaller-scale unresolved fluctuations. It is established here for an idealized prototype climate scenario that, in suitable regimes, these coarse-grained stochastic parametrizations can significantly impact the climatology as well as strongly increase the wave fluctuations about an idealized climatology.

Journal Article↗

Forest-climate interactions in fragmented tropical landscapes.

In the tropics, habitat fragmentation alters forest-climate interactions in diverse ways. On a local scale (less than 1 km), elevated desiccation and wind disturbance near fragment margins lead to sharply increased tree mortality, thus altering canopy-gap dynamics, plant community composition, biomass dynamics and carbon storage. Fragmented forests are also highly vulnerable to edge-related fires, especially in regions with periodic droughts or strong dry seasons. At landscape to regional scales (10-1000 km), habitat fragmentation may have complex effects on forest-climate interactions, with important consequences for atmospheric circulation, water cycling and precipitation. Positive feedbacks among deforestation, regional climate change and fire could pose a serious threat for some tropical forests, but the details of such interactions are poorly understood.

Atmosphere↗

Kilimanjaro ice core records: evidence of holocene climate change in tropical Africa.

Six ice cores from Kilimanjaro provide an approximately 11.7-thousand-year record of Holocene climate and environmental variability for eastern equatorial Africa, including three periods of abrupt climate change: approximately 8.3, approximately 5.2, and approximately 4 thousand years ago (ka). The latter is coincident with the "First Dark Age," the period of the greatest historically recorded drought in tropical Africa. Variable deposition of F- and Na+ during the African Humid Period suggests rapidly fluctuating lake levels between approximately 11.7 and 4 ka. Over the 20th century, the areal extent of Kilimanjaro's ice fields has decreased approximately 80%, and if current climatological conditions persist, the remaining ice fields are likely to disappear between 2015 and 2020.

Journal Article↗