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Effect of verbal instructions and image size on visual search strategies in basketball free throw shooting.

We assessed the effects on basketball free throw performance of two types of verbal directions with an external attentional focus. Novices (n = 16) were pre-tested on free throw performance and assigned to two groups of similar ability (n = 8 in each). Both groups received verbal instructions with an external focus on either movement dynamics (movement form) or movement effects (e.g. ball trajectory relative to basket). The participants also observed a skilled model performing the task on either a small or large screen monitor, to ascertain the effects of visual presentation mode on task performance. After observation of six videotaped trials, all participants were given a post-test. Visual search patterns were monitored during observation and cross-referenced with performance on the pre- and post-test. Group effects were noted for verbal instructions and image size on visual search strategies and free throw performance. The 'movement effects' group saw a significant improvement in outcome scores between the pre-test and post-test. These results supported evidence that this group spent more viewing time on information outside the body than the 'movement dynamics' group. Image size affected both groups equally with more fixations of shorter duration when viewing the small screen. The results support the benefits of instructions when observing a model with an external focus on movement effects, not dynamics.

Adult↗

Estimating the accident potential of an Ontario driver.

To run a "demerit point" program, one uses routinely available information about drivers to identify those who are most likely to have an accident in the near future. On the basis of a four-year record for a large sample of Ontario drivers, we have examined several tools for the identification of such drivers and investigated how they perform. Each driver is thought to have an expected number of accidents, m. In a group of drivers with common traits (such as age, gender, record of convictions and accidents) the ms have a mean E(m) and a variance VAR(m). Estimates of E(m) and VAR(m) for all combinations of traits can be obtained within the framework of a multivariate statistical model. The same estimates can then be used to judge how well a model identifies drivers who have a large m. In such a multivariate model it is important to use data about previous accidents and convictions. However, the accuracy with which the m of a driver can be estimated is not improved much by distinguishing between offence type or between accidents as being "at fault" or "not at fault". Without much loss in estimation accuracy, one may attach a weight 1 to a conviction and 2 to an accident. Model performance is described in tangible terms: how many accidents are recorded by the drivers identified by a model, what proportion of identified drivers are "false positives," how many drivers with high m remain unidentified. We conclude that by using a multivariate statistical model one can do substantially better than by using a demerit point scheme in which points are assigned to offenses on the basis of their perceived seriousness. However, even when the best model is used to identify a large group of drivers, many will be false positives.

Accidents, Traffic↗

Measurement of right ventricular volume from biplane contrast ventriculograms: validation by cast and three-dimensional echo.

We compared six models for measuring right ventricular (RV) volume from biplane ventriculograms in the 30 degrees right anterior oblique and 60 degrees left anterior oblique projections in adult and dilated RVs. We used 27 casts of normal RVs plus 37 three-dimensional (3D) echocardiographic RV reconstructions that we rotated to the oblique projections for contour extraction. Biplane volumes were computed using published formulas. RV volumes ranged from 18.9 to 322.4 ml. Both sets of volumes correlated similarly to true volume and were combined. Simpson's method with 50 slices yielded the lowest absolute error (19.5 +/- 28.9 ml); Simpson's with 20 slices yielded the lowest bias (1.3 +/- 35.7 ml). The prism and area-length models performed within this range. The Simpson's method provides the most accurate measurement of RV volume from biplane contrast ventriculograms recorded in oblique projections. Volume validation can be performed using 3D echo data.

Diastole↗

Sigma70 promoters in Escherichia coli: specific transcription in dense regions of overlapping promoter-like signals.

We present here a computational analysis showing that sigma70 house-keeping promoters are located within zones with high densities of promoter-like signals in Escherichia coli, and we introduce strategies that allow for the correct computer prediction of sigma70 promoters. Based on 599 experimentally verified promoters of E.coli K-12, we generated and evaluated more than 200 weight matrices optimizing different criteria to obtain the best recognition matrices. The alignments generating the best statistical models did not fully correspond with the canonical sigma70 model. However, matrices that correspond to such a canonical model performed better as tools for prediction. We tested the predictive capacity of these matrices on 250 bp long regions upstream of gene starts, where 90% of the known promoters occur. The computational matrix models generated an average of 38 promoter-like signals within each 250 bp region. In more than 50% of the cases, the true promoter does not have the best score within the region. We observed, in fact, that real promoters occur mostly within regions with high densities of overlapping putative promoters. We evaluated several strategies to identify promoters. The best one uses an intrinsic score of the -10 and -35 hexamers that form the promoter as well as an extrinsic score that uses the distribution of promoters from the start of the gene. We were able to identify 86% true promoters correctly, generating an average of 4.7 putative promoters per region as output, of which 3.7, on average, exist in clusters, as a series of overlapping potentially competing RNA polymerase-binding sites. As far as we know, this is the highest predictive capability reported so far. This high signal density is found mainly within regions upstream of genes, contrasting with coding regions and regions located between convergently transcribed genes. These results are consistent with experimental evidence that show the existence of multiple overlapping promoter sites that become functional under particular conditions. This density is probably the consequence of a rich number of vestiges of promoters in evolution. We suggest that transcriptional regulators as well as other functional promoters play an important role in keeping these latent signals suppressed.

Bacterial Proteins↗

Evaluating a Canadian regional air quality model using ground-based observations in north-eastern Canada and United States.

The simulated concentrations from a numerical 3-dimensional regional air quality model (MC2AQ) are compared to those of ground-based observations in north-eastern Canada and the United States. The model has oxidant chemistry for both inorganic and organic species and deposition routines driven online by a mesoscale compressible community meteorological model (MC2). A standard emission inventory of anthropogenic, natural and biogenic sources for the year 1990 for 21 atmospheric trace species was used in the simulation. The model was run for July 1999, because of the occurrence of a high ozone episode and the availability of the monitoring data for surface O3, SO2, NO, NO2 and NOx. The comparisons during the episode show that the model performs quite well for predicting concentrations and diurnal variations of the surface ozone. The predictions for other gaseous species show some discrepancies with observations, but they are consistent with the results from other models evaluated in the literature. The uncertainties in the emission inventory for these species might be the main causes of the discrepancies. Further studies are needed to improve the predictability of SO and NOx, especially as the model is developed to include particulate matter formation as a result of these gaseous precursors.

Air Pollutants↗

Comparison of MRI criteria at first presentation to predict conversion to clinically definite multiple sclerosis.

We compared MRI criteria used to predict conversion of suspected multiple sclerosis to clinically definite multiple sclerosis. Seventy-four patients with clinically isolated neurological symptoms suggestive of multiple sclerosis were studied with MRI. Logistic regression analysis was used to remove redundant information, and a diagnostic model was built after each MRI parameter was dichotomized according to maximum accuracy using receiver operating characteristic analysis. Clinically definite multiple sclerosis developed in 33 patients (prevalence 45%). The optimum cut-off point (number of lesions) was one for most MRI criteria (including gadolinium-enhancement and juxta-cortical lesions), but three for periventricular lesions, and nine for the total number of T2-lesions. Only gadolinium-enhancement and juxta-cortical lesions provided independent information. A final model which, in addition, included infratentorial and periventricular lesions, had an accuracy of 80%, and having more abnormal criteria, predicted conversion to clinically definite multiple sclerosis strongly. The model performed better than the criteria of Paty et al. (Neurology 1988; 38: 180-5) and of Fazekas et al. (Neurology 1988; 38: 1822-5). We concluded that a four-parameter dichotomized MRI model including gadolinium-enhancement, juxtacortical, infratentorial and periventricular lesions best predicts conversion to clinically definite multiple sclerosis.

False Negative Reactions↗

Predicting risk of ketosis in dairy cows using in-line measurements of beta-hydroxybutyrate: a biological model.

Automated monitoring of individual cows to determine health status is a potentially valuable management tool, especially in large dairy herds. Herein is described the rationale, structure, and functionality of a biological model to predict risk of ketosis in individual cows using in-line measurements of the ketone body beta-hydroxybutyrate (BHBA) in milk. The model also uses acceleration in milk yield, body fatness at calving, diseases in current lactation, and incidences of ketosis in earlier lactations as additional risk factors for ketosis. However, the model is designed to function merely on the basis of milk BHBA in the absence of other data. Values of milk BHBA are smoothed using a state space model before these are used in calculations in the biological part of the model. The model is designed to be updated each time a new BHBA measurement or a disease occurrence is available and then uses previous and current data. Outputs of the model are the risk of ketosis (value between 0 and 1, where 0 = no risk and 1 = clinical ketosis) and how many days until the next milk sample should be taken and analyzed for BHBA. At higher risks for ketosis, more frequent milk sampling is the recommended output. Test examples from cows for which BHBA has been measured extensively were used to show the functionality of the model. The model performed equally well when reductions in sampling frequency were applied, and it was also relatively robust to the addition of up to +/- 2 residual SD of random noise in the BHBA values. This model has the potential to provide the basis for a useful disease monitoring and management tool. However, thorough validation awaits a much larger dataset and testing of the model under a variety of on-farm situations.

3-Hydroxybutyric Acid↗

Modeling the large-scale geometry of human coronary arteries.

Two principles suffice to model the large-scale geometry of normal human coronary arterial networks. The first principle states that artery diameters are set to minimize the power required to distribute blood through the network. The second principle states that arterial tree geometries are set to globally minimize the lumen volume. Given only the coordinates of an arterial tree's source and "leaves", the model predicts the nature of the network connecting the source to the leaves. Measurements were made of the actual geometries of arterial trees from postmortem healthy human coronary arteriograms. The tree geometries predicted by the model look qualitatively similar to the actual tree geometries and have volumes that are within a few percent of those of the actual tree geometries. Human coronary arteries are therefore within a few percent of perfect global volume optimality. A possible mechanism for this near-perfect global volume optimality is suggested. Also, the model performs best under the assumption that the flow is not entirely steady and laminar.

Coronary Vessels↗

The well-being of chronic mental patients.

The concept, "quality of life" (QOL), offers a broad perspective for assessing the needs and outcomes of chronic mental patients. In this survey of Los Angeles board-and-care homes, 278 randomly selected, mentally disabled residents evaluated their QOL in structured interviews based on a general QOL model. Life areas studied included living situation, family, social relations, leisure, work, safety, finances, and health. The model performed as well among these residents as among the general population, explaining 48% to 58% of the variance in global well-being. Adding patients' subjective QOL evaluations doubled the explanatory power of a model based only on personal characteristics and objective life conditions. Global well-being was most consistently associated with personal safety, social relations, finances, leisure, and health care variables. The study identifies methodological and service issues in need of further examination.

Activities of Daily Living↗

Coastal Environmental Impacts Brought About by Alterations to Freshwater Flow in the Gulf of Mexico

/ Freshwater inflow is one of the most influential landscape processes affecting community structure and function in lagoons, estuaries, and deltas of the world; nevertheless there are few reviews of coastal impacts associated with altered freshwater inputs. A conceptual model of the possible influences of freshwater inflows on biogeochemical and trophic interactions was used to structure this review, evaluate dominant effects, and discuss tools for coastal management. Studies in the Gulf of Mexico were used to exemplify problems commonly encountered by coastal zone managers and scientists around the world. Landscape alteration, impacting the timing and volume of freshwater inflow, was found to be the most common stress on estuarine systems. Poorly planned upstream landscape alterations can impact wetland and open-water salinity patterns, nutrients, sediment fertility, bottom topography, dissolved oxygen, and concentrations of xenobiotics. These, in turn, influence productivity, structure, and behavior of coastal plant and animal populations. Common biogeochemical impacts include excessive stratification, eutrophication, sediment deprivation, hypoxia, and contamination. Common biological impacts include reduction in livable habitats, promotion of "exotic" species, and decreased diversity. New multiobjective statistical models and dynamic landscape simulations, used to conduct policy-relevant experiments and integrate a wide variety of coastal data for freshwater inflow management, assume that optimum estuarine productivity and diversity is found somewhere between the stress associated with altered freshwater flow and the subsidy associated with natural flow. These models attempt to maximize the area of spatial overlap where favorable dynamic substrates, such as salinity, coincide with favorable fixed substrates, such as bottom topography. Based upon this principle of spatial overlap, a statistical performance model demonstrates how population vitality measurements (growth, survival, and reproduction) can be used to define sediment, freshwater, and nutrient loading limits. Similarly, a spatially articulate landscape simulation model demonstrates how cumulative impacts and ecosystem processes can be predicted as a function of changes in freshwater, sediment, and nutrient inflows.KEY WORDS: Resource management; Landscape impacts; Freshwater discharge; Coastal, ecosystem models; Coastal wetlands

Journal Article↗

LungGENIE: the lung gene-expression and network imputation engine.

BACKGROUND: Few cohorts have study populations large enough to conduct molecular analysis of ex vivo lung tissue for genomic analyses. Transcriptome imputation is a non-invasive alternative with many potential applications. We present a novel transcriptome-imputation method called the Lung Gene Expression and Network Imputation Engine (LungGENIE) that uses principal components from blood gene-expression levels in a linear regression model to predict lung tissue-specific gene-expression. METHODS: We use paired blood and lung RNA sequencing data from the Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) project to train LungGENIE models. We replicate model performance in a unique dataset, where we generated RNA sequencing data from paired lung and blood samples available through the SUNY Upstate Biorepository (SUBR). We further demonstrate proof-of-concept application of LungGENIE models in an independent blood RNA sequencing data from the Genetic Epidemiology of COPD (COPDGene) study. RESULTS: We show that LungGENIE prediction accuracies have higher correlation to measured lung tissue expression compared to existing cis-expression quantitative trait loci-based methods (median Pearson's r = 0.25, IQR 0.19-0.32), with close to half of the reliably predicted transcripts being replicated in the testing dataset. Finally, we demonstrate significant correlation of differential expression results in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) from imputed lung tissue gene-expression and differential expression results experimentally determined from lung tissue. CONCLUSION: Our results demonstrate that LungGENIE provides complementary results to existing expression quantitative trait loci-based methods and outperforms direct blood to lung results across internal cross-validation, external replication, and proof-of-concept in an independent dataset. Taken together, we establish LungGENIE as a tool with many potential applications in the study of lung diseases.

Humans↗

A wavelet coefficient smoothened RLS adaptive denoising model for ECG.

This paper mainly concentrate on Noise Cancellation methodology for bio-signals. In this paper we have smoothened the Wavelet based signal coefficient and adapted to the MSE using RLS Algorithm. We have applied the Noisy ECG to After reconstruction model (ARM) and Before reconstruction model (BRM) and is implemented and tested. The proposed model combines the advantage of Wavelet Transform (co-efficient smoothening) and Adaptive Filter. This new proposed model performed better and faster. This find many application in the filed of noise elimination.

Algorithms↗

A neuro-fuzzy model for estimating electromyographical activity of trunk muscles due to manual lifting.

The main objective of this study was to develop a hybrid neuro-fuzzy system for estimating the magnitude of EMG responses of 10 trunk muscles based on two lifting task variables (trunk velocity and trunk moment) as model inputs. The input and output variables were represented using the fuzzy membership functions. The initial fuzzy rules were generated by the neural network using true EMG data. Two different laboratory-derived EMG data sets were used for model development and validation, respectively. The mean absolute error (MAE) between the actual and model-estimated normalized EMG values was calculated. Across all muscles, the average value of MAE was 8.43% (SD=2.87%) of the normalized EMG data. The larger absolute errors occurred in the left side of the trunk, which exhibited higher levels of muscular activity. Overall, the developed model was capable of estimating the normalized EMG values with average value of the mean absolute differences of 6.4%. It was hypothesized that model performance could be improved by increasing the number of inputs, including additional task variables as well as the subjects' characteristics.

Biomechanical Phenomena↗

Cost effectiveness of newer antiviral agents for herpes zoster: is the evidence spotty?

Famciclovir and valaciclovir were approved for use in the treatment of herpes zoster despite controversy over antiviral therapy in zoster due to high costs and uncertain benefits. To explore these issues, a Markov decision model was developed, and the incremental cost effectiveness of antiviral treatment for herpes zoster was estimated using these agents compared with no antiviral therapy. A third-party payer perspective was taken. Sensitivity analyses were performed, modeling differences in antiviral efficacy, postherpetic neuralgia (PHN) risk, and other illness parameters. Treatment of severely symptomatic acute zoster was found reasonable from a cost-effectiveness standpoint in base-case and worst-case scenarios. Treatment of mildly symptomatic acute zoster was more expensive but would likely be considered cost effective in scenarios where PHN risk was higher, PHN duration longer, or antiviral shortening of PHN greater. Further research comparing antiviral efficacy in herpes zoster is needed.

2-Aminopurine↗

Breast MR imaging: interpretation model.

PURPOSE: To develop an interpretation model based on architectural features of suspicious breast findings on magnetic resonance (MR) images. MATERIALS AND METHODS: One hundred ninety-two patients with mammographically visible or palpable findings underwent T1- and fat-saturated T2-weighted spin-echo and contrast agent-enhanced fat-saturated gradient-echo MR imaging. Patients underwent subsequent excisional biopsy for histopathologic confirmation. An interpretation model was constructed by using 98 cases and was tested prospectively and expanded by using 94 different cases. Sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and receiver operating characteristic curves were computed for all models. RESULTS: Individual features with high predictive values were MR visibility, enhancement degree and pattern, focal mass border characteristics, and focal mass internal septations. Feature combinations with high negative predictive values for malignancy were absence of an MR-visible abnormality, focal masses with smooth borders, lobulated or irregular masses with nonenhancing internal septations, and focal masses with no (or minimal) enhancement. The validated- and revised-model performance characteristics were, respectively, as follows: sensitivity, 100% and 96%; specificity, 69% and 79%; positive predictive value, 75% and 76%; negative predictive value, 100% and 97%; and overall accuracy, 83% and 86%. CONCLUSION: An interpretation model that incorporates breast MR architectural features can achieve high sensitivity and improve specificity for diagnosing breast cancer.

Adult↗

Estimating multiple temporal mechanisms in human vision.

When studying human ability to perceive temporal changes in luminance it is customary to estimate either temporal impulse response shapes or temporal modulation transfer functions, the representation of the impulse response in the frequency domain. The advantages and limitations of previous methods are summarized. We then describe an approach based on use of an impulse response basis set that resolves some of those limitations. We next present psychophysical results for spatiotemporal signal detection in spatiotemporal noise, together with an economical model of performance. The model is based on accepted notions of psychophysical detection mechanisms and the filter basis set described in the first part of the paper. The best-fitting model requires only eight parameters, as opposed to the 198 parameters required to separately fit each psychometric function, and captures both qualitative and quantitative properties of the psychophysical data. Finally, the best-fitting model indicates that only two temporal filters are necessary to describe the performance of each of three subjects under the specific stimulus conditions employed here.

Humans↗

Multiple modes of inner hair cell stimulation.

Most current theories of cochlear mechanics assume that the pattern of cochlear partition vibration is simple, similar to that of a bending beam. Recent evidence suggests, however, that the vibration of the organ of Corti can be complex and that multiple vibrational modes may play an important role in cochlear transduction. Inner hair cell (IHC) and auditory nerve responses to pure tones can exhibit large phase shifts and complex response waveforms with increasing stimulus level. In contrast, the comparable basilar membrane (BM) responses are much less complex, exhibiting only small phase shifts and relatively sinusoidal waveforms. To reconcile the differences observed between the published BM data and the IHC data, we have recorded receptor potentials from IHCs and compared these waveform data to the output of two computational models: a traditional linear model where IHC excitation depends only on BM displacement and a new model that assumes that outer hair cell (OHC) force production provides the major mechanical input to the IHC along with two additional mechanical components. Comparisons of the output of the two models with the experimental data show that the new model is capable of reproducing the very complex voltage responses of the IHC recorded in vivo whereas the traditional model performed poorly.

Acoustic Stimulation↗

Forecasting summertime surface-level ozone concentrations in the Lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia: an ensemble neural network approach.

Empirical models for predicting daily maximum hourly average ozone concentrations were developed for 10 monitoring stations in the Lower Fraser Valley (LFV) of British Columbia. According to data from 1991 to 1996, ensemble neural network models increased explained variance an average of 7% over multiple linear regression models using the same input variables. Without modification, all models performed poorly on days when the observed peak ozone concentration exceeded 82 parts per billion, the National Ambient Air Quality Objective. When numbers of extreme events in training data were increased using a histogram equalization process, models were able to forecast exceedances with improved accuracy. Modified generalized additive model (GAM) plots and associated measures of input variable importance and interaction were generated for a subset of the trained models and used to investigate relationships between input variables and ozone levels. The neural network models displayed a high degree of interaction among inputs, and it is likely the ability of these model types to account for interactions, rather than the nonlinearity of individual input variables, that explains their improved forecast skill. Inspection of GAM-style plots indicated that the relative importance of input variables in the ensemble neural network models varied with geographic location within the LFV. Four distinct groups of stations were identified, and rankings of inputs within the groups were generally consistent with physical intuition and results of prior studies.

Algorithms↗