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PubMedDate not supplied

An examination of suicide probability in alcoholic in-patients.

AIMS: This study evaluated correlations of self esteem, depression, and state-trait anxiety with suicide probability in alcohol dependence. METHODS: The sample consists of 70 patients who were hospitalized in the Alcohol and Substance Abuse Treatment Unit in the Psychiatry Clinic of Ankara University between the years 1999 and 2000. Patients' histories, the Suicide Probability Scale, the Coopersmith Self-Esteem Inventory, the Beck Depression Inventory and the Spielberger State-Trait Anxiety Scales were used. Correlation, linear regression and t-test statistical analyses were performed. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: It was found that self-esteem, depression and trait anxiety predict suicide probability. Suicide probability was higher within the sub-sample with a history of a suicidal act in comparison to those without such a history.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1992

On the theory of partially inbreeding finite populations. III. Fixation probabilities under partial selfing when heterozygotes are intermediate in viability.

In a previous paper by the senior author, an approximation to the probability of survival was given for a mutant, which is originally present in a single heterozygote, in a population that reproduces partly by selfing and partly by random mating. The population was assumed to be very large, but the result obtained is general with regard to the level of dominance in viability. In this paper two errors which were made in that earlier work are corrected. A general approximate expression is then derived for the probability that an allele A is fixed in a partially self fertilizing population of size N, if its initial frequency is p, selection is weak and heterozygotes with the allele are exactly intermediate in viability compared with genotypes AA and AA. A rigorous proof is given for a special case that is a generalization of the classical binomial sampling model. In this case, but not in general, the approximate fixation probability is independent of the probability of reproduction by selfing. Some implications are discussed.

Alleles↗

PubMed1973

Probability of fixation and mean fixation time of an overdominant mutation.

The probability of fixation of an overdominant mutation in a finite population depends on the equilibrium gene frequency in an infinite population (m) and the product (A) of population size and selection intensity. If m < 0.5 (disadvantageous overdominant genes), the probability is generally much lower than that of neutral genes; but if m is close to 0.5 and A is relatively small, it becomes higher. If m > 0.5 (advantageous overdominant genes), the probability is largely determined by the fitness of heterozygotes rather than that of mutant homozygotes. Thus, overdominance enhances the probability of fixation of advantageous mutations. The average number of generations until fixation of an overdominant mutation also depends on m and A. This average time is long when m is close to 0.5 but short when m is close to 0 or 1. This dependence on m and A is similar to that of Robertson's retardation factor.

Gene Frequency↗

PubMed1995

Assessment of therapeutic potential by means of a probability model of antimicrobial action.

The probability model of antimicrobial action is based on the definition of bactericidal activity as the probability, q, that any cell in the population will be killed during a division interval. Bacteriostatic activity is defined as a change in the division intervals (generation times) of the cells. A simplified, homogeneous model is used which assumes that, at a constant concentration of the drug, all cells have the same kill probability and the same generation times. Birth-death analysis techniques require that the combined bacteriostatic and bactericidal effects of the drug (they are not mutually exclusive) are accounted for. Moreover, to suitably reflect the combined effect, the rate of change of the viable population, i.e. the slope of a kill curve (activity), needs to be expressed not in terms of exposure time, but in units of drug-free generations (DFGs), obtained by dividing exposure time by a measured DFG time interval (growth rate). A Discrete MIC (DMIC) is defined as the zero slope kill curve, coinciding with the horizontal axis and dividing population change into a restrained (subinhibitory) growth region, below the DMIC, and population reduction above it. At the DMIC, the probability of a cell being killed is 0.5, resulting in no change from the initial inoculum concentration, since half the cells are killed but the remaining cells double. The DMIC is found to be a measure of bactericidal activity only, even though bacteriostatic activity may also be present. An antibiotic-organism activity profile includes measurement of the DMIC, rate of change of activity at the DMIC and normalized activity at a number of clinically relevant drug concentrations. An overall, quantitative efficacy value over a dosing interval can be obtained from the activity profile and expressed as the number of DFGs which are needed to achieve a 99.9% reduction of the viable population at the site of infection. These reference efficacy values can be used to derive interpretive standards (break-points) based upon a quantitative relationship between laboratory measurements and population reduction at the site of infection. Model-derived measures of efficacy also provide a basis for assessing drug combination activity, including quantitative criteria of synergy and antagonism.

Anti-Bacterial Agents↗

PubMed1990

The probability of multiple births when multiple gestational sacs or viable embryos are diagnosed at first trimester ultrasound.

The live birth outcome when multiple gestational sacs were diagnosed at first trimester ultrasound was reviewed in 227 twin, 43 triplet and five quadruplet pregnancies. When two gestational sacs were present, the probability of delivering twins was 63% for maternal age less than 30 and 52% for maternal age greater than or equal to 30. With three gestational sacs, the probability of a triplet birth was 45% for maternal age less than 30 and 18% for maternal age greater than or equal to 30. When two viable embryos were present, the probability of a twin birth was 90% for maternal age less than 30 and 84% for maternal age greater than or equal to 30. With three viable embryos, the probability of a triplet birth was 90% for maternal age less than 30 and 44% for maternal age greater than or equal to 30. Two gestations resulting from ovulation induction with clomiphene citrate were more likely to result in twin delivery at term, compared to spontaneous twin gestations (P = 0.012). These findings may be useful in the treatment and management of patients when multiple gestations are diagnosed early in pregnancy.

Adult↗

PubMed1999

Rapid tracheal intubation with rocuronium: a probability approach to determining dose.

BACKGROUND: Rapid tracheal intubation with rocuronium has not been studied using a probability-based approach. The authors aimed to predict doses of rocuronium giving 90% and 95% probability of in intubation within 60 s and to estimate their durations of action. METHODS: After premedication with midazolam, 2 mg, anesthesia was induced in 80 subjects with fentanyl, 2 microg/kg, followed 3 min later by propofol, 2 mg/kg. Patients received randomly rocuronium, 0.0, 0.4, 0.8, or 1.2 mg/kg (n = 20/ dose). Laryngoscopy began 40 s later, aiming for intubation at 60 s, and conditions were graded perfect, acceptable, or unacceptable, with the first two conditions being successful intubation. Anesthesia was maintained with isoflurane 0.5-1.0% (end-tidal) and fentanyL Duration of action was time until reappearance of the first tactile train-of-four response. The dose versus fraction of patients with successful intubation was analyzed by logistic regression. Doses giving 90% and 95% (D90 and D95) probability of successful intubation were calculated. RESULTS: intubation was successful in 7, 11, 18, and 19 patients in the 0.0, 0.4, 0.8, and 1.2 mg/kg groups, respectively. The D90 and D95 doses (95% confidence limits in parentheses) were 0.83 (0.59-1.03) and 1.04 (0.76-1.36) mg/kg, respectively. Estimated time until first tactile train-of-four response after D90 and D95 doses was 32 and 46 min, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: After induction with fentanyl and propofol, rocuronium, 1.04 mg/kg gives 95% probability of successful intubation at 60 s.

Adult↗

PubMed1975

On the probability of finding an HL-A- and ABO-compatible cadaver organ for transplantation.

This paper extends earlier work by Barnes and Miettinen regarding the probabilities of finding an HL-A and ABO-compatible cadaver organ for transplantation to incorporate the dependency of this probability on the continuous time scale. Graphs are derived which enable determination of the length of time required to achieve a certain probability of finding a compatible organ and the probability of finding a compatible organ within any time period. The proposed approach enables the immediate determination of the mean and variance of the required waiting time. The paper provides a practical setting for daily decision-making and enables the physician to more clearly convey information to the patient regarding his chances of finding a compatible donor within any given time period.

ABO Blood-Group System↗

PubMed2004

Local estimation of posterior class probabilities to minimize classification errors.

Decision theory shows that the optimal decision is a function of the posterior class probabilities. More specifically, in binary classification, the optimal decision is based on the comparison of the posterior probabilities with some threshold. Therefore, the most accurate estimates of the posterior probabilities are required near these decision thresholds. This paper discusses the design of objective functions that provide more accurate estimates of the probability values, taking into account the characteristics of each decision problem. We propose learning algorithms based on the stochastic gradient minimization of these loss functions. We show that the performance of the classifier is improved when these algorithms behave like sample selectors: samples near the decision boundary are the most relevant during learning.

Probability↗

PubMed1999

Combinatorial codons: a computer program to approximate amino acid probabilities with biased nucleotide usage.

Using techniques from optimization theory, we have developed a computer program that approximates a desired probability distribution for amino acids by imposing a probability distribution on the four nucleotides in each of the three codon positions. These base probabilities allow for the generation of biased codons for use in mutational studies and in the design of biologically encoded libraries. The dependencies between codons in the genetic code often makes the exact generation of the desired probability distribution for amino acids impossible. Compromises are often necessary. The program, therefore, not only solves for the "optimal" approximation to the desired distribution (where the definition of "optimal" is influenced by several types of parameters entered by the user), but also solves for a number of "sub-optimal" solutions that are classified into families of similar solutions. A representative of each family is presented to the program user, who can then choose the type of approximation that is best for the intended application. The Combinatorial Codons program is available for use over the web from http://www.wi.mit.edu/kim/computing.html.

Amino Acids↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Children's probability intuitions: understanding the expected value of complex gambles.

Two experiments used Information Integration Theory to study how children judge expected value of complex gambles in which alternative outcomes have different prizes. Six-year-olds, 9-year-olds and adults (N = 73 in Study 1, N = 28 in Study 2) saw chance games that involved shaking a marble in a bicolored tube. One prize was won if the marble stopped on blue, another if it stopped on yellow. Children judged how happy a puppet playing the game would be, with the prizes and probability of the blue and yellow outcomes varied factorially. Three main results appeared in both studies: First, participants in all age groups used the normatively prescribed multiplication rule for integrating probability and value of each individual outcome--a striking finding because multiplicative reasoning does not usually appear before 8 years of age in other domains. Second, all age groups based judgment of overall expected value meaningfully on both alternative outcomes, but there were individual differences--many participants deviated from the normative addition rule, showing risk seeking and risk averse patterns of judgment similar to the risk attitudes often found with adults. Third, even the youngest children took probability to be an abstract rather than physical property of the game. Overall, in contrast to the traditional view, the present results demonstrate functional understanding of probability and expected value in children as young as 5 or 6. These results contribute to the growing evidence on children's intuitive reasoning competence. This intuition can, on the one hand, support surprisingly precocious performance in young children, but it may also contribute to the biases evident in adults' judgment and decision.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2001

Case-control analysis with partial knowledge of exposure misclassification probabilities.

Consider case control analysis with a dichotomous exposure variable that is subject to misclassification. If the classification probabilities are known, then methods are available to adjust odds-ratio estimates in light of the misclassification. We study the realistic scenario where reasonable guesses, but not exact values, are available for the classification probabilities. If the analysis proceeds by simply treating the guesses as exact, then even small discrepancies between the guesses and the actual probabilities can seriously degrade odds-ratio estimates. We show that this problem is mitigated by a Bayes analysis that incorporates uncertainty about the classification probabilities as prior information.

Bayes Theorem↗

PubMed2005

Growth rate and growth probability of Listeria monocytogenes in dairy, meat and seafood products in suboptimal conditions.

AIMS: To evaluate the performances of models predicting the growth rate or the growth probability of Listeria monocytogenes in food. METHODS AND RESULTS: Cardinal and square root type models including or not interactions between environmental factors and probability models were evaluated for their ability to describe the behaviour of L. monocytogenes in liquid dairy products, cheese, meat and seafood products. Models excluding interactions seemed sufficient to predict the growth rate of L. monocytogenes. However, the accurate prediction of growth/no-growth limits needed to take interactions into account. A complete and a simplified form (preservatives deducted) of a new cardinal model including interactions and parameter values were suggested to predict confidence limits for the growth rate of L. monocytogenes in food. This model could also be used for the growth probability prediction. CONCLUSIONS: The new cardinal model including interactions was efficient to predict confidence limits for the growth rate of L. monocytogenes and its growth probability in liquid dairy products, meat and seafood products. In cheese, the model was efficient to predict the absence of growth of the pathogen. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: The suggested model can be used for risk assessment and risk management concerning L. monocytogenes in dairy, meat and seafood products.

Animals↗

PubMed2006

Bayesian selection of predictors of conception probabilities across the menstrual cycle.

There is increasing interest in identifying predictors of human fertility, including environmental exposures, behavioural factors, and biomarkers, such as mucus or reproductive hormones. Epidemiological studies typically measure fecundability, the per menstrual cycle probability of conception, using time to pregnancy data. A critical predictor, which is often ignored in the design or analysis, is the timing of non-contracepting intercourse in the menstrual cycle. In order to limit confounding by behavioural differences between exposure groups, it may be preferable to base inferences on day-specific conception probabilities in relation to intercourse timing. This article proposes Bayesian methods for selection of predictors of day-specific conception probabilities. A particular focus is the case in which data on ovulation timing are not available. We focus on the selection of fertile days in the cycle during which conception probabilities are non-negligible and predictors may play a role. Data from recent European and Italian prospective studies of daily fecundability are presented, and the proposed approach is used to estimate cervical mucus effects within a mid-cycle potentially fertile window using data from the Italian study.

Bayes Theorem↗

PubMed1989

Probability and likelihood in genetic counselling.

The aim of this paper is to clarify some of the concepts used in the calculation of risk in genetic counselling. The use of probability as a measure of risk in a particular case is reviewed, with special reference to the Fisher-Neyman controversy. The technical concept of likelihood is then introduced and applied to risk probabilities themselves. The difficulties of interpretation are discussed, with a distinction drawn between calculating the risk for a child and inferring the genotype of his mother, even though the risk is wholly determined by the genotype. Fiducial inference is briefly mentioned, and the paper ends with a discussion of the problem which arises when the functional relationship between an unknown parameter and the unknown risk is not 1:1. The conclusion is tentatively reached that risk can only be gauged by probability and thus that prior probabilities must sometimes be assumed, but the paper is primarily intended as a guide and catalyst for the informed discussion of some of the difficulties, which may involve ethical dilemmas.

Genetic Counseling↗

PubMed1986

Evaluation of therapeutic decisions in patients with suspected pulmonary embolism and a low probability lung scan: application of Bayes' Theorem.

Three hundred and one consecutive lung scans were reviewed to determine the frequency of the different ventilation perfusion scan patterns and their use in the management of suspected pulmonary embolism. Based on the original report, an accurate diagnosis was possible in 99 patients (33%). Within this group pulmonary embolism was excluded by a normal lung scan in 35 (12%), and confirmed in 64 (21%) patients having a high probability pattern. There were 194 (64%) patients with a low probability scan, but in only 24 of these (12%) was venous thromboembolism objectively confirmed or excluded by additional investigations. Although the low probability scan is non-specific, the scan result was used as the sole objective test to determine therapy in 170 patients (56%). The clinical decision was to withhold anticoagulants in 143 patients and to treat 27 patients. Probability estimates using Bayes' Theorem have been applied to evaluate these management decisions.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2006

Tactful or doubtful? Expectations of politeness explain the severity bias in the interpretation of probability phrases.

When a statement about the occurrence of a medical condition is qualified by an expression of probability, such as the word possible, listeners interpret the probability of the condition as being higher the more severe the condition. This severity bias can have serious consequences for the well-being of patients. We argue that the bias is due to a misconception of the pragmatic function served by the expression of probability. The more severe the condition, the greater the chance that the listener construes the expression as a politeness marker rather than as an uncertainty marker. When this misconception does not occur, neither should the severity bias. An analysis of interpretations of probability expressions using a membership-function approach validates this account. We discuss the consequences of this bias for the communication of risk within and outside the medical domain.

Adult↗

PubMed1992

Hazard and probabilities of unknown genotypes.

The likelihood of a genotype of an unsampled individual depends upon genetic data from relatives. When these relatives may be carriers of a mutation as in X-linked disease, the likelihood of a genotype is altered by the consequences of the possible genotypes on offspring. The probabilities of the possible genotypes are easily derived from the probabilities conditional on the genotype obtained from a computer program aimed at risk calculation. This procedure of genotype reconstruction brings to light a potential hazard in the interpretation of computer data: a compound risk may be better represented as the harmonic mean of a set of conditional probabilities than the simple average of these probabilities.

Female↗

PubMed2001

Vesicle release probability and pre-primed pool at glutamatergic synapses in area CA1 of the rat neonatal hippocampus.

Factors determining the release probability were examined using whole-cell patch-clamp recording and minimal stimulation (10 impulses, 50 Hz) of individual glutamatergic synapses, containing single release sites, on pyramidal neurones in the CA1 region of hippocampal slices from neonatal rats. Release probability following the first action potential in the burst (P1) varied among the synapses from 0 to 0.87 (mean +/- s.d.; 0.35 +/- 0.28, n = 52) and the average release during the burst (burst pool) varied from 0.4 to 4.1 events (1.7 +/- 0.85, n = 52). Heterogeneity in P1 did not co-vary with that of the burst pool. By selecting burst trials during which only one release event occurred, the vesicle release probability (Pves) at a release site could be determined. It was found to vary considerably among the synapses, from 0.04 to 0.94 (0.43 +/- 0.28, n = 43). This heterogeneity correlated significantly with that of P1 such that more than half of the variation of P1 could be explained by a variation in Pves. The average number of vesicles directly available for release at the onset of the burst (the pre-primed pool) was estimated as the cumulative release up to that point in the burst where a second release event did not produce higher initial release probability than that found in trials where only one vesicle was released. The average pre-primed pool varied among the synapses from 0.4 to 2.1 (1.03 +/- 0.42, n = 43). It co-varied significantly with that of P1 such that it could explain the remaining variation in P1. The difference between the burst pool and the pre-primed pool suggests the presence of a fast (< 100 ms), activity-dependent priming of vesicles. Some synapses (9/52) did not show any initial release (P1 = 0), but release occurred later during the burst ('low frequency mute synapses'). Their behaviour was explained by an absence of a pre-primed pool.

Action Potentials↗