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Acute respiratory effects of low level summer smog in primary school children.

We aimed to study the possible effects of exposure to a summer smog episode on the respiratory health of 212 school children. Furthermore, the suitability of the forced oscillation technique (FOT) to demonstrate such effects was evaluated. Acute respiratory symptoms were evaluated by questionnaire and lung function was assessed by spirometry and respiratory impedance measurements. For each child, comparisons were made between measurements performed at baseline (low levels of air pollutant: 55 micrograms.m-3 for SO2 and 58 micrograms.m-3 for NO2 (maximum 24 h means); O3 levels ranged from 2-56 micrograms.m-3 (8 h mean)); and after a summer smog episode (characterized by 8 h O3 levels > 120 micrograms.m-3 (163 micrograms.m-3) and 1 h levels > 160 micrograms.m-3 (215 micrograms.m-3). No significant effects were observed on the prevalence of acute respiratory symptoms. When individual changes in lung function indices (delta LF) were regressed on changes in previous day ozone (8 h mean) and changes in mean daily temperature (delta MTemp), using multiple linear regression analysis, a significant negative association was observed with peak expiratory flow (PEF), but not with other spirometry indices. Although significant associations were observed with reactance at 8 Hz (Xrs8), resonant frequency (f0) and frequency dependence of resistance (FD), the signs of the beta s were opposite to the direction expected when O3 adversely affected the impedance outcomes. In conclusion, in this study short-term exposure to moderately high levels of ozone did not result in clear adverse effects on the respiratory health of the children.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Acute Disease↗

Exercise capacity in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy depends on left ventricular diastolic function.

Some studies have demonstrated that left ventricular (LV) diastolic function is the principal determinant of impaired exercise capacity in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HC). In this study we sought the capability of echocardiographic indexes of diastolic function in predicting exercise capacity in patients with HC. We studied 52 patients with HC while they were not on drugs;12 of them had LV tract obstruction at rest. Diastolic function was assessed by M-mode and Doppler echocardiography by measuring: (1) left atrial fractional shortening, and the slope of posterior aortic wall displacement during early atrial emptying on M-mode left atrial tracing; and (2) Doppler-derived transmitral and pulmonary venous flow velocity indexes. Exercise capacity was assessed by maximum oxygen consumption by cardiopulmonary test during cycloergometer upright exercise. Maximum oxygen consumption correlated with the left atrial fractional shortening (r = 0.63, p <0.001), the slope of posterior aortic wall displacement during early atrial emptying (r = 0.55, p <0.001), age (r = -0.50; p <0.001), pulmonary venous diastolic anterograde velocity (r = 0.41, p <0.01), and the systolic filling fraction (r = -0.43; p <0.01). By stepwise multiple linear regression analysis, left atrial fractional shortening and the pulmonary venous systolic filling fraction were the only determinants of the maximum oxygen consumption (multiple r = 0.70; p <0.001). Exercise capacity did not correlate with Doppler-derived transmitral indexes. Thus, in patients with HC, exercise capacity was determined by passive LV diastolic function, as assessed by the left atrial M-mode and Doppler-derived pulmonary venous flow velocities.

Adolescent↗

Retrospective, longitudinal, and cross sectional study of visual acuity impairment in choroideraemia.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Few studies have reported on the change in visual acuity (VA) in patients with choroideraemia. In order to determine the degree and rate of VA impairment associated with this disease, the central VA was analysed in a large group of patients with choroideraemia. METHODS: The authors completed a retrospective, cross sectional review of 115 patients with choroideraemia from three tertiary care centres. A longitudinal analysis was performed on 45 of these patients who met the inclusion criteria of at least three visits over a minimum period of 4.5 years. Multiple linear regression analysis was used to explore the 5 year rate of VA change while controlling for initial VA and initial age. Multiple logistic regression was also used to investigate VA impairment. RESULTS: In the cross sectional group (n = 115), 84% (87/103) of patients under the age of 60 had a VA of 20/40 or better while 33% (4/12) of patients 60 years of age or older had a VA of 20/200 or worse at their most recent visit. The majority of the patients (93%) in the longitudinal subgroup of 45 patients had a VA of 20/30 or better at their initial visit. The mean 5 year rate of VA change was 0.09 logMAR equivalent (approximately one line on the Lighthouse chart). CONCLUSION: In this cohort of patients with choroideraemia, there was typically a slow rate of VA loss and the prognosis for central VA retention was, as a group, favourable until the seventh decade.

Adolescent↗

Retinal blood flow changes in type I diabetes. A long-term follow-up study.

PURPOSE: The authors previously reported that blood speeds in the retinal arteries were significantly lower in patients with type I diabetes than in controls without diabetes. The purpose of this long-term, follow-up study was to characterize the natural course of changes in blood speed and blood flow in these patients. METHODS: Twenty-four patients were followed up with serial annual measurements of the blood flow in a temporal retinal artery using the bidirectional laser Doppler technique and monochromatic photography. The follow-up period ranged from 2 to 6 years (mean, 3.8 years). Using standardized color fundus photography and fluorescein angiography, a retinopathy score was generated for each eye studied. Linear regression analysis was used to compute the slope of the change in retinal blood flow for each patient during the follow-up period. RESULTS: Retinal blood flow slopes were negative in 15 patients and positive in 9 patients. Multiple linear regression analysis showed that the retinal blood flow slopes were significantly related to the retinal blood flow measured at entry to the study and to the median duration of diabetes during the follow-up period (R2 = 0.56; P = 0.0002). There was a positive correlation between the retinal blood flow slopes and the median retinopathy score during the follow-up period (P = 0.47; P = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: As duration of diabetes becomes longer and retinopathy becomes more severe, there is a transition from negative to positive retinal blood flow slopes. This bimodal relationship between the change in retinal blood flow and the duration of diabetes reflects the complex pathologic alterations that occur in the diabetic retina.

Adult↗

Nutritional, socioeconomic, and reproductive factors in relation to female breast cancer mortality: findings from a cross-national study.

Using data from 66 countries, we conducted an international comparison study to identify the most important predictors of female breast cancer mortality rates. This study was unique in that it included data on per capita tobacco disappearance, alcohol consumption, socioeconomic status (SES), reproductive factors, and a wide array of nutritional data. Results of correlation and single independent-variable linear regression models indicated that breast cancer mortality was most strongly associated with dietary factors typically associated with affluence, especially animal products. The strongest negative (i.e., protective) associations were with those variables related to increased fertility and population growth. A multiple linear regression that accounted for all important predictors simultaneously explained 91% of the variability in mortality rates across these countries. This model indicated a strong positive association between breast cancer mortality and calories from animal sources. Fish and cereal products as well as annual percentage growth in population appeared to exert protective effects. Despite the limitations of this type of analysis, the observed effect of high meat and animal product consumption, the major contributor to variability in dietary fat, as well as the protective effect of increased fertility are consistent with the known biology of breast cancer. The protective effect of fish and cereal consumption that we observed will require further study.

Aged↗

Cognitive dysfunction in early-onset multiple sclerosis: a reappraisal after 10 years.

OBJECTIVE: To reassess, in a cohort of patients with early-onset multiple sclerosis, the long-term evolution of cognitive deficits, their relationship to the disease's clinical progression, and their effects on daily life. DESIGN: Ten years after our baseline assessment, we again compared the cognitive performance of patients and control subjects on a neuropsychological test battery. Clinical and demographic correlates of cognitive impairment and their effects on everyday functioning were determined by multiple linear regression analysis. SETTING: The research clinic of a university department of neurology. PARTICIPANTS: Forty-five inpatients and outpatients with multiple sclerosis and 65 demographically matched healthy controls from the original sample. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mean scores of both groups on the neuropsychological test battery in initial and 2 follow-up evaluations (about 4 and 10 years, respectively); number of cognitively impaired subjects, defined by the number of subtests failed; regression coefficients measuring the relationship between clinical variables and cognitive outcome and between mental decline and everyday functioning assessed by the Environmental and the Incapacity Status Scales. RESULTS: Previously detected cognitive defects in verbal memory, abstract reasoning, and linguistic processes were confirmed on the third testing, at which time deficits in attention/short-term spatial memory also emerged. Only 20 of 37 patients who were cognitively unimpaired on initial testing remained so by the end of the follow-up, when the proportion of subjects who were cognitively impaired reached 56%. Degree of physical disability, progressive disease course, and increasing age predicted the extent of cognitive decline. Disability level and degree of cognitive impairment were independent predictors of a patient's handicap in the workplace and in social settings. CONCLUSIONS: In the course of a sufficiently long follow-up, cognitive dysfunction is likely to emerge and progress in a sizable proportion of patients. As multiple sclerosis advances, neurological and cognitive involvement tend to converge. Limitations in a patient's work and social activities are correlated with the extent of cognitive decline, independent of degree of physical disability.

Activities of Daily Living↗

Determinants of alcohol use in pregnant women at risk for alcohol consumption.

The purpose of this investigation was to identify determinants of alcohol consumption based on a number of demographic and psychosocial variables in a group of pregnant women at risk for alcohol consumption. Data were collected on a sample of 232 pregnant females who agreed to participant in a multistate alcohol prevention intervention. The variables of interest included demographic measures of race, age, education, marital status, health status, employment status and if they had been involved in physical abuse during the past year. Additionally, psychosocial variables were collected on social support, family functioning, mental health and illicit drug use. The dependent variables of interest were any alcohol use during the pregnancy and an abuse measure that was based on a composite score generated from questions related to problems associated with alcohol behavior. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to see if the independent variables (demographic and psychosocial variables) were predictive of any alcohol use. Multiple linear regressions were conducted to ascertain if the independent measures were predictive of alcohol abuse. The results showed that race, age, physical abuse and to a lesser extent health were associated to any alcohol use and alcohol abuse. The findings with the psychosocial variables were not as robust. Nevertheless, problematic psychiatric and drug use composite scores were associated with alcohol abuse.

Adolescent↗

Determinants of functional capacity in chronic mitral regurgitation unassociated with coronary artery disease or left ventricular dysfunction.

Impaired functional capacity is common in patients with mitral regurgitation (MR), but the determinants of functional capacity in patients with normal left ventricular (LV) function are unclear. Forty patients with chronic, isolated, nonrheumatic MR with no coronary artery disease underwent exercise echocardiography with continuous expired gas analysis. Cardiac output and regurgitant stroke volume were measured at rest and immediately after exercise by pulsed-wave Doppler echocardiography. For controls, 17 healthy volunteers without MR were also studied. Patients achieved a significantly lower VO2max compared with controls (25.6 +/- 7.7 vs 31.7 +/- 7.7 ml/kg/min, p = 0.008). VO2max showed better correlations with exercise cardiac output than with cardiac output at rest in both patients and controls. Multiple linear regression identified exercise cardiac output (partial r = 0.65), patient age (partial r = -0.56), and gender as independent determinants of VO2max (multiple R = 0.85, p <0.001). Cardiac output at rest, LV ejection fraction, regurgitant stroke volume, and fraction were not significant determinants. With exercise, the regurgitant stroke volume increased in 13 patients and decreased in 27 patients. The former 13 patients had a significantly lower exercise cardiac output (7.4 +/- 2.5 vs 9.4 +/- 2.6 L/min, p = 0.026). Patients who stopped exercise due to dyspnea (n = 7) had a significantly lower exercise cardiac output and VO2max compared with those who stopped due to fatigue (n = 33), with no differences in resting or exercise regurgitant volume. Patients with an increase in LV end-systolic volume with exercise (n = 8) also had a significantly lower exercise cardiac output (6.9 +/- 1.9 vs 9.2 +/- 2.7 L/min, p = 0.037) and showed a trend toward a lower VO2max (21 +/- 7.5 vs 26 +/- 6.4 ml/kg/min, p = 0.07). In patients with chronic MR, exercise cardiac output is the major determinant of VO2max. Regurgitant volume and fraction are not related to functional capacity. Limitations in functional capacity in these patients may be more related to a diminished cardiac reserve than to a large regurgitant volume.

Anaerobic Threshold↗

Complex gastrointestinal surgery: impact of provider experience on clinical and economic outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Commonly performed elective gastrointestinal surgical procedures are carried out with low morbidity and mortality in hospitals throughout the United States. Complex operative procedures on the alimentary tract are performed with a relatively low frequency and are associated with higher mortality. Volume and experience of the surgical provider team have been correlated with better clinical and economic outcomes for one complex gastrointestinal surgical procedure, pancreaticoduodenectomy. This study evaluated whether provider volume and experience were important factors influencing clinical and economic outcomes for a variety of complex gastrointestinal surgical procedures in one state. STUDY DESIGN: Complex high-risk gastrointestinal surgical procedures were defined as those with statewide in-hospital mortality of > or = 5%, frequency of greater than 200 per year in the state, and requiring special surgical skill and expertise. Six procedures met these criteria. Using publicly available discharge data, all patients discharged from Maryland hospitals from July 1989 to June 1997 with a primary procedure code for one of the six study procedures were selected. Hospitals were classified into one of six groups based on the average number of study procedures per year: 10 or less; 11 to 20; 21 to 50; 51 to 100; 101 to 200; and 201 or more procedures per year. A hospital was included if at least one procedure was performed there during the study period. No providers fell within the 51 to 100, and 101 to 200 groups, so all analyses were performed for the remaining four volume groups that were classified, respectively, as minimal (10 or fewer procedures), low (11 to 20 procedures), medium (21 to 50 procedures), and high-volume groups (201 or more procedures). Poisson regression was used to assess the relationship between in-hospital mortality and hospital volume after case-mix adjustment. Multiple linear regression models were used to assess differences in average length-of-stay and average total hospital charges among hospital volume groups. We further analyzed mortality, length-of-stay, and charges at the procedural level to understand these subgroups of complex gastrointestinal patients. We also examined the relationship between provider volume and outcomes for malignant versus benign diagnosis groups. RESULTS: Complex gastrointestinal surgical procedures were performed on 4,561 patients in Maryland from July 1989 through June 1997. The study population averaged 61.6 years of age, was 55% male, 71% Caucasian, and had predominantly Medicare as a payment source. After case-mix adjustment, patients who underwent complex gastrointestinal surgical procedures at the medium-, low-, and minimal-volume provider groups had a 2.1, 3.3, and 3.2 times greater risk of in-hospital death, respectively, than patients at the high-volume provider (p < 0.001 for all comparisons); longer lengths-of-stay, 16.1, 15.7, and 15.5 days at the low-, medium-, and minimal-volume groups, respectively, versus 14.0 days for the high-volume provider (p < 0.001 for all comparisons). Similarly, adjusted charges at the high-volume provider were, on average, 14% less than those of the low-volume group, which had the next lowest charges. Although mortality rates differed by procedure type, for each procedure, mortality increased as provider volume decreased, following the pattern found in the aggregate analysis. After case-mix adjustment, the risk of in-hospital death for patients with malignant diagnoses was significantly higher for the medium-, low-, and minimal-volume groups compared with patients at the high-volume provider, relative risk of 3.1, 4.0, and 4.2, respectively, (p < 0.001 for all comparisons). CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that increased hospital experience is associated with a marked decrease in hospital mortality. The decreased mortality at the high-volume provider was also associated with shorter lengths-of-stay and lower hospital char

Clinical Competence↗

Application of the concise exposure index (OCRA) to tasks involving repetitive movements of the upper limbs in a variety of manufacturing industries: preliminary validations.

A summary of eight investigations is presented, which were carried out using standardized methods, for the purpose of quantifying exposure to tasks involving repetitive movements of the upper limbs, as well as quantifying the prevalence of work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) of the upper limbs in groups of exposed workers. A total of 462 exposed workers were examined, and the study also took into account the data pertaining to a matched reference group comprising 749 workers not exposed to any specific occupational risk. Regarding the quantification of exposure to increased risk, use was made of a concise index (OCRA index), proposed by Occhipinti, in this issue. The data resulting from the eight investigations were used for the study of measurements and models of association among the exposure variables (mainly represented by the OCRA index), as well as the effect variables represented by the prevalence of the various WMSDs of the upper limbs taken both individually and jointly. Significant associations were reported between the OCRA index and an effect indicator represented by the prevalence of all the WSMDs of the upper limbs, calculated on the number of upper limbs at risk. When a logarithmic conversion of the relative exposure (OCRA) and injury indices was carried out, a simple linear regression model resulted that seems to provide a satisfactory predictive performance of the risk of WMSDs of the upper limbs, based on the exposure index. The study confirmed the efficacy of various other models designed to predict effects based on multiple linear regression functions, in which the independent variables are represented by both the OCRA exposure index and by parameters relative to the breakdown by gender and age of the groups of exposed workers.

Arm↗

Relationship of serum thiocyanate concentrations to smoking characteristics.

Thiocyanate (SCN) concentrations were determined in serum samples from 130 young healthy persons (60 smokers) and related to their smoking and physiologic characteristics. Serum thiocyanate correlated strongly and approximately equally with the number of cigarettes/d X kg of ideal body weight (IBW) (r = 0.748), total nicotine intake in mg/d X kg IBW (r = 0.735), and total tar intake in mg/d X kg IBW (r = 0.731). Multiple linear regression analysis that included these factors as well as sex, marijuana use, menthol, and degree of inhalation only increased the multiple r to 0.803. A more sensitive statistical method (NYBAID) was also used to determine the most significant influences of these variables on serum SCN. The association with depth of inhalation (i.e., smoking versus nonsmoking) was dominant among the relationships considered. The highest SCN levels were exhibited in heavy nicotine users (8.58 +/- 3.00 mg/l), while average users had slightly lower concentrations (6.49 +/- 2.37 mg/l) (p less than 0.03). In nontobacco smokers, those who smoked marijuana several times weekly had higher SCN levels (4.66 +/- 2.16 mg/l) than noncannabis users (2.38 +/- 1.38 mg/l) (p less than 0.03). These studies confirm the utility of serum SCN as an index of smoking rate and demonstrate the role of secondary variables in accounting for the chemical in serum.

Adult↗

A statewide surveillance system for antimicrobial-resistant bacteria: New Jersey.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the validity of an active, hospital laboratory isolate-based surveillance system in estimating rates of infection and to evaluate the use of surveillance data in describing institutional risk factors for increased rates of infection. Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) was chosen as the prototype organism for these evaluations. DESIGN: Correlation Study: linear regression analysis and Student's t test were used to evaluate the correlation between number of MRSA isolates and number of MRSA infections in acute-care hospitals. Cross-Sectional Study: Student's t test, analysis of variance, and multiple linear regression analysis were used to evaluate the association between mean annual rate of MRSA blood isolates and institutional risk factors for increased rates of infection. SETTING: Acute-care hospitals, New Jersey. RESULTS: The number of MRSA blood isolates was significantly correlated with MRSA blood infections (R, 0.78; P < .01) and provided a good proxy measure for number of infections. Multivariate analysis demonstrated hospital location in the inner city (P = .02) and number of occupied beds (P < .01) to be independently associated with increased mean annual rates of MRSA blood isolates in acute-care hospitals. CONCLUSIONS: This surveillance system is a valid tool for the estimation of institutional rates of infection and for the determination of institutional risk factors for increased rates of infection. It is ideal for further population-based investigations of antimicrobial-resistant bacteria.

Acute Disease↗

Pentobarbital quantitation using immunoassays in Reye's syndrome patient serum.

Analysis of serum pentobarbital concentrations in 28 specimens from Reye's syndrome patients was conducted with modifications of three nonspecific immunoassay procedures originally designed to detect barbiturates in serum or urine. An adaptation of the urine enzyme-multiplied immunoassay technique (EMIT) Dupont aca barbiturate screen to the quantitation of serum pentobarbital is described. Replicate analysis of control specimens containing pentobarbital across a wide spectrum of concentrations revealed a between-day precision of less than 6%. Regression analysis revealed excellent agreement with a high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) method: (HPLC) = 0.98 (aca) - 0.07 (r = 0.97). Multiple linear regression analysis with a serum EMIT barbiturate screen and a urine fluorescence polarization immunoassay screen modified to quantitate pentobarbital in serum revealed excellent agreement among all methods, demonstrating that immunoassays offer a reliable approach to pentobarbital quantitation.

Humans↗

Association between -250G/A polymorphism of the hepatic lipase gene promoter and coronary artery disease and HDL-C levels in a Southern Brazilian population.

Hepatic lipase (HL) is a glycoprotein that plays a major role in remodeling high-density lipoprotein (HDL). The effect of the -250G/A promoter polymorphism on coronary artery disease (CAD) and lipid levels was studied in 231 male CAD patients and in a population-based sample of men and women (n = 514). A sample of 140 men was chosen among those included in the population-based sample as controls for the CAD sample. In the total group of CAD patients, the frequency of the -250A allele was somewhat lower (25% in CAD patients and 32% in controls; p = 0.06), but when the control samples were compared only with the CAD(+) sample (more than 60% of luminal stenosis in at least one coronary artery or major branch segment) the -250A allele was significantly less frequent (23% in the patients vs 32% in controls; p = 0.02). A multiple logistic regression analysis showed that this association was independent of classical CAD risk factors [odds ratio (OR) = 1.79, p = 0.025]. Using multiple linear regression analyses, it has been shown that this polymorphism was a significant factor affecting HDL-C levels in men from the population-based sample (p = 0.001), an interaction between -250G/A variant and wine consumption was also detected (p = 0.001). Thus, our results show that the -250G/A polymorphism in the HL gene is associated with significant variations in HDL-C levels and CAD risk in males.

Adult↗

Development of a nonhuman primate model for spontaneous hypertension. Blood pressures in first-generation offspring.

A breeding colony of two subspecies of African green monkeys has been established in an attempt to develop a strain of nonhuman primates with inherited spontaneous hypertension. Selective breeding of normotensive and hypertensive feral animals has produced over 300 first-generation, colony-born offspring of nine possible types, which were grouped according to parentage. Blood pressures were measured by indirect methods in 335 unanesthetized animals aged 0.5 to 6 years. Analysis of variance and covariance of mean blood pressures of animals aged 0.5 to 6 years indicated significant differences between control and experimental offspring groups (p less than .001) both before and after adjusting for sex, subspecies, age, and body weight. Mean blood pressures of control and experimental (p less than .02) offspring were significantly different from 0.5 to 5 years of age. The slopes of the regression of mean blood pressure on age were significantly different between the control and experimental groups (p less than .001). Multiple linear regression analysis indicated significant differences among blood pressure, body weight, and age (p less than .001) and also between age and weight (p less than .001) between the groups. The relative contributions of age and weight to determining the mean blood pressure differed, however. The results indicate that elevated blood pressures can be detected in offspring with even one parent having elevated blood pressure from as early as 1 year of age and that the tendency to develop elevated blood pressure is transmitted from parent to offspring in this species, thereby providing a strong indication that a hypertensive strain of monkeys can be developed through selective breeding.

Age Factors↗

[The application of the concise exposure index to repetitive movement tasks of the upper limbs in various production settings: preliminary experience and validation].

A summary of eight investigations is presented, which were carried out using standardised methods, for the purpose of quantifying exposure to tasks involving repetitive movements of the upper limbs, as well as quantifying the prevalence of Work Related Musculo Skeletal Disorders of the upper limbs in groups of exposed workers. A total of 462 exposed workers were examined, and the study also took into account the data pertaining to a matched control group comprising 749 workers not exposed to any specific occupational risk. Regarding the quantification of exposure to increased risk, use was made of a Concise Index (OCRA), proposed by the Authors in a previous publication. The data resulting from the eight investigations were used for the study of measurements and models of association among the exposure variables (mainly represented by the OCRA index), as well as the effect variables represented by the prevalence of the various WMSDs of the upper limbs taken both individually and jointly. Significant associations were reported between the OCRA index and an effect indicator represented by the prevalence of all the WSMDs of the upper limbs, calculated on the number of upper limbs at risk. When a logarithmic conversion of the relative exposure (OCRA) and injury indices was carried out, a simple linear regression model resulted which seems to provide a satisfactory predictive performance of the risk of WMSDs of the upper limbs, based on the exposure index. The study confirmed the efficacy of various other models designed to predict effects based on multiple linear regression functions, in which the independent variables are represented by both the OCRA exposure index and by parameters relative to the breakdown by sex and age of the groups of exposed workers.

Adult↗

Haseman and Elston revisited.

Haseman and Elston (H-E) [1972] proposed a method to detect quantitative trait loci by linkage to a marker. The squared sib-pair trait difference is regressed on the proportion of marker alleles the pair is estimated to share identical by descent: a significantly negative regression coefficient suggests linkage. It has been shown that a maximum likelihood method that directly models the sib-pair covariance has more power. This increase in power can also be obtained using the H-E regression procedure by changing the dependent variable from the squared difference to the mean-corrected product of the sibs' trait values. Multiple sibs in a sibship can be accommodated by allowing for the correlations between pairs of products in a generalized least squares procedure. Multiple trait loci, including epistatic interactions, involve only multiple linear regression. Multivariate traits can use the method of Amos et al. [1990] to find the linear function of the traits that maximizes the evidence for linkage, which now leads more simply to a test of significance. Multiple markers can be the basis of a multipoint analysis. Results of simulation studies for a continuous trait are presented that investigate Type I error and power. A similar general scheme can be used to study affected sib pairs, testing whether their identity by descent sharing probabilities are greater than would be expected in the absence of linkage, and to study other types of relative pairs.

Alleles↗

Is love of nature in the US becoming love of electronic media? 16-year downtrend in national park visits explained by watching movies, playing video games, internet use, and oil prices.

After 50 years of steady increase, per capita visits to US national parks have declined since 1988. This decline, coincident with the rise in electronic entertainment media, may represent a shift in recreation choices with broader implications for the value placed on biodiversity conservation and environmentally responsible behavior. We compared the decline in per capita visits with a set of indicators representing alternate recreation choices and constraints. The Spearman correlation analyses found this decline in NPV to be significantly negatively correlated with several electronic entertainment indicators: hours of television, (rs=-0.743, P<0.001), video games (rs=-0.773, P<0.001), home movies (rs=-0.788, P<0.001), theatre attendance (rs=-0.587, P<0.025) and internet use (rs=-0.783, P<0.001). There were also significant negative correlations with oil prices (rs=-0.547, P<0.025), foreign travel (rs=-0.452, P<0.05), and Appalachian Trail hikers (rs=-0.785, P<0.001). Income was significantly positively correlated with foreign travel (rs=0.621, P<0.005) but negatively correlated with national park visits (rs=-0.697, P<0.005). There was no significant correlation of mean number of vacation days, indicating available vacation time is probably not a factor. Federal funding actually increased during this period, and so was rejected as a probable factor. Park capacity was rejected as limiting since both total overnight stays and visits at the seven most popular parks rose well into the mid-1990s. Aging of baby boomers was also rejected as they are only now reaching retirement age, and thus during the period of visitation decline were still of prime family vacation age. Multiple linear regression of four of the entertainment media variables as well as oil prices explains 97.5% of this recent decline (r=0.975, multiple r2=0.950, adjusted multiple r2=0.925, SE=0.015, F=37.800, P<0.0001). We may be seeing evidence of a fundamental shift away from people's appreciation of nature (biophilia, Wilson 1984) to 'videophilia,' which we here define as "the new human tendency to focus on sedentary activities involving electronic media." Such a shift would not bode well for the future of biodiversity conservation.

Ecology↗