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At least 667 records · Page 37Linked to original sources
PubMed1992

Forecasting the impact of demographic change: the case of the British National Health Service.

By projecting trends over the period 1971-85 in discharge rates and lengths of stay in acute and geriatric National Health Service hospitals in England, it is estimated that by 1995 the discharge rate will have risen by 13% and average lengths of stay will have fallen by 26%. Combining these projections with current population projections for England, it is estimated that 13% fewer beds will be in daily use. These changes are shown to vary widely across specialties. The projections reveal that demographic change per se is a less important source of change than are changing activity rates. The 'trend' projections suggest that purchasers and providers within internal markets will have to take account of very different degrees of pressure between specialties. They can provide information which is essential for negotiations about local needs and local contracts.

Aged↗
PubMed1990

A log-linear approach to disaggregated micro-level population forecasts.

"This paper proposes the use of a log-linear model to obtain long-range micro-level population projections from the aggregative projections. The proposed model is tested using U.S. data. The total population of households is decomposed into 120 subgroups on the basis of the household's region of location, age, size and the female's employment status. The estimated number of households from the log-linear technique is compared against the random-walk and time-trend methods. A comparison of the size of the observed and estimated subgroups for the years 1960 and 1980 suggests that the log-linear technique is superior to the other two methods. Five different measures of errors are used to evaluate the projections."

Age Factors↗
PubMed1994

Research needed to improve solar flare and particle forecasting.

We briefly review the status of our physical understanding of energy buildup and release in transient active phenomena on the Sun. Such understanding is necessary in order to improve our capabilities to predict such events and their effects in interplanetary space and near-Earth environment. We then discuss the research that we consider is needed for such improvement.

Astronomy↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Influenza: forecast for a pandemic.

Recently, great speculation about a possible influenza pandemic has been made. However, the facts supporting the possibility of this threat are less discussed. During the last decade highly pathogenic strains of avian influenza virus, including the H5N1 subtype, crossed the species barriers from birds to humans and caused fatal disease. The Z strain of H5N1 subtype is characterized by pathogenicity to a larger number of animal species and by resistance to the older class of antiviral drugs. At present, two out of three general conditions for the onset of a pandemic have been met; namely, the emergence of a new virus and its ability to replicate in humans causing serious illness. Should the virus achieve efficient human-to-human transmission, the next influenza pandemic might occur. This review addresses these biological and epidemiological aspects of influenza in the context of history and characteristics of previous epidemics, as well as concrete actions that can be undertaken considering current understanding of influenza pathogenesis, treatment, and control possibilities.

Humans↗
PubMed2005

Forecasting environmental equity: air quality responses to road user charging in Leeds, UK.

Sustainable development requires that the goals of economic development, environmental protection and social justice are considered collectively when formulating development strategies. In the context of planning sustainable transport systems, trade-offs between the economy and the environment, and between the economy and social justice have received considerable attention. In contrast, much less attention has been paid to environmental equity, the trade-off between environmental and social justice goals, a significant omission given the growing attention to environmental justice by policy makers in the EU and elsewhere. In many countries, considerable effort has been made to develop clean transport systems by using, for example, technical, economic and planning instruments. However, little effort has been made to understand the distributive and environmental justice implications of these measures. This paper investigates the relationship between urban air quality (as NO2) and social deprivation for the city of Leeds, UK. Through application of a series of linked dynamic models of traffic simulation and assignment, vehicle emission, and pollutant dispersion, the environmental equity implications of a series of urban transport strategies, including road user cordon and distance-based charging, road network development, and emission control are assessed. Results indicate a significant degree of environmental inequity exists in Leeds. Analysis of the transport strategies indicates that this inequity will be reduced through natural fleet renewal, and, perhaps contrary to expectations, road user charging is also capable of promoting environmental equity. The environmental equity response is, however, sensitive to road pricing scheme design.

Air Pollution↗
PubMed2005

Improvement of pollutant drift forecast system applied to the Prestige oil spills in Galicia Coast (NW of Spain): development of an operational system.

An integrated system named METEOMOHID, developed by MeteoGalicia in the first stage of the Prestige accident in November 2002 was used successfully in an operational form to support decision making and assist in recovering tasks. Afterwards, METEOMOHID has been enhanced with the aim of developing an operational oceanography system to be used in the NW of the Iberian Peninsula. The METEOMOHID system includes local area hydrodynamic coastal ocean modelling (MOHID), real time atmospheric forcing from a local meteorological model (ARPS). Using the available data from the Prestige crisis, a set of simulations were designed in order to reproduce the oil spill drift. The implementation of a detailed vertical resolution in the model has allowed obtaining a detailed surface dynamic, improving our knowledge of the behaviour of tarballs into the water column. Thus, the wind-driven Eckman drift, the direct dragging of the wind were detached, and the possible existence of subsurface oil was assessed. In addition, the present work evaluates the effects of introducing climatologic large scale currents in the METEOMOHID system.

Atlantic Ocean↗
PubMed2005

Forecasting science futures: legitimising hope and calming fears in the embryo stem cell debate.

Controversies about biotechnologies often centre not so much on present scientific facts as on speculations about risks and benefits in the future. It is this key futuristic element in these arguments that is the focus of this article. We examine how competing visions of utopia or dystopia are defended through the use of diverse vocabularies, metaphors, associations and appeals to authority. Our case study explores how these rhetorical processes play out in the debate about embryo stem cell research in UK national press and TV news media. The findings show how predictions from those in favour of embryo stem cell research are supported by both hype and by anti-hype, by inconsistent appeals to the technologies' innovative status and by the selective deconstruction of concepts such as 'potential' and 'hope'. The debate also mobilises binary oppositions around reason versus emotion, science versus religion and fact versus fiction. This article highlights how traditional assertions of expertise are now combined with ideas about compassion and respect for democracy and diversity. It also highlights the fact that although news reporters are often responding to topical events the real focus is often on years, even decades ahead. Close attention to how images of the future are constructed, and the evolution of new strategies for legitimation are, we suggest, important areas of on-going research, particularly in discussions of scientific and medical developments and policy.

Anxiety↗
PubMed1997

Antiarrhythmic therapy--future trends and forecast for the 21st century.

This article discusses recent changes in antiarrhythmic therapy, with a focus on nonpharmacologic therapy (electrode catheter ablation, implantable cardioverter-defibrillators [ICDs]), and puts them into perspective for the coming years. The treatment of supraventricular tachycardias and tachycardia involving accessory pathways is likely to remain the domain of catheter ablation. With promising new techniques under investigation, the spectrum of arrhythmias that can be cured will probably be expanded. Treatment of life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias is likely to remain the domain of the ICD in the foreseeable future. With the safety net of the ICD in place, new antiarrhythmic drugs or other forms of antiarrhythmic therapy can be developed and tested.

Anti-Arrhythmia Agents↗
PubMed2003

Bioadsorber efficiency, design, and performance forecasting for alachlor removal.

This study discusses a mathematical modeling and design protocol for bioactive granular activated carbon (GAC) adsorbers employed for purification of drinking water contaminated by chlorinated pesticides, exemplified by alachlor. A thin biofilm model is discussed that incorporates the following phenomenological aspects: film transfer from the bulk fluid to the adsorbent particles, diffusion through the biofilm immobilized on adsorbent surface, adsorption of the contaminant into the adsorbent particle. The modeling approach involved independent laboratory-scale experiments to determine the model input parameters. These experiments included adsorption isotherm studies, adsorption rate studies, and biokinetic studies. Bioactive expanded-bed adsorber experiments were conducted to obtain realistic experimental data for determining the ability of the model for predicting adsorber dynamics under different operating conditions. The model equations were solved using a computationally efficient hybrid numerical technique combining orthogonal collocation and finite difference methods. The model provided accurate predictions of adsorber dynamics for bioactive and non-bioactive scenarios. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated the significance of various model parameters, and focussed on enhancement in certain key parameters to improve the overall process efficiency. Scale-up simulation studies for bioactive and non-bioactive adsorbers provided comparisons between their performances, and illustrated the advantages of bioregeneration for enhancing their effective service life spans. Isolation of microbial species revealed that fungal strains were more efficient than bacterial strains in metabolizing alachlor. Microbial degradation pathways for alachlor were proposed and confirmed by the detection of biotransformation metabolites and byproducts using gas chromatography/mass spectrometry.

Acetamides↗