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Expression of the c-kit receptor characterizes a subset of neuroblastomas with favorable prognosis.

Expression of the c-kit proto-oncogene product in neuroblastomas has been reported, but its clinical relevance is unclear. We determined the expression of c-kit by immunohistochemistry in a series of 155 neuroblastomas with long-term follow-up. The specificity of the reaction was verified by Western blot analysis and quantitative RT-PCR, and exon 11 of the kit gene was screened for mutations by PCR and capillary electrophoresis. No mutations were detected, and transcription of the kit gene correlated with protein expression. c-kit expression was associated with lower tumor stages and a low rate of MYCN amplification. More importantly, it coincided with tumor differentiation (P<0.0001), and portended a favorable outcome with a relative risk of 0.18 (P<0.0001). In a multivariate analysis of event-free survival, loss of c-kit (relative risk 4.25, P<0.0001) was an independent prognostic factor next to INSS stage 4 and before MYCN amplification. It is concluded that c-kit is transcriptionally regulated in neuroblastomas. Its expression likely identifies a subset of neuroblastomas with conserved capacity for differentiation, which may represent the embryonal variety of the disease. Assessment of c-kit may improve prognostic models for neuroblastoma and provide a basis for new therapy concepts.

Cell Differentiation↗

Thalidomide in patients with advanced multiple myeloma: a study of 83 patients--report of the Intergroupe Francophone du Myélome (IFM).

BACKGROUND: To evaluate treatment by thalidomide and identify predictive factors of survival, event free survival and response among patients with advanced multiple myeloma treated with thalidomide as single agent therapy. PATIENTS AND TREATMENT: Patients with advanced multiple myeloma (n=83) were treated with an oral dose of thalidomide (median 400 mg/day). At start of treatment, all patients had active disease and 58 (69%) had received at least one autologous transplantation. RESULTS: With a median follow-up of 338 days (range, 247-629 days), 52 patients are alive, whereas 31 died between 8 and 150 days after the first administration of thalidomide. The response to thalidomide was considered as major in 11 patients (13%), partial in 29 patients (35%) and minor in 15 patients (18%), giving a total response rate of 66% (54 out of 83 patients). Thirteen patients had stable disease and 15 patients progressed. In multivariable analysis, age greater than 60 years, short interval between diagnosis and onset of thalidomide, requirement for red blood cell transfusion, IgA isotype, platelets' count <80 x 10(9)/l and serum albumin level <30 g/l at the start of thalidomide were associated with poor outcome. These three last factors produced a simplified prognostic model for patients with advanced myeloma and treated with thalidomide. Thus, among the 38 patients without any of these unfavorable risk features, one-year overall survival and event free survival were 87% and 78%. By contrast, the 43 patients with at least one unfavorable feature had one-year overall survival and event free survival of 40% and 32%, respectively (Log-Rank, P=0.0002 for both). Patients who received > or =34.4 g of thalidomide in the first 90 days of treatment had a better outcome than those who received <34.4 g. However, the mean received daily dose of thalidomide in the first 90 days has not been found to influence survival, event free survival or response. Short-term side effects of thalidomide were generally moderate. CONCLUSION: Thalidomide is an effective treatment for patients with advanced myeloma, in particular, who have no poor-risk features. The poor results achieved by the other patients emphasize the need for prospective protocols using thalidomide in combination, especially with dexamethasone. In addition, further studies are needed to determine the optimal thalidomide dose and duration.

Adult↗

The impact of low-risk intensive care unit admissions on mortality probabilities by SAPS II, APACHE II and APACHE III.

A large proportion of intensive care unit patients are low-risk admissions. Mortality probabilities generated by predictive systems may not accurately reflect the mortality experienced by subpopulations of critically ill patients. We prospectively assessed the impact of low-risk admissions (mortality risk < 10%) on the mortality estimates generated by three prognostic models. We studied 1497 consecutive admissions to a general intensive care unit. The performance of the three models for subgroups and the whole population was analysed. The proportions of patients designated as low risk varied with the model and differences in model performance were most pronounced for these patients. The APACHE II mortality ratios (1.32 vs. 1.19) did not differ for low- and higher risk patients, but mortality ratios generated by APACHE III (2.38 vs. 1.23) and SAPS II (2.19 vs. 1.16) were nearly two-fold greater. Calibration for higher risk patients was similar for all three models but the APACHE III system calibrated worse than the other models for low-risk patients. This may have contributed to the poorer overall calibration of the APACHE III system (Hosmer-Lemeshow C-test: APACHE III chi(2) = 329; APACHE II chi(2) = 42; SAPS II chi(2) = 62). Imperfect characterisation of the large proportion of low-risk intensive care unit admissions may contribute to the deterioration of the models' predictive accuracies for the intensive care population as a whole.

APACHE↗

Outcome predictions for patients with metastatic prostate cancer.

Estimating prognosis with patients with metastatic disease is important for patient counseling, guiding treatment selection, and assessing treatment outcomes. For patients with noncastrate metastatic disease, androgen ablation is considered first-line therapy, with upward of 80% of patients showing clinical benefit. For these patients, information about duration of response to hormones and overall survival is important. Most patients eventually relapse, at which point the mortality from cancer greatly exceeds that from other causes. This article focuses on prognostic models for patients with progressive noncastrate and castrate metastatic prostate cancer.

Antineoplastic Agents, Hormonal↗

Transplantation for primary biliary cirrhosis.

Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) remains one of the commoner indications for orthotopic liver replacement. The two main indications for transplantation are poor quality of life (because of the liver) or end-stage liver disease. A number of prognostic models have identified risk factors indicating poor prognosis, but in practice serum bilirubin greater than 150 mumol/L is used most commonly. Other indications for transplantation include progression of hepatopulmonary syndrome, increasing osteoporosis, evidence of malnutrition, and development of hepatocellular carcinoma. Postoperatively, patients do well. Recurrence of PBC remains controversial, but an increasing number of centers now report that a proportion of patients develop evidence of recurrent disease in the allograft. As yet PBC recurrence remains of little practical importance, although as survival increases beyond 10 years, this may become more relevant.

Fatigue↗

Prognostic factors in adult acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

The prognosis of patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), treated with modern chemotherapeutic regimens, is dependent on a number of variables. The major prognostic factors for survival in adult ALL are age, cytogenetic abnormalities, immunologic subtype, white blood cell (WBC) count, and time to achieve complete remission (CR). Determination of these factors is crucial for adapting post remission therapy in adult ALL. Indeed, risk-adapted strategies based on those biologic and clinical features are currently being applied to improve survival. In this review, we report the different prognostic factors described in adult ALL and discuss the controversies in current adult ALL management in relation with these different features. The data reported are derived from the medical literature and from the experience of the authors. Prognostic factors appear to be time-dependent. This emphasizes their determination according to the phase of treatment. The use of time-segmented multivariate analysis able to distinguish prognostic factors associated with the induction phase and those associated with the post-induction phase of treatment seems suitable to define accurately prognostic models.

Biomarkers↗

The prognostic value of clinical and laboratory parameters in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

PURPOSE: Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is heterogeneous in its clinical course. The aim of the present study was to identify some clinical and laboratory parameters with prognostic value in relation to survival of patients with CLL. PATIENTS AND METHODS: One hundred thirty one patients with CLL, treated in the Clinic of Hematology, Plovdiv, between 1992 and 2003 were studied. The patients' survival was analyzed by using the Kaplan-Meier method. Log-rank test was used to compare cumulative survival functions between different groups of patients. The parameters studied were: age, sex, Rai clinical stage, ECOG Performance status (PS), FAB morphological type, mediastinal lymphadenopathy, abdominal nodal mass, extranodal localization, absolute lymphocyte count, autoimmune hemolytic anemia, and response to therapy. RESULTS: The mean survival of patients was 76 months (95% Confidence Interval, 64-87). The following factors were found to carry significant prognostic value in relation to survival: Rai clinical stage, ECOG PS, mediastinal lymphadenopathy, extranodal localization, FAB morphological type and response to initial standard treatment. CONCLUSION: The prognostic factors identified in the present study can be easily applied in the clinical practice and may be used as a basis for creating mathematical prognostic models.

Adult↗

Prognostic factors for survival in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis patients treated with riluzole.

The objective of this study was to identify prognostic factors for survival in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis from a large prospective observational study performed in France. The study included a cohort of 2069 patients fulfilling broad entry criteria treated with riluzole. Over 100 demographic, biological, clinical and quality-of-life variables were monitored and assessed for their effect on survival. Patients were randomized post hoc into two groups: one group (two-thirds of the patients) to generate the prognostic models and one group (one-third of the patients) to validate the resulting models. Thirteen variables were found to affect survival independently and were used to construct a survival prediction score, RL401. These included age, disease duration, slow vital capacity, intensity of tiredness (visual analogue scale), number of body levels with spasticity, atrophy and/or fasciculations, cough, distal muscle strength, household income, depression and two biological parameters, plasma creatinine levels and neutrophil counts. A simplified score, RL401S, was constructed, designed to be easy to use and interpret. The predictive powers of the two scores were similar.

Adult↗

Predicting mobility outcome one year after stroke: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a prognostic model to predict mobility outcome one year post-stroke. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study in patients with a first-ever stroke admitted for inpatient rehabilitation. PATIENTS: A total of 217 patients with stroke (mean age 58 years) following inpatient rehabilitation in 4 rehabilitation centres across the Netherlands. METHODS: Mobility was measured using the Rivermead Mobility Index at one year poststroke. Included independent variables were: patient and stroke characteristics, functional status, urinary incontinence, sitting balance, motor and cognitive function. Univariate and multivariate linear regression analyses were performed in a model-developing set (n=174) and the model was validated in cross-validation set (n=43). RESULTS: Total Rivermead Mobility Index score at one year post-stroke was predicted by functional status, sitting balance, time between stroke onset and measurement, and age. The derived model predicted 48% of the variance, while validation in the cross-validation set resulted in an adjusted R(2) of 0.47. CONCLUSION: The present prospective study shows that outcome of mobility one year after stroke can be predicted validly by including functional status, sitting balance, moment of admission to the rehabilitation centre after stroke onset and age.

Activities of Daily Living↗

Stroke genetics and how it Informs novel drug discovery.

INTRODUCTION: Stroke is one of the main causes of death and disability worldwide. Nevertheless, despite the global burden of this disease, our understanding is limited and there is still a lack of highly efficient etiopathology-based treatment. It is partly due to the complexity and heterogenicity of the disease. It is estimated that around one-third of ischemic stroke is heritable, emphasizing the importance of genetic factors identification and targeting for therapeutic purposes. AREAS COVERED: In this review, the authors provide an overview of the current knowledge of stroke genetics and its value in diagnostics, personalized treatment, and prognostication. EXPERT OPINION: As the scale of genetic testing increases and the cost decreases, integration of genetic data into clinical practice is inevitable, enabling assessing individual risk, providing personalized prognostic models and identifying new therapeutic targets and biomarkers. Although expanding stroke genetics data provides different diagnostics and treatment perspectives, there are some limitations and challenges to face. One of them is the threat of health disparities as non-European populations are underrepresented in genetic datasets. Finally, a deeper understanding of underlying mechanisms of potential targets is still lacking, delaying the application of novel therapies into routine clinical practice.

Humans↗

Merging claims databases with a tumor registry to evaluate variations in cancer mortality: results from a pilot study of 698 colorectal cancer patients treated at one hospital in the 1990s.

BACKGROUND: Prognostic models are essential for evaluating variations in cancer mortality statistics. While cancer stage is the most widely accepted and commonly used predictor of survival for cancer, electronic claims databases contain large amounts of information on cancer patients. Previous studies have used Medicare databases and tumor registry information from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results data sets to evaluate variations in outcomes for older cancer patients. We evaluated if similar analytic efforts could be carried out with readily available data sets for colorectal cancer patients of all ages who received care at a single hospital during the 1990s. METHODS: Hospital tumor registry and discharge claims data for patients at one mid-western hospital with surgically treated stage I-III colorectal cancer from 1990-1998 were used to model survival. Kaplan-Meier logrank tests and Cox proportional hazards models tested the statistical significance of demographic, operative, and clinicopathological factors as predictors of survival. Survival probabilities also were compared to U.S. population life table data to determine if survival deficits were larger for younger cancer patients. RESULTS: Of the 698 colorectal cancer patients, overall five-year survival probability was 65%, with a median follow-up of 44.7 months. Factors associated with higher relative risks of death included sociodemographic characteristics [female gender (1.5, 95% CI: 1.1-1.9), ages 70-79 years (1.7, 95% CI: 1.2-2.3), and > or = 80 years (3.3, 95% CI: 2.4-4.7) as compared to younger patients], clinical characteristics [moderate (1.5, 95% CI: 1.1-2.1) or severe (2.1, 95%: 1.4-3.2) comorbid illness, as compared to mild or no comorbid illnesses and emergency admission (2.1, 95% CI: 1.5-2.9)], pathological characteristics [positive surgical margins (3.5, 95% CI: 2.3-5.3): and higher cancer stage (stage II RR = 1.5, 95% CI = 1.1-2.2; stage III RR = 2.2, 95% CI = 1.5-3.2), as compared to stage I]. A comparison to the age- and gender-matched survival probabilities of the general population demonstrated similar deficits in survival for older patients (> or = 70 years) and younger patients (< 70 years). CONCLUSIONS: While cancer stage is a reliable predictor of survival, other sociodemographic and clinical data elements can improve the evaluation of expected survival rates for patients with surgically resectable colorectal cancers. To facilitate comparative interpretations of mortality data, consideration should be given to merging hospital discharge claims data sets with tumor registry information in a manner analogous to that which has been done for older cancer patients who are covered by the Medicare program.

Adult↗

Improved risk adjustment for comparison of surgical site infection rates.

OBJECTIVE: To develop prognostic models for improved risk adjustment in surgical site infection surveillance for 5 surgical procedures and to compare these models with the National Nosocomial Infection Surveillance system (NNIS) risk index. DESIGN: In a multicenter cohort study, prospective assessment of surgical site infection and risk factors was performed from 1996 to 2000. In addition, risk factors abstracted from patient files, available in a national medical register, were used. The c-index was used to measure the ability of procedure-specific logistic regression models to predict surgical site infection and to compare these models with models based on the NNIS risk index. A c-index of 0.5 indicates no predictive power, and 1.0 indicates perfect predictive power. SETTING: Sixty-two acute care hospitals in the Dutch national surveillance network for nosocomial infections. PARTICIPANTS: Patients who underwent 1 of 5 procedures for which the predictive ability of the NNIS risk index was moderate: reconstruction of the aorta (n=875), femoropopliteal or femorotibial bypass (n=641), colectomy (n=1,142), primary total hip prosthesis (n=13,770), and cesarean section (n=2,962). RESULTS: The predictive power of the new model versus the NNIS index was 0.75 versus 0.62 for reconstruction of the aorta (P<.01), 0.78 versus 0.58 for femoropopliteal or femorotibial bypass (P<.001), 0.69 versus 0.62 for colectomy (P<.001), 0.64 versus 0.56 for primary total hip prosthesis arthroplasty (P<.001), and 0.70 versus 0.54 for cesarean section (P<.001). CONCLUSION: Data available from hospital information systems can be used to develop models that are better at predicting the risk of surgical site infection than the NNIS risk index. Additional data collection may be indicated for certain procedures--for example, total hip prosthesis arthroplasty.

Aged↗

Classification and clinical course of low-grade non-Hodgkin's lymphomas with overview of therapy.

Low-grade non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) presents a formidable treatment challenge to oncologists. This review evaluates the various methods of disease and patient management. The natural history of various subtypes of low-grade NHL and the classification according to the National Cancer Institute Working Formulation are discussed in this review. Additionally, the various therapies in use; radiotherapy alone and combined with chemotherapy, chemotherapy with single alkylating agents such as chlorambucil and combination therapies, autologous and allogenic bone marrow transplantation, and therapy with purine analogs, such as chlorodeoxyadenosine and fludarabine. Patient survival in various studies using these treatment modalities are discussed. Treatment options need to be combined with the use of prognostic models, such as the International Index for optimal care of this difficult-to-treat group of patients.

Humans↗

Favorable outcome of primary mediastinal large B-cell lymphoma in a single institution: the British Columbia experience.

BACKGROUND: Primary mediastinal large B-cell lymphoma (PMBCL) is a distinct clinico-pathological subtype of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). The optimal treatment is unknown, with some studies suggesting a superior outcome with dose-intensive chemotherapy regimens, and the role of radiotherapy remains ill-defined. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The British Columbia Cancer Agency lymphoma database was searched and records reviewed to identify those patients presenting with a prominent mediastinal mass and considered to be PMBCL based on the current REAL/WHO classifications. Patients were treated based on era-specific BCCA guidelines (1980-1992 MACOPB/VACOPB; 1992-2001 CHOP-type; 2001-present CHOP-R). Beginning in January 1998 involved-field radiotherapy was recommended to be routinely administered following chemotherapy. Prior to this, use of radiotherapy was individualized in advanced disease. RESULTS: In total, 153 patients with newly diagnosed PMBCL were identified between 28 July 1980 and 30 June 2003. The median age was 37 years (range 13-82) and the majority had stage I/II (74%), bulky mediastinal disease (75%). Overall (OS) and progression-free (PFS) survival at 5 years for the entire cohort were 75% and 69%, respectively. In direct comparison with a cohort of patients with DLBCL (n = 1273), OS (P = 10(-4)) and PFS (P = 0.0001) favored PMBCL. The age-adjusted International Prognostic Index (aaIPI) was not predictive of survival (P = 0.18). Five-year OS in patients < 65 years old treated with MACOPB/VACOPB, CHOP-R and CHOP-type was 87%, 81% and 71% respectively (P = 0.048). In pair-wise survival comparisons, only MACOPB/VACOPB and CHOP-type treated patients were significantly different (P = 0.016). In Cox multiple regression analysis, poor performance status remained the only predictor of survival, with treatment received demonstrating a trend to worse outcome for patients treated with CHOP-type regimens (P = 0.09). In an intention-to-treat analysis comparing the era before radiotherapy was routinely administered with after, there was no significant difference in 5-year PFS (74% versus 62%; P = 0.09) or OS (78% versus 69%; P = 0.14). CONCLUSIONS: In this single institution, population-based retrospective study, we found that PMBCL patients have excellent survival rates and a distinct plateau is observed in PFS, in striking comparison to DLBCL. The aaIPI was not predictive of survival in this population, suggesting that other prognostic models may be better suited for risk stratification. Dose-intensified chemotherapy with MACOPB or VACOPB demonstrated a trend to superior outcome over CHOP-type chemotherapy. However, further randomized studies are needed and the impact of rituximab on these comparisons must be considered. Finally, the routine addition of radiotherapy does not improve survival.

Adult↗

Construction of robust prognostic predictors by using projective adaptive resonance theory as a gene filtering method.

MOTIVATION: For establishing prognostic predictors of various diseases using DNA microarray analysis technology, it is desired to find selectively significant genes for constructing the prognostic model and it is also necessary to eliminate non-specific genes or genes with error before constructing the model. RESULTS: We applied projective adaptive resonance theory (PART) to gene screening for DNA microarray data. Genes selected by PART were subjected to our FNN-SWEEP modeling method for the construction of a cancer class prediction model. The model performance was evaluated through comparison with a conventional screening signal-to-noise (S2N) method or nearest shrunken centroids (NSC) method. The FNN-SWEEP predictor with PART screening could discriminate classes of acute leukemia in blinded data with 97.1% accuracy and classes of lung cancer with 90.0% accuracy, while the predictor with S2N was only 85.3 and 70.0% or the predictor with NSC was 88.2 and 90.0%, respectively. The results have proven that PART was superior for gene screening. AVAILABILITY: The software is available upon request from the authors. CONTACT: honda@nubio.nagoya-u.ac.jp

Algorithms↗

Risk factors for cardiovascular death after elective surgery under general anaesthesia.

A large epidemiological data set was used to identify 115 patients who died from a cardiovascular cause within 30 days of elective surgery under general anaesthesia. For each patient, a control was identified, matched for age (within 5 yr of the patient), sex, operation and consultant. Patients and controls were compared for cardiovascular risk factors in a matched analysis using conditional logistic regression, and a prognostic model was generated. Three risk factors were included in the final model: previous myocardial infarction (odds ratio 3.18 (95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.22-8.28), P = 0.018), history of hypertension (odds ratio 1.90 (0.99-3.62), P = 0.047) and renal failure (odds ratio 3.56 (1.04-12.10), P = 0.043).

Adult↗

Risk factors for cardiovascular death within 30 days after anaesthesia and urgent or emergency surgery: a nested case-control study.

The Oxford Record Linkage Study (an epidemiological database) was used to identify patients who died from a cardiovascular cause within 30 days of emergency or urgent surgery under general anaesthesia. Each case was paired with a control patient (matched for age within 10 yr of the patient, operation and consultant). Additional clinical information was sought from the patient's case notes. Cases and controls were compared for cardiovascular risk factors using conditional logistic regression analysis and a prognostic model was generated. Only one significant risk factor was identified in the final model: a history of cardiac failure (odds ratio 14.84; 95% confidence intervals 2.53-87.13; P = 0.003). Associations between a history of cerebrovascular accident or renal impairment and cardiovascular mortality were seen using univariate analysis but not after adjustment for confounding factors.

Adult↗

Predictors of mortality and morbidity in patients with chronic heart failure.

AIMS: We aimed to develop prognostic models for patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). METHODS AND RESULTS: We evaluated data from 7599 patients in the CHARM programme with CHF with and without left ventricular systolic dysfunction. Multi-variable Cox regression models were developed using baseline candidate variables to predict all-cause mortality (n=1831 deaths) and the composite of cardiovascular (CV) death and heart failure (HF) hospitalization (n=2460 patients with events). Final models included 21 predictor variables for CV death/HF hospitalization and for death. The three most powerful predictors were older age (beginning >60 years), diabetes, and lower left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) (beginning <45%). Other independent predictors that increased risk included higher NYHA class, cardiomegaly, prior HF hospitalization, male sex, lower body mass index, and lower diastolic blood pressure. The model accurately stratified actual 2-year mortality from 2.5 to 44% for the lowest to highest deciles of predicted risk. CONCLUSION: In a large contemporary CHF population, including patients with preserved and decreased left ventricular systolic function, routine clinical variables can discriminate risk regardless of EF. Diabetes was found to be a surprisingly strong independent predictor. These models can stratify risk and help define how patient characteristics relate to clinical course.

Adult↗