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At least 685 records · Page 38Linked to original sources
PubMed1998

Biomaterials: a forecast for the future.

The survivability half-life of prostheses made with current bio-inert materials is approximately 15 years, depending upon clinical applications. Bioactive materials improve device lifetime but have mechanical limitations. This paper proposes that biomaterials research needs to focus on regeneration of tissues instead of replacement. Alternatives are: use hierarchical bioactive scaffolds to engineer in vitro living cellular constructs for transplantation, or use resorbable bioactive particulates or porous networks to activate in vivo the mechanisms of tissue regeneration.

Biocompatible Materials↗
PubMedDate not supplied

[The follow-up and monitoring of forecasts: the case of asthma epidemics in Barcelona].

In this work we discuss several procedures of evaluation of time series models and analyze practical aspects of the management of a data base relative to a health information system devoted to the epidemiological surveillance and the detection of unusual values that could correspond to epidemic events. The analyzed statistical information corresponds to the time series of the number of emergency room admissions for asthma in several hospitals of Barcelona city, between the first of January of 1985 and the seventh of september of 1987. Among the three analyzed methods, the one based on the correlations of the one-step-ahead residuals (the second one) is the most specific and, furthermore, it doesn't require the previous definition of an epidemic day. In addition, this second procedure has less analytical and computational difficulty.

Asthma↗
PubMed2004

[What progress can be expected in the management of hypertension? Forecast from 1974 to 2034].

THE POSITIVE IMPACT OF TREATMENT: Antihypertensive treatments have clearly demonstrated their capacity to reduce cardiovascular mortality. The limits to the reduction in risk are imputable to insufficient early management, morbidity and poor compleance insufficiency of pharmacological treatments, absence of individualised adaptation to the causal pathology and inappropriate management of other cardiovascular risk factors. TO IMPROVE MANAGEMENT: Rather than creating more cardiovascular prevention Centres which only concern specific cases and research, it is fundamental to provide physicians, nurses and other health care workers with greater competence in hypertension and the management of cardiovascular risks. Conceptual changes are also necessary, particularly in that which concerns the end of the dichotomy between normotension and hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and normocholesterolemia and its individual and populational impact. PROMOTION OF NUTRITIONAL MEANS: Nutritional means should not be forgotten applied to accompany the whole pharmacological treatment of hypertension, they can be used for individual prevention and for reduction of the incidence of high blood pressure in the general population. NEW THERAPEUTIC STRATEGIES: Other than the search for antihypertensive drugs with greater efficacy and improved tolerance, several targets should be envisaged such as optimising the blockage of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system, inihibiting aldo-synthase. A CONSERVATIVE ATTITUDE: Although attractive, the individualisation of treatment based on genetic analysis will not be accessible to the majority of hypertensive patients. The attitude to be considered in 2004 consists above all in improving the use of available drugs at appropriate doses and especially in combinations at fixed-doses to allow for an easier therapeutic schedule.

Antihypertensive Agents↗
PubMed2000

Modelling and forecasting antimicrobial resistance and its dynamic relationship to antimicrobial use: a time series analysis.

To investigate the relationship between antimicrobial use and resistance in our hospital, we collected antimicrobial susceptibility and use data from existing microbiology laboratory and pharmacy databases for the period July 1st, 1991-December 31, 1998. The data was analyzed as time series and autoregressive integrated moving average (Box-Jenkins) and transfer function models were built. By using this method, we were able to demonstrate a temporal relationship between antimicrobial use and resistance, to quantify the effect of use on resistance and to estimate the delay between variations of use and subsequent variations in resistance. The results obtained for two antimicrobial-microorganism combinations: ceftazidime-gram-negative bacilli and imipenem-Pseudomonas aeruginosa, are shown as examples.

Anti-Bacterial Agents↗
PubMed2002

Dengue hemorrhagic fever epidemiology in Thailand: description and forecasting of epidemics.

Despite the use of a variety of control strategies, dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) control is a major and permanent challenge for public health services in Thailand and in Southeast Asia. In order to improve the efficiency of DHF control in Thailand, these activities have to concentrate on areas and populations at higher risk, which implies early identification of higher incidence periods. A retrospective study of spatial and temporal variations of DHF incidence in all 73 provinces of Thailand (1983-1995) allowed discrimination between seasonal (endemic) transmission dependent on climatic variations and vector density and non-seasonal (epidemic) transmission, mainly due to the occurrence of a new virus serotype in a population with low immunity. To identify epidemic months, which appear significantly clustered, a significant deviation from the monthly average incidence was defined. The occurrence of two consecutive epidemic months in a given area has a high probability (P = 0.66) of being followed by a cluster of 2-18 epidemic months (average: 7.7 months). This observation is proposed as a warning of epidemic outbreak enabling an early launch of control activities. As an example, when this method is retrospectively applied to the studied period, 11,388 province months (73 provinces x 156 months), 579 epidemic outbreaks (5.1% of the total) are identified. Control activities can thus be improved through early management and prevention of the 308,636 supplementary cases occurring during epidemics (37.0% of the total recorded).

Disease Outbreaks↗
PubMed2003

Performance of forecasting, warning and detection of malaria epidemics in the highlands of western Kenya.

On the 4th July 2002 a leading national newspaper in Kenya, the Daily Nation, ran the headline 'Minister sounds alert on malaria' in an article declaring the onset of epidemics in the highlands of western Kenya. There followed frequent media coverage with quotes from district leaders on the numbers of deaths, and editorials on the failure of the national malaria control strategy. The Ministry of Health made immediate and radical changes to national policy on treatment costs in the highlands by suspending cost-sharing. Development partners and non-governmental organisations also responded with a large increase in the distribution of commodities (approximately 500,000 US dollars) to support preventative strategies across the western highland region. What was conspicuous by its absence was any obvious effort to predict the epidemics in advance of press coverage.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

[Epidemiology of lung cancer in Spain and forecast for the future].

Lung cancer, a steadily growing problem, ranks as the first cause of tumor-related deaths in developed countries. The relation between lung cancer and smoking makes it a potentially avoidable disease. Found mainly in men, it has made alarming gains among women. The main prognostic factor is the possibility of receiving curative surgery; however, in real practice the diagnosis usually comes when the disease has reached an advanced stage, when only 20% can be treated surgically. Nonsurgical treatments based on chemo- and radiotherapy have not advanced appreciably in recent years, and 5-year survival is poor, estimated at only around 7% to 12% in Spain. Attempts must be made to improve preventive measures and early diagnosis in order to improve the prognosis for lung cancer patients.

Early Diagnosis↗
PubMed2003

Forecasting the geographical spread of smallpox cases by air travel.

Instituting air travel restrictions to slow the geographical spread of smallpox cases would have significant consequences and present serious logistical concerns. Public health decision makers must weigh the potential benefits of such restrictions against their negative impact. The goal of this research is to provide a basic analytical framework to explore some of the issues surrounding the use of air travel restrictions as a part of an overall containment strategy. We report preliminary results of a compartmental model for the inter-city spread of smallpox cases resulting from US domestic air travel. Although air traffic can be halted within hours as was shown following the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001, these results suggest that the consequences of halting domestic air travel may not be outweighed by public health benefits.

Aircraft↗