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PubMed1998

Modeling the future workforce of obstetrics and gynecology.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the current supply and distribution of obstetrician-gynecologists and project future supply under various scenarios. METHODS: A discrete actuarial supply model was developed, and practice patterns were analyzed. Supply projections under different scenarios, distributions, and practice profiles were examined. RESULTS: Women are expected to become the majority of practitioners by 2014. Continuation of current residency output will result in slow to no growth in obstetrician-gynecologist-to-female population ratios over the next 20 years. A minor (10%) reduction in specialty training would slow specialty growth over the next decade, followed by a slight reduction in supply. Services provided chiefly involve ambulatory reproductive health care, pregnancy, and surgical correction of conditions specific to the female genitourinary system. Even though the proportion of deliveries performed by midwives has increased and family practitioners have maintained their share, obstetrician-gynecologists provide the vast majority of obstetric care and virtually all services for perinatal complications. Generalist services represent relatively minor aspects of their practices. Care of the aged female population is highly fragmented among specialties; more than 50% of all aged Medicare beneficiaries who saw an obstetrician-gynecologist at least once failed to receive a majority of services from any one physician specialty. CONCLUSION: On the basis of trends in patient demographics and care patterns, obstetrician-gynecologists must resolve whether to provide more generalist office-based care, especially to the rapidly growing older female population, or to invest more intensively in surgical specialty care. The specialty's unique contributions to women's health should influence this decision.

Forecasting↗
PubMed2000

Workforce projections for subspecialists in obstetrics and gynecology.

OBJECTIVE: To project the future supply of practicing subspecialists in obstetrics and gynecology based on the most recent numbers of physicians entering fellowships. METHODS: A discrete actuarial model was developed, and supply projections were examined using 1999 subspecialty fellowship numbers from the American Board of Obstetrics and Gynecology. RESULTS: The numbers of obstetrician-gynecologists entering subspecialty fellowships in maternal-fetal medicine (MFM) and reproductive endocrinology-infertility (REI) declined sharply between 1994 and 1999. There was a slow increase in gynecologic oncology (GO) fellows. Projections show that the numbers of practicing MFM and GO subspecialists will double by 2020, but they will be serving a 20% larger female population in the United States. Numbers of practicing REI subspecialists will increase slowly. CONCLUSION: The number of fellows in GO continues to enlarge progressively though slightly, whereas those in MFM and REI have fallen sharply in recent years. Among four possible factors affecting growth or decline, the ones that seem most important are existing career opportunities for both generalist and subspecialist obstetrician-gynecologists and the length of subspecialty education.

Career Choice↗
PubMed1996

Do estimates of emergency physician workforce underestimate current needs?

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Two widely used formulas for calculating the number of practicing emergency physicians (EPs) are based on the total number of US emergency departments and patient visits. In this study we hypothesized that the number of physicians now working in EDs is significantly greater than the estimates yielded by these formulas. Therefore we attempted to determine the accuracy of these methods for predicting the true number of practicing EPs. We also examined the training, board certification, and distribution of EPs. METHODS: The EDs of all hospitals listed by the Missouri Hospital Association (MHA), excluding children's and psychiatric hospitals, were surveyed over a 9-month period in 1994 with regard to the number and board status of all physicians practicing in their EDs and the numbers of full-time equivalents (FTEs) required for adequate staffing. These numbers were compared with 1994 estimates for Missouri based on two common methods of calculation. RESULTS: Of 134 hospitals with EDs, 118 (88%) completed our survey. These EDs employed 458 full-time EPs and 690 part-time EPs, with 41% and 7% board-certified in emergency medicine, respectively. Board-certified emergency physicians were concentrated in large cities and at university hospitals and were sparsely represented in rural areas. Adequate staffing of these EDs required 677 FTEs, compared with estimates of 358 (formula A) and 555 (formula B). Previously published formulas underestimate the need for EPs in our state by 47% (formula A) or 18% (formula B). CONCLUSION: Current staffing estimates regarding EPs working in Missouri greatly underestimate actual staffing needs. Board-certified EPs are in severe shortage and are unequally distributed in Missouri. Extrapolated nationally, these estimates may negatively affect funding and available residency positions for emergency medicine.

Certification↗
PubMed1998

A study of the workforce in emergency medicine.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Emergency medicine has progressed significantly since its initial recognition as a medical specialty. Relatively little factual information is known, however, regarding who or how many physicians practice emergency medicine. The purpose of this study is to determine the total number of physicians practicing clinical emergency medicine during a specified period, to describe certain characteristics of those individuals, and to estimate the total number of full-time equivalents (FTEs), as well as the total number of individuals needed to staff those FTEs. METHODS: Data were gathered from a survey of a random sample of 2,062 hospitals drawn from a population of 5,220 hospitals reported by the American Hospital Association as having, or potentially having, an emergency department. The survey instrument addressed items such as descriptive data on the institution, enumeration of physicians in the ED, as well as the total number working during the period June 1, 1997, through June 14, 1997. Demographic data on the individuals were also collected. RESULTS: A total of 942 hospitals responded (a 45.7% return rate). These hospitals reported a total of 5,872 physicians were working during the specified period, or an average of 7.48 persons scheduled per institution. The physicians were scheduled for a total of 297,062 hours. The average standard for FTE was 40 clinical hours per week. This equates to 3,713 FTEs or 4.96 FTEs per institution. The ratio of persons to FTEs was 1.51:1. With regard to demographics, 83% of the physicians were men and 81% were white. Their average age was 42 years. As to professional credentials, 58% were emergency medicine-residency trained and 53% were board certified in emergency medicine; 46% were certified by the American Board of Emergency Medicine. CONCLUSION: Given that there are 4,945 hospitals with EDs and given that the data indicate there are 4.96 FTEs per ED, the total number of FTEs is projected to be 24,548 (standard error = 437). Given further that the data indicate a physician/FTE ratio of 1.51:1, we conclude that there are 36,990 persons (standard error = 683) needed to staff those FTEs. When adjusted for persons working at more than one ED, that number is reduced to 32,026.

Adult↗
PubMed2000

A threat to the public health workforce: evidence from trends in preventive medicine certification and training.

Evidence of a growing need for preventive medicine specialists is the congruence between needed competencies for practice in the current health care environment, as identified by the Council on Graduate Medical Education (COGME) and in other national reports, and the core competencies of preventive medicine residents. The total number of certified specialists in preventive medicine is 6091. The proportion of self-designated preventive medicine specialists among all U.S. physicians is on the decline and the greatest decline has been among those in public health (PH) and general preventive medicine (GPM). In addition, the total number of preventive medicine residents is on the decline, and the decline has been greatest among those training in PH and combined PH/GPM. One of the reasons for this decline has been inadequate funding due to the absence of Medicare graduate medical education (GME) financing for population-based vs. individual patient care services and meager and diminishing Title VII support. A paucity of faculty is apparent in medical schools with residency training and board certification in preventive medicine. Several actions may help reverse this trend and assure adequate numbers of preventive medicine specialists: expansion of Title VII to increase the number of residents receiving stipends and tuition, adding infrastructure support for faculty development and funding of demonstration projects in distance learning and in joint generalist/ preventive medicine residency training. Medicare GME reform should include recognition of population-based services and inclusion of preventive medicine residencies in provisions for "nonhospital-based" training and in up-weighting methodologies for primary care training. Expansion of Veterans Affairs, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, and Department of Defense support is also needed as is attention to resident debt reduction.

Aerospace Medicine↗
PubMed1999

[Trends in hospital anesthesiology-resuscitation workforce in the forthcoming years. Is a crisis about to happen?].

Due to a drastic decrease, by governmental regulations, of the number of trainees in medical specialties, only 113 anaesthesiologists have been trained annually from 1988 to 1998, versus 440 annually from 1978 to 1988. If this training rate remains unchanged the manpower will decrease in 2010 to the 1980 level. In the opposite, the number of anaesthetics increased from 3.5 millions in 1980 to about 8 millions in 1996. If governmental health care policy remains unchanged, a major shortage of anaesthesiologists is to be expected from 2010 on. This shortage will occur earlier if anaesthesiologists retire before the age of 65 years.

Age Factors↗
PubMed1999

Workforce dilemmas: a comparison of staffing in a generalist and a specialist intensive care unit.

Intensive care units are arguably one of the most costly resources a hospital has to maintain in terms of nursing staff, skills and technology. Given that the Government's agenda on quality remains one of obtaining cost-effective healthcare, it is imperative that nursing managers consider the implications of the new policy shift for how they currently provide services. The purpose in this paper is to compare the different staffing levels adopted by managers in generalized and neurosurgical intensive care in an acute hospital trust. The dilemmas facing managers making staffing decisions without any definitive guidelines for resourcing these specialized units are examined.

Cost-Benefit Analysis↗