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PubMed1997

A simulation model for the spread of bovine tuberculosis within New Zealand cattle herds.

Bovine tuberculosis, caused by Mycobacterium bovis, presents a major problem to New Zealand agriculture because of the risk that it poses to export-market access. New Zealand research has focused largely on the epidemiology of the disease in wildlife reservoirs, and relatively little is known about the dynamics of the disease in cattle. This study, therefore, investigates bovine tuberculosis (Tb) dynamics within cattle herds, by construction and application of a simple simulation model of disease transmission. The model was designed firstly to estimate rates of disease transmission within herds, and secondly to identify likely consequences of changes in herd Tb-testing policies. Both deterministic and stochastic versions of the model were used to achieve these aims. The model suggests that within-herd Tb transmission does occur and contributes to the reactor rates observed under annual herd testing regimens. The mass-action disease transmission coefficient (proportion of susceptible animals infected per unit time per infectious animal, i.e. not per diseased animal or per reactor), appears to be in the order of 2.7 x 10(-5) per cow per day for a typical herd of around 200 animals, resulting in a contact rate (number of potentially infectious contacts made per infectious cow per day) of about 0.0073. These are average estimates for both beef and dairy herds. Model results suggest that improving the sensitivity of the test used to diagnose bovine Tb would improve control in areas where wildlife reservoirs are absent but have little effect where they are present. Reducing the time between tests of herds on Tb-induced movement control from the current 6 months to 2 or 3 months reduces the average time a herd spends on movement control and hence national Tb prevalence. In the presence of wildlife reservoirs of infection, both the total number of tests and total reactors per unit time increase, but the extent depends on the level of external infection. In all scenarios examined, involving thousands of model runs in total, infection was invariably absent from the modelled herd by the time it was considered clear of Tb based on testing results. This suggests that the caudal fold test is a realistic measure of herd Tb status and that Tb is unlikely to persist in herds under current testing practices in the absence of anergic cattle or an external source of infection. Specificity of the caudal-fold test as used in practice was estimated to be greater than 99%.

Animals↗

PubMed2000

Biologically based pesticide dose estimates for children in an agricultural community.

Current pesticide health risk assessments in the United States require the characterization of aggregate exposure and cumulative risk in the setting of food tolerances. Biologic monitoring can aggregate exposures from all sources and routes, and can integrate exposures for chemicals with a common mechanism of action. Its value was demonstrated in a recent study of organophosphorus (OP) pesticide exposure among 109 children in an agricultural community in Washington State; 91 of the children had parents working in agriculture. We estimated individual OP pesticide doses from urinary metabolite concentrations with a deterministic steady state model, and compared them to toxicologic reference values. We evaluated doses by assuming that metabolites were attributable entirely to either azinphos-methyl or phosmet, the two OP pesticides used most frequently in the region. Creatinine-adjusted average dose estimates during the 6- to 8-week spraying season ranged from 0 to 36 microg/kg/day. For children whose parents worked in agriculture as either orchard applicators or as fieldworkers, 56% of the doses estimated for the spray season exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) chronic dietary reference dose, and 19% exceeded the World Health Organization acceptable daily intake values for azinphos-methyl. The corresponding values for children whose parents did not work in agriculture were 44 and 22%, respectively. The percentage of children exceeding the relevant reference values for phosmet was substantially lower (< 10%). Single-day dose estimates ranged from 0 to 72 microg/kg/day, and 26% of these exceeded the EPA acute reference dose for azinphos-methyl. We also generated dose estimates by adjustment for total daily urine volume, and these estimates were consistently higher than the creatinine-adjusted estimates. None of the dose estimates exceeded the empirically derived no-observable-adverse-effect levels for these compounds. The study took place in an agricultural region during a period of active spraying, so the dose estimates for this population should not be considered representative of exposures in the general population. The findings indicate that children living in agricultural regions represent an important subpopulation for public health evaluation, and that their exposures fall within a range of regulatory concern. They also demonstrate that biologically based exposure measures can provide data for health risk evaluations in such populations.

Agriculture↗

PubMed1989

Organizing principles for single-joint movements. II. A speed-sensitive strategy.

1. Normal human subjects made discrete flexions of the elbow over a fixed distance in the horizontal plane from a stationary initial position to a visually defined target. We measured joint angle, acceleration, and electromyograms (EMGs) from two agonist and two antagonist muscles. 2. Changes in movement speed were elicited either by explicit instruction to the subject or by adjusting the target width. Instructions always required accurately stopping in the target zone. 3. Peak inertial torques and accelerations, movement times, and integrated EMGs were all highly correlated with speed. We show that inertial torque can be used as a linking variable that is almost sufficient to explain all correlations between the task, the EMG, and movement kinematics. 4. When subjects perform tasks that require control of movement speed, they adjust the rate at which torque is developed by the muscles. This rate is modulated by the way in which the muscles are activated. The rate at which joint torque develops is correlated with the rate at which the agonist EMG rises as well as with integrated EMG. 5. The antagonist EMG shows two components. The latency of the first is 30-50 ms and independent of movement dynamics. The latency of the second component is proportional to movement time. The rate of rise and area of both components scale with torque. 6. We propose organizing principles for the control of single-joint movements in which tasks are performed by one of two strategies. These are called speed-insensitive and speed-sensitive strategies. 7. A model is proposed in which movements made under a speed-sensitive strategy are executed by controlling the intensity of an excitation pulse delivered to the motoneuron pool. The effect is to regulate the rate at which joint torque, and consequently acceleration, increases. 8. Movements of variable distance, speed, accuracy, and load are shown to be controlled by one of two consistent sets of rules for muscle activation. These rules apply to the control of both the agonist and antagonist muscles. Rules of activation lead to distinguishable patterns of EMG and torque development. All observable changes in movement kinematics are explained as deterministic consequences of these effects.

Elbow Joint↗

PubMed1998

Radiation protection recommendations as applied to the disposal of long-lived solid radioactive waste. A report of The International Commission on Radiological Protection.

(79) Waste, by definition, has no benefit. It should be viewed as one aspect of the beneficial practice that gave rise to it. Furthermore, radioactive waste management should be placed in the context of the management of society's waste in general. (80) A major issue in evaluating the acceptability of a disposal system for long-lived solid radioactive waste is that doses or risks may arise from exposures in the distant future. There is uncertainty surrounding any estimate of these doses or risks due to lack of knowledge about future conditions. Such exposures are treated as potential exposures as their magnitude depends on future processes and conditions that have probabilities associated with them. (81) Nevertheless, the Commission recognises a basic principle that individuals and populations in the future should be afforded at least the same level of protection from the action of disposing of radioactive waste today as is the current generation. This implies use of the current quantitative dose and risk criteria derived from considering associated health detriment. Therefore, protection of future generations should be achieved by applying these dose or risk criteria to the estimated future doses or risks in appropriately defined critical groups. These estimates should not be regarded as measures of health detriment beyond times of around several hundreds of years into the future. In the case of these longer time periods, they represent indicators of the protection afforded by the disposal system. (82 Constrained optimisation is the central approach to evaluating the radiological acceptability of a waste disposal system; dose or risk constraints are used rather than dose or risk limits. By this transition from limitation to optimisation, the needs of practical application of the radiological protection system to the disposal of long-lived solid waste disposal are met: determination of acceptability now for exposures that may occur in the distant future. Optimisation should be applied in an iterative manner during the disposal system development process and should particularly cover both site selection and repository design. (83) Two broad categories of exposure situations should be considered: natural processes and human intrusion. The latter only refers to intrusion that is inadvertent. The radiological implications of deliberate intrusion into a repository are the responsibility of the intruder. Assessed doses or risks arising from natural processes should be compared with a dose constraint of 0.3 mSv per year or its risk equivalent of around 10(-5) per year. With regard to human intrusion, the consequences from one or more plausible stylized scenarios should be considered in order to evaluate the resilience of the repository to such events. (84) The Commission considers that in circumstances where human intrusion could lead to doses to those living around the site sufficiently high that intervention on current criteria would almost always be justified, reasonable efforts should be made at the repository development stage to reduce the probability of human intrusion or to limit its consequences. In this respect, the Commission has previously advised that an existing annual dose of around 10 mSv per year may be used as a generic reference level below which intervention is not likely to be justifiable. Conversely, an existing annual dose of around 100 mSv per year may be used as a generic reference level above which intervention should be considered almost always justifiable. Similar considerations apply in situations where the thresholds for deterministic effects in relevant organs are exceeded. (85) Compliance with the constraints can be assessed by utilising either an aggregated risk-oriented approach, with a risk constraint, or a disaggregated dose/probability approach, with a dose constraint, or a combination of both. A similar level of protection can be achieved by any of these approaches; however, more information may

Hazardous Waste↗