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A model for evolution and extinction.

We present a model for evolution and extinction in large ecosystems. The model incorporates the effects of interactions between species and the influences of abiotic environmental factors. We study the properties of the model by approximate analytic solution and also by numerical simulation, and use it to make predictions about the distribution of extinctions and species lifetimes that we would expect to see in real ecosystems. It should be possible to test these predictions against the fossil record. The model indicates that a possible mechanism for mass extinction is the coincidence of a large coevolutionary avalanche in the ecosystem with a severe environmental disturbance.

Animals↗

Active electrogenesis of command neurons of defense behavior of the snail during conditioning.

A change in the active electrogenesis of command neurons of the defensive closing of the spiracle of the edible snail during the development, extinction, and repeat development of a classical conditioned defense reflex in response to tactile stimulation is described in this study; the tactile stimulation of another point of the body served as the differential stimulus. As the biological significance of the conditional stimulus increased as the result of training, the excitability of the command neurons in response to this stimulus increased. At the same time, the neurons manifested reduced excitability in response to the differential stimulus. The possible mechanisms of the rapid reorganization of the excitability of the neurons and the functional significance of the change in the generation threshold of the AP are discussed.

Aggression↗

Nutrients and toxin producing phytoplankton control algal blooms - a spatio-temporal study in a noisy environment.

A phytoplankton-zooplankton prey-predator model has been investigated for temporal, spatial and spatio-temporal dissipative pattern formation in a deterministic and noisy environment, respectively. The overall carrying capacity for the phytoplankton population depends on the nutrient level. The role of nutrient concentrations and toxin producing phytoplankton for controlling the algal blooms has been discussed. The local analysis yields a number of stationary and/or oscillatory regimes and their combinations. Correspondingly interesting is the spatio-temporal behaviour, modelled by stochastic reaction-diffusion equations. The present study also reveals the fact that the rate of toxin production by toxin producing phytoplankton (TPP) plays an important role for controlling oscillations in the plankton system. We also observe that different mortality functions of zooplankton due to TPP have significant influence in controlling oscillations, coexistence, survival or extinction of the zoo-plankton population. External noise can enhance the survival and spread of zooplankton that would go extinct in the deterministic system due to a high rate of toxin production.

Animals↗

A model for HIV in Asia.

A model is proposed in which the spread of HIV/AIDS in the community is mainly due to the sexual interaction between a core group of female prostitutes and young unmarried males. Several threshold parameters are obtained that determine persistence of endemic proportions, persistence of total population, and the persistence of infective population given the extinction of endemic proportions in a population tending to infinity. Conditions are given for the existence of multiple endemic equilibria as well as the existence of multiple stable equilibria with separatrix and their asymptotic behavior and biological significance are discussed. In all cases, global analysis is accompanied by bifurcation diagrams, and numerical examples are provided for some particular cases of interest. This model was proposed with the recent rapid growth of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Asia in mind.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗

Extinction risk of a meta-population: aggregation approach.

Aggregation of variables of a complex mathematical model with realistic structure gives a simplified model which is more suitable than the original one when the amount of data for parameter estimation is limited. Here we explore use of a formula derived for a single unstructured population (canonical model) in predicting the extinction time for a population living in multiple habitats. In particular we focus multiple populations each following logistic growth with demographic and environmental stochasticities, and examine how the mean extinction time depends on the migration and environmental correlation. When migration rate and/or environmental correlation are very large or very small, we may express the mean extinction time exactly using the formula with properly modified parameters. When parameters are of intermediate magnitude, we generate a Monte Carlo time series of the population size for the realistic structured model, estimate the "effective parameters" by fitting the time series to the canonical model, and then calculate the mean extinction time using the formula for a single population. The mean extinction time predicted by the formula was close to those obtained from direct computer simulation of structured models. We conclude that the formula for an unstructured single-population model has good approximation capability and can be applicable in estimating the extinction risk of the structured meta-population model for a limited data set.

Animals↗

Extinction risk, coloured noise and the scaling of variance.

The impact of temporally correlated fluctuating environments (coloured noise) on the extinction risk of populations has become a main focus in theoretical population ecology. In this study we particularly focus on the extinction risk in strongly correlated environments. Here, we found that, in contrast to moderate auto-correlation, the extinction risk was highly dependent on the process of noise generation, in particular on the method of variance scaling. Such scaling is commonly applied to avoid variance-driven biases when comparing the extinction risk under white and coloured noise. We show that for strong auto-correlation often-used scaling techniques lead to a high variability in the variances of the resulting time series and thus to deviations in the subsequent extinction risk. Therefore, we present an alternative scaling method that always delivers the target variance, even in the case of strong auto-correlation. In contrast to earlier techniques, our very intuitive method is not bound to auto-regressive processes but can be applied to all types of coloured noises. We strongly recommend our method to generate time series when the target of interest is the effect of noise colour on extinction risk not obscured by any variance effects.

Animals↗

Swedish inactivated polio vaccine: laboratory standardization and clinical experience over a 30-year period.

Swedish inactivated polio vaccines have contained per single human dose a mean amount of viral antigen equivalent to 1 x 10(7.5) CCID50 of type 1, 1 x 10(7.4) of type 2 and 1 x 10(7.8) of type 3 produced on primary monkey kidney cells. Potency tests were made in comparison with an equivalent amount of live virus suspension of all three types. Validation of tests has been based on the response to type 1 only. Based on clinical experience with vaccine lots from 1957 and the establishment of the second live reference virus suspension in 1966, the minimum limit of immune response in guinea-pigs--expressed in extinction values--was decided as 1.5 for type 1 and type 3, and 1.0 for type 2. The potency test method used since 1959 in Sweden was two subcutaneous injections 2 weeks apart using 10 guinea-pigs per dilution and blood collected 1 week thereafter. Potency tests made according to European Pharmacopoeia revealed a somewhat lower value for type 2. D-antigen content in Swedish vaccines was low, however, the Swedish vaccine has protected against many episodes or outbreaks of wild virus in Sweden and immunized individuals elsewhere in the world. For the Swedish population a clear-cut clinical motivation for requiring a higher potency for type 2 as required in the European Pharmacopoeia or increased levels of D-antigen in the final product has not been presented. It was concluded that the European Pharmacopoeia method did not distinguish between doses of 0.5-1.0 ml. The minimum limit extinction value for type 2, i.e. 2.0 seemed to high.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Animals↗

Conservation and control strategies for the wolf (Canis lupus) in western Europe based on demographic models.

Securing the long-term acceptance of large carnivores such as the wolf (Canis lupus) in Europe and North America raises a difficult challenge to conservation biologists: planning removals to reduce depredations on livestock while ensuring population viability. We use stochastic-stage-structured population models to investigate wolf population dynamics and to assess alternative management strategies. Among the various management strategies advocated by agencies, zoning that involves eliminating wolves outside a restricted area should be designed with caution, because probabilities of extinction are extremely sensitive to the maximum number of packs that a zone can support and to slight changes in stage specific survival probabilities. In a zoned population, viability is enhanced more by decreasing mortality rates in all classes than by increasing wolf zone size. An alternative to zoning is adaptive management, where there is no limit on pack number but population control can be operated whenever some predefined demographic conditions are met. It turns out that an adaptive management strategy that removes a moderate percentage (10%) of the population following each year of more than 5% of total population growth would provide visible actions addressing public concerns while keeping extinction probability low.

Animals↗

Extinction from a paleontological perspective.

Extinction of widespread species is common in evolutionary time (millions of years) but rare in ecological time (hundreds or thousands of years). In the fossil record, there appears to be a smooth continuum between background and mass extinction; and the clustering of extinctions at mass extinctions cannot be explained by the chance coincidence of independent events. Although some extinction is selective, much is apparently random in that survivors have no recognizable superiority over victims. Extinction certainly plays an important role in evolution, but whether it is constructive or destructive has not yet been determined.

Adaptation, Biological↗

Extreme reversed sexual size dimorphism in the extinct New Zealand moa Dinornis.

The ratite moa (Aves; Dinornithiformes) were massive graviportal browsers weighing up to 250 kg (ref. 1) that dominated the New Zealand biota until their extinction approximately 500 yr ago. Despite an extensive Quaternary fossil record, moa taxonomy remains problematic and currently 11 species are recognized. Three Dinornis species were found throughout New Zealand and differed markedly in size (1-2 m height at back) and mass (from approximately 34 to 242 kg). Surprisingly, ancient mitochondrial DNA sequences show that the three species were genetically indistinguishable within each island, but formed separate North and South Island clades. Here we show, using the first sex-linked nuclear sequences from an extinct species, that on each island the three morphological forms actually represent just one species, whose size varied markedly according to sex and habitat. The largest females in this example of extreme reversed sexual size dimorphism were about 280% the weight and 150% the height of the largest males, which is unprecedented among birds and terrestrial mammals. The combination of molecular and palaeontological data highlights the difficulties of analysing extinct groups, even those with detailed fossil records.

Animals↗

The effect of salts on catecholamine fluxes and adenosine triphosphatase activity in storage vesicles from the adrenal medulla.

1. Influx and efflux of catecholamine and adenosine triphosphatase activity in storage vesicles from the adrenal medulla were studied with dl-[(14)C]adrenaline in different media. 2. The lowest values for flux and adenosine triphosphatase activity were observed in sucrose media in which an ATP-dependent influx of catecholamine compensated for an efflux of the same magnitude. Efflux in the presence or absence of ATP was similar. 3. In media containing sodium succinate or glutarate adenosine triphosphatase activity was higher and the ATP-dependent influx of catecholamine was about twice that observed in iso-osmotic sucrose medium. In the presence of ATP influx and efflux of catecholamine were balanced; in its absence there was a net release of catecholamine, since efflux was more than twice the influx. Efflux in the presence or absence of ATP was similar. 4. In media containing sodium or potassium chloride and in the presence of ATP influx and adenosine triphosphatase activity were further enhanced, but in the absence of ATP there was no further increase in influx, since catecholamine was released with or without ATP at the same rate. Efflux was therefore twice as high in the presence of ATP as in its absence. 5. Sodium nitrate suppressed the ATP-dependent influx nearly completely, but caused a greatly enhanced efflux, which was twice as high in the presence of ATP as in its absence. 6. The extinction of vesicular suspensions remained unchanged in the presence of ATP under conditions where the catecholamine efflux was balanced by the influx. Under conditions where the efflux was not compensated by influx, the extinction of the suspensions decreased in the presence of ATP more than in its absence.

Adenosine Triphosphatases↗

Impacts and evolution: future prospects.

The discipline of astrobiology includes the dynamics of biological evolution. One of the major ways that the cosmos influences life is through the catastrophic environmental disruptions caused when comets and asteroids collide with a planet. We now recognize that such impacts have caused mass extinctions and played a major role in determining the evolution of life on Earth. The time-averaged impact flux as a function of projectile energy can be derived from lunar cratering statistics as well as the current population of near Earth asteroids (NEAs). Effects of impacts of various energies can be modeled, using data from historic impacts [such as the Cretaceous-Tertiary (KT) impactor 65 million years ago] and the observed 1994 bombardment of Jupiter by fragments of Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9. It is of particular interest to find from such models that the terrestrial environment is highly vulnerable to perturbation from impacts, so that even such a small event as the KT impact (by a projectile 10-15 km in diameter) can lead to a mass extinction. Similar considerations allow us to model the effects of still smaller (and much more likely) impacts, down to the size of the asteroid that exploded over Tunguska in 1908 (energy approximately 10 megatons). Combining the impact flux with estimates of environmental and ecological effects reveals that the greatest contemporary hazard is associated with impactors near 1 million megatons in energy (approximately 2 km in diameter for an asteroid). The current impact hazard is significant relative to other natural hazards, and arguments can be developed to illuminate a variety of public policy issues. The first priority in any plan for defense against impactors is to survey the population of Earth-crossing NEAs and project their orbits forward in time. This is the purpose of the Spaceguard Survey, which has already found more than half of the NEAs >1 km in diameter. If there is an NEA on a collision course with Earth, it can be discovered and the impact predicted with decades or more of warning. It is then possible to consider how to deflect or disrupt the NEA. Unlike other natural hazards, the impact risk can be largely eliminated, given sufficient advanced knowledge to take action against the threatening projectile.

Directed Molecular Evolution↗

High level of cryptic species diversity revealed by sympatric lineages of Southeast Asian forest frogs.

Amphibians tend to exhibit conservative morphological evolution, and the application of molecular and bioacoustic tools in systematic studies have been effective at revealing morphologically 'cryptic' species within taxa that were previously considered to be a single species. We report molecular genetic findings on two forest-dwelling ranid frogs from localities across Southeast Asia, and show that sympatric evolutionary lineages of morphologically cryptic frogs are a common pattern. These findings imply that species diversity of Southeast Asian frogs remains significantly underestimated, and taken in concert with other molecular investigations, suggest there may not be any geographically widespread, forest-dwelling frog species in the region. Accurate assessments of diversity and distributions are needed to mitigate extinctions of evolutionary lineages in these threatened vertebrates.

Amphibians↗

The theory of natural selection of Alfred Russel Wallace FRS.

Wallace's 1858 paper 'On the tendency of varieties to depart indefinitely from the original type' is often thought to present a theory of natural selection identical with that of Darwin. Examination of Wallace's argument shows that it is different from Darwin's because Wallace thought that an inferior variety could coexist with a superior variety until environmental deterioration forced the extinction of the inferior one. Other interpretations of Wallace's argument are re-examined in the light of this finding.

Animals↗

Nonstochastic variation of species-level diversification rates within angiosperms.

Variations in the origination and extinction rates of species over geological time often are linked with a range of factors, including the evolution of key innovations, changes in ecosystem structure, and environmental factors such as shifts in climate and physical geography. Before hypothesizing causality of a single factor, it is critical to demonstrate that the observed variation in diversification is significantly greater than one would expect due to natural stochasticity in the evolutionary branching process. Here, we use a likelihood-ratio test to compare taxonomic rate heterogeneity to a neutral birth-death model, using data on well-supported sister pairs of taxa and their species richness. We test the likelihood that the distribution of extant species among angiosperm genera and families could be the result of constant diversification rates. Results strongly support the conclusion that there is significantly more heterogeneity in diversity at the species level within angiosperms than would be expected due to stochastic processes. This result is consistent in datasets of genus pairs and family pairs and is not affected significantly by degrading pairs to simulate inaccuracy in the assumption of simultaneous origin of sister taxa. When we parse taxon pairs among higher groups of angiosperms, results indicate that a constant rates model is not rejected by rosid and basal eudicot pairs but is rejected by asterid and eumagnoliid pairs. These results provide strong support for the hypothesis that species-level rates of origination and/or extinction have varied nonrandomly within angiosperms and that the magnitude of heterogeneity varies among major groups within angiosperms.

Biological Evolution↗

Dilution/extinction of community phenotypic characters to estimate relative structural diversity in mixed communities.

Recent interest in microbial diversity has led to increased emphasis on the development of appropriate techniques. Structural diversity encompasses the number and distribution of separate or interacting biological entities responsible for a given function within the overall set of functions of a community. This study evaluated an approach for estimating the relative degree of structural diversity in heterotrophic microbial communities by dilution to extinction of community phenotypic traits. Serial dilutions of environmental samples (rhizosphere, stream) were tested for community phenotypic traits (i.e. carbon source respiration). The non-linear relationship between the number of positive responses (i.e. functional richness or R) and inoculum density in each sample dilution (I) fit the simple rectangular hyperbola model, allowing estimation of the maximal richness (R(max)) and the inoculum density at half-maximal richness (K(I)). The later term appears to be useful in assessing relative structural diversity as evidenced by significantly higher values for communities with higher predicted species diversity. The examination of community functional characteristics across a series of dilutions, particularly in conjunction with other techniques, may be a useful approach for the study of microbial diversity and related ecological parameters such as niche width and metabolic redundancy.

Journal Article↗

Species diversity and the evolution of behavioral controlling mechanisms.

One of the first things that we are impressed by is the great variety of animals, particularly their behaviors and their physiologies. With so many differences, are there any generalities? With the establishment of evolutionary theory, evidence of "unity in diversity" comes with discoveries of common anatomical features, the cell cycle, conservation of intermediary metabolism, and the genetic code, to name but a few. In vertebrates there appears to be a conservation of the neural circuits underlying sexual behavior, but it is still too early to state the extent to which this concept can be extended to the hormonal mechanisms underlying behavior. Much of our conceptual understanding of behavioral neuroendocrinology stems from extensive studies on relatively few species. When an evolutionary perspective is applied to behavioral neuroscience, the breadth and validity of our assumptions about the mechanisms that control species-typical behaviors are challenged. This is not the same thing as saying that there are few unitary explanations that apply to all mammals, amniotes, or even vertebrates. Considerable information has been gathered about the neuroendocrine bases of behavior in a few species, but to uncover truly broad generalizations, we must look with equal intensity and rigor at other organisms. The pattern of evolution is best illustrated in the diversity of organisms, and the ecological and evolutionary perspective illuminates the utility of various "experiments of nature." By studying (1) closely related species that live in different habitats, we can see if the adaptational responses are similar, and (2) distantly related species that live in the same habitat, we can see if the solutions are analogous. The unique qualities of each species also give us a deeper understanding of the constraints in fundamental processes. When basic conflicts exist, control mechanisms adapt or the species goes extinct. Interestingly, although the neural circuits themselves do not degenerate, they are either no longer used or coopted for other functions.

Animals↗

Clades versus clones in evolution: why we have sex.

Sexual reproduction predominates among organisms mainly because most evolutionary change is concentrated in speciation events, and asexual species cannot speciate in the normal sense. Asexual clones seldom diversify rapidly enough to overcome normal rates of extinction. In contrast, phylogenetic groups of sexual species (clades) commonly develop broad, heterogeneous adaptive zones rapidly enough to ensure survival.

Animals↗