SEARCH · PubMed Health
Explore indexed PubMed citations for clinical trials, systematic reviews and public health research. Read source abstracts and follow each citation to its original PubMed record.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
An approach is presented for making short-term predictions about the trajectories of chaotic dynamical systems. The method is applied to data on measles, chickenpox, and marine phytoplankton populations, to show how apparent noise associated with deterministic chaos can be distinguished from sampling error and other sources of externally induced environmental noise.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
More than 30 years ago, human beings looked back from the Moon to see the magnificent spectacle of Earth-rise. The technology that put us into space has since been used to assess the damage we are doing to our natural environment and is now being harnessed to monitor and predict diseases through space and time. Satellite sensor data promise the development of early-warning systems for diseases such as malaria, which kills between 1 and 2 million people each year.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
To monitor mortality rates from malignant melanoma we analysed all patients in Sweden (6,324) who died of malignant melanoma in 1953 through 1987. Age-standardised rates per 10(5) increased from 1.1 to 4.0 in men and from 1.0 to 2.6 in women. The average annual increase levelled off in men from 4.6% during 1953-1967 to 2.0% in 1978-1987; and in women from 3.7% to 0%. Multivariate analyses showed that the change in rates for men was mainly due to a birth-cohort effect, whereas in women the rates changed similarly in all age-groups in accordance with a time-period effect. The risk of dying of malignant melanoma increased in men for birth cohorts up to 1932, whereas in women the rise continued for cohorts born as late as 1947. The best-fitted multivariate models were extrapolated to the year 2007, among men a slight increase in mortality rates seemed likely, whereas among women the rates will probably remain unchanged.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
The author proposes improved methods of household modeling, using dynamic models rather than the headship rate method. "Reasons are discussed why this method has been criticised in recent years.... The advantages of dynamic models are discussed, and a number of alternative dynamic models of household formation and dissolution are presented. The data source used is the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys 1% longitudinal study, which contains linked information on 500,000 people in the 1971 and 1981 England and Wales Censuses of Population."
In 1906 the great San Francisco earthquake and fire destroyed much of the city. As we approach the 100-year anniversary of that event, a critical concern is the hazard posed by another such earthquake. In this article, we examine the assumptions presently used to compute the probability of occurrence of these earthquakes. We also present the results of a numerical simulation of interacting faults on the San Andreas system. Called Virtual California, this simulation can be used to compute the times, locations, and magnitudes of simulated earthquakes on the San Andreas fault in the vicinity of San Francisco. Of particular importance are results for the statistical distribution of recurrence times between great earthquakes, results that are difficult or impossible to obtain from a purely field-based approach.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Age-related changes in functional status can be summarized by active life expectancy (ALE) measures. ALE is useful in assessing efforts to improve function and in determining a population's service needs. ALE disaggregates total life expectancy (TLE) into components representing degree and type of impairment. We illustrate the calculation of two ALE measures and their relations to health inputs and service use. First, scores are calculated from 27 measures of function for persons 65 and over, as reported in the National Long Term Care Survey (NLTCS). The scores are then used to calculate the two ALE measures. Results are compared to ALE calculated from the 1982, 1984, and 1989 NLTCS.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.