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PubMed1992

Predictors of two-year post-hospitalization mortality among elderly veterans in a study evaluating a geriatric consultation team.

OBJECTIVE: To determine predictors of 2-year post-hospitalization mortality in a cohort of elderly hospitalized patients originally assembled to assess the impact of a Geriatric Consultation Team (GCT). DESIGN: Two-year follow-up of an inception cohort. SETTING: University-affiliated tertiary care VA Medical Center. PATIENTS: One hundred sixty-seven veterans age 75 or older discharged following hospitalization on medical, surgical, or psychiatry services but not intensive care units. INTERVENTION: None specifically studied here though cohort was previously part of randomized control trial of a Geriatric Consultation Team. MEASUREMENT: Mortality during 2 years of post-hospitalization follow-up. RESULTS: Two-year post-hospitalization mortality was 28 percent with no difference between the original GCT and control groups. For the entire sample, age, mental status, admission or discharge ADLs (but not change in ADL status), number of admission problems, number of discharge diagnoses, and discharge site were significant predictors of mortality in univariate analysis. Only discharge ADLs and discharge site remained significant in multivariate analysis. CONCLUSION: Measures of ADLs during hospitalization are stronger predictors of mortality following hospitalization than disease diagnoses. Impaired ADLs and placement other than at home are significant predictors of mortality, suggesting that the decision for nursing home placement contains other independently predictive information within it and/or that the subsequent nursing home period produces excess mortality. As had been indicated in short-term follow-up, there was no survival advantage for the Geriatric Consultation Group.

Activities of Daily Living↗

PubMed1995

Predictors of 2-year mortality among older male veterans on a geriatric rehabilitation unit.

OBJECTIVE: To determine if nutritional parameters and discharge setting are associated with mortality in older male veterans on a Geriatric rehabilitation unit (GRU). DESIGN: Two-year follow-up of sequential admissions to the GRU who had laboratory studies completed on admission to the acute hospital and on transfer to and discharge from the GRU. SETTING: University-affiliated VA medical center. PATIENTS: Eighty-three consecutive older male veterans admitted to the GRU. MEASUREMENT: Mortality during a period of 2 years post-discharge. MAIN RESULTS: In a univariate analysis, predictors of mortality were serum albumin level < or = 3.5 g/dL on admission to the GRU (P = .01), moderate or severe Nutritional Status Score (P = .03), discharge to a place other than home (P = .01), and use of antibiotics while on the GRU (P = .05). Discharge albumin remained the single significant predictor of mortality in a multivariate analysis (P = .005). CONCLUSIONS: Serum albumin is the strongest predictor of 2-year post-hospitalization mortality of older patients cared for on a GRU. Other predictors were presence of infection, Nutritional Status Score of moderate or severe compromise, and discharge to a place other than home.

Aged↗

PubMed1997

Predictors of pressure ulcer healing among long-term care residents.

OBJECTIVES: To identify predictors of pressure ulcer healing among long-term care residents. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) long-term care facilities. PARTICIPANTS: All long-term care residents with a pressure ulcer on April 1, 1993, who remained institutionalized as of October 1, 1993. Patients and pressure ulcer status were identified from the Patient Assessment File, a VA administrative database. MEASUREMENTS: Pressure ulcers were considered healed if patients were without an ulcer on October 1, 1993. Predictors of pressure ulcer healing were selected from among patient characteristics in the Patient Assessment File. RESULTS: Pressure ulcers were present in 7.7% of the long-term care residents institutionalized as of April 1, 1993. Among the 819 pressure ulcer patients remaining institutionalized as of October 1, 1993, ulcers had healed in 442 (54.0%). Seventy-two percent of patients with Stage 2 ulcers were ulcer-free at 6 months, compared with 45.2% of patients with Stage 3 ulcers and 30.6% of those with Stage 4 ulcers (P < .001). Significant (P < .05) independent predictors of healing included pressure ulcer size (Odds ratio (OR) = 5.2 for Stage 2 ulcers, OR = 1.5 for Stage 3 ulcers), older age (OR = 1.5), and receiving rehabilitation services (OR = 1.3 for each additional type of therapy). Both immobility (OR = .3) and incontinence (OR = .7) were associated with ulcers not healing. CONCLUSIONS: Most Stage 2 pressure ulcers, and many larger ulcers encountered in long-term care settings will heal. Baseline patient characteristics are important predictors of healing. Interventions may then be targeted at patients whose ulcers are unlikely to heal, and observed facility performance may be compared with expected outcomes.

Activities of Daily Living↗

PubMed1999

Incidence of and predictors for chronic disability in activities of daily living among older people in Taiwan.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the incidence of chronic activities of daily living (ADL) disability and to analyze the sociodemographic, health status, adverse lifestyle, and leisure-time physical activity predictors for chronic ADL disability. DESIGN: We recruited a cohort of community-dwelling older people in Taipei, Taiwan, who were not ADL disabled in August 1993, and we followed them until August 1996. SETTINGS AND PARTICIPANTS: The study subjects were 1321 community-dwelling people aged 65 years or older who were ADL intact at the initial interview in August 1993. The study sample was a subset of a probability sample (n = 1583) randomly selected from household registrations in the four districts of the Taipei metropolitan area. MEASUREMENTS: Baseline information regarding various factors potentially associated with the development of chronic ADL disability was assessed and collected at the beginning of the study. Study participants were assessed annually for ADL function by a structured home interview using a six-item scale. Participants who were unable to perform independently at least one of the six items--eating, bathing, dressing, toileting, transfers, and walking inside the house--for more than 3 months were considered chronically ADL disabled. Cox proportional hazard regression models were utilized to examine the independent effect of the potential predictors on risk of chronic ADL disability. RESULTS: During the 3-year study period, 145 (11.0%) participants developed chronic ADL disability, 58 (4.4%) participants were lost to follow-up, and 83 (6.3%) participants died. Multiple hazard regression analysis showed that individuals aged 70 to 79 years or older than age 80 had increased risk of ADL disability (relative risk: 2.05 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.35-3.11) and 3.89 (95%CI, 2.33-6.50), respectively) compared with those participants younger than age 70. Risk of chronic ADL disability was inversely associated with routine exercise (RR = 0.52; 95% CI, 0.39-0.68). CONCLUSIONS: Age is the most significant predictor of chronic ADL disability. Lack of routine exercise is also a significant predictor of ADL disability in older adults.

Activities of Daily Living↗

PubMed2004

Predictors of adherence to the use of hip protectors in nursing home residents.

OBJECTIVES: To assess predictors of hip-protector use in nursing home residents under usual-care conditions and after intervention consisting of structured education of nurses and nursing home residents and provision of free hip protectors. DESIGN: Nested cohort analyses within a cluster randomized, controlled trial with 18 months follow-up. SETTING: Forty-nine nursing home clusters in Hamburg, Germany. PARTICIPANTS: Residents with at least one fall during the study period (intervention group, n=237; usual-care group, n=274). MEASUREMENTS: Use of hip protector while falling. Regression analyses were performed for each of the two cohorts of fallers using the time to the first fall without hip protector as the dependent variable. Predefined nursing home cluster-related parameters (center, staffing ratio, proportion of registered nurses in nursing staff, hip-protector use before study period) and resident-related parameters (sex, history of falls and fractures, fear of falling, urinary incontinence, use of walking aid, degree of disablement) were considered as explanatory variables. RESULTS: Under usual care, 97% of fallers (n=266), compared with 62% (n=148) in the intervention group, experienced at least one fall without hip protection. Using Cox proportional hazards models with and without frailty parameter (random cluster effect), the following predictors were identified: intervention group: use of walking aid, hazard ratio (HR)=1.53 (95% confidence interval (CI):0.98-2.39) and no urinary incontinence, HR=1.47 (95% CI:1.03-2.09); usual care: nursing staff per 10 residents, HR=0.78 (95% CI=0.63-0.96); high degree of disablement, HR=1.38 (95% CI=1.06-1.80); strong fear of falling, HR=0.78 (95% CI=0.60-1.02). The nursing home cluster was a significant predictor in the control group (P=.029), but not in the intervention group (P=.100). CONCLUSION: Only a few and weak predictors of hip-protector use of questionable relevance could be identified in both groups. Future research should concentrate on the implementation of interventions of proven efficacy, such as provision of hip protectors combined with structured education of staff and residents.

Accidental Falls↗

PubMed1992

Incidence and predictors of syncope in paced patients with sick sinus syndrome.

UNLABELLED: In spite of a normal pacemaker function, syncope still occurs in some patients with sick sinus syndrome (SSS). Causes often remain unknown. To identify predictors and etiologies of this bothersome symptom, we studied 507 patients who received atrial, ventricular, and dual-chamber pacemakers for SSS. During a mean follow-up of 62 +/- 38 months, actuarial incidence of syncope was 3% at 1 year, 8% at 5 years, and 13% at 10 years. Causes were vasovagal (18%), orthostatic hypotension (25.5%), rapid atrial tachyarrhythmias (11.5%), ventricular tachycardia (5%), acute myocardial ischemia (2.5%), and pacemaker/lead malfunction (6.5%). In 13 patients (29.5%), syncope remained unexplained. The only preimplant predictor for syncope was syncope as primary indication for pacemaker implant. Electrocardiographic correlation with bradycardia was not a predictor of relief of syncope during the follow-up. IN CONCLUSION: (1) syncope in paced patients with SSS has multiple etiologies and may be multifactorial; (2) the only predictor of syncope after pacemaker implant is the occurrence of preimplant syncope as the main indication for pacing; (3) extensive Holter monitoring is not useful to document bradycardiac origin of syncope nor to predict its recurrence; (4) SSS probably overlaps with other entities such as autonomic dysfunction, vasovagal syncope, carotid sinus hypersensitivity, and venous pooling, which would provide an explanation for recurrent syncope in patients with normal pacemaker function.

Actuarial Analysis↗

PubMed2000

Clinical and electrocardiographic predictors of recurrent atrial fibrillation.

Patients with frequent episodes of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF) are prone to develop permanent AF and have an increased thromboembolic risk. We have previously shown that P wave dispersion (P dispersion), defined as the difference between the maximum and the minimum P wave duration, and maximum P wave duration (P maximum) can distinguish patients with paroxysmal lone AF. The ability of those ECG markers and of other clinical and ECG variables to detect patients at risk for recurrent AF was tested in 88 patients, aged 64 +/- 12 years. All patients had a history of symptomatic episodes of AF during the last 2 years and had not previously received any antiarrhythmic prophylaxis. P maximum and P dispersion were calculated from a 12-lead surface ECG recorded in all patients during sinus rhythm. A computerized ECG system was used and P maximum and P dispersion were calculated on screen from the averaged complexes of all 12 leads. Age (P = 0.01), history of organic heart disease (P = 0.03), P maximum (P < 0.001), minimum P wave duration (P = 0.05), and P dispersion (P < 0.001) were found to be significant univariate predictors of recurrent AF, whereas only P maximum (P < 0.001) and age (P = 0.037) remained significant independent predictors of frequent AF paroxysms in the multivariate analysis. It is concluded that advanced age and prolonged P wave duration may be used as predictors of frequently relapsing AF. Therefore, simple AF predictors exist that could possibly distinguish the patients in whom prophylaxis with antiarrhythmic medicines should be instituted.

Adult↗

PubMed2003

Predictors and outcomes of frequent emergency department users.

OBJECTIVE: To identify predictors and outcomes associated with frequent emergency department (ED) users. METHODS: Cross-sectional intake surveys, medical chart reviews, and telephone follow-up interviews of patients presenting with selected chief complaints were performed at five urban EDs during a one-month study period in 1995. Frequent use was defined by four or more self-reported, prior ED visits. Multivariate logistic regression identified predictors of frequent ED visitors from five domains (demographics, health status, health access, health care preference, and severity of acute illness). Associations between high use and selected outcomes were assessed with logistic regression models. RESULTS: All study components were completed by 2,333 of 3,455 eligible patients (67.5%). Demographics predicting frequent use included being a single parent, single or divorced marital status, high school education or less, and income of less than $10,000 (1995). Health status predictors included hospitalization in the preceding three months, high ratings of psychological distress, and asthma. Health access predictors included identifying an ED or a hospital clinic as the primary care site, having a primary care physician (PCP), and visiting a PCP in the past month. Choosing the ED for free care was the only health preference predictive of heavy use. Illness severity measures were higher in frequent visitors, although these were not independently predictive in the multivariate model. Outcomes correlated with heavy use include increased hospital admissions, higher rates of ED return visits, and lower patient satisfaction, but not willingness to return to the ED or follow-up with a doctor. CONCLUSIONS: Frequent ED visits are associated with socioeconomic distress, chronic illness, and high use of other health resources. Efforts to reduce ED visits require addressing the unique needs of these patients in the emergency and primary care settings.

Acute Disease↗

PubMed2002

Predictors of chewing difficulty onset among dentate adults: 24-month incidence.

OBJECTIVES: Chewing ability is an important measure of health-related quality of life, yet few studies have examined predictors of chewing difficulty in community-based samples. This study describes longitudinal patterns of chewing difficulty and identifies predictors of chewing difficulty onset. METHODS: The Florida Dental Care Study (FDCS) was a longitudinal study of oral health and related behaviors. Interviews and a clinical exam were conducted with a sample that included persons who had at least one tooth and were aged 45 years or older (n = 873). The five-item chewing index of Leake (1990), with minor revision, was the outcome of interest. RESULTS: Approximately 21 percent of baseline participants reported chewing difficulty and about 34 percent reported difficulty during the study. Having infected or sore gums, loose tooth, loose crown or bridge, toothache pain, lower numbers of opposing pairs of teeth, dry mouth, and being female were significant predictors of incident chewing difficulty. CONCLUSIONS: Self-reported oral disease and tissue damage and toothache pain were strong predictors of decline in chewing ability. Additionally, women were identified as a high-risk group for incident chewing difficulty. Future research should elaborate further the pathways through which these factors affect oral function.

Aged↗

PubMed1994

Clinical predictors of acute radiological pneumonia and hypoxaemia at high altitude.

Fast breathing has been recommended as a predictor of childhood pneumonia. Children living at high altitude, however, may breathe faster in response to the lower oxygen partial pressure, which may change the accuracy of prediction of a high respiratory rate. To assess the usefulness of clinical manifestations in the diagnosis of radiological pneumonia or hypoxaemia, or both, at high altitude (2640 m above sea level), 200 children aged 7 days to 36 months presenting to an urban emergency room with cough lasting less than seven days were studied. Parents were interviewed and the children evaluated using standard forms. The results of chest radiographs and pulse oximetry obtained after clinical examination were interpreted blind. Radiological pneumonia and haemoglobin oxygen saturation < 88% were used as 'gold standards'. One hundred and thirty (65%) and 125 (63%) children had radiological pneumonia and hypoxaemia respectively. Crepitations and decreased breath sounds were statistically associated with pneumonia, and rapid breathing as perceived by the child's mother, chest retractions, nasal flaring, and crepitations with hypoxaemia. The best single predictor of the presence of pneumonia is a high respiratory rate, although the results are not as good as those reported by other studies. A respiratory rate > or = 50/minute had good sensitivity (76%) and specificity (71%) for hypoxaemia in infants. Hypoxaemia had a good sensitivity and specificity for pneumonia mainly in infants (83% and 73%, respectively). Logistic regression analysis showed that decreased or increased respiratory sounds and crepitations were associated with pneumonia, and that hypoxaemia is the best predictor when auscultatory findings are excluded. These results suggest that some clinical predictors appear to be less accurate in Bogota than in places at lower altitude, and that pulse oximetry can be used for predicting pneumonia.

Acute Disease↗

PubMed2026

Psychiatric and neurological predictors of early ADHD medication discontinuation across the lifespan: a multinational study.

BACKGROUND: Early discontinuation of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) medication is common and linked to worse outcomes. Identifying clinical predictors could aid personalised treatment yet evidence is inconsistent across ages and countries/regions. OBJECTIVE: Investigate psychiatric and neurological comorbidity as predictors of early ADHD medication discontinuation in new ADHD medication users across age groups, sex and countries/regions. METHODS: Using health records from eight countries/regions, we identified 1 000 411 (44% female) new ADHD medication users (2011-2020). Discontinuation was defined as a ≥180 day gap between dispensations. We examined 23 indicators of psychiatric or neurological comorbidity, severity and psychotropic medication use. Associations were estimated using Cox regression, pooled with random-effects meta-analyses and stratified by age-at-initiation and sex. FINDINGS: Discontinuation rates varied widely (children 19%-61%, adolescents 37%-68%, young adults 52-67%, adults 38%-68%). In pooled analyses, earlier discontinuation in children was predicted by intellectual disability, autism and use of psychotropic medications (HR range 1.32-1.51), while conduct/oppositional defiant disorder (CD/ODD) was protective (HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.94). In adolescents, no indicators remained statistically significant after multiple-testing control. In young adults, CD/ODD (HR 1.42, 95% CI 1.30 to 1.55), and in adults, schizophrenia (HR 1.25, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.44) and tic disorders (HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.46) predicted earlier discontinuation. Statistical heterogeneity was substantial, largely driven by US estimates. In meta-analyses excluding the USA, additional associations emerged. For example, in children, OCD and anxiety disorders predicted earlier discontinuation, while eating disorders and antidepressants/anxiolytics were protective in adults. Associations with schizophrenia, tic disorders and CD/ODD were no longer significant. Country-specific analyses showed similar association patterns, except in the USA, Hong Kong and the UK. Sex differences were limited. CONCLUSIONS: Children with neuropsychiatric comorbidity and related comedication are more likely to discontinue ADHD medication early, whereas few consistent predictors were seen from adolescence onwards. Marked cross-country variation, particularly in the USA, points to system-level influences on treatment patterns. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: Improving ADHD medication persistence will require consideration of healthcare context and age-specific strategies, including close monitoring for children with complex neuropsychiatric profiles, and consideration of broader factors in adolescents and adults, where clinical predictors were limited.

Humans↗

PubMed2003

Predictors of falls in a high risk population: results from the prevention of falls in the elderly trial (PROFET).

OBJECTIVES: The prevention of falls in the elderly trial (PROFET) provides evidence of the benefits of structured interdisciplinary assessment of older people presenting to the accident and emergency department with a fall. However, the service implications of implementing this effective intervention are significant. This study therefore examined risk factors from PROFET and used these to devise a practical approach to streamlining referrals from accident and emergency departments to specialist falls services. METHODS: Logistic regression analysis was used in the control group to identify patients with an increased risk of falling in the absence of any intervention. The derived predictors were investigated to see whether they also predicted loss to follow up. A second regression analysis was undertaken to test for interaction with intervention. RESULTS: Significant positive predictors of further falls were; history of falls in the previous year (OR 1.5 (95%CI 1.1 to 1.9)), falling indoors (OR 2.4 (95%CI 1.1 to 5.2)), and inability to get up after a fall (OR 5.5 (95%CI 2.3 to 13.0)). Negative predictors were moderate alcohol consumption (OR 0.55 (95%CI 0.28 to 1.1)), a reduced abbreviated mental test score (OR 0.7 (95%CI 0.53 to 0.93)), and admission to hospital as a result of the fall (OR 0.26 (95%CI 0.11 to 0.61)). A history of falls (OR 1.2 (95%CI 1.0 to 1.3)), falling indoors (OR 3.2 (95%CI 1.5 to 6.6)) and a reduced abbreviated mental test score (OR 1.3 (95%CI 1.0 to 1.6)) were found to predict loss to follow up. CONCLUSIONS: The study has focused on a readily identifiable high risk group of people presenting at a key interface between the primary and secondary health care sectors. Analysis of derived predictors offers a practical risk based approach to streamlining referrals that is consistent with an attainable level of service commitment.

Accidental Falls↗

PubMed1998

Assessment of symptomatic response as predictor of Helicobacter pylori status following eradication therapy in patients with ulcer.

BACKGROUND: Helicobacter pylori eradication therapy is routinely used for treating patients with peptic ulcer disease. AIMS: To assess the value of symptomatic response to H pylori eradication therapy as a marker of post-treatment H pylori status. PATIENTS AND METHODS: One hundred and nine dyspeptic patients with active duodenal or gastric ulceration association with H pylori infection had their symptoms measured by a validated questionnaire before and three months following H pylori eradication therapy. The symptomatic response was compared with post-treatment H pylori status as determined by the 14C urea breath test. RESULTS: An eradication rate of 84% was achieved. Of the 92 patients eradicated of H pylori, 47% experienced complete or near complete resolution of dyspepsia. Of the 17 patients in whom the infection was not eradicated, only one (6%) experienced resolution of dyspepsia. Resolution of dyspepsia was therefore a powerful predictor of eradication of H pylori with a predictive value of 98%. In contrast, persistence of dyspepsia was a weak predictor of persisting infection with a predictive value of only 25%. Excluding patients with endoscopic evidence of coexisting oesophagitis and/or retrosternal discomfort or reflux at initial presentation did not increase the predictive value of persisting dyspepsia for persisting infection. CONCLUSIONS: Complete resolution of dyspeptic symptoms is a powerful predictor of eradication of H pylori infection in ulcer patients. Persistence of symptoms is a weak predictor of persisting infection and patients with persisting dyspepsia must have their H pylori status rechecked to guide future management.

Adult↗

PubMed2004

Long term results of percutaneous balloon valvoplasty of congenital aortic stenosis: independent predictors of outcome.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate long term results and independent predictors of outcome of aortic valvoplasty. DESIGN: Retrospective follow up study. Independent predictors of outcome identified by multiple logistic regression. SETTING: Tertiary referral centre. PATIENTS: 269 consecutive patients treated at the median age of 8 months (0-23 years): 80 (30%) under 4 weeks, 59 (22%) between 4 weeks and 1 year, and 130 (48%) over 1 year. The follow up period was up to 14.8 years (median 5.3, in survivors 6.4 years). INTERVENTIONS: Percutaneous balloon valvoplasty with mean (SD) balloon to annulus ratio 0.97 (0.08). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Restenosis > or = 70 mm Hg, grade 3 aortic insufficiency, cusps disruption, surgery, death, and valvoplasty failure (significant restenosis or insufficiency or surgery or death). RESULTS: The mortality rate was 10.4% (n = 28), the restenosis rate was 16.7% (n = 45), significant insufficiency developed in 22.3% (n = 60), surgery was needed in 20.1% (n = 54), and "valvoplasty failure" occurred in 41.6% (n = 112) patients. Mean (SEM) survival probability 14.4 years after the procedure was 0.89 (0.02) and mean (SEM) probability of surgery-free survival was 0.50 (0.08). The independent predictors were as follows. For restenosis: small aortic annulus; for cusp disruption: large aortic annulus; for insufficiency: bicuspid aortic valve; for need for surgery: bicuspid aortic valve; for death: small aortic annulus, low left ventricular shortening fraction, and low sequential number of the valvoplasty; and for valvoplasty failure: small aortic annulus, bicuspid aortic valve, and high grade of mitral insufficiency. CONCLUSION: Independent predictors of unfavourable outcome are small aortic annulus, bicuspid aortic valve, poor function of left ventricle or mitral valve, and limited operator experience.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2005

Valve replacement in patients with critical aortic stenosis and depressed left ventricular function: predictors of operative risk, left ventricular function recovery, and long term outcome.

OBJECTIVES: To identify predictors of operative and postoperative mortality and of functional reversibility after aortic valve replacement (AVR) in patients with aortic stenosis (AS) and severe left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction. METHODS AND RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2000, 155 consecutive patients (mean (SD) age 72 (9) years) in New York Heart Association (NYHA) heart failure functional class III or IV (n = 138) and with LV ejection fraction (LVEF) < or = 30% underwent AVR for critical AS (mean (SD) valve area index 0.35 (0.09) cm2/m2). Thirty day mortality was 12%. NYHA class (3.7 (0.6) v 3.2 (0.7), p = 0.004), cardiothoracic ratio (CTR) (0.63 (0.07) v 0.56 (0.06), p < 0.0001), pulmonary artery systolic pressure (63 (25) v 50 (19) mm Hg, p = 0.03), and prevalence of complete left bundle branch block (22% v 8%, p = 0.03) and of renal insufficiency (p = 0.001) were significantly higher in 18 non-survivors than in 137 survivors. In multivariate analysis, the only independent predictor of operative mortality was a CTR > or = 0.6 (odds ratio (OR) 12.2, 95% confidence interval (CI) 5.4 to 27.4, p = 0.002). The difference between preoperative and immediate postoperative LVEF (early-DeltaEF) was > 10 ejection fraction units (EFU) in 55 survivors. In multivariate analysis, CTR (OR 5.95, 95% CI 3.0 to 11.6, p = 0.006) and mean transaortic gradient (OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.0 to 1.1, p < 0.05) were independent predictors of an early-DeltaEF > 10 EFU. During a mean (SD) follow up of 4.6 (3) years, 50 of 137 (36%) 30 day survivors died, 31 of non-cardiac causes. Diabetes (OR 3.8, 95% CI 2.4 to 6.0, p = 0.003), age > or = 75 years (OR 2.6, 95% CI 2.1 to 4.5, p = 0.004), and early-DeltaEF < or = 10 EFU (OR 0.96, 95% CI 0.94 to 0.97, p = 0.01) were independent predictors of long term mortality. Among 127 survivors, the percentage of patients in NYHA functional class III or IV decreased from 89% preoperatively to 3% at one year. The decrease in functional class was significantly greater in patients with an early-DeltaEF > 10 EFU than patients with an early-DeltaEF < or = 10 EFU (p = 0.02). In addition, the mean (SD) LVEF at one year was 53 (11)% in patients with an early-DeltaEF > 10 EFU and 42 (11)% in patients with early-DeltaEF < or = 10 EFU (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Despite a relatively high operative mortality, AVR for AS and severely depressed LVEF was beneficial in the majority of patients. Early postoperative recovery of LV function was associated with significantly greater relief of symptoms and longer survival.

Aged↗

PubMed2005

Predictors of poor mid-term health related quality of life after primary isolated coronary artery bypass grafting surgery.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the determinants of poor mid-term health related quality of life (HRQoL) at one year after primary isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). METHODS: 463 patients who underwent primary isolated CABG for multivessel disease and came for their annual follow up at the outpatient clinic during one year at Harefield Hospital, Middlesex, were approached to participate in the present study. Prospective clinical data were collected as part of the clinical care of the patients and were retrospectively analysed when the patients consented to participate in the study at their outpatient visit. After their consent they were given three HRQoL assessment questionnaires. Scores, together with clinical data, were analysed by both univariate and multivariate analyses with regard to poor HRQoL outcome. RESULTS: 437 (94.4%) patients consented to participate in the study and filled in the HRQoL questionnaires. Ten variables were identified in the univariate analysis as potential predictors of poor scores of the physical element of HRQoL; however, only three variables-gastrointestinal problems, congestive heart failure, and type D personality trait-predicted poor physical scores independently. Eleven variables were identified in the univariate analysis as potential predictors of poor scores of the mental element of HRQoL; however, only three variables-peripheral vascular disease, infective complications, and type D personality trait-predicted poor physical scores independently. CONCLUSION: Preoperative gastrointestinal problems, preoperative congestive heart failure, and type D personality trait were independent predictors of the poor physical component of HRQoL. Peripheral vascular disease, infective complications, and type D personality trait were independent predictors of the poor mental component of HRQoL. Interestingly, patients with type D personality were more than twice as likely to have poor physical HRQoL and more than five times as likely to have poor mental HRQoL.

Adult↗

PubMed1998

Predictors of event-free survival after percutaneous mitral commissurotomy.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the long term functional result after percutaneous mitral commissurotomy and identify the predictors of event-free survival following 10 years of experience. DESIGN: Analysis of clinical, echocardiographic, and haemodynamic variables at baseline and after the procedure by univariate and multivariate analyses (Cox model). SETTING: University hospital. PATIENTS: 532 consecutive patients receiving percutaneous mitral commissurotomy in the same institution. RESULTS: The mean (SD) follow up was 3.8 (4.0) years. Survival at 3, 5, and 7.5 years was 94%, 91%, and 83%, respectively; event-free survival was 84%, 74%, and 52%. Mitral valve anatomy was identified as the strongest independent predictor of event-free survival. Age, cardiothoracic ratio, mean pulmonary artery pressure, and mean echocardiographic mitral gradient after commissurotomy were also found to be independent predictors of long term functional results. Event-free survival was 92%, 84%, and 70% at 3, 5, and 7.5 years in patients with favourable anatomy (echo score = 1), 86%, 73%, and 34% in patients with intermediate anatomy (echo score = 2), and 45%, 25%, and 16% in patients with unfavourable anatomy (echo score = 3). In patients aged < or = 65 years, the event-free survival rate was 80%, 70%, and 45% at 3, 5, and 7.5 years v 52%, 38%, and 17% in patients aged > 65 years. CONCLUSIONS: The anatomical form of the mitral valve and the patient's age were the most powerful predictors of event-free survival. Patients with intermediate or unfavourable anatomy and those aged > 65 years have low 5 and 7.5 year event-free survival rates. This must be taken into account when discussing the indications for percutaneous mitral commissurotomy; immediate mitral valve replacement is a reasonable alternative to balloon mitral commissurotomy in patients with higher risk of functional deterioration after the procedure.

Age Factors↗

PubMed1999

Socioeconomic and demographic predictors of mortality and institutional residence among middle aged and older people: results from the Longitudinal Study.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: To identify socioeconomic and demographic predictors of long term mortality and institutional residence in old age, taking into account changes in socioeconomic and demographic circumstances between the 1971 and 1981 censuses. DESIGN: Multivariate logistic regression modelling of outcomes for 10 year age cohorts of each gender. The outcomes were death by 31 December 1992; being in an institution in 1991. SETTING: Members of the Longitudinal Study (a 1% sample of the British Census): 43,092 men and 50,839 women aged 55-74 in 1971. MAIN RESULTS: Being in rented accommodation and in a household without access to a car carried 35-45% higher mortality rate over 21 years and similar excess risk of being in an institution in 1991. Marital status and living arrangements were weaker predictors of death but being single was a major predictor of moving to an institution for men. Losing household access to a car was a strong factor for mortality for men and for institutionalisation for men aged 55-64 in 1971. The effects were weaker for women. Moving into rented accommodation was a predictor of both outcomes for women and of death for the younger cohort of men. People who started to live alone in the inter-census period were at reduced risk of dying. CONCLUSIONS: These results demonstrate persistence of inequalities in health related outcomes throughout old age, both in those with unfavourable circumstances in mid-life and in those who, in later life, have lost earlier advantages.

Aged↗