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Declining world fertility: trends, causes, implications.

This Bulletin examines the evidence that the world's fertility has declined in recent years, the factors that appear to have accounted for the decline, and the implications for fertility and population growth rates to the end of the century. On the basis of a compilation of estimates available for all nations of the world, the authors derive estimates which indicate that the world's total fertility rate dropped from 4.6 to 4.1 births per woman between 1968 and 1975, thanks largely to an earlier and more rapid and universal decline in the fertility of less developed countries (LDCs) than had been anticipated. Statistical analysis of available data suggests that the socioeconomic progress made by LDCs in this period was not great enough to account for more than a proportion of the fertility decline and that organized family planning programs were a major contributing factor. The authors' projections, which are compared to similar projections from the World Bank, the United Nations, and the U.S. Bureau of the Census, indicate that, by the year 2000, less than 1/5 of the world's population will be in the "red danger" circle of explosive population growth (2.1% or more annually); most LDCs will be in a phase of fertility decline; and many of them -- along with most now developed countries -- will be at or near replacement level of fertility. The authors warn that "our optimistic prediction is premised upon a big IF -- if (organized) family planning (in LDCs) continues. It remains imperative that all of the developed nations of the world continue their contribution to this program undiminished."

Africa↗

Genetic variation and phylogeography of central Asian and other house mice, including a major new mitochondrial lineage in Yemen.

The mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region and flanking tRNAs were sequenced from 76 mice collected at 60 localities extending from Egypt through Turkey, Yemen, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Nepal to eastern Asia. Segments of the Y chromosome and of a processed p53 pseudogene (Psip53) were amplified from many of these mice and from others collected elsewhere in Eurasia and North Africa. The 251 mtDNA types, including 54 new ones reported here, now identified from commensal house mice (Mus musculus group) by sequencing this segment can be organized into four major lineages-domesticus, musculus, castaneus, and a new lineage found in Yemen. Evolutionary tree analysis suggested the domesticus mtDNAs as the sister group to the other three commensal mtDNA lineages and the Yemeni mtDNAs as the next oldest lineage. Using this tree and the phylogeographic approach, we derived a new model for the origin and radiation of commensal house mice whose main features are an origin in west-central Asia (within the present-day range of M. domesticus) and the sequential spreading of mice first to the southern Arabian Peninsula, thence eastward and northward into south-central Asia, and later from south-central Asia to north-central Asia (and thence into most of northern Eurasia) and to southeastern Asia. Y chromosomes with and without an 18-bp deletion in the Zfy-2 gene were detected among mice from Iran and Afghanistan, while only undeleted Ys were found in Turkey, Yemen, Pakistan, and Nepal. Polymorphism for the presence of a Psip53 was observed in Georgia, Iran, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Sequencing of a 128-bp Psip53 segment from 79 commensal mice revealed 12 variable sites and implicated >/=14 alleles. The allele that appeared to be phylogenetically ancestral was widespread, and the greatest diversity was observed in Turkey, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Nepal. Two mice provided evidence for a second Psip53 locus in some commensal populations.

Animals↗

Frequency of spinocerebellar ataxia types 1, 2, 3, 6, and 7 in Australian patients with spinocerebellar ataxia.

The frequencies of various genetically defined spinocerebellar ataxias (SCAs) vary in different populations presumably due to founder effects. No data have been published on the Australian population. Although predominantly of Anglo-Celtic extraction, Australia has also received considerable influx from southeastern Europe and more recently eastern and southeastern Asia. We examined the frequency of mutations for SCA types 1, 2, 3, 6, and 7 in southeastern Australia. Of 88 pedigrees with multiple-affected members, SCA type 1 (SCA1) accounted for 16%, SCA2 for 6%, SCA3 for 12%, SCA6 for 17%, SCA7 for 2%, and 47% (41 pedigrees) were negative for each of SCA1, 2, 3, and 6. Twenty of the 41 negative pedigrees were also negative for dentatorubralpallidoluysian atrophy, and indeed dentatorubralpallidoluysian atrophy has not been reported in Australia. In addition, no pedigree information was available on a further four patients with SCA1, three patients with SCA2, three patients with SCA3, and three patients with SCA6. One SCA1 and two SCA2 patients had no other known affected family members. In total, of 63 pedigrees or individuals with positive tests, 30% were those with SCA1, 15% with SCA2, 22% with SCA3, 30% with SCA6, and 3% with SCA7. Judging by pedigree names, four of the nine SCA2 positive individuals/pedigrees were of Italian extraction, and four of the 14 SCA3 positive individuals/pedigrees were of Chinese descent, whereas only 1 of the 20 SCA1 positive individuals/pedigrees were non-Anglo-Celtic. These results are in accordance with the known ethnic composition of the Australian population and with gene frequencies in these constituent ethnic groups reported by others. The frequency of large-normal alleles for SCA1 and SCA3 in the population reflects the prevalence of these two diseases, supporting the hypothesis that disease alleles arise by expansion of large-normal alleles.

Alleles↗

[Dengue, arbovirus and migrations in the Indian Ocean].

An arbovirus requires a competent haematophagous arthropod for transmission from one vertebrate to another susceptible host. Air transportations allow quick transfers from place to place and the diffusion of potential vectors or infectious hosts. The merchandise transportation by containers allowed the diffusion of Ae. albopictus from Asia through Africa and America. Emerging arbovirusis may occur in zones where they do not exist. Dengue which originally was located in southeastern Asia, is the most important arbovirusis in the world. The occurrence of dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) in Asia and America, mostly in urban areas, increased the global concern about dengue. Likewise, cases of DHF are not reported in Africa and in the Indian Ocean southwestern islands. The principal vector of dengue, Aedes aegypti, was present during the dengue 1 outbreak in Comoros, in 1993. In the other islands, only few specimens of Ae. aegypti are observed, and described mostly as none anthropophilic forms. The role of Ae. albopictus as vector of dengue was suspected and reported during outbreaks in Seychelles and Réunion island in 1977-1978. Yellow fever, present in Africa mostly in restricted areas, is absent in Asia. Japanese encephalitis considered as an emerging disease in India could expand through the islands. Rift valley fever, with periodic epizootics in domestic ungulates in Africa, was described as a new disease in Madagascar in 1990-1991. Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever is also present in Madagascar. Humans can be infected by vector bite or by handling infectious animal products. The distribution of other viruses (West Nile, Sindbis, Wesselsbron or Chikungunya) is discussed.

Aedes↗

Phylogenetic analysis of Orientia tsutsugamushi strains based on the sequence homologies of 56-kDa type-specific antigen genes.

Close and distant relationship among 31 strains of Orientia tsutsugamushi (20, two, one and eight strains were isolated in Japan, Korea, China and southeast Asia, respectively) were clarified using phylogenetic analyses based on homologies of 56-kDa type-specific antigen genes. Isolates in Japan, Korea and China were located in eight separate clusters in the phylogenetic tree, and each was designated as JG (Japanese Gilliam type), JP-1 and JP-2 (Japanese Karp 1 and 2 types), Kato, Kawasaki, Kuroki, Shimokoshi and LX-1 types. All isolates originated in southeast Asia, including the prototype Gilliam and Karp strains isolated in Burma and New Guinea, respectively, were distantly located in the phylogenetic tree from those isolates in Japan, Korea and China, indicating that strains of O. tsutsugamushi distributed in northeastern and southeastern Asia are different types.

Animals↗

Late eocene sivaladapid primate from Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, People's Republic of China.

A new genus and species of Sivaladapidae is described from the late Eocene Gongkang Formation, Yongle Basin, western Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, southern China. Guangxilemur tongi, new genus and species, shows a combination of traits that occur separately in earlier and more primitive Asian adapiforms (Hoanghonius and Rencunius) and in Miocene sivaladapines (Sivaladapis and Sinoadapis). Phylogenetic analysis of dental characters suggests that Guangxilemur is closely related to the Miocene sivaladapine clade. Miocene sivaladapines were the latest surviving members of a broad radiation of Eocene adapiforms in Asia that included Hoanghonius, Rencunius, and Wailekia in addition to Guangxilemur. European Periconodon may also be specially related to this primarily Asian clade, but current anatomical data are insufficient to test this possibility adequately. Sivaladapine adapiforms and tarsiid tarsiiforms maintained relictual distributions in southern and/or southeastern Asia far beyond the extirpation of their closest relatives on other Holarctic continents near the Eocene-Oligocene boundary. This temporal persistence was mediated by Asian paleogeography, which allowed virtually continuous access to tropical refugia during a middle Cenozoic interval of climatic deterioration that coincided with the extinction of adapiforms and tarsiiforms in Europe and North America.

Animals↗

[Avian influenza viruses isolated in Japan].

Currently, H5N1 influenza viruses remain a serious public health concern in Asia and now in Europe. We showed that the H5N1 viruses associated with outbreaks of HPAI in chickens in Japan were genotypically closely related to an H5N1 virus isolated from a chicken in China in 2003 (genotype V), but were different from those prevalent in southeastern Asia in 2003-2004 (i.e., genotype Z). H5N1 viruses were also isolated from duck meat imported from China during this routine surveillance in May of 2003. We characterized these H5N1 isolates and found that poultry products contaminated with influenza viruses of high pathogenic potential to mammals are a threat to public health even in countries where the virus is not enzootic and represent a possible source of influenza outbreaks in poultry.

Animals↗

Shaping the nation state: ethnicity, class and the new population policy in Singapore.

"This paper explores the relationships between ethnicity, class and the New Population Policy (NPP) in Singapore in the context of its nation state project.... The paper uses data from a sample of the Singaporean population to investigate the impact of the NPP on both ethnic and income (class) groups in order to assess the importance of the ethnic dimension in this aspect of Singapore's development strategy. It concludes that, although differences in fertility behaviour may be rooted in ethnic identity, the control that the government wishes to exert over that behaviour as part of its nation-building project has largely been effected through class interests, and may be better interpreted as part of a broader strategy of human resource management which is attracting the attention of other Asian newly industrialising countries."

Asia↗

Isolation and characterization of Midway virus: a new tick-borne virus related to Nyamanini.

Midway virus, a new tick-borne virus isolated from two species of Ornithodoros (Alectorobius) ticks of the capensis group (O capensis, O denmarki), is described from Midway, Kure, and Manana islands in the Central Pacific (Hawaiian Archipelago) and from northern Honshu (Japan). Midway virion is enveloped, unusually large, acid and temperature sensitive, and its type of nucleic acid is RNA. Complement-fixation (CF) tests show a close relation of Midway to Nyamanini virus, which has been isolated from ardeid birds and Argas ticks in Africa, the Indian subcontinent, and Southeastern Asia. However, cross-box tests (CF, mouse and tissue culture neutralization, immunofluorescence) show that these two viruses are quite distinct. Midway virus is lethal for newborn Swiss mice inoculated by intracerebral, but not intraperitoneal route. It fails to kill four-week-old mice by either route. Midway virus causes cytopathic effects in BHK-21 cells and titerable plaques in Vero cells. Antibodies to it were prevalent among nestlings of Larus crassirostris (Black-tailed Gull) on Aomatsushima I., but were scarce among those of Nycticorax nycticorax (Black-crowned Night Heron) of the same island.

Animals↗

Tropical forests: present status and future outlook.

Tropical forests still cover almost 8 million km squared of the humid tropics but they are being destroyed at ever-more rapid rates. In 1989, the area deforested amounted to 142,200 km squared, or nearly 90% more than in 1979. Thus, whereas the 1989 amounted total to 1.8% of the remaining biome, the proportion could well continue to rise for the foreseeable future, until there is little forest in just a few decades. Deforestati on patterns are far from even throughout the biome. In much of the Southeast and Southern Asia, East and West Africa, and Central America, there is likely to be little forest left by the year 2000 or shortly thereafter. But in the Zaire basin, western Brazilian Amazonia, and the Guyana highlands, sizeable expanses of forest could persist a good while longer. The main agent of deforestation in the 'shifted cultivator' or displaced peasant, who, responding to land hunger and general lack of rural development in traditional farming areas of countries concerned, feels there is no alternative but to adopt a slash-and-burn lifestyle in forestlands. This person is now accounting for at least 60% of deforestation, a rapidly expanding proportion. However, he receives far less policy attention than the commercial logger, the cattle rancher, and other agents of deforestation.

Africa↗

On tests for sex preferences.

"This paper presents a critical evaluation of three widely used tests for sex preferences: sex ratio, parity progression ratio and ordinary least squares [OLS] regression of birth interval. We show that under some appropriate conditions, the sex ratio is a valid test for sex preferences. The methods of parity progression ratio and OLS regression of birth interval fail to deal with right censoring and time varying covariates, which reduce the power of the tests. We suggest the use of hazard estimation to test for sex preferences. We demonstrate the differences among the tests by analyzing the retrospective fertility histories of the Chinese and the Malays in Malaysia. We find that unlike the two conventional methods, the hazard estimation gives clear and strong evidence of sex preferences among the Chinese in Malaysia."

Asia↗

Migration regions of the Philippines.

"In contrast to results for several other nations, hierarchical regionalizations based upon 1960 Philippine lifetime migration do not indicate that islands act as migration regions....Inter-island links seem to be more important than intra-island ties. Northern Luzon, the Bicol Peninsula and the Southern Philippines are among the regions that appear. Manila and its suburban province of Rizal are exceptional both for the breadth and strength of their interprovincial migration ties."

Asia↗