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At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources
PubMed1983

Population estimates from longitudinal records in otherwise data-deficient settings.

Existing methods for estimating population parameters in settings of data deficiency do not provide techniques for analysis of commonly available longitudinal data. In setting where complete population data is unavailable, longitudinal data recorded for only a subset of the total population are often available (e.g., event registers, genealogies). In this article we present and evaluate models which derive population parameters for the population subgroup underlying such longitudinal data. Using the distribution of individual times until first recorded event within a measurement interval, population parameters are estimated which provide basic denominator data for analyzing event occurrence. The models which we derive are especially suited to records which may include migration and population growth trends. The use of the models is demonstrated and evaluated through an application to genealogical records for a nineteenth-century population. Possible extensions of these models and their major limitations are also discussed.

Adult↗
PubMed1978

[Influence of population growth on national health care (author's transl)].

In the Federal Republic of Germany a decline of population is expected, because fertility is very low. This article deals with the implications of this trend for the health system. On the basis of population models and population forcasts the author comes to the conclusion that in the long run the burden of health costs will not become lower but higher, because of the growing proportion of old people. Nevertheless it is supposed that the influence of other factors than demographic ones may be greater.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1982

Statistical and historical analyses of nations which deviate from the size-density law.

We examine nations which deviate significantly from the -2/3 size-density slope previously observed for the aggregated political subdivisions of 98 modern nations and previously derived from the theory of time-minimization. We correct Stephan's original list of deviant nations, demonstrate that all slopes more negative than -2/3 were due to the erroneous inclusion of cities in the original data sets, develop a theory to account for the less negative deviant slopes, and test the theory both through statistical manipulation of current data and through analysis of available historical data.

Demography↗
PubMed1978

Allometry and multivariate growth.

Multivariate allometry, and conservative and nonconservative growth models are generalized by a set of global differential equations, preserving the linear trajectory property. Linear least squares methods are exposited for estimation of parameters, comparing special cases and drawing qualitative conclusions. Three classical sets of data are analyzed in detail, illustrating the usefulness and simplicity of the method.

Animals↗
PubMedDate not supplied

[Critical levels in the numerical growth of the world's population].

A critical level of the world human population growth, at which there will be a change in the growth tendency, was estimated on the basis of the available data on the world human population growth and the theory of critical levels in development (Zhirmunskiĭ and Kuz'min, 1990). The critical value (N1) estimated from the world population 7,400,000,000 will be reached in 2003. However, when estimated on the basis of total biomass of human population (N2, seem less accurate), it will be reached in 2008, when the total numbers attain 9,100,000,000.

Biomass↗
PubMed1976

Stability of population growth determined by 2 X 2 Leslie matrix with density-dependent elements.

The matrix considered contains four elements, each a function of total number. A special case for which the matrix may be appropriate is when the population may be divided into juveniles and adults, and the survival rates and fecundity are the same for all members of each group. This is true, at least approximatley, for many species of birds. The conditions for stability are determined and are illustrated with a model based on the data collected on the Marley Wood, Oxford, population of the Great tit (Parus major L.). A reformulation of the conditons permits comparison with the conditions for a population with identical survival rates and fecundity for all age groups, i.e., a population without effective age structure. Conditions under which the age structure may be ignored when discussing stability are considered.

Age Factors↗