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Identification of women at increased risk for breast cancer in a population-based screening program.

A multivariate model to assess breast cancer risk was developed by Gail et al. (M. H. Gail, L. A. Brinton, D. B. Byar, D. K. Corle, S. B. Green, C. Schairer, and J. J. Mulvihill, J. Natl. Cancer Inst., 81: 1879-1886, 1989) based on data analysis of the Breast Cancer Detection and Demonstration Project. We evaluated the model's usefulness for assigning women to risk groups for counseling and follow-up by applying it to the 1987 Texas Breast Screening Project data. We identified 3165 women with one or more first-degree relatives affected with breast cancer. The mean risk score for the group was 3.3 (range, 2.7-11.8), indicating a greater than 3-fold elevated risk. The mean risk score for the remaining 27,439 women without affected first-degree relatives was 1.5 (range, 1.24-3.2). Risk perception was found to be a motivator for participation. Women with a risk score greater than 5 perceived themselves to be at high risk for breast cancer. The perception of risk was related to the type of affected first-degree relatives: 80.0% of the women with three affected first-degree relatives and 71.5% of women whose mother and sister were both affected with breast cancer perceived themselves to be at high risk. The Gail model is potentially useful in the clinical setting because women at high risk for breast cancer can be entered into etiological studies, enrolled in primary prevention trials, or referred to programs seeking to improve compliance with screening mammography. The Gail model needs validation, but it is useful for estimating the risk of breast cancer in large populations.

Adult

[Epidemiologic foundation for population studies of program MZ-XVII].

Epidemiological foundation included: aim of studies, knowledge about epidemiology of thyroid disorders in Poland, evaluation of radioiodine dose accumulated in thyroids of inhabitants of different age living in different par of Poland, information about relative diet iodine deficiency in different parts of Poland and identification of research teams (manpower) capable to carry on population studies. The final identification of epidemiological foundation was proceeded by pilot studies performed in 4 different regions of Poland. Finally it was decided that population studies would be performed in so called Regions of 6 different University Medical Schools (Białystok, Kraków, Lódź, Poznań, Szczecin, Wrocław). The sample will be selected randomly on the base of information from the voting lists (random selection of vovoidoship, then towns and villages, then streets and number of houses, then number of flats. All living in selected flat or house during Czernobyl accident and born between January 1974 and December 1985 (children) and between January 1926 and December 1973 (adults) will be considered "the sample". In all cases the sample will be examined by means of unified questionnaire and protocol of medical and laboratory examination. The same kits (of the same producers) will be used to evaluate serum TSH, T4, T3 and thyroid autoantibodies. The data obtained will be evaluated by unified computerized system. Separate studies involved the sample of newborns exposed to radioiodine during last trimester of pregnancy, found to be euthyroid and given potassium iodide in first days of life. Separate system was also used to investigate effect of radioiodine and of prophylactic dose of potassium iodide in those with past history of thyroid disorders.

Adult

Participation in a smoking cessation program: a population-based perspective.

We examined factors associated with participation in an HMO-based, self-help smoking cessation trial by comparing participants with nonparticipating smokers who responded to a prior health survey. Recruitment to the trial was accomplished through the HMO's monthly magazine sent to all enrollee households, and the health survey involved a random sample of the enrollee population. Participants were more likely to be female, older, better educated, and heavier smokers with more attempts to quit in the past. Participants consistently reported poorer levels of health status (self-perceived health and energy, life satisfaction, depression, and symptoms), less healthy lifestyles (exercise and dietary fat), and a greater conviction that smoking cessation would improve how they feel than nonparticipants. These findings confirm previous suggestions that formal cessation programs attract those with a more extensive history of addiction, prior failure, and pathophysiologic effects and may provide clues to increasing motivation among smokers with a greater likelihood of treatment success.

Adult

The effects of a pesticide program on microbial populations from apple leaf litter.

The leaf litter microbial community was quantitatively and qualitatively changed when a standard pesticide schedule that comprised an insecticide, a bactericide, and a fungicide was applied to McIntosh apple trees in the summer. Effects were observed for two winters by four indirect assays and three direct methods. Populations were altered qualitatively both years, but the most striking difference was the quantitative impact from year to year. Bacteria, filamentous fungi, and yeasts from treated leaves were reduced 10- to 10 000-fold between November 1976 and April 1977 and did not recover until snow cover had melted in March. Reductions in 1977-1978 were negligible. The marked seasonal difference is attributed to meteorological influences. Fluorescent pseudomonads were among the bacteria depressed by chemicals. Of the 49 genera of fungi and yeasts isolated, Coniothyrium sp., Penicillium spp., Arthrobotrys spp., and Nodulisporium sp. were appreciably reduced, whereas Typhula spp., Pleurophomella sp., Sporobolomyces spp., and Rhodotorula spp. were substantially enhanced by the spray program.

Azinphosmethyl

[How can the largest possible number of people be reached by a prophylaxis program in a country with a scattered population?].

Two prophylactic programs are described suited to Icelandic conditions: a basic program for the majority of children and youth, and an additional program for individuals who have unusually high caries activities, -called the risk-group. The basic program consists of a) information distributed to groups on diets, including a restricted use of carbohydrates, b) instructions in dental hygiene, c) regular use of fluoride in the form of mouth-wash or tooth-brushing with a fluoride-solution. The additional program aims at individual motivation, explanation of cause and effect and intensive fluorideutilization.

Feeding Behavior

Cytometric characterization and clinical course of breast cancer diagnosed in a population-based screening program.

A randomized controlled trial evaluating mammographic screening was started in two Swedish counties in 1977. In one of these, Ostergötland county, the authors performed static cytofluorometry on 161 cancers detected at the second and third screening rounds, 50 interval cancers, and 219 cancers appearing in the nonscreened control group during the same time period. The median follow-up time was 42 months. No difference in mean S-phase was found between screening and control group cancers, but interval cancers, appearing between two screenings, had increased mean S-phase levels (P = 0.01) compared to both of the other groups. A high S-phase fraction was associated with distant recurrence in both node-negative and node-positive tumors. Aneuploid tumors were more often found in the control group (67%) and among interval cancers (72%) than among screening detected cancers (55%, P = 0.02). In Cox's multivariate analysis, including all patients, the lymph node status, tumor size, estrogen receptor content, and S-phase all contributed independent prognostic information about the clinical course. DNA ploidy predicted the outcome in simple but not in multivariate Cox's analysis. When analyzing screening-detected cancers separately, only the S-phase significantly predicted distant recurrence in multivariate analysis. In tumors with local recurrence, a high S-phase implicated an increased, although not statistically significant, risk for distant recurrence. Survival with metastatic disease was significantly influenced by the S-phase level (P = 0.002). The authors conclude that S-phase fraction provides valuable kinetic information related to the clinical outcome for all stages of the disease and serves as a prognostic factor in screened populations, which have tumors predominantly in early stages.

Adult

The relationship between age and incidence of breast cancer. Population and screening program data.

Despite extensive study of breast cancer incidence, including specific studies of the relationship between age and breast cancer incidence, the picture remains confusing. This article examines not only the relationship between age and breast cancer, but also trends over time related to this relationship to discern the underlying true age-incidence pattern. The age-incidence curve changes around the menopausal period, most likely due to hormonal changes 10 to 15 years earlier, flattens out in the 40 to 50 year old age range, and then increases as age increases. Recent data showing decreased risk of breast cancer incidence at older ages, e.g., older than 75 years of age, relative to younger ages, are likely an artifact of recent increases in breast cancer screening in the United States. This picture is consistent with increases in screening and with notions of lead time created by increased screening. The increase in screening that has changed the age-incidence relationship may eventually deliver benefits to United States women in terms of mortality deficits, but this is not guaranteed unless screening becomes routine practice and high-quality therapeutic intervention and follow-up occurs as well.

Age Factors

Negative predictive value of a population-based preschool vision screening program.

BACKGROUND: The Enhanced Vision Screening Program is a population-based vision screening program that has, at present, examined 59,782 children. Its main goal is to detect amblyopia, strabismus, and high refractive errors. An average of 11,910 4 1/2- to 5 1/2-year-old children are screened yearly. The current study determines the negative predictive value of the screening program: For a subject having passed the vision screening test, what is the probability of not having amblyopia, strabismus, or high refractive errors? METHODS: Of the 11,734 subjects who passed the vision screening, 200 were randomly chosen to undergo a strictly defined gold standard examination by an orthoptist and an ophthalmologist. RESULTS: Of the 200 randomly chosen subjects, 157 underwent the gold standard evaluation. The negative predictive value of the Enhanced Vision Screening Program was 97.6% for any potentially vision-threatening ocular condition. It was 98.7% if we considered only the visually significant ocular problems that the test was designed to detect. CONCLUSION: Because the negative predictive value of the Enhanced Vision Screening Program is not 100%, some children with amblyopia, strabismus, or refractive errors are missed. Occasionally, a rare, potentially vision-threatening condition may go undetected. Parents should be made aware of this when they receive the results of the vision screening.

Child

Population strategies to enhance physical activity: the Minnesota Heart Health Program.

A population-wide, community-based program in cardiovascular disease prevention, the Minnesota Heart Health Program (MHHP), has been designed to promote more frequent and vigorous physical activity in North American communities, along with improved eating and smoking patterns. The physical activity component of this broad-based education strategy is based on the facilitation which physical activity provides to lowering of other risk characteristics for heart disease and its enhancement of other healthy behaviors and on the potential for prevention of elevated risk in the first place. The rationale for a population strategy to complement medical approaches to prevention is that exercise patterns are largely socially learned and culturally determined. The MHHP Physical Activity Program is implemented through three major education strategies: direct education, community organization, and mass communications. Early results from this 10-year project indicate that it is feasible to enter U.S. communities and to involve their leadership actively in MHHP activities of health promotion. Moreover, attitudes, knowledge, awareness, participation, and behaviors related to exercise and eating patterns appear to be changed by the program. Nevertheless, there are problems in the design, implementation, analysis and interpretation of population changes in physical activity and other health behaviors in community demonstration programs. These issues, along with their solutions, should provide useful information for medical science and for the public health about population strategies of disease prevention and health promotion.

Adolescent