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[Leprosy surveillance in Olinda, Brazil, using spatial analysis techniques].

In the State of Pernambuco, Brazil, leprosy has been mainly an urban disease, with an uneven geographical distribution related at least partially to the way urban space has been occupied and transformed. Spatial analysis may thus become an important tool to establish an epidemiological surveillance system for leprosy. Homogeneous micro-areas were defined in the city of Olinda through the integration of two databases, the Population Census and SINAN, and through the use of digital maps and geoprocessing techniques. Census tracts were classified according to a social deprivation index (SDI), and micro-area homogeneity was based on similar values for this indicator. Cluster analysis (K-means) was used to define cut-offs between strata. The same procedure was repeated using the income variable only. When the association was tested between the mean SDI value and the mean leprosy detection rate for the period 1991-1996, the value obtained for r2 was 66.1% in the multiplicative model, increasing to 84.3% when the income variable was used. To define different intervention strategies, census tracts were regrouped in three levels of risk: high, moderate, and low. The methodology enabled the identification (within each health district) of groups and/or areas with different risk of leprosy, hence allowing for the definition of control measures.

Analysis of Variance↗

The use of spatial analysis in mapping the distribution of bancroftian filariasis in four West African countries.

The geographical distribution of human infection with Wuchereria bancrofti was investigated in four West African countries (Benin, Burkina Faso, Ghana and Togo), using a commercial immunochromatographic test for filarial antigen. Efforts were made to cover each health-system implementation unit and to ensure no sampling point was >50 km from another, but otherwise the 401 study communities were selected at random. The aim was to enable spatial analysis of the data, to provide a prediction of the overall spatial relationships of the infection. The results, which were subjected to an independent random validation in Burkina Faso and Ghana, revealed that prevalence in the adult population of some communities exceeded 70% and that, over large areas of Burkina Faso, community prevalences were between 30% and 50%. Most of Togo, southern Benin and much of southern Ghana appeared completely free of the infection. Although there were foci on the Ghanaian coast with prevalences of 10%-30%, such high prevalences did not extend into coastal Togo or costal Benin. The prevalence map produced should be useful in prioritizing areas for filariasis control, identifying potential overlap with ivermectin-distribution activities undertaken by onchocerciasis-control programmes, and enabling inter-country and sub-regional planning to be initiated. The results indicate that bancroftian filariasis is more widely distributed in arid areas of Burkina Faso than hitherto recognized and that the prevalences of infection have remained fairly stable for at least 30 years. The campaign to eliminate lymphatic filariasis as a public-health problem in Africa will require significantly more resources (human, financial, and logistic) than previously anticipated.

Adolescent↗

Chronological and spatial analysis of the 1996 Ebola Reston virus outbreak in a monkey breeding facility in the Philippines.

To describe the transmission pattern of natural infection with Ebola Reston (EBO-R) virus in a breeding colony, the chronological and spatial analysis of mortality during the 1996 EBO-R virus outbreak was done in this study. The EBO-R virus infection among monkeys in the facility was widespread. Over a period of 3 months, 14 out of 21 occupied units were contaminated with antigen positive animals. A large number of wild-caught monkeys were involved in this outbreak suggesting that wild-caught monkeys have a high susceptibility to EBO-R virus infection. In this outbreak, morbidity patterns for individual animal units were very different regardless of the type and size of cages, individual or gang cages. The results suggest that not only the cage size but also poor animal husbandry practices may be risk factors for the spread of EBO-R infection.

Animal Husbandry↗

Demographic and environmental correlates of pedestrian injury collisions: a spatial analysis.

Pedestrian injury collisions often occur when and where large numbers of pedestrians travel within complex roadway systems with high traffic flow. The pedestrian injury literature suggests a number of individual and environmental correlates of injury risks, however studies in this area have primarily focused upon demographic differences (e.g. related to age) and a few global characteristics of the roadway system (e.g. aspects of pedestrian traffic). Studies in which the geography of communities has been considered are primarily descriptive, identifying pedestrian injury 'hot spots'. The current study more extensively explores some geographic correlates of pedestrian injury collisions through a spatial analysis of data from the city of San Francisco, CA. A spatial autocorrelation corrected regression model was used to determine factors associated with pedestrian traffic injury in 1990. The study used a geographic information system to map locations of pedestrian injuries, and environmental and demographic characteristics of the city across census tract units. In addition to a number of demographic factors (gender, age, marital status, education, income and unemployment), it was proposed that several environmental features of the city would be related to injury rates (high traffic flow, complex roadway systems, greater population densities and alcohol availability). Results of the study showed that pedestrian injury rates were related to traffic flow, population density, age composition of the local population, unemployment, gender and education. Availability of alcohol through bars was directly related to pedestrian injury collisions in which the pedestrian had been drinking alcohol.

Accidents, Traffic↗

Growth of India's scheduled caste population, 1971-81: a spatial analysis.

The author analyzes the spatial distribution and the rapid growth rate of India's scheduled caste population since 1971 and finds that "there are wide regional disparities in their rates of population growth. Areas with relatively high growth rates are associated with (i) accelerated process of urbanisation and industrialisation, (ii) expansion in mining activity, and (iii) intensification and commercialisation of agricultural development based on irrigation. By contrast, areas experiencing low rates of growth are associated with (i) continuing high mortality rate, and (ii) net out-migration arising from scarcity of resources, acute poverty and subjection to deprivations...."

Agriculture↗

Detection of malignancy in cytology specimens using spectral-spatial analysis.

Despite low sensitivity (around 60%), cytomorphologic examination of urine specimens represents the standard procedure in the diagnosis and follow-up of bladder cancer. Although color is information-rich, morphologic diagnoses are rendered almost exclusively on the basis of spatial information. We hypothesized that quantitative assessment of color (more precisely, of spectral properties) using liquid crystal-based spectral fractionation, combined with genetic algorithm-based spatial analysis, can improve the accuracy of traditional cytologic examination. Images of various cytological specimens were collected every 10 nm from 400 to 700 nm to create an image stack. The resulting data sets were analyzed using the Los Alamos-developed GENetic Imagery Exploitation (GENIE) package, a hybrid genetic algorithm that segments (classifies) images using automatically 'learned' spatio-spectral features. In an evolutionary fashion, GENIE generates a series of algorithms or 'chromosomes', keeping the one with best fitness with respect to a user-defined training set. First, we tested the system to determine if it could recognize malignant cells using artificial cytology specimens constructed to completely avoid the requirement for human interpretation. GENIE was able to differentiate malignant from benign cells and to estimate their relative proportions in controlled mixtures. We then tested the system on routine cytology specimens. When targeted to detect malignant urothelial cells in cytology specimens, GENIE showed a combined sensitivity and specificity of 85 and 95%, in samples drawn from two separate institutions over a span of 4 years. When trained on cases initially diagnosed as 'atypical' but with unequivocal follow-up by biopsy, surgical specimen or cytology, GENIE showed efficiency superior to the cytopathologist with respect to predicting the follow-up result in a cohort of 85 cases. We believe that, in future, this type of methodology could be used as an ancillary test in cytopathology, in a manner analogous to immunostaining, in those situations when a definitive diagnosis cannot be rendered based solely on the morphology.

Adenocarcinoma↗

[A critical review of epidemiological methods for spatial analysis].

Since the 1950's a number of methods have been developed whose aims is to provide enhanced mapping tools, which allow the depiction of the distribution of disease, and thereafter, to assess risks due to environmental factors (or other spatial-defined factors). Our review of statistical-epidemiological methodology for spatial analysis of diseases shall outline the distinction between global tests for clustering (detection of non casual distribution of events in an area) and cluster detection's techniques for the identification and location of abnormal aggregation of disease's cases. In this paper we evaluate each-one of the proposed methods, on general grounds, with regard to whether they meet the aims of the analysis and how successful they are in overcoming problems.

Epidemiologic Methods↗

Not all maps are equal: GIS and spatial analysis in epidemiology.

Recently, Geographical Information System (GIS) has emerged as an innovative and important component of many projects in public health and epidemiology. One of the most useful functions of GIS in epidemiology continues to be its utility in basic mapping. GIS may also involve more sophisticated spatial analysis of disease occurrence and contributing environmental factors. Depending on the quantity and quality of data and the methodology used in analysis, a given map may be either useful or misleading. Although visual analyses (mapped evidence) strengthened by exploratory analyses are mostly sufficient for epidemiologists, the formal testing of certain hypotheses or the estimation of relationships between measures of disease incidence and, for example, environmental covariates require quantitative modelling of disease distribution. It is a promising prospect that spatial statistics and GIS technology have slowly started to merge. However, whether GIS will be useful in the model-based approach and the prediction in, for example, epidemiology remains to be seen. The desired future development of GIS requires a switch of emphasis from data and information to knowledge.

Arctic Regions↗

Assessment of neuronal density in the putamen in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. Application of stereology and spatial analysis of quadrats.

Human immunodeficiency virus causes neuronal loss in various brain regions, but it has not been reported in the putamen. However, decrease in the volume of the putamen has been observed by magnetic resonance imaging. In order to clarify this issue two complementary methods; the stereological probe, the disector, and spatial analysis of quadrats, were applied in nondemented individuals who had died of acquired immune deficiency syndrome. A 21% decrease in neuronal density was observed in the human immunodeficiency virus group, especially those cases with human immunodeficiency virus encephalitis; however the statistical significance of this finding was borderline.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗

[Quantitative and spatial analysis in image processing: study of drusen distribution from the foveal center in age-related macular degeneration].

Angiofluorograms were obtained from 58 patients presenting posterior pole drusen due to age-related macular degeneration. These frames underwent image processing by morphological mathematics algorithms. The detection sensitivity of this algorithm is 78%. We present a quantitative and spatial analysis of drusen distribution from the foveal center in the form of a graph. This technique may allow for multi-date comparisons, by using a graphic representation of this risk factor for age-related macular degeneration.

Algorithms↗

[Spatial analysis of leprosy cases treated at public health care facilities in Brazil].

Hansen disease or leprosy is a major endemic disease in Brazil. Well-designed strategies, including decentralization of basic care, are needed to reduce its prevalence. The article begins by describing the structure and supply of services for treating leprosy cases in the country, after which it analyzes the trends in epidemiological and operational indicators, comparing the periods before and after decentralization of services to the municipal (local) level. Finally, spatial analysis allowed identifying the territorial distribution of this endemic and analyzing the pattern of geographic areas according to care provided by health facilities and its evolution. Based on the location of the geographic centers in the census tracts by place of residence, and using spatial smoothing technique based on Kernel estimation, the study constructed domain areas of care for each health facility or unit. Following municipalization of care, there was an increase in the detection and treatment by the municipalities themselves, reducing patient evasion to neighboring counties and causing changes in demand trends, with an increase in use of services by the clientele and important alterations in the epidemiological and operational indicators.

Brazil↗

Towards understanding the presence/absence of Human African Trypanosomosis in a focus of Côte d'Ivoire: a spatial analysis of the pathogenic system.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed at identifying factors influencing the development of Human African Trypanosomosis (HAT, or sleeping sickness) in the focus of Bonon, located in the mesophile forest of Côte d'Ivoire. A previous study mapping the main daytime activity sites of 96 patients revealed an important disparity between the area south of the town- where all the patients lived- and the area north of the town, apparently free of disease. In order to explain this disparity, we carried out a spatial analysis of the key components of the pathogenic system, i.e. the human host, the tsetse vector and the trypanosomes in their environment using a geographic information system (GIS). RESULTS: This approach at the scale of a HAT focus enabled us to identify spatial patterns which linked to the transmission and the dissemination of this disease. The history of human settlement (with the rural northern area exploited much earlier than the southern one) appears to be a major factor which determines the land use pattern, which itself may account for differences found in vector densities (tsetse were found six times more abundant in the southern rural area than in the northern). Vector density, according to the human and environmental context in which it is found (here an intense mobility between the town of Bonon and the rural areas), may explain the observed spatial differences in HAT prevalence. CONCLUSION: This work demonstrates the role of GIS analyses of key components of the pathogenic system in providing a better understanding of transmission and dissemination of HAT. Moreover, following the identification of the most active transmission areas, and of an area unfavourable to HAT transmission, this study more precisely delineates the boundaries of the Bonon focus. As a follow-up, targeted tsetse control activities starting north of Bonon (with few chances of reinvasion due to very low densities) going south, and additional medical surveys in the south will be proposed to the Ivoirian HAT control program to enhance the control of the disease in this focus. This work also shows the evolution of HAT regarding time and environment, and the methodology used may be able to predict possible sleeping sickness development/extinction in areas with similar history and space organization.

Journal Article↗

Skunk and raccoon rabies in the eastern United States: temporal and spatial analysis.

Since 1981, an epizootic of raccoon rabies has spread throughout the eastern United States. A concomitant increase in reported rabies cases in skunks has raised concerns that an independent maintenance cycle of rabies virus in skunks could become established, affecting current strategies of wildlife rabies control programs. Rabies surveillance data from 1981 through 2000 obtained from the health departments of 11 eastern states were used to analyze temporal and spatial characteristics of rabies epizootics in each species. Spatial analysis indicated that epizootics in raccoons and skunks moved in a similar direction from 1990 to 2000. Temporal regression analysis showed that the number of rabid raccoons predicted the number of rabid skunks through time, with a 1-month lag. In areas where the raccoon rabies virus variant is enzootic, spatio-temporal analysis does not provide evidence that this rabies virus variant is currently cycling independently among skunks.

Animals↗

Spatial analysis and mapping of sexually transmitted diseases to optimise intervention and prevention strategies.

OBJECTIVE: We analysed and mapped the distribution of four reportable sexually transmitted diseases, chlamydial infection/non-gonococcal urethritis (chlamydial infection), gonorrhoea, primary and secondary syphilis (syphilis), and HIV infection, for Wake County, North Carolina, to optimise an intervention. METHODS: We used STD surveillance data reported to Wake County, for the year 2000 to analyse and map STD rates. STD rates were mathematically represented as a spatial random field. We analysed spatial variability by calculating and modelling covariance functions of random field theory. Covariances are useful in assessing spatial patterns of disease locally and at a distance. We combined observed STD rates and appropriate covariance models using a geostatistical method called kriging, to predict STD rates and associated prediction errors for a grid covering Wake County. Final disease estimates were interpolated using a spline with tension and mapped to generate a continuous surface of infection. RESULTS: Lower incidence STDs exhibited larger spatial variability and smaller neighbourhoods of influence than higher incidence STDs. Each reported STD had a clustered spatial distribution with one primary core area of infection. Core areas overlapped for all four STDs. CONCLUSIONS: Spatial heterogeneity within STD suggests that STD specific prevention strategies should not be targeted uniformly across Wake County, but rather to core areas. Overlap of core areas among STDs suggests that intervention and prevention strategies can be combined to target multiple STDs effectively. Geostatistical techniques are objective, population level approaches to spatial analysis and mapping that can be used to visualise disease patterns and identify emerging outbreaks.

Adolescent↗

Temporal and spatial analysis of hyaluronidase activity during development of the embryonic chick limb bud.

The glycosaminoglycan hyaluronate (HA) appears to play an important role in limb cartilage differentiation. The large amount of extracellular HA accumulated by prechondrogenic mesenchymal cells may prevent the cell-cell and/or cell-matrix interactions necessary to trigger chondrogenesis, and the removal of extracellular HA may be essential to initiate the crucial cellular condensation process that triggers cartilage differentiation. It has generally been assumed that HA turnover during chondrogenesis is controlled by the activity of the enzyme hyaluronidase (HAase). In the present study we have performed a temporal and spatial analysis of HAase activity during the progression of limb development and cartilage differentiation in vivo. We have separated embryonic chick wing buds at several stages of development into well-defined regions along the proximodistal axis in which cells are in different phases of differentiation, and we have examined HAase activity in each region. We have found that HAase activity is clearly detectable in undifferentiated wing buds at stage 18/19, which is shortly following the formation of a morphologically distinct limb bud rudiment, and remains relatively constant throughout subsequent stages of development through stage 27/28, at which time well-differentiated cartilage rudiments are present. Moreover, HAase activity in the prechondrogenic distal subridge regions of the limb at stages 22/23 and 25 is just as high as, or even slightly higher than, it is in proximal central core regions where condensation and cartilage differentiation are progressing. We have also found that limb bud HAase is active between pH 2.2 and 4.5 and is inactive above pH 5.0. This suggests that limb HAase is a lysosomal enzyme and that extracellular HA would have to be internalized to be degraded. These results indicate that the onset of chondrogenesis is not associated with the appearance or increase in activity of HAase. We suggest that possibility that HA turnover may be regulated by the binding and endocytosis of extracellular HA in preparation for its intracellular degradation by lysosomal HAase. Finally, we have found that the apical ectodermal ridge (AER)-containing distal limb bud ectoderm possesses a relatively high HAase activity. We suggest the possibility that a high HAase activity in the AER may ensure a rapid turnover and remodeling of the disorganized HA-rich basal lamina of the AER that might be essential for limb outgrowth.

Animals↗

Closing the loop: a spatial analysis to link observed environmental damage to predicted heavy metal emissions.

In many cases, the link between industrial emissions and damage to the environment can only be inferred. The Environment Agency of the United Kingdom imposes emissions limits on industrial sites so that predicted concentrations and deposition rates remain below standard thresholds. Estimates of appropriate critical levels and loads are usually based on laboratory results and rarely estimate synergistic effects between pollutants or consider biological adaptation or selection in the target receptor organisms. The Avonmouth smelter has been emitting zinc and other heavy metals since 1929. It has been the subject of a number of detailed and synoptic studies, especially the impact on soil invertebrates. Damage was assessed using both physiological and ecological measurements. Two methods of spatial analysis were investigated, namely interpolation using standard geographical information system (GIS) operators and atmospheric dispersal modeling using an off-the-shelf model. Both methods can be used to compute contours (isolines) of predicted biological effect. Correlation results show that dispersal modeling is at least as good as kriging but requires much less data. This article demonstrates the usefulness of GIS and dispersal models as tools in decision making to determine the most suitable sampling sites in the assessment and monitoring of the impact of contamination around major point sources.

Air Pollution↗

[Spatial analysis of early neonatal mortality in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro, 1995-1996].

The objective of this study was to establish the spatial distribution of the early neonatal mortality rate (0-3 days) in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro for 1995-1996, identifying the best explanatory factors for spatial variations. By considering Rio de Janeiro's 153 neighborhoods as ecological units of analysis, socioeconomic and maternal indicators were analyzed according to place of residence. Spatial statistical analysis was performed using the Cliff & Ord methodology, appropriate for lattice data. From the 0-3 day mortality thematic map, we clearly identified two clusters of high early neonatal mortality rates. Spatial dependence was also confirmed by the statistical results of the spatial analysis. The variables that explain the clusters are the proportions of "adolescent mothers", "slum-dwellers", and "heads of households below the poverty level". Spatial statistics provided a better understanding of the geographic distribution of early neonatal mortality and suggested potential hypotheses for further investigation, which could support preventive programs and contribute to a decrease in infant mortality.

Adolescent↗