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PubMed2002

[Long-term trends of the demographic aging in Germany].

At the beginning of the 21st century, Germany is experiencing the highest demographic aging after Japan. The aging process was first initiated by the increase of life expectancy, especially at the age above 60 years which caused an increase in the number of old people. During the next phase (1970-2000) the aging process was additionally affected by decreasing birth rates. Since the end of the 1960s the total fertility rate in Germany has been below the replacement level. As a consequence the number of children is decreasing and the number of old people has been increasing for 30 years. Various population projections published by the Institute for Population Research and Social Policy (IBS) demonstrate that the aging process will intensify during the next 50 years: the number of the oldest old population will triple, and the dependancy ratio will at least double. This process cannot be stopped or considerably diminished by an increasing number of young immigrants. After 2050 the cohorts born after the second world war (the baby boom cohorts) will be dead. But the decreasing number of old people beyond 2050 will not automatically lead to a lower dependancy ratio, because the age group 0-20 is diminishing continuously. Only a rise of the total fertility rate to the replacement level of 2.1 children per women could stop the aging process effectively in the long run (i.e., after two generations or after 60 years, respectively). In this case, the dependancy ratio will not double or triple but increase by a factor of 1.5.

Aged↗

PubMed1985

Effect of the number of inseminating sperm and the follicular stimulation protocol on in vitro fertilization of human oocytes in male factor and non-male factor couples.

The effect of sperm concentration and follicular stimulation protocol on in vitro fertilization of human oocytes is not well established. Comparison was made of three inseminating concentrations (250,000, 375,000, and 500,000 progressively motile sperm/oocyte) and three protocols (human menopausal gonadotropin [hMG], clomiphene citrate [CC], and combination hMG/CC) on the fertilization rate of mature and immature oocytes in couples with male factor and non-male factor infertility. In non-male factor couples, total fertilization rates for CC, hMG, and hMG/CC were 70.3%, 54.5%, and 68.8%, respectively, while total fertilization rates at the varying number of inseminating sperm were not significantly different. Mature oocytes were more likely than immature oocytes to fertilize. Among semen male factor couples, there was no difference in fertilization by stimulation protocol; however, insemination with the higher number of inseminating sperm resulted in an increased fertilization rate.

Clomiphene↗

PubMed1994

Fertilization of human oocytes following cryopreservation; normal karyotypes and absence of stray chromosomes.

Survival following cryopreservation of fresh and aged human oocytes by the propanediol (PROH) procedure was observed in 51 and 73% of oocytes respectively, immediately after thawing. This survival was reduced in both types of oocytes at the time of insemination (3-4 h) to 41% in fresh and 61% in aged oocytes. Insemination of the cryopreserved and control oocytes with spermatozoa from one donor resulted in total fertilization rates similar to our in-vitro fertilization (IVF) rate for non-male factor patients. The normal fertilization rate for fresh cryopreserved oocytes was slightly lower (46%) than the rate for IVF oocytes (59%) (P < 0.05), while the abnormal fertilization rates were not significantly different (16 and 15% respectively). In contrast, a reduction in the normal fertilization rate was observed for the aged cryopreserved oocytes (13%) compared to the IVF rate (P < 0.001). Associated with this was an increase in the abnormal fertilization rate for the aged cryopreserved oocytes, which was significantly higher (47%) than the IVF rate (15%) (P < 0.001). Significant differences in the total and normal fertilization rates were observed between cryopreserved oocytes obtained from cohorts with < or = 27 (total: 84%, normal: 68%) and > 27 oocytes (total: 55%, normal: 33%) (P < 0.05). Fertilized oocytes and oocytes with abnormal or absent spindles were examined for chromosomal loss and no stray chromosomes were observed in any of these cryopreserved oocytes (n = 137). In the cryopreserved oocytes which had undergone normal fertilization, four scorable karyotypes were achieved and in all of these two sets of 23 chromosomes were observed.

Cell Survival↗

PubMed1995

Impact of immunoglobulin isotype and sperm surface location of antisperm antibodies on fertilization in vitro in the human.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of immunoglobulin (Ig) isotypes and their location on the human sperm surface on fertilization in vitro. DESIGN: Restrospective review and analysis. SETTING: Reproductive endocrine division of a level 3 academic center. PATIENTS: Forty-eight couples (80 IVF cycles) with males showing positive antisperm antibodies on the sperm surface by immunobead test, treated by IVF at the Norfolk Program. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Evaluation of total fertilization rate of preovulatory oocytes (metaphase II-metaphase I). RESULTS: Immunoglobulin G and IgA antibody levels have no significant correlation with total fertilization rate of preovulatory oocytes by logistic regression. Immunoglobulin M, present in 44% of the couples, had a strong correlation with fertilization. When IgA showed very high levels of binding (> 68%) and IgM binding was > 40%, the fertilization rate dropped significantly. A strong correlation between presence of antibodies and fertilization rate was seen when IgM was directed to the head or tail tip of the sperm. Immunoglobulin A induced a statistically significant reduction of fertilization only when it was present on the head. CONCLUSION: Two male antisperm Ig isotypes significantly impaired fertilization rates. Immunoglobulin A exerted its impact only when high level of binding was detected on the head. Immunoglobulin M, present in 44% of the males, was the Ig isotype that most significantly affected fertilization rates when localized both at the head and at the tail tip level.

Autoantibodies↗

PubMed1996

The quantity/quality of children hypothesis in developing countries: testing by considering some demographic experiences in China, India and Africa.

Initially a general regression equation is estimated, making use of cross-country data, relating the level of the total fertility rate to a range of variables, including the level of per capita real income. There is a statistically significant negative relationship between the level of the total fertility rate and real income per capita. Once the theory of the quantity-cum-quality of children hypothesis is set out formally, and in a flexible form, it is clear that this statistical relationship is not inconsistent with this theory. However, this relationship is not a strong, or convincing, test of this hypothesis. To provide more satisfactory tests of this hypothesis, additional relevant information from various developing countries is used. Information on recent demographic changes in China provides a comparatively powerful, direct test of the theory. More indirect tests of the theory are provided by drawing on data for India in the 1960s, and for sub-Saharan African countries in the 1980s and early 1990s. These various tests suggest that the quantity-cum-quality hypothesis, in its flexible form, appears to explain some of the changes in fertility rates observed in various developing countries in recent decades.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1995

[Analysis of factors related to the recent decline in birth rate in Japan].

This study was undertaken in an attempt to determine whether regional differences exist for those factors which have affected the decline in the total fertility rate in Japan between 1970 and 1990. Age Stratified analysis of vital statistics of the 20 to 39-year-old female population for the 46 prefectures was performed, and evaluated in relation to urbanization. The parameters examined were birth rate, percentage of married women, rates of birth by married women, and percentage of the work force in the service industry. The results were as follows. 1. Characteristic changes were noted in birth rates for females between 25 and 29 years of age. The reasons are that average marriage age for females shifted from 20-24 to 25-29, causing the birth rates for females between the ages of 25 to 29 years to decline, while not uniformly, but with some regional differences among the 46 prefectures. 2. Urbanization has had a significant effect on the declining birth rate for females grouped by age. The advance of the urbanization process in each prefecture is directly related to the decline in the birth rates for females between 20 to 24 years and 25 to 29 years. The extent of urbanization in each prefecture is inversely related to the rate of birth by married women and the percentage of married women between age 20 to 24 and 25 to 29 in that prefecture. The trend toward delaying marriage and childbirth in the urbanized prefectures appeared to be a major factor leading to the decline in the total fertility rate.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Age Factors↗

PubMed2003

Impact and determinants of sex preference in Nepal.

CONTEXT: Gender discrimination and son preference are key demographic features of South Asia and are well documented for India. However, gender bias and sex preference in Nepal have received little attention. METHODS: 1996 Nepal Demographic and Health Survey data on ever-married women aged 15-49 who did not desire any more children were used to investigate levels of gender bias and sex preference. The level of contraceptive use and the total fertility rate in the absence of sex preference were estimated, and logistic regression was performed to analyze the association between socioeconomic and demographic variables and stopping childbearing after the birth of a son. RESULTS: Commonly used indicators of gender bias, such as sex ratio at birth and sex-specific immunization rates, do not suggest a high level of gender discrimination in Nepal. However, sex preference decreases contraceptive use by 24% and increases the total fertility rate by more than 6%. Women's contraceptive use, exposure to the media, parity, last birth interval, educational level and religion are linked to stopping childbearing after the birth of a boy, as is the ethnic makeup of the local area. CONCLUSIONS: The level of sex preference in Nepal is substantial. Sex preference is an important barrier to the increase of contraceptive use and decline of fertility in the country; its impact will be greater as desired family size declines.

Adolescent↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Fertility and childbearing practices in rural African community.

This longitudinal, community based study was carried out to gain insight into factors which influence child bearing practices and fertility in a typical Yoruba village in S.W. Nigeria. Although fertility is shown to be on the decline in most developing countries, a relatively high fertility is still sustained in the rural areas of this country. Women start child bearing early and continue into advanced reproductive ages. Median age of the women who delivered in the 2 year study period was 24 years with peak fertility seen between ages 20-24 years. Seasonality of births was observed due to religion and the agricultural cycle. Unadjusted Total Fertility Rate (TFR) for 1993 was 8.83 and for 1994 was 8.47. This small decline in TFR was not significant (Paired t-test t = 1.3, p = 0.28). Traditional attitudes which favour high fertility are maintained because of ignorance about modern family planning methods, low child survival rates and the ingrained custom of using children as a source of help on the farms. In addition, children are still the major source of support in old age. It is recommended that in order to reduce National total fertility rate, attention be paid to the rural areas where the majority of the people reside. Potential modifiable factors include improving child survival rates, increasing contraceptive awareness and education and a general improvement in the socio-economic conditions of the rural areas of this country.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1988

Fertility and legal abortion in England and Wales: performance indicators for family planning services.

The relation between fertility rates and legal abortion rates was investigated in a sample of health authorities in England and Wales to see how these varied. Total period fertility rates and total period legal abortion rates were derived from the average number of live births or legal abortions that would be experienced per woman if women experienced the age specific rates of the year in question throughout their childbearing years. The sample of 30 health authorities was selected by taking the districts with the highest and lowest fertility rates in each English region and in Wales in 1986. Total period fertility rates varied from 1.37 in Riverside to 2.42 in Tower Hamlets, while abortion rates varied from 0.25 in East Yorkshire to 0.99 in Riverside. When the two rates were added to provide a potential fertility rate it became clear that some districts with similar potential fertility rates had very different underlying component rates. Such comparisons can be used for service monitoring, indicating the need for better abortion and family planning services in districts with high fertility rates and for better family planning services in those with high abortion rates.

Abortion, Legal↗

PubMed2002

Births: final data for 2000.

OBJECTIVES: This report presents 2000 data on U.S. births according to a wide variety of characteristics. Data are presented for maternal demographic characteristics including age, live-birth order, race, Hispanic origin, marital status, and educational attainment; maternal characteristics (medical risk factors, weight gain, tobacco and alcohol use); medical care utilization by pregnant women (prenatal care, obstetric procedures, complications of labor and/or delivery, attendant at birth, and method of delivery); and infant characteristics (period of gestation, birthweight, Apgar score, abnormal conditions, congenital anomalies, and multiple births). Also presented are birth and fertility rates by age, live-birth order, race, Hispanic origin, and marital status. Selected data by mother's State of residence are shown, as well as data on month and day of birth, sex ratio, and age of father. Trends in fertility patterns and maternal and infant characteristics are described and interpreted. METHODS: Descriptive tabulations of data reported on the birth certificates of the 4.059 million births that occurred in 2000 are presented. RESULTS: The number of births rose 3 percent in 2000; birth and fertility rates rose 1 to 2 percent. The total fertility rate was above "replacement" for the first time in almost 30 years. Teenage birth rates continued to fall while birth rates for women aged 20-24 years rose slightly, and rates for women in their late twenties and thirties rose 3 to 5 percent. Births to women in their forties and early fifties were also up for 2000. The number of births to unmarried women, the birth rate, and the percent of births that were to unmarried women rose 1 to 3 percent, but birth rates for unmarried teenagers declined. Smoking by pregnant women was down again. The cesarean delivery rate rose 4 percent to 22.9, the fourth consecutive increase; the primary cesarean rate was up and the rate of vaginal births after a previous cesarean was down. The number and rate of twin births continued to rise, but the triplet/+ birth rate declined for the second year in a row. For the first year in almost a decade the preterm birth rate declined (to 11.6 percent); the low birthweight rate, however, was unchanged at 7.6 percent.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1984

Estimation of fertility in Indonesia 1980 from last live birth data.

A method of estimating current fertility from information on last live births is presented. The technique is developed from one proposed by Hull for estimating fertility rates for Indonesia using 1976 intercensal survey data and does not depend on conditions of stable fertility or on assumptions about past mortality. "The estimates of [the] total fertility rate for Indonesia 1980 are 4.40, 3.87 and 4.28 for the rural, urban and the total areas respectively, and compare well with the estimates derived by the 'Own Children' method." A comment by Aris Ananta (pp. 49-53) is included. (summary in IND)

Asia↗

PubMed1989

Catholicism and fertility in Puerto Rico.

This paper examines the association between fertility and religious affiliation among Puerto Ricans. Bongaarts' proximate determinants framework is used to compare religious categories on behaviors that directly affect fertility. We found no difference in recent fertility between Catholics and non-Catholics in Puerto Rico (total fertility rate = 2.5). We also found Catholics and non-Catholics to be similar on age at first marriage (23.3 and 23.4 years, respectively), contraceptive use (71 percent and 69 percent of married women currently contracepting), and breast-feeding practices (mean duration of breast-feeding of 4.4 and 4.3 months). Differences were observed between less committed and more committed Catholics in total fertility rate, age at first marriage, and contraceptive use, but these differences were not large and were in the opposite direction from the expected. Our findings support the theory of convergence of Catholic and non-Catholic fertility for the US. Our discrepancy with findings from the National Survey of Family Growth is evidence of the cultural diversity in the US Hispanic population and indicates the importance of disaggregating by ethnicity or national origin when studying this population.

Adolescent↗

PubMedDate not supplied

The fertility-inhibiting effects of the intermediate fertility variables.

Based on the application of an aggregate reproductive model, this study demonstrates that a small number of intermediate fertility variables are responsible for most of the variation in fertility levels of populations. Four variables--proportion married, contraception, induced abortion, and postpartum infecundability--are generally the most important determinants of fertility; the other intermediate factors are of less interest except in unusual circumstances. These four factors explain 96 percent of the variance in the total fertility rate in a sample of 41 populations that include developing and developed countries as well as historical populations. In the last section, the average fertility effect of the principal intermediate fertility variables is estimated for groups of contemporary populations with different total fertility rates.

Abortion, Induced↗

PubMedDate not supplied

[Least squares fitting of a beta distribution to age-specific fertility rates].

"The paper shows at first that using the method of moments to estimate the parameters of a Beta function to fit age specific fertility rates is inadequate. A solution by means of the least squares method is proposed, under the constraint that the implied Total Fertility Rate should equal the observed value." This "iterative solution by means of the Newton-Raphson method turns out to be extremely efficient, converging in only a few steps. In addition, some characteristics of the Beta distribution related to the problem are obtained. The results, applied to 1980 data from the State of Sao Paulo [Brazil], clearly show a better global fit, especially in the area around the peak of the fertility curve." (summary in ENG)

Americas↗

PubMed2001

[Fertility and its intra-urban differentials of human development, São Paulo, Brazil, 1997].

OBJECTIVE: To assess potential discrepancies in reproductive patterns of women living in areas at different levels of human development by analyzing their total fertility rates and age-specific rates. METHODS: Ninety-six districts of the city of São Paulo (Brazil) were grouped in 5 areas according to their human development index (HDI). Women aged 15 to 49 years were included in the study and data was obtained from live birth certificates during the year of 1997. Data was collected from live birth certificates and population census for the year 1996. The following variables were analyzed: HDI; district of mother's residence and mother's age. RESULTS: The total fertility rate (TFR) for women living in the lowest HDI area was 2.62, and the highest specific fertility rate (SFR of 151/1,000) was found for the age group 20-24 years. For the area of highest HDI, the TFR was 1.67, and the age group of 25-29 showed the highest SFR (93/1,000). CONCLUSIONS: Women living in higher HDI areas showed a lower TFR and they tended to begin their reproductive life later in life, which suggests the coexistence of different reproductive patterns in the city of São Paulo.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2001

Variance effects in the Bongaarts-Feeney formula.

Bongaarts and Feeney have recently proposed an adjusted total fertility rate to disentangle tempo effects from changes in the quantum of fertility. We propose an extension to the Bongaarts and Feeney formula that includes variance effects: that is, changes in the variance of the fertility schedule over time. If these variance effects are ignored, the mean age at birth and the adjusted total fertility rate are biased. We provide approximations for these biases, and we extend the TFR adjustment to fertility schedules with changing variance. We apply our method to the Swedish baby boom and bust, and show that variance effects are important for evaluating the relative contributions of tempo and quantum effects to the fertility change from 1985 to 1995.

Adult↗

PubMed1989

Fertility and mortality in tribal populations of Bastar District, Madhya Pradesh, India.

Demographic analysis of genealogical data, collected in 1983-1984 on 792 households of the 4 tribal populations, namely Muria, Madia, Bhattra and Halba, from Jagdalpur and Konta tehsils of Gastar district of Madhya Pradesh (India) is conducted employing indirect estimation techniques. The results of the study indicate that the total fertility rate of these 4 groups is higher than the Madhya Pradesh rural non-tribal population groups and Indian national population which is in accordance with high tribal fertility levels as reported in some studies from India. The study groups show mortality differentials, but feature distressing mortality conditions as compared to the Indian national population. There are also sex-specific mortality differentials in the present study, with males experiencing higher mortality than females. The trends are discussed in the light of prevailing socioeconomic, cultural, and health care practices among these tribal groups.

Age Factors↗

PubMed2002

The effect of changes in timing of childbearing on measuring fertility in England and Wales.

Changes in the ages at which women give birth to their children mean that fertility measured at a particular point in time (period) may not be a good representation of the ultimate fertility of those women. The common measure of period fertility is the total fertility rate, which in 2001 has fallen to the lowest level since records began in England and Wales. This article presents various methods that have been proposed to adjust period fertility data to take account of changes in the timing of childbearing, applied to England and Wales data. The article concludes that while these adjustment methods provide useful insights, for example, that the total fertility rate has underestimated period quantum fertility since the 1970s, the measures produced are difficult to interpret. This is in part because the concept they are trying to measure, period quantum is itself imprecise. The adjustments do not necessarily provide a reliable indicator of underlying cohort fertility.

Adolescent↗