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Results for “population viability”

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PubMed2005

Prioritizing multiple-use landscapes for conservation: methods for large multi-species planning problems.

Across large parts of the world, wildlife has to coexist with human activity in highly modified and fragmented landscapes. Combining concepts from population viability analysis and spatial reserve design, this study develops efficient quantitative methods for identifying conservation core areas at large, even national or continental scales. The proposed methods emphasize long-term population persistence, are applicable to both fragmented and natural landscape structures, and produce a hierarchical zonation of regional conservation priority. The methods are applied to both observational data for threatened butterflies at the scale of Britain and modelled probability of occurrence surfaces for indicator species in part of Australia. In both cases, priority landscapes important for conservation management are identified.

Algorithms↗

PubMed2026

Genetic structure and selection signatures of Beijing-You chicken populations provide insight into breed conservation.

Preserving genetic diversity and maintaining population viability are critical yet challenging goals that demand rigorous evaluation of conservation strategies. Beijing-You chicken, as the sole indigenous chicken breed originating from Beijing, China, is currently maintained as four independent populations under distinct conservation programs. How different conservation regimes have shaped its genomic architecture remains largely unknown, limiting evidence-based evaluation. Here, we generated whole-genome resequencing data from 240 individuals representing four Beijing-You chicken populations to assess population structure, genetic diversity, and signatures of selection over decades of conservation. All four populations formed distinct clusters, reflecting measurable differentiation after decades of separate conservation. The differences in genetic diversity were broadly consistent with the variation in effective population size estimates. Runs of homozygosity and linkage disequilibrium decay patterns further characterized each population, with extended values indicating reduced effective population size and increased inbreeding under long-term conservation. We applied the fixation index (FST) and pairwise diversity ratio (θπ) methods to identify selection signatures. A total of 171 genes were identified as candidates. These genes were enriched in pathways related to reproduction, growth regulation, and environmental adaptation. These findings highlight patterns of reduced diversity and skewed relatedness, which could arise from management-related factors such as breeding preferences or mating strategies. Still, they are also compatible with neutral processes, including drift and founder effects. Regardless of the underlying cause, integrating scientifically informed conservation strategies with routine genomic monitoring across generations is essential for sustaining genetic diversity in Beijing-You chicken and other indigenous breeds.

Beijing-You chicken↗

PubMed2002

Modelling strategies for the management of the critically endangered Carpentarian rock-rat (Zyzomys palatalis) of northern Australia.

The Carpentarian rock-rat (Zyzomys palatalis) is a critically endangered endemic rodent known from only four sandstone gorges in the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria, Northern Territory, Australia. These gorges harbour thickets of monsoon rainforest and broadleaf woodland, surrounded by a Eucalypt savanna matrix. The long-term persistence of Z. palatalis is threatened by altered fire regimes, grazing by feral animals and stock, weed intrusion, and the stochastic hazards associated with small, fragmented populations. To assess the relative importance of these threats and develop practical management options, a population and habitat simulation model was developed, based on the best existing data. Population viability was predicted to be highly sensitive to the frequency of hot, late dry-season fires. Progressive habitat degradation (due predominantly to intense late dry-season fires) is likely to substantially reduce population size and lead to the probable extinction of the species within the next 100 years. The most effective management strategy to counteract this threat would be regular, controlled, fuel reduction burns in the vegetation around the gorge entrances during the early dry season. Establishing a new population (through translocation of captive-bred individuals) would not appreciably reduce extinction risk, but could provide valuable additional data on the impact of threats, if conducted as an adaptive management experiment.

Animals↗

PubMed2005

Genetic changes associated to declining populations of Formica ants in fragmented forest landscape.

We monitored populations of two wood ant species, Formica aquilonia and Formica lugubris, through annual mapping of the colonies in a fragmenting forest landscape from 1966 to 1998. The genetic population structure was studied at the end of the study period by using 12 microsatellite loci. Fragmentation of forest led to a decline and spatial redistribution of populations. Changes in the spatial distribution were particularly pronounced in the highly polygynous (many queens in a single nest) species F. aquilonia, whose local populations declined or became extinct, or relocated themselves and colonized new patches. The genetic relationships of the remaining subpopulations indicated the historical developments, revealing the boundaries of the historical populations (high values of genetic differentiation, F(ST)), recolonization histories (genetic affinities revealed by Bayesian analyses) and population decline (reduced variation). Big genetic differences could be detected over short distances, so differentiation also depended on social factors. Our results showed that a genetic study can be reliably used to dissect the recent historical changes underlying the present population structure, and that species with different social structures can respond differently to habitat changes. Combining our demographic and genetic results suggests that habitat fragmentation forms a clear threat on a local scale with large negative effects on ant population viability.

Animals↗

PubMed2007

Phenology of forest caterpillars and their host trees: the importance of synchrony.

For many leaf-feeding herbivores, synchrony in phenology with their host plant is crucial as development outside a narrow phenological time window has severe fitness consequences. In this review, we link mechanisms, adaptation, and population dynamics within a single conceptual framework, needed for a full understanding of the causes and consequences of this synchrony. The physiological mechanisms underlying herbivore and plant phenology are affected by environmental cues, such as photoperiod and temperature, although not necessarily in the same way. That these different mechanisms lead to synchrony, even if there is spatial and temporal variation in plant phenology, is a result of the strong natural selection acting on the mechanism underlying herbivore phenology. Synchrony has a major impact on the population densities of leaf-feeding Lepidoptera, and years with a high synchrony may lead to outbreaks. Global climate change leads to a disruption of the synchrony between herbivores and their host plants, which may have major impacts for population viability if natural selection is insufficient to restore synchrony.

Animals↗

PubMed2004

Modelling the impact of climate change on woody plant population dynamics in South African savanna.

BACKGROUND: In Southern Africa savannas climate change has been proposed to alter rainfall, the most important environmental driver for woody plants. Woody plants are a major component of savanna vegetation determining rangeland condition and biodiversity. In this study we use a spatially explicit, stochastic computer model to assess the impact of climate change on the population dynamics of Grewia flava, a common, fleshy-fruited shrub species in the southern Kalahari. Understanding the population dynamics of Grewia flava is a crucial task, because it is widely involved in the shrub/bush encroachment process, a major concern for rangeland management due to its adverse effect on livestock carrying capacity and biodiversity. RESULTS: For our study we consider four climate change scenarios that have been proposed for the southern Kalahari for the coming decades: (1) an increase in annual precipitation by 30-40%, (2) a decrease by 5-15%, (3) an increase in variation of extreme rainfall years by 10-20%, (4) and increase in temporal auto-correlation, i.e. increasing length and variation of periodic rainfall oscillations related to El Nino/La Nina phenomena. We evaluate the slope z of the time-shrub density relationship to quantify the population trend. For each climate change scenario we then compared the departure of z from typical stable population dynamics under current climatic conditions. Based on the simulation experiments we observed a positive population trend for scenario (1) and a negative trend for scenario (2). In terms of the projected rates of precipitation change for scenario (3) and (4) population dynamics were found to be relatively stable. However, for a larger increase in inter-annual variation or in temporal auto-correlation of rainfall population trends were negative, because favorable rainfall years had a limited positive impact due to the limited shrub carrying capacity. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that a possible increase in precipitation will strongly facilitate shrub encroachment threatening savanna rangeland conditions and regional biodiversity. Furthermore, the negative effects found for positive auto-correlated rainfall support current ecological theory stating that periodically fluctuating environments can reduce population viability because species suffer disproportionately from poor environmental conditions.

Biodiversity↗

PubMed2006

Modeling observation error and its effects in a random walk/extinction model.

This paper examines the consequences of observation errors for the "random walk with drift", a model that incorporates density independence and is frequently used in population viability analysis. Exact expressions are given for biases in estimates of the mean, variance and growth parameters under very general models for the observation errors. For other quantities, such as the finite rate of increase, and probabilities about population size in the future we provide and evaluate approximate expressions. These expressions explain the biases induced by observation error without relying exclusively on simulations, and also suggest ways to correct for observation error. A secondary contribution is a careful discussion of observation error models, presented in terms of either log-abundance or abundance. This discussion recognizes that the bias and variance in observation errors may change over time, the result of changing sampling effort or dependence on the underlying population being sampled.

Analysis of Variance↗

PubMed2006

Selection for heterozygosity gives hope to a wild population of inbred wolves.

Recent analyses have questioned the usefulness of heterozygosity estimates as measures of the inbreeding coefficient (f), a finding that may have dramatic consequences for the management of endangered populations. We confirm that f and heterozygosity is poorly correlated in a wild and highly inbred wolf population. Yet, our data show that for each level of f, it was the most heterozygous wolves that established themselves as breeders, a selection process that seems to have decelerated the loss of heterozygosity in the population despite a steady increase of f. The markers contributing to the positive relationship between heterozygosity and breeding success were found to be located on different chromosomes, but there was a substantial amount of linkage disequilibrium in the population, indicating that the markers are reflecting heterozygosity over relatively wide genomic regions. Following our results we recommend that management programs of endangered populations include estimates of both f and heterozygosity, as they may contribute with complementary information about population viability.

Animals↗

PubMedDate not supplied

[The influence of the extract of Ungernia victoris cultured cells and of some metal cations on Escherichia coli transformation with plasmid DNA].

In the system of cation-induced E. coli transformation by the plasmid pBR322 the effects of the extract derived from the biomass of cultured cells of U. victoris on the correlation between yield of transformants, viability of CaCl2 - treated cells and plasmid DNA conformation alterations has been investigated. The data obtained have been compared with effects of some salts of one- and divalent metals on the same parameters. The presence of different mechanisms of the variations of cell population viability and yield of transformants depending on utilization of salts or plant extracts has been shown.

Cations, Divalent↗

PubMed2006

Effectiveness of a regional corridor in connecting two Florida black bear populations.

Corridors may mitigate the adverse effects of habitat fragmentation by restoring or maintaining connectivity between disjunct populations. The efficacy of corridors for large carnivores, however has rarely been evaluated objectively. We used noninvasive sampling, microsatellite analysis, and population assignment tests to evaluate the effectiveness of a regional corridor in connecting two Florida black bear (Ursus americanus floridanus) populations (Osceola and Ocala). Bear movement was predominantly unidirectional, with a limited mixing of individuals from the two populations in one area of the corridor We also documented bears in Osceola that were genetically assigned to Ocala and bears in Osceola that may be offspring from an Osceola-Ocala mating. Our results indicate that the Osceola-Ocala corridor is functional and provides a conduit for gene flow between these populations. Human development, however may hinder the use of the Osceola-Ocala corridor by bears. The noninvasive sampling and genetic methods we used provide a means of evaluating corridor effectiveness that can help identify linkages necessary for maintaining metapopulation structure and population viability.

Animals↗

PubMed2002

Short-term studies underestimate 30-generation changes in a butterfly metapopulation.

Most studies of rare and endangered species are based on work carried out within one generation, or over one to a few generations of the study organism. We report the results of a study that spans 30 generations (years) of the entire natural range of a butterfly race that is endemic to 35 km(2) of north Wales, UK. Short-term studies (surveys in single years and dynamics over 4 years) of this system led to the prediction that the regional distribution would be quite stable, and that colonization and extinction dynamics would be relatively unimportant. However, a longer-term study revealed unexpectedly high levels of population turnover (local extinction and colonization), affecting 18 out of the 20 patches that were occupied at any time during the period. Modelling the system (using the 'incidence function model' (IFM) for metapopulations) also showed higher levels of colonization and extinction with increasing duration of the study. The longer-term dynamics observed in this system can be compared, at a metapopulation level, with the increased levels of variation observed with increasing time that have been observed in single populations. Long-term changes may arise from local changes in the environment that make individual patches more or less suitable for the butterfly, or from unusual colonization or extinction events that take metapopulations into alternative states. One implication is that metapopulation and population viability analyses based on studies that cover only a few animal or plant generations may underestimate extinction threats.

Animals↗

PubMed2006

The normative dimension and legal meaning of endangered and recovery in the U.S. Endangered Species Act.

The ethical, legal, and social significance of the U.S. Endangered Species Act of 1973 (ESA) is widely appreciated. Much of the significance of the act arises from the legal definitions that the act provides for the terms threatened species and endangered species. The meanings of these terms are important because they give legal meaning to the concept of a recovered species. Unfortunately, the meanings of these terms are often misapprehended and rarely subjected to formal analysis. We analyzed the legal meaning of recovered species and illustrate key points with details from "recovery" efforts for the gray wolf (Canis lupus). We focused on interpreting the phrase "significant portion of its range," which is part of the legal definition of endangered species. We argue that recovery and endangerment entail a fundamentally normative dimension (i.e., specifying conditions of endangerment) and a fundamentally scientific dimension (i.e., determining whether a species meets the conditions of endangerment). Specifying conditions for endangerment is largely normative because it judges risks of extinction to be either acceptable or unacceptable. Like many other laws that specify what is unacceptable, the ESA largely specifies the conditions that constitute unacceptable extinction risk. The ESA specifies unacceptable risks of extinction by defining endangered species in terms of the portion of a species' range over which a species is "in danger of extinction." Our analysis indicated that (1) legal recovery entails much more than the scientific notion of population viability, (2) most efforts to recover endangered species are grossly inadequate, and (3) many unlisted species meet the legal definition of an endangered or threatened species.

Conservation of Natural Resources↗

PubMed2005

Genetic variation and population structure in remnant populations of black rhinoceros, Diceros bicornis, in Africa.

Black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis) are one of the most endangered mammal species in Africa, with a population decline of more than 96% by the end of the last century. Habitat destruction and encroachment has resulted in fragmentation of the remaining populations. To assist in conservation management, baseline information is provided here on relative genetic diversity and population differentiation among the four remaining recognized subspecies. Using microsatellite data from nine loci and 121 black rhinoceros individuals, and comparing the results with those of other African species affected in similar ways, Diceros bicornis michaeli retained the most genetic diversity (heterozygosity 0.675) compared with Diceros bicornis minor (0.459) and Diceros bicornis bicornis (0.505), suggesting that the duration of the known bottlenecks in these populations has only had a limited impact on diversity. Comparable and moderate degrees of population differentiation were found between D. b. minor, D. b. bicornis and D. b. michaeli. Results from the single sample available of the most endangered subspecies, Diceros bicornis longipes, showed the least diversity of all individuals examined. This information should assist conservation management decisions, especially those affecting population viability assessments and selection of individuals for translocations, and will also facilitate subspecies identification for ex situ individuals of uncertain origin.

Africa, Eastern↗

PubMed1988

Plasmid frequency fluctuations in bacterial populations from chemically stressed soil communities.

The frequency of plasmids in chemically stressed bacterial populations was investigated by individually adding various concentration of kanamycin, ampicillin, and mercuric chloride to soil samples. Viable bacterial populations were enumerated, soil respiration was monitored for up to 6 weeks as an indicator of physiological stress, and bacterial isolates from stressed and control soils were screened for the presence of plasmids. Low levels of the chemical stress factors did not for the most part significantly alter population viability, soil respiration, or plasmid frequency. Exposure to high stress levels of mercury and ampicillin, however, resulted in altered numbers of viable organisms, soil respiration, and plasmid frequency. Plasmid frequency increased in response to ampicillin exposure but was not significantly changed after exposure to kanamycin. In mercuric chloride-stressed soils, there was a decrease in plasmid frequency despite an increase in overall mercury resistance of the isolates, suggesting that mercury resistance in these populations is largely, if not completely, chromosome encoded. Chemical stress did not cause an increase in plasmid-mediated multiple resistance. A genetic response (change in plasmid frequency) was not found unless a physiological (phenotypic) response (change in viable cells and respiratory activity) was also observed. The results indicate that a change in plasmid frequency is dependent on both the amount and type of chemical stress.

Journal Article↗

PubMed2026

Genomic erosion in the assessment of species' extinction risk and recovery potential.

Many species are undergoing rapid population declines and environmental deterioration, leading to genomic erosion. Here we define genomic erosion as the loss of genetic diversity, accumulation of deleterious mutations, maladaptation, and introgression, all of which can undermine individual fitness and long-term population viability. Critically, this process continues even after demographic recovery due to a time-lagged impact of genetic drift, which is known as drift debt. Current conservation assessments, such as the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List, focus on short-term extinction risk and do not capture the long-term consequences of genomic erosion. Likewise, the longer-term assessments of the International Union for Conservation of Nature Green Status may overestimate population recovery by failing to account for the enduring effects of genomic erosion. As genome sequencing becomes increasingly accessible, there is a growing opportunity to quantify genomic erosion and integrate it into conservation planning. Here, we use genomic simulations to illustrate how different genomic metrics are sensitive to the drift debt. We test how ancestral effective population size (Ne) and bottleneck history influence the tempo and severity of genomic erosion. Furthermore, we demonstrate how these dynamics shape genetic load and additive genetic variation, which are key indicators of long-term evolutionary potential. Finally, we present a proof-of-concept for a Genomic Green Status framework that aligns genomic metrics with conservation impact assessments, laying the foundation for genomics-informed strategies to support species recovery.

Extinction, Biological↗

PubMed2006

Negative environmental perturbations may improve species persistence.

Among the factors proximally involved in the extinction of small isolated populations, genetic deterioration and temporal variation in environmental quality have been the subjects of intensive research in ecological and evolutionary sciences. However, previous theoretical studies and population viability assessments generally assumed a strict dichotomy between these two types of threat. Yet a number of empirical studies have recently suggested that the effects of genetic deterioration and environmental variation should not be considered independently, by demonstrating that the main effect of inbreeding depression lies with its tendency to exacerbate the deleterious consequences of environmental stress. Capitalizing on these results, I developed a stochastic model to examine the impact of random environmental perturbations on the persistence time of small isolated populations subject to inbreeding depression and mutation accumulation. The model assumes that spontaneous deleterious mutations have more severe effects when perturbations occur, which results in more efficient purging of the mutation load. Under this assumption, I find that negative perturbations may paradoxically improve middle- and long-term species persistence for realistic frequency of occurrence and severity distribution.

Animals↗

PubMed2005

Projected population-level effects of thiobencarb exposure on the mysid, Americamysis bahia, and extinction probability in a concentration-decay exposure system.

Population-level effects of the mysid, Americamysis bahia, exposed to varying thiobencarb concentrations were estimated using stage-structured matrix models. A deterministic density-independent matrix model estimated the decrease in population growth rate (lambda) with increasing thiobencarb concentration. An elasticity analysis determined that survival of middle stages provided the largest contribution to lambda. Decomposing the effects of lambda in terms of changes in the matrix components determined that reduced reproduction had a large influence on population dynamics at lower thiobencarb concentrations, whereas reduced survivorship had the largest impact on populations at higher concentrations. A simulation model of a concentration-decay system was developed to demonstrate the importance of integrating chemical half-life and management practices in determining population viability. In this model, mysids were originally exposed to a high thiobencarb concentration (300 microg/L) that decayed an order of magnitude in the number of mysid generations corresponding to thiobencarb half-life values under three different exposure regimes. Environmental stochasticity was added to the model to estimate the cumulative extinction probability of mysids exposed to fluctuating concentrations of thiobencarb in random environments. The cumulative extinction probability increased with thiobencarb half-life, stochasticity, and concentration present at the time of a new exposure. The model demonstrated the expansion of population projection models in determining the ecological impact of a population exposed to pesticides.

Animals↗

PubMed2005

Demographic consequences of age-structure in extreme environments: population models for arctic and alpine ptarmigan.

Organisms living in arctic and alpine environments are increasingly impacted by human activities. To evaluate the potential impacts of global change, a better understanding of the demography of organisms in extreme environments is needed. In this study, we compare the age-specific demography of willow ptarmigan (Lagopus lagopus) breeding at arctic and subalpine sites, and white-tailed ptarmigan (L. leucurus) breeding at an alpine site. Rates of egg production improved with age at the alpine and subalpine sites, but the stochastic effects of nest and brood predation led to similar rates of annual fecundity among 1-, 2-, and 3+-year-old females. All populations had short generation times (T<2.7 years) and low net reproductive rates (R0<1.2). Stable age distributions were weighted towards 1-year-old females in willow ptarmigan (>59%), and to 3+-year-old females in white-tailed ptarmigan (>47%). High damping ratios (rho>3.2) indicated that asymptotic estimates were likely to match natural age distributions. Sensitivity and elasticity values indicated that changes in juvenile survival would have the greatest impact on the finite rate of population change (lambda) in willow ptarmigan, whereas changes to the survival of 3+-year-old females would have a greater effect in white-tailed ptarmigan. High survivorship buffers white-tailed ptarmigan in alpine environments against the potential effects of climate change on annual fecundity, but may make the species more sensitive to the effects of pollutants or harvesting on adult survival. Conversely, processes that reduce annual fecundity would have a greater impact on the population viability of willow ptarmigan in arctic and subalpine environments. If these same demographic patterns prove to be widespread among organisms in extreme environments, it may be possible to develop general recommendations for conservation of the biological resources of arctic and alpine ecosystems.

Age Distribution↗