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At least 739 records · Page 41Linked to original sources
PubMed2001

Forecasting agriculturally driven global environmental change.

During the next 50 years, which is likely to be the final period of rapid agricultural expansion, demand for food by a wealthier and 50% larger global population will be a major driver of global environmental change. Should past dependences of the global environmental impacts of agriculture on human population and consumption continue, 10(9) hectares of natural ecosystems would be converted to agriculture by 2050. This would be accompanied by 2.4- to 2.7-fold increases in nitrogen- and phosphorus-driven eutrophication of terrestrial, freshwater, and near-shore marine ecosystems, and comparable increases in pesticide use. This eutrophication and habitat destruction would cause unprecedented ecosystem simplification, loss of ecosystem services, and species extinctions. Significant scientific advances and regulatory, technological, and policy changes are needed to control the environmental impacts of agricultural expansion.

Agriculture↗
PubMed1999

Climate and satellite indicators to forecast Rift Valley fever epidemics in Kenya.

All known Rift Valley fever virus outbreaks in East Africa from 1950 to May 1998, and probably earlier, followed periods of abnormally high rainfall. Analysis of this record and Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies, coupled with satellite normalized difference vegetation index data, shows that prediction of Rift Valley fever outbreaks may be made up to 5 months in advance of outbreaks in East Africa. Concurrent near-real-time monitoring with satellite normalized difference vegetation data may identify actual affected areas.

Animals↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Adaptive rival penalized competitive learning and combined linear predictor model for financial forecast and investment.

We propose a prediction model called Rival Penalized Competitive Learning (RPCL) and Combined Linear Predictor method (CLP), which involves a set of local linear predictors such that a prediction is made by the combination of some activated predictors through a gating network (Xu et al., 1994). Furthermore, we present its improved variant named Adaptive RPCL-CLP that includes an adaptive learning mechanism as well as a data pre-and-post processing scheme. We compare them with some existing models by demonstrating their performance on two real-world financial time series--a China stock price and an exchange-rate series of US Dollar (USD) versus Deutschmark (DEM). Experiments have shown that Adaptive RPCL-CLP not only outperforms the other approaches with the smallest prediction error and training costs, but also brings in considerable high profits in the trading simulation of foreign exchange market.

Algorithms↗
PubMed1996

Age-period-cohort effects on stroke mortality in Sweden 1969-1993 and forecasts up to the year 2003.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Variations in stroke mortality could be explained by changes in factors that act around the time of death (period effect) and by risk factors that are present in early life (cohort effect). The aim of this study was to analyze mortality rates for stroke in Sweden during the period 1969 through 1993 and to predict mortality trends until the year 2003, taking into account age, cohort, and period effects. METHODS: Age-period-cohort models were used to analyze stroke mortality in Sweden between 1969 and 1993 and to predict age-specific death rates and total number of deaths for the periods 1994 through 1998 and 1999 through 2003. RESULTS: Mortality rates in the age group 25 to 89 years decreased from 203 to 143 per 100,000 for men and from 185 to 113 per 100,000 for women over the study period (average annual decrease of 1.3% for men and 1.9% for women). The decline was present in all age groups. The full age-period-cohort model provided an acceptable fit in both sexes. Predictions based on these models gave a mortality rate of 122 and 92 per 100,000 for the period 1999-2003 in men and women, respectively. Despite an aging and increasing population, the total number of stroke deaths in Sweden is predicted to decline by approximately 10% in both men and women from 1989-1993 to 1999-2003. CONCLUSIONS: Both factors, cohort and calendar period, contain relevant information to explain the decline in stroke mortality trends in Sweden. Predictions indicate that the decline of both age-specific and total mortality will continue.

Adult↗
PubMed2006

A grid-based infrastructure for ecological forecasting of rice land Anopheles arabiensis aquatic larval habitats.

BACKGROUND: For remote identification of mosquito habitats the first step is often to construct a discrete tessellation of the region. In applications where complex geometries do not need to be represented such as urban habitats, regular orthogonal grids are constructed in GIS and overlaid on satellite images. However, rice land vector mosquito aquatic habitats are rarely uniform in space or character. An orthogonal grid overlaid on satellite data of rice-land areas may fail to capture physical or man-made structures, i.e paddies, canals, berms at these habitats. Unlike an orthogonal grid, digitizing each habitat converts a polygon into a grid cell, which may conform to rice-land habitat boundaries. This research illustrates the application of a random sampling methodology, comparing an orthogonal and a digitized grid for assessment of rice land habitats. METHODS: A land cover map was generated in Erdas Imagine V8.7 using QuickBird data acquired July 2005, for three villages within the Mwea Rice Scheme, Kenya. An orthogonal grid was overlaid on the images. In the digitized dataset, each habitat was traced in Arc Info 9.1. All habitats in each study site were stratified based on levels of rice stage RESULTS: The orthogonal grid did not identify any habitat while the digitized grid identified every habitat by strata and study site. An analysis of variance test indicated the relative abundance of An. arabiensis at the three study sites to be significantly higher during the post-transplanting stage of the rice cycle. CONCLUSION: Regions of higher Anopheles abundance, based on digitized grid cell information probably reflect underlying differences in abundance of mosquito habitats in a rice land environment, which is where limited control resources could be concentrated to reduce vector abundance.

Agriculture↗
PubMed2005

Molecular classification and molecular forecasting of breast cancer: ready for clinical application?

Profiling breast cancer with expression arrays has become common, and it has been suggested that the results from early studies will lead to understanding of the molecular differences between clinical cases and allow individualization of care. We critically review two main applications of expression profiling; studies unraveling novel breast cancer classifications and those that aim to identify novel markers for prediction of clinical outcome. Breast cancer may now be subclassified into luminal, basal, and HER2 subtypes with distinct differences in prognosis and response to therapy. However, profiling studies to identify predictive markers have suffered from methodologic problems that prevent general application of their results. Future work will need to reanalyze existing microarray data sets to identify more representative sets of candidate genes for use as prognostic signatures and will need to take into account the new knowledge of molecular subtypes of breast cancer when assessing predictive effects.

Biomarkers, Tumor↗
PubMed1992

Forecasting service needs for the year 2000: implications for state government.

This article is based upon research in Florida of the older population and its projected need for services. It includes discussion of the method and findings of the study. The focus, however, is on the policy implications for state government that emerged from the research. The data has enabled Florida to examine the experience of its own community care programs in order to help develop a strategic plan for expanding resources, reforming its organization, and improving its performance. In addition to funding and organization of the state's long-term care system, the issue of targeting limited community resources to severely frail elders emerged as a major concern of this research. Although the various states differ widely in history, demographics, and structure, these policy issues should be of immediate concern to each of them.

Aged↗