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PubMed2003

QTc interval prolongation is a predictor of future strokes in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: QTc interval prolongation is a predictor of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in general populations and in patients with diabetes. The aim of this study was to investigate the predictors of stroke in patients with type 2 diabetes, with particular emphasis on the independent role of QT interval parameters. METHODS: We carried out a long-term follow-up study with 471 type 2 diabetics. Several clinical, laboratory, ECG, and echocardiographic variables were recorded at baseline. Predictive factors for stroke were evaluated by Kaplan-Meier estimation of survival curves and by univariate and multivariate Cox survival analyses. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 57 months (range, 2 to 84 months), 40 incident strokes were observed. QTc interval prolongation (>or=470 ms1/2) was an independent predictor of stroke, with adjusted hazard ratios ranging from 2.2 to 2.9 (95% confidence intervals, 1.1 to 6.0). Other independent factors associated with stroke were older age; the presence of cerebrovascular disease at baseline; increased 24-hour proteinuria, serum triglycerides, and left ventricular mass; and decreased high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Excluding patients with previous cerebrovascular disease from the analysis did not change the results significantly. CONCLUSIONS: QTc interval prolongation is a predictor of future stroke in patients with type 2 diabetes. Intervention studies are needed to assess whether this factor could be modified.

Adult↗

PubMed2004

Predictors of neurocardiogenic injury after subarachnoid hemorrhage.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) frequently results in myocardial necrosis with release of cardiac enzymes. Historically, this necrosis has been attributed to coronary artery disease, coronary vasospasm, or oxygen supply-demand mismatch. Experimental evidence, however, indicates that excessive release of norepinephrine from the myocardial sympathetic nerves is the most likely cause. We hypothesized that myocardial necrosis after SAH is a neurally mediated process that is dependent on the severity of neurological injury. METHODS: Consecutive patients admitted with SAH were enrolled prospectively. Predictor variables reflecting demographic (age, sex, body surface area), hemodynamic (heart rate, systolic blood pressure), treatment (phenylephrine dose), and neurological (Hunt-Hess score) factors were recorded. Serial cardiac troponin I measurements and echocardiography were performed on days 1, 3, and 6 after enrollment. Troponin level was treated as a dichotomous outcome variable. We performed univariate and multivariate analyses on the relationships between the predictor variables and troponin level. RESULTS: The study included 223 patients with an average age of 54 years. Twenty percent of the subjects had troponin I levels >1.0 microg/L (range, 0.3 to 50 microg/L). By multivariate logistic regression, a Hunt-Hess score >2, female sex, larger body surface area and left ventricular mass, lower systolic blood pressure, and higher heart rate and phenylephrine dose were independent predictors of troponin elevation. CONCLUSIONS: The degree of neurological injury as measured by the Hunt-Hess grade is a strong, independent predictor of myocardial necrosis after SAH. This finding supports the hypothesis that cardiac injury after SAH is a neurally mediated process.

Adult↗

PubMed2007

Predictors of outcome in patients with cerebral venous thrombosis and intracerebral hemorrhage.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Although intracerebral hemorrhages are frequent in patients with cerebral venous thrombosis, and lead to worse outcome, predictors of outcome in cerebral venous thrombosis patients with intracerebral hemorrhages have never been evaluated in adequately powered studies. METHODS: This study was conducted as a part of the International Study on Cerebral Vein and Dural Sinus Thrombosis. We evaluated predictors of outcome in cerebral venous thrombosis patients who had an "early intracerebral hemorrhage," ie, intracerebral hemorrhages already present at time of diagnosis of cerebral venous thrombosis by a logistic regression analysis, with a modified Rankin scale 3 to 6 at month 6 as dependent variable. The same analysis was performed with "delayed intracerebral hemorrhages," ie, intracerebral hemorrhages that occurred after the diagnosis of cerebral venous thrombosis, as dependent variable. RESULTS: Of 624 patients recruited in International Study on Cerebral Vein and Dural Sinus Thrombosis, 245 (39%) had an early intracerebral hemorrhage: at month 6, 51 (21%) of them had a modified Rankin Scale 3 to 6. Independent predictors of having modified Rankin scale 3 to 6 at month 6 were older age (adjusted odds ratio for 1-year increase in age, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.08); male gender (adjusted odds ratio, 3.25; 95% CI, 1.29 to 8.16); having a deep cerebral venous system thrombosis (adjusted odds ratio, 5.43; 95% CI, 1.67 to 17.61) or a right lateral sinus thrombosis (adjusted odds ratio, 2.56; 95% CI, 1.03 to 6.40); and having a motor deficit (adjusted odds ratio, 2.94; 95% CI, 1.21 to 7.10). Of the 36 patients who had a delayed intracerebral hemorrhage, those who had a modified Rankin scale 3 to 6 at month 6 were less likely to have received heparin at the acute stage, and more likely to have had early intracerebral hemorrhage. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with early intracerebral hemorrhage, those who were older, men, had a thrombosis of the deep cerebral venous system or of the right lateral sinus, and a motor deficit were at higher risk for death or dependency at month 6. This subgroup of patients with predictors of poor outcome can be the target for new therapeutic strategies.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1993

Volume of intracerebral hemorrhage. A powerful and easy-to-use predictor of 30-day mortality.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to determine the 30-day mortality and morbidity of intracerebral hemorrhage in a large metropolitan population and to determine the most important predictors of 30-day outcome. METHODS: We reviewed the medical records and computed tomographic films for all cases of spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage in Greater Cincinnati during 1988. Independent predictors of 30-day mortality were determined using univariate and multivariate statistical analyses. RESULTS: The 30-day mortality for the 188 cases of intracerebral hemorrhage was 44%, with half of deaths occurring within the first 2 days of onset. Volume of intracerebral hemorrhage was the strongest predictor of 30-day mortality for all locations of intracerebral hemorrhage. Using three categories of parenchymal hemorrhage volume (0 to 29 cm3, 30 to 60 cm3, and 61 cm3 or more), calculated by a quick and easy-to-use ellipsoid method, and two categories of the Glasgow Coma Scale (9 or more and 8 or less), 30-day mortality was predicted correctly with a sensitivity of 96% and a specificity of 98%. Patients with a parenchymal hemorrhage volume of 60 cm3 or more on their initial computed tomogram and a Glasgow Coma Scale score of 8 or less had a predicted 30-day mortality of 91%. Patients with a volume of less than 30 cm3 and a Glasgow Coma Scale score of 9 or more had a predicted 30-day mortality of 19%. Only one of the 71 patients with a volume of parenchymal hemorrhage of 30 cm3 or more could function independently at 30 days. CONCLUSIONS: Volume of intracerebral hemorrhage, in combination with the initial Glasgow Coma Scale score, is a powerful and easy-to-use predictor of 30-day mortality and morbidity in patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage.

Adult↗

PubMed1995

Predictors of early deterioration and mortality in black Americans with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Black Americans with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (SICH) may have unique clinical characteristics that affect outcome. The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic value of clinical characteristics and initial CT scan for outcome in black Americans with SICH. METHODS: Clinical and demographic data were extracted from the charts of 182 consecutive black Americans admitted for SICH diagnosed by clinical criteria and initial CT scan. Hemorrhage volumes were calculated from admission CT scans by a computerized method. Univariate and multiple logistic regression analyses were performed to determine independent predictors of early deterioration (defined as a decrease from an initial Glasgow Coma Scale score > 12 by > or = 4 points within 24 hours from presentation) and mortality. RESULTS: Both hemorrhage volume and ventricular extension were significant, independent predictors of early deterioration (odds ratio [OR], 6.78; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.89 to 24.35 and OR, 4.67; 95% CI, 1.30 to 16.72, respectively) and mortality (OR, 6.66; 95% CI, 2.85 to 15.58 and OR, 4.23; 95% CI, 1.82 to 9.82, respectively). A Glasgow Coma Scale score < or = 12 also predicted mortality (OR, 3.23; 95% CI, 1.46 to 7.14). Initial mean arterial pressure was not an independent predictor of early deterioration or mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Hemorrhage volume and ventricular extension are the best predictors of early deterioration and mortality in black Americans with SICH.

Black People↗

PubMed1999

Predictors of acute hospital costs for treatment of ischemic stroke in an academic center.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: We sought to determine predictors of acute hospital costs in patients presenting with acute ischemic stroke to an academic center using a stroke management team to coordinate care. METHODS: Demographic and clinical data were prospectively collected on 191 patients consecutively admitted with acute ischemic stroke. Patients were classified by insurance status, premorbid modified Rankin scale, stroke location, stroke severity (National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score), and presence of comorbidities. Detailed hospital charge data were converted to cost by application of department-specific cost-to-charge ratios. Physician's fees were not included. A stepwise multiple regression analysis was computed to determine the predictors of total hospital cost. RESULTS: Median length of stay was 6 days (range, 1 to 63 days), and mortality was 3%. Median hospital cost per discharge was $4408 (range, $1199 to $59 799). Fifty percent of costs were for room charges, 19% for stroke evaluation, 21% for medical management, and 7% for acute rehabilitation therapies. Sixteen percent were admitted to an intensive care unit. Length of stay accounted for 43% of the variance in total cost. Other independent predictors of cost included stroke severity, heparin treatment, atrial fibrillation, male sex, ischemic cardiac disease, and premorbid functional status. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that the major predictors of acute hospital costs of stroke in this environment are length of stay, stroke severity, cardiac disease, male sex, and use of heparin. Room charges accounted for the majority of costs, and attempts to reduce the cost of stroke evaluation would be of marginal value. Efforts to reduce acute costs should be monitored for potential cost shifting or a negative impact on quality of care.

Academic Medical Centers↗

PubMed2005

Predictors of low cardiac output syndrome after isolated aortic valve surgery.

BACKGROUND: Low cardiac output syndrome (LCOS), defined as the need for postoperative intraaortic balloon pump or inotropic support for >30 minutes in the intensive care unit, remains a relatively common complication of aortic valve (AV) surgery. The aim of this study is to identify the preoperative predictors of LCOS in patients undergoing isolated AV surgery. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a retrospective review of data prospectively entered into an institutional database. Between 1990 and 2003, 2255 patients underwent isolated AV surgery with no other concomitant cardiac surgery. The independent predictors of LCOS and operative mortality (OM) were determined by stepwise logistic regression analysis. The overall prevalence of LCOS was 3.9%. The independent predictors of LCOS were (odds ratio in parentheses) renal failure (5.0), earlier year of operation (4.4), left ventricular ejection fraction <40% (3.6), shock (3.2), female gender (2.8), and increasing age (1.02). Overall OM was 2.9%. The OM was higher in patients who experienced LCOS (38% versus 1.5%; P<0.001). The independent predictors of mortality were (odds ratio in parentheses) preoperative renal failure (8.3), urgency of surgery (3.4), previous stroke (2.9), congestive heart failure (2.6), previous cardiac surgery (2.3), hypertension (1.7), and small AV size (1.3). CONCLUSIONS: Low-output syndrome is associated with significantly increased morbidity and mortality. Novel strategies to preserve renal function, optimization of preexisting heart failure symptoms, and avoidance of prosthesis-patient mismatch may reduce the incidence of LCOS and lead to improved results after AV surgery.

Aged↗

PubMed2006

Predictors of early neurocognitive deficits in low-risk patients undergoing on-pump coronary artery bypass surgery.

BACKGROUND: Postoperative cognitive deficits (POCDs) are a source of morbidity and occur frequently even in low-risk patients undergoing cardiac surgery. Predictors of neurocognitive deficits can identify potentially modifiable risk factors as well as high-risk patients in whom alternate revascularization strategies may be considered. METHODS AND RESULTS: 448 patients undergoing coronary surgery (coronary artery bypass graft [CABG]) underwent standardized preoperative and postoperative neurocognitive testing as part of 2 randomized trials evaluating the effects of mild hypothermia during coronary surgery. Prospectively collected data were used to identify univariate predictors of POCDs and multivariable logistic regression models were constructed. Models were bootstrapped 1000 times. POCDs occurred in 59% of patients. Significant univariate predictors included intraoperative normothermia, impaired left ventricular (LV) function, higher educational level, elevated serum creatinine and reduced creatinine clearance, prolonged intubation time, intensive care unit (ICU) stay, and hospital stay. Advanced age, presence of carotid disease, and cardiopulmonary bypass time were not associated with increased POCDs in this cohort. Multivariable modeling identified intraoperative normothermia (odds ratio [95% confidence interval] -1.15 [1.01, 1.31]), poor LV function (1.53 [1.02, 2.30]), and elevated preoperative creatinine (1.01 [1.00 to 1.03] for every 1 mmol/L increase), prolonged (>24 hours) ICU stay (1.88 [1.27 to 2.79]), and higher educational level (1.52 [1.01 to 2.28]) as independent predictors of POCD occurrence. CONCLUSIONS: Mild hypothermia, in the intraoperative and perioperative period, may be a protective strategy for the prevention of POCDs. Patients with elevated pre-operative creatinine and poor LV function carry a higher risk of POCDs and may benefit from revascularization strategies other than conventional on-pump CABG.

Aged↗

PubMed2001

Peak flow as predictor of overall mortality in asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Lung function is a strong predictor of overall mortality in asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). FEV1 is considered to be the "gold standard," whereas peak expiratory flow (PEF) is mostly used in absence of FEV1 measurements. We compared the predictive power of PEF and FEV1, measured after maximal bronchodilation, which included a short course of oral corticosteroids. The study population comprised 491 asthmatics and 1,095 subjects with COPD. Pulmonary function tests were performed between 1983 and 1988, and survival data were obtained by September 1997, when 127 asthmatics and 723 subjects with COPD had died. Predictors of survival were examined by Cox proportional hazards analyses. After controlling for age, smoking, sex, and body mass index, we found best PEF to be at least equal to best FEV1 as predictor of overall mortality in subjects with COPD. The predictive power of best PEF was in part maintained after controlling for best FEV1. In asthma, best FEV1 seemed to be a better predictor of mortality than best PEF. Despite close correlation to FEV1, PEF apparently provides independent prognostic information in patients with COPD. This may be due to PEF and FEV1 reflecting different components of COPD, i.e., chronic bronchitis, small airways disease, and emphysema. Furthermore, extrapulmonary components such as muscle mass and general "vigour" probably affect PEF to a greater extent than they affect FEV1.

Asthma↗

PubMed1991

Measurement of breathlessness during exercise in asthmatics. Predictor variables, reliability, and responsiveness.

The purpose of this study was to determine the predictor variables for breathlessness and to investigate the criteria of reliability and responsiveness for measuring breathlessness during progressive, incremental exercise on the cycle ergometer. We studied a heterogeneous group of patients with stable asthma (mean +/- SEM age, 46 +/- 4 yr) for four visits at weekly intervals. Predictor variables were determined at the first visit. Nine independent physiologic variables were obtained at each minute during exercise; the Borg rating of breathlessness (range 0 to 10) was used as the dependent variable. The regression model relating the physiologic parameters to the Borg rating of breathlessness was highly significant (model F = 43.4; p = 0.0001). Backward elimination selected the strongest predictors of the Borg rating: peak inspiratory flow (VI); tidal volume (VT)/FVC; frequency of respiration (f); and peak inspiratory mouth pressures (Pm). These four variables explained 63% of the variance in the rating of dyspnea. Each of the four variables exhibited a linear relationship with the Borg rating. Test-retest reliability was assessed by comparing results at the first and second visits. Individual slopes (except for VT/FVC) and intercepts for the four predictor variables versus Borg ratings were highly reliable. The slope for work intensity (watts) and Borg ratings, but not the intercept, was highly reliable. Responsiveness was evaluated by randomly administering inhaled methacholine or inhaled metaproterenol, alternately, at the third and fourth visits to induce acute changes in lung function before exercise.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Adult↗

PubMed2003

Nucleolar diameter and microvascular factors as independent predictors of mortality from malignant melanoma of the choroid and ciliary body.

PURPOSE: To determine whether nucleolar diameter and microvascular factors are independent predictors of mortality in malignant uveal melanoma of the choroid and ciliary body. METHOD: A population-based retrospective cohort study was conducted of melanoma-specific and all-cause mortality in 167 consecutive patients who had an eye enucleated because of choroidal and ciliary body melanoma from 1972 through 1981. The largest nucleoli were measured from digital photographs of silver-stained tumors along a central 5-mm-wide linear field parallel to the base of the tumor. The mean of the 10 largest nucleoli (MLN) was calculated. Microvascular loops and networks and microvascular density (MVD) were assessed. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses were performed. Associations between MLN and other variables were determined. RESULTS: The MLN could be determined in 126 (75%) melanomas. It ranged from 2.60 to 6.18 microm (median, 4.05). The association of large MLN with the presence of epithelioid cells (P = 0.017) and high MVD (P = 0.0053) was statistically significant. MLN was not significantly associated with tumor diameter and microvascular loops and networks. The 10-year melanoma-specific survival decreased with MLN (0.74, 0.60, and 0.42, arranged in tertiles; P = 0.0060), presence of loops and networks (P = 0.0001), and increasing MVD (P = 0.0001). By Cox regression, MLN was an independent predictor of survival, when adjusting in turn for presence of epithelioid cells, loops and networks, and MVD. In multivariate models with MVD, the independent prognostic information carried by MLN decreased, but the model as a whole was a better predictor of survival. The magnitude of this effect depended on whether MLN was modeled as a continuous or categorical variable. CONCLUSIONS: In this population-based data set, MLN and microvascular loops and networks were unrelated, independent predictors of survival. MLN and MVD were found to be partially interrelated. Multivariate models that included MVD in addition to MLN fitted better with observed melanoma-specific survival than models that excluded MVD.

Antigens, CD34↗

PubMed1990

Natural history of male psychological health, XII: a 45-year study of predictors of successful aging at age 65.

In order to determine important predictors of psychosocial and physical vitality in late midlife, the authors examined the lives of 173 men prospectively studied from ages 18 to 65. Biopsychosocial predictors--gathered before age 50--were examined for their correlation with three outcome variables measured at age 65: physical health, mental health, and life satisfaction. Extent of tranquilizer use before age 50 was the most powerful negative predictor of both mental and physical health outcomes at age 65. Another important predictor for mental health was maturity of defenses before age 50. Paradoxically, warm childhood environment made an important independent contribution to predicting physical--not mental--health.

Adaptation, Psychological↗

PubMed2003

Rates and predictors of rehospitalization among formerly hospitalized adolescents.

OBJECTIVE: The authors examined rates and predictors of rehospitalization among 180 adolescents followed up for up to 10.3 years after discharge from an inpatient psychiatric unit. METHODS: In this prospective, naturalistic study, demographic variables, including gender, race, and age, and psychiatric variables, including diagnoses, prehospitalization suicide attempts, and previous hospitalizations, were examined as potential predictors of rehospitalization. Information about rehospitalizations was repeatedly assessed and verified with treatment records. RESULTS: During the follow-up period, 79 adolescents (44 percent) had one or more rehospitalizations. By six months after discharge, 19 percent of the adolescents had been rehospitalized. The mean time to first rehospitalization was estimated to be 5.7 years. Univariate analyses revealed significant differences between adolescents who were rehospitalized and those who were not in terms of age, presence of an affective disorder, and presence of a comorbid psychiatric disorder. In the multivariate predictor model, age and the presence of an affective disorder were the only significant predictors of rehospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: Clinicians should examine risk of rehospitalization before discharge, especially for younger patients and those with depression. Future research must focus on methods of intervention for this high-risk group.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1993

Predictors of mortality, morbidity, and disability in a cohort of infants < or = 28 weeks' gestation.

This study attempted to identify predictors for mortality, morbidity, disability, and educational handicap at age 4 years in a cohort of 194 infants born at 23 to 28 weeks' gestation at one regionalized tertiary center from 1983 to 1986. Forty-one infants died (21%); standardized neurodevelopmental and functional assessments were conducted on 149 of 153 (97%) survivors at a mean age of 52 months. Five significant predictors of death were identified with logistic regression analysis: gestational age 23 to 26 weeks, intraventricular hemorrhage grades 3 or 4, male gender, five-minute Apgar < or = 3, and absence of prophylactic calf lung surfactant extract. Significant predictors of neurodevelopmental morbidity included sepsis, male gender, and nonwhite race. Significant predictors of disability at age four included neurodevelopmental impairment and severe retinopathy of prematurity. Low socioeconomic status, nonwhite race and male gender were predictive of educational handicap. These findings suggest that outcomes may have distinct pathophysiologies. The role of biomedical events appears strongest for death.

Child, Preschool↗

PubMed1992

Dental predictors of high caries increment in children.

A comprehensive set of dental variables was investigated to find the "best" combination of predictors for high caries increment in 7/8-year-old and 10/11-year-old children. Four populations with widely different caries prevalence were studied. Logistic regression analysis supplied multiple-input models by stepwise selection of predictors. A "low number of sound primary molars" was the best and most consistent predictor of high caries increment. The second best predictors were "high numbers of pre-cavity lesions on permanent first molars" (discolored pits and fissures in the younger age group and white spots on the smooth parts of buccolingual surfaces in the older age group). Inclusion of radiological variables did not substantially increase the quality of prediction. For practical application, models with various multiple inputs selected by stepwise procedures were compared with "fixed" three-input models. These three-input models resulted in predictive quality nearly equal to those of the multiple models. Traditional one-input models, containing DMFT or dmft, were inferior to the three-input models, particularly in the older age class. The lower the caries prevalence of the source data, the better was the prediction. As a summary measure characterizing the predictive performance of a model, we used the index "area under the receiver operating characteristic curve" A. For the 1984 data and the three-input models, the area was approximately 80%, and for the 1972 data, the area was 65-70%.

Age Factors↗

PubMed2001

Missing predictors in models of effect size.

Missing data occur frequently in meta-analysis. Reviewers inevitably face decisions about how to handle missing data, especially when predictors in a model of effect size are missing from some of the identified studies. Commonly used methods for missing data such as complete case analysis and mean substitution often yield biased estimates. This article briefly reviews the particular problems missing predictors cause in a meta-analysis, discusses the properties of commonly used missing data methods, and provides suggestions for ways to handle missing predictors when estimating effect size models. Maximum likelihood methods for multivariate normal data and multiple imputation hold the most promise for handling missing predictors in meta-analysis. These two model-based methods apply to a broad set of data situations, are based on sound statistical theory, and utilize all information available to obtain efficient estimators.

Data Interpretation, Statistical↗

PubMed2026

Preoperative Proximal Migration of the Radial Head as an Independent Predictor of Suboptimal Outcomes After Osteochondral Autograft Transplantation for Capitellar Osteochondritis Dissecans: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Osteochondral autograft transplantation (OAT) is widely performed for capitellar osteochondritis dissecans (OCD). However, preoperative predictors of suboptimal postoperative outcomes remain unclear. PURPOSE/HYPOTHESIS: The authors aimed to evaluate clinical outcomes after OAT for capitellar OCD and identify preoperative risk factors associated with suboptimal outcomes. They hypothesized that radiographic indicators of disease severity, including preoperative proximal migration of the radial head, lesion size, and lateral wall disruption, would be associated with suboptimal postoperative clinical outcomes. STUDY DESIGN: Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. METHODS: The records of adolescent athletes who underwent OAT for capitellar OCD with a minimum 2-year follow-up were retrospectively reviewed. Clinical outcomes included elbow range of motion (ROM) and Timmerman-Andrews (T-A) score. A suboptimal outcome was defined as a postoperative T-A score <160. Preoperative radiographs were used to measure proximal migration of the radial head relative to the coronoid process, hypertrophy of the radial head, OCD lesion area, and a 5-grade lateral wall disruption classification; measurement reliability was assessed. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent predictors of a suboptimal outcome, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to determine the optimal cutoff value for proximal migration. RESULTS: A total of 69 elbows (mean age, 13.6 years; mean follow-up, 48 months) were included. ROM and T-A scores improved significantly after OAT, and all athletes returned to any sports. Of these, 50 elbows (72%) achieved good outcomes, whereas 19 (28%) had suboptimal outcomes. Preoperative proximal migration was significantly greater in the suboptimal outcome group compared with the good outcome group (mean, 2.1 ± 2.3 vs 0.5 ± 1.7 mm; P = .002), as were lesion area (mean, 70 ± 16 vs 58 ± 20 mm2; P = .02) and lateral wall disruption grade (median, 5 vs 3; P = .01). On multivariate analysis, proximal migration of the radial head was the only independent predictor of a suboptimal outcome (adjusted OR, 1.47 per 1-mm increase; 95% CI, 1.03-2.09; P = .033). ROC analysis showed an area under the curve of 0.72 with an optimal cutoff of 2.2 mm (sensitivity, 56%; specificity, 84%). CONCLUSION: OAT resulted in significant clinical improvement in adolescents with capitellar OCD; however, 28% of patients were classified as having suboptimal outcomes. Preoperative proximal migration of the radial head is an independent predictor of a suboptimal postoperative outcome. A value >2.2 mm may indicate advanced radiocapitellar incongruity, a condition in which OAT may be less effective.

Humans↗

PubMed1993

Microbiological predictors of caries risk.

The prediction of caries risk has been of long-standing interest. Generally, few of the tests involving oral bacteria or their products have become accepted. Presently, the main focus is on counts of lactobacilli (L) and mutans streptococci (MS). Due to their positive numerical association with human caries and the linkage of this association to carbohydrate consumption, counts of L and MS may, potentially, serve not only as a caries risk predictor but also as an indicator of carbohydrate consumption, another caries-risk factor. The value of counts of L and MS as caries-risk predictors has been evaluated by means of studies providing data on test sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values. These and other studies indicate that their use for the prediction of caries risk of individuals is not possible but is more promising for that of the caries risk of groups (e.g., identification of high-caries-risk subjects); further, the prediction of low caries risk may be more reliable than that of high caries risk. The influence of test variables on the test results has been discussed. These include the level of caries increment, subject age, methods of caries evaluation, use of saliva or dental plaque as test sample, sampling frequency, type of bacterial growth medium, and the use of simplified methods rather than conventional laboratory procedures for microbial enumeration. An approach to optimize the use of microbiological caries-risk predictors in different populations as well as their use in conjunction with other caries-risk predictors has been discussed. The latter include the incipient caries lesion or past caries experience and salivary buffering capacity and flow rate. Due to the multifactorial nature of caries etiology, it is expected that multivariate approaches rather than the use of single parameters may improve caries risk prediction for individuals as well as groups of subjects.

Colony Count, Microbial↗