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Effects of growth hormone on bone and muscle.

The decade since the initial availability of recombinant growth hormone (GH) has seen an increase in our understanding of the effects of GH on muscle and bone. Adult GH deficiency (GHD) is associated with osteopenia, the severity of which is related to three factors: the timing, age of onset and severity of GHD. Epidemiological data suggest that this osteopenia is associated with an increased risk of fracture. The impact of GH replacement therapy on bone mineral density (BMD) appears to be related to a large number of interrelated factors, including the dose and duration of therapy, timing of onset of GHD, skeletal site, degree of osteopenia at baseline, and age and gender of the patient. Overall, the effect of GH replacement on BMD in the majority of patients is beneficial. As yet, however, no data are available that demonstrate a reduction in fracture rate following GH therapy. In comparison with normal individuals, GH-deficient individuals have reduced lean body mass and muscle strength, both of which increase within 12 months of GH therapy. Therefore, the effects of GH replacement on muscle and bone in GH-deficient individuals are significant and beneficial, although the longer-term effects of GH replacement in terms of reducing the number of fractures and prevention of frailty in old age are not yet established. The effects of GH on bone and muscle in GH-replete individuals have been studied less fully. While GH therapy modulates markers of bone resorption and formation, its effects in patients with idiopathic osteoporosis are disappointing, with oestrogen therapy or bisphosphonates proving to be more effective in post-menopausal women. To date, however, there have been no GH treatment trials of adequate duration (longer than 18 months), and it remains possible that longer-term trials may demonstrate more profound effects. The effects of GH therapy on muscle have been examined in normal elderly individuals. Generally, the doses used have been supraphysiological and associated with an unacceptable incidence of side-effects. GH therapy has resulted in an increase in lean body mass, but functional ability and strength have not improved in the majority of studies. Thus, clear-cut beneficial effects of GH on muscle and bone in GH-replete individuals have not been demonstrated. It seems unlikely that normal elderly individuals will benefit significantly from GH therapy, but frail individuals or those with musculoskeletal or neuromuscular pathology are potential candidates for study.

Adult↗

Pathogenesis of osteoporotic hip fractures.

Osteoporosis is characterized late in the course of the disease by an increased risk of fracture, particularly in the elderly. It occurs in both sexes, affecting approximately 8 million women and 2 million men aged > or = 50 years (1). While low bone density is a predictor of fractures, it is not the only determinant of fracture risk. Other factors include advanced age, altered bone quality, a personal or family history of falls, frailty, poor eyesight, debilitating diseases, and high bone turnover. A diet with sufficient calcium and vitamin D is important to minimize bone loss and, along with regular exercise, to maintain muscle strength. Bisphosphonates have been shown to reduce the risk of hip fracture. For elderly patients, the use of hip protectors may be used as a treatment of last resort. Regardless of the age of the patient, individual patient risk factors must be considered to target appropriate treatment and prevent fracture.

Accidental Falls↗

Complementary medicine and older people: past research and future directions.

Due to the natural aging processes, older people are particularly susceptible to a range of chronic health conditions. However, despite that research has indicated that chronic health conditions and disability act as reliable predictors of complementary/alternative medicine (CAM) use, despite research evidence that older people are significant consumers of CAM, and regardless of the potential for CAM to enhance successful aging, reduce frailty, and increase independence and quality of life in older persons, older people's use of CAM therapies remains under-researched. This paper reviews what existing research literature is there on CAM use in older age; considers rates of and potential for use, features of and barriers to use, and economic, effectiveness and safety issues. From these beginnings, outlined is a wide-ranging research agenda on CAM and older people.

Aged↗

Human capital, schooling and health.

A consensus has been forged in the last decade that recent periods of sustained growth in total factor productivity and reduced poverty are closely associated with improvements in a population's child nutrition, adult health, and schooling, particularly in low-income countries. Estimates of the productive returns from these three forms of human capital investment are nonetheless qualified by a number of limitations in our data and analytical methods. This paper reviews the problems that occupy researchers in this field and summarizes accumulating evidence of empirical regularities. Social experiments must be designed to assess how randomized policy interventions motivate families and individuals to invest in human capital, and then measure the changed wage opportunities of those who have been induced to make these investments. Statistical estimation of wage functions that seek to represent the relationship between wage rates and a variety of human capital stocks may yield biased estimates of private rates of return from these investments for a variety of reasons. The paper summarizes several of these problems and illustrates how data and statistical methods can be used to deal with some of them. The measures of labor productivity and the proxies specified for schooling and adult health are first discussed, and then the functional relationships between human capital and wages are described. Three types of estimation problem are discussed: (1) bias due to omitted variables, such as ability or frailty; (2) bias due to the measurement of an aggregation of multiple sources of human capital, e.g. genetic and socially reproducible variation, which may contribute to different gains in worker productivity; and (3) errors in measurement of the human capital stocks. Empirical examples and illustrative estimates are surveyed.

Educational Status↗

Replication studies in longevity: puzzling findings in Danish centenarians at the 3'APOB-VNTR locus.

In Danes we replicated the 3'APOB-VNTR gene/longevity association study previously carried out in Italians, by which the Small alleles (less than 35 repeats) had been identified as frailty alleles for longevity. In Danes, neither genotype nor allele frequencies differed between centenarians and 20-64-year-old subjects. However, when Danish and Italian data were compared, a significant difference (p = 0.0004) was found between the frequencies of Small alleles in youths, which disappeared in centenarians (p = 0.290). Furthermore, the demographic-genetic approach revealed in Danes a significant gene-sex interaction relevant to Long alleles (more than 37 repeats). The different findings in Denmark and Italy suggest that gene/longevity associations are population-specific, and heavily affected by the population-specific genetic and environmental history.

Adult↗

Evaluation of natural transmission of bovine leukaemia virus within dairy herds of Argentina.

The purpose of this study was to describe patterns of seroconversion to bovine leukaemia virus and to estimate the main parameters needed for future model building. A longitudinal study was carried out between February 1999 and November 2001 in seven commercial dairy farms in Argentina using 1535 lactating cows. Time-interval parameters were analysed using a parametric survival model with shared frailty, time until infection was analysed using a Bayesian interval-censoring survival model and the infection transmission parameter (beta) was estimated by a generalized linear model. The reproduction ratio (R0) was calculated. In total, 1000 cows tested positive and 494 tested negative. The predicted median age at infection was 4.6 years for seroconverted cows. For infected herds, the proportion of positive calves was as high as for infected cows and showed a large proportion of infected breeding heifers. Peaks in the overall average incidence per season-year were observed during autumn and spring. Results reveal that the period around parturition is a high-risk period. Moreover, heavily infected herds seem to have an increased proportion of young stock infected. The overall beta was estimated as 2.9/year (95% CI 1.9-3.7) and combined with a relatively long infectious period it resulted in a high reproductive ratio (R0=8.9). Therefore, a high effectiveness of control measures needs to be achieved to eradicate the disease.

Animal Husbandry↗

Simulation studies of phase III clinical trials to test the efficacy of a candidate HIV-1 vaccine.

One question of particular importance in phase III HIV vaccine trials is the choice of efficacy measure (EM) to validly and precisely estimate the true vaccinal efficacy. Traditional EMs, based on hazard rate ratio (HRR) or cumulative incidence ratio (CIR) are time-sensitive to mode of vaccine action and population heterogeneities. Through Monte-Carlo simulation, the performance of HRR and CIR based EMs are examined across different trial designs and vaccine and population characteristics. A new EM based on log-spline hazard regression (HARE) is proposed. Given that vaccinal properties (mode of action, time-lag, waning) are unknown a priori, appropriate selection of EM is problematic, and HRR and CIR can be unreliable to estimate the true maximum efficacy of candidate products. Non-random sexual mixing can exacerbate biases in HRR and CIR. HARE can offer valid estimation across different modes of vaccine action and in presence of frailty effects, contrary to its traditional counterparts. Our simulation studies highlight the weaknesses of widely used EMs while offering guidelines for trial design and suggesting new avenues for statistical analysis.

AIDS Vaccines↗

Current concepts in the prevention of Alzheimer's disease.

Alzheimer's disease represents a significant challenge to the aging population. Since most estimates suggest that AD has a multifactorial etiology, the challenge to find preventative approaches is particularly great. With the aging of the population and the very high incidence from the eighth decade on, the challenge is further enhanced by the need to think of relatively safe interventions given the relative frailty of this elderly population. The need to find safe treatments, or ones with well-understood safety profiles, has led to the examination of known agents for potential dementia-preventing properties. Data supporting these interventions comes from observational studies, laboratory analyses, and clinical trials. Potential mechanisms for prevention of AD include anti-inflammatory and antioxidant approaches. Modulation of risk factors associated with cardiac disease may also reduce the risk of AD. Known agents have been examined for their potential to modify amyloid pathology. Trial designs to address prevention of AD include both primary and secondary prevention studies as well designs to assess slowing disease progression. Information can also be gathered when dementia evaluation is added to ongoing studies. As results from these studies becoming available, we will be able to refine our approach to managing this disease.

Adult↗

Clinical characteristics of older psychiatric inpatients with borderline personality disorder.

This case study investigation considers typical and potentially unique characteristics of older (> 50 years) Borderline Personality Disorder (BPD) patients and describes their impact on an inpatient psychiatric unit encompassing a therapeutic milieu setting and multidisciplinary treatment teams. The somatization of symptoms, in particular, and the associated therapeutic, medical, and psychopharmacological interventions, result in prolonged and elaborate treatments that undermine clinical and personal boundaries, clash with managed care directives, and engender frustrating and elusive transferential and countertransferential reactions. Moreover, the guilt-inducing nature of somatization and physical frailty in older individuals, combined with the well-documented ability of BPD patients, regardless of age, to incite stormy and 'split' relationships, are linked characteristics that may describe a diagnostic subtype of BPD. Rather than suggesting a diminution of psychopathology as BPD patients age, the results of this investigation indicate that their persistent difficulties may only be altering in content and in pathological adaptation to changing needs.

Adaptation, Psychological↗

Differential risk factor profiles for indoor and outdoor falls in older people living at home in Nottingham, UK.

The objectives of this work were: to estimate the incidence of falls within an at-risk group of community-dwelling elderly people; to assess the risk factors associated with incident falls; to examine the effects of incident falls on survival. A random sample of 1042 community-dwelling older people in Nottingham (UK) were interviewed in 1985 and survivors re-interviewed at 4-year follow-up. The at-risk group was defined as survivors who had not fallen in the year prior to the baseline interview (n = 444). One-year fall recall was assessed using a questionnaire and included physical health, mobility, prescribed drugs and time spent walking. Body-weight and handgrip strength were measured. Eight-year post-fall mortality was recorded. In 1989 117 new fallers were identified. These people fell a total of 233 times in the year prior to re-interview (incidence rate: 524.8 per 1000 person-years at risk; 95% confidence intervals (CI): 473.3-576.3). People aged less than 75 were more likely to fall outdoors than people aged 75 and over (chi2 = 5.715, df = 1, p = 0.017). Risk factors associated with falling were: being less healthy (odds ratio (OR): 0.55; p = 0.052); having a walking speed in the range stroll/very slow/nonambulant compared with normal/brisk/fast (OR: 1.99; p<0.01); and number of prescribed drugs (OR: 1.30; p = 0.01). When analysed separately, indoor and outdoor falls presented differential risk profiles, with evidence that indoor falls were associated with frailty, while outdoor falls were associated with compromised health status in more active people. In 8-year post-fall monitoring, multiple (3+) fallers and indoor fallers showed a significant excess mortality. The differences in risk factors for, and prognoses following, indoor and outdoor falls, emphasise the complex interactions between intrinsic and extrinsic factors associated with falling among older people.

Accidental Falls↗

Acute middle ear infection in small children: a Bayesian analysis using multiple time scales.

The study is based on a sample of 965 children living in Oulu region (Finland), who were monitored for acute middle ear infections from birth to the age of two years. We introduce a nonparametrically defined intensity model for ear infections, which involves both fixed and time dependent covariates, such as calendar time, current age, length of breast-feeding time until present, or current type of day care. Unmeasured heterogeneity, which manifests itself in frequent infections in some children and rare in others and which cannot be explained in terms of the known covariates, is modelled by using individual frailty parameters. A Bayesian approach is proposed to solve the inferential problem. The numerical work is carried out by Monte Carlo integration (Metropolis-Hastings algorithm).

Acute Disease↗

Generalized proportional hazards model based on modified partial likelihood.

The proportional hazards (Cox) model is generalized by assuming that at any moment the ratio of hazard rates is depending not only on values of covariates but also on resources used until this moment. Relations with generalized multiplicative, frailty and linear transformation models are considered. A modified partial likelihood function is proposed, and properties of the estimators are investigated.

Humans↗

Parametric analysis for matched pair survival data.

Hougaard's (1986) bivariate Weibull distribution with positive stable frailties is applied to matched pairs survival data when either or both components of the pair may be censored and covariate vectors may be of arbitrary fixed length. When there is no censoring, we quantify the corresponding gain in Fisher information over a fixed-effects analysis. With the appropriate parameterization, the results take a simple algebraic form. An alternative marginal ("independence working model") approach to estimation is also considered. This method ignores the correlation between the two survival times in the derivation of the estimator, but provides a valid estimate of standard error. It is shown that when both the correlation between the two survival times is high, and the ratio of the within-pair variability to the between-pair variability of the covariates is high, the fixed-effects analysis captures most of the information about the regression coefficient but the independence working model does badly. When the correlation is low, and/or most of the variability of the covariates occurs between pairs, the reverse is true. The random effects model is applied to data on skin grafts, and on loss of visual acuity among diabetics. In conclusion some extensions of the methods are indicated and they are placed in a wider context of Generalized Estimation Equation methodology.

Epidemiologic Methods↗

Hierarchical-likelihood approach for mixed linear models with censored data.

Mixed linear models describe the dependence via random effects in multivariate normal survival data. Recently they have received considerable attention in the biomedical literature. They model the conditional survival times, whereas the alternative frailty model uses the conditional hazard rate. We develop an inferential method for the mixed linear model via Lee and Nelder's (1996) hierarchical-likelihood (h-likelihood). Simulation and a practical example are presented to illustrate the new method.

Animals↗

Molecular gerontology.

Evolutionary theory and empirical evidence from many lines of research suggest that ageing is a process of gradual accumulation of damage in cells and tissues of the body, leading eventually to frailty and increased risk from a spectrum of age-associated diseases. There are multiple kinds of damage that affect cells, ranging from mutations in DNA to oxidative attack on proteins by chemical by-products of normal cellular metabolism. In some ways the surprising thing is not that we age, but that we live as long as we do. The key to understanding longevity lies in the network of cell maintenance systems that cooperate to slow the accumulation of damage. Research has shown that long-lived species carry out cellular maintenance better than short-lived species, suggesting that enhancement of the body's natural maintenance systems may postpone aspects of ageing. Recognition that ageing results from accumulation of damage also points to a role for lifestyle interventions (e.g. nutrition and exercise) to help prevent damage or promote repair.

Aging↗

Geriatric nephrology units: the way of the future.

The emergence of the sub-speciality geriatric nephrology is an exciting development for the future. The main objectives should be to maximise patient independence and minimise deterioration and learn dependent behaviour in this population. To achieve these goals a holistic approach needs to be taken, to the patient, their environment and the efficacy of such units, and this can only be achieved using a multi-disciplinary team approach. In the creation of a geriatric nephrology unit it is important to identify the factors that cause frailty and, if possible, modify or prevent the initial decline using nutritional and other interventions. This requires careful monitoring, not only using the traditional markers of renal disease including urea and creatinine, but also using instruments that measure functional ability. These issues are discussed under the headings prevention, documentation and planning.

Geriatrics↗

A model of aging and a shape of the observed force of mortality.

A probabilistic model of aging is considered. It is based on the assumption that a random resource, a stochastic process of aging (wear) and the corresponding anti-aging process are embedded at birth. A death occurs when the accumulated wear exceeds the initial random resource. It is assumed that the anti-aging process decreases wear in each increment. The impact of environment (lifestyle) is also taken into account. The corresponding relations for the observed and the conditional hazard rate (force of mortality) are obtained. Similar to some demographic models, the deceleration of mortality phenomenon is explained via the concept of frailty. Simple examples are considered.

Aged↗

Design of panel studies for disease progression with multiple stages.

A panel study consists of individuals who have data collected at periodic follow-up visits or pre-specified time points following entry into the study. The objective of this paper is to consider design issues in a panel study when the response variable is the stage of disease, and with focus on the transition intensities. Important design issues include the choice of the time interval between follow-up visits and sample size considerations. We study the effects of time intervals between follow-up visits on the precision of the transition intensities estimators. We also consider the power of statistical tests on the ratio of transition intensities. Discussion is extended to incorporate heterogeneity in the population in which frailty is introduced to describe subject-specific transition intensities.

Data Interpretation, Statistical↗