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Multivariate analysis of risk factors for survival and relapse in chronic granulocytic leukemia following allogeneic marrow transplantation: impact of disease related variables (Sokal score).

Patients with chronic granulocytic leukemia (CGL) can be classified in different groups according to risk factors at diagnosis (Sokal). The aim of the present study was to assess the impact of Sokal's risk factors in 100 patients with CGL undergoing allogeneic BMT. Patients were in first chronic phase (CP) (n = 65), or with advanced disease (n = 35), grafted from an HLA-identical sibling following conditioning with cyclophosphamide and total body irradiation (TBI). Median follow up for survivors is 1783 days (429-3533 days). Variables recorded at diagnosis to calculate Sokal's prognostic index were: leukocyte, platelet and peripheral blood blast cell counts, age and spleen volume. The median value of the Sokal index was 0.87. Projected survival for all patients at 9 years was 28% (95% confidence limits (CL) 6-49), 48% (34-62) for first CP patients and 15% (0-36) for more than first CP patients (p = 0.04). Survival was 25% and 31% for all patients with a Sokal index of < 0.87/> or = (p = 0.07) and 55% vs 39% for first CP patients only (p = 0.03). The relapse rate was similar for patients with Sokal index < 0.87/> or = (41% vs 39%, p = 0.9) and this was also true for first CP patients (33% vs 26%, p = 0.8). In multivariate analysis, an interval between diagnosis and BMT of > 2 years was the most significant negative predictor for survival for the whole group of patients (p = 0.01) and more so for first CP patients (p = 0.0004).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Adolescent↗

Multivariate analysis of risk factors in stage 4 neuroblastoma patients over the age of one year treated with megatherapy and stem-cell transplantation: a report from the European Bone Marrow Transplantation Solid Tumor Registry.

PURPOSE: The European Bone Marrow Transplantation (EBMT) Solid Tumor Registry (STR) contains detailed information on children with advanced neuroblastoma who, after standard-dose induction chemotherapy and surgery, received myeloablative megatherapy (MGT) followed by stem-cell transplantation (SCT). This data base was analyzed to identify factors that predict event-free survival (EFS). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Eligibility criteria were stage IV neuroblastoma, age over 1 year at diagnosis, and no relapse before MGT/SCT. Between February 1978 and July 1992, 549 patients were registered by 36 European transplant centers. The median age at diagnosis was 36 months (range, 13 to 216 months) and the male-female ratio was 1:45. Before MGT, 157 patients were in complete remission (CR), 156 in very good partial remission (VGPR), and 208 in partial remission (PR), whereas 24 had had only a minor response (MR). One hundred ten of 546 patients had undergone two successive MGT procedures. The median observation time was 60 months (range, 12 to 187 months). RESULTS: Actuarial EFS is 26% at 5 years. Multivariate analysis by the Cox proportional hazards regression model included 529 patients with complete data sets. After adjustment for treatment duration before MGT and double MGT procedures, two adverse, independent risk factors that influenced EFS were identified: (1) persisting skeletal lesions before MGT as defined by technetium (99TC) scans and/or meta-iodobenzylguanidine (mIBG) scans (P = .004) and (2) persisting bone marrow involvement before MGT (P = .03). CONCLUSION: After induction treatment, persisting skeletal disease as defined above and persisting bone marrow involvement may be predictive of a particularly poor outcome. Physicians may consider this an additional important tool to decide the patient's management.

Adolescent↗

Long-term results with cyclosporine monotherapy in renal transplant patients: a multivariate analysis of risk factors.

There is little information on the long-term outcome of patients initially assigned to cyclosporine (CsA) monotherapy and requiring the addition of steroid therapy during follow-up. The aim of this report is to describe our experience with 143 first renal transplant recipients (120 cadaver transplants, 23 living donor transplants) randomized to receive CsA monotherapy as a treatment arm of three consecutive controlled clinical trials. Median follow-up was 86 months. Thirty-four percent of the patients remained on the original CsA monotherapy, whereas the remaining 66% required the addition of steroid therapy. Cumulative patient and graft survivals at 11 years were 0.89 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.83 to 0.95) and 0.62 (95% CI, 0.52 to 0.72), respectively. The 11-year graft survival for converted patients was 0.53 (95% CI, 0.39 to 0.67). Cumulative graft half-life was 19.9 +/- 3.47 (SE) years. According to the Cox model, variables at transplantation that correlated with a lower 11-year graft survival were yearly increases in age (relative risk [RR], 1. 04; P = 0.039), monthly increases in hemodialysis duration (RR, 1.01; P = 0.029), no blood transfusion before transplantation (RR, 1.99; P = 0.043), CsA administration in a double daily dose (RR, 2.35; P = 0.008), and a cadaver donor transplant (RR, 4.76; P = 0.039). Multivariate analysis of time-dependent variables showed that delayed graft function recovery (RR, 2.20; P = 0.019) and the need to add steroid and/or azathioprine therapy (RR, 5.28; P = 0.000) were also correlated with a lower graft survival. Patients who added steroid therapy developed infections (P < 0.001), cataracts (P < 0.001), cardiovascular complications (P = 0.004), and arterial hypertension (P = 0.024) more frequently than patients remaining on CsA monotherapy. Patients administered CsA in a single daily dose received significantly less CsA over the years (P = 0.0042) than patients administered CsA in two divided doses. They also showed a trend toward greater creatinine clearance levels, although not statistically significant. In conclusion, this analysis showed that in patients assigned to CsA therapy alone, good long-term patient and graft survival probabilities can be obtained. In approximately one third of the patients, the use of steroids could be avoided for up to 11 years, and these patients had a better long-term outcome than those who required the addition of steroid therapy. Finally, in patients administered CsA in a single daily dose, the possibility of reducing CsA dosage probably led to better intrarenal hemodynamics with improving creatinine clearances.

Adult↗

Prognostic factors effecting on recurrence of urinary stone disease: a multivariate analysis of everyday patient parameters.

INTRODUCTION: Since comprehensive urometabolic analyses are currently more preferred for the patients with recurrent stones and with high risk of stone recurrence, we have tried to determine simple patient data increasing stone recurrence to limit sophisticated analyses to certain cases at least in particularly deprivation districts. MATERIALS AND METHODS: For the study 173 with first-time or recurrent urinary stone were taken. After stone treatment, various empirical metaphylaxis methods were counselled to the patients. The parameters evaluated were (a) age at onset of the disease, (b) gender, (c) urinary pH and (d) specific gravity, (e) serum calcium and (f) uric acid, (g) stone burden, (h) side, and (i) location, (j) treatment modality and (k) recurrence history. New stone formation or growing of the existing stone was considered as stone recurrence. In statistics, independent samples t, chi-square test, Kaplan-Meier, Log rank and Cox regression tests were used. RESULTS: The mean age was 35 years. The male to female ratio was 88/85. Recurrence occurred in 49 (28%) cases at a mean of 30 months. Stone burden was significantly larger in patients with recurrent stone. In subjects treated with open surgery and with previous recurrence history, stone recurrence rate was significantly higher. In survival analyses, higher serum calcium level, larger stone burden, renal stones and previous recurrence influenced stone prognosis poorly. However in multivariate analysis, none of them was the most significant independent factor. CONCLUSIONS: According to our study, detailed urometabolic analyses may be somewhat reserved for the patients with ordinary factors increasing risk of stone recurrence including relatively high serum calcium level, large stone burden, upper urinary stone, history of recurrence and open surgery. As a result, it has been thought that the stone risk evaluation guiding detailed laboratory examination may be partially performed with first-line clinical data under limited conditions.

Adolescent↗

The arrhythmogenicity of theophylline. A multivariate analysis of clinical determinants.

OBJECTIVE: to determine the relation of serum theophylline concentrations (STC) to the occurrence of cardiac arrhythmias in a population of hospitalized patients. STUDY DESIGN: A cross-sectional study of 100 patients receiving theophylline who had electrocardiograms at the time STC had been obtained. Categorization was based on STC without knowledge of clinical status: group 1 (25) had STC less than 2.5 mg/L; group 2 (25), STC greater than or equal to 2.5 less than 10 (6.2 +/- 0.4) mg/L; group 3 (25), STC greater than or equal to 10 less than or equal to 20 (15.8 +/- 0.4) mg/L; and group 4 (25), STC greater than 20 (27.8 +/- 1.1) mg/L. SETTING: A university-affiliated teaching hospital. RESULTS: Two-thirds of the patients were receiving theophylline in an oral form, with a similar distribution found in all groups. Groups were not different with respect to age, clinical diagnoses, electrocardiographic patterns, arterial pH or gases, serum calcium, or treatment with beta-agonists. Although fewer patients in group 1 were receiving steroids than those in the other groups, and serum potassium was lower in group 3 than in group 1 (4.0 +/- 0.6 vs 4.5 +/- 0.5 mEq/L, p less than 0.05), on multivariate analysis, serum potassium was not an independent predictor of arrhythmia, and treatment with steroids or digoxin was, at most, only weakly associated with the presence of arrhythmia. Heart rate was directly related to STC (r = 0.64, p less than 0.01), and STC was the strongest independent predictor of arrhythmia in this population. Although only 20 percent of patients in group 1 or 2 had arrhythmias, 48 percent of group 3 (p less than 0.05) and 56 percent of group 4 (p less than 0.05) had this finding. Moreover, the odds ratio of group 3 having an arrhythmia compared with group 1 was 3.7, 1.5 to 11.7, p less than 0.01. Multifocal atrial tachycardia was found in 8 percent of the patients in group 3 and 16 percent in group 4 but in none of the patients in groups 1 or 2. Two patients with multifocal atrial tachycardia died suddenly within 24 hours of having their STC measurement; none had concomitant ventricular ectopy. CONCLUSION: Theophylline causes tachycardia and serious arrhythmias even at STC considered to be therapeutic. Multifocal atrial tachycardia, an arrhythmia associated with use of this drug, may herald sudden cardiac death.

Aged↗

Multivariate analysis of the prognostic value of CEA and CA 19-9 serum levels in colorectal cancer.

UNLABELLED: Carcinoembrionic Antigen (CEA) and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA 19-9) are the most commonly used tumor-associated antigens in the management of patients with colorectal cancer. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of preoperative serum levels of CEA and/or CA 19-9 and the classical prognostic factors (age, sex, tumor infiltration and staging) in 495 patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The retrospective study was performed on frozen sera (stored at -70 degrees C) of patients with histologically proven colorectal cancer. Survival function estimates were calculated (Kaplan-Meier). The patients were separated into two groups according to the preoperative marker levels. Cut-off levels calculated at a specificity of 100% versus healthy individuals were used: < 4 ng/mL versus > or = 4 ng/mL for CEA and < 60 U/mL versus > or = 60 U/mL for CA 19-9. Survival curve differences were assessed using the log-rank-test. Mulivariate Cox's proportional hazard regression analysis was performed to examine the association between tumor marker levels and survival time. Classical prognostic factors such as age, sex, tumor infiltration, tumor stage (Dukes' classification) were included as covariants. The mantel-Haenszel method was used to assess the survival rate of patients with colorectal carcinoma and high versus low levels of tumor-associated antigens according to tumor stages. RESULTS: The Dukes' stages (log-rank chi-square = 231.9; p < 0.0001) represent the best prognostic factor besides the preoperative values of CA 19-9 (log-rank chi-square = 162.5). CEA shows a log-rank chi-square of 71.4. Thus, CEA and CA 19-9 can be used to discriminate two groups of patients with significantly different survival times (p < 0.0001). The importance of different parameters in providing additional prognostic information was evaluated by multivariate analysis. Only items of statistically significant prognostic relevance (univariate analysis) were used for this analysis. Estimated relative risks of death adjusted for tumor stage were 5.5 considering Dukes' stage A versus Dukes' stage B/C and Dukes' stage B/C versus Dukes' stage D, respectively, and an increasing relative risk of 27.5 for Dukes' stage A versus Dukes' stage D (p < 0.001). The relative risk for preoperative CA 19-9 serum concentrations (> or = 60 U/mL versus < 60 U/mL) was 2.3 (p < 0.001) and for preoperative CEA concentrations (> or = 4 ng/mL versus < 4 ng/mL) 1.4 (p < 0.07). For CEA the 2-year survival rates in the group of patients with preoperative serum concentrations > 4 ng/mL versus < 4 ng/mL and Dukes' stage D were 16% versus 38%, in Dukes' stage B/C 73% versus 91% and in Dukes' stage A 100% versus 98%. For CA 19-9 the 2-year survival rates in the group of patients with preoperative serum concentrations > or = 60 U/mL versus < 60 U/mL and Dukes' stage D were 10% versus 39%, whilst in Dukes' stage B/C 58% versus 87%. In the group of patients with Dukes' stage A with serum levels > or = 60 U/mL a 2-years survival rate of 100% was found. CONCLUSION: The postoperative Dukes' classification represents the best prognostic information besides the preoperative values of CA 19-9. The predictive information provided by preoperative CA 19-9 serum levels is independent from that obtained by the other factors investigated. Only Dukes' classification and CA 19-9 levels showed statistical significance (p < 0.001).

Biomarkers, Tumor↗

Advanced carcinoma of the larynx: results of surgery and radiotherapy without induction chemotherapy (1980-1985): a multivariate analysis.

PURPOSE: Induction chemotherapy has been proposed in the case of advanced laryngeal cancer in order to preserve laryngeal function in those patients who are complete responders. To clarify the treatment policies, a retrospective multicentric analysis of 116 patients with advanced carcinoma of the larynx treated by radical surgery and postoperative radiotherapy was carried out in order to evaluate prognostic factors for local control and survival. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Between 1980 and 1985, 116 patients with Stage III squamous cell carcinoma of the larynx underwent radical surgery and postoperative radiotherapy with a curative intent. Treatments were very homogenous, and doses delivered were in the range of 50-65 Gy according to nodal involvement and surgical margins status. RESULTS: The local recurrence rate and the local disease-free survival rate at 5 years were 22.5% and 76.3%, respectively. Actuarial survival at 5 years was 68.3% with 44 patients still alive with no evidence of disease (NED) with more than 5 years follow-up. For both overall survival and relapse-free survival, cervical node involvement with capsular rupture was found to be the only significant adverse pronostic factor in univariate and multivariate analysis. No other parameter was predictive either for local recurrence or for survival. CONCLUSIONS: Local prognosis and survival depend largely on nodal involvement and capsular rupture while increasing doses of radiation strategy is likely to reduce the risk of local and nodal recurrence. Preservation of functional larynx is certainly an important goal to achieve when treating advanced carcinoma of the larynx, provided that local failure rate and survival be similar. In the unique randomized study previously published in the literature comparing radical surgery and postoperative radiotherapy to induction chemotherapy and radiotherapy, the local-regional failure rate was drastically increased in the chemotherapy arm. Other results from well-designed controlled studies are awaited before recommending systematic induction chemotherapy and larynx preservation in complete responders. On the other hand, testing synchronous or alternated chemotherapy vs. induction chemotherapy may address the pending questions about the optimal treatment of advanced laryngeal carcinoma.

Adult↗

[Multivariate analysis of the parameters related to prognosis of astrocytoma].

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the clinical and pathological characteristics of astrocytoma and the factors related to pathologic gradings as well as prognosis in astrocytoma. METHODS: 120 cases of the astrocytoma with complete clinical data were selected as the study group, of which 94 cases had follow-up data. 20 cases of normal brain tissue and demyelinating plaques with astrocyte hyperplasia were used as the control group. The expression of Ki-67, VEGF, collagen IV and TRT by immunohistochemical staining and detection of TRTmRNA and telomerase RNA by in situ hybridization were studied. RESULTS: (1) Both astrocytoma and demyelinating lesions showed various positivity for Ki-67. The difference between different gradings of the astrocytoma and non-neoplastic lesions were significant(P < 0.01). Taking 8.5% of Ki-67 expression as threshold, there was significant difference between two survival curves indicating favorable and unfavorable prognosis in the tumor group respectively (P < 0.01). (2) Microvascular changes, such as the density of blood vessels, did not demonstrate any difference between grade I, II astrocytoma and normal tissue, but was significantly increased in grade III and IV astrocytoma and even more in the necrotic area (P < 0.01). The expression of VEGF correlated closely to the density of the blood vessel (P < 0.01). (3) The expression of TRT protein was negative in normal astrocytes but positive in proliferative disease and astrocytoma. The intensity of the positivity was enhanced by the grading of the tumor and correlated with the prognosis (P < 0.01). The expression of hTR, TRTmRNA was less than that of TRT but was well correlated to TRT expression. CONCLUSIONS: Use of the cox-regression model in multivariate analysis shows that there are six parameters closely related to the prognosis of astrocytoma, of which the pathological grade being the most critical factor. Ratio of Ki-67 positivity, age of patient, duration of symptoms are also important factors, while microcystic changes in the tumor and expression of VEGF are independent favorable factors for astrocytoma.

Adult↗

The accuracy of staging: an important prognostic determinator in stage I ovarian carcinoma. A multivariate analysis.

BACKGROUND: Several prognostic factors for stage I ovarian carcinoma have been analyzed. Some of them are biological and clinical in nature, but others such as the thoroughness of the staging procedure, the extent of the surgery and the philosophy of treatment, are defined by the human element. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We reviewed the records of 351 patients with Stage I ovarian cancer who had been treated from 1981 to 1991. For all patients the following information was available: age, size of the tumor, FIGO sub-stage, tumor grade, histologic type, rupture of the tumor, cytology, extent of the staging and of the surgery (hysterectomy and bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy vs. fertility-conserving surgery) and use of adjuvant treatments. The thoroughness of the staging was defined as: optimal staging: total abdominal hysterectomy and bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy or fertility-conserving surgery, peritoneal cytology or washing, omentectomy, multiple peritoneal biopsies, sampling of the retroperitoneal nodes or formal lymphadenectomy, peritoneal staging: all the criteria described above were met with the exception of retroperitoneal sampling, incomplete staging: lack of any of the previously-cited criteria. RESULTS: An optimal staging was performed in 100 patients, a peritoneal staging in 107 and an incomplete staging in 144. Radical surgery was performed in 295 women and fertility-conserving surgery in 56. With a median follow-up of 108 months (range 14-184) 64 patients had recurrence of the tumor. Fifty-three died of the disease, two are currently alive with disease and nine were salvaged by surgery and/or chemotherapy. In a multivariate analysis only the tumor grade and the type of staging were significant independent prognostic factors for both disease-free and overall survival. CONCLUSIONS: As described by other authors, we confirm that tumor grade is the single most important biological prognostic factor in early ovarian carcinoma. The thoroughness of the staging impacts significantly on survival, particularly in poorly differentiated carcinomas. Fertility-sparing surgery is not associated with a worse outcome than standard radical surgery.

Adolescent↗

Adverse events in platelet apheresis donors: A multivariate analysis in a hospital-based program.

OBJECTIVES: This study was designed to review the incidence of adverse events during nearly 20,000 apheresis procedures over a 4-year period in a hospital-based program. METHODS: Data were obtained from a review of: (1) apheresis adverse event forms (2) hospital or emergency room medical records (3) the databank for donor and procedure-related variables. Adverse events during or after the apheresis procedures were analyzed according to the following categories: (1) complications related to citrate toxicity; (2) hypotensive or vasovagal episodes; (3) complications or symptoms consistent with coronary ischemia; (4) complications related to percutaneous needle insertion, and (5) miscellaneous procedure-related events or nonspecific symptoms. Serious adverse events were categorized as persistent or severe hemodynamic changes as well as other events that required further medical evaluation. RESULTS: Of 19,736 apheresis procedures, 159 (0.81%) were associated with adverse events. In 2,376 first-time donations, 26 (1.09%) developed adverse events compared to 133 (0.77%) of 17,360 repeat procedures (p = 0.10). Seventy (0.35%) of 159 donation-related adverse events involved hemodynamic or citrate-related complications and 73 (0.37%) involved venipuncture-related complications, of which 2 required subsequent neurologic consultation. The remaining 23 (0. 12%) adverse events involved procedure-related, nonspecific complications. Forty-seven (0.24%) of the 19,736 apheresis procedures were associated with serious adverse events (SAEs). Seven of these serious adverse events required admission to an emergency department, and 2 required hospitalization for further evaluation. Multivariate analysis revealed that apheresis machine model, donor gender and weight, the concomitant harvesting of plasma, the frequency of donation, and citrate-related symptoms (e.g. paresthesias) were independently associated with severe hypotensive reactions. CONCLUSIONS: Apheresis procedures have a 150-fold higher incidence of SAEs requiring hospitalization compared to whole blood donation. Identification of donors at risk for complications can facilitate modification of the apheresis procedure in order to reduce the likelihood of adverse events. Although our study did not demonstrate a cause-effect relationship between platelet donation and the development of acute coronary syndromes, underlying cardiovascular disease was detected in 2 donors during or after the apheresis who were otherwise asymptomatic.

Adult↗

A multivariate analysis of the accumulation and fractionation of major and trace elements in agricultural soils in Hidalgo State, Mexico irrigated with raw wastewater.

We evaluated the accumulation and distribution of major and trace elements in agricultural soils of District 03 (DR03) in the State of Hidalgo, Mexico, irrigated with raw wastewaters for an average of 20 years. Samples of topsoils (0-30 cm depth) were extracted using a modified Tessier method. Total concentrations of the species tested were in the ranges of 675-1176 mg K kg(-1), 277.9-1001 mg Na kg(-1), 6,708-81,854 mg Ca kg(-1), 23,800-106,974 mg Mg kg(-1), 9.2-123.8 mg B kg(-1), 0.6-1.9 mg Cd kg(-1), 11.6-27.4 mg Cr kg(-1), 3.9-47.0 mg Pb kg(-1). Concentrations of As and Hg were very low. Concentrations of total Cd, Cr and Pb were generally below the maximum permissible levels set by the regulations of the European Union except for cadmium, which was in the middle of the maximum European range allowed for two soils. Regarding lead, one soil (S5) could reach the maximum permissible level of the EU in 6 more years of continued irrigation. On the other hand, contents of Pb in the most mobile fractions ("e" in this work) were significant (range: 3-28%). This distribution translated into concentrations of soluble plus exchangeable lead of approximately 2 mg Pb kg(-1) in three of six soils, significantly higher than the Swiss tolerance limit of 1.0 mg Pb kg(-1) for mobile fractions of lead in soils. Multivariate analysis of the data (Pearson correlation and principal component analysis) quantitatively confirmed that: (i) there is a strong covariance between boron contents and several variables representing the salinity of soils (electrolytic conductivity, a variety of alkaline and alkaline-earth total and fraction concentrations). It appears that there is a problem with high boron content in soils, although the salinity is high only for one of the soils (S3); (ii) a significant correlation among irrigation time, lead content (total, fraction easily exchangeable and bound to organic matter and sulfides) and organic carbon in soils was found; (iii) another association among irrigation time, total contents of cadmium, chromium and boron, and organic carbon was observed.

Agriculture↗

FTIR spectroscopy and multivariate analysis can distinguish the geographic origin of extra virgin olive oils.

This work investigates whether Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), in combination with multivariate analysis, can distinguish extra virgin olive oils from different producing countries. Duplicate spectra were collected from 60 oils from four European countries. Two approaches to data analysis were used as follows: first, the "whole spectrum" method of partial least squares (PLS) followed by distance-based linear discriminant analysis (LDA) applied to the PLS scores, and second, a genetic algorithm (GA) for variate selection from the raw data, followed by LDA applied to the selected subset. The PLS-LDA approach produced a cross-validation success rate of 96%, whereas the GA-LDA approach achieved a 100% cross-validation success rate, from subsets comprising only eight variates. Neither the selected variate nor the whole spectrum approach was able to offer insight into the origin of the discrimination in biochemical terms. However, FTIR analysis is rapid, and this work shows that it has the required discriminatory power to potentially offer a "black box" method of screening oils to verify their country of origin.

Analysis of Variance↗

Non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Multivariate analysis of prognostic factors including fraction of S-phase cells.

In a material of 80 patients with non-Hodgkin lymphoma a multivariate analysis was carried out taking the following variables into account: Age, clinical stage, B-symptoms, morphologic diagnosis and fraction of S-phase cells in the tumour determined by flow cytometry. Clinical stage, proportion of cells in the S-phase, and age of the patient were significant independent prognostic factors. Morphologic malignancy grade and B-symptoms were not significant parameters in this analysis. It was concluded that DNA analysis with determination of the fraction of S-phase cells is a valuable complement to morphology in the evaluation of patients with non-Hodgkin lymphoma. In combination with the clinical stage it gives very good discrimination into groups with different prognoses.

Adult↗

Multivariate analysis: the need for data, and other problems.

Multivariate analyses are an aid to, not a substitute for critical thinking in the area of data analysis. Meaningful results can only be produced by these methods if careful consideration is given to questions of sample size, variable type, variable distribution etc., and accusations of subjectivity in interpretation can only be overcome by replication. The computer revolution has produced many problems for statisticans, not least of which is the ease with which experiments may access packages of programs for multivariate analysis, and so bypass a "difficult" (by which is meant one who will not do simply as he is told) statistician. Of course there are many abusers of univariate statistical methods. Here, however, the abuses are not likely to lead to such seriously misleading results as in the multivariate case. Perhaps a major cause of the continuing misuse of statistical methods is the insistence of many journal editors in psychology and related areas, on articles being laced with multivariate analyses, and on encouraging the pedantic use of signifance levels, i.e. the inevitable p less than minus, as if such inclusions lent an air of respectability to their journal which it might not otherwise have had. Research workers in these fields would be better encouraged to devote more time to an initial screening of their data using simple graphical techniques, to ensure that their data are at least approximately suitable for more complicated multivariate analyses.

Psychiatry↗

Stage T1-2 prostate cancer: a multivariate analysis of factors affecting biochemical and clinical failures after radical prostatectomy.

PURPOSE: Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) is extensively used in case selection and outcome evaluation after treatment of clinically localized prostate cancer. Careful case selection can have a profound impact on pathologic findings and ultimate outcome. In addition, salvage treatment is frequently initiated at the time of biochemical relapse rather than clinical recurrence. Consequently, patterns of failure can be significantly altered compared to previous times when PSA was not available. To better understand the impact of PSA on pathologic findings, outcome, and salvage treatment, we reviewed our experience in the PSA era with clinical Stage T1-2 prostate cancer treated with radical prostatectomy. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Between 1987 and 1993, 423 cases could be identified with clinical Stage T1-2 prostate cancer treated with radical prostatectomy. The distribution of cases by pretreatment PSA levels was as follows: < or = 4 ng/ml (18%), 4-10 ng/ml (42%), 10-20 ng/ml (21%), > 20 ng/ml (14%), and unknown (5%). The median pretreatment PSA level for the entire group was 8.0 ng/ml. Sixteen patients received adjuvant or neoadjuvant androgen suppression and 13 received postoperative radiotherapy. Only 31 patients (7%) had pathologically positive pelvic lymph nodes. The overall margin involvement rate was 46%. Fifty-three percent of patients had surgical Gleason scores > or = 7, and 65% had extracapsular extension. The median follow-up time was 41 months. RESULTS: The projected overall survival at 7 years after surgery was 90%. The 5-year clinical relapse-free survival rate was 84%. At 5 years, the local control and distant failure rates were 92% and 91%, respectively. Biochemical relapse was defined as a detectable or rising PSA level after prostatectomy. The 5-year biochemical relapse-free survival (bRFS) rate was 59%. The 5-year RFS was 88% in patients with preoperative PSA levels < or = 4, 62% for 4-10, 48% for 10-20, and 31% for > 20. Combining the two independent preoperative variables, iPSA and biopsy GS (bGS), two risks groups were defined: low risk [initial PSA (iPSA) levels < or = 10.0 and bGS < or = 6] and high risk (iPSA levels > 10.0 ng/ml or bGS > or = 7). The 5-year bRFS rate for the low-risk cases was 81% vs. 40% for high-risk cases (p < 0.001). On multivariate analysis, three factors independently predicted biochemical relapse: iPSA levels (p = 0.005), Gleason score from the surgical specimen (sGS) (p = 0.002), and positive surgical margins (p < or = 0.001). The 5-year bRFS rates for margin positive vs. margin negative patients were 37% vs. 78%, respectively. The 5-year bRFS rates for GS > or = 7 vs. GS > or = 6 were 42% vs. 80%, respectively. All clinical relapses were accompanied by a rise in PSA. In patients who manifested biochemical failure followed by a clinical failure, the median interval between the PSA rise and clinical failure was 19 months (range 7-71). Margin involvement was the only independent predictor of local failure (p = 0.019). The 5-year local failure-free survival for negative margin cases was 96% vs. 87% for positive margin cases (p = 0.012). Lymph node (LN) involvement and high-risk group were the two independent predictors of distant failure. The 5-year distant failure-free survival for negative LN cases was 94% vs. 67% for positive LN cases (p < 0.001). The 5-year distant failure-free survival for low-risk cases was 97% vs. 85% for high-risk cases (p = 0.005). For the 124 patients failing biochemically, 85 were observed and 39 were treated either with radiation or androgen deprivation. With a median follow-up of 32 months, the clinical disease relapse-free survival was 79% for the treated patients vs. only 32% for the patients observed (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Pretreatment PSA is the most potent clinical factor independently predicting biochemical relapse, thereby allowing markedly better case selection. Achieving negative margins, even in relatively advanced disease, provides excellent lon

Adult↗

Risk factors of pneumothorax and bleeding: multivariate analysis of 660 CT-guided coaxial cutting needle lung biopsies.

BACKGROUND: The results of studies identifying the risk factors for pneumothorax and bleeding in CT-guided coaxial lung needle biopsies were inconsistent and some were even contradictory. All reported series were small with patient populations averaging about 200. STUDY OBJECTIVES: To determine the risk factors for pneumothorax and bleeding after CT-guided coaxial cutting needle biopsy of lung lesions. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis. METHODS: We reviewed 660 biopsy procedures. The risk factors for pneumothorax and bleeding were determined by multivariate analysis of variables related to patient demographics, lung lesions, biopsy procedures, and the individual radiologist. RESULTS: The main complications were pneumothorax (23%; 155 of 660 procedures), chest tube insertion (1%; 9 of 660 procedures), and hemoptysis (4%; 26 of 660 procedures), with no patient mortality. The highest pneumothorax rate correlated with a lesion size of </= 2 cm, a lesion depth of 0.1 to 2 cm, and less experienced radiologists. The highest bleeding risk correlated with a lesion size </= 2 cm, a lesion depth of >/= 2.1 cm, and the absence of pleural effusion. CONCLUSIONS: The risk factors for highest pneumothorax rate are lesion size </= 2 cm, a subpleural lesion depth of 0.1 to 2.0 cm, and a less experienced radiologist. The risk factors for highest bleeding rate are lesion size </= 2 cm, lesion depth >/= 2.1 cm, and lung lesions not associated with a pleural effusion.

Aged↗