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PubMed1992

The population dynamics of nematode infections of ruminants: the effect of seasonality in the free-living stages.

A previously published differential equation model for the dynamics of nematode infections of ruminants is modified to allow for time-dependent development and loss rates in the free-living stages. This converts the nonlinear autonomous system to one with periodic coefficients. Fourier transform methods are used to analyse the response of the modified system to these forced oscillations. For biologically reasonable parameter values, the annual pattern of parasitism is determined for the nonautonomous system, and compared with that for the autonomous system with periodic perturbations, and a system incorporating both effects. It is found that, whereas periodic perturbations due to management intervention determine the qualitative annual patterns of larval abundance and host infection, the seasonal dynamics of the larval stages change the magnitude of the adult worm burden.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

Assessing spatial coupling in complex population dynamics using mutual prediction and continuity statistics.

A number of important questions in ecology involve the possibility of interactions or "coupling" among potential components of ecological systems. The basic question of whether two components are coupled (exhibit dynamical interdependence) is relevant to investigations of movement of animals over space, population regulation, food webs and trophic interactions, and is also useful in the design of monitoring programs. For example, in spatially extended systems, coupling among populations in different locations implies the existence of redundant information in the system and the possibility of exploiting this redundancy in the development of spatial sampling designs. One approach to the identification of coupling involves study of the purported mechanisms linking system components. Another approach is based on time series of two potential components of the same system and, in previous ecological work, has relied on linear cross-correlation analysis. Here we present two different attractor-based approaches, continuity and mutual prediction, for determining the degree to which two population time series (e.g., at different spatial locations) are coupled. Both approaches are demonstrated on a one-dimensional predator-prey model system exhibiting complex dynamics. Of particular interest is the spatial asymmetry introduced into the model as linearly declining resource for the prey over the domain of the spatial coordinate. Results from these approaches are then compared to the more standard cross-correlation analysis. In contrast to cross-correlation, both continuity and mutual prediction are clearly able to discern the asymmetry in the flow of information through this system.

Models, Theoretical↗
PubMed2004

Plasmodium falciparum clonal population dynamics during malaria treatment.

We have developed a new fragment-analysis method to enumerate the clones and to quantify their proportions within Plasmodium falciparum isolates. We prospectively enrolled 20 adult patients with uncomplicated malaria who were returning to France from various sub-Saharan countries, from January 2000 through July 2001. The analysis of clonal populations was performed on blood samples obtained at 10 times: 1 before treatment with oral quinine and 9 during the first 96 h of the treatment. The resistance genotypes pfcrt and dhfr were determined for chloroquine and antifolinics. Multiple P. falciparum genotypes were detected in 19 (95%) of 20 patients: 2, 3, 4, and 5 genotypes were found in 4, 9, 4 and 2 patients, respectively. Disappearance and reappearance of some clones within a few hours was observed. Individual clones represented 0.4%-99.4% of total parasitemia. Surprisingly, in 10 of 15 subjects tested, resistance genotypes varied according to the time of blood collection. These findings may have important implications with regard to the interpretations of resistance studies.

Animals↗
PubMed2003

Single-leaf resolution of the temporal population dynamics of Aureobasidium pullulans on apple leaves.

The abundance of phylloplane microorganisms typically varies over several orders of magnitude among leaves sampled concurrently. Because the methods traditionally used to sample leaves are destructive, it has remained unclear whether this high variability is due to fixed differences in habitat quality among leaves or to asynchronous temporal variation in the microbial population density on individual leaves. We developed a novel semidestructive assay to repeatedly sample the same apple leaves from orchard trees over time by removing progressively more proximal approximately 1-cm-wide transverse segments. Aureobasidium pullulans densities were determined by standard leaf homogenization and plating procedures and were expressed as CFU per square centimeter of segment. The A. pullulans population densities among leaves were lognormally distributed. The variability in A. pullulans population densities among subsections of a given leaf was one-third to one-ninth the variability among whole leaves harvested concurrently. Sequential harvesting of leaf segments did not result in detectable changes in A. pullulans density on residual leaf surfaces. These findings implied that we could infer whole-leaf A. pullulans densities over time by using partial leaves. When this successive sampling regimen was applied over the course of multiple 7- to 8-day experiments, the among-leaf effects were virtually always the predominant source of variance in A. pullulans density estimates. Changes in A. pullulans density tended to be synchronous among leaves, such that the rank order of leaves arrayed with respect to A. pullulans density was largely maintained through time. Occasional periods of asynchrony were observed, but idiosyncratic changes in A. pullulans density did not contribute appreciably to variation in the distribution of populations among leaves. This suggests that persistent differences in habitat (leaf) quality are primarily responsible for the variation in A. pullulans density among leaves in nature.

Malus↗
PubMed2003

Activity and population dynamics of heterotrophic and ammonia-oxidizing microorganisms in soil surrounding sludge bands spiked with linear alkylbenzene sulfonate: a field study.

Recent research has documented soil microorganisms to be rather sensitive to linear alkylbenzene sulfonates (LAS), which may enter the soil environment in considerable quantities following sewage sludge disposal. We here report field effects of LAS on selected microbial populations present in a sandy soil surrounding well-defined sludge bands spiked with high but realistic LAS levels (7.1 or 31.3 g/kg). Surprisingly, LAS had no effect on heterotrophic respiration in the sludge compartment per se but stimulated activity and metabolic quotient (microbial activity per unit of biomass) in the surrounding soil. By contrast, autotrophic ammonia oxidation was initially inhibited in the LAS-spiked sludge. This led to dramatic transient increases of NH4+ availability in the sludge and surrounding soil, subsequently stimulating soil ammonia oxidizers. As judged from a Nitrosomonas europaea bioluminescence toxicity assay, however, LAS or other sludge components never accumulated to toxic levels in the soil compartments and the LAS tolerance of the indigenous microbes further remained unchanged following LAS exposure. LAS effects on the investigated microbial populations largely occurred during the first two months and were confined to soil closer than 30 mm from LAS-spiked sludge. Our results strongly suggest that disposal of LAS-contaminated sludge does not pose a major risk to the function of the soil microbial community under field conditions.

Alkanesulfonic Acids↗
PubMed2004

Comparative population dynamics of HIV-1 subtypes B and C: subtype-specific differences in patterns of epidemic growth.

The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) pandemic continues to grow at an alarming rate, with a further 5 million new infections in 2003. Some 3.5 million of these were in sub-Saharan Africa, where approximately 70% of the world's HIV-positive population resides. In contrast, the spread of HIV in high-income countries has slowed since its discovery in the 1980s, and in regions such as Western Europe prevalence has decreased. Here, we employ coalescent methods to compare the epidemic growth rates of two subtypes of HIV-1 with differing epidemiological profiles: subtype C, which is dominant in sub-Saharan Africa and associated with heterosexual transmission, and subtype B, the main cause of AIDS in Western Europe and North America, and which was primarily transmitted through homosexual sex and injecting drug use. We show that although both subtypes emerged at approximately the same time ( approximately 1960), they have widely differing patterns of exponential population growth. At its current growth rate the epidemic of subtype C in sub-Saharan Africa is doubling every 2.4 years, which is approximately half the rate observed during the early stages of the subtype B epidemic in Western Europe and North America. However, the subtype C growth rate is still 5-10 times greater than that estimated for the blood-borne hepatitis C virus, supporting the hypothesis that sexual transmission has been primarily responsible for the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed2006

Simulating the impact of four control strategies on the population dynamics of Neospora caninum infection in Swiss dairy cattle.

A dynamic deterministic simulation model was developed to assess the impact of different putative control strategies on the seroprevalence of Neospora caninum in female Swiss dairy cattle. The model structure comprised compartments of "susceptible" and "infected" animals (SI-model) and the cattle population was divided into 12 age classes. A reference model (Model 1) was developed to simulate the current (status quo) situation (present seroprevalence in Switzerland 12%), taking into account available demographic and seroprevalence data of Switzerland. Model 1 was modified to represent four putative control strategies: testing and culling of seropositive animals (Model 2), discontinued breeding with offspring from seropositive cows (Model 3), chemotherapeutic treatment of calves from seropositive cows (Model 4), and vaccination of susceptible and infected animals (Model 5). Models 2-4 considered different sub-scenarios with regard to the frequency of diagnostic testing. Multivariable Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis was used to assess the impact of uncertainty in input parameters. A policy of annual testing and culling of all seropositive cattle in the population reduced the seroprevalence effectively and rapidly from 12% to <1% in the first year of simulation. The control strategies with discontinued breeding with offspring from all seropositive cows, chemotherapy of calves and vaccination of all cattle reduced the prevalence more slowly than culling but were still very effective (reduction of prevalence below 2% within 11, 23 and 3 years of simulation, respectively). However, sensitivity analyses revealed that the effectiveness of these strategies depended strongly on the quality of the input parameters used, such as the horizontal and vertical transmission factors, the sensitivity of the diagnostic test and the efficacy of medication and vaccination. Finally, all models confirmed that it was not possible to completely eradicate N. caninum as long as the horizontal transmission process was not interrupted.

Age Factors↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Population dynamics of the deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) and Sin Nombre virus, California Channel Islands.

Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome, first documented in 1993, is caused by Sin Nombre virus (SNV), which is carried by the Peromyscus species. In 1994, high SNV antibody prevalence was identified in deer mice from two California Channel Islands. We sampled two locations on three islands to estimate mouse population density and SNV prevalence. Population flux and SNV prevalence appear to vary independently.

Animals↗
PubMed1993

Population dynamics and schistosomal infection of Biomphalaria alexandrina in four irrigation canals in Egypt.

The natural growth, reproductivity, mortality and schistosomal infection of Biomphalaria alexandrina, the snail vector of Schistosoma mansoni in Egypt, were studied for one year in four irrigation canals, namely El-Khassa and Radwan (Giza Governorate) and Sendebis and Sanafeer (Qalyoubiya Governorate). Radwan canal contains a considerably dense Biomphalaria population and three generations of snails (parents generation and autumn and spring generations) were recognized. Two phases of growth were distinguished in both autumn and spring generations, a faster phase followed by a slower one. The faster phase extends from January to May and from March to August in the autumn and spring generations, respectively. The daily mortality rate of snails was highest in the hot season (June--September) and lowest in the cold months (December--April). Continuous reproductivity of Biomphalaria snails was observed allover the year with highest values of reproduction index from November to March. Biomphalaria snails collected from El Khassa and Radwan canals were free of S. mansoni infection, while snails of Sanafeer canal carried patent infection in September and October. Prepatent infection was also found in Sanafeer canal in July and September and in Sendebis canal in September.

Animals↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Population dynamics and biting rhythm of the anthropophilic sandfly Lutzomyia cruciata (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Southeast, Mexico.

Sandflies attracted by human bait were caught in an endemic focus of localized cutaneous leishmaniasis in the state of Campeche, Mexico. Catches were carried out monthly from February 1994 to January 1995 between 18:00 and 22:00 h. Lutzomyia cruciata was the only species caught. The highest population peak of Lu. cruciata was found in March with lesser peaks in February, December 1994, and January 1995. Maximum biting rate of Lu. cruciata was found between 18:00 and 19:00 h. The host-seeking females of Lu. cruciata were directly related to levels of humidity between 88 and 100%. Low and high temperature had a negative effect upon Lu. cruciata activity. The possible role of Lu. cruciata as vector of leishmaniasis in the state of Campeche, Mexico is discussed.

Analysis of Variance↗
PubMed2001

The population dynamics of Fiorinia fioriniae (Targioni) (Homoptera: Diaspididae) and factors affecting its seasonal abundance in Egypt.

Fiorinia fioriniae (Targioni) was observed attacking Callistemon lanceolatus at the Experimental Farm of the Agricultural Research Station and Ruscus hypoglossum at Antoniades park in Alexandria Governorate; Egypt. The infestation rate on Ruscus hypoglossum, reached its maximum (98.0%) during autumn months, while the minimum rate 68.3%, was recorded during summer months. The fluctuating population density of F. fioriniae showed three distinct peaks. The first peak of 731.0 individuals/10 branches was recorded in October 1998, the second (734.1) in December 1998, and the third, (506.9) in April 1999. The highest number of counted insects (1991.1/plant) was observed during the autumn season, followed by winter (1467.9), spring (978.2) seasons and the least number (271.6/plant) was recorded in summer. On the contrary, the highest rate of infestation by the immature stages was recorded during the winter season, followed by spring, summer and autumn seasons (42.8, 29, 24.6 and 21.9%) of the total counted insects, respectively. The scale insect has been parasitized with the aphelinid species Encarsia citrina (Aphelinidae) with a maximum rate of 28.1 of the total count during August. The statistical analysis was performed for determining the relationship between the prevailing weather factors of daily mean temperature, daily relative humidity, wind speed and day-light in one hand and the population activity of F. fioriniae on R. hypoglossum plants on the other hand.

Animals↗
PubMed2003

Male-killing Wolbachia and mitochondrial DNA: selective sweeps, hybrid introgression and parasite population dynamics.

Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences are widely used as neutral genetic markers in insects. However, patterns of mtDNA variability are confounded by the spread of maternally transmitted parasites, which are genetically linked to the mitochondria. We have investigated these effects in the butterflies Acraea encedon (which is host to two strains of male-killing Wolbachia bacteria) and A. encedana (which is host to one strain). Within a population, the mitochondria are in linkage disequilibrium with the different male-killers. Furthermore, there has been a recent selective sweep of the mtDNA, which has led to the loss of mitochondrial variation within populations and erased any geographical structure. We also found that one of the male-killers, together with the associated mtDNA, has introgressed from A. encedana into A. encedon within the last 16,000 years. Interestingly, because butterflies are female heterogametic, this will presumably have also led to the introgression of genes on the W sex chromosome. Finally, in A. encedon the mitochondria in uninfected females are unaltered by the spread of the male-killer and have diverse, geographically structured mtDNA. This means we can reject the hypothesis that the male-killer is at a stable equilibrium maintained by imperfect transmission of the bacterium. Instead, some other form of balancing selection may be maintaining uninfected females in the population and preventing the species from going extinct due to a shortage of males.

Animals↗
PubMed2001

Combined effects of food concentration and the herbicide 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid on the population dynamics of Brachionus patulus (Rotifera).

Herbicides are important in crop protection and management. A number of them including 2,4-D (2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid), however, may reach water bodies and eventually affect the non-target organisms such as rotifers. In the present work, we studied the influence of 6 concentrations viz. 0 (control), 100, 200, 300, 400 and 500 mg l-1 of 2,4-D on the population growth of the rotifer Brachionus patulus under two algal (Chlorella) food levels (0.5 x 10(6) and 1.5 x 10(6) cells ml-1). Regardless of herbicide concentration, the population growth of B. patulus was dependent on the algal food levels, in that an increase in algal food level supported a better population growth. Similarly at any Chlorella density, the herbicide had a negative influence on the population growth of B. patulus. Herbicide level of 500 mg l-1 inhibited population growth of B. patulus beyond 5 days. Rotifers grown under low food density and high herbicide concentration (300 mg l-1 or above) were completely eliminated after day 15. The rate of population increase (r) (mean +/- standard error) in the controls varied from 0.46 +/- 0.002 and 0.55 +/- 0.004 under 0.5 x 10(6) and 1.5 x 10(6) cells ml-1 of Chlorella, respectively. The r values became negative under both, low and high food levels, at or beyond 300 mg l-1 of 2,4-D. The maximal population abundance (ind. ml-1) in controls varied from 294 +/- 9 to 503 +/- 21 under low and high food levels of Chlorella, respectively. The role of algae in mitigating adverse effects of high herbicide concentrations to rotifers has been discussed.

2,4-Dichlorophenoxyacetic Acid↗
PubMed1986

A population dynamics simulation model with application to health planning.

Despite the increasing emphasis on computers and quantitative methods in health services programs, health services administration students are denied access to many of the most powerful tools of systems analysis, including discrete event simulation, because they lack the necessary background in computer programming, simulation methodology, and stochastic processes. This article presents an approach to the modeling of the growth and decline of population groups and their attributes that can be used by students who do not have the extensive quantitative background required to develop the usual discrete event simulation models. The underlying theory, which is based on the behavior of the expectation process of vector Galton-Watson branching processes, can be explained quite easily. An example is presented that uses an age and sex specific model of population growth to investigate policy questions related to the feasibility of the construction of a long-term care facility for a defined population group. Planning decisions are based on the growth and decline of the numbers of individuals in the various age and sex groups. Extensions of the basic methodology are possible that would include projections of the variance-covariance matrix of the population sizes for each year of the projection process. In addition, the model can be extended to include projections of the impact of infectious and communicable diseases on a defined population group together with the effect of categorical disease screening and control programs. Given the basic data utilized in the model, the implementation of the calculations required by the model can be made on modern microcomputer hardware using any of the standard spreadsheet programs.

Health Planning↗