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PubMed2005

Causal attribution and hindsight bias for economic developments.

Hindsight bias for economic developments was studied, with particular focus on the moderating effects of attitudes and causal attributions. Participants (N = 263) rated the likelihood of several economic developments 6 months before and 6 months after the euro introduction in 2002. Hindsight bias occurred selectively for attitude-consistent economic developments: Euro supporters showed stronger hindsight bias for positive developments than for negative ones; euro opponents showed the opposite pattern. Causal attribution further moderated the hindsight bias: participants who perceived a strong connection between the euro introduction and specific economic developments showed higher attitude-consistent hindsight bias than participants who perceived those developments as unrelated to the euro. It is argued that hindsight bias serves to stabilize subjective representations of the economy.

Adult↗

PubMed2006

Personality, biographical characteristics, and job interview success: a longitudinal study of the mediating effects of interviewing self-efficacy and the moderating effects of internal locus of causality.

In this study, the authors developed and tested a model of performance in job interviews that examines the mediating role of interviewing self-efficacy (I-SE; job applicants' beliefs about their interviewing capabilities) in linking personality and biographical background with interview success and the moderating role of locus of causality attributions in influencing the relationship between interview success and subsequent I-SE. The authors tested their model (over 5 months' duration) with matched data from 229 graduating seniors, firms, and university records. Hierarchical regression analyses demonstrated I-SE mediated the effects of Extraversion, Conscientiousness, and leadership experience on interview success. Locus of causality attributions for interview outcomes moderated the relationship between interview success and subsequent I-SE. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

Achievement↗

PubMed2004

Do people agree about the causes of behavior? A social relations analysis of behavior ratings and causal attributions.

Two studies examined consistency and agreement in behavior ratings and causal attributions. In Study 1, participants (N = 280) engaged in a series of getting-acquainted conversations in one of 3 communication media (face-to-face, telephone, computer mediated); in Study 2, participants (N = 120) engaged in a competitive group task. In both studies, participants rated themselves and their interaction partners on a set of behaviors and then made attributions about the causes of those behaviors. The major findings were that (a) participants consistently favored some causal factors over others in explaining both their own and their partners' behavior, supporting the existence of generalized attributional styles; and (b) participants showed moderate self-partner and partner-partner agreement about behavior but virtually no agreement about the causes of behavior. Thus, in brief interactions people tend to see themselves and others through the lens of their stable patterns of perceiving and interpreting behavior.

Adult↗

PubMed1996

Concerns about drawing causal inferences from meta-analyses: an example in the study of gender differences in aggression.

Meta-analysis has increasingly been used as an explanatory research tool. The present investigation was designed to illustrate the potential limitations of meta-analysis for making causal inferences. Several meta-analytic investigations have led others to conclude that gender differences are getting smaller over time, however, there has been little concern regarding changes in research methodology over time. The present findings indicate that the gender differences in aggression appear to be remarkably stable when changes in study characteristics over time are controlled. The authors discuss the implications for the use of meta-analytic procedures to make causal inferences and the implications for understanding the causes of gender differences.

Aggression↗

PubMed2001

Testing hypotheses on specific environmental causal effects on behavior.

There have been strong critiques of the notion that environmental influences can have an important effect on psychological functioning. The substance of these criticisms is considered in order to infer the methodological challenges that have to be met. Concepts of cause and of the testing of causal effects are discussed with a particular focus on the need to consider sample selection and the value (and limitations) of longitudinal data. The designs that may be used to test hypotheses on specific environmental risk mechanisms for psychopathology are discussed in relation to a range of adoption strategies, twin designs, various types of "natural experiments," migration designs, the study of secular change, and intervention designs. In each case, consideration is given to the need for samples that "pull-apart" variables that ordinarily go together, specific hypotheses on possible causal processes, and the specification and testing of key assumptions. It is concluded that environmental risk hypotheses can be (and have been) put to the test but that it is usually necessary to use a combination of research strategies.

Adult↗

PubMed1992

Covariation in natural causal induction.

The covariation component of everyday causal inference has been depicted, in both cognitive and social psychology as well as in philosophy, as heterogeneous and prone to biases. The models and biases discussed in these domains are analyzed with respect to focal sets: contextually determined sets of events over which covariation is computed. Moreover, these models are compared to our probabilistic contrast model, which specifies causes as first and higher order contrasts computed over events in a focal set. Contrary to the previous depiction of covariation computation, the present assessment indicates that a single normative mechanism--the computation of probabilistic contrasts--underlies this essential component of natural causal induction both in everyday and in scientific situations.

Cognition↗

PubMed2003

Judgment dissociation theory: an analysis of differences in causal, counterfactual, and covariational reasoning.

Research suggests that causal judgment is influenced primarily by counterfactual or covariational reasoning. In contrast, the author of this article develops judgment dissociation theory (JDT), which predicts that these types of reasoning differ in function and can lead to divergent judgments. The actuality principle proposes that causal selections focus on antecedents that are sufficient to generate the actual outcome. The substitution principle proposes that ad hoc categorization plays a key role in counterfactual and covariational reasoning such that counterfactual selections focus on antecedents that would have been sufficient to prevent the outcome or something like it and covariational selections focus on antecedents that yield the largest increase in the probability of the outcome or something like it. The findings of 4 experiments support JDT but not the competing counterfactual and covariational accounts.

Adult↗

PubMed2006

Reasoning rats: forward blocking in Pavlovian animal conditioning is sensitive to constraints of causal inference.

Forward blocking is one of the best-documented phenomena in Pavlovian animal conditioning. According to contemporary associative learning theories, forward blocking arises directly from the hardwired basic learning rules that govern the acquisition or expression of associations. Contrary to this view, here the authors demonstrate that blocking in rats is flexible and sensitive to constraints of causal inference, such as violation of additivity and ceiling considerations. This suggests that complex cognitive processes akin to causal inferential reasoning are involved in a well-established Pavlovian animal conditioning phenomenon commonly attributed to the operation of basic associative processes.

Animals↗

PubMed2004

Associative history affects the associative change undergone by both presented and absent cues in human causal learning.

R. A. Rescorla (2000) noted that a number of influential theories of associative learning do not take the associative history of cues (i.e., the prior training that they have received) into account when calculating the associative change undergone by those cues. The authors tested this assumption in a human causal learning paradigm and found associative history to be an important determinant of the learning undergone by cues that are presented on a trial. Moreover, associative history was also found to influence the amount of retrospective revaluation undergone by absent cues. These findings conflict with models of causal learning in which the associative change undergone by an element of a cue compound is governed by a summed error term (e.g., R. A. Rescorla & A. R. Wagner, 1972).

Adult↗

PubMed2006

Do Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) apply causal reasoning to tool-use tasks?

Two experiments addressed contradictory claims about causal reasoning in elephants. In Experiment 1, 4 Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) were pretrained to remove a lid from the top of a bucket and retrieve a food reward. Subsequently, in the first 5 critical trials, when the lid was placed alongside the bucket and no longer obstructed access to the reward, each elephant continued to remove the lid before retrieving the reward. Experiment 2, which involved 11 additional elephants and variations of the original design, yielded similarly counterintuitive observations. Although the results are open to alternative interpretations, they appear more consistent with associative learning than with causal reasoning. Future applications of Fabrean methodologies (J. H. Fabre, 1915) to animal cognition are proposed.

Age Factors↗

PubMed2005

Competition between antecedent and between subsequent stimuli in causal judgments.

In the analysis of stimulus competition in causal judgment, 4 variables have been frequently confounded with respect to the conditions necessary for stimuli to compete: causal status of the competing stimuli (causes vs. effects), temporal order of the competing stimuli (antecedent vs. subsequent) relative to the noncompeting stimulus, directionality of training (predictive vs. diagnostic), and directionality of testing (predictive vs. diagnostic). In a factorial study using an overshadowing preparation, the authors isolated the role of each of these variables and their interactions. The results indicate that competition may be obtained in all conditions. Although some of the results are compatible with various theories of learning, the observation of stimulus competition in all conditions calls for a less restrictive reformulation of current learning theories that allows similar processing of antecedent and subsequent events, as well as of causes and effects.

Choice Behavior↗

PubMed2006

Making inferences about the location of hidden food: social dog, causal ape.

Domestic dogs (Canis familiaris) and great apes from the genus Pan were tested on a series of object choice tasks. In each task, the location of hidden food was indicated for subjects by some kind of communicative, behavioral, or physical cue. On the basis of differences in the ecologies of these 2 genera, as well as on previous research, the authors hypothesized that dogs should be especially skillful in using human communicative cues such as the pointing gesture, whereas apes should be especially skillful in using physical, causal cues such as food in a cup making noise when it is shaken. The overall pattern of performance by the 2 genera strongly supported this social-dog, causal-ape hypothesis. This result is discussed in terms of apes' adaptations for complex, extractive foraging and dogs' adaptations, during the domestication process, for cooperative communication with humans.

Animals↗

PubMed2004

Aging and the detection of contingency in causal learning.

Young and older participants' ability to detect negative, random, and positive response-outcome contingencies was evaluated using both contingency estimation and response rate adaptation tasks. Age differences in contingency estimation were consistently greater for negative than positive contingencies, and these differences, though still present, were smaller when response rate adaptation was used as the measure of contingency learning. Detecting causal contingency apparently becomes more difficult with age, especially when an oven numerical estimate of contingency must be provided and when the relationship between a causal event and an outcome is negative. A model that incorporates features of both associative and rule-based approaches to contingency learning (e.g., P. C. Price & J. F. Yates, 1995; D. R. Shanks, 1995) provides the best explanation for this pattern of findings.

Adult↗

PubMed1975

Causal attributions as a function of locus of control, initial confidence, and performance outcomes.

Causal attributions and body movements indicative of tension were recorded while subjects completed an anagrams task that was more extensive than most similar tasks used in attribution studies. Nine trials each containing 10 anagrams were presented such that most subjects succeeded on three sets of relatively simple anagrams, failed on three sets of difficult anagrams, and either succeeded or failed on three sets of intermediately difficult anagrams. Attributions and body movements were predicted by a combination of locus of control, initial confidence, and type of outcome. High-confident internals attributed responsibility for outcomes to themselves more than did low-confident externals, and this difference was most prominent when subjects failed. Tension-indicating body movements were also less common among the former than the latter subjects and were in greater evidence with failure than with success. The data indicate that there is consistency between locus of control and causal attributions obtained during performances. The data also correspond to the findings on helplessness in which aversive agents prove to be more deleterious when individuals perceive themselves as unable to alter their negative circumstances.

Achievement↗

PubMed2001

Socio-economic disparities in preterm birth: causal pathways and mechanisms.

Preterm birth is the leading cause of infant mortality in industrialised societies. Its incidence is greatly increased among the socially disadvantaged, but the reasons for this excess are unclear and have been relatively unexplored. We hypothesise two distinct sets of causal pathways and mechanisms that may explain social disparities in preterm birth. The first set involves chronic and acute psychosocial stressors, psychological distress caused by those stressors, increased secretion of placental corticotropin releasing hormone (CRH), changes in sexual behaviours or enhanced susceptibility to bacterial vaginosis and chorioamnionitis, cigarette smoking or cocaine use, and decidual vasculopathy. The second hypothesised pathway is a gene-environment interaction based on a highly prevalent mutation in the gene for methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR), combined with low folate intake from the diet and from prenatal vitamin supplements, consequent hyperhomocysteinemia, and decidual vasculopathy. We propose to test these hypothesised pathways and mechanisms in a nested case-control study within a prospectively recruited and followed cohort of pregnant women with singleton pregnancies who deliver at one of four Montreal hospitals that serve an ethnically and socio-economically diverse population. Following recruitment during the late first or early second trimester, participating women are seen at 24-26 weeks, when a research nurse obtains a detailed medical and obstetric history; administers several scales to assess chronic and acute stressors and psychological function; obtains blood samples for CRH, red blood cell and plasma folate, homocysteine, and DNA for the MTHFR mutation; and performs a digital and speculum examination to measure cervical length and vaginal pH and to obtain swabs for bacterial vaginosis and fetal fibronectin. After delivery, each case (delivery at < 37 completed weeks following spontaneous onset of labour or prelabour rupture of membranes) and two controls are selected for placental pathological examination, hair analysis of cotinine, cocaine, and benzoylecgonine, and analysis of stored blood and vaginal specimens. Statistical analysis will be based on multiple logistic regression and structural equation modelling, with sequential construction of models of potential aetiological determinants and covariates to test the hypothesised causal pathways and mechanisms. The research we propose should improve understanding of the factors and processes that mediate social disparities in preterm birth. This improved understanding should help not only in developing strategies to reduce the disparities but also in suggesting preventive interventions applicable across the entire socio-economic spectrum.

Adult↗

PubMed1999

Lack of causal relationship between clusterin expression and photoreceptor apoptosis in light-induced retinal degeneration.

Induction of apoptosis in the retina leads to cellular death by molecular mechanisms that are not well understood. Clusterin expression is increased in tissues undergoing apoptosis, including retinal neurodegenerative states, but the causal relationships remain to be clarified. To gain insight into clusterin's role in photoreceptor apoptosis, the cellular distribution of clusterin mRNA was compared with the pattern of apoptotic nuclear labelling in a rat model of light-induced retinal degeneration. In control retinal sections, clusterin mRNA was localized to the retinal pigment epithelium cells, photoreceptor inner segments, inner nuclear layer, and ganglion cell layer. Clusterin expression decreased in photoreceptors and retinal pigment epithelium cells, which progressively degenerated, and increased in preserved inner nuclear layer, in proportion to the duration of light exposure in both cyclic light- and dark-reared animals. These results suggest that clusterin is not causally involved in apoptotic mechanisms of photoreceptor death, but may relate to cytoprotective functions.

Animals↗

PubMed1996

Descriptive features and causal attributions of headache in an Australian community.

The reported characteristics and causes of headache differ across individuals and between groups. Such differences are of interest from an epidemiological point of view. This study set out to identify the main descriptive features and causal attributions of headache within an Australian urban community. A sample of 261 subjects reporting headache volunteered to participate in the survey. Subjects completed a self-report questionnaire for assessing demographic variables, headache parameters (intensity, duration, etc), headache medication habits, and perceived causes of one's headache (as in the UK headache survey by Blau, 1990). Results revealed that the typical headache sufferer was a middle-aged employed individual. Migraine versus tension headache were equivalent in number, and on the average, subjects experienced moderate intensity, day-long headaches that recurred about nine times per month. With regard to causal attributions, the prevalence of headaches due to mental stress was higher than that due to any other single stimulus (eg, noise, exercise), and alcohol was the most frequent dietary cause of headache. These findings are generally consistent with those from previous surveys, although some interesting departures emerge which may be accounted for by demographic differences in the populations studied.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2001

Suicide, depression, and isotretinoin: is there a causal link?

This paper examines the existing literature and MedWatch reports concerning a proposed relationship between isotretinoin and depression and suicide. The authors provide a brief overview of the biology of isotretinoin and depressive disorder and find no basis for a putative molecular mechanism linking the two. They also address the complexities of Substance-Induced Mood Disorder (SIMD) as a psychiatric diagnosis and its relevance to isotretinoin. Based on this review, the authors conclude that there is no evidence to support a causal connection between isotretinoin and major depression or suicide, because reported cases do not meet the established criteria for causality. The authors also conclude, however, that it is important for dermatologists to be aware of the risk factors for suicide and to monitor patients who exhibit depressive symptoms.

Acne Vulgaris↗