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PubMed1978

Enchanced accuracy of coliform testing in seawater by a modification of the most-probable-number method.

A 1-year study of marine water sample from six beach locations showed that the most-probable-number method failed to recover significant numbers of coli-forms. Modifying this method by transferring, after 48 h, presumptive negatives (growth and no gas production) to confirmed and fecal coliform media significantly improved recovery. Tests which were presumptive negative but confirmed as fecal coliform positive were designated as false negatives. Most-probable-number method false negatives occurred throughout the year, with 143 of 270 samples collected producing false negatives. More than 50% of fecal coliform false-negative isolates were Escherichia coli. Inclusion of false-negative tubes into the coliform most-probable-number method data resulted in increased violation of the California ocean water contact sports standard at all sites. More than 20% of the samples collected were in violation of this standard. These data indicate that modification of the most-probable-number method increases detection of coliform numbers in the marine environment.

Bacteriological Techniques↗

PubMed1988

Enumeration of Tn5 mutant bacteria in soil by using a most- probable-number-DNA hybridization procedure and antibiotic resistance.

Investigations were made into the utility of DNA hybridization in conjunction with a microdilution most-probable-number procedure for the enumeration of Rhizobium spp. and Pseudomonas putida in soil. Isolates of Rhizobium spp. and P. putida carrying the transposon Tn5 were added to sterile and nonsterile Burbank sandy loam soil and enumerated over time. Soil populations of rhizobia were enumerated by colony hybridization, most-probable-number-DNA hybridization procedure, plate counts, plant infectivity most probable number, and fluorescent antibody counts. Population values compared well for all methods at 5 and 30 days after the addition of cells, although the fluorescent antibody method tended to overestimate the viable population. In nonsterile soil, most-probable-number-DNA hybridization procedure enumerated as few as 10 P. putida Tn5 cells g of soil-1 and 100 R. leguminosarum bv. phaseoli Tn5 cells g of soil-1 and should have utility for following the fate of genetically engineered microorganisms released to the environment. Among the Kmr isolates containing Tn5, approximately 5% gave a dark, more intense autoradiograph when probed with 32P-labeled pGS9 DNA, which facilitated their detection in soil. Hybridization with a pCU101 probe (pGS9 without Tn5) indicated that donor plasmid sequences were being maintained in the bacterial chromosome. Transposon-associated antibiotic resistance was also utilized as a phenotypic marker. Tn5 vector-integrate mutants were successfully enumerated at low populations (10 to 100 cells g of soil-1) in soil by both phenotypic (Kmr) and genotypic (DNA probe) analysis. However, determination of the stability of Tn5 or Tn5 and vector sequences in the bacteria is necessary.

Bacteriological Techniques↗

PubMed2003

Exhaled nitric oxide rather than lung function distinguishes preschool children with probable asthma.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory function and airway inflammation can be evaluated in preschool children with special techniques, but their relative power in identifying young children with asthma has not been studied. This study was undertaken to compare the value of exhaled nitric oxide (FE(NO)), baseline lung function, and bronchodilator responsiveness in identifying children with newly detected probable asthma. METHODS: Ninety six preschool children (age 3.8-7.5 years) with asthmatic symptoms or history and 62 age matched healthy non-atopic controls were studied. FE(NO) was measured with the standard online single exhalation technique, and baseline lung function and bronchodilator responsiveness were measured using impulse oscillometry (IOS). RESULTS: Children with probable asthma (n=21), characterised by recent recurrent wheeze, had a significantly higher mean (SE) concentration of FE(NO) than controls (22.1 (3.4) ppb v 5.3 (0.4) ppb; mean difference 16.8 ppb, 95% CI 12.0 to 21.5) and also had higher baseline respiratory resistance, lower reactance, and larger bronchodilator responses expressed as the change in resistance after inhalation of salbutamol. Children with chronic cough only (n=46) also had significantly raised mean FE(NO) (9.2 (1.5) ppb; mean difference 3.9 ppb, 95% CI 0.8 to 7.0) but their lung function was not significantly reduced. Children on inhaled steroids due to previously diagnosed asthma (n=29) differed from the controls only in their baseline lung function. The analysis of receiver operating characteristics (ROC) showed that FE(NO) provided the best power for discriminating between children with probable asthma and healthy controls, with a sensitivity of 86% and specificity of 92% at the cut off level of 1.5 SD above predicted. CONCLUSIONS: FE(NO) is superior to baseline respiratory function and bronchodilator responsiveness in identifying preschool children with probable asthma. The results emphasise the presence of airway inflammation in the early stages of asthma, even in young children.

Airway Resistance↗

PubMed1992

Nonpalpable, probably benign lesions: role of follow-up mammography.

Of 21,855 consecutive women prospectively studied with mammography, physical examination, and high-resolution ultrasonography when appropriate, 558 received a diagnosis of nonpalpable, probably benign lesions. Follow-up mammography was recommended for these patients. Characteristically benign lesions and palpable masses were excluded from analysis. The positive predictive value for detection of a nonpalpable, probably benign breast lesion was 0.017. Nine patients ultimately proved to have carcinoma; two of them had noninvasive carcinoma, and two had axillary node metastases. The positive predictive value for detection of a nonpalpable, probably malignant lesion was 0.47. The policy of recommending mammographic surveillance for nonpalpable, probably benign lesions, a viable option for radiologists, has the capability of lowering the rate and therefore the costs of biopsy procedures with negative results.

Adult↗

PubMed1988

Nonuniform release probabilities underlie quantal synaptic transmission at a mammalian excitatory central synapse.

1. Excitatory postsynaptic potentials (EPSPs) evoked by impulses in single group I muscle afferents were recorded in dorsal spinocerebellar tract (DSCT) neurons in the spinal cords of anesthetized cats. Fluctuations in the amplitude of these single-fiber EPSPs were determined from measurements of EPSP peak amplitude and contaminating noise (800-4600 trials). 2. In a previous study at this connection, we found that these single-fiber EPSPs fluctuated in amplitude between approximately equal, or quantal, increments. However, these quantal fluctuations could not be described by simple binomial statistics (39). In the present study we have applied further analysis procedures to the same single-fiber EPSPs to formulate a more appropriate probabilistic model of transmission at this connection. 3. In the first stage we have demonstrated that each single-fiber EPSP is composed of the sum of a number (3-30) of uniform quantal events, and that there is extremely little variability in the amplitude of the single quantal event. 4. In a further procedure, we have demonstrated that these quantal fluctuations can be described by a compound binomial model in which each underlying quantal event is associated with a particular, but independent, release probability. The results of this analysis indicate that the probability of transmitter release varies considerably between release sites at this connection. (The use of such a compound binomial model reemphasized previous warnings concerning the interpretation of the results of all statistical models of quantal release. Problems regarding the non-unique nature of N, the total population of quantal events, and other such difficulties are discussed.) 5. A model of transmission at this connection is proposed, in which there are a number of "active" release sites, exhibiting generally high release probabilities, and a number of "reserve" release sites, with zero, or close to zero, release probability. The physiological consequences of such a scheme are discussed.

Afferent Pathways↗

PubMed1999

Plasma insulin-like growth factor-I and serum IGF-binding protein 3 can be associated with the progression of breast cancer, and predict the risk of recurrence and the probability of survival in African-American and Hispanic women.

In vitro studies have shown that insulin-like growth factor (IGF) is a mitogen for breast cancer cells. However, the associations of plasma IGF-I with tumor histopathology in high-risk groups need further investigation. We hypothesize that plasma IGF-I and serum IGFBP3 concentrations in breast cancer patients may provide useful information on the progression of their disease, and determine the probability of recurrence and survival. We have carried out a retrospective study on 130 minority breast cancer patients. Plasma IGF-I and serum IGFBP3 were correlated with tumor histopathology, menopausal status, treatment modality, recurrence rates, and probability of survival. Plasma IGF-I and serum IGFBP3 were measured by radioimmunoassay. Our studies show that breast cancer patients have elevated plasma IGF-I and serum IGFBP3 levels. In addition we observed the following: IGF-I did not correlate with age and nodal stage. IGF-I and IGFBP3 increased with tumor size (T4). IGF-I did not correlate with estrogen receptor status, but did increase in progesterone-receptor-positive patients. IGF-I levels were higher in premenopausal patients and in women with cancer recurrence. Tamoxifen reduced IGF-I levels significantly and reduced the risk of recurrence. The survival probability was greater in patients with plasma IGF-I levels <120 ng/ml. In conclusion, lowering of plasma IGF-I may offer the following benefits: (a) reduce the risk of developing breast cancer in high-risk groups; (b) slow the progression of breast cancer in patients at early stages of cancer; (c) lower the risk of recurrence, and (d) increase the probability of survival.

Adult↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Evaluation of prolonged fetal monitoring with normal and pathologic outcome probabilities determined by artificial neural network.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to objectively evaluate prolonged fetal heart rate (FHR) monitoring, which has been difficult to do with conventional cardiotocogram (CTG). METHODS: FHR was analyzed by an artificial neural network computer that calculates probabilities of normal, pathologic and suspicious outcome. Earlier normal and pathologic outcome probabilities (OPs) recorded during 15-min intervals are averaged every 5 min. Initially, two curves (the averaged normal and pathologic OPs) are compared. Furthermore, a single curve traced for each difference between the averaged normal and pathologic OPs and its value are studied. Our FHR probability data are of 9 cases reported in a previous paper on neural network FHR analysis. RESULTS: In the 4 cases of normal neonatal condition, the trends of the averaged curves and the last averaged values were higher for normal OP than for pathologic OP, and the final values of the difference were >0. On the other hand, in the 5 cases of neonatal depression, the trend of the two curves and the final values were lower for normal than for pathologic OP; and the final difference values of averaged probabilities were <0. For prolonged monitoring, the single parameter is more useful than the comparison of the two curves. CONCLUSION: A useful single parameter is obtained for the accurate and objective evaluation of prolonged FHR monitoring. The present method is promising for prospective studies using the combined system of experts and neural computers.

Female↗

PubMed2003

A probability model for ultrasound estimation of bladder volume in the diagnosis of female urinary retention.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate a probability model for ultrasound estimation of bladder volume in the diagnosis of female urinary retention, which is a common condition in the postpartum period. METHODS: A total of 53 women with vaginal delivery were recruited on postpartum day 1, and their bladder volumes were first estimated by ultrasound. Immediately after the ultrasound scans the bladders were catheterized for the true bladder volumes. The ultrasound-estimated bladder volumes were then compared with the catheterized bladder volumes. The data were first tested for non-normality, and then logarithmic transformed in order to conform to normality. A probability model was built using the logarithmic-transformed data, based on the following: an arbitrary cut-off value of 150 ml for urinary retention, linear regression analysis, and paired difference analysis. RESULTS: There was a linear relationship between the ultrasound-estimated and catheterized bladder volumes, which can be represented by the equation: log(10) (Vc) = 0.2959 + 0.8853 log(10) (Vu), where Vc = catheterized bladder volume, and Vu = ultrasound-estimated bladder volume. A normogram was constructed, and the probability of urinary retention presented. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study showed that our method and statistics are logical by which the probability model of urinary retention is precise enough to support clinical decision-making.

Female↗

PubMed2004

Estimating the probability of cancer with several tumor markers in patients with colorectal disease.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to evaluate and compare serum tumor markers, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), CA 19-9, CA 242, CA 72-4 and hCGbeta, and their value in the diagnosis of malignant colorectal disease. METHODS: The serum concentrations of the markers were measured in 204 patients with colorectal cancer and in 104 inpatients with benign colorectal disease. The combined use of the markers was evaluated with a logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: When all five markers were evaluated in the same model, only CEA and CA 72-4 provided significant diagnostic information (p < 0.001), indicating that their combination improves the accuracy. The probability of cancer for each patient was calculated entering CEA and CA 72-4 in the logistic regression model. Receiver-operating characteristic curves were constructed, and the difference in the area under the curve (AUC) values was determined between the markers and the calculated probability of cancer. Of the individual markers, the highest AUC was observed for CEA (AUC = 0.746). The difference in the AUC between CEA and CA 72-4 (AUC = 0.716) was insignificant (p = 0.492), but between CEA and the other three markers it was significant (p < 0.015). The calculated probability of cancer index, based on a combination of CEA and CA 72-4, had a significantly higher AUC (AUC = 0.804) than CEA alone (AUC = 0.746; p = 0.046). CONCLUSIONS: The diagnostic value of CA 72-4 was additive to that of CEA in colorectal cancer, and both markers contributed with significant diagnostic information. As a diagnostic test, the probability of cancer calculated with logistic regression provided higher accuracy than any of the markers alone, implying that it might be a useful diagnostic tool.

Adult↗

PubMed2004

Impact of applying NINDS-AIREN criteria of probable vascular dementia to clinical and radiological characteristics of a stroke cohort with dementia.

BACKGROUND: There are no data concerning the relative representation of clinical vascular risk factors and radiological lesions in cases that have been ruled in and ruled out for probable vascular dementia (VaD) according to NINDS-AIREN criteria. METHODS: Three months after their index stroke, a psychiatrist interviewed patients and made a diagnosis of VaD according to both DSM-IV and NINDS-AIREN criteria for probable VaD. Patients who fulfilled the DSM-IV criteria for VaD were divided into two groups: those who were ruled in and ruled out according to NINDS-AIREN criteria as probable VaD. Demographic characteristics, vascular risk factors, clinical features of the index stroke and radiological findings were then compared between the two groups. RESULTS: Of the 297 patients screened, 56 (18.8%) had a DSM-IV diagnosis of dementia. Among these demented patients, 55 (98.2%) and 22 (39.3%) fulfilled DSM-IV and NINDS-AIREN diagnosis of VaD, respectively. The concordance and level of agreement (kappa statistic) between DSM-IV and NINDS-AIREN diagnoses were 40% and 0.02, respectively. Reasons of failure to meet NINDS-AIREN criteria included the lack of temporal relationship between dementia and stroke (n = 20), the absence of focal neurological signs and/or radiological evidence of stroke (n = 6) and both of the above (n = 7). There was no significant difference between the above two groups in terms of demographic data, features of index stroke, vascular risk factors and CT scan findings, except that leukoaraiosis (p = 0.021) and bilateral lesions (p = 0.015) were more frequent in subjects diagnosed according to NINDS-AIREN criteria of probable VaD. The difference between these two groups with respect to the number of lesions was borderline for significance (p = 0.052). CONCLUSIONS: The use of NINDS-AIREN criteria for VaD for case selection in poststroke dementia research may exclude a number of subjects with VaD.

Acute Disease↗

PubMed1995

Probability and characteristics of human immunodeficiency virus infection in male Greek military personnel with tuberculosis.

The probability of an AIDS patient being infected with tuberculosis (TB) has been studied in different populations and found to be increased by as much as 500 times, but the reverse, i.e. the probability of a patient with TB being infected with HIV, has not been studied. The aim of this study was to investigate the hypothesis of greater HIV seropositivity and altered immune status, as indicated by CD4+ T-lymphocyte counts, in TB patients. We prospectively studied 162 males, aged 18-30 years, hospitalized for active, proven TB. Serum for HIV antibodies was tested twice by ELISA and confirmed by the Western blot technique. The control group consisted of 145,000 blood donor volunteers serving in the army, aged 18-30 years. The number of CD4+ T lymphocytes was also measured in the patients and the control group. We found that the rate of HIV seropositivity in TB patients was 2.4% (4 of 162), while it was 0.214% in the control group (p < 0.0001). Using the Bayes' theorem we found that the probability of a TB patient being infected with HIV was 9.1%, approximately 150 times higher than the expected rate in the matched control group (p < 0.0001). The number of CD4+ T lymphocytes was significantly lower in pulmonary and extrapulmonary TB patients than in the control group, taking into account the HIV status (p < 0.001). Our results suggest that there is a 150 times greater probability of a TB patient being infected with HIV. CD4+ T lymphocytes are significantly lower in all groups of TB patients.

AIDS-Related Opportunistic Infections↗

PubMed1990

Estimation of the probability of disturbed breathing during sleep before a sleep study.

We have investigated the ability of a statistical model developed from clinical data and questionnaire responses to predict disturbance of breathing during sleep. Data from 100 consecutive patients referred for sleep study for suspected sleep apnea were used to develop the model using logistic regression analysis. For each subject, the model predicted the probability of having an apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) greater than 15; this probability was compared with the AHI measured from sleep study. A probability cutoff point (= 0.15) was decided on that minimized the number of subjects with false-negative predictions. Four terms--apneas observed by bed partner, hypertension, body mass index, and age--were found to contribute significantly to the model with observed apneas being by far the most predictive term of the four (adjusted odds ratio 19.7). When the model was tested to estimate the probability of an AHI greater than 15 for 105 patients from a second group of consecutive patients referred for sleep study, the model correctly classified 33 of 36 patients with a measured AHI greater than 15 (sensitivity = 92%) and 35 of 69 patients with a measured AHI less than or equal to 15(specificity = 51%). This study shows that analysis of clinical features of patients presenting with suspected sleep apnea may reduce the need for sleep studies by about one-third yet still lead to the identification of the great majority of patients with abnormal breathing during sleep.

Female↗

PubMed1987

Five-year recurrence probabilities in 330 patients curatively resected for stage Ia bronchogenic carcinoma.

Three hundred and thirty consecutive cases of resected Stage Ia (TNM UICC classification) lung carcinomas were retrospectively reviewed with the aim of evaluating actuarial probabilities of recurrence within the 5th year from operation, according to the extent of resection, the cell type, and the T number. The probabilities of recurrence according to the pattern of failure were also assessed. Five-year overall probability of recurrence was 46.3%. Pneumonectomies showed a lower rate of relapse (37.4%) than lobectomies (49.2%), even though non significant. However, patients submitted to a lobectomy had a higher rate of 5-year survivors. Cell type had no significant impact on the probability of recurrence. 35.5% of patients with T1 carcinomas had evidence of relapse compared with 51.1% of patients with T2 tumors. This datum is explained by the presence in T1 group of a high share of squamous cell cases. Patients with T1 squamous cell carcinomas had, in fact, the best prognosis (26.5% recurred) among the subgroups obtained by stratification of T number and cell type together; loco-regional failure as exclusive modality of relapse had a 5-year rate of 19.7% and metastatic failure of 30.0%. Adenocarcinomas had a significantly higher impact on the occurrence of brain metastases.

Adult↗

PubMed2004

Incidence and management of proven and probable fungal infections in patients with acute leukemia: a single center experience.

The incidence of fungal infections and the role of liposomal amphotericin B (Ambisome) in proven and probable infections were evaluated in acute leukemic patients, intolerant to conventional amphotericin B. During 1999-2002, 307 febrile episodes occurred in 231 patients. Fungi were responsible for 3% of bloodstream infections. Ambisome was employed in 5 fungal sepsis (1 Candida albicans, 1 C. famata, 1 C. tropicalis, 1 C. krusei, 1 Geotrichum capitatum) 2 Aspergillosis, 2 probable fungal pneumonia cases. A favorable response was achieved in 78% of patients (4 fungemia, 2 aspergillosis, 1 probable), an unfavorable response in 1 C. krusei fungemia and in 1 probable pneumonia. Our antimicrobial pattern documented a high resistance rate to azoles. We concluded that Ambisome is an effective and well tolerated agent and its introduction has changed the outcome for many patients, although in some refractory diseases other strategies must be considered.

Adolescent↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Computation of identity by descent probabilities conditional on DNA markers via a Monte Carlo Markov Chain method.

The accurate estimation of the probability of identity by descent (IBD) at loci or genome positions of interest is paramount to the genetic study of quantitative and disease resistance traits. We present a Monte Carlo Markov Chain method to compute IBD probabilities between individuals conditional on DNA markers and on pedigree information. The IBDs can be obtained in a completely general pedigree at any genome position of interest, and all marker and pedigree information available is used. The method can be split into two steps at each iteration. First, phases are sampled using current genotypic configurations of relatives and second, crossover events are simulated conditional on phases. Internal track is kept of all founder origins and crossovers such that the IBD probabilities averaged over replicates are rapidly obtained. We illustrate the method with some examples. First, we show that all pedigree information should be used to obtain line origin probabilities in F2 crosses. Second, the distribution of genetic relationships between half and full sibs is analysed in both simulated data and in real data from an F2 cross in pigs.

Journal Article↗

PubMed2006

Estimating probabilities of peptide database identifications to LC-FTICR-MS observations.

BACKGROUND: The field of proteomics involves the characterization of the peptides and proteins expressed in a cell under specific conditions. Proteomics has made rapid advances in recent years following the sequencing of the genomes of an increasing number of organisms. A prominent technology for high throughput proteomics analysis is the use of liquid chromatography coupled to Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (LC-FTICR-MS). Meaningful biological conclusions can best be made when the peptide identities returned by this technique are accompanied by measures of accuracy and confidence. METHODS: After a tryptically digested protein mixture is analyzed by LC-FTICR-MS, the observed masses and normalized elution times of the detected features are statistically matched to the theoretical masses and elution times of known peptides listed in a large database. The probability of matching is estimated for each peptide in the reference database using statistical classification methods assuming bivariate Gaussian probability distributions on the uncertainties in the masses and the normalized elution times. RESULTS: A database of 69,220 features from 32 LC-FTICR-MS analyses of a tryptically digested bovine serum albumin (BSA) sample was matched to a database populated with 97% false positive peptides. The percentage of high confidence identifications was found to be consistent with other database search procedures. BSA database peptides were identified with high confidence on average in 14.1 of the 32 analyses. False positives were identified on average in just 2.7 analyses. CONCLUSION: Using a priori probabilities that contrast peptides from expected and unexpected proteins was shown to perform better in identifying target peptides than using equally likely a priori probabilities. This is because a large percentage of the target peptides were similar to unexpected peptides which were included to be false positives. The use of triplicate analyses with a "2 out of 3" reporting rule was shown to have excellent rejection of false positives.

Journal Article↗

PubMed2005

Comparison of the unstructured clinician estimate of pretest probability for pulmonary embolism to the Canadian score and the Charlotte rule: a prospective observational study.

OBJECTIVES: Clinical decision rules have been validated for estimation of pretest probability in patients with suspected pulmonary embolism (PE). However, many clinicians prefer to use clinical gestalt for this purpose. The authors compared the unstructured clinical estimate of pretest probability for PE with two clinical decision rules. METHODS: This prospective, observational study was conducted from October 2001 to July 2004 at an urban academic emergency department with an annual census of 105,000. A total of 2,603 patients were enrolled; mean age (+/- SD) was 45 (+/- 16) years, and 70% were female. All patients were evaluated for PE using a previously published protocol, including D-dimer and alveolar dead space measurements, and selected use of pulmonary vascular imaging. All had 45-day follow-up. Interobserver agreement for each pretest probability estimation method was measured in a separate group of 154 patients. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of PE was 5.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 4.9% to 6.8%). Most were deemed low risk for PE, including 69% by the unstructured estimate < 15%, 73% by the Canadian score < 2, and 88% by the Charlotte rule "safe." The corresponding prevalence of disease in each of these low-risk groups was 2.6%, 3.0%, and 4.2%. Weighted Cohen's kappa values were 0.60 (95% CI = 0.46 to 0.74) for the unstructured clinical estimate < 15%, 0.47 (95% CI = 0.33 to 0.61) for the Canadian score < 2, and 0.85 (95% CI = 0.69 to 1.0) for the Charlotte rule "safe." CONCLUSIONS: The unstructured clinical estimate of low pretest probability for PE compares favorably with the Canadian score and the Charlotte rule. Interobserver agreement for the unstructured estimate is moderate.

Decision Support Techniques↗

PubMed2006

Assessing BRCA carrier probabilities in extended families.

PURPOSE: Carrier prediction models estimate the probability that a person has a BRCA mutation. We evaluated the accuracy of the BOADICEA model and compared its performance with that of other models (BRCAPRO, Myriad I and II, Couch, and Manchester Scoring System). We also studied the effect of extended family information on risk estimation using BOADICEA. METHODS: We compared the area under receiver operating characteristic curves generated from 472 families with one member tested for BRCA mutations. We calculated sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values at an estimated probability of 10% and explored the biases of carrier prediction. RESULTS: BOADICEA performed better than the other models in Ashkenazi Jewish (AJ) families, BRCAPRO performed slightly better in non-AJ families, and Myriad II performed comparably well in both groups. Including extended family information in BOADICEA yielded slightly better performance than did limiting the information to second-degree relatives. Using a 10% cutoff point, BOADICEA and Myriad II were most sensitive in predicting BRCA1/2 mutations in AJ families, and Myriad II was most sensitive in non-AJ families. The Manchester Scoring System was the most sensitive and least specific in a subgroup of non-AJ families. BOADICEA and BRCAPRO tended to underestimate the observed risk at low estimated probabilities and overestimate it at higher probabilities. CONCLUSION: The BOADICEA, BRCAPRO, and Myriad II models performed similarly. Including second-degree relatives slightly improved carrier prediction by BOADICEA. The Myriad II model was the easiest to implement.

Adult↗