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Effects of quality improvement strategies for type 2 diabetes on glycemic control: a meta-regression analysis.

CONTEXT: There have been numerous reports of interventions designed to improve the care of patients with diabetes, but the effectiveness of such interventions is unclear. OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact on glycemic control of 11 distinct strategies for quality improvement (QI) in adults with type 2 diabetes. DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION: MEDLINE (1966-April 2006) and the Cochrane Collaboration's Effective Practice and Organisation of Care Group database, which covers multiple bibliographic databases. Eligible studies included randomized or quasi-randomized controlled trials and controlled before-after studies that evaluated a QI intervention targeting some aspect of clinician behavior or organizational change and reported changes in glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) values. DATA EXTRACTION: Postintervention difference in HbA1c values were estimated using a meta-regression model that included baseline glycemic control and other key intervention and study features as predictors. DATA SYNTHESIS: Fifty randomized controlled trials, 3 quasi-randomized trials, and 13 controlled before-after trials met all inclusion criteria. Across these 66 trials, interventions reduced HbA(1c) values by a mean of 0.42% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.29%-0.54%) over a median of 13 months of follow-up. Trials with fewer patients than the median for all included trials reported significantly greater effects than did larger trials (0.61% vs 0.27%, P = .004), strongly suggesting publication bias. Trials with mean baseline HbA1c values of 8.0% or greater also reported significantly larger effects (0.54% vs 0.20%, P = .005). Adjusting for these effects, 2 of the 11 categories of QI strategies were associated with reductions in HbA(1c) values of at least 0.50%: team changes (0.67%; 95% CI, 0.43%-0.91%; n = 26 trials) and case management (0.52%; 95% CI, 0.31%-0.73%; n = 26 trials); these also represented the only 2 strategies conferring significant incremental reductions in HbA1c values. Interventions involving team changes reduced values by 0.33% more (95% CI, 0.12%-0.54%; P = .004) than those without this strategy, and those involving case management reduced values by 0.22% more (95% CI, 0.00%-0.44%; P = .04) than those without case management. Interventions in which nurse or pharmacist case managers could make medication adjustments without awaiting physician authorization reduced values by 0.80% (95% CI, 0.51%-1.10%), vs only 0.32% (95% CI, 0.14%-0.49%) for all other interventions (P = .002). CONCLUSIONS: Most QI strategies produced small to modest improvements in glycemic control. Team changes and case management showed more robust improvements, especially for interventions in which case managers could adjust medications without awaiting physician approval. Estimates of the effectiveness of other specific QI strategies may have been limited by difficulty in classifying complex interventions, insufficient numbers of studies, and publication bias.

Blood Glucose↗

Local weather effects on emergency department visits: a time series and regression analysis.

OBJECTIVE: The ability to forecast atypical emergency department (ED) volumes may aid staff/resource allocation. We determine whether deviations from short-term predictions of weather can be used to forecast deviations from short-term predictions of ED volumes. METHODS: In this retrospective study, we attempted to predict the volume of patient visits to an academic pediatric ED based on short-interval local weather patterns (2000). Local temperature and precipitation data in 1- and 3-hour increments were obtained. Precipitation was coded to be present if it exceeded 0.04 in and subclassified as cold rain/snow if the ambient temperature was lower than 40 degrees F. ED visits were categorized as injuries, emergent, or nonemergent visits. For each category of visit, Box-Jenkins Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average time-series models were created of natural trends and cycles in temperature and patient volumes. From these models, differences (residuals) between predicted and observed values of these variables were estimated. The correlation between residuals for temperature and ED volumes was derived for various kinds of ED visit, after controlling for type/volume of precipitation. RESULTS: Residuals for ambient temperature controlled for precipitation correlated poorly with residuals for patient volumes, accounting for 1% to 6% of the variability in the volume of injuries, emergent, and nonemergent visits (R2 = 1%, 1%, and 6%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Deviations from short-term predictions of temperature correlate poorly with deviations from predictions of patient volume after adjusting for natural trends and cycles in these variables and controlling for precipitation. These weather variables are of little practical benefit for predicting fluctuations in the rates of ED utilization.

Child↗

The role of early adverse experience and adulthood stress in the prediction of neuroendocrine stress reactivity in women: a multiple regression analysis.

Sensitization of stress-responsive neurobiological systems as a possible consequence of early adverse experience has been implicated in the pathophysiology of mood and anxiety disorders. In addition to early adversities, adulthood stressors are also known to precipitate the manifestation of these disorders. The present study sought to evaluate the relative role of early adverse experience vs. stress experiences in adulthood in the prediction of neuroendocrine stress reactivity in women. A total of 49 women (normal volunteers, depressed patients, and women with a history of early abuse) underwent a battery of interviews and completed dimensional rating scales on stress experiences and psychopathology, and were subsequently exposed to a standardized psychosocial laboratory stressor. Outcome measures were plasma adrenocorticotropin (ACTH) and cortisol responses to the stress test. Multiple linear regression analyses were performed to identify the impact of demographic variables, childhood abuse, adulthood trauma, major life events in the past year, and daily hassles in the past month, as well as psychopathology on hormonal stress responsiveness. Peak ACTH responses to psychosocial stress were predicted by a history of childhood abuse, the number of separate abuse events, the number of adulthood traumas, and the severity of depression. Similar predictors were identified for peak cortisol responses. Although abused women reported more severe negative life events in adulthood than controls, life events did not affect neuroendocrine reactivity. The regression model explained 35% of the variance of ACTH responses. The interaction of childhood abuse and adulthood trauma was the most powerful predictor of ACTH responsiveness. Our findings suggest that a history of childhood abuse per se is related to increased neuroendocrine stress reactivity, which is further enhanced when additional trauma is experienced in adulthood.

Adrenocorticotropic Hormone↗

Coronary risk factors used to predict coronary artery disease by logistic regression analysis.

Risk factor analysis in coronary artery disease was conducted in 303 patients who underwent coronary arteriography to identify associations between personal characteristics and the prevalence of coronary heart disease. Age, sex, obesity, smoking, alcohol intake, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, serum uric acid, total cholesterol, LDL- and HDL-cholesterol, triglyceride, and atherogenic indices were statistically analyzed. All 13 variables were first compared between patients with positive and negative ergonovine tests. Only total cholesterol was significantly different, while significant differences in age, sex, history of diabetes, total cholesterol, LDL- and HDL-cholesterol, triglyceride and atherosclerotic indices were observed between patients with and without organic coronary artery stenosis. A multivariate analysis was performed, and the resulting equation was tested using the remaining patients. Logistic analysis of all 13 variables identified 5 (age, sex, diabetes mellitus, LDL- and HDL-cholesterol) which accounted for the differences between patients with and without significant coronary artery disease and that were validated in the test group. The sensitivity for prediction of coronary artery disease was 75.8%, specificity 68.5%, and predictive accuracy 71.5% in the test group. Thus, risk factor analysis appears to be very valuable in screening subjects with high-risk organic coronary stenosis and in optimizing the preventive and therapeutic modalities, but not in predicting vasospastic subjects.

Cholesterol↗

Effects in the rat of environmental temperature, diet dilution, and treadmill running on liver and adipose enzymes and metabolism of 14C-glucose: a multiple regression analysis.

The effects of two environmental temperatures (T; 16 degrees and 31 degrees), five diet dilutions (D; 0%, 12.5%, 25%, 37.5% and 50%), and five daily treadmill running periods (E; 10 minutes, 40 minutes, 70 minutes, 100 minutes, and 130 minutes) upon enzyme activities of liver and adipose tissue of male rats were observed. Liver enzymes studied were glucose-6-phosphatase (G6Pase), 6-P-gluconate dehydrogenase (6PGD), glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD), fructose diphosphatase (FDPase), NADP-isocitrate dehydrogenase (ICDH), and malic enzyme (ME). Adipose tissue (epididymal fat) enzymes (6PGD, G6PD, and ME) were studied as well as the in vitro incorporation of the 14C of [U-14C] glucose into liberated 14CO2 and into the triglycerides, free fatty acids, and total lipids by adipose tissue slices. Equations describing regression surfaces for these responses (expressed as units/100 g body weight) could contain significant linear coefficients of the independent variables (T, D, and E), their first order interactions, and quadratic coefficients for D and E. Significnat regression coefficients for activities of liver enzymes associated with increased lipogenesis (6PGD, G6PD, and ME) produced response surfaces with conformations generally concave downward. All enzymes possessed positive and negative linear and quadratic coefficients for D which caused response surfaces to be concave downward with respect to that variable. Also, 6PGD and G6PD (positive linear and negative quadratic coefficients for E) exhibited response surfaces concave downward with respect to E. Additionally, 6PGD showed greater activity at 31 degrees than at 16 degrees while G6PD showed no effect of temperature on activity. Liver ICDH, probably important in supplying reducing equivalents for fatty acid synthesis, evidenced response surfaces almost identical to those for 6PGD. Significant regression coefficients for activity of liver enzymes associated with increased gluconeogenesis (FDPase and G6Pase) produced for FDPase a response surface concave downward with respect to both D and E with greater values at 31 degrees than at 16 degrees; but for G6Pase non-concave surfaces with lesser values at 31 degrees than at 16 degrees. Significant regression coefficients for activities of adipose enzymes associated with increased lipogenesis produced for 6PGD a response surface concave upward due to negative linear and positive quadratic coefficients for both D and E. For G6PD and ME regression surfaces were concave upward with respect to E, but these were modified by positive and negative linear coefficients, respectively, for D. Significant regression coefficients for incorporation of the 14C of glucose into triglycerides and free fatty acids of adipose tissue slices and their production of 14CO2 yielded response surfaces concave upward with respect to E (negative linear and positive quadratic coefficients). In addition, the surface for free fatty acids was concave upward with respect to D. The 14CO2 production was greater at 16 degrees than at 31 degrees...

Adipose Tissue↗

Prognosis of myelodysplasic patients: non-parametric multiple regression analysis of populations stratified by mean corpuscular volume and marrow myeloblast number.

Myelodysplastic (MDS) patients at diagnosis (n = 162) were analysed by the International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS). The two intermediate groups were not significantly different. The IPSS was of limited value in predicting survival of MDS patients after preliminary separation into subgroups with < 5%, or >/= 5%, myeloblasts. Cox's proportional hazards analysis of these subgroups enabled discrimination of highly significant prognostic groups. In both subgroups, longer survival was associated with macrocytosis. Mean corpuscular volume (MCV) and marrow myeloblast number were used to define four groups with prognostic significance similar to the IPSS. A low-risk group was described by macrocytosis associated with < 5% myeloblasts and high risk was related to blast counts >/= 5% and MCV < 100 fl. Further analysis defined factors identifying very high-risk patients and those with benign disease, together with many intermediate survival patterns. Results were consistent in two time-separated patient groups.

Aged↗

beta Blockade after myocardial infarction: systematic review and meta regression analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the effectiveness of beta blockers in short term treatment for acute myocardial infarction and in longer term secondary prevention; to examine predictive factors that may influence outcome and therefore choice of drug; and to examine the clinical importance of the results in the light of current treatment. DESIGN: Systematic review of randomised controlled trials. SETTING: Randomised controlled trials. SUBJECTS: Patients with acute or past myocardial infarction. INTERVENTION: beta Blockers compared with control. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: All cause mortality and non-fatal reinfarction. RESULTS: Overall, 5477 of 54 234 patients (10.1%) randomised to beta blockers or control died. We identified a 23% reduction in the odds of death in long term trials (95% confidence interval 15% to 31%), but only a 4% reduction in the odds of death in short term trials (-8% to 15%). Meta regression in long term trials did not identify a significant reduction in effectiveness in drugs with cardioselectivity but did identify a near significant trend towards decreased benefit in drugs with intrinsic sympathomimetic activity. Most evidence is available for propranolol, timolol, and metoprolol. In long term trials, the number needed to treat for 2 years to avoid a death is 42, which compares favourably with other treatments for patients with acute or past myocardial infarction. CONCLUSIONS: beta Blockers are effective in long term secondary prevention after myocardial infarction, but they are underused in such cases and lead to avoidable mortality and morbidity.

Adrenergic beta-Antagonists↗

The influence of pH, pCO2 and concentrations of dyshemoglobins on the oxygen dissociation curve (ODC) of human blood determined by non-linear least squares regression analysis.

In the context of the ODC algorithm of Siggaard-Andersen the effects of pH, carbon dioxide tension (pCO2) and concentrations of dyshemoglobins: Carboxyhemoglobin (x COHb), methemoglobin (x MetHb) and fetal hemoglobin (x HbF) in terms of five constants, a1(0) to a5(0), were determined by a non-linear least squares analysis of 11700 records of data containing measured values of oxygen tension (pO2), oxygen saturation (sO2), as well as pH, pCO2, x COHb, x MetHb, x HbF. The standard values of a1(0) to a3(0) used in the ODC were found to be significantly different from those giving the best fit to the present data whereas the presently used coefficient for methemoglobin was found to be acceptable. The coefficient for fetal hemoglobin, a5(0), could not be determined due to insufficient data. pH and pCO2 effects were found to be correlated in the data and this fact accounts for some of the deviations of a1(0) and a2(0) from the standard values. The analysis evaluated the effect of pH as being stronger and the effect of pCO2 as being weaker than assumed in the standard model. Finally the effects of the concentrations of met- and carboxyhemoglobin were found to be correlated but no explanation of this fact is known at present.

Algorithms↗

Determination of parotid urea secretion in sheep by means of ultrasonic flow probes and a multifactorial regression analysis.

For determination of the dynamics of parotid urea secretion in conscious sheep, a previously standardized transit time ultrasonic flow metering system was used to measure bilateral parotid flow. Six ewes fed for ad libitum consumption were prepared under halothane anesthesia with ultrasonic probes around both parotid ducts; these ducts were also cannulated orally. After probe encapsulation (8 d), parotid flows were recorded during 24 h, and samples of saliva and blood for urea determination were obtained hourly. Jaw movements were recorded by means of a submandibular balloon to monitor feeding behavior. Urea concentration in parotid saliva was 60 to 74% of that in plasma (a positive linear correlation existed) and was poorly influenced by the parotid flow. The amount of urea secreted with parotid saliva was directly related to the salivation rate. To calculate the urea secretion in parotid saliva, a multiple linear regression model was developed from computer-calculated parotid flows over 1-min periods and plasma urea concentration. The model was accurate because the plot of calculated vs measured values was not significantly different from the line of identity. The daily parotid urea N varied from .35 to 1.02 g among ewes. The higher urea secretion rate found during rumination and eating (1.32+/-.42 and .98 +/-.33 mg/min, respectively) vs. during rest (.60+/-.39 mg/ min, P<.05) was due to higher salivation rates (5.17 +/-1.46, 3.56+/-.90, and 2.04+/-.52 mL/min, respectively, P<.05) rather than to changes in saliva urea concentrations (saliva:plasma urea ratio = .65+/-.04, .67+/-.04, and .68+/-.03, respectively). Of the daily parotid urea output, 40.8% was secreted during rest. The contribution of parotid urea N to the ruminal N pool was relatively small (1.2 to 3.7% of the N intake, which was 23.0 to 33.6 g/d). These techniques allowed direct and precise measurements of parotid urea secretion without disturbing the animal or altering the physiological regulation of salivary secretion.

Animals↗

A multiple regression analysis of family factors affecting the potential for alcoholism in college students.

This study explored the effects of the family system on the potential for alcoholism in college students. Analysis of the data indicated that students' gender, race, and how often they consumed alcohol were unrelated to the potential for alcoholism. However, perceived conflict in the students' family of origin appeared to increase the potential for alcoholism. This finding is consistent with family systems theory, used by many human service professionals as a basis for assessing and treating chemical dependency.

Adult↗

The use of non-linear regression analysis and the F test for model discrimination with dose-response curves and ligand binding data.

Computer fitting of binding data is discussed and it is concluded that the main problem is the choice of starting estimates and internal scaling parameters, not the optimization software. Solving linear overdetermined systems of equations for starting estimates is investigated. A function, Q, is introduced to study model discrimination with binding isotherms and the behaviour of Q as a function of model parameters is calculated for the case of 2 and 3 sites. The power function of the F test is estimated for models with 2 to 5 binding sites and necessary constraints on parameters for correct model discrimination are given. The sampling distribution of F test statistics is compared to an exact F distribution using the Chi-squared and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests. For low order modes (n less than 3) the F test statistics are approximately F distributed but for higher order models the test statistics are skewed to the left of the F distribution. The parameter covariance matrix obtained by inverting the Hessian matrix of the objective function is shown to be a good approximation to the estimate obtained by Monte Carlo sampling for low order models (n less than 3). It is concluded that analysis of up to 2 or 3 binding sites presents few problems and linear, normal statistical results are valid. To identify correctly 4 sites is much more difficult, requiring very precise data and extreme parameter values. Discrimination of 5 from 4 sites is an upper limit to the usefulness of the F test.

Binding Sites↗

Regression analysis for the sorption isotherms of basic dyes on sugarcane dust.

The sorption of three basic dyes, named basic violet 10, basic violet 1, and basic green 4, from aqueous solutions onto sugarcane dust was studied. The results revealed the potential of sugarcane dust, a waste material, to be a low-cost sorbent. Equilibrium isotherms were analyzed using the Langmuir, the Freundlich, and the three-parameter Redlich-Peterson isotherms. In order to determine the best-fit isotherm for each system, two error analysis methods were used to evaluate the data: the linear coefficient of determination and the Chi-square statistic test for determination of a non-linear model. Results indicated that the Chi-square test provided a better determination for the three sets of experimental data.

Absorption↗

Computer-assisted design of surface coils used in magnetic resonance imaging. II. Rotational discrimination nonlinear regression analysis and the design of surface coils.

For a number of reasons, it is desirable to fabricate coils which, for a known current, shall produce predetermined values of the magnetic field intensity at a number of points within a nuclear magnetic resonance imager. The calculation of the magnetic field intensity at a set of points involves the integration of the Biot-Savart equation for all components of the segments of conductor which make up the coil. This process in itself is a rather formidable task. When this process is parameterized in terms of coil diameter, coil spacing, etc. the problem is to determine the values of these parameters to match values of magnetic field intensities which are desired. The problem thereby increases in complexity to the point where, by ordinary methods, the problem becomes intractable. A generalized solution technique has been developed on a digital computer to implement the rotational discrimination nonlinear regression techniques of Faris, Law and Letcher to find the best solution to this problem. The problem is posed by integrating the Biot-Savart equation. This produces algebraic expressions for incorporation into the optimization program which is executed on a computer in a conversational mode. This technique was employed to specify the dimensions of a rectangular surface coil for the investigation of the whole human spine.

Equipment Design↗

Alcohol consumption and community hospital admissions in the United States: a dynamic regression analysis, 1950-1992.

The annual time-series analysis examines the impact of changes in per capita alcohol consumption (NIAAA,AEDS) on changes in community hospital admission rates (AHA) in the United States from 1950 to 1992 (n = 43). Increases in per capita alcohol consumption were expected to increase hospital admission rates contemporaneously and several years thereafter following an exponential risk function. Distributed lag models based on differenced data controlling for changes in: (1) per capita cigarette consumption; (2) private hospital insurance coverage; (3) the drinking age population; (4) per capita disposable personal income; and (5) health care regulatory interventions show a contemporaneous effect of per capita alcohol consumption on hospital admission rates. The time-series analyses imply that between 22-26% of US community hospital admissions are alcohol related. A comparable analysis indicates that per capita alcohol and tobacco expenditures contribute to approximately 28% of US community hospital admissions. The absence of statistically significant lagged effects is inconsistent with an exponentially declining risk functions. However, the contemporaneous effects of per capita alcohol and tobacco consumption suggest that a reduction in smoking and drinking will produce quick reductions in morbidity and hospitalizations.

Alcohol Drinking↗

Cerebrospinal fluid corticotropin-releasing factor (CRF) and vasopressin concentrations predict pituitary response in the CRF stimulation test: a multiple regression analysis.

There is considerable evidence that stress-related psychiatric disorders, including depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), are associated with hypersecretion of corticotropin-releasing factor (CRF) within the central nervous system (CNS). One line of evidence that is consistent with central CRF hypersecretion in these disorders is the blunted adrenocorticotropin hormone (ACTH) response to intravenous CRF administration, likely a consequence, at least in part, of downregulation of anterior pituitary CRF receptors. The present study tests the hypothesis that elevated cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) concentrations of CRF and a secondary ACTH secretagogue, arginine vasopressin (AVP), are associated with diminished adenohypophyseal responses in a standard CRF stimulation test. CSF concentrations of CRF and AVP, and plasma ACTH responses to the administration of 1 microg/kg ovine CRF (oCRF) were measured in healthy adult women with and without current major depression and/or a history of significant childhood abuse. The primary outcome measure was ACTH area under the curve (AUC) in the CRF stimulation test. Multiple linear regression was performed to identify the impact of CSF CRF and AVP concentrations upon the pituitary response to CRF stimulation. The regression model explained 56.5% of the variation in the ACTH response to CRF stimulation. The relationship of CSF concentrations of CRF to ACTH responses to CRF were best described by a third-order function that was inversely correlated over most of the range of studied values. The association of ACTH response with CSF concentration of AVP and the dose of oCRF followed second-order kinetics. These findings support the hypothesis that central CRF hypersecretion is associated with a blunted ACTH response to exogenously administered CRF, explaining almost 60% of the variation in the ACTH response to CRF.

Adrenocorticotropic Hormone↗

The perils of adding up: a cautionary tale about modeling and regression analysis.

To turn incomplete or imperfectly reliable information into estimates useful for policy, some modeling is often necessary or helpful. It does not follow that every statistical relation constitutes a model. There has to be an underlying theory, and the numerical estimates must respect any definitional or accounting identities that constrain the results. Ad hoc relations that do not meet these criteria can lead to uninterpretable or meaningless values, especially when different partial values, separately estimated, are added together. The imputed values of "responsiveness" in the WHO World Health Report 2000 illustrate this danger.

Global Health↗

Comparative regression analysis of concurrent elimination-phase blood and breath alcohol concentration measurements to determine hourly degradation rates.

Following the introduction of limit values for blood alcohol and breath alcohol concentrations of 0.5 g/kg and 0.25 mg/L, respectively, as provided under s. 24 a of the German Road Traffic Act the question is whether also breath alcohol concentrations can be back calculated to the time of the traffic offence in cases where it is definite that the person to be examined is in the period of alcohol elimination. To this end, a study was performed in which 56 healthy volunteers consumed 0.5, 0.8 and 1.0 g of ethanol mixed with fruit juice per kilogram of body weight over a period of 10-20 min. Calculations included all 391 pairs of concurrent blood alcohol and breath alcohol concentration values obtained after 2 h following the end of drinking. All volunteers exceeded the peak value of the alcohol curve. The measured values included were above 0.1 g/kg and 0.05 mg/L. For an average intake of alcohol of 0.88 g/kg the following regression lines were calculated for the period starting 2 h after the end of drinking: blood alcohol concentration [g/kg] = 1.318 - 0.172 h and breath alcohol concentration [mg/L] = 0.589 - 0.079 h. Subtracting the simple standard deviation from the mean value yielded hourly degradation rates above 0.1 g/kg and above 0.05 mg/L, respectively. Subtracting two standard deviations, the values fell below this level in both cases. In fact, back calculation of breath alcohol concentrations based on 0.05 mg/h seems to be possible for traffic offences if certain conditions are complied with, such as the use of Evidential 7110, a calibrated breath alcohol analyser approved by the Federal Physical-Technical Laboratory for measuring the breath alcohol concentration.

Adult↗