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PubMed2005

Incidence and predictors of falls in the chinese elderly.

INTRODUCTION: This is the first prospective longitudinal study carried out in a Chinese elderly population with the objective of identifying the incidence and predictors of falls. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This is a population-based cohort study in Hong Kong with 1517 ambulatory elderly Chinese recruited using a multi-stage sampling method. Baseline data on demographic, comorbid diseases, drugs, Activities of Daily Living (ADL) [Barthel Index and Lawton's Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL)], Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15), cognitive assessment by the Abbreviated Mental Test (AMT), fear of falling, self-perceived mobility problem, hand grip strength, lower limb power, balance and gait tests were performed. Every subject was followed up for 1 year. RESULTS: Four hundred and one falls occurred in 294 fallers (19.3%) over 1 year of follow-up. The prevalence of falls and recurrent falls were 19.3% and 4.75%, respectively. The incidences of falls (i.e., the fall events) were 220, 324 and 270 per 1000 person-years for men, women and both gender, respectively. The independent predictors of falls were previous history of falls, advancing age, Parkinson's disease, knee extension power and gait speed. The independent predictors of recurrent falls were previous history of falls, self-perceived mobility problem, the knee extension strength and the Total Mobility Score of the Tinetti Balance and Gait Evaluation. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of falls in the Chinese elderly was 270 per 1000 person-years. History of falls, old age, Parkinson's disease, decreased lower limb power and impairment in balance and gait function were important independent predictors of falls or recurrent falls in the Chinese elderly. Effective fall prevention programmes targeted at improving these risk factors for falls should be developed for the Chinese elderly in Hong Kong and Asia.

Accidental Falls↗

PubMed1992

Predictors of cardiac rehabilitation participation in older coronary patients.

BACKGROUND: While older coronary patients have a lower exercise capacity than younger coronary patients and have been demonstrated to improve exercise capacity to a degree similar to younger coronary patients, they are less likely to be referred to an outpatient cardiac rehabilitation program. The goal of this study was to determine demographic, medical, and psychosocial predictors of outpatient cardiac rehabilitation participation in hospitalized older post--coronary event patients. METHODS: An in-hospital-guided interview was performed by the clinical research nurse of the cardiac rehabilitation program with 226 hospitalized patients, aged 62 years and older, who had recently suffered a myocardial infarction or coronary bypass surgery. Demographic, medical, and psychosocial data were analyzed. RESULTS: Overall cardiac rehabilitation participation rate in a population with a mean age of 70.4 +/- 6 years (range, 62 to 92 years) was 21%. By multivariate analysis, the strength of the primary physician's recommendation for participation was the most powerful predictor of cardiac rehabilitation entry. Also, significant predictors of participation included commute time, patient "denial" of severity of illness, and history of depression. Medical factors such as cardiac diagnosis and left ventricular ejection fraction did not predict participation. CONCLUSIONS: Demographic, medical, and psychosocial data, collected in hospitalized post-coronary event patients are powerful predictors of subsequent participation in cardiac rehabilitation.

Age Factors↗

PubMed2005

Severity of joint pain and Kellgren-Lawrence grade at baseline are better predictors of joint space narrowing than bone scintigraphy in obese women with knee osteoarthritis.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of a baseline late-phase bone scan and assessments of the radiographic and symptomatic severity of knee osteoarthritis (OA) at baseline as predictors of loss of articular cartilage thickness, as reflected in joint space narrowing (JSN) in the medial tibiofemoral compartment. METHODS: Subjects (174 obese women, 45-64 yrs of age, with unilateral knee OA) were a subset of a larger cohort who participated in a placebo controlled trial of a disease modifying OA drug. Uptake of technetium medronate (99mTc-MDP) in anteroposterior (AP) and lateral views of a late-phase bone scan was measured at baseline in a region of interest drawn around the medial tibia, and was adjusted for (i.e., expressed as a ratio to) uptake in a reference segment of the tibial shaft, which served as an internal standard. Each subject underwent a fluoroscopically standardized radiographic examination of the knees (semiflexed AP view) and a pain assessment with the WOMAC OA Index at baseline, 16 months, and 30 months. RESULTS: Controlling for baseline joint space width and treatment group, multiple linear regression models showed that the adjusted 99mTc-MDP uptake at baseline was a significant predictor of joint space narrowing (JSN) in the index knee at 16 months (b = 0.180, p = 0.015) and 30 months (b = 0.221, p = 0.049). In the contralateral knee, uptake was only a marginally significant predictor of JSN at 30 months (b = 0.246, p = 0.083). Uptake in the upper and middle tertiles of the distribution predicted subjects who would exhibit JSN >/= 0.50 mm within 16 months with 65% sensitivity (PPV 23%) and 36% specificity (NPV 77%). In contrast, a prediction rule based solely on the presence of Kellgren-Lawrence grade 3 OA severity and greater than median WOMAC Pain score identified progressors with 65% sensitivity (PPV 48%) and 79% specificity (NPV 88%). CONCLUSION: Although the level of adjusted 99mTc-MDP uptake was significantly associated with JSN in knees with established radiographic OA, baseline bone scintigraphy is inferior to the radiographic severity of OA and knee pain (alone or in combination) as a predictor of loss of articular cartilage in subjects with knee OA.

Aged↗

PubMed2005

Predictors of fatality in neonates requiring mechanical ventilation.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate initial arterial blood gas, pulmonary pressures, pulmonary mechanics (compliance and resistance), pulmonary volumes, oxygenation indices and serum carotenoid levels as predictors of fatality in mechanically ventilated neonates. DESIGN: Cross Sectional. SETTING: Referral neonatal unit of a teaching hospital. SUBJECTS: 83 mechanically ventilated outborn neonates. METHODS: 83 neonates consecutively put on mechanical ventilator from March to December 2001 were enrolled in the study. The mechanical ventilator used was pressure limited time cycled ventilator with facility for online measurement of volumes and pulmonary mechanics. Arterial blood gas after half an hour of initiation of mechanical ventilation and initial pulmonary pressures, pulmonary compliance, resistance and duration of mechanical ventilation were recorded in a pre structured proforma. Initial serum carotenoid levels were also measured using spectrophotometric method. The neonates were regularly followed up for outcome. Multiple logistic regression analysis was done to find out the predictors of fatality for those variables that were significantly associated with outcome on univariate analysis. RESULTS: On univariate analysis weight ( < 2000 g), gestational age <34 weeks, pH <7.3, duration of mechanical ventilation <72 hours, a/A <0.25, compliance <1 mL/cmH2O, fraction of inspired oxygen (FiO2) >60%, oxygenation index >10, AaDO2 >250 and serum carotenoid levels < 100 microg/dL were significantly associated with fatality in neonates requiring mechanical ventilation. However, on multiple regression analysis only FiO2, gestational age and serum carotenoids < 100 microg/dL were found to be independent predictors of fatality. CONCLUSIONS: Initial FiO2 > 60%, gestational age <34 weeks and initial serum carotenoid levels < 100 microg/dL were independent predictors of fatality in neonatal mechanical ventilation. Even in a setting with high fatality rates, high risk of mortality in mechanically ventilated neonates can be identified.

Carotenoids↗

PubMed2005

Acute coronary syndrome and predictors of quality of life.

INTRODUCTION: Coronary disease in its various forms of presentation is associated with a reduction in the patients' own perception of their quality of life (QoL). QoL is an important measure of effectiveness of treatment; however, the predictors of QoL after admission for acute coronary syndrome (ACS) are not completely clear. AIM: To identify the clinical, demographic and psychosocial characteristics of patients admitted for ACS that were predictive of QoL in clinical follow-up. METHODS: Physical and mental QoL were prospectively evaluated in 278 patients admitted for ACS, using Short Form-36 v2 physical (PCS) and mental (MCS) component summary scales. Based on the median PCS (55) and MCS (56) scores, the population was divided into two groups. Depressive symptoms were assessed using the Beck Depression Inventory. RESULTS: The patients with a better QoL perception were male, young, smokers and had more than 12 years' education. A greater proportion of patients with PCS and MCS below the median score presented prior cardiovascular events and depressive symptoms. A worse physical QoL perception was more common in unmarried, hypertensive and diabetic patients. There was no association between clinical evolution or in-hospital complications and baseline QoL scores. Baseline PCS and MCS were 55 +/- 24 and 55 +/- 27 and at 16 months, 63 +/- 25 and 66 +/- 29. Clinical follow-up was achieved in 181 patients. A worse mental QoL perception at follow-up was related to female gender, baseline MCS < 56 and depressive symptoms. A PCS below median score at follow-up was more frequent in women and in patients with prior cardiovascular events, hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia and a lower level of education. Patients with better physical QoL at follow-up were smokers, presented higher baseline PCS and MCS, and had fewer depressive symptoms. Percutaneous myocardial revascularization was associated with a better physical QoL. In a logistic regression model the independent predictors of PCS were: gender, baseline PCS, level of education and prior cardiovascular events. Gender and depressive symptoms were independent predictors of MCS. CONCLUSIONS: In the study population, baseline clinical and psychosocial characteristics were the most important predictors of QoL after ACS. Depression was associated with worse mental QoL. In-hospital evolution and treatment did not appear to strongly affect patients' follow-up perceptions of QoL.

Age Factors↗

PubMed2005

Predictors of antibiotic prescription in respiratory tract infections by ambulatory care practitioners.

The use of antibiotics in viral respiratory infections (common cold, acute rhinosinusitis and acute bronchitis) promotes the emergence and spread of resistant bacteria. Studies have found that antibiotics are prescribed for 50-70% of respiratory tract infections, despite the fact that most of them have a viral etiology. The objective of the study was to determine predictors of antibiotic use in acute respiratory infections. It was conducted as a cross-sectional study on physicians' practices for antibiotic use. The subjects were internists and otolaryngologists of adult patients in an ambulatory setting in Buenos Aires. The instrument was a questionnaire with 20 clinical vignettes that included relevant variables for making decisions regarding antibiotic use in acute respiratory infections. The vignettes were constructed with a fractional factorial design with nine clinical variables. The absolute and relative weight of each clinical variable that predicted antibiotic use were calculated for each individual practitioner using multiple linear regression. The predictors with the greatest absolute weight in the decision to prescribe antibiotics were nasal discharge and cough (24% and 21% of total weight). The correlation between predictors and individual physician answers was high (r2 = 0.73). The mean probability and the rate of antibiotic prescription were both about 50%. Predictors of antibiotic use for acute respiratory infections among ambulatory physicians in this sample differ from internationally accepted guidelines. The likelihood of prescribing antibiotics for these illnesses is high. Wider implementation of management guidelines for acute respiratory infections could improve cost effective antibiotic use and decrease the development of antibiotic resistance.

Acute Disease↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Clinicopathologic predictors of incomplete excision after loop electrosurgical excision for cervical preneoplasia.

The aim of this study was to identify the factors affecting incomplete excision after the loop electrosurgical excision procedure (LEEP) for evaluation and treatment of cervical neoplasia. Patients with abnormal cervical cytology who underwent colposcopy and LEEP at Chiang Mai University Hospital between October 2004 and July 2005, were retrospectively evaluated. During the study period, 201 patients were eligible for analysis. All cone margin involvement was observed in 44% of the patients (95% CI, 37.3-51.4). Multivariate analysis revealed that invasive cancer on cytology (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] =3.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] =1.03 to 9.00; P=0.02), invasive cancer on LEEP histopathology (aOR=9.73, 95%CI =3.95 to 23.9; P<0.001), and a cone length of less than 10 mm (aOR =1.95, 95%CI =1.04 to 3.66; P =0.03) were significant predictors for any cone margin involvement. For endocervical margin involvement, postmenopausal status and a cone length of less than 10 mm were significant predictors of incomplete excision. In contrast to endocervical margin involvement, postmenopausal status was significantly associated with a decreased risk of ectocervical margin involvement. Invasive cancer on histopathology was a significant predictor of both ecto- and endocervical margin involvement. In conclusion, invasive cancer either on cytology or LEEP specimens and a cone length of less than 10 mm are significant predictors of incomplete excision.

Adult↗

PubMed2006

[Physical and psychological predictors for the onset of certification of long-term care insurance among older adults living independently in a community a 40-month follow-up study].

OBJECTIVE: To ascertain predictors for the onset of different levels of certification of long-term care insurance among older adults living independently in a community. METHODS: Out of all residents aged 65 years and over living in Yoita town, Niigata prefecture, Japan (n = 1,673), 1,544 persons participated in the baseline interview survey in 2000 (response rate, 92.3%). Among these participants, 1,229 persons (79.6% of responders) were ranked as level 1, based on the hierarchical mobility level classification. They were followed up for the subsequent 3 years and 4 months to see whether they continued without certification of long-term care insurance or suffered onset of a "mild level", certified as levels "needing support" and 1 for long-term care insurance, or a "severe level" as 2-5. The Cox proportional hazards model with a stepwise method was used to identify the most parsimonious combination of predictors for each type of long-term care insurance certification. RESULTS: Of those who were followed up, 1,151 persons showed no disability in basic activities of daily living (ADL) at baseline nor died before application for long-term care during the follow-up and thus served for analysis. 1,055 persons (91.7%) remained as "no event", but 49 (4.3%) and 47 persons (4.1%) had onset of the "mild level" and the "severe level" during the follow-up, respectively. The final model for prediction of the "mild level" in both genders included advanced age and poor walking ability (hazard ratio (HR) for either unable or with difficulty: 7.22[95% CI, 1.56-33.52] in males and both unable and with difficulty: 3.28[95% CI, 1.28-8.42] in females). The final model for prediction of the "severe level" in both genders included advanced age and poor instrumental ADL (HR for < or = 4 marks: 3.74[95% CI, 1.59-8.76] in males and 3.90[95% CI, 1.32-11.54] in females). Severe cognitive decline was a predictor only for the "severe level" in males. A history of hospitalization during past 1 year and poor chewing ability were predictive only for the "mild level" in females. CONCLUSIONS: Among older adults living independently in a community, most predictors for subsequent onset of mild level-certification of long-term care insurance, except for advanced age, may be controlled by preventive strategies. Evaluating effectiveness of programs for this purpose warrants further study.

Activities of Daily Living↗

PubMed2006

Can carotid stenting registries help in determining predictors of neurological outcome?

AIM: Carotid stenting (CS) has proved to be a safe alternative to carotid endarterectomy, and subsets of patients who may benefit from carotid stents rather than surgery still need to be defined. Randomized trials and individual series are looking at predicting factors of early outcome after carotid angioplasty and stenting (CAS) that can hardly be applied to all series. We analyzed early results of the Eurocast registry and discussed the potential role of multicentric registries in determining such outcome predictors. METHODS: The Eurocast registry is an online prospective registry on CAS that collected 897 procedures from February 2000 to December 2005 across 20 centers. Statistical analyses were performed with the univariate Fisher's exact test on CS procedures, excluding sole balloon angioplasty. Risk factors reported were hypertension, hyperlipidemia, past or current history of smoking, diabetes mellitus, obesity, cardiac disease, other vascular disease, pulmonary disease, hostile neck and renal failure. Half of patients (50.2%) had symptomatic carotid lesions. Local anesthesia (91.8%) and retrograde femoral access (95.6%) were the preferred method. Overall procedures were achieved in 98.2%, of which 84.5% were performed under cerebral protection. RESULTS: Intraoperative neurological complications occurred in 26 (3.1%) of 824 procedures achieved. No immediate deaths were reported. The intraoperative ipsilateral stroke/death rate was 1.7%. The overall in-hospital stroke/death rate was 3.5%. Significant predictors of early neurological complications were infarctions on preoperative cerebral CT scanning, a deficient circle of Willis, a too short preoperative length of medication (7 days or less), any additional intervention (stenting and/or balloon dilatation), bradycardia and hypotension. Less reliable predictors were: age >70 years, renal failure, preoperative speech or motor deficit, postradiation stenosis, lesion on the left carotid axis and lesion on the common carotid artery. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis confirmed that CS is a feasible and secure technique to treat carotid stenosis. However, the determination of neurological outcome predictors remains subject to further confirmation. Other patient subgroups identified in other studies (female sex, diabetics, coronary disease) should be investigated more precisely. Finally, the Eurocast analysis showed that the setting up of risk scores would be dependent on local practices, physicians' experience and would not be reproducible.

Adult↗

PubMed2006

Predictors of methotrexate treatment failure in ectopic pregnancy.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the possible predictors of methotrexate treatment failure in ectopic pregnancy. STUDY DESIGN: Fifty-eight patients diagnosed with ectopic pregnancy were treated with methotrexate (50 mg/m2). Selected variables in the history of the patients, the signs and symptoms at the time of admission, transvaginal ultrasound findings and serum beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (beta-hCG) levels on day 1 and 3 were evaluated in a logistic regression model to predict treatmentfailure, defined as tubal rupture. RESULTS: Methotrexate treatment failed in 9 cases (15.5 %). Another 9 cases (15.5%) required a second dose of methotrexate, and no treatment failures were observed in these cases. The presence of subchorionic tubal hematoma in the ectopic gestation (OR = 22.9, CI = 2.7-194.7, p = 0.004), the presence of an embryo (OR = 24, CI = 2.1-269, p = 0.01) and day 1 serum beta-hCG level > or = 3,000 mIU/mL (OR = 27.1, CI = 2.1-342.5, p = 0.01) were the main predictors of treatment failure. Follow-up serum beta-hCG levels > or =3,500 mIU/mL (OR = 42.9, CI = 4.3-421) on day 3 were significant predictors of treatment failure. Follow-up risk score was calculated as > 4 on day 3 by adding day 3 serum beta-hCG level to the admission score. Only 1 treatment failure (2.4%) occurred in 42 patients with an admission score of nil. No treatment failure occurred in 39 patients whose follow-up score was nil. The increase in admission risk (OR = 32.1, CI = 3.8-270, p = 0.001) and follow-up risk (OR = 9.2, CI = 2.4-35.2) were significant predictors of treatment failure. CONCLUSION: Transvaginal ultrasound findings are as important as serum beta-hCG level on the first day of methotrexate treatment. In unruptured cases, day 3 serum beta-hCG level is important to reevaluate the decision to continuefollow-up or perform early surgery for increased risk of treatment failure.

Abortifacient Agents, Nonsteroidal↗

PubMed2006

[Predictors of abstinence from smoking among participants in a smoking cessation program in a health center in Japan].

PURPOSE: To identify predictors of successful smoking abstinence. METHOD: A prospective analysis was conducted of a group of 687 individuals (mean age +/- SD 49.5 +/- 14.6 years, range 20 to 81 years) comprising 518 males and 169 females, who attempted to stop smoking by participating in smoking cessation programs provided by Kamakura Health Center in Japan from September 2002 to September 2003. They were provided with free nicotine patches and referred to medical clinics for follow-up. Baseline characteristics such as age, gender, program settings, daily cigarette consumption and time to the first cigarette of the day were recorded at the start of the program. Smoking status was confirmed at the one-year follow up. In addition, the participants were asked whether they had used free nicotine patches or follow-up nicotine patches and gum. The relationships between characteristics used to assess smoking abstinence rates were first analyzed using a chi2 test. Logistic regression analysis was then employed to identify independent predictors of smoking abstinence at the one-year follow up. RESULTS: A total of 687 smokers who participated in the program were registered at the start of this study. Out of these, 528 (76.9%) were eligible because their smoking status could be confirmed at the one-year follow up. The rate of smoking abstinence at the one-year follow up was 39.2%. No significant differences were observed in the rates of smoking abstinence among the participants at the one-year follow up based on gender, daily cigarette consumption or time to the first cigarette of the day. When participants were over fifty years of age (abstinence rate 47.0%), were provided with the program conducted at the Health Center (abstinence rate 50.3%), used free nicotine patches (abstinence rate 50.7%) and received follow-up nicotine replacement therapy (abstinence rate 57.7%). they were significantly more likely to have stopped smoking than the reference groups. With the above-mentioned four predictors, adjusted odds ratios of smoking abstinence observed in the logistic regression analysis were 1.68, 1.80, 2.01 and 1.79, respectively. CONCLUSION: We found a 39.2% smoking abstinence rate at one-year follow up among smokers who were treated with free nicotine patches in the smoking cessation program by the Kamakura Health Center. It was indicated that predictors of smoking abstinence are age (over fifty years), location (at the Health Center), use of free nicotine patches and receipt of follow-up nicotine replacement therapy.

Adult↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Small size ductal carcinoma in situ of the breast: predictors of positive margins after local excision.

One of the most important predictors of local recurrence after local excision of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is margin status. The aim was to study the association between margin status and clinical, radiological, and pathological characteristics and to determine predictors of positive margins after local excision of small size (< or = 4 cm) DCIS. Data were tested for differences regarding margin status, and logistic regression was used to determine predictors of margin status. The population consisted of 105 cases. Overall, 51 cases (49%) had free margins and 54 cases (51%) had positive margins. Positive margins were more often associated with a mean mammographic tumor size of 2.1 cm (P = 0.044) and absence of fine granular calcifications (P = 0.004). Also, high-grade (P = 0.013) and a mean pathological size of 3.2 cm (P < 0.001) were associated with positive margins. The only independent predictor of margin status was pathological grade (P = 0.010).

Breast Neoplasms↗

PubMed2006

SARS in Singapore--predictors of disease severity.

INTRODUCTION: Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) affected 8096 individuals in 29 countries, with 774 deaths. In Singapore, there were 238 cases of SARS with 33 deaths. A retrospective analysis was performed to identify predictors of poor outcome in patients with SARS locally. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Clinical, laboratory and outcome data of 234 patients admitted to Tan Tock Seng Hospital and Singapore General Hospital were collected and analysed. Only data collected at the time of admission were used in the analysis for predictors of poor outcome. Adverse events were defined as admission to the intensive care unit or death. RESULTS: Clinical (temperature, FiO2) and laboratory [leukocyte, lymphocyte, neutrophil, platelet, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), albumin] trends in groups with and without an adversarial event were presented. Fifty patients experienced an adverse event. On univariate analysis, male gender, advanced age, presence of comorbidities, neutrophilia, lymphopaenia, hyponatraemia, hypoalbuminaemia, transaminitis and elevated LDH or C-reactive protein were found to be significant predictors. On multivariate analysis, predictors of poor outcome were increased age [odds ratio (OR) 1.73 for every 10-year increase; 95% CI, 1.35 to 2.21], neutrophilia (OR 1.06 for every 1 x 10(9)/L increase; 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.11) and high LDH (OR 1.17 for every 100 U/L increase; 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.34). None of the 12 paediatric patients had an adverse event. CONCLUSION: Advanced age, neutrophilia and high LDH predict poor outcomes in patients with SARS.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2006

Predictors of failed closure of patent ductus arteriosus with indomethacin.

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to determine predictors of failed closure of patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) following a single course of indomethacin in symptomatic preterm infants. METHODS: This prospective observational study was carried out on 60 preterm infants weighing less than 1,750 g with symptomatic PDA confirmed by echocardiography. At a median age of 7.0 days (interquartile range 4.0), they were given indomethacin of 0.1 mg/kg/day intravenously daily for six days. Closure of PDA was reassessed by echocardiography upon completion of therapy. RESULTS: The PDA of 40 percent (n=24) of these infants remained patent. Forward logistic regression analysis showed that the only significant predictors of failed PDA closure in these infants were: PDA size (adjusted odds-ratio [OR] is 7.0; 95 percent confidence interval [CI] of OR is 2.0, 24.8; p-value is 0.002), birth weight (adjusted OR is 0.996; 95 percent CI of OR is 0.993, 1.000; p-value is 0.03) and platelet count (adjusted OR is 0.987; 95 percent CI is 0.975, 1.000; p-value is 0.045). Gestational age, maternal age and left atrium/aorta ratios were not significant predictors. CONCLUSION: Larger PDA, lower birth weight and lower platelet count were significant predictors of high failure in indomethacin therapy given late at one week of life.

Cyclooxygenase Inhibitors↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Prevalence, severity and predictors of HOMA-estimated insulin resistance in diabetic and nondiabetic patients with end-stage renal disease.

BACKGROUND: Prevalence of insulin resistance (IR) is increased in type 2 diabetes and in end-stage renal disease (ESRD). IR is associated with advanced atherosclerosis and is an independent predictor for cardiovascular disease in diabetes and ESRD patients. We investigated prevalence, severity, predictors and relation to vascular diseases by the homeostasis model assessment (HOMA-IR) in diabetic and nondiabetic ESRD patients. METHODS: ESRD patients with type 2 diabetes (n = 27) and nondiabetic ESRD patients (n = 35) were included in the study. IR was assessed with the HOMA-IR using fasting glucose and insulin levels. Additionally, serum levels of C-peptide, HbA1c, triglycerides, cholesterol and C-reactive protein and blood pressure were assessed. RESULTS: Median HOMA-IR was significantly higher in the diabetic ESRD patients than in the nondiabetic ESRD patients (6.3 [range 0.7-61.7] vs. 2.4 [range 0.3-5.7]; p < 0.001). Systolic blood pressure and triglycerides were significantly higher in patients with higher HOMA-IR, whereas HDL cholesterol was significantly lower in those patients. Only nondiabetic patients with increased HOMA-IR had significantly higher C-peptide levels than those with lower HOMA-IR (14.9 + 5.7 vs. 9.0 + 4.3, p = 0.004). Vascular disease prevalence was significantly higher in diabetic patients with higher HOMA-IR than in those with lower HOMA-IR. CONCLUSIONS: Prevalence and severity of HOMA-IR was greater in diabetic ESRD patients than in those without diabetes. In diabetic patients low HDL cholesterol was the only predictor for higher HOMA-IR, whereas in nondiabetic patients a high C-peptide level was the only predictor for higher HOMA-IR. The prevalence of vascular diseases is associated with higher HOMA-IR in ESRD patients.

Aged↗

PubMed2006

Prevalence, incidence, predictors and outcome of type 2 diabetes in Turkey.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate prospectively the incidence, certain predictors and outcomes of type 2 diabetes (DM), as well as to determine its prevalence cross-sectionally, in a representative sample of Turkish men and women. METHODS: Prospective evaluation of 3401 male and female participants (aged 48.2 +/-12 years). Follow-up constituted 19,050 person-years. Individuals with DM were diagnosed with criteria of the American Diabetes Association. Fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD) was identified by clinical findings and Minnesota coding of resting electrocardiograms. Cut-points of > or = 95 cm in males and > or = 91 cm in females were selected for abdominal obesity. For prospective evaluations, cases with DM or CHD were excluded. RESULTS: Prevalence of DM in Turkish adults was estimated as 2.89 million (11.0% of the population aged > or = 35 years). Over a mean follow-up of 5.9 years, incident DM developed in 223 subjects, yielding an incidence per 1000 person-years of 11.0 in women and 12.4 in men. This corresponded to a 300,000 annual incidence. Following risk parameter levels but not HDL-cholesterol were significantly elevated at baseline in subjects developing DM compared to those without: age (5 years), waist girth (7 cm), blood pressure (12/6 mmHg), apolipoprotein B (7 mg/dl), total cholesterol (14 mg/dl), and fasting triglycerides (only in women, 52 mg/dl). Abdominal obesity (RR 2.61 [95%CI 1.87; 3.63]) and age in both genders, hypertension (RR 1.81 [95%CI 1.10; 2.98]) and low HDL-cholesterol in men alone were significant independent predictors of DM. Diabetes mellitus was a significant and independent predictor of fatal and nonfatal CHD, with a RR of 1.81 (95%CI 1.19; 2.75), after adjustment for sex, age, hypertension, waist circumference, serum total cholesterol and smoking status. CONCLUSIONS: The annual incidence of DM in Turkey rises very rapidly, currently stands at 300,000, and, hence, its prevalence also rises correspondingly. Insulin resistance appears to be a weak determinant of DM in Turkish women while abdominal obesity is the main determinant. Multivariately adjusted DM is a significant independent predictor of fatal and nonfatal CHD. These observations emphasize that measures to reverse or stop the "epidemic" of abdominal obesity are severely required.

Adult↗

PubMed2006

[Predictors of dementia, the construction of classification trees].

In order to identify persons who are at risk for dementia in an early phase, two classification trees were developed. Data were used from the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam (LASA). The prevalence of dementia in the whole sample was 4.0%. In the first tree age seemed to be the strongest predictor, with an increased risk for persons older than 75. In this group the positive predictive value reached a maximum of 33.3% when the persons had memory complaints and a score on the Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) <24. In a second classification tree, age was excluded as a predictor because of high association with the other potential predictors. In this tree functional limitations seemed the strongest predictor. In the group of persons with at least one functional limitations, the positive predictive value reached a maximum of 28.8% when the persons had memory complaints and a score <24 on the MMSE. In persons without memory complaints, persons with cardiovascular diseases or diabetes were at increased risk of dementia. Further research is necessary before these classification trees can be implemented in general health care.

Age Factors↗

PubMed1999

Cognitive predictors of self-management behavior of asthmatic children and their families in Alexandria.

The aim of this work was to study self-management behavior (SMB) of asthmatic children and their parents, its cognitive predictors as well as its effect on the child stress and health care utilization. Data was collected by interviewing 500 asthmatic children aged 9-18 years and 500 of their parents. The study revealed that very low percentage of the respondents had good asthma management behavior. The most frequent behaviors were taking medication, going to doctor and avoiding asthma triggers. The least practiced behaviors were breathing exercises and bronchial hygiene practices. The main predictor for children's SMB which constituted 36.3% of its variance was parental management behavior. Most of the studied cognitive factors were proved as predictors for children's SMB including knowledge, self-efficacy, health locus of control, perceived seriousness and barriers. Socioeconomic status was the main predictor of parental SMB, together with knowledge, powerful others health locus of control, health value, perceived barriers and father's education shared by 46.4% in explanation of its variance. Child knowledge, parental SMB, and socioeconomic status were significantly predicting health care utilization and level of child stress. A need was highlighted for initiation an asthma management educational program to families of asthmatic children.

Adaptation, Psychological↗