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At least 883 records · Page 49Linked to original sources
PubMed1978

Anticipation versus results: an approach to improved program forecasting.

Health planners may be an integral part of the decision-making process when new programs are designed and legislation and regulations are drafted. The appropriateness of the resultant program design will depend on the quality of the guidance provided by the planners. In many cases, this guidance is primarily determined by the philosophical beliefs, subjective system insights, and communication skills of the individual--supported by a little data. Pressures of the moment and limitations in existing impact prediction techniques may restrict the use of more systematic methods of planning. This historical approach has produced numerous planning failures, when success is measured by comparing anticipated and actual outcomes. Planned changes have often been accompanied by significant, unpredicted side effects that reduce the political credibility of decision-makers and produce programs that are criticized by the public that they are intended to serve. Thus, the need seems to exist for new approaches to the analysis of the potential impact of program changes. Planning, decision-making and implementation processes for health programs should be studied in order to enable planners to provide improved guidance to decision-makers. One conceptual approach to the performance of such studies is explored here.

Forecasting↗
PubMed1989

AIDS forecast updated.

Explore the source record for details and available documents.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed1999

The role of education in explaining and forecasting trends in functional limitations among older Americans.

Using the Survey of Income and Program Participation, we document the importance of education in accounting for declines in functional limitations among older Americans from 1984 to 1993. Of the eight demographic and socioeconomic variables considered, education is most important in accounting for recent trends. The relationship between educational attainment and functioning has not changed measurably, but educational attainment has increased greatly during this period. Our analysis suggests, all else being equal, that future changes in education will continue to contribute to improvements in functioning, although at a reduced rate.

Activities of Daily Living↗
PubMed1999

Forecasting and prevention of epidemic malaria: new perspectives on an old problem.

There is a clear need for improved epidemic malaria surveillance mechanisms in areas prone to the disease. Epidemiological surveillance systems are rarely able to provide information in a sufficiently timely manner for adequate epidemic response. This is especially true in African countries where surveillance is poorly developed, and particularly so in remote regions of unstable malaria such as desert fringes. There is long standing evidence linking climatic variability and epidemic risk. The last ten years have seen significant developments in Environmental Information System (EIS) for a range of natural resource management purposes. The routine information products from these systems have been shown to be both spatially and temporally related to malaria transmission indicators across the African continent. EIS may therefore provide a useful and cost effective input to epidemic malaria control planning and response.

Animals↗