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Evaluating the quality of anonymous record linkage using deterministic procedures with the New York State AIDS registry and a hospital discharge file.

Linkage of same-person records across multiple databases relies on high-quality, uniformly available identifying information. These data quality issues become increasingly important when personal names are not available for record linkage. Using deterministic decision criteria, we linked records from two population-based files in the absence of personal names. The sensitivity of anonymous record linkage procedures ranged from 32 to 85 per cent for the two years studied, and the positive predictive value (PPV) ranged from 14 to 99 per cent. Decreasing sensitivity and PPV were primarily attributed to (1) errors in computerized identifying information and (2) the deterministic decision criteria specified for record linkage. An evaluation of the contribution of personal names to the quality of record linkage found no measurable impact.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome

Economic value of caregiver effort in maintaining long-term ventilator-assisted individuals at home.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the economic value of caregivers' efforts in maintaining ventilator-assisted individuals at home. DESIGN: Nonexperimental, cross-sectional survey. SETTING: Households of home-based ventilator-assisted individuals residing in 37 states. PARTICIPANTS: Caregivers of 1404 ventilator-assisted individuals; 277 (19.7%) responses were received. OUTCOME MEASURES: The Home Ventilator Care Cost and Utilization Survey and the Modified Katz Index. METHODS: The economic value of caregiver effort was estimated deterministically by opportunity cost, aggregated market value, and aggregated replacement cost and estimated stochastically by ordinary least squares regression. Cost of formal home care services was estimated with the Medicare Schedule of Limits for Home Health Agency Costs. Estimates of total cost of home care for each method of valuing caregiver effort were calculated by summing the cost of formal home care services with the value of caregiver effort. RESULTS: The average monthly cost of formal home care services was estimated to be $6411 (SD, $8490; median, $2006; range, $0 to $38,607). After adding various values of caregiver effort to the cost of formal home care services, the average cost of home care increases by $960 to $12,483, depending on the method used to calculate the value of the caregiver's time; the median total cost of home care increased by $1403 to $17,793. Data also showed that, depending on the figure used to estimate the cost of long-term care and which method was used to calculate caregiver value, home care was more expensive for at least 4.6% of ventilator-assisted individuals and for as many as 36.7%. CONCLUSIONS: The incorporation of the caregiver's time value into cost estimates did not substantially reduce the proportion of patients for whom home care was the least expensive alternative, except when caregiver effort was valued at a registered nurse's wage rate. However, the methods used to place an economic value on caregiver effort did not take into consideration the long-term economic impact on caregivers who reduce their work hours or forego employment or educational opportunities, nor did they take into account the lost wages of the ventilator-assisted individual or the extent to which the caregiver was financially dependent on the ventilator-assisted individual.

Adult

Parathyroid hormone secretion and serum calcium concentration--a deterministic view of its regulation.

In seven normal men we investigated the basal secretion of PTH by blood sampling in 30 sec intervals for estimation of intact PTH and at 2-min intervals for measurement of ionized calcium. In 4 of these subjects we also investigated the PTH-secretion under conditions of intermittent hypercalcemia and hypocalcemia. Our measurements demonstrate the existence of three time scales in the secretion of PTH, viz. short-term pulses (faster than 2 min), an intermediate pattern of adjusting PTH levels to changed Ca2+ averages, and finally a long-term coupling between PTH and Ca2+ averages after 20 min. Ionized calcium controls the long-term regulation and intermediate adaptation mechanisms, but the short-term fluctuations seem to be due to spontaneous secretion.

Adult

Nutrient flows in agriculture in The Netherlands with special emphasis on pig production.

Annual nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K) flows in agriculture in The Netherlands were identified and quantified in 1990, with special emphasis on pig production. Also, the effects that various management strategies in pig production have on NPK emission in 1990 were compared using a static deterministic simulation model. Ammonia emission from pig production in 1990 (60.9 Gg N) exceeded the defined target for the year 2000 (12.7 Gg N). Measures that affect volatilization of ammonia directly (i.e., introduction of low-emission stables, manure storage facilities, or manure application techniques) reduced ammonia emission most effectively. These measures, however, should be combined with a reduction in application of artificial N fertilizer to avoid an increase in N losses through leaching, run-off, or denitrification. Targets for ammonia emission in the year 2010 require a reduction in the pig population of 24 to 62%, in addition to implications of measures described in this article. National NPK losses in 1990 through leaching, run-off, or denitrification, predicted at 223.5 kg/ha for N, 32.7 kg/ha for P, and 67 kg/ha for K, exceeded government targets for the year 2010 (185 kg N/ha; 8.7 kg P/ha; norm not set for K). Reducing application of artificial NPK fertilizer reduced national NPK losses most effectively. For P, use of phytase and feeding pigs in accordance with their P requirements is required, in addition to limited use of artificial P fertilizer to meet targets for the year 2010. Hence, from an environmental point of view, pig production in The Netherlands is limited primarily by ammonia emission targets for the year 2010.

Ammonia

On the holistic approach in cellular and cancer biology: nonlinearity, complexity, and quasi-determinism of the dynamic cellular network.

A keystone of the molecular reductionist approach to cellular biology is a specific deductive strategy relating genotype to phenotype-two distinct categories. This relationship is based on the assumption that the intermediary cellular network of actively transcribed genes and their regulatory elements is deterministic (i.e., a link between expression of a gene and a phenotypic trait can always be identified, and evolution of the network in time is predetermined). However, experimental data suggest that the relationship between genotype and phenotype is nonbijective (i.e., a gene can contribute to the emergence of more than just one phenotypic trait or a phenotypic trait can be determined by expression of several genes). This implies nonlinearity (i.e., lack of the proportional relationship between input and the outcome), complexity (i.e. emergence of the hierarchical network of multiple cross-interacting elements that is sensitive to initial conditions, possesses multiple equilibria, organizes spontaneously into different morphological patterns, and is controlled in dispersed rather than centralized manner), and quasi-determinism (i.e., coexistence of deterministic and nondeterministic events) of the network. Nonlinearity within the space of the cellular molecular events underlies the existence of a fractal structure within a number of metabolic processes, and patterns of tissue growth, which is measured experimentally as a fractal dimension. Because of its complexity, the same phenotype can be associated with a number of alternative sequences of cellular events. Moreover, the primary cause initiating phenotypic evolution of cells such as malignant transformation can be favored probabilistically, but not identified unequivocally. Thermodynamic fluctuations of energy rather than gene mutations, the material traits of the fluctuations alter both the molecular and informational structure of the network. Then, the interplay between deterministic chaos, complexity, self-organization, and natural selection drives formation of malignant phenotype. This concept offers a novel perspective for investigation of tumorigenesis without invalidating current molecular findings. The essay integrates the ideas of the sciences of complexity in a biological context.

Genotype

Cytophotometric analysis of basic nuclear proteins during gametogenesis in the free-living nematode Panagrellus silusiae.

The cytochemical staining characteristics of basic nuclear proteins during gametogenesis in both sexes of the free-living nematode Panagrellus silusiae were monitored by absorption microspectrophotometry. During spermatogenesis, the levels of both of the nuclear-bound Sakaguchi and 1-fluoro-2, 4-dinitrobenzene (FDNB) reagents per Feulgen-DNA content increase prior to meiosis and subsequently drop off during spermiogenesis. During oogenesis, the amount of Sakaguchi-protein to DNA ratio rises slightly whereas the FDNB-protein to DNA ratio undergoes a meagre decline. Since the oocyte of Panagrellus accumulates DNA in excess of a 4C DNA equivalent, the relative constancy of the ratio of basic nuclear protein content to DNA amount during oogenesis signifies that these proteins are being continously produced during oocyte maturation. After treatment with alkaline fast green (pH 8.1) the cytoplasmic and nuclear regions of the gonocytes of both sexes yield such an intense reaction that microspectrophotometric measurements could not be taken. The basis of the cytoplasmic staining reaction to the fast green (pH 8.1) dye was not determined. The rapid, highly deterministic programme of embryogenesis in Panagrellus may require a substantial stockpiling of basic nuclear proteins during oogenesis.

Animals

Discriminating deterministic versus stochastic dynamics in neuronal activity.

An approach to discriminating deterministic versus stochastic dynamics from neuronal data is presented. Direct tests for determinism are emphasized, as well as using time series with clear physical correlates measured from small ensembles of neurons. Surrogate data are used to provide null hypotheses that the dynamics in our data could be accounted for by linear stochastic systems. Algorithms are given in full, and the analysis of an experimental example is given.

Algorithms

A survey of films for use as dosimeters in interventional radiology.

Analysis of radiation doses in interventional radiological procedures that can lead to deterministic radiation effects such as erythema and epilation would assist physicians in planning patients care after exposure and in reducing doses. Photographic films used to measure skin exposure in the past are too sensitive for the high doses involved in interventional procedures. Seventeen different types of films, many of which are generally available in hospitals, were surveyed to see if any would meet the demands of interventional radiology. Sensitometric curves obtained demonstrate that most films are inappropriate for high dose procedures. Using Kodak Fine Grain Positive and Dupont duplicating films and automatic processing, doses as high as 2.8 Gy could be measured with reasonable accuracy. Similar results can be obtained by manually processing Kodak XV-2 verification film at room temperature.

Automation

EEG dipole localization bounds and MAP algorithms for head models with parameter uncertainties.

The Cramer-Rao bound for unbiased dipole location estimation is derived under the assumption of a general head model parameterized by deterministic and stochastic parameters. The expression thus characterizes fundamental limits on EEG dipole localization performance due to the effects of both model uncertainty and statistical measurements noise. Expressions are derived for the cases of multivariate Gaussian and gamma distribution priors, and examples are given to illustrate the derived bounds when the radii and conductivities of a four-concentric sphere head model are allowed to be random. The joint MAP estimate of location/model parameters is then examined as a means of achieving robustness to deviations from an ideal head model. Random variations in both the multiple sphere radii and the layer conductivities are shown, via the stochastic Cramer-Rao bounds and Monte Carlo simulation of the MAP estimator, to have the most impact on localization performance in high SNR regions, where finite sample effects are not the limiting factors. This corresponds most often to spatial regions that are close to the scalp electrodes.

Algorithms

Dynamics of ongoing activity: explanation of the large variability in evoked cortical responses.

Evoked activity in the mammalian cortex and the resulting behavioral responses exhibit a large variability to repeated presentations of the same stimulus. This study examined whether the variability can be attributed to ongoing activity. Ongoing and evoked spatiotemporal activity patterns in the cat visual cortex were measured with real-time optical imaging; local field potentials and discharges of single neurons were recorded simultaneously, by electrophysiological techniques. The evoked activity appeared deterministic, and the variability resulted from the dynamics of ongoing activity, presumably reflecting the instantaneous state of cortical networks. In spite of the large variability, evoked responses in single trials could be predicted by linear summation of the deterministic response and the preceding ongoing activity. Ongoing activity must play an important role in cortical function and cannot be ignored in exploration of cognitive processes.

Animals

Can deterministic penalty terms model the effects of synaptic weight noise on network fault-tolerance?

This paper investigates fault tolerance in feedforward neural networks, for a realistic fault model based on analog hardware. In our previous work with synaptic weight noise we showed significant fault tolerance enhancement over standard training algorithms. We proposed that when introduced into training, weight noise distributes the network computation more evenly across the weights and thus enhances fault tolerance. Here we compare those results with an approximation to the mechanisms induced by stochastic weight noise, incorporated into training deterministically via penalty terms. The penalty terms are an approximation to weight saliency and therefore, in addition, we assess a number of other weight saliency measures and perform comparison experiments. The results show that the first term approximation is an incomplete model of weight noise in terms of fault tolerance. Also the error Hessian is shown to be the most accurate measure of weight saliency.

Neural Networks, Computer

Impact of diffuse nitrate pollution sources on groundwater quality--some examples from Czechoslovakia.

In several regions of Czechoslovakia with intensive agricultural production, the correlation between the amount of nitrogen fertilizer applied and the nitrate content in groundwater has been recognized. Nitrate pollution of groundwater is considered to be the most serious source of nonpoint pollution in Czechoslovakia. A program of research into the effects of farming activities on groundwater quality in Czechoslovakia is under way on experimental fields (20 to 30 hectares) and, simultaneously, in regions in which shallow, vulnerable aquifers occur. The importance of the soil organic matter's stability for maintaining the groundwater quality is emphasized. Research based on nitrogen and organic carbon balance has shown that the restoration of a soil-groundwater system is a complicated process that usually requires changes in the extent and intensity of agricultural activities and consistent attention to the effects produced by natural conditions. Regional investigation of the impact of farming on shallow aquifers in the fluvial deposits of the Elbe River in Bohemia has proved the hydrochemical instability and vertical hydrochemical heterogeneity of these aquifers. The WASTEN deterministic model was used for modeling the transport and transformation of various types of inorganic fertilizers. The input data is based on laboratory and field measurements. Special topics are the verification of model calculations and the time and spatial variability of input data with respect to the unsaturated zone. The research results are being used for making regional and national agro-groundwater managerial schemes more precise, as well as for decision-making.

Agriculture

Computerized electrocardiogram diagnosis: fuzzy approach.

This paper investigates the computerized analysis of electrocardiographic signals. The biological variability, the lack of standards in the definition of measurements and of diagnostic criteria make the classification problem a complex task. Two basic methods of the diagnostic process are described: the statistical model and the deterministic approach. In particular, a model for ECG classification will be illustrated where the imprecise knowledge of the state of cardiac system and the vague definition of the pathological classes are taken care of by means of the fuzzy set formalism.

Diagnosis, Computer-Assisted

The scalp distribution of the fractal dimension of the EEG and its variation with mental tasks.

The insights gained by the concept of deterministic chaos for the EEG is that this seemingly disordered process may be governed by relatively few simple laws which could be determined. One of the quantitative measures of a complex dynamical system is that of its dimension. The term 'dimension' refers to the ability of a space to contain a set of points. We estimated the correlational dimension of the EEG and compared the outcome to traditional Fourier analyses. In addition, we tested the hypothesis that the EEG can be described as filtered noise. Data from 15 electrode sites and 31 subjects are reported in the present study. We have utilized a variety of tasks that cut across sensory modalities including touch, vision, and imagery which reflect neuropsychological processes that differentially engage areas of the cortex in the first part of the study. In the second part, the differences between the perception of an object and the imagination of the same object were evaluated. The outcome shows variations between scalp sites for all measures and also variations between tasks in terms of dimensionality of the EEG. The hypothesis of a higher dimensionality ("complexity") of imagery compared to actual perceptual processing was confirmed. A statistical comparison between the maps generated by means of the various measures shows that different informations are extracted when using the different measures. There is also statistical evidence that the EEG cannot completely be described by the model of filtered noise.

Adult

Chaotic dynamics in autonomic nervous system activity of a patient during a psychotherapy session.

Chaos theory and nonlinear dynamical modeling have been applied successfully in a variety of scientific fields ranging from the physical sciences to population biology. More recently, investigators have modeled long-term psychological processes by applying this paradigm to subjective measures. Yet, mathematically rigorous dynamical modeling of transient psychodynamic processes remains uncharted. Human behaviors and intrapsychic processes often defy prediction, yet psychodynamic theory views these as fundamentally deterministic. We postulate that a nonlinear dynamical analysis of mental states and mental control processes may help reconcile the paradox that seemingly random mental states are thought ultimately to result from deterministic, rather than stochastic, psychological processes. As an initial empirical approach, we examined spontaneously occurring autonomic activity of a patient during 1 hr of psychotherapy and illustrate that cardiac responses associated with psychologically meaningful events possess nonlinear characteristics indicative of chaos. Such nonlinear analyses may shed light on fundamental issues of psychological functioning.

Adult

A statistical analysis of the ECG measurements used in computerized interpretation of acute anterior myocardial infarction with applications to interpretive criteria development.

Computerized interpretation of the electrocardiogram (ECG) for detection of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) has been an area of active investigation for the past few years. Advances in the development of criteria for increased accuracy have resulted through the use of clinically correlated databases. Previously, using such databases, the sensitivity for interpretation of AMI in the Marquette 12SL ECG analysis program has increased from 21% to 65% with specificity remaining unchanged (99%). This study attempted to find measurements of the QRS and ST-segment from 7 of the 12 standard ECG leads to increase the sensitivity of detection of anterior AMI to the level of a trained physician while maintaining the current level of specificity. Regression analyses were performed on the measurements to see which ones could improve sensitivity and what effect they had on specificity. There was no clear separation of the individual measurements between the normal database or the true positive and true negative anterior AMI databases for maintaining high specificity. In a parallel study of the same data, deterministic criteria combining both ST and T wave information increased the sensitivity of the 12SL analysis program for detection of anterior AMI to 71% on a clinically correlated anterior AMI database and 75% on a physician interpreted anterior AMI database while maintaining the specificity at 99%.

Adult

The reproducibility of forced expiratory wheezes.

Previous work has shown forced expiratory wheezes (FEW) to be associated with onset of flow limitation and to have spectral characteristics similar to wheezes heard in patients with obstructive lung diseases. This study was designed to determine whether the acoustic characteristics of FEW are reproducible under controlled lung volume and flow conditions. Six healthy, nonsmoking young adults 28 to 37 yr of age were studied. They performed FVC maneuvers through a set of round apertures (diameters, 14, 12, 10, 8, 6, 4, 2, and 1 mm). Flow, measured with a pneumotachograph, and tracheal lung sounds, recorded with a Hewlett-Packard HP20510A contact sensor, were recorded simultaneously on magnetic tape and analyzed off-line. For each subject, data from three different aperture sizes, measured in triplicates, were analyzed (total of 54 runs); 199 different wheezes were identified (mean, 3.7 wheezes/run), and 56.7 +/- 5.1% (mean +/- SEM) of wheezes found in a certain run (range, 41.7 to 77.8%) were identical to wheezes found in the other two runs of the same aperture size (i.e., same flow rate). In 17 of the 18 sets of triplicate runs analyzed, at least one major wheeze was identical in all three runs of the set. In three of the sets, two different identical wheezes were found. These findings support a deterministic mechanism of generation of wheezes and is in line with the predictions of the "flutter theory."

Adult

Cell orientation induced by extracellular signals.

Cells like fibroblasts and osteoblasts are oriented by different extracellular guiding signals like an electric field, a bent surface, and a periodically stretched surface. An automatic controller is responsible for the cell alignment. The controller contains both a deterministic and a stochastic signal. The following machine properties were determined: (1) The angle dependence of the cellular signal transformer is cos 2(psi 0 - psi). (2) The set point of the automatic controller is psi 0 = +/- 90 degrees. The cells like to orient their long axis perpendicular to the direction of the applied guiding signal. (3) The signal transformer measures the extracellular signal in a quadratic fashion. The cells cannot register the sign of the guiding field. (4) The stochastic signal in the automatic controller can be quantified by a characteristic time (approximately 130 min for fibroblasts). (5) The extracellular signal is registered in cell-made standards (ratio of the deterministic and stochastic signal equals one): 0.3 +/- 0.05 V/mm for human fibroblasts (electric field) and 85 +/- 3 microns for human fibroblasts and osteoblasts (cyclindrically bent surface). (6) The lag-time in the signal transduction system of fibroblasts is approximately 4 min.

Cell Polarity