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PubMed2006

Relationship between students' self-assessment of their capabilities and their teachers' judgments of students' capabilities in mathematics problem-solving.

The study examined the judgments made by four seventh-grade mathematics teachers of their 107 students' competence in solving mathematics problems. Simultaneously, the 107 students made self-efficacy judgments about their capability in solving mathematics problems. The two sets of judgments were tested for predicting students' mathematics performance. Also, students' prior mathematics achievement was studied for its influence on both teachers' and students' judgments and students' mathematics performance. Teachers were asked to make judgments of each student for every mathematics problem solved. Results were consistent with prior research indicating that students' mathematics self-efficacy beliefs were highly predictive of their performance. Path analysis indicated that the mathematics teachers' judgments were also highly predictive of students' performance and self-efficacy. In turn, these variables predicted students' postperformance judgments. Combining students' self-efficacy judgments and teachers' judgments of students increased predictiveness for students' mathematics performance. Educational implications were also discussed.

Achievement↗

PubMed1997

Context, feedback, and the calibration and resolution of confidence in perceptual judgments.

The effects of variations in the global task difficulty context on judgmental confidence and confidence calibration were investigated in two experiments requiring perceptual comparisons. In Experiment 1, target judgments of moderate difficulty were embedded in a larger set of more difficult (hard context) or less difficult (easy context) judgments. Decisional response time on the target items was longer in the hard context condition, but there was no effect of difficulty context on target judgment confidence, accuracy, over/underconfidence, calibration, or resolution. In Experiment 2, each subject was exposed to three levels of local judgment difficulty. The global contextual difficulty manipulation involved varying the frequency with which the hard and easy judgments appeared, and the presence or absence of trial-by-trial response feedback was manipulated between subjects. As in Experiment 1, contextual difficulty affected decisional response times but not mean confidence ratings or accuracy. However, we found that providing feedback on a globally difficult task makes calibration worse. Also, resolution (the ability to differentiate correct from incorrect judgments) was found to be superior for easy judgments in a difficult context and for difficult judgments in an easy context. We discuss the implication of these findings for research on confidence and confidence calibration.

Adult↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Diagnostic judgments of nurse practitioners providing primary gynecologic care: a quantitative analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the accuracy of experienced nurse practitioners' judgments of the probability of chlamydial infection of the cervix, to identify the clinical factors ("cues") related to the judgments, and to discern likely sources of judgment error. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study with prospective data collection. SETTING: Urban hospital-based clinic. PATIENTS: 492 nonpregnant women receiving primary gynecologic care. INTERVENTIONS: Four nurse practitioners recorded clinical data, tested women for chlamydial infection, and judged the probability of chlamydial infection using six categories: less than 1%, 1-4%, 5-9%, 10-24%, 25-50%, and greater than 50%. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Chlamydial infection was detected by immunofluorescent assay in 31 (6%) of the 492 women. Although the median probability judgment was 5-9%, judgments were only weakly related (p = 0.08) to actual rates of infection. In a multivariate analysis, eight clinical cues were independently (p less than 0.05) related to nurse practitioners' probability judgments: age less than 20 years; past chlamydial or gonococcal infection; new sex partner; partner with suspected genital infection; genito-urinary symptoms; cervicitis, purulent vaginal discharge; and malodorous vaginal discharge. A linear model based on the eight cues, weighted according to their regression coefficients, predicted chlamydial infection more accurately than did the nurse practitioners' actual judgments (ROC curve areas 0.69 vs. 0.58, respectively; p less than 0.05). However, only two of the eight cues (age less than 20 years and purulent vaginal discharge) were actually related to chlamydial infection in a second multivariate model; this model bad accuracy similar to that of an empirically derived prediction rule (ROC curve areas 0.77 and 0.80, p = 0.27). CONCLUSIONS: Nurse practitioners were often inaccurate in their diagnostic judgments. Our analyses suggest that this inaccuracy stemmed from both the inconsistent use of clinical cues and the use of cues that were not related to chlamydial infection. Therefore, interventions such as algorithms that promote consistency and accuracy in diagnostic use of relevant cues would be likely to improve their diagnostic judgments.

Adult↗

PubMed1984

Effects of social influences and waiting on time judgment.

Utilizing social judgment theory, the relationships of three social cues to time judgment under low physical temporal-cue conditions were explored. These social influences were as follows: being free to interact with another person, being told by the experimenter to expect to wait a specified period of time, and seeing another person's time judgment. 72 college students, randomly assigned to conditions of free social interaction (alone-interactive) and of waiting expectancy (expected-unexpected), made time estimates after 4 min., 7 sec. Each person under interactive conditions made another judgment after seeing a partner's judgment. Mean estimation was lower alone than under interactive conditions and lower under expected than unexpected waiting conditions. Under interactive conditions, correlations were positive between the individual's first and second judgments, between the partners' second judgments, and between the individual's second and the partner's first judgments. Social cues may influence time judgment.

Adult↗

PubMed1999

Interpreting the judgment of surgical faculty regarding resident competence.

BACKGROUND: It is reasonable to propose that competence is a multifaceted characteristic defined in part by some minimum level of knowledge and skill. In this study we examined the relationship between surgical faculty's judgment of clinical competence, as measured by a surgical resident objective structured clinical examination (OSCE), and the residents' objective performance on the skills being tested. METHODS: Fifty-six general surgery residents at all levels of training participated in a 30-station OSCE. At the completion of each station, the faculty proctor made several overall judgments regarding each resident's performance, including a global judgment of competent or not competent. The competence judgment was applied to the objective percentage performance score in three different ways to construct methods for determining competence based solely upon this objective percentage score. RESULTS: The average mean competent score (MCS) across the stations was 61%, and the average mean noncompetent score (MNCS) was 38%. The difference between MCS and MNCS for each station was very consistent. Upper threshold scores above which a judgment of competent was always made, and lower threshold scores below which a judgment of noncompetent was always made were observed. Overall, the average mean and threshold scores for competent and noncompetent groups were remarkably similar. For performance scores in the range between the threshold competent and noncompetent scores at each station, measures other than objective performance on the skills being evaluated determined the judgment of competent or not competent. CONCLUSIONS: Empirically determined minimum acceptable standards for objective performance in clinical skills and knowledge appeared to have been subconsciously applied to the competence judgment by the faculty evaluators in this study. Other factors appeared to have become determinate when the objective performance score fell within a range of uncertainty.

Animals↗

PubMed2005

Judging female figures: a new methodological approach to male attractiveness judgments of female waist-to-hip ratio.

The procedure in previous research on attractiveness judgments of female waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) presumably supported an elaborate, effortful and deliberate decision process. In contrast, motivated by evolutionary psychological considerations about the psychological mechanism underlying attractiveness judgments of female WHR, the present study differed from previous research inasmuch as: (a) the participants were uninformed in advance about the various female figures; (b) the exposure time of the female figures was very brief; (c) trials were presented in rapid succession; (d) the participants were instructed to judge spontaneously; (e) forced-choice preference judgments and their underlying judgment times were registered. The results confirmed previous research that men prefer a normal weight figure with a .7 WHR. Additionally, judgments in favor of this figure were made most rapidly. Finally, attractiveness judgments and judgment times were found to be more closely related to those for health than for fecundity or pregnancy judgments.

Adult↗

PubMed2003

Reducing bias in frequency judgment by improving source monitoring.

A common finding in judgment and decision making is that people's frequency judgments often fail to map onto objective frequencies. The present research examined the possibility that one source of bias in frequency judgment is attributable to people's inability to screen out irrelevant memory traces. We used a two-list source-monitoring paradigm to investigate whether frequency judgments are influenced by "extra-experimental" experiences and whether enhancing source monitoring improves judgment accuracy. Across four experiments we found: (1) frequency judgments regarding one list were biased by the second, (2) manipulating encoding between lists improved source monitoring and resulted in more accurate judgments, (3) manipulating item context between lists improved source monitoring and resulted in more accurate judgments, but only when the context was item specific, and (4) manipulating simple-background context between lists was ineffective at improving source monitoring.

Decision Making↗

PubMed1982

Loci of contextual effects in judgment.

Three experiments investigated the loci of contextual effects in judgment. Experiment 1 demonstrated the effect of stimulus spacing on category ratings and magnitude estimations of the darkness of dot patterns. Variations in the stimulus spacing were shown to affect both category ratings and magnitude estimations in a similar fashion. Experiment 2 was designed to determine whether contextual effects due to stimulus spacing influence the scale values or the judgment function. Subjects judged "differences" and "ratios" of the subjective darkness of dot patterns. Differences in mean judgments of single stimuli from Experiment 1 did not predict the rank order of judged "differences" and "ratios" from Experiment 2. The estimated scale values of the stimuli appeared to be independent of stimulus spacing. These findings suggest that contextual effects due to the stimulus spacing occur in the judgment function for within-modality judgments. Experiment 3 examined contextual effects in cross-modality judgments. Stimulus spacing and stimulus range were manipulated for "difference" and "total" judgments. Unlike the within-modality results, the stimulus range and spacing influenced the scale values. A contextual theory of within- and cross-modality judgment is presented.

Discrimination Learning↗

PubMed2002

Life-satisfaction is a momentary judgment and a stable personality characteristic: the use of chronically accessible and stable sources.

Social cognition research indicates that life-satisfaction judgments are based on a selected set of relevant information that is accessible at the time of the life-satisfaction judgment. Personality research indicates that life-satisfaction judgments are quite stable over extended periods of time and predicted by personality traits. The present article integrates these two research traditions. We propose that people rely on the same sources to form repeated life-satisfaction judgments over time. Some of these sources (e.g., memories of emotional experiences, academic performance) provide stable information that explains the stability in life-satisfaction judgments. Second, we propose that the influence of personality traits on life satisfaction is mediated by the use of chronically accessible sources because traits produce stability of these sources. Most important, the influence of extraversion and neuroticism is mediated by use of memories of past emotional experiences. To test this model, participants repeatedly judged life-satisfaction over the course of a semester. After each assessment, participants reported sources that they used for these judgments. Changes in reported sources were related to changes in life-satisfaction judgments. A path model demonstrated that chronically accessible and stable sources are related to stable individual differences in life-satisfaction. Furthermore, the model supported the hypothesis that personality effects were mediated by chronically accessible and stable sources. In sum, the results are consistent with our theory that life-satisfaction judgments are based on chronically accessible sources.

Cognition↗

PubMed1998

Judgments of personal and environmental risks of consumer products--do they differ?

Many psychometric studies have investigated judgments concerning personal risks from technologies, activities or consumer products, but only a few studies have included judgments of risk to the environment. Thus, little is known about this aspect of environmental risk perception, and whether it differs from personal risk perception. This study investigates risk judgments for 30 consumer products of various types such as herbal remedies, mobile telephones, genetically engineered drugs, or garden pesticides. A survey was conducted in two German cities: Leipzig and West Berlin. In total, 408 subjects evaluated the consumer products with regard to personal and environmental risk (and other risk-related aspects) and whether they would recommend the product to others. The findings show statistically significant differences between the mean values of perceived personal risk and environmental risk for most products. Despite these differences, the rank order of mean personal risk and environmental risk judgments for the products is quite similar. However, separate analyses for each product reveal that correlations between perceived personal and environmental risk vary strongly across products. Multiple regression analyses with personal and environmental risk judgments as predictors and product recommendation as criterion, run separately for each consumer product, show that it is mainly the judgment of perceived personal risk that explains product recommendation. Perceived risk to the environment adds little explanatory power. The study also explores differences in judgments of personal and environmental risk with regard to two sociodemographic variables: location (former East Germany vs. West Germany) and gender. Differences in both types of risk judgments are found with regard to location but not for gender.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2006

Does ADHD in adults affect the relative accuracy of metamemory judgments?

OBJECTIVE: Prior research suggests that individuals with ADHD overestimate their performance across domains despite performing more poorly in these domains. The authors introduce measures of accuracy from the larger realm of judgment and decision making--namely, relative accuracy and calibration--to the study of self-evaluative judgment accuracy in adults with ADHD. METHOD: Twenty-eight adults with ADHD and 28 matched controls participate in a computer-administered paired-associate learning task and predict their future recall using immediate and delayed judgments of learning (JOLs). Retrospective confidence judgments are also collected. RESULTS: Groups perform equally in terms of judgment magnitude and absolute judgment accuracy as measured by discrepancy scores and calibration curves. Both groups benefit equally from making their JOL at a delay, and the group with ADHD show higher relative accuracy for delayed judgments. CONCLUSION: Results suggest that under certain circumstances, adults with ADHD can make accurate judgments about their future memory.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2002

Momentary and integrative response strategies in causal judgment.

Associative models of causal learning predict recency effects. Judgments at the end of a trial series should be strongly biased by recently presented information. Prior research, however, presents a contrasting picture of human performance. López, Shanks, Almaraz, and Fernández (1998) observed recency, whereas Dennis and Ahn (2001) found the opposite, primacy. Here we replicate both of these effects and provide an explanation for this paradox. Four experiments show that the effect of trial order on judgments is a function of judgment frequency, where incremental judgments lead to recency while single final judgments abolish recency and lead instead to integration of information across trials (i.e., primacy). These results challenge almost all existing accounts of causal judgment. We propose a modified associative account in which participants can base their causal judgments either on current associative strength (momentary strategy) or on the cumulative change in associative strength since the previous judgment (integrative strategy).

Adolescent↗

PubMed1998

Memorability judgments for high- and low-frequency words.

Five experiments were conducted in order to examine subjects' judgments of the memorability of high- (HF) and low-frequency (LF) words in the context of a recognition memory task. In Experiment 1, the subjects were provided study/test experience with a list of HF and LF words prior to making memorability judgments for a new list of HF and LF items. The findings were consistent with previous evidence (Greene & Thapar, 1994; Wixted, 1992) suggesting that subjects are not explicitly aware of the greater recognition memorability of LF words. Experiments 2-5 embedded the memorability judgment task within the recognition test itself. In these experiments, the subjects consistently gave higher memorability ratings to LF items. The contrast between the pattern of results found when the subjects made their judgments at the time of list presentation (Experiment 1) and that when they made their judgments during the recognition test (Experiments 2-5) is consistent with recent evidence that even seemingly highly related metamnemonic judgments (e.g., ease of learning judgments vs. judgments of learning for the same items) may be based on very different factors if they occur at different points in the study/test cycle. The present findings are also consistent with the possibility that very rapid retrieval of memorability information for HF and LF words may affect recognition decisions and may contribute to the recognition memory word frequency effect.

Analysis of Variance↗

PubMed2004

Text cohesion and metacomprehension: immediate and delayed judgments.

In three experiments, we examined comprehension judgments made after a piece of text had been read. We propose that such metacognitive judgments are based on the content of working memory at the exact moment of assessment. Generally speaking, this working metacognition hypothesis is in agreement with Koriat's cue utilization approach, which implies that different elements of information will be available (and used) depending on the moment at which a judgment is made. More specifically, our hypothesis focuses on the management of working memory during reading as a cause for cue (un)availability. In support of these views, the results of Experiment 1 showed that a cohesion manipulation affecting the comprehension of specific paragraphs influences judgments only on these paragraphs, and not on judgments on the whole text. In Experiment 2, we showed that an interfering task that takes place just before this paragraph judgment is made wipes out this cohesion effect. Experiment 3 showed, on the other hand, that the whole-text judgment may, nevertheless, be affected by text cohesion, provided that the readers keep an access to the text when the judgment is made. These results support the idea that working memory management makes different cues available for metacognitive ratings at different delays.

Cognition↗

PubMed1989

[Developmental changes in judgment of weights addition].

As weight is invisible, some judgmental criteria are needed in judging weight. An experiment was carried out using the second, fourth, sixth, eighth graders and college students to reveal (1) what weights positions make subjects more errors in judgment of weights addition and (2) what relationships will be found between the judgments and judgmental criteria. Subjects were engaged in the tasks to judge weights addition in two conditions, height of weights and relative positions, and were asked the judgmental criteria in two situations, visual exteroceptive and realistic proprioceptive situations. Results showed clearly the developmental changes. The fourth graders dominantly produced errors in height of weights conditions and tended to depend on the criteria in realistic situations. In the contrast to this, the eighth graders committed errors in relative differences of weights positions and depended on the criteria in visual situations as well as realistic ones. Sex differences were also observed in terms of criteria. No relations between the judgments and judgmental criteria was found in girls' judgments of weights additions.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2003

[Perceptual judgments of novel contour shapes and hierarchical descriptions of geometrical properties].

Previous studies of pattern psychophysics have suggested that a form property such as the number of turns and a structural property such as symmetry were useful cues for perceptual judgments of simple forms. However, it is necessary for complete descriptions of more complex forms to use hierarchical indices reflecting global and local characteristics. In this study, we clarified what geometrical properties contributed to complexity and similarity judgments of novel shapes, and examined differences between the two judgments, using Fourier descriptors as a form property, and symmetropy as a structural property. Global and local unevenness were derived from the amplitude of Fourier descriptors, and the hierarchical representation was found in both judgment data. Whereas complexity judgment was based on local unevenness and global symmetry, similarity judgment was, it was suggested, mainly based on global unevenness and symmetry. Moreover, it became clear that geometrical properties important for complexity data were a subset of those for similarity data. These results suggested that more dimensions in geometrical properties were necessary for similarity judgment than complexity judgment.

Form Perception↗

PubMed1990

Are two (inexperienced) heads better than one (experienced) head? Averaging house officers' prognostic judgments for critically ill patients.

Inexperienced physicians may make prognostic judgments and management decisions about acutely ill patients in the absence of supervision. We hypothesized that mathematically combining judgments of junior and senior house officers might yield aggregate judgments as good as those made by experienced critical care attending physicians. We obtained independent quantitative assessments of the likelihood of in-hospital survival for 269 sequential intensive care unit admissions from the patient's intern or resident and the critical care fellow and attending physician on duty within 24 hours of admission, and compared these judgements with mortality data. By logistic regression, the residents' and fellows' judgments added independent prognostic information to each other (likelihood ratio chi 2, 7.6; df = 1). The junior house officers' and fellows' assessments were significantly less reliable than the attending physicians' by calibration curves, and by Brier scores, 0.126 and 0.127 vs 0.119. All physicians had good discriminating ability (receiver operating characteristic areas [SE] were 0.83 [0.03], 0.85 [0.03], 0.86 [0.03], respectively). A simple average of the residents' and fellows' judgments was slightly but significantly more reliable by calibration curve and by Brier score, 0.117, and as discriminating (ROC area = 0.85, SE = 0.03) as the attending physicians' judgments. Nonmedical studies have shown that averaging independent judgments may compensate for people's tendency to make extreme estimates, and may take advantage of their complementary abilities. This first medical application of this technique suggests that this form of voting by secret ballot may prove useful for health care teams making other judgments and decisions.

Clinical Competence↗

PubMed1985

Measuring physicians' judgment--the use of clinical data by Australian rheumatologists.

Most therapeutic decisions depend upon the clinical judgment of physicians assessing their patients. However the inherent and wide variation in such judgments is usually ignored. Rheumatoid arthritis typifies those diseases in which much information is available on which to base decisions, but little is known about how physicians combine the data to evaluate their patients' response to treatment. Thirty-four Australian rheumatologists recorded their assessments of the progress of 50 rheumatoid patients treated with 'second line' agents, based on data presented on previously validated written forms. Clinical judgment analysis, a form of multiple regression analysis, was then used to model the way physicians' judgments related to the available data. There were major differences of judgment in the assessments of response to therapy. This was so even when only 'clinically important' changes were identified. The variance in judgments which could be modelled by clinical judgment analysis ranged from 45% to 94%. Both individual inconsistency and differences in the underlying use of data contributed to disagreements between clinicians' assessments of identical cases. Identifying underlying differences in the way clinical data relate to clinicians' judgments is a step towards improving clinical consistency.

Arthritis, Rheumatoid↗