Socioeconomic development, medical care, and nutrition as determinants of infant mortality in less-developed countries.
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OBJECTIVE: To estimate the mortality of progressive supranuclear palsy (PSP) and to assess the quality of death certification in patients with PSP who died in England and Wales. METHODS: An analysis was conducted of ICD-9 (International Classification of Diseases, version 9) coded deaths obtained through the Office of National Statistics over an eight year period. RESULTS: The crude annual mortality rate was 1.77 (95% confidence interval, 1.64 to 1.90) cases per million, using the mid-1996 population estimate for England and Wales. Annual mortality increased over time, possibly as a result of increased incidence or increased awareness of the disorder. Forty nine death certificates from deceased patients previously diagnosed clinically showed that the commonest proximate cause of death was pneumonia, occurring in 45% of cases (22/49). The underlying cause of death was cited as pneumonia in 14% of cases (7/49). PSP was mentioned in only 65% of death certificates (32/49). Eight of the 49 cases (16%) underwent necropsy and results were available for five of these cases. PSP was confirmed pathologically in four; the remaining case was diagnosed as Parkinson's disease. CONCLUSIONS: Further research is needed to establish the reasons for the observed increase in mortality. Determining the population mortality rate for PSP using the ICD-9 coding system is problematic but is likely to improve following the introduction of ICD-10 updated codes and coding rules.
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The aim of this study was to analyze the victims of the Marmara earthquake who injured, especially had the crush syndrome. Our hospital received a total of 645 victims after the earthquake and admitted 330. Victims were classified into five different groups according to their diagnosis (crush syndrome, vital organ injury, vertebral and pelvic injuries, others and unknown) and their mortality rates were determined. Mortality was highest (21%) in the crush syndrome group. Second and third highest mortality were in the unknown (20%) and vital organ injury (20%) groups. The overall mortality rate was 8%. In conclusion the earthquake victims with crush syndrome and vital organ injury had the highest mortality and morbidity rates. Because of that so many departments (General Surgery, Emergency Medicine, Orthopedics Surgery, Plastic Surgery, Nephrology, Infection Disease etc.) had to be study in a great harmonious.
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The factors that can influence the outcome of orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) are numerous. The purpose of this study was to determine the effects of recipient preoperative factors on patient mortality. Between April 1986 and April 1998 a total of 600 OLTs were performed in our institution. We retrospectively reviewed our first 203 consecutive primary adult OLTs with at least 4 years of follow-up. A case-control comparison was performed between survivors and nonsurvivors, and differences in recipient variables were studied for their correlation with patient mortality. A logistic regression analysis was also performed. Mortality was significantly increased among those with fulminant hepatic failure (FHF) (66.6%, p = 0.003), primary cancer (63.1%, p = 0.018), females (46.1%, p = 0. 043), encephalopathy grade IV (72.7%, p = 0.012), recipients under respiratory support (69.2%, p = 0.031), and ABO-incompatible transplants (80%, p = 0.05). FHF, primary cancer, and female gender were the only variables that had a significant association with mortality in the logistic regression analysis. A higher incidence of prolonged respiratory support, bacterial and fungal infections, pneumonia, and chronic rejection contributed to the lower outcome observed in females. These results stress the need for continuous evaluation of the selection criteria of candidates for OLT suffering from primary cancer and FHF. The impact of recipient gender on mortality warrants further analysis but suggests that in the future more attention must be paid to the influence of this factor on the final outcome of OLT.
The experience with 108 cases of hepatic injuries was reviewed retrospectively and a classification based on the severity of the hepatic injury was used to group these patients accordingly. Using this criteria, the factors determining the observed morbidity and mortality were analyzed. Hepatic injuries amenable to relatively simple surgical treatment were found in 72 patients (67%). Nine deaths occurring in this group were attributed to the commonly encountered associated injuries inside and outside the abdomen. Moderately severe imjuries requiring suturing of the hepatic parenchyma and ligation of injured vessels and bile ducts were seen in 15 patients (14%). Two of these patients died. Severe hepatic injuries resulting in major blood loss requiring partial hepatectomy were seen in 21 patients (19%). Seven of the eight deaths (7.4%) attributable to the hepatic injury occurred in this group. As noted, ten other patients died from causes other than the hepatic injury for an overall mortality of 16.7%. A pre-established patient management program based on the classification of hepatic injuries is proposed as a method for improving the management of patients with hepatic injuries.
The reasons for classifying causes of death into aggregate groups are discussed and the impact of mortality partitions on analyses of mortality is described. Special emphasis is given to a mortality partition that distinguishes between intrinsic causes of death that arise primarily from the failure of biological processes that originate within an organism, and extrinsic causes of death that are primarily imposed on the organism by outside forces. Examples involving mortality data for mice, dogs, and humans are used to illustrate how this mortality partition infuses biological reasoning into mathematical models used to analyze and predict senescent-determined mortality, enhances the information content of the mortality schedules generated from these models, improves mortality comparisons between populations within species separated by time or geographic location, and provides a logical pathology endpoint for making interspecies comparisons of mortality. By bridging biology and the statistics of mortality, a mortality partition based on intrinsic and extrinsic causes of death provides both structure and direction for research on senescent-determined mortality.
OBJECTIVES: To identify characteristics associated with mortality and the development of multiorgan dysfunction in patients who had undergone cardiac surgery and required prolonged mechanical ventilation, ie, > 48 h. DESIGN: A prospective cohort study. SETTING: Barnes Hospital, St. Louis, an academic tertiary care center. PATIENTS OR OTHER PARTICIPANTS: A total of 107 consecutive patients undergoing cardiac surgery and requiring prolonged mechanical ventilation. INTERVENTIONS: Prospective patients surveillance and data collection. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: ICU mortality and multiorgan dysfunction. RESULTS: Among 472 consecutive patients admitted to the cardiac surgery ICU following surgery, 107 (22.7%) required prolonged mechanical ventilation. Twenty-one of these patients (19.6%) died during their hospitalization. In a logistic-regression analysis, the development of an organ system failure index (OSFI) of 3 or greater was the only characteristic independently associated with ICU mortality (p < 0.001). The occurrence of an antibiotic-resistant infection (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 6.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.5 to 14.6 p = 0.006), an aortic cross-clamp time equal to or greater than 1.25 h (AOR = 3.9, CI = 2.3 to 6.8, p = 0.016), the development of ventilator-associated pneumonia (AOR = 3.6, CI = 2.4 to 5.3, p < 0.001), and an APACHE III score equal to or greater than 30 (AOR = 3.1, CI = 1.8 to 5.3, p = 0.036) were independently associated with the development of an OSFI of 3 or greater. CONCLUSIONS: These data confirm that acquired multiorgan dysfunction is the best predictor of mortality in patients requiring prolonged mechanical ventilation following cardiac surgery. Additionally, they identify potential determinants of multiorgan dysfunction and suggest possible interventions for its reduction in this patient population.
OBJECTIVES: We compared patterns of mortality among men with prostate cancer at 2 Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) and 2 private-sector hospitals in the Chicago area. METHODS: Mortality rates for 864 cases diagnosed between 1986 and 1990 were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models that incorporated age; income; cancer stage, differentiation, and treatments; and baseline comorbidity. RESULTS: Race tended to associate with all-cause mortality irrespective of health care setting (Blacks vs Whites: hazard rate ratio [HRR] = 1.68 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.06, 2.67]; P <.001 in the private sector; HRR = 1.50 [95% CI = 0.94, 2.38]; P =.088 in the VA). However, comorbidity determined risk in the VA, whereas age and income predicted risk in the private sector. CONCLUSIONS: Determinants of all-cause mortality in men with prostate cancer vary according to health care setting.
Long-term prognosis of a first myocardial infarction and factors associated with late cardiac mortality and reinfarction were studied in 718 survivors. Patients have been followed up for 1-10 years (mean 57.6 +/- 39.6 months). None of the patients underwent coronary bypass surgery in the follow-up period. Cumulative mortality rates were 8.6% in the first year, 17.9% in 3 years, 26.4% in 5 years and 36.5% in 10 years. The type and site of myocardial infarction (Q-wave versus non-Q-wave and anterior versus infero-posterior) were found to have no independent prognostic importance. The cardiac mortality was best predicted by the occurrence of congestive heart failure in the coronary care unit. Other determinants of late outcome were the presence of ventricular arrhythmias, left bundle branch block, and the occurrence of stable or unstable angina pectoris or reinfarction during the follow-up period. Usage of antiplatelet or anticoagulant drugs was not found to affect mortality. Reinfarction rates were 4, 9.9, 15.5 and 28% in 1, 3, 5 and 10 years, respectively, and no relation was found between the type and location of myocardial infarction and reinfarction rate. Reinfarction was higher in patients receiving anticoagulants and in patients with postmyocardial infarction angina. Our findings suggest that the prognosis of patients with a first acute myocardial infarction in Turkey is not different from that in Western populations and factors influencing prognosis are similar to those previously reported.
OBJECTIVE: To determine the range of excess death associated with influenza in Japan. METHODS: The monthly rates for mortality from all causes other than accidents (ICD9: E800-E949, ICD-10: V01-X59) were determined from the Japanese national vital statistics for 1987-2003. By employing a model using the annual mortality rates and the seasonal index, the number of expected deaths and the 95% range of mortality in the absence of influenza-associated deaths (normal range) were obtained. Point estimation of excess mortality during an influenza season was performed by calculation of differences between the number of deaths observed and the number of deaths expected. The range of excess death was defined: the lower limit of the excess death was performed by calculation of difference between the number of deaths observed and the upper limit of the normal range. The upper limit of the excess death, on the contrary, was performed by calculation of difference between the number of deaths observed and the lower limit of the normal range. Based on the results of a survey of tendencies in the occurrence of infectious diseases, months showing a high prevalence of influenza and associated deaths were regarded as "months when the rate of death from influenza was 0.9 deaths/100,000 person-years or higher". RESULTS: The excess death determined by point estimation was largest in 1999, followed by 1995, 1993, 1997, 2000, and 2003. The point estimation (range of excess death) in 1999 was approximately 49,000 (approximate range, 37,000-60,000). Correspondingly, the excess death in 1995 was approximately 38,000 (approximate range, 27,000-48,000). While values in 1993, 1997, 2000, and 2003 were in the approximate range of 21,000 to 25,000, the range of excess death of each year showed the differences: approximate range from 15,000 to 36,000 in 1993, from 18,000 to 31,000 in 1997, from 18,000 to 28,000 in 2000, and from 11,000 to 34,000 in 2003, respectively. From comparison of the range of excess deaths by year, that in 1995 appeared to be the largest among the examined years. CONCLUSION: By considering the range of variation in the number of deaths in the years when no influenza epidemics occurred, the increase (the largest number and smallest number of deaths) associated with elevation the prevalence of influenza could be determined. Estimation of the range of excess deaths can be considered a useful method for understanding the influence of influenza on public health.
OBJECTIVE: We sought to define the prevalence of definitive end states and their determinants in children given a diagnosis of pulmonary atresia and intact ventricular septum during the neonatal period. METHODS: Between 1987 and 1997, 408 neonates with pulmonary atresia and intact ventricular septum were entered into a prospective study by 33 institutions. Competing risks analysis was used to demonstrate the prevalence of 6 end states. Factors predictive of attaining each end state were identified by means of multivariable analysis with bootstrap validation. RESULTS: Overall survival was 77% at 1 month, 70% at 6 months, 60% at 5 years, and 58% at 15 years. Prevalence of end states 15 years after entry were as follows: 2-ventricle repair, 33%; Fontan repair, 20%; 1.5-ventricle repair, 5%; heart transplant, 2%; death before reaching definitive repair, 38%; and alive without definitive repair, 2%. Patient-related factors discriminating among end states primarily included adequacy of right-sided heart structures, degree of aberration of coronary circulation, low birth weight, and tricuspid valve regurgitation. After adjusting for these factors, 2 institutions were predictive of 2-ventricle repair, 1 of Fontan repair, and 6 of death before definitive repair. Two institutions were predictive of both 2-ventricle and Fontan repair. These 2 institutions achieved a higher risk-adjusted prevalence of definitive repair and a lower prevalence of prerepair mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Characteristics of neonates with pulmonary atresia and intact ventricular septum predict type of definitive repair. A morphologically driven institutional protocol emphasizing both 2-ventricle and Fontan pathways might mitigate the negative effect of unfavorable morphology. In the current era, 85% of neonates are likely to reach a definitive surgical end point, with 2-ventricle repair achieved in an estimated 50%.
The long time needed to carry out experimental studies of screening for chronic diseases limits their usefulness. This paper describes a method of using prognostic factors, such as the stage of cancer, determined at the time of treatment in screened and unscreened groups to predict the subsequent population mortality rate in each group. The method of prediction makes use of available data on the relation of case fatality to the prognostic factors. Such predictions could be made several years in advance of the time that mortality would be observed directly. The method is illustrated by use of data from the Health Insurance Plan (HIP) study of screening for breast cancer. A reduction of mortality in screened compared to unscreened women was predicted, but it was substantially less than the reduction that was observed. Potential sources of error in the predictions are discussed.
An essential ingredient in the evaluation of policies concerning health services is knowledge of the impact of health services and other factors on the health of the population. One method of obtaining this information is from the regression analysis of international cross-section data on mortality rates, health service provision, income levels, consumption patterns, and other variables hypothesised to affect population health. The investigation of the determinants of population health is in many ways akin to the estimation of production functions which describe the relationship between the output of goods or services and the mix of inputs used in their production. The purpose of our paper is to use this analogy to discuss, and provide examples of, the problems which arise with the statistical investigation of mortality rates. Issues raised include simultaneous equation bias, multicollinearity, selection of explanatory variables, omitted variable bias, definition and measurement of variables, functional forms, lagged relationships and temporal stability. These problems are illustrated by replication and re-analysis, using new data, of the well known study by Cochrane, St Leger and Moore.