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PubMed2004

Dental nomograms for benchmarking based on the study of health in Pomerania data set.

AIM: Benchmarking is a means of setting goals or targets. On an oral health level, it denotes retaining more teeth and/or improving the quality of life. The goal of this pilot investigation was to assess whether the data generated by a population-based study (SHIP 0) can be used as a benchmark data set to characterize different practice profiles. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The data collected in the population-based study SHIP (n=4310) in eastern Germany were used to generate nomograms of tooth loss, attachment loss, and probing depth. The nomograms included twelve 5-year age strata (20-79 years) presented as quartiles, and additional percentiles of the dental parameters for each age group. Cross-sectional data from a conventional dental office (n=186) and from a periodontology unit (n=130, Greifswald) in the study region as well as longitudinal data set of a another periodontology unit (n=135, Kiel) were utilized in order to verify whether the given practice profile was accurately reflected by the nomogram. RESULTS: In terms of tooth loss, the data from the conventional dental office agree with the median from the nomogram. For attachment loss and probing depth, some age groups yielded slight but not uniform deviations from the median. Cross-sectional data from the periodontology unit Greifswald showed attachment loss higher than the median in younger but not in older age groups. The probing depth was uniformly less than the median and tended toward the 25th percentile with increasing age. The longitudinal data of the Unit of Periodontology in Kiel showed a pronounced trend towards higher percentiles of residual teeth, meaning that the patients retained more teeth. CONCLUSION: The profile of the Pomeranian dental office does not deviate noticeably from the population-based nomograms. The higher attachment loss of the Unit of Periodontology in Greifswald in younger age strata clearly reflects their selection because of periodontal disease; the combination of higher attachment loss and decreased probing depth may reflect the success of the treatment. The tendency of attachment loss towards the median with increasing age may indicate that the Unit of Periodontology in Greifswald does not fulfill its function as a special care unit in the older subjects. The longitudinal data set of the Unit of Periodontology in Kiel impressively reflects the potential of population-based data sets as a means for benchmarking. Thus, nomograms can help to determine the practice profile, potentially yielding benefits for the dentist, health insurance company, or--as in the case of the special care unit--public health research.

Adult↗

PubMed2005

A nomogram that predicts the presence of sentinel node metastasis in melanoma with better discrimination than the American Joint Committee on Cancer staging system.

BACKGROUND: The threshold and indications for sentinel lymph node (SLN) biopsy in patients with melanoma remain somewhat arbitrary. Many variables associated with SLN positivity have previously been identified, including a significant association between the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system and SLN status. We developed a user-friendly nomogram that takes several characteristics into account simultaneously to more accurately predict the presence of SLN metastasis for an individual patient. METHODS: A total of 979 patients who underwent successful SLN biopsy for cutaneous melanoma at a single institution between February 1991 and November 2003 were included in the analysis. Predictors were used to develop a nomogram, based on logistic regression analysis, to predict the probability of SLN positivity. A large multi-institutional trial with 3108 patients was used to validate the predictive accuracy of the nomogram compared with the AJCC staging system. RESULTS: The nomogram was developed and found to be accurate and discriminating. The concordance index of the nomogram, a measure of predictive ability, was .694 when evaluated with the validation dataset. In contrast, the concordance index of the AJCC staging system was lower (.663; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Using commonly available clinicopathologic information, we developed a nomogram to accurately predict the probability of a positive SLN in patients with melanoma. This tool takes several characteristics into account simultaneously. This model should enable improved patient counseling and treatment selection.

Female↗

PubMed2006

Evaluation of preoperative therapy for pancreatic cancer using a prognostic nomogram.

BACKGROUND: Theoretical benefits of preoperative chemoradiation therapy (preop CRT) for pancreatic cancer include improved efficacy, resectability, and patient selection. The goal of this study was to evaluate the applicability of a nomogram, which was developed for patients undergoing resection without preop CRT and which incorporates several post-resection pathological factors, to a population of patients who received preop CRT prior to resection. METHODS: From 1994 to 2004, 82 patients with biopsy-proven, radiographically localized adenocarcinoma of the pancreatic head underwent preop CRT followed by pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD); 50 concurrent patients underwent PD without preop CRT. Mean nomogram-predicted disease-specific survival (DSS) rates were compared with observed DSS rates from the time of resection. RESULTS: Despite having more locally advanced tumors on initial staging (21 vs. 8%; P < .05), patients who received preop CRT had smaller resected tumors (mean 2.3 vs. 3.1 cm; P < .01), were less likely to have T3 tumors (54 vs. 80%, P < .01), were less likely to have positive lymph nodes (29 vs. 58%, P < .01), and had fewer positive lymph nodes (mean .4 vs. 1.9, P < .01), all factors that imply treatment effect and favorably impact on nomogram-predicted DSS. Observed DSS was similar to predicted DSS in both groups. CONCLUSIONS: The similarity in observed and predicted DSS following resection in patients who received preop CRT suggests that the effects of preop CRT-whether treatment, selection, or no effect-are reflected by the nomogram. The ability of the nomogram to evaluate the effects of preop CRT on survival is limited by the potential effects of preop CRT on factors within the nomogram.

Adenocarcinoma↗

PubMedDate not supplied

A new nomogram to predict pathologic outcome following radical prostatectomy.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a preoperative nomogram to predict pathologic outcome in patients submitted to radical prostatectomy for clinical localized prostate cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Nine hundred and sixty patients with clinical stage T1 and T2 prostate cancer were evaluated following radical prostatectomy, and 898 were included in the study. Following a multivariate analysis, nomograms were developed incorporating serum PSA, biopsy Gleason score, and percentage of positive biopsy cores in order to predict the risks of extraprostatic tumor extension, and seminal vesicle involvement. RESULTS: In univariate analysis there was a significant association between percentage of positive biopsy cores (p < 0.001), serum PSA (p = 0.001) and biopsy Gleason score (p < 0.001) with extraprostatic tumor extension. A similar pathologic outcome was seen among tumors with Gleason score 7, and Gleason score 8 to 10. In multivariate analysis, the 3 preoperative variables showed independent significance to predict tumor extension. This allowed the development of nomogram-1 (using Gleason scores in 3 categories - 2 to 6, 7 and 8 to 10) and nomogram-2 (using Gleason scores in 2 categories - 2 to 6 and 7 to 10) to predict disease extension based on these 3 parameters. In the validation analysis, 87% and 91.1% of the time the nomograms-1 and 2, correctly predicted the probability of a pathological stage to within 10% respectively. CONCLUSION: Incorporating percent of positive biopsy cores to a nomogram that includes preoperative serum PSA and biopsy Gleason score, can accurately predict the presence of extraprostatic disease extension in patients with clinical localized prostate cancer.

Analysis of Variance↗

PubMedDate not supplied

[May the Blaivas and Groutz nomogram substitute videourodynamic studies in the diagnosis of female lower urinary tract obstruction?].

OBJECTIVES: To compare the results of the Blaivas and Groutz nomogram in the diagnosis of female urinary obstruction with videourodynamic tests. METHODS: We performed a transverse study in a series of 52 female patients with ages between 20 and 81 years (mean age: 48.7 years; standard deviation: 14.4 years) and functional lower urinary tract symptoms referred for videourodynamic studies. All patients underwent free flowmetry and voiding videourodynamic study. From the scores of free flowmetry and maximum detrusor pressure in the detrusor pressure/voiding flow test of the urodynamic study they were classified in one of four categories following the Blaivas and Groutz nomogram. Following urodynamic data they were classified into three categories: absence of obstruction, bladder neck obstruction and urethral obstruction. The nomogram results were compared with the videourodynamic data using the Pearson chi-square statistical test. The diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of the nomogram were also determined. RESULTS: The Blaivas and Groutz nomogram showed a significant association with the videourodynamic data (p = 0.000). Its diagnostic sensitivity for obstruction was 100%, but its specificity was only 67.5%. The percentage of diagnostic discrepancies was maximal in the mild obstruction, where one third of the patients were obstructed following the videourodynamic data. CONCLUSIONS: The Blaivas and Groutz nomogram is a sensitive method for the diagnosis of obstruction, but its specificity is low so that it has the tendency to overdiagnose the presence of obstruction in the female patient.

Adult↗

PubMed2005

Nomogram for prediction of the risk of neonatal hyperbilirubinemia, using transcutaneous bilirubin.

Assessing the risk of developing severe hyperbilirubinemia, based on a nomogram has been recommended by the American Academy of Pediatrics. The objectives of this study were: 1) To develop an hour-specific nomogram, using transcutaneous bilirubin level (TCB, Bilicheck, SpecRx, Inc, Norcross, GA, USA), in Thai newborn infants and 2) To determine the risk zones that will predict the development of severe hyperbilirubinemia. Three hundred and ninety two (392) healthy neonates, born by C-section, were recruited from November 2003 to May 2004. One hundred and eight (108) infants were excluded from the nomogram development due to hemolytic diseases (ABO incompatibility 51, G6PD deficiency 34, combined ABO incompatibility and G6PD deficiency 3) and requirement of phototherapy (20). Nomogram, using daily hour-specific TcB for 4 days, of 284 neonates was constructed Plotting all 392 infants, TcB on the nomogram, the risk zones in relation to the requirement of phototherapy was determined. The 90th percentile (P90) was designated as high risk track with the sensitivity of 96.9%, specificity 78.8%, positive and negative predictive values 29.1% and 99% respectively, and LR 4.6. P10 was labeled as very low risk track, area between P10-P25 as low risk zone, P25-P90 as intermediate zone with P25-P50 as low intermediate and P50-P90 as high intermediate. In conclusion, an hour-specific TcB nomogram, can be used to identify the risk of subsequent development of severe hyperbilirubinemia. Recognizing the infants risk enables awareness of the problem and prompt intervention which should reduce severe hyperbilirubinemia and chance to develop bilirubin encephalopathy.

Bilirubin↗

PubMed1994

Flow rate nomograms in 7- to 16-year-old healthy children.

To construct flow rate nomograms for children, 180 healthy boys and girls aged 7-16 years were examined with a new kind of flowmeter. Each child presented at least two registrations. The flow rate was significantly higher at the second examination and these micturitions were used to construct the nomograms. The relation between flow rate and volume may be described by the function flow = b volume(c), where b and c describe the slope and curvature, respectively. The advantages of using this relation are that non-parametric statistics can be employed, the variation around the median increases with increasing volume, and it is easy to calculate volume corrected flow rates. The exponent 0.5, often used earlier, was found to overestimate flow rates obtained at low volumes. In the constructed nomograms, the exponent varied between 0.29 and 0.42. The volume corrected maximum flow rate was about 2 ml/s higher in girls than in boys. This difference was significant. The difference of about 1.5 ml/s in average flow rate was not significant. The flow rate increased significantly with age. For volume corrected flow rates, there was, however, no significant change with age. Thus, the increase in flow rate with age is secondary to an increase in voided volume. As a result of these analyses, four nomograms were constructed showing the maximum and average flow rates for boys and girls separately. The flow rates of the new nomograms are on a level with or somewhat higher than the flow rates in previously presented nomograms for both children and young adults.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2003

Use of nomograms to predict the risk of disease recurrence after definitive local therapy for prostate cancer.

The generally indolent nature of prostate cancer, as well as the impact that treatment can have on quality of life (QOL) and cancer control, makes the decision analysis difficult for patients facing the task of selecting a treatment for clinically localized disease. Instruments to aid patients and their physicians in this decision analysis are needed. Nomograms are instruments that predict outcomes using specific clinical parameters. Nomograms use algorithms that incorporate several variables to calculate the predicted probability that a patient will achieve a particular clinical end point. Nomograms tend to outperform both clinical experts and predictive models using methods of risk grouping. We briefly outline the uses and limitations of nomograms, principles of nomogram construction, and the available models for predicting the progression-free probability after local definitive therapy with radical prostatectomy, external-beam radiotherapy, or brachytherapy. There is a need for additional nomograms that predict outcomes after salvage therapy, as well other clinical end points, including QOL-adjusted survival.

Actuarial Analysis↗

PubMed1992

Generation of an osmolality gap-ethanol nomogram from routine laboratory data.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: To develop a practical procedure for producing a nomogram describing the relationship between the osmolality gap and serum ethanol concentrations that is appropriate for the formulas and analytical methodologies in use at any laboratory. DESIGN: Retrospective review of serum sodium, glucose, urea nitrogen, ethanol, and osmolality values and the use of spreadsheet software in the generation of a nomogram. SETTING: Emergency department in a university-affiliated county hospital. PARTICIPANTS: Two hundred three adult patients presenting with signs of alcohol intoxication. MAIN RESULTS: When either a common criterion (gap [mosmol/kg H2O] = ethanol [mmol/L]; range, -10 to +10) or a published nomogram was used for determination of consistency of the osmolality gap with the ethanol level, large percentiles of data were classified as inconsistent. Regression analysis and the method of truncated normal distributions were used to prepare a nomogram that better represented the data collected with our formulas and analytical methodologies. CONCLUSION: Interlaboratory analytical bias and the choice of the formula used for calculated osmolality limit the utility of published formulas or nomograms for the assessment of excess osmolality gap. Any laboratory can produce their own nomogram from routine patient data using the described spreadsheet procedure, without the need for measurement of volatiles other than ethanol.

Acid-Base Equilibrium↗

PubMed2004

New nomogram for foetal weight estimation based on Hadlock's two-parameter formula.

AIM: To develop and validate a graphical method for ultrasonic foetal weight estimation with predictive qualities comparable to state-of-the-art computational methods. METHOD: Study data were obtained from 3839 consecutive singleton pregnancies with ultrasound examination within 7 days of delivery. We translated the well established Hadlock 2-parameter formula based on abdomen circumference and femur length into a nomogram [corrected]. We compared the measured foetal weight with estimations obtained from this new nomogram and three other methods. RESULTS: Measured by the foetal weight percentage error the new nomogram underestimates the foetal weight on average by 2.5 % (9.86) (mean [SD]) with uniform results over the complete birth weight spectrum. By the same measurement the Hadlock 4-parameter formula underestimates the foetal weight by 1.2 % (9.3) whereas the Hansmann nomogram overestimates the foetal weight by 14.5 % (16.1) The difference between the estimated foetal weight percentage error obtained from the new nomogram and from the Hadlock 2-parameter formula is 0.06 % (0.27) and hence clinically irrelevant. CONCLUSION: The new nomogram has predictive qualities comparable to state-of-the-art computational methods and is thus not only as reliable but also easy to use in situations when computers are not available. It can be recommended for foetal weight estimation over the whole spectrum of birth weight.

Embryonic and Fetal Development↗

PubMed2001

A study of pretreatment nomograms to predict pathological stage and biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy for clinically resectable prostate cancer in Japanese men.

BACKGROUND: Accurate pretreatment identification of the risks that prostate cancer has extended beyond the gland and that it will recur would significantly influence practice patterns. Preoperative nomograms to predict such risks have not been developed for the oriental male population. METHODS: Construction of nomograms to predict preoperatively pathological outcome and early biochemical failure following radical prostatectomy in Japanese males was based on logistic regression analysis, with predicted probabilities and 95% confidence intervals for the final model being obtained by repeating the analysis on 1000 bootstrap samples from the original cohort. RESULTS: Prostate-specific antigen level, clinical stage and biopsy Gleason score contributed significantly to the prediction of pathological stage and of biochemical failure in the univariate analysis (p < 0.001). Combined use of these three variables predicted these treatment outcomes better than any single variable (p < 0.001). Nomograms combining these three variables to predict final pathological findings and early biochemical failure were then developed. The medians and 95% confidence intervals of the predicted probabilities are presented in the nomograms. CONCLUSIONS: This information enables clinicians to use their nomograms when counseling Japanese patients, leading to more informed treatment decisions and helping to identify those with a high risk of early biochemical failure. The nomograms may also be used to assure comparability of different treatment modalities in investigational trials.

Aged↗

PubMed2003

Radical prostatectomy nomograms in black American men: accuracy and applicability.

PURPOSE: Nomograms have been developed to allow the prediction of disease recurrence based on clinical and pathological parameters in patients with clinically localized prostate cancer. However, they have been constructed using predominantly white American male (CAM) cohorts. We have previously shown that black American males (AAMs) have worse disease-free survival after radical prostatectomy after controlling for known prognostic factors. We tested the accuracy of prognostic nomograms in a population of AAMs with prostate cancer treated with radical prostatectomy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We tested the performance of published preoperative and postoperative prognostic nomograms in a cohort of patients treated with radical prostatectomy as monotherapy for localized prostate cancer at Wayne State University in the prostate specific antigen era. Predictions made with the nomogram were stratified by race and compared with actual outcomes. The summary statistic used to evaluate the nomogram was the concordance index. A value of 0.5 indicates no predictive discrimination, whereas a value of 1.0 indicates perfect discrimination. RESULTS: A total of 1,043 patients, including 331 AAMs (32%) and 712 CAMs (68%), comprised the study cohort. Treatment failure was defined as increasing prostate specific antigen, which occurred in 193 patients (18.5%). The preoperative concordance index for CAMs and AAMs was 0.78 and 0.74, respectively (p = 0.8). The postoperative index was 0.85 and 0.83, respectively (p = 0.9). CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative and postoperative nomograms can be applied accurately to an individual regardless of race.

Black People↗

PubMed1986

The Astrand-Ryhming nomogram revisited.

Relationships among O2 uptake (VO2), heart rate, and work rate during constant-load submaximal cycle ergometry and ramp-forced exercise to exhaustion have been studied in core groups of trained (n = 15) and untrained (n = 10), 20- to 29-yr-old males. A signal aim was to improve on the accuracy of the 1954 Astrand-Ryhming (A-R) nomogram predicting maximum aerobic power from heart rate elevation at submaximum work rates. A new nomogram has been developed based on a linear relationship, established in experimental groups, between VO2 and delta HR, the latter being defined as the elevation of exercise heart rate above that reached during zero-load pedaling at 90 rpm. The delta HR variable used in a nomogram linking it and submaximum VO2 (either derived by calculation from the concomitant steady-state work rate or measured directly from respiratory gas analysis) successfully differentiated maximum aerobic power of trained from untrained subjects in core groups whose different abilities could not otherwise be distinguished by the A-R nomogram itself. In a validation group of trained (n = 5), untrained (n = 5), and moderately trained (n = 4) 20- to 29-yr-old males, the correlation measured between VO2max values and those predicted from the new nomogram was significantly better (r = 0.98) (P less than 0.05) than predictions made from the A-R nomogram (r = 0.80).

Adult↗

PubMed1996

Heparin administration via nomogram versus a standard approach in venous and arterial thromboembolic disease.

To determine whether heparin administered by continuous intravenous infusion using a nomogram is superior to a random dosing scheme, we performed a prospective, randomized comparative trial in 161 patients. Patients were prospectively randomized to one of three groups. Group I received an intravenous bolus of 5000 IU of heparin followed by heparin administration according to a modification of a previously published nomogram. Group II patients received a 5000 IU intravenous bolus of heparin followed by continuous intravenous heparin infusion with dosage adjustment at the discretion of the treating physician. Group III patients received a continuous intravenous heparin infusion with dosage adjustments at the discretion of the treating physician without the prior administration of a bolus dose. Activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT) was obtained at baseline, 6 h after each heparin dose adjustment and every morning. The mean percent of each patient's APTTs in the subtherapeutic range (< 50 sec) over the course of treatment was 9% for group I and 24% for groups II and III, p = 0.0001. The three groups had a similar percentage of each patient's APTTs within the therapeutic range (50-80 sec). There was a larger percentage of APTTs > 80 sec in group I (46%) compared to group II (31%) or group III (32%), p = 0.01. There were no clinically recurrent deep venous thrombi or arterial thromboemboli in any of the groups. Two patients had documented pulmonary emboli during heparin therapy (one in group I; one in group II). There was no difference in the complication rates of heparin therapy or the need for blood transfusions among the three groups. Patients randomized to the heparin nomogram (group I) achieved an APTT > 50 sec more frequently than patients in the other two groups. Overall, fewer patients in the nomogram group were subtherapeutic, and, when APTT levels fell in the subtherapeutic range, the nomogram restored APTTs to the therapeutic range faster than the standard methods. The heparin nomogram was clearly more effective as a method of heparin dosing than standard methods of anticoagulation dosing.

Aged↗

PubMed2002

Nomogram for overall survival of patients with progressive metastatic prostate cancer after castration.

PURPOSE: To develop a pretreatment prognostic model for survival of patients with progressive metastatic prostate cancer after castration using parameters that are measured during routine clinical management. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Pretreatment clinical and biochemical determinants from 409 patients enrolled onto 19 consecutive therapeutic protocols from June 1989 through January 2000 were evaluated. The factors selected were age, Karnofsky performance status (KPS), hemoglobin (HGB), prostate-specific antigen (PSA), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), alkaline phosphatase (ALK), and albumin. These factors were combined in an accelerated failure time regression model to produce a nomogram to predict median, 1-year, and 2-year survival. The nomogram was validated internally and externally using data from a multicenter randomized trial of suramin plus hydrocortisone versus hydrocortisone alone. RESULTS: The median survival of the entire group was 15.8 months (range, 0.9 to 77.8 months); 87% have died. In multivariable analysis, KPS, HGB, ALK, albumin, and LDH were significantly associated with survival (P <.05), whereas age and PSA were not. All seven factors were included in the nomogram. When applied to the external validation data set, the nomogram achieved a concordance index of 0.67. Calibration plots suggested that the nomogram was well calibrated for all predictions. CONCLUSION: A nomogram derived from pretreatment parameters that are measured on a routine basis was constructed. It can be used to predict the median, 1-year, and 2-year survival of patients with progressive castrate metastatic disease with reasonable accuracy. The information is useful to assess prognosis, guide treatment selection, and design clinical trials.

Adult↗

PubMed2003

Postoperative nomogram for disease-specific survival after an R0 resection for gastric carcinoma.

PURPOSE: Few published studies have addressed individual patient risk after R0 resection for gastric cancer. We developed and internally validated a nomogram that combines these factors to predict the probability of 5-year gastric cancer-specific survival on the basis of 1,039 patients treated at a single institution. METHODS: Nomogram predictor variables included age, sex, primary site (distal one-third, middle one-third, gastroesophageal junction, and proximal one-third), Lauren histotype (diffuse, intestinal, mixed), number of positive lymph nodes resected, number of negative lymph nodes resected, and depth of invasion. Death as a result of gastric cancer was the predicted end point. The concordance index was used as an accuracy measure, with bootstrapping to correct for optimistic bias. Calibration plots were constructed. RESULTS: Gastric cancer-specific survival at 5 years was 50%. A nomogram was constructed on the basis of a Cox regression model. The bootstrap-corrected concordance index was 0.80. When compared with the predictive ability of American Joint Committee on Cancer stage, the nomogram discrimination was superior (P <.001). Nomogram calibration appeared to be excellent. CONCLUSION: A nomogram was developed to predict 5-year disease-specific survival after R0 resection for gastric cancer. This tool should be useful for patient counseling, follow-up scheduling, and clinical trial eligibility determination.

Adult↗

PubMed2003

Pretreatment nomogram that predicts 5-year probability of metastasis following three-dimensional conformal radiation therapy for localized prostate cancer.

PURPOSE: There are several nomograms for the patient considering radiation therapy for clinically localized prostate cancer. Because of the questionable clinical implications of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) recurrence, its use as an end point has been criticized in several of these nomograms. The goal of this study was to create and to externally validate a nomogram for predicting the probability that a patient will develop metastasis within 5 years after three-dimensional conformal radiation therapy (CRT). PATIENTS AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective, nonrandomized analysis of 1,677 patients treated with three-dimensional CRT at Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) from 1988 to 2000. Clinical parameters examined were pretreatment PSA level, clinical stage, and biopsy Gleason sum. Patients were followed until their deaths, and the time at which they developed metastasis was noted. A nomogram for predicting the 5-year probability of developing metastasis was constructed from the MSKCC cohort and validated using the Cleveland Clinic series of 1,626 patients. RESULTS: After three-dimensional CRT, 159 patients developed metastasis. At 5 years, 11% of patients experienced metastasis by cumulative incidence analysis (95% CI, 9% to 13%). A nomogram constructed from the data gathered from these men showed an excellent ability to discriminate among patients in an external validation data set, as shown by a concordance index of 0.81. CONCLUSION: A nomogram with reasonable accuracy and discrimination has been constructed and validated using an external data set to predict the probability that a patient will experience metastasis within 5 years after three-dimensional CRT.

Adenocarcinoma↗

PubMed2005

Postoperative nomogram predicting the 10-year probability of prostate cancer recurrence after radical prostatectomy.

PURPOSE: A postoperative nomogram for prostate cancer recurrence after radical prostatectomy (RP) has been independently validated as accurate and discriminating. We have updated the nomogram by extending the predictions to 10 years after RP and have enabled the nomogram predictions to be adjusted for the disease-free interval that a patient has maintained after RP. METHODS: Cox regression analysis was used to model the clinical information for 1,881 patients who underwent RP for clinically-localized prostate cancer by two high-volume surgeons. The model was externally validated separately on two independent cohorts of 1,782 patients and 1,357 patients, respectively. Disease progression was defined as a rising prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, clinical progression, radiotherapy more than 12 months postoperatively, or initiation of systemic therapy. RESULTS: The 10-year progression-free probability for the modeling set was 79% (95% CI, 75% to 82%). Significant variables in the multivariable model included PSA (P = .002), primary (P < .0001) and secondary Gleason grade (P = .0006), extracapsular extension (P < .0001), positive surgical margins (P = .028), seminal vesicle invasion (P < .0001), lymph node involvement (P = .030), treatment year (P = .008), and adjuvant radiotherapy (P = .046). The concordance index of the nomogram when applied to the independent validation sets was 0.81 and 0.79. CONCLUSION: We have developed and validated as a robust predictive model an enhanced postoperative nomogram for prostate cancer recurrence after RP. Unique to predictive models, the nomogram predictions can be adjusted for the disease-free interval that a patient has achieved after RP.

Adult↗