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Prognostic value of Y deletion analysis: what is the clinical prognostic value of Y chromosome microdeletion analysis?

In many centres, Y chromosome deletion analysis is still not performed routinely and if so, the results are used for genetic counselling but are not considered as having a useful prognostic value. The type of deletion (AZFa, b or c) has been proposed as a potential prognostic factor for sperm retrieval in men undergoing TESE. AZFc deletions and partial AZFb deletions are associated with sperm retrieval in approximately 50% of cases while in the case of a patient with complete AZFb deletion the probability of finding mature spermatozoa is virtually nil. Therefore the extent and position of a Y microdeletion is important (complete or partial). The prognostic value of Y chromosome deletion analysis in cases of oligozoospermia is important when one considers the progressive decrease of sperm number over time in men with AZFc deletions. Cryo-conservation of spermatozoa in these cases could avoid invasive techniques, such as TESE/ICSI, in the future. Male offspring that are conceived by ICSI or IVF techniques from father with oligozoospermia or azoospermia would also benefit from knowledge of their Y status, since the identification of the genetic defect will render future medical or surgical therapies unnecessary. Y microdeletion screening is therefore important, not only to define the aetiology of spermatogenic failure, but also because it gives precious information for a more appropriate clinical management of both the infertile male and his future male child.

Biological Factors↗

Prognostic factors and prognostic staging system for small cell lung cancer.

This study was performed to assess the prognostic factors and the predictors of long-term (3-year) survival in patients with small cell carcinoma of the lung, accrued in one randomized trial, and to define patient subgroups showing significantly different survivals using recursive partitioning and amalgamation analysis. A total of 300 patients with small cell carcinoma of the lung were entered into a randomized study comparing cyclophosphamide, adriamycin and vincristine (CAV), cisplatin and etoposide (PE) and alternating treatments of CAV and PE. Of these, 286 patients were analysed for the present study of prognostic factors. Multivariate analysis showed that poor performance status (2-3) (P = 0.0001), extensive disease (P = 0.0015) and abnormally elevated serum lactate dehydrogenase (P = 0.0001) and alkaline phosphatase (P = 0.0013) were independently adverse pretreatment prognostic factors. Of limited disease patients, performance status (P = 0.029) and white blood cell count (P = 0.044) had a significant influence on the probability of 3-year disease-free survival. Using recursive partitioning and amalgamation analysis, three classes of similar prognosis were identified: the most favorable class was defined by knowledge of lactate dehydrogenase (normal), performance status (0-1) and serum sodium levels (normal) with median survival time of 16.0 months, and the class with the poorest prognosis was defined by knowledge of lactate dehydrogenase (elevated) and performance status (2-3) (median survival time 6.6 months). The intermediate class had a median survival time of 9.4 months. In conclusion, this subclassification system will be used for the design, implementation and interpretation of clinical studies as well as decision-making in individual patients.

Adult↗

Global gene expression profiling of pleural mesotheliomas: overexpression of aurora kinases and P16/CDKN2A deletion as prognostic factors and critical evaluation of microarray-based prognostic prediction.

Most gene expression profiling studies of mesothelioma have been based on relatively small sample numbers, limiting their statistical power. We did Affymetrix U133A microarray analysis on 99 pleural mesotheliomas, in which multivariate analysis showed advanced-stage, sarcomatous histology and P16/CDKN2A homozygous deletion to be significant independent adverse prognostic factors. Comparison of the expression profiles of epithelioid versus sarcomatous mesotheliomas identified many genes significantly overexpressed among the former, including previously unrecognized ones, such as uroplakins and kallikrein 11, both confirmed by immunohistochemistry. Examination of the gene expression correlates of survival showed that more aggressive mesotheliomas expressed higher levels of Aurora kinases A and B and functionally related genes involved in mitosis and cell cycle control. Independent confirmation of the negative effect of Aurora kinase B was obtained by immunohistochemistry in a separate patient cohort. A role for Aurora kinases in the aggressive behavior of mesotheliomas is of potential clinical interest because of the recent development of small-molecule inhibitors. We then used our data to develop microarray-based predictors of 1 year survival; these achieved a maximal accuracy of 68% in cross-validation. However, this was inferior to prognostic prediction based on standard clinicopathologic variables and P16/CDNK2A status (accuracy, 73%), and adding the microarray model to the latter did not improve overall accuracy. Finally, we evaluated three recently published microarray-based outcome prediction models, but their accuracies ranged from 63% to 67%, consistently lower than reported. Gene expression profiling of mesotheliomas is an important discovery tool, but its power in clinical prognostication has been overestimated.

Adult↗

Prognostic evaluation of nodal diffuse large B cell lymphoma by immunohistochemical profiles with emphasis on CD138 expression as a poor prognostic factor.

Recently diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCLs) was reported to be subdivided into germinal center B-cell-like (GCB) and activated B-cell-like (ABC) subgroups by using cDNA microarray and immunohistochemical markers. Tissue microarray blocks were created from 51 nodal DLBCLs with control tissue. Immunohistochemical staining for the above markers were performed. The median follow-up period was 26 months. Nodal DLBCLs were subclassified into GCB [CD10+ or CD10-/Bcl-6+/MUM1-, n=17 (33%)] and non-GC subgroups [CD10-/Bcl-6- or CD10-/Bcl-6+/MUM1+, n=35 (67%)], and were alternatively subclassified into pattern A [+ for GCB marker only, n=12 (23%)], B [Co-positive for both markers, n=13 (33%)], C [+ for activation marker only, n=18 (35%)], and D [- for both markers, n=9 (17%)]. Upon survival analysis, the GCB groups showed a relatively better survival than non-GC groups (p=0.0748). Also, pattern C (p=0.0055) and CD138+ (p=0.0008) patients had significantly lower survival rates. By multivariate analysis, CD138 expression alone was considered as an independent risk factor (p=0.031). In summary, our results add to the registration of prognostic implications for previously reported DLBCL subgroups. CD138 may play an important role as a poor prognostic marker. By using immunohistochemistry, a prognostically important subclassification of DLBCLs is possible.

Adult↗

Myelodysplastic syndromes: a community hospital-based study of prognostic factors and International Prognostic Scoring System.

Various prognostic factors and the International Prognosis Scoring System (IPSS) were assessed in our community hospital-based retrospective study of 55 cases of myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). All cases were reviewed for clinical, hematologic, histopathologic, and cytogenetic data. The median follow-up was 1.61 years. Twenty patients (36%) were classified as refractory anemia (RA); seven (13%) as refractory anemia with ringed sideroblasts (RARS); 13 (24%) as chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML); 11 (20%) as refractory anemia with excess blasts (RAEB); and four (7%) as refractory anemia with excess blasts in transformation (RAEB-t). Twenty-seven (49%) died during the follow-up period, seven with acute myelogenous leukemia (AML). The median survival was 2.8 years. The variables that showed association with survival by univariate analysis included the absolute neutrophil count, French-American-British (FAB) subtype, percentage of blasts, number of cytopenias, abnormal localization of immature precursors, and IPSS score. When entered into a regression model, IPSS showed a trend towards an association with survival (P 0.09). We conclude that the IPSS can prognostically stratify MDS patients. However, no independent prognostic factor was confirmed in our analysis. Further studies are needed to assess the utility of IPSS.

Aged↗

Multivariate analysis of prognostic factors in CLL: clinical stage, IGVH gene mutational status, and loss or mutation of the p53 gene are independent prognostic factors.

This study evaluates the prognostic significance of genetic abnormalities (detected at or shortly after presentation), clinical stage, lymphocyte morphology, CD38 expression, and IGVH gene status in 205 patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (B-CLL). Deletion of chromosome 11q23, absence of a deletion of chromosome 13q14, atypical lymphocyte morphology, and more than 30% CD38 expression are significantly associated with the presence of unmutated IGVH genes. Advanced stage, male sex, atypical morphology, more than 30% CD38 expression, trisomy 12, deletion of chromosome 11q23, loss or mutation of the p53 gene, and unmutated IGVH genes are all poor prognostic factors in a univariate analysis. However, only 98% or more homology of IGVH genes to the germline sequence, loss or mutation of the p53 gene, and clinical stage retain prognostic significance in a multivariate analysis. The median survival of patients with mutated IGVH genes, unmutated IGVH genes, and loss or mutation of the p53 gene regardless of IGVH gene status is 310, 119, and 47 months, respectively. These data should facilitate the design of new trials for the management of patients presenting with advanced disease or poor prognosis early stage disease.

ADP-ribosyl Cyclase↗

Prognosis in glomerulonephritis. II. Regression analyses of prognostic factors affecting the course of renal function and the mortality in 395 patients. Calculation of a prognostic model. Report from a Copenhagen study group of renal diseases.

The course of the renal function and mortality were analysed in 395 patients with biopsy-proven glomerulonephritis (GN), using Cox's proportional hazards model. Seventeen clinical, biochemical and histopathological parameters were analysed for prognostic information. The patients were grouped according to their serum creatinine levels. Increase in serum creatinine, decrease in serum creatinine, cure and death were used as endpoints for the analysis. Caplan Meyer curves were made for 7 transitions between different groups and the variables were reduced by a step-wise procedure to a final model. Thirteen of the variables considered offered significant prognostic information (p less than 0.05) for at least one of the transitions. Short duration of disease, young age, non-nephritic urinary sediment and preceding streptococcal infection were predictors of cure. Extracapillary, membranoproliferative and unclassifiable GN, old age and arterial hypertension predicted increase in serum creatinine in patients with low serum creatinine, while male sex, short duration of disease and pathological electrocardiogram favoured a further increase in patients with high serum creatinine. A later decrease in serum creatinine was signified by a preceding streptococcal infection, short duration of disease, absence of arterial hypertension and low urinary protein excretion. Death without uremia was predicted by high age, connective tissue disease and extracapillary GN. Using these parameters and the models, it is possible to make a prognostic forecast for the individual GN patient. Examples of such a forecast are described.

Adult↗

Prognostic factors in breast cancer and the development of a prognostic index.

A number of different factors are known to be correlated with survival of patients with breast cancer. Among these are lymph node status, tumour size, oestrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR) and androgen receptor (AR) status. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relative significance of these factors and use this information to construct a prognostic index capable of predicting survival. These factors together with age and menopausal status were studied and correlated with prognosis in 796 women with primary breast cancer. The data were analysed in a stepwise manner by the Cox proportional hazards regression technique. Statistically, greater than 3 nodes involved gave the worst prognosis (P less than 0.001). This was followed by ER if less than 10 fmol/mg cytosol protein (P less than 0.001), PR if less than 10 fmol (P less than 0.01), greater than 0 lymph nodes involved (P less than 0.01) and the number of years over age 65 (P less than 0.01). When these factors were accounted for, tumour size, menopausal status and AR did not significantly improve prediction of survival. The significant factors were incorporated into a prognostic index: I = N + E + P + A, where N = 0 if no nodes involved, 13 (if 1-3 nodes involved and 31 if greater than 3 nodes involved, E = 15 if ER less than 10 fmol, P = 12.5 if PR less than 10 fmol and A = number of years over 65. Using this index five year survival curves were constructed corresponding to groups of patients with widely differing prognoses. Predicted five year survival ranged from 96 to 12 per cent.

Adult↗

Prognostic value of preoperative serum CEA level compared to clinical staging: III. An approach to scoring of prognostic factors in colorectal cancer.

In a clinical study of observed postoperative survival of colorectal cancer patients, we investigated the application of a risk score based on tumor-related prognostic parameters. Six hundred seventy-four patients have been registered for primary surgery of colorectal cancer since 1974 who did not receive further postoperative treatments. The prognostic parameters included operability, tumor extension, and preoperative serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level. The scoring system was based on the average death-rate ratios of subgroups of patients and their age and sex-matched reference groups derived from the general life table of the population of the Federal Republic of Germany. The individual score sums of the patients exhibited score sum ranges which characterized groups of patients with entirely different observed survival. The prediction of individual survival after primary operation was only partly possible. In the plot of individual survivals vs individual score sums, a marginal risk zone was obtained which evidently represents the zone of maximum expected survival of patients who do not receive further postoperative treatment.

Aged↗

Prognostic value of regional cerebral metabolism in patients undergoing dementia evaluation: comparison to a quantifying parameter of subsequent cognitive performance and to prognostic assessment without PET.

It is difficult to accurately forecast the clinical course of many patients presenting with mild cognitive problems. The utility in prognostic evaluation of various parameters of brain structure and function that can now be noninvasively measured remains to be clearly defined. The present work examined the value of regional cerebral metabolism, assessed with positron emission tomography (PET) and [(18)F]fluoro-2-deoxyglucose, in this context. PET scans of 167 patients (mean Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE)=24 of 30 possible points) were classified as being positive or negative for evidence of progressive dementia. Results of scans were compared to patients' subsequent clinical course in general and in particular, to their changes in MMSE scores, for up to 10 years following PET. Data were further stratified according to the predictions of referring physicians based upon clinical assessments that had been performed up until the time of PET. Among those patients for whom a progressive dementing course had been predicted by PET criteria (but not those who were predicted by PET criteria to remain stable) a significant decline in general cognitive performance and MMSE scores occurred in the period following PET. Among those patients predicted by clinical criteria to have a progressive dementing illness, 94% of those with positive PET scans did suffer a progressive decline, while only 25% of those with negative scans progressed (relative risk 3.8). Similarly, among those patients who had been predicted by clinical criteria to remain cognitively stable, 74% of those with positive PET scans nevertheless suffered progressive decline, compared with 4% of those with negative PET scans (relative risk 18.4). These data indicate that evaluation of brain metabolism by PET in appropriately selected patients may improve the accuracy of clinical prognostic assessment.

Aged↗

The prognostic contribution of estrogen and progesterone receptor status to a modified version of the Nottingham Prognostic Index.

The aim of this study was to test the prognostic contribution of estrogen (ER) and progesterone (PgR) receptor status to an index consisting of the number of positive lymph nodes, the mean nuclear area of the breast cancer cells (MNA), and tumour diameter. This index is compared with a Danish index, which includes the same factors but uses histological grade instead of MNA. The Danish index has been developed from the Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI). In the present study of 1629 breast cancer patients the Cox proportional hazard method is used to examine the time-dependency of the index, and to test for interaction between the index and the hormone receptors. The index sorts the patients into groups with low, intermediate, and high risk of dying. Logistic regression analysis is used to report the sensitivity and specificity of the index with and without ER and PgR. Our index gave information comparable to that of the Danish group. However, the information given by our index is time-dependent, its strength being weaker after 5-year of follow-up. PgR and ER add information to high risk patients, but only in the first 5-year period. High risk patients with positive hormone receptors have a prognosis similar to intermediate risk ones. PgR increases the ability of the index to predict breast cancer deaths correctly by 5 percent in high risk patients. In conclusion, PgR and ER act differently in groups of patients with different risk levels when time-dependency is considered. This indicates biological differences in subgroups as defined by the index.

Biomarkers, Tumor↗

Prognostic and biological implications of genetic abnormalities in multiple myeloma undergoing autologous stem cell transplantation: t(4;14) is the most relevant adverse prognostic factor, whereas RB deletion as a unique abnormality is not associated with adverse prognosis.

Fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) has become a powerful technique for prognostic assessment in multiple myeloma (MM). However, the existence of associations between cytogenetic abnormalities compels us to re-assess the value of each abnormality. A total of 260 patients with MM at the time of diagnosis, enrolled in the GEM-2000 Spanish transplant protocol, have been analyzed by FISH in order to ascertain the independent influence on myeloma prognosis of IGH translocations, as well as RB and P53 deletions. Survival analyses showed that patients with t(4;14), RB or P53 deletions had a significantly shorter survival than patients without these abnormalities. However, patients with RB deletions without other abnormalities in FISH analysis, displayed a similar outcome to those patients without genetic changes by FISH (46 vs 54 months, P=0.3). In the multivariate analysis the presence of t(4;14), RB deletion associated with other abnormalities, age >60 years, high proportion of S-phase cells and advanced stage of the disease according to the International Staging System retained their independent prognostic influence. In summary, RB deletion as a sole abnormality does not lead to a shortening in the survival of MM patients, whereas t(4;14) confers the worst prognosis in MM patients treated with high-dose chemotherapy.

Adult↗

FLT3-activating mutations are associated with poor prognostic features in AML at diagnosis but they are not an independent prognostic factor.

FLT3: gene alterations (internal tandem duplications - ITDs - and D835 mutations) are thought to be associated with poor-risk acute myeloid leukemia (AML). However, not all studies confirm this association, so it is still a matter of debate. Moreover, their association with other molecular abnormalities is less studied. We have investigated the presence of FLT3-ITD and D835 mutations in AML patients and their correlation with clinical and biological disease characteristics. The presence of ITD was analyzed in diagnostic samples of 176 AML patients and the D835 mutation in 135 of these patients. In all these patients, the presence of four well-known molecular abnormalities were also simultaneously characterized: PML/RARalpha, AML1/ETO, CBFbeta/MYH11 and MLL rearrangements. In all, 41 (23%) patients harbored FLT3 mutations, with 34 (19.3%) of them positive for the ITD, and seven (5%) positive for the D835 mutation. Of the acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) patients, 16 (27%) showed FLT3 mutations, more frequently in M3 hypogranular cases (62% versus 17%, P=0.001) and cases with the short (bcr3) PML-RARalpha isoform (69%, P=0.002). In contrast, FLT3 was never altered in patients with inv(16), t(8;21) or 11q23 abnormalities. FLT3 mutations were significantly associated with some negative prognostic features at diagnosis (leukocytosis, high blast-cell percentage, and elevated LDH values), but they were not associated with different disease-free or overall survival. Therefore, we confirm a high frequency of FLT3 mutations in APL and in adult AML without recurrent cytogenetic translocations. In addition, they were not found as independent prognostic factors although associated with several adverse features at diagnosis.

Acute Disease↗

Pathological prognostic factors in breast cancer. IV: Should you be a typer or a grader? A comparative study of two histological prognostic features in operable breast carcinoma.

In a study of 1529 patients with primary operable breast carcinoma we have assessed the effect of applying both histological grade and tumour type to determine their comparative value as prognostic factors in human breast cancer. The prognostic group the patient was placed in, based on histological type alone, was less accurate than using grade and type together for many tumours. The importance of performing histological grading of ductal/no special type carcinoma (50% of the women in this series) is confirmed in this series. The 10-year-survival varied from 76% for women with grade 1 carcinoma to 39% for those with grade 3 tumours. Some of the 'special types' of breast carcinoma including tubular, tubulo-lobular, invasive cribriform and grade 1 mucinous carcinomas behaved as would be predicted, with a greater than 80% 10-year-survival in this series. Others, including grade 2 mucinous carcinomas, however, behaved less well with a 60% to 80% 10-year-survival. Indeed, many of the histological tumour types including tubular mixed, ductal/no special type, mixed ductal with special type and lobular carcinomas of classical, solid or mixed types showed a variation in behaviour that could not be predicted by typing alone. Histological grade and tumour type, when used together, more accurately predicted prognosis. In multivariate analysis of a larger group of 2658 cases of primary breast carcinomas (including the 1529 study cases) when histological grade, lymph node status and tumour size were entered, grade was the most important factor in predicting for survival.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Adult↗

Histopathologic prognostic factors in resected adenocarcinomas: is nuclear DNA content prognostic?

BACKGROUND: The pathobiological characteristics of lung adenocarcinoma are still unclear. To identify the factors that may affect the survival of patients undergoing pulmonary resections for adenocarcinoma of the lung, univariate and multivariate analyses were performed for 17 variables of the host, histopathology, nuclear DNA content (NDC), and morphometry of nucleus (nuclear area [NA]) of tumor cells. METHODS: Seventy-two consecutive patients who underwent resection at the National Cancer Center in Tokyo were studied. They consisted of 45 men and 27 women with an average age of 61.7 years (range, 27 to 83 years). For these patients, NDC and NA were prospectively measured by cytofluorometry and morphometry, respectively. For univariate analysis, 17 factors were studied, including age, sex, TNM stage, diameter of the tumor, pleural involvement, degree of differentiation, scar grade, nuclear atypia, mitotic index, histogram pattern of NDC, mean NDC, number of aneuploid stem cell lines, and mean and SD of NA. A multivariate analysis was performed with Cox's regression model for 16 variables. RESULTS: In the univariate analysis, 12 factors were significantly related to postoperative survival, including TNM stage, diameter, pleural involvement, nuclear atypia, mitotic index, mean NA, mean NDC, number of aneuploid stem cell lines, and the DNA histogram pattern. In the multivariate analysis, M, T, and the histogram pattern of NDC were significantly associated with survival while N showed a strong, but not significant, association. CONCLUSIONS: Multivariate analysis of histopathologic prognostic factors indicated that the TNM stage, as well as each component independently, still provided the greatest prognostic value in resected adenocarcinomas of the lung. Among other factors, only NDC significantly affected survival. The importance of NDC measurement should be stressed for predicting the survival after surgical resection more accurately and for selecting patients with a higher risk of recurrence.

Adenocarcinoma↗

Cytogenetic data as a prognostic factor in multiple myeloma patients: involvement of 1p12 region an adverse prognostic factor.

BACKGROUND: Multiple myeloma (MM) is charecterized by great clinical heterogeneity. Among known prognostic factors the cytogenetic abnormalities are thought to be of major importance. The aim of this study was to correlate certain chromosomal abnormalities with immunoglobulin isotype and survival in MM patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Forty-nine Greek MM patients, homogeneously treated with conventional-dose chemotherapy, were cytogenetically studied by direct culture of bone marrow cells and G-banding technique. RESULTS: Twenty-four patients had a normal karyotype while the remaining 25 patients presented numerical and structural abnormalities. Recurrent structural abnormalities were observed. Translocations involving the 14q32 region were observed in 8 cases, while 6 cases exhibited a del(1)(p12). We confirmed the negative impact of chromosomal abnormalities on the overall survival of MM patients and we also showed that t(11;14) had a worse impact on disease outcome as compared to t(14q32) with an unidentified partner chromosome. The presence of del(1) (p12) significantly worsened the prognosis in MM patients. No correlations existed between the association of immunoglobulin isotype with survival or certain chromosomal changes. CONCLUSION: Further studies are indicated at the molecular level to clarify the exact role and the prognostic value of 1p12 involvement in MM patients.

Aged↗

The evaluation of prognostic factors for achieving complete remission and survival in ANLL of adults. The proposition of a prognostic scale.

The retrospective analysis has concerned 323 patients with acute nonlymphocytic leukaemia (ANLL). The comparable patients groups were treated since 1981 according to protocols used by the Polish Acute Leukaemia Group (induction; modified TAD or Adriamycin plus Ara-C, maintenance; rotatingly changed polychemotherapy for 3 years). The prognostic value for achieving complete remission (CR) and survival of 67 pre-treatment factors (42 quantitative and 25 qualitative) was evaluated. The most important 9 parameters were scored according to the prognostic value as follows: age, proportion of blasts in bone marrow, blast count in peripheral blood, morphological subtype, percentage of granulocytes in bone marrow, proportion of blasts with CD-15 antigen, thrombocyte count, spleen/liver enlargement, protein concentration in cerebro-spinal fluid. The scoring system has been elaborated allowing selection of ANLL patients to standard risk group and a high risk group.

Adult↗

[Prognostic usefulness of certain defined indicators for achieving complete remission and survival of ANLL in adults: proposal of a prognostic scale].

Retrospective analysis has included 323 patients with acute nonlymphocytic leukaemia. The comparable patient groups were treated since 1981, according to protocols used by the Polish Acute Leukaemia Group. The prognostic value for achieving complete remission and survival of 67 pre-treatment factors (42 quantitative and 25 qualitative) was evaluated. The most important 9 parameters were scored according to their prognostic value as follows: age, percent of blasts in bone marrow, peripheral blood blast count, morphological subtype, percent of granulocytes in bone marrow, percent of blasts with CD-15 antigen, thrombocyte count, spleen/liver enlargement, CSF protein levels. Proposed scoring system enables classification of ANLL patients to a standard and high risk groups.

Adolescent↗