Hypothesis testing and focusing behavior during concept formation by amnesic Korsakoff patients.
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This study investigated the nature and extent of impairments in the use of hypotheses and cognitive strategies in medicated subjects with idiopathic Parkinson's disease (PD) and matched control subjects. PD subjects did not differ from controls in solving one- or two-dimensional discrimination learning problems, but showed impairment on four-dimensional problems which did not appear to be attributable to memory deficits. They achieved fewer correct solutions, used fewer hypotheses, and were less likely to use appropriate lose-shift strategies following negative feedback. The pattern of findings was similar to those previously reported for subjects with frontal lobe lesions.
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Hypotheses concerning the evolutionary relationships between "Q-type" photosynthetic reaction centres are tested using amino acid parsimony analysis of subunit sequences and an alignment based on dot matrix comparisons. Strong evidence is found for independent gene duplications having produced the L and M subunits of the photosynthetic purple bacterial reaction centre and D1 and D2 of Photosystem-II. Much support is also found for the L and M subunits of the green filamentous bacterium Chloroflexus aurantiacus arising from the same gene duplication as the purple bacterial subunits, suggesting there was an ancestral bacterial heterodimeric reaction centre. These conclusions caution against over-extrapolation from the purple bacterial reaction centre to Photosystem-II, and suggest that the latter is more ancient than previously supposed.
Carvedilol (Coreg), a beta- and alpha-blocker and an antioxidant drug, was evaluated for moderate to severe heart failure patients in a program containing four United States and one Australia/New Zealand study. The data were evaluated twice by the Cardiovascular and Renal Drugs Advisory Committee of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). These meetings resulted in opposite decisions by the advisory committee. The crux of the argumentation was the two-positive-trial FDA paradigm. Carvedilol did not meet the usual paradigm because an exercise end point was not statistically different from placebo in three U.S. trials. Most other end points were highly significant, and death, which was monitored across the U.S. program, was different with p < 0.0001. Here we argue that the usual paradigm is very useful but not an absolute principle, that the usual paradigm can sometimes miss the strength of evidence even in the primary end points, and that rational decision making requires on occasion that other evidence must lead to approval. Control of the type I error rate should be taken very seriously, should rarely be violated, and serves the biomedical community well. It is not an absolute principle, however, but rather must be considered in context.
It is difficult to assess hypothetical models in poorly measured domains such as neuroendocrinology. Without a large library of observations to constrain inference, the execution of such incomplete models implies making assumptions. Mutually exclusive assumptions must be kept in separate worlds. We define a general abductive multiple-worlds engine that assesses such models by (i) generating the worlds and (ii) tests if these worlds contain known behaviour. World generation is constrained via the use of relevant envisionment. We describe QCM, a modeling language for compartmental models that can be processed by this inference engine. This tool has been used to find faults in theories published in international refereed journals; i.e. QCM can detect faults which are invisible to other methods. The generality and computational limits of this approach are discussed. In short, this approach is applicable to any representation that can be compiled into an and-or graph, provided the graphs are not too big or too intricate (fanout < 7).
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Traditional inferential statistics require that hypotheses be evaluated at only 1 sample size. That is, researchers must choose how many participants will be included in a study before conducting analyses; they are not allowed to add data if initial results are not significant. This requirement forces researchers to choose among including more participants than necessary, risking inconclusive results, or violating the requirement by adding participants. This study presents a more flexible approach, called data monitoring, that allows repeating an analysis as the sample increases. First, the cost of the uncorrected data monitoring that researchers sometimes do is estimated. Second, the correction that is needed to allow data monitoring while holding an overall alpha at a desired level is estimated. Third, the power of data monitoring is compared with traditional approaches. This study also provides an example of the use of data monitoring. At least in some circumstances, data monitoring can reduce Type II error or the number of participants needed without sacrificing Type I error.
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The bootstrap computer-intensive statistical technique is frequently applied to statistical analyses of phylogenetic trees. The widely used rule that a group is supported significantly if it appears in at least 95% of bootstrap trees is conservative in most situations. This paper describes three ways of using the bootstrap to carry out statistical inference on phylogenies. The first method tests whether there is nonrandom support for a single group or tree. The second method compares the support for two groups or trees. The third method tests whether a single group or tree has better support than the set of all possible alternatives; this may be a replacement for the "95% rule." These tests generally require fewer bootstrap trees to be estimated than do other methods of bootstrapping phylogenies. A simple, sequential statistical method can be used to increase the efficiency further. These methods can be applied to tests of multiple hypotheses about a single phylogeny. Parsimony analyses of 5S rRNA sequences of plants and cluster analyses of randomly amplified polymorphic DNA bands in three pathotypes of the cereal eyespot fungus are used as illustrative examples. The tests can be used to analyze dendrograms in subjects other than taxonomy.
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