SEARCH · PubMed Health

Results for “Predictors”

Explore indexed PubMed citations for clinical trials, systematic reviews and public health research. Read source abstracts and follow each citation to its original PubMed record.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 919 records · Page 51Linked to original sources

PubMed2001

Gender and other survival predictors in patients with metastatic melanoma on Southwest Oncology Group trials.

BACKGROUND: Some studies have suggested that women with metastatic malignant melanoma have a better survival rate than men. However, little is known about the effect of gender on survival in combination with other clinical variables and treatment variables. Thus, an analysis of 813 eligible patients from 15 consecutive Southwest Oncology Group (SWOG) Phase II or III trials evaluating chemotherapy or chemoimmunotherapy for metastatic melanoma was performed. METHODS: A multivariate Cox regression model was used. RESULTS: Poor performance status (P < 0.001), more organ sites with metastases (OSM) (P < 0.001), liver involvement (P < 0.001), and nonliver visceral involvement (P = 0.01) were highly significant predictors of worse survival, whereas the disease free interval (P = 0.08) had borderline significance. After adjustment for all factors, there was no difference in overall survival between men and women (P = 0.19). Women had a longer disease free interval (P = 0.003) and fewer OSM (P = 0.004) at study registration than men. CONCLUSIONS: The current study found that performance status, OSM, and type of visceral involvement were independent predictors of survival in patients with metastic malignant melanoma and should be used as stratification factors in future Phase III trials. However, the current study also found that gender did not appear to be a significant independent predictor of survival for this stage of disease. A longer disease free interval from initial diagnosis and fewer OSMs may partly explain the improved outcome reported for women in selected trials. The study concluded that further investigation of the biologic differences at early stage diagnosis should be undertaken to determine whether women truly have a different pace of disease progression and a different metastatic pattern.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2000

Predictors of chronic disability in injured workers: a systematic literature synthesis.

BACKGROUND: Loss of productive life among injured workers potentially could be prevented by clearer knowledge of disability risk factors. Despite the number of studies that have examined predictors of disability, there have been no systematic literature reviews integrating multiple risk factor domains. Such a synthesis could help to define important gaps in knowledge, inform future study designs most likely to successfully address these gaps, and highlight the importance of secondary (disability) prevention to public health policy. A systematic synthesis of the literature on risk factors for chronic or recurrent disability in injured workers was performed to meet this need. METHODS: Articles were identified through a MEDLINE search, personal file searches, and requests to experts. Information concerning study methods and results was abstracted from 20 articles that met the inclusion criteria (population-based or prospective cohort studies). RESULTS: The most frequently identified predictors of prolonged disability were older age and greater baseline pain and functional disability. Lumbar symptoms, smaller company size, and construction work were significant predictors in several, but not all, studies. Risk factors did not appear to differ for back versus mixed injuries. CONCLUSIONS: Several risk factors for prolonged disability were identified. Research is needed to develop and test multivariate models of worker, workplace, health care, and administrative risk factors for prolonged and recurrent disability in order to refine and target interventions.

Accidents, Occupational↗

PubMed1978

Demographic and clinical characteristics as predictors of readmission: a one-year follow-up.

Follows up an earlier investigation in which demographic and clinical characteristics of psychiatric patients were used to predict readmission within 3 months of discharge. In the initial study, stepwise multiple regression analysis identified six variables as the optimal set of predictors for readmission within 3 months of discharge: type of discharge, number of prior psychiatric hospitalizations, race, suicide attempt within 1 month of admission, subjective report of depression upon admission, and occupational level (R = .452). In the present study the same sample was followed up at 1 year after discharge, and demographic and clinical variables were used to predict readmission within 1 year of discharge. Stepwise multiple regression analysis identified three variables as the optimal set of predictors for readmission within 1 year of discharge: past history of suicidal behavior, subjective report of depression upon admission, and number of prior psychiatric hospitalizations. Changes in predictors as a function of length of follow-up period are considered, and implications of the findings for identifying high-risk readmission candidates are discussed.

Adult↗

PubMed1981

The CPI subscales as predictors of parental coping with childhood leukemia.

Determined the role of the standard CPI subscales, the Summed Coping Scale, and the current Adjustment Rating Scale in prediction of parental coping with leukemia, with 30 mothers and 25 fathers of children with Leukemia. None of the standard CPI subscales was found to be a significant predictor of coping, as measured by a situation-specific instrument, the Family Coping Scale. The Summed Coping Scale and the CARS were significant as predictors for fathers, but not for mothers. It is suggested that coping with the specific situation may be a better predictor of later coping in a similar situation than more global assessments.

Adaptation, Psychological↗

PubMed1988

Predictors of outcome in back surgery candidates.

This study employed a prospective design to examine the value of three demographic, three orthopaedic, and four psychometric variables as predictors of orthopaedic and rehabilitation outcome in 116 Workers' Compensation patients seriously considered for first lumbar surgery, separately for the 74 who eventually did undergo surgery, and the 42 who did not. The two groups differed only with respect to the number of Nonorganic Physical Signs, but a complex pattern of predictive relationships emerged, in which orthopaedic outcome was generally easier to predict than rehabilitation outcome. Among the demographic factors, level of English proficiency was the best predictor and correlated positively with orthopaedic outcome in both surgery and non-surgery cases and with rehabilitation outcome in non-surgery patients. The Nonorganic Physical Signs test emerged as the predictor of choice and correlated with orthopaedic outcome in both groups and with rehabilitation outcome in the non-surgery group. Scale 1 of the MMPI correlated with orthopaedic outcome in both groups and Scale 3 with both orthopaedic and rehabilitation outcome, but only in the non-surgery patients.

Achievement↗

PubMed1998

Predictors of subjective fatigue among individuals with rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: To examine a range of variables potentially associated with rheumatoid arthritis (RA)-related fatigue and to determine which variables best predict subjective fatigue. METHODS: Measures of fatigue, disease activity, pain, and various psychosocial factors were gathered from 73 individuals with RA. Correlations between fatigue and other variables were examined, and the "best" predictors of fatigue were determined with multiple regression analyses. RESULTS: Many of the variables that were significantly correlated with fatigue had a psychosocial character. Moreover, the "best" predictors of increased fatigue were higher levels of pain, more depressive symptoms, and female sex. Longer symptom duration, less perceived adequacy of social support, and less disease activity were significant predictors of fatigue, over and above the "best" model. CONCLUSION: RA-related fatigue appears to be strongly associated with psychosocial variables, apart from disease activity per se. Correspondingly, treatment of fatigue may be enhanced by interventions that address relevant cognitive and behavioral dimensions.

Aged↗

PubMed2004

Predictors of plasma lead among lithographic print shop workers in Mexico City.

BACKGROUND: Plasma lead is considered a biological marker that reflects the fraction of lead in blood that is toxicologically available. We examined the relationship between plasma lead and other biomarkers of lead exposure in 69 lithographic print shop workers. METHODS: Lead was measured in plasma and whole blood (by inductively coupled plasma-magnetic sector mass spectrometry), in bone (by 109Cd X-ray fluorescence), and in hand wipes and occupational air samples. Personal hygiene habits at work were surveyed. RESULTS: Mean age was 47 years and 86% (n=59) were men. Mean lead levels were 0.3 microg/L in plasma, 11.9 microg/dL in blood, 46.7 microg/g in patella, and 27.6 microg/g in tibia. Taken together, two multivariate linear models explained 57% of variability in plasma lead levels. Predictors for the first model were lead in patella (beta = 0.006), blood (beta = 0.008), and hygiene index (beta = -0.11). Predictors for the second model were lead in tibia (beta = 0.008), blood (beta = 0.008), and hygiene index (beta = -0.13). CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that accumulated bone stores and hygiene habits are both significant independent predictors of plasma lead levels in active workers at this print shop.

Air Pollutants, Occupational↗

PubMed2002

Quantitative computed tomography of the lumbar spine, not dual x-ray absorptiometry, is an independent predictor of prevalent vertebral fractures in postmenopausal women with osteopenia receiving long-term glucocorticoid and hormone-replacement therapy.

OBJECTIVE: To determine which measurement of bone mineral density (BMD) predicts vertebral fractures in a cohort of postmenopausal women with glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis. METHODS: We recruited 114 subjects into the study. All had osteopenia of the lumbar spine or hip, as demonstrated by dual x-ray absorptiometry (DXA), and were receiving long-term glucocorticoids and hormone replacement therapy (HRT). Measurements of BMD by DXA of the lumbar spine, hip (and subregions), and forearm (and subregions), quantitative computed tomography (QCT) of the spine and hip (n = 59), and radiographs of the thoracolumbar spine were performed on all subjects to assess prevalent vertebral fractures. Vertebral fracture prevalence, as determined by morphometry, required a >or=20% (or >or=4-mm) loss of vertebral body height. Demographic information was obtained by questionnaire. Multiple regression and classification and regression trees (CART) analyses were used to assess predictors of vertebral fracture. RESULTS: Twenty-six percent of the study subjects had prevalent fractures. BMD of the lumbar spine, total hip and hip subregions, as measured by QCT, but only the lumbar spine and total hip, as measured by DXA, were significantly associated with prevalent vertebral fractures. However, only lumbar spine BMD as measured by QCT was a significant predictor of vertebral fractures. CART analysis showed that a BMD value <0.065 gm/cm(3) was associated with a 7-fold higher risk of fracture than a BMD value >or=0.065 gm/cm(3). CONCLUSION: In postmenopausal women with osteoporosis induced by long-term glucocorticoid treatment who are also receiving HRT, BMD of the lumbar spine as measured by QCT, but not DXA, is an independent predictor of vertebral fractures.

Absorptiometry, Photon↗

PubMed2004

Systemic lupus erythematosus in a multiethnic US cohort (LUMINA): XXII. Predictors of time to the occurrence of initial damage.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the factors predisposing to initial damage in patients in the LUMINA (lupus in minorities: nature versus nurture) cohort, a multiethnic cohort of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in the US. METHODS: One hundred fifty-eight LUMINA patients with no damage at baseline (time 0) according to the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics Damage Index (SDI) and with disease duration > 6 months were followed up for a median of 24 months (range 5-112 months). Damage was assessed from time 0 to the last visit. Predictors of time to initial damage were examined by univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression models. Results were reported as hazard ratios (HRs); HR values > or = 1 indicated a shorter time to initial damage, and values < 1 indicated a longer time. RESULTS: Initial damage occurred in 54 patients (34%), of whom 21 were Hispanics from Texas (39%), 2 were Hispanics from Puerto Rico (4%), 21 were African Americans (39%), and 10 were Caucasians (19%). The most frequently observed initially involved SDI domains (and items) were as follows: renal (primarily proteinuria) in Hispanics from Texas and African Americans, integument (primarily scarring alopecia) in Hispanics from Puerto Rico, and ocular (primarily cataracts) in Caucasians. By multivariable analyses, independent predictors of a shorter time to initial damage were Hispanic ethnicity from Texas (HR 2.11, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.15-3.88), greater disease activity according to the Systemic Lupus Activity Measure (HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.04-1.15), the occurrence of thrombotic events in visceral and/or peripheral veins or arteries (HR 7.66, 95% CI 2.13-27.51), and prednisone at a dosage of < 10 mg/day (HR 2.53, 95% CI 1.15-5.55). Prednisone at a dosage of 10-30 mg/day was found to be protective against the occurrence of initial damage (HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.22-0.96). CONCLUSION: Given that damage is a predictor of further damage, identifying the factors that may herald the occurrence of initial damage has very practical implications for the management of patients with SLE. These results need to be considered when evaluating therapies for SLE.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2006

Predictors of disease course and remission in systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis: significance of early clinical and laboratory features.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the disease course in systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) can be characterized as monophasic, polycyclic, or persistent, and to determine whether early clinical and laboratory characteristics can be used to predict the disease course and time to remission. METHODS: Forty-five children with systemic JIA diagnosed between 1996 and 2000 were followed up with a standardized data collection protocol, including data on clinical and laboratory features (mean followup 4.9 years). Disease was considered inactive if the clinical and laboratory features were normal. Three definitions of remission were applied to classify disease course. Predictors of disease course were evaluated using multiple logistic regression. Predictors of time to remission were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: When applying a definition of remission requiring inactive disease while not receiving any medications for a period of 3 months, 42.2%, 6.7%, and 51.1% of the patients were classified as having monophasic, polycyclic, and persistent disease, respectively. Fever and active arthritis at 3 months (R2 = 0.42, area under the receiver operating characteristics curve [AUC] = 0.76) and an erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) >26 mm/hour and corticosteroid use at 6 months (R2 = 0.49, AUC = 0.92) were predictive of a nonmonophasic course. Absence of active arthritis, an ESR of <26 mm/hour, and no requirement for corticosteroid therapy at 3 and 6 months were predictors of an earlier time to remission. CONCLUSION: The disease course in systemic JIA can be characterized as monophasic, polycyclic, or persistent using a definition of remission requiring 3 months of inactive disease while not receiving any therapy. Features at 3 and 6 months are predictive of the disease course and time to remission.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2006

A prospective population-based study of the predictors of undergoing total joint arthroplasty.

OBJECTIVE: To examine prospectively the predictors of time to total joint arthroplasty (TJA). METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study with a median followup time of 6.1 years. We included participants from an existing population-based cohort of 2,128 individuals, ages 55 years and older with disabling hip and/or knee arthritis and no prior TJA, from 2 regions of Ontario, Canada, 1 urban with low TJA rates and 1 rural with high rates. The main outcome measure was the occurrence of a TJA based on procedure codes in the hospital discharge abstract database. RESULTS: At baseline, the mean age of the patients was 71.5 years, 67.9% had a high school education or higher, 73.4% were women, the mean arthritis severity (Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index [WOMAC]) score was 41.1 (maximum possible score 100), and 20.0% were willing to consider TJA. Greater probability of undergoing TJA was associated with higher (worse) baseline WOMAC scores (hazard ratio [HR] 1.22 per 10-unit increase, P < 0.001), age (compared with age or=82 years; P < 0.05 for all), better health (HR 1.14 per 10-unit increase in Short Form 36 general health survey score, P < 0.001), and willingness to consider TJA (HR 4.92, P < 0.001). When willingness was excluded from the model, education level, but not sex or income, became a significant predictor of TJA receipt. CONCLUSION: Willingness to consider TJA was the strongest predictor of the time to first TJA. Given that previous research indicates that willingness is largely explained by perceptions of the indications for and risks associated with TJA and not disease severity, this finding supports the need for population education about arthritis treatments, including TJA.

Aged↗

PubMed2003

Carotid sinus reactions during carotid artery stenting: predictors, incidence, and influence on clinical outcome.

Carotid sinus reactions (CSR), defined as asystole >/= 3 sec and hypotension (systolic blood pressure </= 90 mm Hg), are frequent events during carotid artery stenting (CAS). Factors predisposing a patient to CSR as well as the impact of CSR on periprocedural complications have not yet been investigated in a prospective manner. The relationship between various clinical, morphologic, and procedural variables and the occurrence of CSR was examined among 105 consecutive patients undergoing successful CAS. After predilatation with a compliant balloon, tubular-slotted stents were used in all patients. No CSR occurred in 63 (60%) patients, whereas CSR developed in 42 (40%) patients. The most common type of CSR was asystole in combination with short-term hypotension without clinical symptoms. The most important predictor of CSR was bifurcation location of carotid stenosis (bifurcation > ostial > isolated internal carotid artery; P < 0.001). The other independent predictors were presence of contralateral stenosis (P < 0.02), length of stenosis (P < 0.03), and balloon-to-artery ratio (P < 0.02). Occurrence of CSR was unrelated to periprocedural cerebral or cardiovascular complications (7.1% vs. 9.5%; NS). We conclude that CSR occurs frequently (40%) during CAS. Bifurcation location of stenosis is the most important predictor of CSR. CSR does not increase the risk of periprocedural complications.

Age Distribution↗

PubMed2003

Incidence and predictors of late total occlusion following coronary stenting.

To determine the incidence and predictors of total occlusion in-stent restenosis, we reviewed three randomized stent vs. stent trials and one stent registry, which provided 955 coronary artery lesions with 6-month angiographic follow-up. Fifteen (1.6%) of the 955 stented lesions were totally occluded at 6-month follow-up. Most patients with total occlusion presented with recurrent angina at the time of repeat angiography (60.0%) while no patient presented with an acute ST segment elevation myocardial infarction. The univariate predictors of total occlusion following elective coronary stenting included stenting for restenosis after a previous percutaneous intervention (P = 0.001), longer stent length (P < 0.001), longer lesion length (P < 0.001), smaller reference vessel diameter (P = 0.022), smaller preprocedure minimum lumen diameter (MLD; P = 0.004), and smaller postprocedure MLD (P = 0.036). Stepwise multiple logistic regression analysis demonstrated that stenting for restenotic lesions (P = 0.004), longer stent length (P < 0.001), and smaller preprocedure MLD (P = 0.012) were independent predictors of total occlusion following coronary stenting.

Angioplasty, Balloon, Coronary↗

PubMed2004

Predictors of vessel remodeling following directional coronary atherectomy.

The purpose of this study was to clarify predictors of vessel remodeling following directional coronary atherectomy (DCA). Negative remodeling after DCA leads to restenosis. However, little is known about the predictors of the vessel remodeling. Serial IVUS was performed in 43 lesions. The vessel remodeling was defined as adaptive if vessel area at follow-up minus postprocedure vessel area was > 0 mm2, or as constrictive if < 0 mm2. Adaptive remodeling occurred in 21 (49%) lesions. Postprocedure percent plaque area was smaller in the adaptive group (32.9% +/- 5.7% vs. 45.5% +/- 8.8%; P < 0.005). At follow-up, vessel area was larger in the adaptive group. However, plaque area was similar between the two groups. As a result, lumen area was larger in the adaptive group. Multivariate analyses showed that postprocedure percent plaque area < 40% was the only predictor of adaptive remodeling (odds ratio, 6.68; P < 0.05).

Adaptation, Physiological↗

PubMed1995

Predictors of short term clinical and angiographic outcome after coronary angioplasty for acute myocardial infarction.

UNLABELLED: Coronary angioplasty is an effective method to achieve myocardial reperfusion in acute myocardial infarction (AMI). We reviewed our experience in 132 patients (pts) who underwent percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA) of a totally occluded infarct-related artery (IRA) within 24 h after the onset of symptoms (mean delay 10 +/- 7 h), in order to identify the predictors of primary success and of major complications. PTCA was successfully performed in 113 patients (86%). Failure without complications occurred in 12 patients (8.4%); untoward events (death and emergency CABG) occurred in seven patients (5.3%). Pts in the failure group were more likely to have cardiogenic shock (53 vs. 8.8%, P < .0005), longer time to reperfusion (15 +/- 6 vs. 9 +/- 6 h, P < .0005), lower ejection fraction (EF) (42 +/- 16 vs. 54 +/- 12%, P < .0005), multivessel disease (74 vs. 43%, P < .03), and a smaller IRA diameter (2.8 +/- 0.6 vs. 3.1 +/- 0.6 mm, P < .03). Sex, age, previous bypass surgery, previous thrombolytic treatment, IRA, and infarct location were similar in both groups. Absence of cardiogenic shock (P < .0001), decreasing time to reperfusion (P < .005) and increasing EF (P < .02) were independent predictors of successful PTCA. Presence of cardiogenic shock (P < .0001) and decreasing EF (< .05) were independent predictors of untoward events. Repeat angiography was performed 24 h after the procedure in the success group. Angiographic deterioration (stenosis > or = 50% and/or TIMI flow grade < or = 1) was present in 18 pts (16%), among whose 5 pts (4.4%) had re-occlusion of the IRA. Pts with early angiographic deterioration were more likely to have a lower IRA diameter (2.8 +/- 0.5 vs. 3.1 +/- 0.6 mm, P < .02). CONCLUSION: Emergency PTCA is an effective method for establishing reperfusion in AMI. Pts with high-risk baseline characteristics show the highest rate of untoward events, but are the most likely to benefit from aggressive reperfusion therapy.

Adult↗

PubMed2005

Angiographic predictors of femoral access site complications: implication for planned percutaneous coronary intervention.

This study examined the relationship between the femoral arteriotomy location and the risk of femoral access site complications after diagnostic and interventional cardiac catheterization procedures. One of the most common complication of cardiac catheterization and percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) involves the vascular access site. The femoral approach is the most frequent site of vascular access during invasive cardiac procedures. This approach is associated with vascular complications, such as retroperitoneal bleeding, which can be life-threatening. If angiographic predictors of retroperitoneal bleeding can be identified, this complication could be avoided. A prospective cohort of 33 patients with femoral access site complications was subgrouped based on the angiographic arteriotomy site. Concurrent patients without complications were randomly selected to form a control group. Study and control patients were compared on presenting risk factors and outcomes. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent predictors for femoral access site complications. Arteriotomy location above the most inferior border of the inferior epigastric artery in patients undergoing PCI was associated with 100% of all retroperitoneal bleeds (P < 0.001). Low, high middle, and high femoral arteriotomy sites were associated with 71% of all vascular access complications. The combination of these locations for the femoral arteriotomy was an independent predictor of adverse vascular access site complications beyond traditional risk factors (odds ratio = 28.7; CI = 6.73-122.40; P < 0.0001). Vascular complications occurred more frequently in patients who were of older age (72 vs. 66 years; P < 0.001). The location of the femoral arteriotomy site assessed by a femoral angiogram is predictive of life-threatening complications. Patients undergoing PCI with an arteriotomy above the most inferior border of the inferior epigastric artery are at an increased risk for retroperitoneal bleeding. This complication may be avoided by risk-stratifying patients prior to intervention with a femoral angiogram.

Aged↗

PubMed1997

Left atrial size is the major predictor of cardiac death and overall clinical outcome in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy: a long-term follow-up study.

HYPOTHESIS: This study was undertaken to determine whether echo-derived left atrial dimension and other echocardiographic, clinical, and hemodynamic parameters detected at the time of entry into the study may influence prognosis in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy during a long-term follow-up. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort analysis of 123 patients with dilated cardiomyopathy. Clinical evaluation, chest x-ray, M-mode and two-dimensional echocardiogram, exercise test, 72-h ambulatory electrocardiogram monitoring, and cardiac catheterization study were performed in all patients. The study was divided into two phases: in the first phase, patients were divided into two groups according to the left atrial size (> or = 45 mm; < 45 mm), with cardiac death as the end point. In the second phase, all patients were further divided into two groups according to their clinical course. A multivariate analysis was performed to determine independent correlated parameters of cardiac mortality and overall clinical outcome. RESULTS: Cardiac mortality rate was 47.9%: 29% in the group without left atrial dilation and 54.3% in the group with dilated left atrium. Multivariate analysis revealed that left atrium > or = 45 mm, New York Heart Association functional classes III/IV, and the presence of one or more episodes of ventricular tachycardia at Holter monitoring were independent predictors of cardiac mortality, while left atrium > or = 45 mm, left ventricular end-diastolic pressure > 17 mmHg, and exercise tolerance < or = 15 min were independent predictors of poor clinical outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Our results revealed that left atrial size is the principal independent predictor of prognosis in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy in that patients with left atrial dilation had an increase in mortality and a worse clinical outcome compared with those without left atrial dilation.

Adult↗

PubMed2000

Aortic atherosclerotic lesions in the thoracic aorta detected by multiplane transesophageal echocardiography as a predictor of coronary artery disease in elderly patients.

BACKGROUND: The presence of atherosclerotic lesions in the thoracic aorta by transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) appears to be a marker for the presence of significant coronary artery disease (CAD) in the general population. HYPOTHESIS: We investigated whether atherosclerotic lesions in the thoracic aorta, by multiplane TEE, could be a marker for CAD in elderly patients. METHODS: In all, 127 patients (67 men, 60 women, aged 68 +/- 13 years), underwent a TEE study with imaging of the thoracic aorta and cardiac catheterization with coronary angiography. The presence of a distinct, linear, or focal, highly echogenic mass protruding into the vessel lumen was the criterion for the diagnosis of atherosclerotic plaque. RESULTS: Atherosclerotic lesions were found in 30 of 36 patients (83.3%) with and in 20 of 91 (22%) without CAD. Of the 41 patients > or = 70 years, atherosclerotic lesions were detected in 14 of 17 (82.3%) with and in 13 of 24 patients (54%) without CAD. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values in this group were 82.3, 46, 52, and 78.6%, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that in patients aged > or = 70 years only advanced atherosclerotic lesions were independent predictors of significant CAD. However, the high negative predictive value of the method indicates that the absence of aortic plaque is a strong predictor of the absence of CAD. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of atherosclerotic lesions in the thoracic aorta is a strong predictor of CAD only in patients < 70 years old. However, the negative predictive value of the method is high for all patients regardless of age.

Aged↗